South Asia Terrorism Portal
Jammu and Kashmir: Troubled Peace Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
On April 8-9, 2021, seven terrorists, including Imtiyaz Shah, the chief of Ansar-ul-Gazwat-ul-Hind (AuGH), were killed in two separate encounters in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). In the intervening night of April 7-8, Security Forces (SFs) launched an operation following intelligence inputs that terrorists were hiding inside the Central Jamia Masjid in the Jan Mohalla area of Shopian District. As the terrorists rejected the offer to surrender and opened fire, a gun battle ensued and three terrorists were killed towards the dawn of April 8. Another two terrorists were killed and the Masjid was cleared on April 9. Of the five slain terrorists, two were from Hizb-ul-Mujahedeen (HM), two from AuGH and one from Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). Meanwhile, two terrorists, including the AuGH chief Shah, who had fled from the encounter site during the initial cordon after throwing grenades, were later killed during an encounter in the Nowbugh area of Tral in Pulwama District on April 9.
On April 2, 2021, three terrorists were killed in an encounter with SFs in Pulwama District. Two of the slain terrorists were affiliated with Al-Badr, while the group identity of third was not known.
On March 22, 2021, four LeT terrorists were killed in an encounter in the Munihal area in Shopian District.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 44 terrorists of different outfits have been killed in 2021 (data till April 11). In 2020, J&K accounted for a total of 232 terrorist killings; 163 deaths were recorded in this category in 2019; 271 in 2018; and 220 in 2017. Thus, a total of 906 terrorists have been killed in J&K since 2017.
In 2017, SFs launched 'Operation All-Out', as the Special Operations Group (SoG), an elite anti-insurgency force of the J&K Police set up in 1994, was re-purposed. Each SoG unit was given a list of one or two terrorists they were directed to track and "target single-mindedly." Along with the SoG, other security agencies operating in J&K were also given the names of individual terrorists whom they were to target and neutralize. The focused operations paid rich dividend and most of the senior 'commanders', trainers and 'role models' for terrorists have been eliminated over the last four years. J&K Director General of Police (DGP) Dilbag Singh noted,
Along with the leadership elements - commanders, trainers, role models - the SFs have also eliminated a large number of terrorist cadres, resulting in a decline in overall cadre strength. According to a January 14, 2021, report, there were around 270 active terrorists in J&K, as against an estimated 300 in 2020 and 421 in 2019. The decline in the number of active terrorists is also the result of the fact that the anti-infiltration grid has been strengthened and the number of successful infiltrations has gone down. About 50 militants infiltrated in 2020 as against 138 in 2019, and 143 in 2018. Declining infiltrations have also resulted in a shortage of arms and ammunition.
Moreover, since 2017, strong action has been taken against alleged Over Ground Workers (OGWs) of various terrorist formations. The Police detained around 625 alleged OGWs in J&K in 2020. Most of the OGWs arrested in 2020 were booked under stringent sections of the law, including the Arms Act, for possession of weapons, which increases the possibility of their confinement for longer periods. An unnamed official observed,
These strong anti-terrorism measures have resulted in an improved security situation in J&K.
Civilian fatalities dropped from 42 in 2019 to 33 in 2020. There were 86 fatalities in this category in 2018. Similarly, SF fatalities came down from 78 in 2019 to 56 in 2020. There were 95 fatalities in this category in 2018.
Other parameters of violence also indicate sustained improvement. According to official statistics, there were 244 terrorist incidents in J&K in 2020, down from 594 in 2019 and 614 in 2018. In particular, incidents of explosion dropped from 66 in 2019 to 44 in 2020, and the resultant fatalities fell sharply, from 60 to 10.
The declining curve of violence, however, does not guarantee long-term peace, as almost all the factors which were responsible for the troubles in J&K persist.
On the domestic front, the politics of opportunism and polarization is still in play. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Union Government, despite the assurances it gave on August 5, 2019, at the time of constitutional amendments, and reiterated several times thereafter, that the State Assembly would be reestablished ‘soon’, has made no genuine effort in this direction. In fact, after having failed to achieve results that the party envisaged in the first ever District Development Council (DDC) polls conducted between November 28, 2020, and December 19, 2020, the Government at the Centre seems to have put this agenda on the back burner. Further delay in reestablishing State-level democratic institutions can only serve the interest of forces inimical to peace in J&K. Attempts to directly control J&K from New Delhi may prove disastrous in the long run.
In the meantime, the primary trouble-maker in J&K, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), remains relentless in its efforts to push Kashmir back into the ‘era of turbulence’ of the 1990s and early 2000s. Working in this direction, the Pakistani Army increased the number of ceasefire violations from 3,200 in 2019 to a record 5,133 in 2020. There were 2,140 such violations in 2018. These firings, inter alia, provide cover to or create diversions for infiltrating terrorists from several ‘launch pads’ inside Pakistan occupied Kashmir. According to reports, at any given point of time around 300 trained terrorists are stationed at these launch pads, waiting to cross over.
In the meantime, after Director Generals of Military Operations (DGsMO) level discussions held on February 25, 2021, India and Pakistan in a joint statement asserted that “both sides agreed for strict observance of all agreements, understandings and cease firing along the Line of Control and all other sectors with effect from midnight 24/25 Feb 2021.” Though no ceasefire violation has been reported thereafter, the past record does not suggest that this ceasefire is now permanent. Significantly, in a similar statement released on May 29, 2018, the DGsMO “agreed to fully implement the Ceasefire Understanding of 2003 in letter and spirit forthwith and to ensure that henceforth, the Ceasefire will not be violated by both sides.” The data, however, suggests that the number of such violations more than doubled to 5,133 in 2020, from 2,140 in 2018.
To replenish the depleting 'armoury' of the active terrorists on the ground, Pakistan has started supplying weapons via drones. DGP Dilbag Singh disclosed,
Crucially, past trends indicate, the situation in Kashmir also depends on the situation in Afghanistan. It is not a coincidence that terrorism in Kashmir began during the period of the withdrawal of Soviet Forces from Afghanistan in 1988-89. Pakistan-backed terrorism recorded a sharp surge during the period of the Taliban’s consolidation in Afghanistan and its subsequent assumption of power under the ISI’s patronage. The violence in Kashmir, however, started to decline with the onslaught of ‘war on terror’ in 2001, and continued through 2012. The marginal surge thereafter was the result of politics of the opportunism and polarization, as well as Pakistan’s efforts to take advantages created by the consequent anger. There is reason to believe that, if an ISI-proxy is placed in power in Afghanistan, the ISI will shift focus to Kashmir, creating more chaos.
The possibility of complete withdrawal of international troops from Afghanistan and a collapse of the present regime in Kabul under a Taliban onslaught in the foreseeable future could create an alarming situation for the security establishment in J&K.
The extended phase of dwindling terror in J&K between 2001 and 2012 has been wasted, with the political leadership at the Centre failing to develop outreach programmes to translate pollical acquiescence into goodwill. Nevertheless, if genuine efforts to re-establish the State Assembly and initiate a meaningful political dialogue are introduced without further delay, there are strong possibilities of finding a sustainable solution to this long-festering problem, despite Pakistan’s continuing mischief.
Northeast: Polarised Stability Giriraj Bhattacharjee Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On March 22, 2021, unidentified gunman in camouflage killed three Zeliang tribesmen – Itingwangbe Haikam, Hangyi and Asiambo – in an area between the Peren and Dimapur Districts of Nagaland.
On March 20, 2021, a Dimasa National Liberation Army (DNLA) militant was killed in an encounter with Security Forces (SFs) at Purana Hajong village in the Dima Hasao District of Assam.
On March 16, 2021, SFs killed a militant belonging to the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Reformation (NSCN-R) in an encounter at Motong under the Yatdam circle of Changlang District, Arunachal Pradesh.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 10 insurgency-linked fatalities (five civilians and five militants) have been recorded in the northeast region of India in 2021 (data till April 11, 2021). In addition to the five fatalities in the incidents above, the remaining five fatalities were reported from Assam (two civilian fatalities), Arunachal Pradesh (one militant fatality) and Manipur (one fatality each in the civilian and militant categories).
Through 2020, a total of 27 fatalities (five civilians, five SF personnel and 17 militants) were recorded. 10 of these fatalities were reported from Arunachal Pradesh (one civilian, two SF personnel and seven militants); eight from Assam (three civilians and five militants); seven from Manipur (one civilian, three SF personnel and three militants); and two from Nagaland (both militants).
In 2019, the region recorded 34 fatalities (18 civilians, five SF personnel, and 11 insurgents). 17 of these fatalities were reported from Arunachal Pradesh (11 civilians, three SF personnel and three militants); three from Assam (one civilian and two militants; nine from Manipur (four civilians and five militants); one (civilian) from Meghalaya; and four from Nagaland (one civilian, two SF personnel and one militant).
The northeast region comprises eight states – Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Tripura. Of these, except for Sikkim, the remaining seven have witnessed varying degrees of insurgency. The last fatality in Mizoram was reported on March 28, 2015 and in Tripura on November 17, 2014.
Though Arunachal Pradesh doesn’t have any active indigenous terrorist group, it has recorded highest number of fatalities because Naga groups seek dominance in the Tirap, Longding and Changlang (TLC) Districts, part of their projected ‘Nagalim (Greater Nagaland)’. This has led to clashes between the SFs and the Naga groups, as well as factional clashes between Naga terror outfits.
Meanwhile, the 27 overall fatalities recorded in 2020 were the lowest recorded in a year since 1992. The previous low of 34 was recorded in 2019. Fatalities in the region have been on decline since 2015, when fatalities came down to 269 from 469 in 2014. There were 168 fatalities in 2016, 107 in 2017, and 73 in 2018.
Like overall fatalities, civilian fatalities have been on decline since 2015, when fatalities in this category declined to 64 from 243 in 2014. There were 63 fatalities in 2016, 35 in 2017, 20 in 2018, 18 in 2019 and five in 2020. Thus 2020 recorded the lowest number of civilian fatalities in the region since 1992.
2020 saw five fatalities in the SF category, the same as in 2019, and the lowest recorded in this category since 1992. A previous low of 13 in this category was recorded in 2017, which increased marginally to 15 in 2018. However, terrorist fatalities, which were also on a constant decline since 2015 – 204 in 2014, 163 in 2015, 85 in 2016, 58 in 2017, 38 in 2018 and 11 in 2019 – increased to 17 in 2020. According to the latest data provided by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), SFs arrested 646 insurgents in the region in 2020, in addition to 936 arrested in 2019. There were also 202 incidents of arms recovery in 2020, in addition 219 in 2019.
Other parameters of violence also indicate diminishing capabilities of insurgents in the region. The number of terrorism-linked incidents came down from 640 in 2019 to 389 in 2010, the lowest since March 6, 2000. Incidents of killing dropped from 20 in 2019 to 18 in 2020, again the lowest since March 6, 2000.
Indeed, the overall security situation has improved in the region. One of the primary reasons of the downturn in insurgency is direct engagement with several of the insurgent outfits, who have joined negotiations with the Government under pressure of sustained and effective Counter Insurgency operations. On September 27, 2020, Union Home Minister Amit Shah thus observed,
The Suspension of Operations (SoO)/peace talks with the insurgent groups based in northeast have long been in place. Different Governments have successfully concluded negotiations with several of them leading to agreement and surrender of prominent groups like Bodo Liberation Tigers (BLT) [Link: SAIR-1.31], United People’s Democratic Solidarity (UPDS), Dima Halam Daogah (DHD), National Liberation Front of Tripura-Nyanbashi faction (NLFT-NB), etc.
However, several challenges to peace remain unaddressed.
Though the Union Home Minister claimed that “the issues of the remaining groups will be settled by 2024 by taking along the Chief Ministers of the region”, this is easier said than done. Indeed, the Naga peace talks continue to linger despite several claims of a comprehensive resolution on several occasions since the signing of the Framework Agreement on August 3, 2015. Indeed, on March 3, 2021, National Socialist Council of Nagaland—Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) declared that it would not sign any agreement that is "short of mutual standards agreed upon." NSCN-IM is emphasizing an ‘honourable and acceptable’ solution that incudes a separate Naga flag and constitution, based on a ‘unique Naga History.’
Incidents of extortion, one of the major remaining security issues, continue unabated. Nagaland Governor R. N. Ravi, in his Republic day (January 26, 2021) speech, highlighted the problem, observing:
Earlier, on June 26, 2020, Limasunep Jamir, Inspector General-Range (IGP-Range), Nagaland, disclosed more than 95 per cent of that extortion cases were registered suo-motu, as no formal complaint was lodged by the aggrieved party against the extortionists.
Worryingly, both the groups that remain engaged in peace talks and those who are still outside the gambit of peace talks, are part of these extortion drives. The money generated through extortion is used to sustain their ‘movements’.
Apart from the Naga peace talks, talks with other prominent groups such as United liberation Front of Assam-Pro Talks faction (ULFA-PTF), Kuki National Organisation (KNO) and the United People’s Front (UPF) are yet to reach a conclusion.
While focused efforts to contain and neutralize armed violence have continued over decades, the base issue of ethnic polarisation has never been addressed and has, in fact, gained further momentum during anti-Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA)/ Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB) agitation. The CAA 2019 seeks to help illegal non-Muslim immigrants from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh to secure citizenship by naturalisation. The issue of non-locals is highly emotive in the region and has often led to violence in the past.
There are other state specific ethnic issues which need to be addressed to consolidate an enduring peace. These primarily include:
Arunachal Pradesh: the demand of a Permanent Resident Certificate (PRC) by six communities (Ahom, Deoris, Sonowal-Kacharis,, Morans, Adivasis and Mishing) living in the Lohit, Namsai and Changlang Districts of the State; the objections by local Arunachali tribes on giving citizenship to the Chakma and Hajong refuges settled in Arunachal Pradesh; and opposition by a section of the Yobin community on the renewal of lease agreements for ex-servicemen's families (mostly Gorkha), settled in the Vijaynagar area of Changlang District.
Assam: friction between the claimants of Scheduled Tribe status from six major communities [Moran, Matak, Tai Ahom, Chutia, Koch Rajbongshi and the tea tribes] and the tribes presently in this category [Bodos, Mishings Rabha, Karbi etc.].
Manipur: the dominant Naga and Kuki Hill tribes are at loggerheads on the issue of 'ancestral land', especially in Districts with mixed populations.
Meghalaya: the issue of implementation of the Inner Line Permit to regulate entry and stay of non-locals.
Mizoram: tension between Mizos and Non-Mizos over opportunities for employment and education.
Tripura: the issue of the settlement of displaced Brus from Mizoram in Tripura.
Nagaland: the implementation of the Register of Indigenous Citizens of Nagaland exercise, based on the Banuo Commission report, with December 1, 1963, as the cut-off date.
Cooperation from neighbouring countries, including Bhutan, Bangladesh and Myanmar, played a significant role in the improvement of overall situation. Underlining the fact, the Chief of Army Staff (CoAS) General Manoj Mukund Naravane, stated, on February 12, 2021,
The ongoing turmoil in Myanmar and Bangladesh may change the situation on ground. Violent protests by Islamic hardliners in Bangladesh masquerading as dissent against Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the ruling Awami League in Bangladesh, work to promote an ‘Islamic system’ over democracy. Civil societies mobilization and protests in Myanmar to restore democracy may also create an environment of instability. In both countries, this is likely to create opportunities for Indian Insurgent Groups (IIGs) to regroup.
More worryingly, there are apprehensions of direct Chinese intervention. In an article published on April 6, 2021, the Communist Party of China-backed Global Times warned that “if India supports China's separatist forces, it means that it has undermined the principle of establishing diplomatic relations, and China will not respect India's sovereignty or territorial integrity.” Long Xingchun, President of the Chengdu Institute of World Afifairs, asserted that many ‘armed forces’ in India, especially in the northeast, had demanded China's support.
There have long been reports indicating a Chinese role in the multiple insurgencies of India’s Northeast. Many of the top insurgent leaders are/were reported to have taken shelter inside China. These currently include, inter alia, top NSCN-IM leaders, including former ‘chief’ of the Naga Army, Phungting Shimrang; ‘deputy commander’ Hanshi Ramson Tangkhul; ‘major general’ Absalom Assissi; and United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I) chief Paresh Baruah.
Meanwhile, inter-state border disputes between Mizoram and Tripura and Assam and Mizoram flared up in 2020, and continue to simmer. In the latest of a series of clashes reported from these borders, six persons [three each from Assam and Mizoram] were injured in a clash reported from Kachurtal in the Hailakandi District of Assam on February 9, 2021.
The consolidation of peace in India’s Northeast is facing challenges in the form of existing ethnic tensions in the constituent States and increased polarisation within States due to an increasingly strident and divisive political discourse. Moreover, turmoil in the wider regional neighbourhood is another worrying development that could undermine the fragile stability that has been established after decades of violence. There is real apprehension that a few of the active terrorist groups as well as some of the dormant groups may try to exploit the environment of uncertainty and rising tension to their advantage, creating new crises in this long-troubled region.
Meaningful engagement of the Centre, the States, civil society and ethnic groups, to narrow the differences amongst citizens is thus an urgent imperative. Constructive and continued engagement with Myanmar and Bangladesh are also an imperative, even as security operations continue to hold down the residual threat of armed violence.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia April 5-11, 2021
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
India (Total)
PAKISTAN
KP
PAKISTAN (Total)
Taliban attacks up 24% since US-Taliban Deal, says NDS Chief Ahmad Zia Saraj: On April 11, the head of National Directorate of Security (NDS), the Afghan intelligence agency, Ahmad Zia Saraj, at a session with Member of Parliament (MPs) said that Taliban attacks have increased by 24% following the signing of the Doha agreement last year, adding that the group has launched 20,600 attacks since last March. According to Siraj, over 4,500 Taliban and Daesh members were arrested last solar year (March 2020 to March 2021) of which 221 were involved in targeted attacks and bombings. Tolo News, April 12, 2021.
Reconciliation Council wraps up assessment of peace proposals: On April 8, a 15-member committee under the High Council for National Reconciliation responsible for consolidating the dozens of peace plan proposals provided by Afghan leaders wrapped up its work. The committee, which is led by former vice president Mohammad Yunus Qanooni, assessed at least 25 peace proposals provided by different parties, including President Ashraf Ghani's peace plan, according to the reconciliation council. Tolo News, April 8, 2021.
HCNR consolidates various peace plans ahead of Istanbul Summit: A 15-member committee in the High Council of National Reconciliation (HCNR), in this week, is attempting to gather and finalize various submitted perspectives and plans for the Afghan peace process ahead of the UN-led conference on Afghanistan in Turkey. The peace council said that until now no exact date about the date of the potential conference in Turkey has been shared; however, Tolo News learned on April 6 that US peace envoy Zalmay Khalilzad had reportedly shared a specific date for the conference with the negotiation teams in Doha. Tolo News, April 6, 2021.
Will not allow Government to shut down madrasas under pretext of lockdown, says HeI chief Junaid Babunagari: Hefazat-e-Islam (HeI) chief Junaid Babunagari after an emergency meeting of HeI at Hathazari of Chattogram District on April 11 said they will not allow the Government to shut down madrasas under the pretext of lockdown and called for allowing people to pray at mosques during the month of fasting. He said "We won't allow shutting down of madrasas on the pretext of lockdown to curb coronavirus and stopping prayers at mosques. Taraweeh, Jumma prayers and Etekaf will continue." Dhaka Tribune, April 5, 2021.
BNP now depends on activities of HeI, says Road Transport and Bridges Minster Obaidul Quader: Road Transport and Bridges Minster Obaidul Quader on April 8 said after failing to wage their movements successfully, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) now depends on activities of Hefajat-e-Islam (HeI). "BNP now needs political isolation, as they have contracted a disease worse than Covid-19, the symptoms of which are negativity, lies, conspiracies, arson, and terrorism," he said. The Daily Star, April 8, 2021.
Government sets up cyber tribunal in all eight Divisions of country to hold trials of cybercrimes-related cases: The Government on April 4 set up a cyber tribunal in each of the all eight Divisions of the country to hold trials of cybercrimes-related cases, including those filed under the controversial Digital Security Act (DSA). Earlier, there was one cyber tribunal in Dhaka for holding trial of cases filed under the Information and Communication Technology Act. The Daily Star, April 4, 2021.
New government in next few days, claims Pushpa Kamal Dahal: Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist Centre) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal has claimed that an agreement to form a new Government will be reached within the next few days. Addressing a function at Karnali Province Liaison Committee in Kathmandu on April 10, Chairman Dahal also announced that the political parties in the new coalition Government would forge an electoral alliance to reduce the Oli-led Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) to the fourth largest party through the next election. My Republica, April 11, 2021.
Balochistan Home and Tribal Affairs Minister Mir Ziaullah Langau reveals nexus between terror outfits of Karachi, Balochistan: Balochistan Home and Tribal Affairs Minister Mir Ziaullah Langau has revealed that terrorist organisations of Karachi and Balochistan are working together in the largest province of the country. Minister Langau revealed to the media at Karachi Press Club on April 5, and said action has been initiated against them during which Security Forces (SFs) have killed and arrested several terrorists. The Express Tribune, April 6, 2021.
AG, Dappula De Livera, authorizes ban of 11 Islamic Organizations: Attorney General (AG) Dappula De Livera on April 7 authorized the Proscription of 11 Islamic Organisations connected to extremist activities. The organisations to be banned are: United Thawheed Jamma'ath (UTJ), Ceylon Thawheed Jamma'ath (CTJ), Srilanka Thawheed Jamma'ath (SLTJ), All Ceylon Thawheed Jamma'ath (ACTJ), JamiyathuI Ansaari Sunnaththul Mohomadiya (JASM), Dharul Adhar @ Jamiul Adhar, Srilanka Islamic Student Movement (SLISM), Islamic State of Iraq & Syria (ISIS), AL- Qaeda, Save the Pearls and Super Muslim. Daily Mirror, April 7, 2021.
Government announces Nawfer Moulavi as mastermind behind Easter Sunday attacks: The Government on April 6 officially announced that Nawfer Moulavi who is in remand custody has been identified as the mastermind behind the Easter Sunday attacks that killed more than 270 innocent civilians on April 21, 2019. According to Public Security Minister Dr. Sarath Weerasekera, Nawfer Moulavi who is in remand custody, has been involved in brainwashing Saharan Hashim's team into following the Islamic State ideology. Daily News, April 6, 2021.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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