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South Asia Terrorism Portal

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
[SAIR]

Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 20, No.17, October 18, 2021
 
Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

ASSESSMENT

  • PAKISTAN: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Under Increased Fire - Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
  • INDIA: NSCN-IM: Pushback - Giriraj Bhattacharjee


PAKISTAN

 

    Print

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Under Increased Fire
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research
Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

 

On October 13, 2021, a Traffic Police Assistant Sub-Inspector (ASI), Nauman Khan, was killed in an incident of targeted killing in Chamkani area on the outskirts of Peshawar, the provincial capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). ASI Khan was going to join his duties when he was targeted by two unidentified assailants riding a motorcycle.

On October 4, 2021, one Army soldier was killed during an exchange of fire with militants in the Ghariuom area of North Waziristan District. According to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), a Security Forces’ (SFs) post was targeted by terrorists, where the trooper was killed.

On October 2, 2021, four Frontier Corps (FC) soldiers and a Sub-Inspector (SI) of the Levies Force were killed when militants targeted their vehicle in the Spinwam area of North Waziristan District.

Some of the major incidents (each involving three or more killings) of attacks on SFs in 2021 include:

September 15: Seven Army soldiers and five terrorists were killed in the Asman Manza area of South Waziristan District.

July 5: Three SF personnel were killed when unidentified militants attack their check post in the Hassan Khel area of North Waziristan District.

May 5: Three soldiers, induing an Army Captain, and two militants were killed in the Dosalli area of North Waziristan District.

February 18: Five soldiers were killed and another was injured when terrorists attacked a security check-post in the Sara Rogha area of South Waziristan District.

February 11: Four soldiers and four militants were killed during a clash after terrorists opened fire on a SFs check post in the Makeen area of South Waziristan.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), KP has recorded 78 SF fatalities in 2021 (data till October 17). During the corresponding period of 2020, there were 50 SF fatalities. During the whole of 2020, there were 57 such fatalities. In fact, SF fatalities recorded in 2021, are the highest in a year since 2015, when there 81 such fatalities. It is useful to note that almost two and half months still remain in the current year.

There is, clearly, a surge in attacks on SFs. According to reports, SFs have arrested dozens of suspects during operations across the province. Based on their disclosures and further investigations, SFs have found that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has been behind these attacks on Police, FC and Pakistan Army personnel.

It is pertinent to recall that, on August 17, 2020, TTP confirmed that the breakaway Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA) and Hizb-ul-Ahrar (HuA) had re-joined the group. JuA ‘chief’ Omar Khalid Khurasani and HuA ‘chief’ Omar Khurasani have pledged allegiance to the TTP ‘chief’ Noor Wali Mehsud, the TTP statement indicated. JuA parted ways with TTP in 2014, after developing differences with the then leader of the group, Mullah Fazlullah. It had even condemned the TTP’s December 16, 2014, Army Public School attack, which had resulted in the death of 148 persons, including 135 children. HuA was formed later, after JuA split into two groups. Earlier, after the death of TTP-Hakimullah Mehsud (TTP-HK) ‘chief’ Shehryar Mehsud on February 12, 2020, TTP-HK under its ‘commander’ Mukhlis Yaar Mehsud, had re-joined the parent outfit in July 2020. A regrouped, resurgent TTP has become a major challenge for the security establishment.

In the interim, the Taliban started making rapid gains inside Afghanistan and Islamabad believed that it would be an easy task for it to handle the TTP onslaught once Taliban assumed power. Contrary to the Pakistan military establishment’s conviction that they would control the TTP who, according to Pakistan, were operating out of the bordering areas of Afghanistan, after Rawalpindi’s proxy – the Afghan Taliban - assumed power in Kabul, TTP-led violence is now escalating.

During an interview with on July 26, 2021, TTP chief Noor Wali Mehsud, in fact, asserted that his group had a ‘good relationship’ with the Afghan Taliban and hoped to benefit from the latter’s victories across the border. He further warned that TTP would continue its “war against Pakistan’s security forces” and declared that the outfit’s goal was to “take control of the border regions and make them independent.” This is the first time that TTP’s leadership has called for an independent state in Pakistan’s tribal areas.

More recently, on September 22, 2021, the Awami National Party (ANP) warned that a new wave of terrorism was emerging in KP that would engulf the entire country if not controlled at this stage. “The terrorists are regrouping in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,” ANP provincial president Aimal Wali Khan declared. He asked the Government to contain the spread of extremism and terrorism, adding that failure to take concrete steps would send the message that the Government or state institutions were party to the violence.

Available data indicates that there has been a surge in violence against SFs in the Province since the Taliban assumed power in Afghanistan, though the rise is not alarming, as of now. In the 62 days following the Taliban’s assumption of power in Afghanistan, Pakistan has recorded 41 SF fatalities. During the preceding 64 days, Pakistan recorded 37 SF fatalities. During these two periods, KP has recorded 23 SF fatalities (between August 15 and October 17) and 20 SF fatalities (between August 14 and June 12).

Despite TTP’s violence and threats, instead of targeting the outfit, the Pakistan Government is trying to buy peace. In an interview published on October 1, 2021, Prime Minister Imran Khan disclosed that his government was in talks with TTP. Khan elaborated,

There are different groups which form the TTP and some of them want to talk to our government for peace. So, we are in talks with them. It’s a reconciliation process
When asked why TTP was attacking Pakistan’s SFs when they were in talks with the Government, the premier argued that this was just a "spate of attacks." And added, "We might not reach some sort of conclusion or settlement in the end, but we are talking”. When asked if the Government was asking them to lay down arms, the Prime Minister responded, “Yes, we forgive them and they become normal citizens.”

The announcement of peace talks at this juncture – when attacks are on the rise and TTP’s morale is spiralling upwards in the wake of the victory of the Afghan Taliban – is likely to have a demoralising impact on the SFs engaged in the fighting on the ground. TTP’s declaration of its unprecedented ambition to secure an independent tribal state can only bedevil a Pakistan establishment long worried about the uncertain nature of the Durand Line, the Afghan Taliban’s rejection of the existing borders between the two countries, and the increasing restiveness of the Pashtuns of KP. A radical Islamist Pashtun-majority regime across the border, radiant in the afterglow of a victory over the world’s ‘sole superpower,’ can only add to these worries.


INDIA

 

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NSCN-IM: Pushback
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On October 15, 2021, the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM) accused the Government of India (GoI) of violating the historical and political rights of the Naga people for more than six decades and alleged that GoI was engaged in flattery and a divisive policy in the name of finding a political solution for the Naga issue. The NSCN-IM asserted,

NSCN is, however, no longer naïve enough to be carried away by such an outrageous flattery (sic). Here we are talking about the Naga national flag and Constitution (Yehzabo), the two issues that is (sic) holding up the Naga solution under the ongoing Indo-Naga political talk in Delhi.
It asserted,
The chequered history of the Indo-Naga political issue is clear enough before us, with accords and agreements that were never meant to be implemented in letter and spirit… The Naga flag with divine origin cannot be traded or bargained to make the Nagas infidel people (sic).

A delegation of NSCN-IM which included chief negotiator Th. Muivah, chairman Q. Tuccu and vice chairman Tongmeth Wangnao has been stationed in the national capital, New Delhi, since October 5, 2021.

Earlier, on September 19, 2021, the Centre’s new Interlocutor for peace talks, A. K. Mishra, who replaced R.N. Ravi, and the NSCN-IM leadership led by Th. Muivah, met in Dimapur (Nagaland). An unnamed source disclosed, “Since this was the first formal meeting after the new interlocutor was appointed, the meeting was more of an introductory (sic).”

Significantly, the formal talks were stalled for almost 20 months, as R.N. Ravi, who was the Interlocutor for Naga peace talks when the August 5, 2015, Framework Agreement was signed, and NSCN-IM came to loggerheads as a deadline of October 31, 2019, supposedly given by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to formulate a solution, ended without any resolution. The last meeting between R. N. Ravi and NSCN-IM happened on January 30, 2020, and ended in an acrimonious exchange between the two sides. Then, in August 2020, NSCN-IM chose to have informal discussions with senior serving Intelligence Bureau (IB) officials. The meetings with IB officials had continued during the interregnum.

NSCN-IM was also irked when Ravi inked an agreement with the Working Committee of the seven-member Naga National Political Groups (NNPGs) on November 17, 2017. NSCN-IM claims that it is the only representative of the Naga people.

More recently, NSCN-IM reacted sharply to the signing of the Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreement with the Niki Sumi faction of NSCN-Khaplang. On September 12, 2021, in a press release posted on Facebook, NSCN-IM stated,

The Government of India (GoI) has gained notoriety for overindulgence in duplicitous dealing that comes in the role of scheming villain to kill the Naga issue by keeping the Nagas divided... However, what has caught the attention of the keen political observers, besides the NSCN, is the deceitful dealing of the Government of India in signing ceasefire agreement after ceasefire agreement with its surrogate factions. Such a double dealing of the Government of India only generates doubt on India’s sincere commitment…

Since 2017, GoI has also been involved in talks with the Naga National Political Group (NNPG), a militant conglomerate. The NNPG comprises of seven Naga militant groups: NSCN-KN, NSCN-Reformation faction (NSCN-R), NSCN-Khango Konyak faction (NSCN-K2), and four factions of the Naga National Council (NNC) – Federal Government of Nagaland (FGN), NNC-Parent Body, Non-Accordist faction of NNC/National People's Government of Nagaland (NPGN/NNC-NA), and the Government Democratic Republic of Nagaland/ NNC-NA (GDRN).

NSCN-IM and Ravi were also at loggerheads on various other issues, including the interpretation of the Framework Agreement of 2015. On August 11, 2020, NSCN-IM called for Ravi’s replacement, alleging that the interlocutor misled Naga civil society groups and leaders by circulating a ‘doctored Framework Agreement and Competencies.’

Ravi was finally shifted to Tamil Nadu as Governor on September 9.

Soon after, on September 20,2021, a letter was issued purportedly by NSCN-IM, addressing the local leaders mainly from Nocte, Tangsa, Tutsa, and Wancho communities hailing from Tirap Changlang and Longding (TCL) Districts. The letter summoned them to a meeting scheduled for September 29-30 in Dimapur, Nagaland. A few days earlier, NSCN-IM had issued a letter ‘ordering’ Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA)’s and State Cabinet Ministers hailing from TCL Districts to withdraw support from the Prema Khandu-led State Government. Nocte, Tangsa, Tutsa, and Wancho are the four main Naga tribes in Arunachal Pradesh. No further reports are available. The Superintendents of Police of the TCL Districts were put on alert following the letter. “The government is committed to protecting its officers and men from any kind of threat,” an unnamed top Government official stated.

This sequence of developments clearly suggest that NSCN-IM sees an opportunity in Ravi’s ouster to put more pressure on the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Union Government, in order to counter the pressure on the group exerted by the Central Agencies.

Over the last couple of years, agencies such as the National Investigation Agency (NIA) and Enforcement Directorate (ED) have tightened the noose around the outfit.

On October 1, 2021, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) directed the NIA to investigate the abduction and subsequent murder of Athuan Abonmai, a tribal leader in the Tamenglong District of Manipur. On September 22, suspected NSCN-IM militants had abducted and killed Athuan Abonmai, the former president of Zeliangrong Baudi (a body representing the conglomerate of three tribes, the Zeme, Liangmai, and Rongmei tribes spread across Assam, Manipur, and Nagaland). Abonmai was abducted from Polo ground in the District Headquarters of Tamenglong and his dead body was found at Pallong village in Tamenglong District. Abonmai was known for his firm stand on maintaining the Zeliangrong identity and homeland. NSCN-IM seeks to project a unified Naga identity over every other identity. The UMHA order stated,

The central government is of the opinion that a scheduled offence under the NIA Act, 2008 has been committed and having regard to the gravity of the offence and to unearth the full conspiracy hatched by the accused, it is required to be investigated by NIA.

Significantly, NSCN-IM has eliminated/attacked opponents in the past as well, sending a chilling message to its critics. Prominent among these have been:

  • May 23, 2019: 11 persons, including the Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) Tirong Aboh and his son, were killed in an ambush by suspected NSCN-IM militants on the Khonsa-Deomali Road of Tirap District, Arunachal Pradesh.

  • October 24, 2016: Suspected NSCN-IM militants opened gunfire as the then Chief Minister of Manipur Okram Ibobi Singh was getting out of his helicopter at the Ukhrul helipad. The CM escaped unhurt from the incident. Two Manipur Rifles troopers sustained injuries in the attack.

  • April 15, 2011: Independent MLA Wungnaoshang Keishing narrowly escaped an ambush by NSCN-IM cadres who accused him of ‘betraying' the Nagas. Six Manipur Rifles troopers and two civilians were killed, and six were wounded in the attack near New Cannan Village in Ukhrul District. MLA Wungnaoshang Keishing was a believer in ‘Naga integration’ but fell out with NSCN-IM when he supported the demand for the creation of a separate District of Phungyar out of Ukhrul District.

  • November 24, 2007: Two Security Personnel sustained injuries when the then Goa Governor S. C. Jamir’s convoy was attacked with Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) planted by suspected NSCN-IM militants in Mokokchung District, Nagaland.

Meanwhile, on September 29, 2021, NIA announced an increase of rewards for information on five suspects belonging to NSCN-IM, including ‘lieutenant colonel’ Apem, ‘major general’ Absolon Tangkhul, ‘captain’ Victor Tangkhul, James Kiwang, and Rabi Wangno, linked to the killing of National People's Party MLA from Khonsa West constituency (Tirap District, Arunachal Pradesh), Tirong Aboh and eleven others.

These developments clearly underline the hollowness of the much-fanfared August 3, 2015, Framework Agreement. The celebratory proclamations that followed the signing of the Agreement were clearly premature, and it subsequently emerged that consensus on even the details of the Agreement itself was in question. The Centre’s strategy of protracting negotiations endlessly appears to have exhausted its possibilities. The process needs to make visible gains, lest this vulnerable region begins to regress into the age of violence and terrorism.

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia 
October 11-17, 2021

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

NS

Total

AFGHANISTAN

68
0
6
2
76

INDIA

 

Jammu and Kashmir

2
9
7
0
18

Manipur

4
0
0
0
4

INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)

 

Odisha

0
0
3
0
3

India (Total)

6
9
10
0
25

PAKISTAN

 

KP

0
1
3
0
4

Punjab

0
0
3
0
3

PAKISTAN (Total)

0
1
6
0
7

Total (South Asia)

74
10
22
2
108
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


AFGHANISTAN

65 Shia devotees killed in a suicide attack in Kandahar Province: At least 65 persons, believed to be Shia devotees, were killed in a suicide bombing attack at Imam Bargah Fatimeyah mosque in Police District one (PD1) of Kandahar city in Kandahar Province. The Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) claimed responsibility for the suicide bombing on a Shiite Mosque. Amaq News Agency in a statement gave the names of the attackers as Anas al-Khurasani and Abu Ali al-Baluchi, both Afghan nationals. AP NEWS, October 16, 2021.

IS threatens to target Shi’ite Muslims everywhere: Islamic State (IS) issued a statement in its Al-Naba weekly that Shi’ite Muslims are perilous and they will be targeted by them everywhere, reports Khamma News on October 17. IS especially threatened Shi’ite Muslims living in Afghanistan and added that they cooperate and support Iran and other countries against the IS-Khorasan Province (IS-KP). The Khaama Press News Agency, October 17, 2021.

Daesh was not emboldened but there is rhetoric in favour of the group, says Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi: On October 17, Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi said that Daesh (Arabic acronym for Islamic State) was not emboldened but there is rhetoric in favour of the group. “It fortunately doesn’t have the military capacity and it doesn’t have a sanctuary in Afghanistan,” Amir Khan Muttaqi said. Tolo News, October 18, 2021.

US President Joe Biden exempts former Taliban civil servants from the terror related bans: States (US) President Joe Biden has said that the former civil servants who worked for the Taliban during 1996-2001 will be exempt from the terror-related bans and will be allowed to travel to the United States. The Khaama Press News Agency, October 16, 2021.

Islamic Emirate vowed to bring reforms to its military forces and to eliminate members who misuse their authority and abuse the people: The Ministerial cabinet of the Islamic Emirate vowed to bring reforms to its military forces and to eliminate members who misuse their authority and abuse the people. A statement issued by the ministerial cabinet did not provide further details regarding the new cabinet decision. Meanwhile, a spokesman for the Ministry of Interior, Sayed Khosti said, “The Islamic Emirate established an independent commission to monitor in its forces”. Tolo News, October 13, 2021.

US must engage with the Taliban to avert crisis, says Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan report: Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan on October 11 said that the US must engage with the Taliban to avert crisis and added that the country has no option but to support the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. “The world must engage with Afghanistan because if it pushes it away, within the Taliban movement there are hardliners, and it could easily go back to the Taliban of 2000 and that would be a disaster,” said Khan. The Khaama Press News Agency, October 12, 2021.


BANGLADESH

Four persons killed in Police firing in Comilla District: Four persons killed in Police firing in Comilla District. Three people were killed in Police firing on October 13 and one of the injured was declared dead at Comilla Medical College Hospital on October 14. The deceased are Babul (28), Al Amin (18), Yasin Hossain Hridoy (14), and Shamim (18). The tension began in Comilla on October 13 as the Police tried to obstruct an unruly mob from demolishing the Nanoya Dighi puja mandap where Hindu women in the morning found the Quran on the thigh of an idol and informed the Police about the matter. New Age, October 15, 2021.


INDIA

BSF empowered to conduct search and arrests in larger areas in Assam, West Bengal and Punjab: In a notification on October 11, Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) has stated that Border Security Force (BSF) can now search, seize and arrest within 50 kilometres stretch from the International Border in Punjab, West Bengal and Assam. This notification comes following an amendment to the BSF act. Northeast Now, October 16, 2021.

Top Maoist leader R.K. dies off ill-health in Chhattisgarh: Top Community Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) leader, Akkiraju Haragopal alias Ramakrishna alias RK (58), who led the Maoists in peace talks with then Andhra Pradesh Government in 2004, died of chronic illness in Bijapur District of Chhattisgarh, sources said on October 13. RK was a member of the ‘Central Committee’ (CC) of the CPI-Maoist and in charge of the Andhra-Odisha Border Special Zonal Committee (AOBSZC) of the banned outfit. The Hindu, October 15, 2021.

Police drive to wean youth away from Maoists in Telangana: Bhadradri Kothagudem District Police are reaching out to women and youth in tribal areas and engaging them in various activities to wean them away from Community Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist). Apart from training women in tailoring, the Police are distributing sports kits to youth. Water filters and television sets are also being distributed in the last few months. The Times of India,October 14, 2021.


NEPAL

Home Minister discusses implementation of agreement strike with CPN-Maoist-Chand with other officials: Home Minister Bal Krishna Khand on October 17 discussed matters related to the implementation of the agreement struck by the previous KP Sharma Oli-led Government with Netra Bikram Chand, General Secretary of Netra Bikram Chand-led Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Chand) with Minister for Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs Dilendra Prasad Badu, Attorney General Kham Bahadur Khati and Home Secretary Teknarayan Pandey. Khabarhub, October 18, 2021.


SRI LANKA

Government rules out talks with banned Tamil diaspora groups: Government has ruled out talks with banned Tamil diaspora groups but will instead look at engaging with others, reports Daily Mirror on October 16. Foreign Minister, Professor G. L. Peiris, insisted that there will not be any direct talks with banned diaspora groups like the Global Tamil Forum. The Global Tamil Forum (GTF), British Tamil Forum (BTF), Canadian Tamil Congress (CTC), Australian Tamil Congress (ATC), National Council of Canadian Tamil, Tamil Youth Organisation and the World Tamil Coordinating Committee are among those proscribed by the Ministry of Defence. Daily Mirror, October 16, 2021.

President should focus his attention immediately on compiling new Constitution, says TNA leader R. Sampanthan: Tamil National Alliance (TNA) leader R. Sampanthan on October 13 said that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa should focus his attention immediately on compiling a new Constitution. He said “The President appointed a special committee to look into preparing a new constitution. Daily News, October 15, 2021.

Cabinet approves cyber security proposals to combat 'terrorist groups: Cabinet on October 12 approved the proposed ‘Defence Cyber Commands Act’ as well as a similar bill that aims to impose cyber protection under the guise of combatting ‘terrorist groups and criminals’. In detailing the proposals, Sri Lanka's Department of Government Information maintained that "terrorist groups and criminals have tended to use the cyberspace and electronic communication for terrorist activities, organized crimes and anti-social activities". Tamil Guardian, October 13, 2021.


For assessments on other South Asian countries and for daily news updates on terrorism visit
South Asia Terrorism Portal 
 

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

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