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South Asia Terrorism Portal

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
[SAIR]

Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 19, No.18, October 26, 2020
 
Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

ASSESSMENT

  • PAKISTAN: Shades of 'Grey'- Ajit Kumar Singh
  • BANGLADESH: CHT: Factional Clashes - S. Binodkumar Singh


PAKISTAN

 

    Print

Shades of 'Grey'
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

 

Marcus Pleyer, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) President, at a virtual press conference held on October 23, 2020,  after the three-day (October 21-23) virtual Plenary meet, declared, “Pakistan remains on our increased monitoring list [Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring], the so-called gray list.” He stated that FATF would consider sending its team for an “on-site visit” to Pakistan, once it completes all 27 items of its action plan, to review progress and determine whether to remove the country from the ‘grey-list’ or not. He, however, pointed out, that there was "another process going on in the Asian Pacific Group [APG]" where Pakistan's case is being evaluated.

When asked if Pakistan still faces the risk of being moved to the FATF’s High-Risk Jurisdictions or ‘black-list’, he stated that though Pakistan has “now completed 21 of 27 items of its action plan... the six outstanding items are very serious deficiencies that still have to be repaired” and Pakistan consequently still faced the risk of being moved to the ‘black-list’.

Meanwhile, in a release on October 23, 2020, FATF, stated, that "as all action plan deadlines have expired, the FATF strongly urges Pakistan to swiftly complete its full action plan by February 2021". In the release it asked  Pakistan to

…continue to work on implementing its action plan to address its strategic deficiencies, including by: (1) demonstrating that law enforcement agencies are identifying and investigating the widest range of TF [terrorist financing] activity and that TF investigations and prosecutions target designated persons and entities, and those acting on behalf or at the direction of the designated persons or entities; (2) demonstrating that TF prosecutions result in effective, proportionate and dissuasive sanctions; (3) demonstrating effective implementation of targeted financial sanctions against all 1267 and 1373 designated terrorists and those acting for or on their behalf, preventing the raising and moving of funds including in relation to NPOs [Non-Profit Organisations], identifying and freezing assets (movable and immovable), and prohibiting access to funds and financial services; and (4) demonstrating enforcement against TFS [Targeted Financial Sanctions] violations, including in relation to NPOs, of administrative and criminal penalties and provincial and federal authorities cooperating on enforcement cases.

Earlier, on September 30, 2020, the APG released its 1st  Follow Up Report (FUR) on Pakistan’s  Mutual Evaluation Report (MER) adopted in October 2019. According to the FUR, out of 40 FATF recommendations, Pakistan was found non-complaint on four recommendations, partially complaint on 25, largely compliant on nine, and compliant on only two recommendations. There are four possible levels of technical compliance: compliant, largely compliant, partially compliant and non-compliant.      

The Report at the end concluded,

The Pakistan FUR was adopted out-of-session by the APG membership in August 2020. In keeping with APG third round procedures, Pakistan will remain in enhanced (expedited) follow-up, and will continue to report back to the APG on progress to strengthen its implementation of AML/CFT [Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism] measures.

There are three categories of follow-up based on mutual evaluation reports: regular, enhanced and enhanced (expedited).

In the MER 2019, which provides a summary of the AML/CFT measures in place in Pakistan at the date of the on-site visit in October 2018 (October 8 to 19), Pakistan was found non-complaint on four recommendations, partially complaint on 26, largely compliant on nine, and compliant on only one recommendation.

In the meantime, Pakistan made several last-minute attempts to come out of the ‘grey-list’. A total of eight  Bills were passed to meet the FATF demand. These include: the Islamabad Capital Territory Waqf Properties Bill, 2020; the Anti-Money Laundering (Second Amendment) Bill, 2020; and the Anti-Terrorism (Third Amendment) Bill 2020; on  September 16, 2020; the Limited Liability Partnership (Amendment) Bill 2020 and the Companies (Amendment) Bill 2020, on August 20, 2020; the Mutual Legal Assistance (Criminal Matter) Bill, 2020, on August 6, 2020; the United Nations Security Council Amendment Bill, 2020 and the Anti-Terrorism Act Amendment Bill, 2020, on July 30. Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi on July 26, 2020, had said that that the Government has prepared eight bills for legislation on anti-money laundering and terror financing with a view for Islamabad to move out from the FATF’s ‘grey-list’.

On September 16, Federal Law Minister Farogh Naseem confirmed that Pakistan had “completed all FATF-related legislation before the deadline… There were no more amendments required for now.” He added that Pakistan would pass new laws or further amend the existing ones if required in future.

Further, the Parliament was informed on September 16 that the Provincial Home Departments have frozen the 964 properties of proscribed organizations under United Nations Security Council (Freezing and Seizure) Order, 2019, issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. These included a total of 611 properties of the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD)/Falah-e-Insaniyat Foundation (FIF) and eight of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) in Punjab; 108 of JuD/FIF and 29 of JeM in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; 80 of JuD/FIF and three of JeM in Sindh and 30 of JUD/FIF and one of JeM in Balochistan; 17 of JuD/FIF and four of JeM in Islamabad Capital Territory; and 61 of JuD/FIF and 12 of JeM in Pakistan occupied Jammu and Kashmir.

On August 18, 2020, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued two Statutory Regulatory Orders to enforce UN Security Council sanctions against hundreds of terrorists, including those of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), JeM, Al-Qaeda, Taliban, Haqqani Network and Islamic State, as well as 93 terrorist groups and entities. The First Statutory Regulatory order listed 88 entities, including terrorist groups. It also included JuD chief Hafiz Saeed, JeM chief Masood Azhar, and Dawood Ibrahim in their individual capacities. The second notification listed prominent Taliban and Haqqani Network leaders such as Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Siraj Haqqani, Bakht Gul and Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai. The two notifications ratified the UN Security’s Council’s call for freezing the assets of the terrorist individuals and terror entities, banning the travel of the terrorist individuals and ensuring that they cannot access any weapons, ammunition and military equipment.

Interestingly, however, a Taliban delegation led by Baradar was invited by Pakistan for talks on August 24, 2020. When it was reported widely that Pakistan has enforced new sanctions, the Foreign Office on August 22, 2020, responded that no new sanctions had been imposed on the individuals and outfits under the two Statutory Regulatory Orders of August 18. The Foreign Office spokesperson, in a clarification argued, “Comprehensive SROs [statutory regulatory orders] are issued from time to time as per routine. Such SROs have been issued in the past to meet global obligations. The last SRO was issued in 2019.” He, however, did not explain why the earlier statutory regulatory orders were not uploaded on the Ministry’s website then, while the August 18, 2020, was uploaded just after its release. Reports indicate that all earlier Statutory Regulatory Orders were uploaded in 2020, clearly establishing the fact that Pakistan is doing all that is possible to formally comply with FATF’s requirements to come out of the ‘grey list’, but is evading any real changes in the freedom of operation it provides to designated terrorist formations and individuals.

Pakistan’s formal compliance is clearly superficial and FATF is rightly of the opinion that Pakistan  needs to do much more to deal with “very serious deficiencies”.

While Pakistan has taken strong measures against domestically-oriented terrorist groups such as the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), it remains a safe haven for terrorist groupings threatening world peace, particularly groups which are directed against India and Afghanistan in what are essentially Pakistan state-backed proxy wars. These terrorist formations continue to enjoy the open support of the Pakistani establishment.

The Inter Service Intelligence’s (ISI)’s direct and present link with Syed Salahuddin, ‘chairman’ of the United Jehad Council and ‘chief’ of Hizbul Mujahideen, has been further reconfirmed. A letter issued to Salahuddin certifies that he is a bona fide official of the Directorate of Intelligence and is working for the Inter Service Intelligence. The letter suggests that he has been "security cleared" and should not be "unnecessarily stopped". The certificate is valid up to December 31, 2020.

Acknowledging the threat, William E. Todd, Nominee to be Ambassador to Pakistan, told the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations on September 22, 2020, that “to truly reduce regional tensions, and rebuild a strong relationship with the United States, Pakistan must take sustained and irreversible action against terrorism”. He said that Pakistan has “committed publicly to ensure terrorists cannot use Pakistani territory to operate” and that it “needs to continue that work.”

While Islamabad has failed again to deceive the FATF, it is believed that it will continue with such efforts in future as well. No real transformation on the ground is expected. FATF will, consequently, have to act with far greater determination if it really wishes to end Pakistan’s direct support to and sponsorship of terrorist groups and activities.

 

 

BANGLADESH

 

    Print

CHT: Factional Clashes
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On October 20, 2020, Ratan Chakma (24), a member of the MN Larma faction of the Parbatya Chattogram Jana Sanghati Samiti (PCJSS–MN Larma) was shot dead by unidentified assailants in the Babupara area of Baghaichari Upazila (Sub-District) in Rangamati District of the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT). PCJSS-MN Larma blamed the members of the Santu Larma faction of the PCJSS (PCJSS-Santu Larma) for the murder.

On October 15, 2020, Sa U Pru Marma, a former Union Parishad (Local Government Body) member, was shot dead in the Rowangchhari Upazila of Bandarban District in CHT. He was a supporter of the PCJSS–MN Larma. Locals said that he might have been a victim of long-standing factional clashes between the PCJSS–MN Larma and PCJSS-Santu Larma.

On October 10, 2020, Bachmong Marma (45), an activist of PCJSS–MN Larma, was shot dead at a tea stall at Jamchhari Bazar under Sadar Upazila in Bandarban District. Locals said that the victim was pulled out of the tea stall and shot dead at point blank range in front of the local people.

CHT is spread across 13,189 square kilometers and consists of three Districts – Rangamati, Khagrachhari and Bandarban. The region experienced two decades of insurgency, between 1977 and 1997, over the ethnic tribals’ demand for autonomy and land rights. More than 6,000 Government soldiers and rebels, as well as 2,500 civilians, were killed during the conflict. Though the insurgency terminated with the signing of the CHT Peace Accord on December 2, 1997, between the Government and the undivided PCJSS led by Jyotirindra Bodhipriya Larmaaka Santu Larma, violence in the region continued due to rivalry between splinter groups of PCJSS.

According to reports, till June 2020, more than 600 people have been killed in CHT in such clashes, since the signing of the Peace Accord in 1997. These include over 200 members of PCJSS-Santu Larma, 312 members of parent United People’s Democratic Force (UPDF), 85 members of the PCJSS–MN Larma, and 10 members of UPDF-Democratic.

After the signing of the Accord in 1997, factionalism became rampant in PCJSS ranks and the group witnessed multiple splits. The first split came in 1997 itself, when Prasit Bikash Khisa formed UPDF-Prasit Khisa, after leaving PCJSS in protest against the Accord. The second split occurred in 2007, when a faction led by Sudha Sindho Khisa formed PCJSS-Reformation. The parent group split again, into PCJSS-MN Larma and PCJSS-Santu Larma, in 2010. In the meantime, UPDF-Prasit Khisa also suffered a split with the formation of UPDF-Democratic, led by Tapan Jyoti Chakma aka Borma aka Jalwa in November 2017. All these splinter groups are currently working as regional political parties. The other regional political parties active in CHT are Somo Adhikar Andolon (SAA) and Parbattya Bangalee Chattra Parishad (PBCP).

Meanwhile, according to locals of the region, all factions are involved in extortion from the wood trade, kitchen markets, cattle markets, transport and others. Intelligence sources indicate that these groups are collecting millions of BDT from people from all walks of life in CHT and are buying weapons with part of this money. According to law enforcement and intelligence sources, all factions have special armed wings, with sophisticated arms like rocket launchers, automatic sniper rifles and heavy machineguns.

On October 13, 2020, two members of the Prasit Khisa faction of the United People's Democratic Front (UPDF-Prasit Khisa) were killed and a Bangladesh Army soldier was injured in a gunfight in Rangamati District's Naniarchar upazila. The incident took place in the Burighat area of the Upazila, when an Army patrol went to the spot to arrest some armed extortionists of UPDF-Prasit Khisa.

Meanwhile, these regional parties are gradually losing control over CHT politics. In the last General Elections held on December 30, 2018, the Awami League won all three constituencies in the CHT. The Awami League-backed candidates also won the majority of the chairman and vice-chairman seats during the Upazila Elections held in five phases on March 10, March 18, March 24, March 31 and June 18, 2019. In the earlier General Elections held on January 5, 2014, PCJSS senior leader Ushatan Talukdar defeated the Awami League-nominated Dipankar Talukder in the Rangmati Hills, though the Awami League bagged the Bandarban and the Khagrachhari seats.

In another sign of their weakening political status, the UPDF-Democratic and PCJSS–MN Larma formed an alliance with the Awami League on December 16, 2018. This created a sense of panic among the other factions of the PCJSS, as they feared losing their long-standing political influence in the area, apprehending that Awami League's increasing influence would further diminish their long-standing sway in CHT. These developments have made the various factions jittery, contributing to escalating tensions and violence between the splinters.

However, Dhaka's failure to implement the 1997 Accord in a timely manner has also provided these groups with the grounds to 'justify' their actions. On December 1, 2019, Jyotirindra Bodhipriya Larma aka Santu Larma, President of PCJSS-Santu Larma, at a press briefing on occasion of the 22nd anniversary of signing the CHT Peace Accord alleged,

Although the government is claiming that they have implemented 48 articles of the accord, the truth is that they have so far implemented 24 articles, with 15 others partially implemented. Some 34 articles are yet to be touched.

There are 72 articles in the CHT Peace Accord.

Echoing similar sentiments, on August 6, 2020, Bangladesh Adivasi Forum General Secretary Sanjeeb Drong asserted,

Awami League in their election manifesto for the 2008 national polls, promised the country's ethnic groups that they will form a land commission to protect the rights of the indigenous people living on plain lands. Even in the manifesto for the last general elections, the ruling party said they will continue their efforts to establish the promised land commission. But nothing official has yet been done regarding the issue.

Land disputes are the main issue in CHT. Even if all the provisions of the CHT Peace Accord are implemented, without a solution to the land disputes, the locals insist, everything else would be meaningless.

The core issue is that Bengali settlers have grabbed land of the indigenous Jumma people. According to the Census of 2011, CHT has a population of around 1.6 million, including around 845 thousand indigenous Jumma people and 752 thousand Bengali Muslim settlers. In 1947, the Jumma population was 98 per cent and Bengali population was around two percent of the total population of CHT. According to the CHT Peace Accord, the land occupied by the Bengali settlers was to be given back to the indigenous Jumma people.

Strong action by the Security Forces against the armed factions is, of course, necessary to contain their violence and restore peace to CHT. However, unless the issues of land disputes and the full implementation of the 1997 Accord are addressed, the tensions and resentment of the indigenous people is likely to translate into periodic upsurges and violence. Dhaka’s fulfilment of its promises to the tribal people of CHT is a necessary condition for an enduring peace.

NEWS BRIEFS
 

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia 
October 19-25, 2020

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

NS

Total

AFGHANISTAN

55
81
180
0
316

INDIA

 

Arunachal Pradesh

0
1
0
0
1

Jammu and Kashmir

0
1
5
0
6

INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)

 

Chhattisgarh

0
0
1
0
1

Jharkhand

1
0
0
0
1

Odisha

1
0
0
0
1

Telengana

1
0
0
0
1

INDIA (Total)

3
2
6
0
11

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

7
0
4
0
11

Sindh

0
0
2
0
2

PAKISTAN (Total)

7
0
6
0
13
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


AFGHANISTAN

180 civilians killed and 375 Injured in past month, says Afghan Ministry of Interior: The Ministry of Interior (MoI) on October 20 said that 180 civilians have been killed and 375 have been injured over the last month in a spate of violence across Afghanistan. Tolo News, October 22, 2020.

Taliban plan to overrun Lashkargah foiled, says Governor Yasin Khan: On October 23, Helmand Governor Yasin Khan said that the Taliban's attempt to overrun Lashkargah city has been foiled and that the security situation in the city will improve. "The enemy's evil plan was to overrun Lashkargah, but we want to assure our people that the plan was failed. This also clarifies that the enemy does not want peace and they want war," the Governor said. Tolo News, October 24, 2020.

NATO presence in Afghanistan conditions-based, says NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg:North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on October 23 said that Afghans' achievements over the last two decades should be preserved. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that the talks in Doha are "fragile" and that the presence of the international forces in the country is conditions-based" Tolo News, October 24, 2020.

'US defeated in Afghanistan', says HeI supremo Gulbuddin Hekmatyar: On October 20, the leader of the Hizb-e-Islami (HeI) party, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, at a press conference said that the United States has been "defeated in Afghanistan," adding that Washington has "no choice except to leave the country. HeI supremo Gulbuddin Hekmatyar made this remark in Islamabad. Tolo News, October 16, 2020.

 
INDIA

3,800 unprovoked ceasefire violations in 2020, says MEA: Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) on October 22 said that Pakistani forces arrayed along the Line of Control (LoC) had carried out "3,800 unprovoked ceasefire violations" in 2020 as part of efforts to push terrorists into Jammu and Kashmir. "This year, till date, Pakistani forces have carried out 3,800 unprovoked ceasefire violations. There have also been attempts to drop arms and ammunition across the LoC in the garb of civilian activities. We have also witnessed that Pakistan's aid and abetment to cross-border terrorism [and] smuggling of arms and narcotic substances has spilled over to the international boundary, including through use of drones and quadcopters," MEA spokesperson Anurag Srivastava said. Hindustan Times, October 23, 2020.

Pakistan is continuing to shelter terror groups, says MEA: Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) on October 22 accused Pakistan of continuing to shelter terror groups and failing to act against UN-designated terrorists such as Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) chief Masood Azhar and Dawood Ibrahim. MEA spokesperson Anurag Srivastava told a weekly news briefing, "As is well known, Pakistan continues to provide safe havens to terrorist entities and individuals and has also not yet taken any action against several terrorist entities and individuals, including those proscribed by the UN Security Council, such as [JeM chief] Masood Azhar, Dawood Ibrahim and (Lashkar-e-Taiba operations commander) Zakir ur Rahman Lakhvi."  Hindustan Times, October 23, 2020.

IAPL a frontal organisation for Maoists, says NIA: The National Investigation Agency (NIA) branded the Indian Association of People's Lawyers (IAPL) as a frontal organisation of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), in its chargesheet in the Elgar Parishad case and said the strong role of many such outfits in furthering the Maoist agenda has come to the fore during investigation. The NIA recorded the statements of two lawyers, one of whom, also a professor at a premier educational institute, resigned from the IAPL in 2018 due to "difference in ideologies". The Ttimes of India, October 17, 2020.

Ninth edition of IS magazine 'The Voice of Hind' calls for jihad: The ninth edition of Islamic State (IS) magazine 'The Voice of Hind' calls for jihad while trying to push its propaganda to incite youth of a certain community in India. According to sources, the security agencies are keeping a tab of the magazine which also reportedly calls to avenge the Babri Mosque demolition. The magazine features photos of the Babri Mosque in an apparent attempt to push the dangerous agenda. India TV, October 21, 2020.

PAKISTAN

3,990 terrorist incidents occurred between January 2015 to September 2020, Federal Ministry of Interior inform Senaten: Federal Ministry of Interior on October 23 presented the details before the Senate (Upper House of National Assembly) regarding the martyred and wounded persons in terrorist incidents occurred between January 2015 and September 2020. In its written response, the Federal Ministry of Interior detailed that the National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA) is compiling data of martyred persons in terrorist incidents since 2015, however, the statistics did not contain details of terrorists killed in different actions. Ary News , October 24, 2020.

FATF kept Pakistan in grey list, urges to complete action plan by February 2021: The Financial Action Task Force (FATF decided to keep the country on its 'grey list' until February 2021, the FATF's President Marcus Pleyer said on October 23. President Marcus Pleyer announced the decision at a virtual press conference held after the body's three-day plenary session came to an end on October 23. Dawn, October 24, 2020.

SRI LANKA

Bringing dual citizen to power is great danger to sovereignty of country, says UNP Deputy Leader Ruwan Wijewardene: The Deputy Leader of the United National Party (UNP) Ruwan Wijewardene at a media briefing held at the Sirikotha party headquarters on October 22 said that bringing a dual citizen to power is a great danger to sovereignty of the country. Pointing out that there is no democracy is active in the current Parliament, Ruwan said the UNP with the people is ready to take the fight to the street against the 20th Amendment, which gives parliamentary power to an individual. Colombo Page, October 24, 2020.

Sufficient evidence to prove LTTE remnants working to incite violence and destabilise country, says Foreign Ministry: Commenting on the appeal on the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) proscription in UK, in a statement issued by the Foreign Ministry of Sri Lanka on October 22 said that it has sufficient evidence to prove that the remnants of the LTTE and groups aligned with its terrorist ideology are active in foreign countries, working to incite violence and destabilise the country. The statement said Sri Lanka has been made aware of the Open Judgement by the Proscribed Organisations Appeals Commission (POAC) of the United Kingdom dated October 21, 2020. Daily Mirror, October 23, 2020.

20th Amendment to Constitution passed granting more powers to President: Parliament on October 22 passed the 20th Amendment to the Constitution with a two-third majority granting more powers to the Executive President. All ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) parliamentarians and Members of Parliament (MPs) from several political parties supporting the main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), including its national list MP Diana Gamage and MPs of Sri Lanka Muslim Congress, voted in favour of the Bill. With 157 votes in favour and 64 votes against, the motion was passed by more than two-thirds. Colombo Page, October 23, 2020.

For assessments on other South Asian countries and for daily news updates on terrorism visit
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The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

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