South Asia Terrorism Portal
TTP: Desperate Negotiations Tushar Ranjan Mohanty Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On May 23, 2022, two soldiers were killed when terrorists attacked Security Forces (SFs) in the Mir Ali area of North Waziristan District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).
On May 17, 2022, terrorists shot dead two Policemen in the Ghazni Khel area of Lakki Marwat District. The terrorists managed to escape along with the weapons of the dead Policemen.
On May 15, 2022, three Pakistan Army soldiers and as many children were killed in a suicide blast in the vicinity of Miranshah in the North Waziristan District. In a brief statement, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) identified the killed soldiers as Lance Havaldar Zubair Qadir, Sepoy Uzair Asfar and Sepoy Qasim Maqsood from Multan. The killed children were identified as 11-year-old Ahmed Hassan, eight-year-old Ahsan and four-year-old Anum.
On April 20, 2022, three Policemen were killed in a gun attack by terrorists at Bara Ajab Talab check post in Khyber District. One terrorist was also killed in retaliatory fire by the Policemen.
On April 13, 2022, seven soldiers were killed when terrorists ambushed an SF vehicle in the Data Khel tehsil (revenue unit) of North Waziristan District. The terrorists used a rocket-propelled grenade launcher and assault guns in the attack.
On April 11, 2022, five Policemen were killed in a rocket attack carried out by terrorists on a Police van near Chowk Yadgar of the Kulachi area in Dera Ismail Khan District. Deputy Superintendent Police (DSP) Kulachi Fazal Subhan sustained serious injuries.
In the 58 days since the launch of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP’s) Operation Al-Badar on April 2, 2022, (data till May 29, 2022) at least 39 SF personnel have been killed, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP). During the 56 days preceding, terrorists had killed 24 SF personnel in KP.
On March 30, 2022, TTP had announced the launch of its operation against law-enforcement agencies from the start of Holy month of Ramadan, which commenced on April 2, 2022. The statement declared that the main target of the offensive would be Pakistani SFs and their facilitators. The statement added that Operation Al-Badr would include suicide attacks, ambushes, bombings, counter-attacks, targeted attacks, as well as laser and sniper attacks. Though the statement did not mention whether the Operation would cover the whole of Pakistan or only KP, attacks have only been reported from KP, clearly suggesting that the Province was the focus of the operation.
At a time when the TTP has increased its attacks on the SFs in KP, the Pakistani establishment is making efforts to buy peace.
Indeed, a 10-day ceasefire agreement, starting May 1, had been reached between the Army and the TTP on the account of Eid (May 2, 2022). On May 10, TTP announced that the ceasefire had been extended by another five days and stated that new directives would be issued on May 16. Though no announcement was made on May 16, on May 18, TTP announced that the ceasefire had been extended till May 30. In a statement shared with the media via Whatsapp, TTP 'spokesman' Mohammad Khurasani, declared,
Talking about the committees Khurasani disclosed that a 32-member committee of the Mehsud tribe in South Waziristan and a 16-member committee from the Malakand division held talks with the TTP on May 13 and 14. He also revealed that the Afghan Taliban was mediating between the two sides.
On the same day, the Afghan Taliban also confirmed the talks in Kabul, as Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid, tweeted,
Neither the Pakistan Government nor the Army has yet given any official statement on the on-going peace-talks.
Meanwhile, according to media reports, the Pakistan Government has released 30 TTP jail inmates, including Hazrat Ali, Laiq Shah and Shahabullah from North Waziristan District; Eid Muhammad, Noor Aslam and Gulzar Khan from South Waziristan District; Sher Zaman, Muhammad Anwar, Muhammad Hamayun, Bahram, Samiullah and Aijaz from Dera Ismail Khan District; Shah Zareen and Saeedullah from Bajaur District; Akbar Zeb, Fazl Haq, Fazl Rabbi and Mehboob Ali from Swat District; Bakht Nabi, Khan Zareen and Ahmed Shah from Shangla District; Muhammadullah from Khyber District; and Ahmed Shah, Saeed-ul-Islam, Abdullah, Rahimullah, Zakirullah and Ahmed Saeed from Dir District. It is significant that no official sources have yet confirmed the news regarding the release of the TTP militants.
Earlier also, the Pakistan Government had tried to negotiate peace, with the TTP with the help of the Afghan Taliban. As a result, both sides agreed on a month-long ceasefire between November 9 and December 9. However, on December 9, TTP declined to extend the ceasefire with the Government, alleging that the state forces had not only failed to implement the decisions reached between the two sides but, on the contrary, had conducted raids in Dera Ismail Khan, Lakki Marwat, Swat, Bajaur, Swabi and North Waziristan, killing and detaining many TTP fighters. TTP consequently declared, “Under these circumstances, it is not possible to extend the ceasefire.” Mufti Noor Wali Mahsud announced an end to the ceasefire and asked his fighters to resume attacks.
During the month-long ceasefire in 2021, though five SF personnel were killed in three terrorism-related incidents, no TTP terrorist had been killed, according to data available in open sources. Indeed, during the ceasefire, the Government reportedly released more than 100 TTP prisoners as a “goodwill gesture,” to reciprocate the group’s acceptance of the ceasefire. While Islamabad is evidently trying to buy peace with TTP, particularly in KP, as well as across the country at large, with the help of the Afghan Taliban, the possibilities of success remain limited.
It is useful to recall here that TTP, which had lost some of its strength after Operation Zarb-e-Azb launched on June 15, 2014, in the aftermath of the Jinnah International Airport attack on June 8, 2014 and subsequent operations, has engineered a resurgence coinciding with the Afghan Taliban’s ascendency in Afghanistan. Since the signing of the Doha Deal between the Afghan Taliban and the US on February 29, 2020, TTP started re-emerging as a major challenge for the security establishment in Pakistan, but Islamabad kept ignoring the threat, believing that it would be an easy task for it to handle once the Taliban assumed power. Contrary to the Pakistan military establishment’s assessment, violence is now escalating. According to Pakistan, TTP operates out of the bordering areas of Afghanistan, and Rawalpindi assumed that its ‘proxy’ – the Afghan Taliban – would help crush the rebel movement once in power.
While TTP’s rampage still continues, the Government’s decision to sit again to negotiate with TTP for peace reconfirms that Pakistan is approaching the problem from a position of weakness. Rawalpindi’s hand has weakened further due to the ongoing political and economic crisis in the country. The negotiations with TTP, with the Afghan Taliban mediating, are desperate measures that are likely to fail once again.
Fractious Polls Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On May 13, 2022, at least two persons were killed and 24 were injured in four poll-related incidents of violence in different parts of the country. Some of the prominent incidents of the day included:
Further, between February 7, 2022, the day of the announcement of the Local Body Elections and a day before the polling on May 13, 2022, at least 37 persons were injured in three separate incidents of clashes/violence reported from across the country.
Some of the prominent incidents reported during this period included:
May 11: More than 20 persons were injured in a clash between cadres of the NC and CPN-Maoist Center at Bhorle in Nilkantha Municipality-6 in Dhading District of Province No. 3. Interestingly, an election alliance was forged between the NC, the CPN-Maoist Center, and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Socialist (CPN-Unified Socialist) in the district.
May 11: A bomb exploded at Milanchowk in Butwal in the Rupandehi District of Province No. 5. Though no one claimed responsibility, a pamphlet with the name CPN-Maoist Center was found on the spot, in which the people were asked to boycott the local elections.
May 6: Over a dozen Police personnel and five cadres of the NC and CPN-Unified Socialist were injured when their cadres clashed at Pandusen in the Budhinanda Municipality of Bajura District in Province No. 7.
The second Local Body Elections were held in a single phase on May 13, 2022, to elect 35,221 members to 753 local level units in six metropolitan cities, 11 sub-metropolitan cities, 276 municipalities and 460 rural municipalities.
Significantly, the 2015 Nepal Constitution instituted a three-tier federal structure, with each of the federal, provincial, and local level units functioning autonomously.
It is useful to recall here that the first Local Body Elections after the promulgation of the new 2015 Constitution, were held in the three-phased elections on May 14, June 28, and September 18, 2017.
Between the date of announcement (February 20, 2017) and final day of polling (September 18, 2017)], of the first Local Body Elections, 11 persons were killed and 97 were injured in 19 separate incidents of clashes/violence reported from across the country.
Meanwhile, according to the Election Commission (EC), so far, (data till May 30, 2022), 35,045 people’s representatives had been elected. Results of 176 seats were yet to come. The NC had the maximum number of people’s representatives, at 13,758; followed by the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML), 11,893; CPN-Maoist Center, 5,045; Janata Samajbadi Party-Nepal (JSP-N), 1,539 and other parties and independents, 2,810.
While political violence itself represents a dangerous trend, the clashes among the members of the five-party Joint Ruling Alliance, which includes NC, CPN-Maoist Centre, CPN-Unified Socialist, Janata Samajbadi Party-Nepal and Rastriya Janamorcha, does not augur well for Nepal's polity and overall security. Significantly, despite being in government, these parties failed to forge a comprehensive alliance and contest the elections together. On April 25, 2022, Minister for Urban Development and leader of the CPN-Unified Socialist, Ram Kumari Jhakri, thus wrote on Twitter,
The violent clashes among members of these groups during elections may lead to a further weakening of the alliance and collapse of the government at the Centre, which has never been in a settled state since its assumption of power on July 13, 2021. Further destabilization may create serious security issues for the country, as fringe extremist elements continue to threaten violence, and are likely to act on their warnings if a sufficiently 'favourable' environment comes into being as a result of the fractious parties operating within the constitutional mandate.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia May 23-29, 2022
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
Manipur
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Maharashtra
India (Total)
PAKISTAN
KP
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
Relations between the Al-Qaeda and the Taliban leaders have become closer, UNSC report: The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) report compiled by the monitoring team of the 1988 UNSC Taliban sanctions committee mentions that relations between the Al-Qaeda and the Taliban leaders have recently become closer. According to the report, Al-Qaeda has gained more freedom with the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has also renewed his allegiance to Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada. Hasht e Subh Daily News, May 29, 2022.
Supreme Council of National Resistance for the Salvation of Afghanistan rejects the Taliban's invitation to return: The members of the Supreme Council of National Resistance for the Salvation of Afghanistan issued a statement on May 27, calling the Taliban's recent actions, including convening the Loya Jirga and forming the Return and Communications with Former Afghan Officials and Political Figures Commission, a "ploy" that they "firmly reject". The Khaama Press, May 29, 2022.
Dushanbe meeting calls for inclusive Afghan Government: Participants at the Regional Security Summit on Afghanistan, which was hosted in Dushanbe, Tajikistan issued a joint statement on May 28 calling for the formation of an inclusive Government, respect for human rights, and a fight against terrorist groups and narcotics in Afghanistan. National security advisers or their representatives from eight countries who attended the meeting expressed concerns over the current situation in Afghanistan. Tolo News, May 29, 2022.
Recent restrictions on women have fuelled international opposition to the Taliban's administration, says US Special Representative for Afghanistan Thomas West: According to the US Special Representative for Afghanistan, Thomas West, recent restrictions on Afghan women have fuelled international opposition to the Taliban's interim administration. The US Special Representative for Afghanistan, wrote on his Twitter handle, that he met with Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, and during the discussion, highlighted the international community's growing and "unified opposition" as a result of recent restrictions on Afghan women and girls. The Khaama Press, May 26, 2022.
Prolonged uncertainty of repatriation is enticing Rohingyas to get involved in criminal activities, says PM Sheikh Hasina: On May 24, Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina said the prolonged uncertainty of repatriation is enticing Rohingyas to get involved in criminal activities. "They (Rohingyas) are becoming frustrated due to protracted uncertainty over their repatriation which has a potential risk as it entices many of them to get involved in criminal activities," PM Hasina said. Prothomalo, May 25, 2022.
26 foreign terrorists killed in Jammu and Kashmir since January, says IGP Vijay Kumar: Security Forces (SFs) have killed 26 foreign terrorists affiliated to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) outfits in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) during the first five months of the year, Inspector General of Police (IGP), Kashmir Zone, Vijay Kumar said on May 26. "So far, 26 foreign terrorists have been neutralised this year," IGP Vijay Kumar said adding that 14 terrorists are from JeM, while 12 were affiliated to LeT. Daily Excelsior, May 27, 2022.
Naga flag not negotiable, says NSCN-IM: On May 26, National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) in its editorial of the monthly news bulletin 'Nagalim Voice' stated that 'It is unthinkable for NSCN to accept Naga national flag as cultural flag as hinted by Government of India'. The statement comes against the backdrop of reports emanating from Nagaland that the Government of India (GoI) was not averse to allow the Naga national flag for cultural purposes and also incorporate a mutually acceptable part of the Naga constitution in the Constitution of India. Nagaland Post, May 27, 2022.
Dawood Ibrahim used to live near Ghazi Shah Peer in Karachi, according to ED investigation: Dawood Ibrahim used to live in Karachi (Pakistan) near Ghazi Shah Peer Mazaar, and Chhota Shakeel used to work for him, the latter's brother-in-law and gang member Saleem Qureshi alias Salim Fruit told the Enforcement Directorate (ED) during an interrogation on May 24. During interrogation, Salim revealed that Chota Shakeel is in Karachi. Abp Live, May 24, 2022.
Intelligence Bureau sounds alert about the possibility of terrorists targeting railway tracks in Punjab: An Intelligence Bureau report has sounded an alert about the possibility of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) backed terrorists targeting railway tracks in Punjab to cause major accidents. The Intelligence says that the ISI has directed the Khalistan groups to undertake this operation and in particular target the goods trains. One India, May 25, 2022.
Maldives urgently needs legislation to protect the rights of victims of terrorism, says the UN Special Rapporteur Fionnuala Ní Aoláin: On May 24, the United Nations (UN) Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms while countering terrorism, Fionnuala Ní Aoláin stated that the Maldives urgently needs legislation to protect the rights of victims of terrorism. She made this statement while briefing the media on her preliminary findings during her recent visit. Raajje, May 25, 2022.
Afghanistan-based TTP threat to Pakistan, highlights new UN report: A new United Nations (UN) report, released on May 27, once again highlighted the threat posed to Pakistan by the Afghanistan-based Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the terrorist group which has conducted numerous deadly "cross-border" attacks and operations. The report - 13th in the series - by the UN Security Council Monitoring team on Afghanistan states that the that TTP remains focused on long-term campaign against the Pakistani state with its several thousand fighters in Afghanistan. The Express Tribune, May 29, 2022.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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