South Asia Terrorism Portal

PAKISTAN

TTP's darkening shadow
Sanchita Bhattacharya
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
 

On July 28, 2020, an alert was received by intelligence agencies about a possible attack on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s (KP) Inspector General of Police (IGP), Sanaullah Abbasi. The threat alert stated: “A reliable source has revealed that terrorists belonging to TTP [Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP)]/Jamaat-ul-Ahrar have planned to attack the IG KP in the Central Police Office; vigilance is indicated.”

The United Nations (UN) on July 16, 2020, designated TTP leader, Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud aka Abu Mansoor Asim, as a global terrorist. Mufti Mehsud was listed pursuant to paragraphs 2 and 4 of resolution 2368 (2017) for “participating in the financing, planning, facilitating or perpetrating of acts or activities by, in conjunction with, under the name of, on behalf of, or in support of” entities associated with Al-Qaeda. The United States Security Council (UNSC) 1267 Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee added Mehsud to its ISIL (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida Sanctions List.

Later, on July 23, 2020, the UK Government placed Mufti Mehsud on its ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria) and Al-Qaeda terrorist financial sanction list, froze his assets and imposed a travel ban.

Mehsud was earlier listed as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) by the United States (US) Department of State on September 10, 2019. Mehsud was named the leader of TTP in June 2018, following the death of former TTP leader Mullah Fazlullah, who was killed on June 14, 2018.

TTP was formed on December 11, 2007, under the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud. 13 groups met in an undisclosed location in South Waziristan, in the tribal belt of Pakistan, and formed the TTP. The sole objective of the meeting was to unite the small militant factions under the leadership of TTP against NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) forces in Afghanistan and to wage a defensive jihad (Holy War) against Pakistani forces. Since its formation the outfit has lost three of its ‘chiefs’, in drone strikes: Baitullah Mehsud, killed on August 5, 2009; Hakimullah Mehsud, killed on November 1, 2013; and Mullah Fazlullah on June 14, 2018.

According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), TTP has been involved in at least 1,261 incidents of killing since its inception in 2007, in which 2,216 civilians, 1,161 Security Force (SF) personnel and 5,120 terrorists, including its own cadres, have been killed. Further, a total of 3,263 TTP terrorists have been arrested, so far.

The worst attack by TTP occurred when a seven-member suicide squad killed at least 133 school children and nine staff members, including the Principal, in an attack at the Army Public School (APS), Peshawar (capital of KP) on December 16, 2014. Earlier, on June 8, 2014, TTP had attacked the Jinnah International Airport, Karachi, killing 36 people.

A week after the attack on the Airport, Operation Zarb-e-Azb (‘Sword of the Prophet’, also ‘sharp and cutting’) was launched on June 15, 2014. However, following the APS attack, the National Action Plan (NAP) was formulated in January 2015, to root out terrorist elements from the country. NAP gave a boost to Operation Zarb-e-Azb and amplified counter terrorism efforts. The operation inflicted a severe blow on TTP’s terror bases in the Tochi and Shawal Valleys, both in the North Waziristan District of KP.

Moreover, the ongoing Radd-ul-Fasaad (Elimination of Discord) Operation, initiated on February 22, 2017, aimed at eliminating terrorist sleeper cells across Pakistan. Since the start of the Operation, reported violent incidents and fatalities involving TTP have declined sharply. According to partial data collated by SATP, after February 22, the year 2017 recorded 37 incidents of killing involving TTP, in which 149 persons, including 34 civilians, 40 SF personnel, and 75 terrorists were killed. Through 2018, 20 such incidents were reported, in which 76 persons (33 civilians, 20 SF personnel, and 23 terrorists) were killed; 2019 recorded 18 such incidents, in which 64 persons (26 civilians, 23 SFs and 15 militants) were killed; and 2020 (till, August 2) reported just two  incidents, in which three persons, including two civilians and one terrorist, were killed.

Apart from the impact of military operations, TTP also lost its prominence due to internal rifts. The appointment of a leader from outside the Mehsud tribe, following the death of Hakimullah Mehsud (i.e., Fazlullah in November 2013) created numerous fissures in the organisation, and resulted in the emergence of splinter groups. In February, 2014, Ahrar-ul-Hind, was formed under the leadership of Maulana Umar Qasmi. The group claimed that its goal was the establishment of sharia, or Islamic law, and acknowledged that the movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, TTP, were still “our brothers” despite separation from the group. The faction split from TTP due TTP’s engagement in talks with the Pakistani government. In May, 2014, another split emerged in TTP, after the Mehsud faction walked out, saying the group leaders' tactics were "un-Islamic". The faction comprising militants from the Mehsud tribe, formed its own separate group called Tehrik Taliban South Waziristan. As reported on May 28, 2014, the ‘spokesman’ for the new group, Azam Tariq Mehsud, stated, “We consider the bombing of public places, extortion and kidnappings un-Islamic, and since the TTP leaders continued with these practices, we decided we should not share the responsibility…” Further, in August, 2014, a new group, known as Jamaat-e-Ahrar, was formed, combining with disaffected Taliban factions along Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan, and controlled by Omar Khalid Khorasani, an ambitious ‘commander’ with strong ties to Al Qaeda. As reported on August 26, 2014, in a lengthy video statement explaining the decision to break away, Khorasani argued that the Taliban had become undisciplined and suffered from factional infighting. “This was devastating for our movement,” he said.

However, TTP gradually resurfaced after having largely faded away. Conceivably, the most threatening sign of TTP's growing power came on July 31, 2019, when the group issued a written warning to locals in Miranshah in North Waziristan, demanding a ban on music and women going out without a male family member. The one-page message in Urdu cautioned the locals,

In a video released in April 2020, TTP renewed the focus on its extensive ties to jihadist groups in the wider Afghanistan-Pakistan region, including the Afghan Taliban, Al-Qaeda, and the Haqqani Network. Indeed, the 26th report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team of UNSC noted, "the total number of Pakistani foreign terrorist fighters in Afghanistan, posing a threat to both countries, is estimated at between 6,000 and 6,500, most of them with TTP." The report further disclosed that TTP was led by Noor Wali Mehsud, supported by his 'deputy' Qari Amjad and 'spokesperson' Mohammad Khorasani.

Meanwhile, the state of affairs in Pakistan vis-à-vis TTP can very well be assessed with the 'escape' of Ehsanullah Ehsan, along with his wife and children on January 11, 2020. Ehsan, the former 'spokesperson' of TTP had 'surrendered' before the Pakistan Army in 2017, but 'escaped' from the safe house where he was being kept for two-and-a-half years. In an audio clip, following this incident, Ehsan audaciously stated:

Since his escape, a Twitter account, with the handle, @Ehsanofficial32, reportedly used by him has been fairly active, propagating TTP’s murderous ideology.

Also, on June 17, the Peshawar High Court (PHC) ordered the release of 200 convicts, including 196 TTP militants, convicted by the military courts on terrorism charges. The Supreme Court (SC), however, on July 21, 2020, suspended the PHC order. The next hearing in the SC is awaited.

While there is no doubt that the TTP is again trying to make inroads in Pakistan and to carve out an area of influence for itself, the Government led by Prime Minister Imran Khan also appears to be seeking support from the hardline Islamist lobby. Moreover, TTP’s attempts to restore its former operational capacity has serious potential repercussions on the US’s fight against Al-Qaeda, given the TTP’s close relation to the global terrorist formation.

INDIA

Manipur: A Militant Confluence
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On July 29, 2020, a joint team of three militant groups - the Manipur-based People's Liberation Army (PLA) and Manipur Naga People's Front (MNPF), and the Assam-based United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I) - killed three Assam Rifles personnel in an ambush at Khongtal village under Chakpikarong Police Station in the Chandel District of Manipur. Another five Security Force (SF) personnel were injured in the attack. The responsibility for the attack was claimed in a joint statement issued by Ruichumhao, 'defense secretary', MNPF; MM Ngouba, 'chief of army staff', PLA; and Paresh Asom aka Paresh Baruah, 'chief of army staff', ULFA-I. The joint statement mailed by the militants to the media after the attack stated,

On July 31, during the wreath-laying ceremony organised by Assam Rifles at Bir Tikendrajit International Airport, Imphal, Manipur, Chief Minister N. Biren Singh warned, “Government will definitely hunt down the perpetrators and book them, as per the law. These terrorist groups will not be compromised with anymore.” He, nevertheless, appealed to the militant groups operating in and around the region to shun violence and give up their weapons and come out for a political solution.

This is the maiden attack on SFs in Manipur in which ULFA-I has been found to be involved. The group appears to have joined hands with the PLA-MNPF in order to register its presence in the State.

PLA and MNPF, however, have jointly attacked SFs on at least nine occasions in the past, near the Indo-Myanmar boundary. These attacks have resulted in the death of nine persons, including three militants and six SF personnel; six SF personnel were also injured in these attacks. Some of the attacks include:

January 7, 2020: PLA and MNPF militants attacked Assam Rifles personnel at Khongtal village in Chandel District. There was no casualty in this incident.

September 7, 2018: An Assam Rifles trooper and a PLA militant were killed in an encounter at Zouopi area of Chandel District. PLA and MNPF claimed that their cadres conducted the attack

November 15, 2017: PLA and MNPF in a joint ambush attacked two troopers of the Assam Rifles who were part of a road opening party and injured them on the Chamol-Sajir Tampak Road in Chandel District. Later one of them succumbed to his injuries. Two militants were also killed in the incident.

June 30, 2017: MNPF and PLA exploded an Improvised Explosive Device at an Assam Rifles check post, killing a trooper and injuring two others at Ramva in Lambui village of Ukhrul District.

March 11, 2014: PLA militants killed two Assam Rifles personnel at Kambang Khullen in Chandel District.

February 8, 2014: PLA militants killed an Assam Rifles trooper and injured three others near Nambasi village under Chassad Police Station in Ukhrul District.

The PLA and MNPF alliance forged in 2013 has thus been successfully attacking SFs at regular intervals in the bordering areas. The exact date on which this understanding was reached is not known. It is, however, a fact that the MNPF gains both battle experience and funding from the arrangement.

MNPF was formed on a June 28, 2013, with the merger of the Manipur Naga Revolutionary Front (MNRF) and United Naga People’s Council (UNPC). The top leadership of MNPF includes ‘chairman’ John Francis Kashung, ‘defence secretary’ Ahao Jajo, ‘home secretary’ SP Athing and ‘publicity secretary’ Thomas Numai. Since its formation, apart from the combined attacks mentioned above, MNRF has been involved in the killing of one civilian (data till August 2, 2020). During this period, 10 MNRF militants have been arrested by SFs. One incident of arms recovery linked to the outfit has also been reported.

The PLA, one of the oldest and well-connected Valley-based militant groups active in Manipur, appears to have chosen to collaborate with a minor hill-based group to gain local advantage in the bordering areas of the Hill Districts based on division of labour. According to the partial data collected by South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), between March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on conflicts in the Northeast, to July 30, 2020, PLA has been found involved in 224 fatalities (27 civilians, 50 SF personnel and 147 militants). The SF fatalities include the combined attacks with MNPF.

PLA and MNPF have successfully been exploiting the weaknesses of Indo-Myanmar border management to carry out their attacks. Even though the State of Manipur has achieved relative peace in recent years, as reflected in declining fatalities’ data, there remains areas of substantial concern, especially the presence of militants across the Myanmar border. According to SATP, there were a total of five fatalities in 2020 (data till August 2), nine in 2019 and 23 in 2018.

Lately, Myanmar has woken up to address India’s security concerns. On May 15, 2020, Myanmar handed over 22 militants to India arrested during 2019 operations against Indian Insurgent Groups (IIGs) in Myanmar. 12 of these militants belonged to the Valley-based militant groups – United National Liberation Front (UNLF), seven militants; two militants each of PLA and People’s Revolutionary Army of Kangleipak-Progressive (PREPAK-PRO); and one Kanglei Yowel Kanna Lup (KYKL) militant.

Such cooperation needs to be further deepened as the number of militants present in Myanmar is substantial. Se Gin, the Chairman of the Kuki Youth Network (KYN), a civil society group, confirms the presence of large Valley-based groups in Leshi, Homalin and the border town of Tamu in Sagiang, as well as the Mandalay Division of Myanmar. Reports also indicate the presence of these militants in the Chin State. The reported breakup of the strength of these militant groups are – UNLF, between 1,300 and 3,000; PLA, between 1,000 and 2,000; KYKL, less than a thousand; and PREPAK, around 40.

Both PLA and MNPF are fighting for the ‘restoration’ of a ‘sovereign’ Manipur and stress on maintaining cordial relations between Hill and Valley residents, thus negating ‘divisive politics’. Naturally, MNPF and the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM) are on opposite sides, as the latter views itself as the sole group representing Nagas. On September 12, 2017, suspected NSCN-IM militants attacked and killed five militants belonging to the PLA-MNPF combine at Makan village in Ukhrul District along the Indo-Myanmar border.

PLA and MNPF have tried to capitalise on the fear of 'demographic change' in Manipur due to migration from other parts of the country. On November 21, 2019, in a joint PLA-MNPF statement warned,

Pre-empting any such apprehensions, however, the Union Government has extended the Inner Line Permit (ILP) regime to Manipur, thus excluding the State from the purview of CAB/CAA 2019. 

Meanwhile, it is to be noted that Manipur is expected to face the negative fallout of any breakdown of Government of India (GoI)- NSCN-IM talks. As both ranks and leadership of NSCN-IM are substantially drawn from Manipur, the State could witness outbreak of significant violence in case the GoI – NSCN-IM talks collapse.

PLA and MNPF, along with ULFA-I, may take advantage of any such situation. It is imperative, therefore, to heighten vigilance within the State and strengthen the security apparatus in areas along the Indo-Myanmar border, as well as to broaden security cooperation and border management with Myanmar to tackle the large number of militants present across the border.