South Asia Terrorism Portal
Tripura: Gains Trump Politics Giriraj Bhattacharjee Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On March 4, 2022, Uttar Bihar Tripura aka Wathai, a militant of the Parimal Debbrama faction of the National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT-PD), surrendered before the Assam Rifles and Military Intelligence. Uttar Bihar joined NLFT-PD in March 2021 and received two months basic training at the New Zupui Camp, Bangladesh, to operate a M16 Rifle, 9mm Pistol and AK-47.
On January 1, 2022, two militants of the Biswamohan Debbrama faction of the NLFT (NLFT-BM) surrendered before the Border Security Force (BSF).
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), a total of 10 militants have surrendered in 2022 thus far (data till March 13). 23 militants had surrendered in 2021 and seven in 2020. Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on insurgencies in the Northeast, a total of 3,791 militants have surrendered in the State.
Though no militant has been arrested in 2022 thus far, SFs arrested 14 militants in 2021, in addition to 12 in 2020. On March 12, 2021, Parimal Debbarma, the chief of NLFT-PD, was arrested in Aizawl District (Mizoram). A total of 1,090 militants have bene arrested since March 6, 2000.
The last militant fatality in the state was recorded way back on July 23, 2012, when one National Liberation Front of Tripura (faction not identified) militant was killed at Majimonipur, 15 kilometers from the Raishyabari Police Station in Dhalai District.
Worryingly, however, the State recorded two Security Force (SF) fatalities in 2021. On August 3, 2021, suspected militants from the NLFT-BM killed two BSF personnel in an ambush in an area under the Chamanu Police Station in Dhalai District. The previous fatal incident targeting the SFs was on November 17, 2014, when a BSF trooper, identified as Adil Abbas, and a civilian driver, identified as Himari Rangtor, were killed, when suspected NLFT (faction not identified) militants ambushed their vehicle in a remote area bordering Pusparam Para under the Vangmoon Police Station in North Tripura District.
The last civilian fatality in the State was recorded on December 14, 2017, when the body of a former NLFT militant was recovered from Tuikrama Lake in Sepahijala District. According to the Police, he was killed following a dispute over sharing of money from the sale of several sophisticated arms stolen from the ‘armory’ of the All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF), to a drug smuggling gang in Nagaland.
At peak, Tripura had recorded a total of 514 fatalities, including 453 civilians, 16 SF personnel and 45 militants, in 2000. A maximum of 50 SF personnel were killed in 1997, while a high 74 militant deaths was recorded in 2004. For 12 consecutive years (1993 to 2004) the State registered three-digit fatalities. In the subsequent five years (2005 to 2009), fatalities dropped into the double digits: 70 (2005), 70 (2006), 35 (2007), 28 (2008) and 12 (2009). Of the 12 years since 2010 (2010 and 2021), no fatality was recorded in six (2013, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020), while the remaining six recorded single digit fatalities: three (2010), one (2011), three (2012), four (2014), one (2017) and two (2021).
Meanwhile, Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) elections were successfully held on April 6, 2021. No militant linked violence was reported during the polls. TTAADC covers 7,132.56 square kilometers of the total 10,300 square kilometers area of the State, nearly 70 per cent.
Further, the first phase of Bru settlement in Tripura has been completed. According to a February 10, 2022, report, 1,454 Bru families were settled permanently in Tripura. The work on the next two phases is under process. Manas Dev, Officer on Special Duty for Tripura Bru Rehabilitation and Relief Project disclosed,
Over 30,000 Bru tribesmen from nearly 5,000 families were displaced from Mizoram to Tripura in 1997 following the killing of a Mizo Forest guard, allegedly by Brus, and subsequent violence.
After numerous failed efforts to resettle them in Mizoram, a three-phase process to permanently settle them in Tripura commenced on April 19, 2021, after the signing of the January 16, 2020, Bru-Reang agreement, between the Governments of India, Tripura and Mizoram, and Bru-Reang representatives. In the agreement it was decided to settle the families permanently in Tripura.
While there are clear indications of the consolidation of a peaceful milieu in the State, grave dangers are emerging as a result of rising ethnic identity-based political mobilization.
Significantly, the Tipra Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance (TIPRA) emerged victorious in the 2021 TTAADC election fought on polarizing issues such as the creation of ‘Greater Tipraland.’ On June 25, 2021, the TIPRA-led Council passed a resolution calling for the creation of ‘Greater Tipraland’. TIPRA chairman Pradyot Bikram Kishore Debbarman declared, “Our existence is in danger today. Greater Tipraland is needed to survive. Even after long years of independence we are deprived…”
The issues raised by TIPRA have negative ethnic connotations, potentially pitting indigenous tribals against Bengalis. Amra Bengali, an organisation that claims to represent Bengali interests in the State, is a vocal opponent of the ‘Greater Tipraland’ idea, and on December 3, 2021, its leadership warned ‘Greater Tipraland’ agitators of ‘consequences’ in case Bengalis were ‘deliberately provoked.’
The genesis of the insurgencies in Tripura can be traced back to the massive influx of Bengali refugees from the then-East Pakistan following Partition, which reduced the indigenous people of the State to a minority status. The ST population which was at 50.09 per cent in the 1941 census came down to 30.09 per cent in the census of 1951. A second wave of mass migration followed the War of Independence in East Pakistan, and the creation of Bangladesh, which brought the tribal population in the State down to just over 28 per cent in 1981 census. The implications of this demographic change manifested themselves in the control over land, control of trade and business, and government jobs in the State. Increasing tribal resentment led to armed ethno-nationalist mobilization against the Bengalis. The insecurity and perceived threat to the tribal identity is now being articulated in terms of the ‘Greater Tipraland’ movement.
Amidst these concerns, the BSF continues to maintain vigil along the Indo-Bangladesh international boundary. BSF has leveraged technology to introduce what it calls the ‘smart surveillance system to enhance border domination in most smuggling- and infiltration-prone areas' at 24 physical locations. Also, as part of strengthening border management, 95 smart surveillance cameras have been installed. Of the 856-kilometer international boundary with Bangladesh in the state, 67 kilometers, stretching across South Tripura, Sipahijala and Dhalai Districts, remain unfenced. In 2021, the BSF arrested at least 221 persons (97 Bangladeshi nationals, 118 Indian Nationals and six from other countries), while illegally crossing the border to enter India. BSF also recovered 88,417 Yaba tablets and 48,200 bottles of Phensedyl, besides other contraband, in 2021.
The peace established in the State now being undermined by the rising politics of ethnic polarization and the un-ending question of political and economic privileges revolving around the vexed ‘insider-outsider’ question. For the moment militancy remains subdued. However, the mishandling of the current situation could easily combine with divisive politics, potentially leading to the revival of the largely discredited militant groups.
Andhra Pradesh: Remnants of a Revolution Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On February 15, 2022, a 17-year-old woman Dalam (armed squad) member of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), whose identity has not been disclosed as she is a minor, surrendered before the Police in East Godavari District. She had joined Maoists rank in 2019.
This is the lone incident of surrender in the State recorded in 2022, thus far (data till March 13). According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 18 Naxalites [Left-Wing Extremists] surrendered in 2021 in Andhra Pradesh (AP), in addition to 24 such surrenders in 2020. The total number of such surrenders since March 6, 2000, when SATP started documenting Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-related violence across the country, was 3,706.
Meanwhile, on January 8, 2022, a CPI-Maoist ‘area committee member’, identified as Korra Singru aka Sundarrao aka Palem Sundarrao aka Joyo (52), was arrested by the Sileru Police at Sapparla junction under Sileru Police Station limits in the G.K. Veedhi Mandal (administrative sub-division) in Visakhapatnam District. Korra Singru had joined Naxalite ranks in 2000 and was involved in over 70 offences in the Visakhapatnam and East Godavari Districts of Andhra Pradesh and the neighboring State of Odisha. The Police seized one country made pistol and two detonators from Singru.
This is the lone incident of arrest reported in 2022, thus far. Security Forces (SFs) had arrested a total of five Naxalites in 2021, and nine in 2020. The total of such arrests stands at 1,540 since March 6, 2000.
Though no Naxalite has yet been killed in 2022, six Naxalites were killed in 2021. On June 16, six Maoists were killed in an exchange of fire with the Greyhounds special force of the Andhra Pradesh Police in the Theegalametta Forest in Koyyuru Mandal under the Mampa Police Station area of Visakhapatnam District. In 2020, one Maoist was killed. A total of 916 Naxalites has been killed in the State since March 6, 2000.
The last fatality in the SF category was reported on May 5, 2017, when a Home Guard, identified as Sheikh Valli, was killed in a landmine blast triggered by the CPI-Maoist cadres on the Lothugedda Junction-Balapam stretch in Visakhapatnam District. Between May 5, 2017, and March 11, 2022, SFs have killed 16 Naxalites, and have arrested 62.
The sheer dominance of SFs on the ground has resulted in improved security for civilians. The last civilian fatality in the State was recorded on March 5, 2021, when CPI-Maoist cadres killed a former Maoist ‘militia member,’ Korra Pilku (35), at Kothapalem village in G. K. Veedhi Mandal, Visakhapatnam District. They accused Pilku of being a ‘Police informer’. This was the lone civilian fatality in the State in 2021, the lowest ever fatality recorded in a year since 1968 which had also recorded one fatality. There were four civilian fatalities in 2020.
In 2021, as in 2020, all the killings were reported from the Vishakhapatnam District. The last fatalities outside Vishakhapatnam were recorded in 2017, when, out of a total of nine fatalities in the year, two were recorded in East Godavari District – one on February 27 and another on February 5.
Meanwhile, an analysis of over ground and underground Maoist activities in AP reinforces an assessment of weakening influence. According to the SATP database, Maoist activities were reported from four Districts in 2021 (AP has a total of 26 Districts). Only Visakhapatnam District fell in the ‘moderately affected’ category, while the remaining three Districts – East Godavari, Guntur, and Krishna – were ‘marginally affected.’ By comparison, in 2020, Maoist activities were reported from six Districts, with Visakhapatnam District in the ‘moderately affected’ category, and the remaining five Districts – Anantapur, East Godavari, Srikakulam, Vijayanagar, and West Godavari – ‘marginally affected’.
On June 19, 2021, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) had included Visakhapatnam in its listing of ‘25 Most Affected Districts’ in eight States across India. Moreover, five Districts of the State – East Godavari, Srikakulam, Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagar, and West Godavari – are covered under the Centre’s ‘Security Related Expenditure (SRE)’ scheme, which funds focused operations against the ultras. The scheme covers 70 LWE-affected Districts in 10 States across the country.
Further, on September 26, 2021, State Home Minister Mekathoti Sucharitha asserted that Naxalites who were earlier active in five districts – East Godavari, Srikakulam, Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagar and West Godavari – were now confined to Visakhapatnam and East Godavari Districts alone, and that LWE numbers had come down from 150 to 50.
Though the Maoist ‘movement’ in the State has weakened significantly, the threat has not been eliminated, as is reflected in UMHA and SATP data, which suggests that the Maoists continue to operate in some areas and continue to make efforts to sustain their ‘movement.’
In a press release on June 30, 2021, V. B. Raj Kamal, Assistant Superintendent of Police, Paderu, asserted that ‘divisional committee member’ Kondru Prabhakar aka Ashok “is arranging funds through ganja trade.” In addition, Srikanth, Baburao, Mohan, Taggupadu Srinu and others were also involved in the ganja trade and were collecting ‘levy’ (extortion money) from contractors.
On July 11, 2021, to keep themselves relevant among the masses, the Maoists extended support to unemployed youth protesting against fewer jobs offered in the job calendar for 2021-2022. Chief Minister Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy had promised 230,000 jobs to solve the unemployment problem in the State, if voted to power. However, on June 18, 2021, almost two years after he came to power (he took oath as Chief Minister on May 30, 2019), the State Government released a ‘job calendar,’ the first of its kind, with just 10,144 jobs, disappointing the unemployed youth. Aruna, the ‘secretary’ of the Maoist’s ‘Visakha East Division Committee’, released an audio tape in Visakhapatnam District, in which she asserted that, since this was a genuine cause, the CPI-Maoist was supporting the youth. Aruna demanded that the State Government release a new job calendar with 230,000 jobs notified, as promised.
On August 10, 2021, the CPI-Maoist gave a call for a State-wide bandh (general shut down strike) in protest against the illegal mining of laterite and bauxite in the Agency areas of Visakhapatnam and East Godavari Districts. The Maoists urged tribals from the affected villages to take a militant stand, to drive away the mining companies and to destroy the trucks and heavy earthmoving equipment that were being used for mining. The Maoists also urged the tribals not to allow the Police to organise volleyball tournaments and medical camps in the interior villages, arguing that, in the garb of these activities, the Police was actually trying to extend road-construction to facilitate mining and aid the illegal mining companies. The Maoists also demanded that the construction of roads in these areas be stopped. Nonetheless, according to the State Police, the August 10, 2021, bandh call evoked an unenthusiastic response in the Visakha Agency region. No untoward incident was reported and all shops and establishments remained open, while public transport functioned as usual. Moreover, there was no response to the bandh in Maoist-prone Mandals such as G.K. Veedhi, Pedabayalu, Munchingput or Chintapalli, in the Visakhapatnam District.
On March 8, 2022, Aruna, issued a threat letter warning Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) Kottagulli Bhagya Lakshmi of Paderu Constituency from the Yuvajana Shramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) to resign and leave the party. The letter alleged that Bhagya Lakshmi took lakhs of rupees and gave permission for bauxite mining at Chaparatipalem under the G.K. Veedhi Mandal in Visakhapatnam District.
The AP Police has succeeded in establishing dominance and marginalizing the rebels, despite significant gaps in capacities and deployment in the State. According to the latest Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data, as on January 1, 2020, the AP Police had a strength of 59,553 policemen, as against a sanction of 73,894, yielding a deficit of 19.40 per cent. The Police/Area Ratio (number of policemen per 100 square kilometres) in AP was just 36.55, against the national average of 63.63. Both the State and national averages for the Police/Area ratio were well below sanctioned levels, at 45.36 and 79.80, respectively. The police-population ratio (police personnel per 100,000 population) in AP was 113.68, significantly below the inadequate national average of 155.78. Moreover, the sanctioned strength of the apex Indian Police Service (IPS) Officers in the State was 144, but just 115 officers were in position. The deficit of 20.13 per cent substantially weakened executive supervision of the Force.
Andhra Pradesh’s excellent performance in dealing with the Maoist menace is visible on the ground, with the rebels losing influence in the most prominent among their erstwhile strongholds. The Maoists are, however, not an entirely spent force, and their activities in bordering States persist, even as their efforts to revive influence and activities in AP continue. These last vestiges of the Maoist ‘revolution’ need yet to be brought under control.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia March 7-13, 2022
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
India (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
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The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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