South Asia Terrorism Portal
Madhya Pradesh: Creeping Consolidation Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On June 29, 2021, Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres abducted and killed a villager, identified as Bhagchand Adme (45), a resident of Bamhani village under the Bithali Police outpost, situated near the Kanha National Park, in Balaghat District. A hand-written pamphlet was found near his body, claiming that Bhagchand was an ‘informer’ and was therefore ‘sentenced to death.’ Balaghat, Superintendent of Police (SP), Abhishek Tiwari, disclosed that cadres of the Malanjkhand ‘area committee’ were suspected to be behind Adme’s killing.
Earlier, on the intervening night of February 12 and 13, 2021, two CPI-Maoist cadres were killed in an exchange of fire with the Security Forces (SFs) in a forest near Lalpur village under the Motinala Police Station limits in Mandla District. After the encounter, during search operation, the bodies of a male Maoist identified as Dulla aka Manu and a female Maoist identified as Geeta, both working as ‘area committee members’ (ACMs) of the ‘Dakshin Bastar Vistar Platoon 3’, were recovered. They were carrying a reward of INR 300,000 each from the Madhya Pradesh (MP) Government and INR 800,000 each by the Chhattisgarh Government. SFs also recovered .303, .313, and .315 bore rifles, Naxal [Left Wing Extremist, LWE] literature, and daily use material from the encounter spot.
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least three fatalities (one civilian and two Maoists) have been recorded in two LWE-linked incidents of killing in MP in the current year, thus far (data till July 25, 2021). One (civilian) fatality was recorded during the corresponding period of 2020, while in the remaining period of 2020, three Maoist fatalities was recorded. Four fatalities (two civilians and two Maoists) were recorded in 2019; one each in 2018 (Maoist) and in 2017 (civilian); two fatalities (both civilians) in 2016; one each in 2012 (Maoist) and in 2010 (SF); and five fatalities (two civilians and three SFs) in 2000. There were no fatalities in 2015, 2014, 2013, 2011, and between 2009 and 2001. Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on LWE-linked incidents of killing, the first fatality was reported on April 20, 2000, when Naxalites laid an ambush on a Police party, killing two Policemen and injuring another, in Balaghat District. According to the SATP database, since March 6, 2000, MP has thus recorded at least 22 fatalities (nine civilians, four SF personnel and nine Maoists) in 17 LWE-linked incidents of killing thus far (data till July 25, 2021).
During this period, at least one incident of explosion (without any casualty) has been recorded. One incident of assault has also been reported. Six incidents each of arson and bandh (shutdown strike/ blockade) calls were also recorded. Moreover, on at least 21 occasions, SFs recovered arms and ammunition hidden by the rebels.
Since March 6, 2000, at least 70 Maoists have been arrested, including three in 2021, and 15 Maoists have surrendered. The last surrender was reported on June 6, 2013.
A total of 78 LWE-linked incidents have been reported from the state, of which Balaghat accounted for 56 incidents, including 14 killing incidents resulting in 17 fatalities (seven civilians, three SFs personnel, and seven LWEs); followed by Mandla which recorded three incidents including one killing incident resulting in two fatalities (both LWEs)]; and Konta in the present Sukma District of Chhattisgarh recorded one killing incident resulting in two civilian fatalities. It is useful to recall that the State of Chhattisgarh was carved out of Madhya Pradesh on November 1, 2000.
According to a June 27, 2021, report, in the latest classification of LWE-affected Districts in the country, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) has included three Districts in MP: Balaghat, Mandla and Dindori. These Districts will be covered by Central funding under the Security Related Expenditure (SRE) scheme, to support focused operations against the LWE. Till 2018, MP only had one District, Balaghat, classified as an LWE-affected District, and in 2018, Mandla was included in the list. These three Districts in MP are among 70 Districts in 10 States currently covered under the SRE scheme.
Explaining the rationale of the inclusion of Dindori, Inspector General of Police (IGP), Anti-Naxal Operations, Sajid Fareed Shapu, observed,
Notably, Dindori is located to the north-east of Mandla and borders Chhattisgarh. Once Maoist activity takes hold in Mandla, it will logically have an impact on Dindori.
Meanwhile, Balaghat District is classified among the 25 ‘Most (LWE) Affected Districts’ in eight States, and Mandla is among the eight Districts in six States classified as ‘Districts of Concern’.
A January 3, 2021, report revealed that around 100 Maoists from neighbouring Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra have sneaked into Balaghat and Mandla Districts to expand their base in the region.
Moreover, a February 27, 2021, report, suggested that, under the constant pressure of the Chhattisgarh Police and anti-Naxal squads, the Maoists have been strategically moving their cadres into the core of the Kanha National Park and Bhoramdeo Tiger Reserve, which are interconnected through a thick patch of forests located on the borders of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
Balaghat, Superintendent of Police (SP), Abhishek Tiwari, stated, on February 14, 2021,
An unnamed intelligence source also disclosed that, since the Kanha-Bhoramdeo area was more difficult to navigate than the terrains of south Bastar in Chhattisgarh, Maoists are using this geography to their advantage, rebuilding their military wing and recruiting new cadres. Further,
Indeed, the impenetrable forests patch of Kanha-Bhoramdeo-Amarkantak offers a significant safe haven for the Maoists.
Earlier, a March 2, 2020, report indicated that the Maoists were engaged in developing a new ‘base area’ in the dense Amarkantak Forest, to operate in Maharashtra, MP and Chhattisgarh (their MMC Zone). The Amarkantak Forest lies at a location where the Vindhya, Maikal and Satpura ranges converge in MP and Chhattisgarh.
Reports indicate that the Maoists in MP are making all efforts to regroup and were in the process of launching a huge attack, but their plans were foiled with the arrest of at least 10 alleged Maoist ‘couriers’ in Balaghat District in July 2021: eight on July 7 and two on July 12. SFs recovered a huge quantity of weapons, including AK-47s, from the possession of these ‘couriers’. Recoveries also included 400 rounds of AK-47 ammunition manufactured by State ordnance factories, a major source of concern.
Facing reverses across their traditional areas of dominance, the Maoists find areas in MP tempting for relocation, potentially bringing the State to the centre of the Maoists’ operational scheme. Coordinating strategy and operations with neighboring States, in tandem with Central Forces, will be necessary to thwart the incipient Maoist design.
NSCN-K-NS: Persisting Challenge Oyindrila Chattopadhyay Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On July 20, 2021, the Working Committee (WC) of Naga National Political Groups (NNPGs) issued a statement questioning Nikki Sumi on his intention "to give peace a chance." The statement of the Working Committee read,
The statement further said,
Earlier, on July 4, 2021, the WC of NNPGs, in a statement, accused the Niki Sumi-led faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K-NS) of indulging in “anti-Naga activities.” Asserting that the time had come to “save the land and people from traitors,” the WC of NNPGs reminded Niki Sumi that “it is better to remain a Naga in flesh, mind and spirit.”
On July 21, 2021, NSCN-K-NS refuted the allegations, stating that “it has not come out to point fingers at others or to create enmity but to pave way for peace to prevail in the land.”
It is pertinent to recall that NSCN-K recorded another split in July 2020, when Niki Sumi, Nyamlang Konyak Naga, and Starson Lamkang were expelled by the Yung Aung faction of NSCN-K (NSCN-K-YA).
Nikki Sumi became the ‘president’ of the new faction while Starson Lamkang Naga became the ‘general secretary’/’Ato Kilonser’ (prime minister). NSCN-K-NS had a cadre strength of about 120 at this stage.
On September 6, 2020, NSCN-K-NS suffered a setback when NSCN-K-YA attacked its general headquarters (GHQ) in Taga, Myanmar. The three leaders of NSCN-K-NS – Nyemlang Konyak, Sumi and Starson – however, escaped unhurt. The attackers seized arms, ammunition, and rations, and took control of the GHQ. This incident, along with the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions on cross border movement on the India-Myanmar border by the Assam Rifles, created operational and logistical challenges for the group, and finally forced the leadership to rethink its future course.
On September 27, 2020, Nyemlang Konyak joined NSCN-Reformation (NSCN-R), after he had surrendered on September 22. NSCN-R is a part of the NNPGs.
On December 23, 2020, Sumi declared that his group has decided to revive ceasefire with the Government, with immediate effect, “by revoking the earlier decision of unilateral abrogation” of the ceasefire in 2015. Back then, the outfit was led by its founder, S.S. Khaplang, who died in 2017. “We expect GoI [Government of India] to respond positively by honouring our decision as a confidence building measure in the larger interests of peace in Nagaland and Naga people in general,” the statement continued. After Khaplang’s death, the NSCN-K named Khango Konyak as its new head. In 2018,Yung Aung ‘impeached’ Khango Konyak and tried to take over the group, which resulted in a split in the group: Yung Aung led NSCN-K-YA and Khango Konyak-led NSCN-K-KK. NSCN-K-KK joined the peace talks with the Government in early 2019.
On December 25, 2020, Starson Lamkang surrendered, along with 52 militants, in the Phek District of Nagaland. Another five cadres have surrendered in the current year.
In the meantime, when reports started emerging that the Sumi faction had surrendered, Sumi asserted, on December 27, 2020, that "we stand strong with our aspiration and commitment for our Naga political rights till the time we achieve it." He clarified, further,
Again, in a press statement issued on December 31, 2020, Niki Sumi declared,
Again, there was no mention of laying down of arms.
Indeed, the extortion activities of the NSCN-K-NS continue on the ground. Some of the recent incidents involving the outfit include:
July 19: One NSCN-K-NS cadre, identified as Meyiwapang aka Wapangmeren, was arrested from the Mokokchung main town area of Mokokchung District in Nagaland on extortion charges. Wapangmeren had extorted a sum of INR 11,000 from two shops in Mokokchung Town. Some demand slips and incriminating documents were seized from his possession.
July 12: Four NSCN-K-NS cadres were arrested from Seitheke Basti of Lower Agri area in Kohima District, Nagaland. Police recovered one AK-47 rifle with three magazines, 77 rounds of live ammunition and INR 11,500 in cash from the possession of the militants.
June 23: 11 NSCN-K-NS cadres were arrested for running an illegal mess and carrying out extortion activities on National Highway, at Thilixu village in Dimapur District, Nagaland.
According to partial data collected by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 27 NSCN-K-NS cadres have already been arrested in the current year, so far (data till July 25, 2021). A total of eight cadres were arrested through 2020, all before Sumi’s reported ‘surrender’. Since July 28, 2020, when NSCN-K-NS was formed, at least 35 NSCN-K-NS cadres have been arrested, including 27 in the current year.
This is why the WC of the NNPGs raised objections over the intentions of the Sumi faction.
Despite this, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) extended the ceasefire agreement with NSCN-K-NS along with NSCN-R and NSCN-K-KK on April 12, 2021, for another year.
Clearly unsettled by the long delay in reaching to a final agreement with the Isak-Muivah faction of the NSCN (NSCN-IM), the Government of India (GoI) is making efforts to rope in all Naga groups into the peace process, without any consideration of the long-term ramifications for the overall outcome of the talks.
Indeed, the NNPGs, which are a vital cog in the entire peace process and are unhappy with the Sumi factions’ actions and intention, have also blamed the GoI. The WC of the NNPGs’ July 4, 2021, statement accused the GoI of “setting a wolf among sheep”, asserted that Niki Sumi had “gone too far,” and warned that “WC will be forced to respond if its integrity and commitment to peace and solution is taken as a sign of weakness.”
The incoherence of GoI’s approach in dealing with Naga groups like NSCN-K-NS is creating uncertainty and instability, jeopardizing the future of the protracted talks process. The Government’s present and lackadaisical approach may further hamper an already derailed peace process.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia July 19-25, 2021
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
Afghanistan
India
Jammu and Kashmir
India (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
Total (India)
PAKISTAN
KP
Total (Pakistan)
Total (South Asia)
Taliban militants control nearly half of District centres of the country, says Chairman of Joint Staff General Mark Milley: On July 21, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley said that Taliban militants now control about half of the country's District centers. "Strategic momentum appears to be sort of with the Taliban," General Mark Milley. Milley said more than 200 of the 419 district centers were under Taliban control. Reuters,July 22, 2021.
Taliban still maintains deep ties with Al Qaeda, JeM, LeT, says President Ashraf Ghani: President Ashraf Ghani on July 21 that the Taliban still has "deep ties to al-Qaeda, Jaish-e-Muhammad [JeM], and Lashkar-e-Taiba [LeT]" and wants Afghanistan to become a safe haven for terrorists. Ariana News, July 22, 2021.
No peace possible until new Government in Afghanistan, says Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shaheen: The Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen said that no peace is possible until the new Government in Afghanistan. Suhail Shaheen in his interview with Associated Press said ceasefire with the Kabul administration (Afghan government) is neither realistic nor a pragmatic move. The Khaama Press, July 23, 2021.
Taliban cannot impose their "will" on the people through military force, says HCNR Chairman Abdullah Abdullah: Chairman of the High Council for National Reconciliation (HCNR) Abdullah Abdullah, said that the Taliban cannot impose their "will" on the people of Afghanistan through military force. Abdullah, in an interview with Al-Jazeera, said, "Taliban cannot convert the whole population of Afghanistan into Taliban. Talibanization of Afghanistan is not acceptable," and maintained that issues can be resolved through peace talks. Ariana News, July 26, 2021.
Pakistan and China call on all Afghan stakeholders to agree to a ceasefire: Pakistan and China on July 24 called on all Afghan stakeholders to agree to a ceasefire and work together to achieve an inclusive peace agreement and political settlement. The call was made by the two sides during a foreign ministers' strategic dialogue in Chengdu in Sichuan Province in China. A statement issued by China and Pakistan said the two countries had reaffirmed their commitment to facilitate and support an "Afghan-led and Afghan-owned" peace and reconciliation process. Ariana News; Dawn, July 26, 2021.
US calls on Taliban to engage in 'serious negotiations': The United States (US) on July 24 called on the Taliban "to engage in serious negotiations" after the group's insistence that they will not agree on ceasefire and peace unless there is an agreement on a new Government in Afghanistan. "We call on the Taliban to engage in serious negotiations to determine a political roadmap for Afghanistan's future that leads to a just and durable settlement," US State Department's deputy spokesperson Jalina Porter said. Tolo News, July 25, 2021.
Afghanistan drawdown will complete by end of August, says US Secretary of Defense Llyod Austin: US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin on July 21 said that the withdrawal of American troops will finish by end of August. "We are still on track to finish up [the retrograde] by the end of August," Austin said at a joint press conference with General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. Meanwhile, General Mark Milley said that all the military operating bases outside of Kabul have been fully transferred to the Afghan Ministry of Defense and the Afghan Security Forces. Tolo News, July 23, 2021.
US Government urges US court to extradite Tahawwur Rana to India: United States (US) has urged a federal court in Los Angeles, US to extradite Pakistani origin Canadian businessman Tahawwur Rana to India. Rana (59) has been declared a fugitive by India and facing multiple criminal charges for his involvement in the 2008 Mumbai terror attackS. He was rearrested on June 10, 2020, in Los Angeles on an extradition request by India. The Free Press Journal, July 20, 2021.
MDP passes resolution calling to declare a state of emergency in Maldives to counter terrorism: The National Council of Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) has passed the resolution submitted by the party's leader Mohamed Nasheed calling to declare a state of emergency in Maldives and to confer special powers to Maldives Police Service in order to counter terrorism and religious extremism. Nasheed has proposed the resolution in connection to the in connection to the May 6, 2021, Male bombing. Sun Online International, July 26, 2021.
Election victories in Maldives were possible only with extremist vote, says Parliament Speaker Mohamed Nasheed: Parliament Speaker Mohamed Nasheed stated that pandering to extremists is often deemed necessary for political expedience in Maldives, especially during elections. In an interview, Nasheed stated, "We have had three elections under the new Constitution. The MDP [Maldivian Democratic Party] won twice - in 2008 and 2018, and President Abdulla Yameen's PPM [Progressive Party of Maldives] won in 2013. All three victories were possible only with the extremist vote." Sun Online International, July 19, 2021.
Communist party leaders call for unification among all communist political parties in the country: The top leaders of the communist parties at a programme organized by the Pushpalal Friendship Centre on the 43rd Pushpalal Memorial Day in Kathmandu on July 23 have univocally called for unification among all communist political parties in the country. Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) senior leader Madhav Kumar Nepal asserted that all communist political parties should be united to safeguard the political movement in the country. The Rising Nepal, July 23, 2021.
CPN-UML Chairperson KP Sharma Oli declares amnesty to all disgruntled leaders: Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) Chairperson KP Sharma Oli addressing a function organized in the capital to mark the Pushpa Lal Memorial Day in Kathmandu on July 22 announced a general amnesty for disgruntled leaders of the party. The CPN-UML chair said, "Recalling that Pushpa Lal Shrestha sowed the seeds of present-day UML and Madan Bhandari cared for and strengthened it, I would like to urge the disgruntled friends to unite for the sake of the party. Amnesty is granted to all." Khabar Hub, July 23, July 14, 2021.
Army troops replace paramilitary and militias at Afghan border: Federal Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed on July 24 said that Pakistan has Pakistan has deployed regular troops along the Pakistan-Afghan border due to the fluid security situation in Afghanistan. Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid said, "Now regular army troops are manning the border after replacing the paramilitary forces. Paramilitary troops including the Frontier Constabulary, Levies, Rangers are deployed at the borders to deal with regular issues including illegal border crossing, smuggling etc." Dawn, July 25, 2021.
UN report highlights increasing TTP threat after unification in Afghanistan: The 28th report of the United Nation (UN) Monitoring Team submitted to the UN Security Council on July 22 said that focuses on the global threat posed by Al Qaeda, Islamic State and related groups, yet again, draws attention to the increasing cross-border terrorist threat to Pakistan from Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operating from Afghan soil. The report reiterates findings of the earlier UN reports that had pointed out similar cross-border terrorist threats posed by the TTP to Pakistan, owing to its re-unification and strengthening in Afghanistan. Geo News, July 25, 2021.
Presidential Commission of Inquiry is not in agreement with calls to repeal PTA: The Presidential Commission of Inquiry for Appraisal of the Findings of Previous Commissions and Committees on Human Rights and the Way Forward handed over its Interim Report to President Gotabaya Rajapaksa at the Presidential Secretariat on July 20. The report said that the Commission is not in agreement with the calls to repeal the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) and highlighted that the PTA should be reformed in line with the laws against the prevention of terrorism in other countries including in the United Kingdom (UK), the President's Media Division said. Daily News, July 16, 2021.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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