South Asia Terrorism Portal
Increasing Troubles S. Binodkumar Singh Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On January 26, 2022, Provincial Assembly Member Ashok Yadav was injured when cadres of the C.K. Raut-led Janamat Party attacked his vehicle in front of the Janaki temple in Janakpurdham city of Dhanusa District. Yadav's vehicle was attacked and vandalized by Janamat Party cadres in front of the Janaki temple while he was going to cast his vote in the National Assembly (NA) election.
On January 26, 2022, Ganesh Prasai, the Mayor of the Harion Municipality of Sarlahi District, suffered head injuries when Janamat Party cadres attacked his vehicle in Janakpurdham city. Deputy Mayor Renuka Poudel who was accompanying him, escaped unhurt. According to the Police, Raut's cadres attacked Prasai’s vehicle while they were on their way to cast their votes in the NA Election.
On January 1, 2022, 16 persons were injured in a clash between Security Force (SF) personnel and Janamat Party cadres, after the latter tried to obstruct the East-West Highway at Godar Chowk in Ganeshman Charnath Municipality, Dhanusa District.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), since the beginning of the year, 18 persons have been injured in ongoing protests in the Terai region (data till February 20, 2022). At least eight persons were injured during protests in Terai region in 2021.
The Janamat Party, expressing solidarity with the ‘Farmers Movement’, called an indefinite strike on the East-West Highway in the Terai region during the day-time, from December 30, 2021. The farmers in the region are demanding proper distribution of and access to fertilizers and other facilities. Further, on February 9, 2022, C.K. Raut warned that his party would obstruct local level elections if the farmers’ demands were not met. He declared that, though his party could not obstruct local level elections all across the country, it would hamper the process in the Terai region. Stating that the Janamat Party was not against elections, Raut asserted that the Government should at least meet the demands raised by the protesting farmers before going for elections. On February 7, 2022, the Government announced local elections to be held on May 13, 2023, in a single phase.
Moreover, opposition to the January 17, 2022, decision of the Province 2 Assembly, which voted to rename the Province as Madhesh Province and to make Janakpur its permanent capital, has also started. The protestors want Birgunj as capital of the Province, not Janakpur.
It is useful to recall here that, protesting against the adoption of the new Constitution on September 20, 2015, the Madhesis had blockaded border points with India from September 23, 2015, and only ended the blockade on February 5, 2016, after 135 days. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 32 persons, including 29 civilians and three SF personnel, were killed in blockade-related violence at that time. Further, during the insurgency (February 13, 1996 – November 21, 2006), the Terai region recorded 3,194 fatalities (467 civilians, 724 SF personnel and 2,003 Maoist cadres).
The current flare-up in the region is, therefore, dangerous and requires immediate attention.
Meanwhile, the ongoing protest demonstrations, a few of them violent, on several issues in other parts of the country also have the potential to create an environment that could be exploited by fringe and extremist elements. In the most violent protest in 2021, on December 30, 2021, six women farmers were injured in Police action in the course of a nationwide ‘Farmers Movement’ in Saptari District.
Political instability is the main reason behind these protests. After a great deal of political theatrics through 2020 and the first half of 2021, a new Government was formed on July 13, 2021, with the Nepali Congress (NC) leader Sher Bahadur Deuba assuming the office of Prime Minister (PM). The ruling alliance comprises the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist Centre), Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Socialist (CPN-Unified Socialist), Janata Samajwadi Party-Nepal (JSP-N) and Rastriya Janamorcha. Interestingly, since the beginning, the parties within the new ruling alliance have been at odds on several issues, most prominently on the issue of the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), a US Government-backed USD 500 million project to improve infrastructure in Nepal. While Deuba has proposed that it should be ratified in the current parliamentary session, as the US is chafing over its delay, CPN-Maoist Centre Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda, CPN-Unified Socialist Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal and JSP-N President Upendra Yadav continue to oppose the proposal, arguing that MCC should not be endorsed without examining the Jhalanath Khanal-led three-member task force report and executing amendments based on its recommendations. A meeting of the CPN-Maoist Centre Central Parliamentary Party on February 16, 2022, concluded that the MCC cannot be passed without amendment and decided to quit the Government if it was. Later, in the day, leaders and members of the CPN-Maoist Centre organized protests and demonstrations across the country warning the Government not to ratify the MCC. On the same day, CPN-Unified Socialist decided to vote against MCC in Parliament. A CPN-Unified Socialist leader said, “We will not allow the MCC to be tabled in the Parliament. And if it is tabled, we will vote against it.”
Moreover, on February 16, 2022, six communist parties – the Mohan Baidhya-led Communist Party of Nepal-Revolutionary Maoist (CPN-Revolutionary Maoist), the Netra Bikram Chand-led Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Chand), the Rishi Kattel-led Nepal Communist Party (NCP), the Biswobhakta Dulal aka Aahuti-led Baigyanik Samajwadi Party (BSP), the Karnajit Budhathoki-led Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Center Socialist (CPN-Maoist Center Socialist) and the C.P. Gajurel-led Deshbhakta Jana Ganatantrik Morcha-Nepal (DJGM-Nepal) – called a bandh in protest against MCC.
MCC, created by the US Congress in January 2004, is an independent US foreign assistance agency that aims to lead the fight against global poverty. It’s Nepal Compact is designed to improve the availability of electricity and increase road maintenance to advance connectivity, drive growth, and lay the foundation for new investment.
On the positives, through 2021, no insurgency linked fatality was recorded in Nepal. The country had just one insurgency-linked fatality (a civilian) in 2020. There were 13 fatalities in 2019 (three civilians, two SF personnel and eight extremists). Violence had surged in 2019 after a lull of almost six years, between 2013 and 2018, during which Nepal recorded just two fatalities (both civilians, in 2013). All 13 fatalities in 2019 were linked to the CPN-Maoist-Chand. The lone 2020 fatality was also linked to this group. CPN-Maoist-Chand was formed on December 1, 2014, after a split from the Mohan Baidya-led Communist Party of Nepal-Revolutionary Maoist (CPN-Revolutionary Maoist).
After facing immense pressure from the Security Forces, the CPN-Maoist-Chand reached a three-point agreement with the Government on March 4, 2021. The agreement stated, inter alia:
Though the Government, according to the agreement, lifted the ban on the party on March 4, 2021, and the Home Ministry directed the Police to release all cadres of the party, reports indicate that around 2,500 cadres are still lodged in different jails. The Government failed to comply with the terms of the agreement as local security agencies warned against rushing the decision to release cadres due to two reasons:
Significantly, there is no mention in the agreement about the party surrendering its arms.
The delay in the full implementation of the agreement has caused resentment in the Chand and this has been articulated on several occasions. On July 4, 2021, Khadga Bahadur Bishwakarma, CPN-Maoist-Chand spokesperson, expressed concerns over the Government ‘indifference’ towards the agreement. The continuing delay remains an issue of concern.
On the other hand, CPN-Maoist-Chand cadres persist in extorting money from people. On January 23, 2022, CPN-Maoist-Chand cadres sent letters to the committees of Bhajani, Ghodaghodi, and Pandaoun forest communities in Kailali District demanding ‘donations’ for the party. According to sources, the party cadres collected NPR 300,000 from the Laxmi Community, NPR 200,000 from the Saraswati Community, NPR 250,000 from the Sayapatri Community, NPR 120,000 from the Soniya Community, NPR 50,000 from Ghodtal Community and NPR 20,000 from the Sadepani Community. Separately, on February 1, 2022, CPN-Maoist-Chand cadres smeared soot on Assistant Forest Officer Bishworaj Pandit’s face at the Pachmudiya Sub-division Office in Kailali District. According to Pandit, he was abused for raising his voice against the donation drive that the party had launched in the region.
Meanwhile, on January 12, 2022, Police received a First Information Report (FIR) in a conflict-era case of enforced disappearance in Dang District. The District Police Office registered the complaint by Krishna Chaudhary from Ghorahi Sub-Metropolitan City-17, whose husband Birju had allegedly been ‘disappeared’ by the then Royal Nepal Army on March 27, 2002, on the charge of being a cadre of the then Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist). He has not been traced since. This is the first FIR to be registered after the formation of two transitional justice commissions in 2015. The Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) and the Commission for the Investigation of Enforced Disappeared Persons (CIEDP) were formed on February 9, 2015, to probe instances of serious violations of human rights and to determine the status of those who disappeared in the course of the armed conflict between the State and the then CPN-Maoist, between February 13, 1996, and November 21, 2006.
Significantly, on December 17, 2021, the Government decided to provide over NPR 2 million in compensation to 29 conflict victims. Meanwhile, on February 6, 2022, CIEDP Chairman Yubaraj Subedi announced that the Government had decided to provide economic relief of NPR 1 million per person to the 93 nearest of kin of those people identified as disappeared during the decade-long armed conflict.
Despite these positive developments, persisting instability in mainstream politics has the potential to spiral out of control, threatening the hard-won peace in the country. Unless the political class resolves its bickering, Nepal is unlikely to remain turmoil free.
Manipur: Troubling Spike Giriraj Bhattacharjee Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On February 20, 2022, two Indo-Tibetan Border Police personnel were injured in an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) explosion in Wangoo Tera area of Kakching District.
On February 12, 2022, an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) was detonated inside the Ukhrul Forest Division Office in the Phungreitang area of Ukhrul town. No casualty was reported in the incident.
On February 11, 2022, a grenade was hurled at the gate of the residence of Mohamad Fakhruddin, a National People’s Party supporter, at Khabeisoi in the Imphal East District.
On January 12, 2022, a Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF) militant, ‘lance corporal’ Pouluanthai Gangmei, was abducted and subsequently killed by the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) in an area between Awangkhul and Warngkhung under the Noney Police Station of Noney District.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), two fatalities have been recorded in the State since the beginning of 2022 (data till February 20, 2022).
On January 5, 2022, one Assam rifles trooper was killed in an IED explosion at Lilong Ushoipokpi Sangomsang, along the Imphal-Moreh Road in Thoubal District.
The South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database indicates that Manipur has already recorded 32 terrorism-linked incidents in 2022 (data till February 20), including two incidents of killing, resulting in two fatalities. During the corresponding period in 2021, the State recorded 23 terrorism-linked incidents, including one incident of killing, resulting in one fatality.
The State recorded a total of 27 fatalities [eight civilians, five Security Force (SF) personnel and 14 militants in 11 incidents of killing through 2021. In 2020, four incidents of killing led to seven fatalities – one civilian, three SF personnel, and three militants. Significantly, fatalities registered in 2020 were the lowest in the State since 1992. Seven incidents resulted in nine fatalities – four civilians and five militants – in 2019; 21 incidents led to 23 fatalities – seven civilians, seven SF personnel, and nine terrorists – in 2018; and 37 incidents resulted in 55 fatalities – 23 civilians, nine SF personnel, 22 terrorists, and one not specified – in 2017. There were 36 fatalities (14 civilians, 13 SF personnel, nine terrorists) in 2016.
Thus, the trend of decline in fatalities established since 2018 was reversed in 2021, even as overall terrorism-linked incidents increased from 113 in 2020 (the lowest number recorded in a year since 2001) to 195 in 2021. There was a total of 250 incidents in 2019.
The State also witnessed four major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) in 2021, resulting in 18 fatalities (six civilians, five SF personnel and seven militants). This was the highest number since 2017, when three major incidents led to 12 fatalities. The year 2020, 2019 and 2018 did not record any major incidents.
In a major incident, on November 13, 2021, five SF personnel, including the commanding officer of Assam Rifles, Colonel Viplav Tripathi, were killed after their convoy came under heavy attack by People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and Manipur Naga People’s Front (MNPF) militants near S. Sehken village under the Behiang Police Station, close to pillar number 43, on the India-Myanmar border, in Churachandpur District. Colonel Tripathi’s wife and son, who were accompanying him, were also killed in the attack. Another five troopers were injured in the attack. This was the worst incident targeting SFs in the State, in terms of overall fatalities, since the June 4, 2015, attack, when militants ambushed a military convoy of the 6th Dogra Regiment of the Indian Army, killing at least 18 Army personnel and injuring 11, at a place between Paralong and Charong villages in Chandel District. The Khaplang faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K), Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL) and Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP), had jointly claimed responsibility.
The remaining 20 fatalities in 2021 were linked to eight groups: 13 fatalities (four civilians and nine militants) to the Kuki National Front-Nehlun (KNF-N), Kuki National Liberation Army (KNLA), Liberation Tigers of Tribals (LTT), Socialist Democratic Front of Kukiland (SDFK), all non-Suspension of Operation (non-SoO) Kuki groups; three fatalities (all militants) were linked to linked to SoO Kuki groups – the Kuki Revolutionary Army and United Kuki Liberation Front (UKLF); two fatalities (one civilian and one militant) to the Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF) and Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM), both Naga groups; and one fatality (one militant) to the United National Liberation Front (UNLF), a Valley-based group. One civilian fatality remained unattributed.
Through 2021, the Valley-based insurgent groups [UNLF, PLA, People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), KYKL and KCP], did not engage in peace talks, remained active and mostly operated out of the Myanmar. The November 13 ambush by the PLA and MNPF highlighted the potential danger these groups pose, especially after the February 1, 2021, coup d'état in Myanmar. Intelligence reports indicate that nearly 300 Valley-based insurgent groups’ cadres are currently stationed across the India-Myanmar border and are fighting the anti-coup forces on behalf of Tatmadaw (Myanmar Army).
Further, UNLF continued with efforts to revive its organization. At its 9th General Assembly held between December 21 and 28, 2021, it declared its ‘8th Central Committee’ that would oversee the group’s activities between 2022 and 2025, with N.C. Koireng as its ‘chairman’. Other prominent members include N. Thabal as ‘vice chairman’, N. Lancha as ‘general secretary’ and M. Chaoba as ‘Chief of Army Staff-Manipur People’s Army (COAS-MPA).’ Earlier, on February 15, 2021, the UNLF ‘Central Committee’ had expelled its former ‘chairman’ Khundongbam Pambei from the organisation for his ‘anti-party activities’ and ‘counter-revolutionary charges.’
Meanwhile, on February 14, 2022, Union Defense Minister Rajnath Singh appealed to the militants in Manipur stating, “we are ready for a dialogue with insurgent groups because all the problems vexing this region, be it unemployment or poverty, should be resolved.” However, two-days later, on February 16, 2022, KYKL ‘chairman’ N. Oken asserted, “social and cultural identities have been gradually diluted" due to Hinduization and warned that "it is self-evident that if we continue to be a part of India under its colonial rule, we will cease to exist as a people." Clearly, the Government’s efforts to bring rebel groups on board are unlikely to fructify unless the fear of loss of identity and issues of development are adequately addressed.
On the other hand, the long-drawn negotiations/peace process with the Hill-based groups – the NSCN-IM and Kuki militant conglomerates [Kuki National Organisation (KNO) and United People's Front (UPF)] – are yet to see a conclusion. While talks with the NSCN-IM began in 1997 and continue without a final outcome, dialogue with the KNO and UPF began in 2008. The SoO with Kuki groups is periodically extended. The current extension is valid through February 28, 2022.
On August 2-3, 2021, NSCN-IM enforced a 12-hour total shutdown in the ‘Naga areas’ of Manipur to protest against the “failure of the Centre” to fulfil the 2015 Framework Agreement During the duration of the shutdown shops and business establishments remained closed.
Moreover, the Hill-Valley divide remains and is aggravated periodically. The latest point of friction is the Manipur (Hill Areas) Autonomous District Councils Bill 2021. While Hill-based civil society groups want it for “equal development” the Valley-based groups oppose it, arguing that the provisions are against “co-existence and equitable sharing,” and could lead to the “bifurcation” of the state. The Bill has been put in cold storage for now.
Further, the drug trafficking routes covering Manipur complicate the security situation. According to media reports, the November 13, 2021, ambush on Colonel Viplav Tripathi and his convoy was a reaction to his pro-active approach on drugs and weapons smuggling cases, under the 'Ruihhlo Do: A War Against Drugs’, during his stint in Mizoram, which upset the militants. Indeed, the Police registered a total of 313 drug related cases in 2021 and made 467 arrests. The prominent cases of drugs recoveries in 2021 included:
December 7: Drugs worth over INR six billion were seized from drug smugglers in Imphal, Manipur, and the border town of Moreh in Tengnoupal District.
December 4: Security Forces seized 100,000 Yaba tablets valued at INR 50 million from a vehicle moving from Moreh to Pallel in Tengnoupal District.
Indeed, in an interview, on November 17, 2021, Manipur Chief Minister N. Biren Singh asserted, “I am totally for war on drugs. Manipur falls within the Golden Triangle taking advantage of which this smuggling is taking place. Enemy increases because of such actions.”
There is an urgent need for greater vigilance to tackle drugs and arms smuggling in Manipur. Further, the long-drawn negotiations with Hill-based groups need to be brought to a conclusion in good faith. For, the Valley-based groups, cooperation with Myanmarese authorities remains crucial. Finally, any arrangement that sustains the Hill-Valley divide needs to be effectively countered, and sentiments on both sides need to be assuaged.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia February 14-20, 2022
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
Jharkhand
Odisha
India (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
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The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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