South Asia Terrorism Portal
Gilgit-Baltistan: The 'Fifth Province' Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
Speaking at a webinar on 'Rhetoric vs Reality: Comparing Human Rights & Development in J&K [Jammu and Kashmir] and PoJK-G-B [Pakistan occupied Jammu and Kashmir-Gilgit-Baltistan]', on January 29, 2021, the London-based Pakistan-origin human rights activist Arif Ajakia observed,
Several other activists of the region had, in the past, raised the issue of demographic engineering. Pakistan has deceitfully changed the population profile of the region, settling people from other Provinces that were supportive of Islamabad's agenda. The region, where the Shias, speaking a range of local languages, were an overwhelming majority, is now dominated by Urdu and Punjabi speaking Sunnis.
All this was done to impose a vice-like grip on the region, where indigenous inhabitants have always opposed the Pakistani State for its forced annexation of the region and ill-treatment of the local population.
Meanwhile, an official notification declaring election to the Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly was issued on September 23, 2020. According to the notification, November 15, 2020, was declared the poll day. The elections, which were to be held on August 18, 2020, had been postponed on July 11, 2020, due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Soon after the announcement of the elections, massive protests took place opposing the exercise. To pacify the protests and ensure that the elections could be held without major hurdles, Islamabad assured the protestors that political prisoners would be released within two months. Later, one of the prisoners, Baba Jan, the most popular leader in the region, who was serving a life sentence in prison for his alleged role in inciting violence in 2010, was released on November 27, 2020.
Meanwhile, to tighten the stranglehold over the region, Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan announced the grant of provisional-provincial status to Gilgit-Baltistan on November 1, 2020. This change of status, he argued, “was a long-standing demand of the people of the region.” The ‘provisional-provincial’ status was a necessity, as the Government does not have the 2/3rd majority in the Parliament required for the constitutional amendment to make Gilgit-Baltistan the country’s fifth province.
People in the region came out onto the streets, protesting against Islamabad’s machinations to alter the status of the region. They alleged that this was being done to appease China, which has been exerting increasing pressure on Pakistan to provide legal cover to the USD 62 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in the Gilgit-Baltistan region. The security of the Corridor continues to be worrisome for China, as Beijing increases its economic stakes in Gilgit–Baltistan.
Gilgit-Baltistan, formerly Northern Areas, was earlier governed with limited autonomy, by the “Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self-Governance Order of 2009.”
Nevertheless, the Army helped the Federal Government conduct ‘peaceful elections’ on November 15, 2020 [elections for one seat were held on November 22], and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) emerged victorious. PTI won 10 seats, followed by independents, 7; Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP), 3; Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, 2; and one each to the Jamiat-Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl and Majlis Wahdatul Muslimeen. PTI later lured six of the seven independently elected candidates to its side, and won another six reserved seats, to raise its strength in the Assembly to 22 out of a total of 33 seats — 24 of which are contested through direct elections; six reserved for women, and three reserved for technocrats and professionals. Barrister Khaild Khurshid of PTI was elected as the Chief Minister on November 30, 2020, and sworn-in on December 2.
As expected, there were allegations of large scale rigging in favor of the PTI. Massive protests broke out in the region. PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, addressing protestors, during one of these protests declared, “your mandate has been stolen. The votes of Gilgit-Baltistan have been stolen."
In December 2020, protests also broke out in the Danyor District as the new government demolished several houses and properties in the region. It is reported that the houses and shops were demolished to pave the way for CPEC.
Moreover, in order to crush any further momentum of the protests in the region, the Federal Government decided to send additional troops to Gilgit-Baltistan. Commenting on the development, PoK activist, Amjad Ayub Mirza, stated, on December 12, 2020, “Pakistan wants to convert Gilgit Baltistan into a military cantonment.”
In reality, the region has long been a military cantonment and boots on the ground have been used to suppress the genuine demands of the people. The federal government continues to overlook the demands for providing basic facilities to the people of the region.
For instance, on November 12, 2020, students of Karakoram International University held a massive protest in Gilgit against the discontinuation of the Prime Minister's Fee Reimbursement Scheme. The scheme was introduced in 2011 for the students from the Least Developed Areas but discontinued two years ago without any prior notice. They threatened to boycott the Assembly elections on November 15. One of the student protesters complained,
On January 6, 2021, a protest broke out after an under-construction engineering department of the Karakoram International University was set on fire by some unknown persons. An unnamed teacher of the University disclosed,
Another teacher said,
Karakoram International University is the only University in the entire Gilgit-Baltistan region, which has a population of 2.2 million. In contrast, there are more than 10 universities in 'Azad Jammu and Kashmir', which has the current population of just over four million.
The region lacks healthcare facilities as well. According to a July 22, 2018, report, in a letter to the UNHRC, activist Sher Nadir Shahi had noted,
More recently, on June 15, 2020, health professionals in Gilgit staged a protest sit-in demanding, among other things, construction of 100-bed hospitals in each of the 14 districts of Gilgit-Baltistan, and payment of salaries to health professionals comparable to other parts of the country.
The region also faces an acute power shortage. Protests against power outages are rampant. Most recently, in December 2020, a transmission tower was set on fire by locals in Gilgit-Baltistan who complained that it was of no use, as the region was not getting any power. One of the protestors complained, "There's no electricity here for 18 hours, almost daily.” They added that the electricity crisis was deepening day by day, not only affecting normal lives, but also their health and employment.
Instead of dealing with these demands, Islamabad core interest in the region is to help China complete its CPEC projects, which the locals strongly believe will be used for further exploitation of the region, even as little or no benefit accrues to the region. The locals fear that their land will be taken away, and their employment opportunities will shrink further as more Chinese as well as people from other areas are settled in the region. There is also justifiable apprehension that the project will have adverse impact on the culture and ecology of the region.
Amir Hussain, a political analyst from the Lower Hunza part of the region, observes,
Similarly, speaking at the 45th Regular Session of the Human Rights Council, PoK activist Amjad Ayub Mirza, argued, on September 17, 2020,
Indeed, on September 18, 2020, people in Chilas organised a protest against non-payment of compensation for the land acquired for the construction of the Diamer Bhasha Dam. Earlier, on September 9 and 11, people in Diamer had held demonstrations asserting their claim on jobs and opposing the inadequate employment of local youth.
Meanwhile, according to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Gilgit-Baltistan accounted for five terrorism-linked fatalities in 2020. On July 28, 2020, five Counter-Terrorism Department personnel were killed and five were injured during an exchange of fire with suspected terrorists in Rohnai Muhallah of Chilas town in Diamer District. Two civilians also sustained injuries.
The last terrorism-linked fatalities in the region before this were registered on August 10, 2018, when unidentified assailants shot dead three Policemen at Kargah checkpost in Gilgit town. Two of the assailants were also killed when the Policemen returned fire.
Since March 6, 2000, when the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) started compiling data on conflict in Pakistan, the region has accounted for a total of 175 fatalities, including 118 civilians, 31 Security Force (SF) personnel and 26 terrorists. Indeed, civilians have bore the brunt of terrorism in the region.
Terrorism-linked violence in the region has remained under check in recent times. However, Gilgit-Baltistan recorded a peak of 60 fatalities (52 civilians and eight SF personnel) in 2005, as well as 41 fatalities (27 civilians, two SF personnel and 12 terrorists) in 2012. Crucially, the region continues to serve as a safe haven for various terrorist groupings.
Out of around 81 banned terrorist formations in Pakistan, several operate out of and in the PoK region. These include domestically oriented Sunni extremist outfits such as the Ahl-e-Sunnat-wal-Jamaat (ASWJ), the front organisation of the Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ). As SAIR had noted earlier Islamabad has turned PoK – including both 'Azad Kashmir' and Gilgit-Baltistan – into a hub of Islamist extremism and terrorism since the 1990s. Militant groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), and many others have been facilitated to create bases and training camps in the region.
Given these realities, Pakistan’s effort to crush all opposition and complete the process of annexing the Gilgit-Baltistan region with ‘legal cover’ can only intensify the processes of demographic engineering, feeding the apprehensions and anger of the indigenous population.
Bihar: Visible Decline Indrajit Sharma Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On February 11, 2021, a Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadre, identified as Mansa Kora, was killed in an exchange of fire with the Security Forces (SFs) in the Cheraun Korasi Forest under the Chananpur Police Station limits in the Lakhisarai District of Bihar. An INSAS rifle and magazine, a hand grenade, and 236 live cartridges were recovered from the encounter site.
This is the sole fatality recorded in the State in Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-linked violence in the current year, thus far (data till February 22, 2021).
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Bihar recorded at least 15 fatalities, including 10 civilians and five Maoists, in LWE-linked violence in 2020. There was a total of 21 fatalities, including 13 civilians, one SF trooper and seven Maoists, in 2019. The data thus reflected a decline of 28.57 per cent in overall fatalities in LWE-linked violence in the State.
The number of total LWE-linked incidents came down from 64 in 2019 to 43 in 2020. Three incidents have been recorded in the current year: one killing incident (mentioned above) and two incidents of arrest (each resulting in one arrest).
Killing incidents fell from 17 in 2019 to six in 2020, the lowest recorded in a year since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on LWE-linked violence. The previous low of eight incidents was recorded in 2015, which had resulted in 10 deaths.
Fatalities in 2020 were recorded in five Districts – Gaya (five), West Champaran (four), Khagaria (three), Munger (two) and Lakhisarai (one). In 2019, seven Districts registered fatalities – Gaya (eight), Lakhisarai (five), Aurangabad (two), Jamui (two), Muzaffarpur (two), Munger (one), Nawada (one).
Sushil Mansingh Khopde, Additional Director General of Police (ADGP), Operations, Bihar, noted, “their [Maoists’] presence is now limited to certain pockets and that too in hilly terrain and forests.”
According to State Police data, over 200 active members of the CPI-Maoist, including some top-ranking leaders carrying cash rewards on their heads, were arrested during Police operations in the State in 2020. This has led to a further decline in Maoist influence in the State.
Nonetheless, the ‘Axis’ region in Bihar remains a zone where the Maoists retain a significant measure of resilience, as well as capacities to operate and inflict violence. The ‘Axis’ region comprises six Districts – Aurangabad, Gaya, Nawada, Jamui, Lakhisarai and Munger. These six districts are among the 90 Districts in 11 States that are listed as LWE-affected, by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA). Further, four of these six Districts (Aurangabad, Gaya, Jamui and Lakhisarai) are among the ‘30 worst Maoist-affected’ Districts, across seven States in the country, according to UMHA.
Further, though Maoist activities had been on the wane in recent years in the 16 Maoist affected Districts of the State – six in ‘Axis region’ and 10 others [Arwal, Banka, East Champaran, Jehanabad, Kaimur, Muzaffarpur, Nalanda, Rohtas, Vaishali, West Champaran] – land mines remain a challenge. Indeed, as reported on October 4, 2020, the Superintendents of Police (SPs) of several Districts had asked Police Headquarters for satellite phones, additional central paramilitary forces and deep search metal detectors to look for landmines during anti-Maoist operations.
Moreover, on October 3, 2020, Manu Maharaaj, the Munger range Deputy Inspector General of Police warned that the Maoists could execute a major incident in Jamui, Munger and Lakhisarai Districts as a result of frustration caused by sustained and prolonged anti-Maoist operations by SFs.
In these circumstances it was expected that better synergy will prevail between the Centre and the State to deal with the menace, and to eradicate it completely.
However, despite State government raising concerns over the withdrawal of two regular Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) battalions from Bihar, the UMHA issued orders on November 18, 2020, for the permanent withdrawal of these two regular battalions from Bihar, to be redeployed in Chhattisgarh. Previously, on May 5, 2019, when the UMHA had proposed the withdrawal of two battalions of CRPF deployed in LWE affected areas in Bihar, the State Government had observed,
Battalion 131 and 153 were removed. Separate companies of Battalion 131 were deployed in Banka, Jamui, Munger and Lakhisarai while separate companies of Battalion 153 were deployed in Gaya and Aurangabad. Bihar had a total of five regular Battalions of CRPF and one COBRA battalion before the November 18, 2020, order.
Moreover, according to Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data, as on January 1, 2020, Bihar continues to reel under significant deficits in Police strength. The State’s Police-population ratio (Policemen per hundred thousand populations) stands at an abysmal 76.20, the lowest among States in the country, and far below the national average of 155.78, which itself is unacceptably low. In absolute terms, there is a vacancy of 47,099 personnel (33.89 per cent) against the sanctioned strength of 1,38,961 in Bihar. Moreover, out of a sanctioned strength of 242 apex Indian Police Service (IPS) Officers in the State, 25 posts (10.33 per cent) remained vacant, considerably weakening the executive direction of the Force.
In recent years, Maoist activities in Bihar have been curtailed to a great extent. However, efforts need to be made to build capacities of the State’s Police machinery. A failure to do so would create impediments to the consolidation of the gains achieved and the establishment of a lasting peace in the State.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia February 15-21, 2021
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
Jharkhand
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
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