South Asia Terrorism Portal

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
[SAIR]

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

AFGHANISTAN

 

   

Afghanistan: Fading Optimisms
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
 

While the present phase of political instability is likely to be resolved sooner rather than later, the probabilities of a complete withdrawal of foreign troops still seem to be low. A strong possibility of the February 29, 2020, deal falling flat exists, with the US being forced to remain engaged in Afghanistan. However, if a complete withdrawal does in fact, take place, it is unlikely that the Taliban will allow the elected Government to remain in power for long.

Afghanistan: Impending Folly, March 9, 2020

In an interview on March 16, 2021, United States (US) President Joe Biden asserted that it would be "tough" to withdraw all US troops from Afghanistan by May 1, 2021:

I'm in the process of making that decision now as to when they'll leave. The fact is that, that was not a very solidly negotiated deal that the president – the former president – worked out. And so, we're in consultation with our allies as well as the government, and that decision's going to be – it's in process now.

He added that "it [complete withdrawal] could happen, but it is tough."

According to the February 29, 2020, Doha deal between the US and the Taliban, US and allied Forces were to be completely withdrawn from Afghanistan by May 1, 2021.

The Taliban has expectedly warned of a “reaction” against any such delay in withdrawal of Forces. Suhail Shaheen, one of the members of the Taliban Negotiation Team in Doha, on March 19, 2021, stated,

We had 18 months of negotiations with Americans, and they agreed that they will withdraw in 14 months. They should leave and if they don’t leave by the end of April that means they continue the violation of the agreement. That violation will not be from our side, but it will be from their side. In that case, if there is an action of course there will be a reaction. The violation will have a reaction.

It is not for the first time that the US has voiced its intent to delay complete withdrawal, in recent past. There have been several such statements and the Taliban has issued warnings immediately almost after each such reiteration by the US. Significantly, the complete withdrawal of foreign troops by April 30, 2021, is one of the primary conditions of the Doha deal, and it seems that it is not going to happen any time soon.

The other major condition is the conduct of successful talks between Afghanistan authorities and the Taliban. However, the talks which began on September 12, 2020, amidst much fanfare, have met a deadlock with no signs of any positive breakthrough, with each of the two sides blaming the other. Nader Nadery, a senior adviser to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, declared,

The Afghan government delegation has been there in full faith and all readiness. If we are real and genuine about ending this war, we should start talking about everything that both sides have put forward. We need to get into the business of talking instead of the blame-game and discuss issues that matter, issues which could prevent the daily loss of lives of our people.

Haji Nazir Ahmadzai, a senior adviser to the Afghan President on the Reconciliation of Political Parties and Tribes, declared "Until the ceasefire is reached, the talks don't work, it's just a waste of time." He added, further,

You see, the Taliban did not implement their promise of a ceasefire, the Taliban escalated the violence, blew up the cities, and escalated the fighting, which is unacceptable [both] to the international community and to the Afghan nation.

Commenting on why the second round of talks was delayed, he asserted that Kabul's delegation had been in Doha, "but unfortunately the Taliban have been on foreign trips and have delayed talks."

The Taliban, meanwhile, argues that “the release of remaining prisoners and end of blacklists are part of the [Doha] agreement that have yet to be implemented,” and that is the reason for the delay. Though the Afghanistan Government has released over 5,000 Taliban prisoners, the Taliban is insisting on the release of another 7,000.

During the first round of talks between September 12, 2020, and December 14, 2020, the two sides agreed (on December 2) to a 21-point code of conduct for the talks and a Joint Working Committee was constituted to prepare the draft agenda for the Intra-Afghan Negotiations. However, the agenda of the talks has still not been decided. While the Taliban is insisting on implementation of an Islamic system and Sharia as the foremost condition, apart from the demand of the release of the remaining prisoners, the Government has asked for a ceasefire and preservation of the Republican structure, democracy and human rights.

Meanwhile, as expected, there has been no respite from violence since the signing of the Doha deal. In one year since the deal, between March 1, 2020, and February 28, 2021, at least 26,953 persons, including 2,815 civilians; 8,414 Security Force (SF) personnel and 15,724 terrorists have been killed in terrorist incidents across Afghanistan. At least 488 fatalities (51 civilians, 44 SF personnel and 393 terrorists) have recorded in March 2021 (data till March 20).

More worryingly, as per the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA)’s annual report released on February 23, 2021, civilian fatalities increased in every quarter through 2020. While the fatalities stood at 564 in first quarter (January-March, 236 fatalities in March alone), they increased to 740 in second, further to 840 in the third, and reached a high of 891 in the last quarter.

As evident, the last quarter, during which the Taliban and the Afghan Government were engaged in direct talks, for the first time ever, witnessed highest civilian fatalities.

On year-on-year basis, as against 22,588 fatalities (3,403 civilians; 7,000 SF personnel and 12,185 terrorists) recorded in 2019, Afghanistan there were 25,065 fatalities (3,035 civilians; 7,810 SF personnel and 14,220 terrorists) in 2020.

Indeed, summing up the impact of the Doha deal, Rahmatullah Andar, spokesman of the National Security Council, observed, on February 28, 2021, that the “agreement has only ensured [Taliban’s] cease-fire with the US, while relations between the Taliban and Afghans remained limited to killings, terror and horror.”

Significantly, while the Taliban increased violence against Afghans, they have completely suspended operations against the US and Allied Forces after the signing of the deal. While this is the only achievement of the deal so far, it is highly unlikely that this will last long, given the surge in US air attacks against Taliban targets in the recent past. In a statement on February 27, the Taliban declared,

We strongly condemn these crimes and bombardments by the American invaders and view it as a clear violation of the Doha agreement that cannot be justified on any grounds. The Islamic Emirate once again calls on the American side that if such irresponsible and agreement violating airstrikes continue, then the Mujahideen of Islamic Emirate also reserve the right to protect their members and the public, and shall take similar actions against foreign forces. In such a case, the American invaders shall be held responsible for all unfortunate consequences.

It is abundantly clear that the February 29, 2020, Doha deal has more or less fallen flat and that the ongoing Doha talks are of little significance.

Not surprisingly, the US has started the process of reviewing of Doha deal. As early as on January 22, 2021, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan declared Washington’s intention to review the deal, including an assessemnt whether the Taliban was living up to its commitments to cut ties with terrorist groups, to reduce violence in Afghanistan, and to engage in meaningful negotiations with the Afghan government and other stakeholders. Several such statements have emerged thereafter.

The Taliban, expectedly, has vehemently opposed any such ‘review’. In a statement on February 28, 2021, the Taliban asserted,

The Doha agreement has created a practical framework for bringing peace and security to Afghanistan. If any other pathway is pursued as a replacement, then it is already doomed to failure.

Meanwhile, with the US more or less failing to achieve the desired goal through the Doha deal and the ongoing Doha talks, Russia is once again making efforts to take on the mantle of a peace broker and replace the US as the ‘pole player’. On March 18, 2021, Moscow hosted a regular meeting of the extended "Troika" comprising representatives of Russia, China and the US, with Pakistan also attending. Later, a joint statement declared, inter alia,

We call on all parties to the conflict in Afghanistan to reduce the level of violence in the country and on the Taliban not to pursue a Spring offensive, so as to avoid further casualties and to create an environment conducive to reaching a negotiated political settlement.

The 'Troika' meetings have earlier been held on March 22, April 25, July 11 and October 25, 2019. Online conferences were held on June 3 and November 30, 2020, as well.

While a lot of hope was raised during and after the Moscow meeting, as positive statements were made from both warring sides (the Afghan Government and the Taliban), the Taliban has refused to promise they would not launch a Spring Offensive. Khairullah Khairkhwa, a member of the Taliban negotiating team in Doha asserted, on March 18,

I started Jihad (holy war) to remove foreign forces from my country and establish an Islamic government and Jihad will continue until we reach that goal through a political agreement.

Again, on March 21, 2021, Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid stated,

There is still a month to go before the formal announcement of our Spring (Offensive). We are waiting to see the progress in the political process. But if negotiations [with the Afghan government and others] do not progress, then we will decide in a month whether to launch the Offensive.

Afghanistan is still far away from achieving any sustainable respite from terror. The high but unrealistic hopes that were raised by some in the aftermath of the much-talked-about Doha deal have more or less yielded to an enveloping gloom.

 

INDIA

 

 

Kerala: Maoists in Flight
Indrajit Sharma
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On March 5, 2021, an interstate coordination committee meeting was convened among the security officials of the border Districts of Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. During the meeting, it was decided to conduct simultaneous combing operations along the respective State’s border areas, vulnerable to Naxalite [Left Wing Extremism, LWE] activities. Significantly, State Assembly Elections are scheduled to be held in Kerala and Tamil Nadu on April 6, 2021.

On February 27, 2021, Teeka Ram Meena, Chief Electoral Officer of Kerala, stated that, though polling for the State Assembly Elections in Kerala would be held from 7 am to 7 pm on April 6, 2021, voting in the Naxalite-hit areas of the State would begin at 7 am and conclude by 6 pm. He added that the Election Commission had identified 298 polling booths in the State situated in the Naxalite-affected areas in five Districts – Kannur, Kozhikode, Palakkad, Malappuram and Wayanad, adding, “Central forces will be deployed at Naxal-affected booths” as well as the “549 critical location booths and 433 vulnerable polling booths” in the State. There will be 40,771 polling stations in the State.

There are 90 Districts in 11 States which are Naxal-affected, according to information laid before Parliament by the Union Minister of State for Home Affairs G. Kishan Reddy on September 21, 2020. Three Districts of Kerala – Palakkad, Malappuram and Wayanad – fall in this category.

Significantly, these three Districts also fall into what is designated as the Kerala-Karnataka-Tamil Nadu (KKT) tri-junction area where the Naxalites [Left Wing Extremists] have for long been engaged in efforts to set up a base.

While the Election Commission and the Security Forces (SFs), in view of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs’ latest assessment as well as continued efforts of Naxalites to gain ground in the KKT region, are not taking any chances and have rightly decided to take all precautionary measures, Kerala remains free of LWE violence.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the State has not recorded any fatality in the civilian and SF categories in LWE-linked violence since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on Naxal violence (data till March 21, 2021). The Naxalites have only been able to execute two violent incidents, both explosions, one in 2014 and the second in 2017, during this entire period. No casualty was reported in these two incidents.

On the other hand, SFs have eliminated at least nine Naxalites during this period, including one in 2020. On November 3, 2020, a Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadre was killed in an encounter between Maoists and an SF patrol team in the forests near Meenmutty in Wayanad District.

45 Maoists have been arrested during this period, including three in 2020.

Though no fatality has been reported thus far in 2021, on January 21, 2021, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) arrested a person, identified as Vijith Vijayan (27), from Kalpetta in Wayanad District in connection with the ‘Pantheerankavu Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) case’ (RC-04/2019/NIA/KOC) dated December 18, 2019. In this case, two persons – Allen Shuhaib and Thwaha Fasal – were arrested by the Kerala Police on November 1, 2019, for allegedly holding a secret Maoist meeting outside a petty shop in Pantheerankavu of Kozhikode District in Kerala. NIA took over the investigation in December 2019 and later filed a charge sheet in the case.

According to a February 21, 2021, report, Police encounters that took place in recent years in Palakkad, Wayanad and Malappuram Districts - considered Maoist strongholds – have resulted in reducing the rebels’ strength. An unnamed senior Police official observed,

…the Maoists are mulling to end their activities in Kerala due to unexpected setbacks faced here and lack of support. The Maoist leaders are planning to retreat from Kerala within five years if the present situation continues.

The official added that a Maoist, T. K. Rajeevan, who was arrested on November 16, 2020, confirmed that the rebels were planning to end the activities in the State.

Over the past years, SFs have done well in tightening their grip over the Maoists’ creeping intrusions into Kerala.

Earlier, as reported on August 22, 2019, after years of adopting a soft approach towards the Maoists, the State Police decided to go on the offensive with their ‘Surrender or Assault’ scheme. Under the scheme, Maoists were given a time frame to surrender, failing which the Police would launch an assault via a series of offensive operations.

Additionally, the Government of Kerala has recently adopted several measures that essentially aim at containing the Maoist attempts to spread their influence in the State. On October 5, 2020, in an effort to boost tourism, the Chief Minister of Kerala, Pinarayi Vijayan announced the construction of a seven kilometers long tunnel connecting Kozhikode and Wayanad Districts, which fall within the KKT tri-junction.

Nevertheless, the Maoists are continuing with their effort to win the support of the people in order to make some inroads, propagating their ideological dogmas through the distribution of pamphlets and posters in several Districts of the State. There were at least five incidents of Maoist poster/pamphlet recoveries in 2020, in addition to four such incidents in 2019.

The Maoist threat in Kerala is at an incipient stage. SF action has blocked any significant consolidation, and such efforts will need to be augmented ahead of the Assembly elections in the State scheduled for April 6, 2021. While the Maoists are clearly at a disadvantage, their venture into the contiguous border regions of the KKT tri-junction are still ongoing, and will need to be countered.

NEWS BRIEFS

2,909 civilians killed in solar year 1399, says AIHRC: Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC) report during the solar year 1399 (March 2020 to March 2021) 2,909 civilians were killed and 5,494 others were injured in security incidents like bombings, car bomb attacks and targeted killings, report Tolo News. The figures show that of those killed, 543 were children and 323 were women. Tolo News, March 22, 2021.

Taliban has no legitimacy for ongoing violence, says President Ashraf Ghani: On March 21, President Ashraf Ghani called on the Taliban to stop violence and said the group has no legitimacy for the ongoing violence. “Who is giving the legitimacy to (the Taliban) kill of people's brothers and sisters. Stop it,” Ghani said, calling on Taliban to “come and accept each other.” Tolo News, March 22, 2021.

Russia, China, the US and Pakistan would not support return of Islamic Emirate system in Afghanistan: On March 17, Russia, China, the US and Pakistan stated that they would not support the return of the Islamic emirate system in Afghanistan. The statement also recognized the will of the Afghan people for peace, called for a reduction in violence from all sides and for the Taliban to not launch a ‘Spring offensive’, and reiterated calls for a negotiated settlement for the conflict. Tolo News, March 19, 2021.

US President Joe Biden said that it will be “tough” for the US to meet a May 1st deadline to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan: United States (US) President Joe Biden said that it will be “tough” for the US to meet a May 1st deadline to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan, but that the complete drawdown won’t take much longer. “That was not a very solidly negotiated deal that the president, the former President, worked out,” Biden said in an interview with ABC News. Tolo News, March 17, 2021.

Taliban’s deputy leader Sirajuddin Haqqani said foreign forces have violated the Doha peace deal over 1,000 times: Sirajuddin Haqqani, the leader of the Haqqani Network and the Taliban’s deputy leader, said that the Taliban has not conducted any attacks against United States (US) forces, but foreign forces have violated the Doha peace deal over 1,000 times. Haqqani also accused US President Joe Biden of deliberately creating an environment of mistrust and warned of severe consequences if the agreement is violated. Tolo News, March 17, 2021.

HuJI-B sets up ‘madrasa’ to train children, say CTTC officials: Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime (CTTC) officials said that Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B) has set up ‘madrasa’ to train children. For this purpose, HuJI-B had taken lease of a piece of land in a remote hilly area of Bandarban after collecting funds from sympathisers. The HuJI-B's ‘operations wing’ head, Mohammad Mainul Islam alias Mahin alias Mithu alias Hasan, used to operate the training activities. The Daily Star, March 21, 2021.

Zero infiltration this year so far, no fresh CFV after fresh Indo-Pak peace agreement, says DGP Dilbag Singh: Jammu and Kashmir Police Director General of Police (DGP), Dilbag Singh, in Srinagar District on March 20, said that so far there has been “zero infiltration” on the Line of Control (LoC) across the Union Territory (UT) while there is no fresh Cease Fire Violation (CFV) after the recent peace agreement between officials of India and Pakistan. Daily Excelsior, March 21, 2021.

Maoists express readiness for peace talks with Chhattisgarh Government, but with conditions: The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) on March 18 expressed its readiness for the peace talks with the Chhattisgarh Government, but laid down three pre-conditions. “We are willing for peace talks for the benefit of the people provided the government first removes the camps of armed forces from the conflict-ridden areas, revoke the ban imposed on the CPI-Maoist, and release our party leaders languishing in jails,” said Vikalp, the spokesperson of ‘Dandakaranya Special Zonal Committee (DKSZC)’ of CPI-Maoist. The New Indian Express, March 19, 2021.

226 terrorists killed in Jammu and Kashmir since 2020, says CRPF Director General Kuldiep Singh: Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) Director General (DG) Kuldiep Singh on March 18 said 226 terrorists were killed during operations in Jammu and Kashmir since 2020, while 296 were apprehended. He also said, stone-pelting incidents in the Kashmir Valley have “reduced drastically”, although they have not stopped completely. Daily Excelsior, March 19, 2021.

UN receives USD 10,000 donation from SFJ: The United Nations (UN) has received a USD 10,000 “donation” from the pro-Khalistan group Sikhs for Justice (SFJ). SFJ is simultaneously lobbying the UN to set up a “commission of inquiry” to investigate alleged mistreatment of farmer protesters in India. The Times of India, March 14, 2021.

CPN-UML passes amended statute of Parliamentary Party: Marxist–Leninist (CPN-UML) has passed the amended statute of its Parliamentary Party, on March 20. The amendment was passed by the CPN-UML's Parliamentary Party meeting held at the official residence of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli in Baluwatar, Kathmandu. The Himalayan Times, March 21, 2021.

NC will form new Government within two weeks, says NC General Secretary Shashanka Koirala: The Nepali Congress (NC) General Secretary Shashanka Koirala talking to the media persons on March 19 claimed that the NC will form new Government within two weeks. Koirala shared that the NC, Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist Centre) and Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP) would forge an alliance to form the new Government. The Himalayan Times, March 20, 2021.

480 persons missing and another 177 persons killed in Balochistan in 2020, reveals HRCB report: The Human Rights Council of Balochistan (HRCB) held a press conference in Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan, on March 17, revealing the details of the “enforced disappearances” and “extrajudicial killings” that were carried out in Balochistan in 2020. The numbers are shocking – 480 individuals were “forcibly disappeared” and 177 were killed and their dead bodies were thrown in the wilderness. The Balochistan Post, March 19, 2021.

President has ordered to implement recommendations of Easter Sunday Commission before April 21, says Education Minister GL Peiris: President has ordered to implement recommendations of Easter Sunday Commission before April 21, says Education Minister GL Peiris Colombo Page, March 16, 2021.