South Asia Terrorism Portal
Shattered Hopes Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
In a statement released on Umar Media, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP’s) official web site on November 28, 2022, Mufti Muzahim, the TTP’s ‘Minister of Defence’ announced an end to the seven months-long ceasefire. Muzahim “ordered” TTP forces throughout Pakistan “to launch attacks anywhere in the country” in response to Pakistani military operations. The outfit claimed that it chose to end the ceasefire after “the army and intelligence agencies continue to raid and attack” its forces. “And now our revenge attacks will continue in the whole country,” the TTP statement concluded.
Following quickly, on November 30, at least four people, including a policeman, a woman, her son, and another child, were killed and more than two dozen others, including 21 policemen, sustained injuries in a suicide attack in the Baleli area of Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan. Claiming responsibility for the attack, TTP said that its fighter detonated a car bomb near a customs post to avenge the killing of its leaders.
On December 3, three Police officers were killed when terrorists opened fire on a Police patrol in Nowshera District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). TTP claimed responsibility for the attack.
These two incidents in the wake of the collapse of the TTP’s talks with the Government of Pakistan, suggest that terrorist violence is slated for a major escalation in the days to come.
The end of the ceasefire had been expected for some time, following developments in August 2022. In the last week of August, in an ‘internal memo’ to its ‘commanders’, TTP had directed initiation of "defensive attacks" in response to Pakistan's continued security operations against the group, and had also indicated that the ‘commanders’ report all such attacks, so that Umar Media could issue appropriate statements.
Crucially, three top TTP ‘commanders’, Abdul Wali Mohmand alias Omar Khalid Khorasani, Hafiz Daulat Khan Orakzai and Mufti Hassan Swati, had been killed in the Barmal District of Paktika Province in Afghanistan, on August 7, 2022, when their car hit a roadside mine. Though no one claimed the killings, the TTP blamed “the enemy”, ostensibly referring to the Pakistan Army.
In another incident, on August 7, 2022, a TTP ‘Military Commission’ member from the Bajaur District of Pakistan, Abdul Rashid alias Uqabi Bajauri, was killed in an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attack in the Chowgam area of Kunar Province, Afghanistan. Again, on August 23, 2022, another important TTP ‘commander’, Yasir Parakay, was killed along with three of his associates, in the Spin Boldak town of Kandahar Province, Afghanistan. Parakay had reportedly taken an anti-Pakistan position in the peace talks.
These were the killings that provoked the TTP call for “defensive attacks”.
Indeed, soon after the call for "defensive attack", the TTP claimed four attacks in September 2022:
Concerned at these attacks, the Ministry of Interior had issued a nationwide alert to authorities in October 2022, exhorting them to maintain "extreme vigilance" to counter the increased risk from TTP. The Ministry noted that the risk had increased since the peace talks with TTP had stalled.
Later, in one of the worst attacks claimed by TTP since ‘official’ talks began in May 2022, at least six policemen were killed when terrorists ambushed a police patrol at Lakki Marwat in KP on November 16, 2022.
The TTP had announced an 11-day ceasefire on April 29, 2022, which it extended twice thereafter. Later, on May 31, 2022, it declared an indefinite ceasefire which came to an end on November 28, 2022. The November 28 announcement also ended the ‘official’ talks which were always on shaky ground.
It is useful to recall here that, soon after the Afghan Taliban took over Kabul on August 15, 2021, there was jubilation within the Pakistani establishment over the purported ‘fact’ that their own proxy in Afghanistan was in control, and would help Islamabad control TTP. Optimism was fed further by the fact that the Afghan Taliban did help broker a ceasefire between the two sides – Islamabad and the TTP – which led to the start of the ‘peace talks’ between the two in May 2022, with the Afghan Taliban leadership mediating. The talks, however, began to flounder at the very outset, with the TTP adamant on two principal demands that were unacceptable to Islamabad:
While Islamabad had indicated willingness to accept some (unspecified) reduction of military forces in the erstwhile FATA, it was totally opposed to the demand for the reversal of the merger. For its part, TTP insisted that its demand for the reversal for the FATA merger was non-negotiable.
Not surprisingly, the talks failed to progress. Islamabad sought to pressurise the Afghan Taliban to force TTP to give up its demands and end violence, but failed to realise the truth – that the bonding between the Afghan Taliban and the TTP was stronger than what it presumed, and that, consequently, its hopes were misplaced. Ideologically, the Afghan Taliban and TTP are essentially on the same page, committed to establishing Sharia rule in their respective countries.
Unsurprisingly, there has been a surge in violence in Pakistan since the return of the Taliban in Kabul on August 15, 2021. In the 15 months and 20 days since then, and despite the purported ‘ceasefire’, Pakistan has recorded 434 incidents of killing, resulting in 1,132, fatalities, including 268 civilians, 459 Security Force (SF) personnel and 405 terrorists (data till December 4, 2022). During the corresponding period preceding, there were 757 fatalities including 283 civilians, 250 SF personnel and 224 terrorists.
In KP, in particular, where TTP is the dominant player, over the same period, there were 166 incidents of killing, with 459 dead, including 110 civilians, 155 SF personnel and 193 terrorists. During the corresponding period preceding, in 134 incidents of killing, 327 people, including 110 civilians, 98 SF personnel and 119 terrorists, were killed. Though not every attack has been claimed, it is well established that the TTP has a strong base in KP and most of the attacks have been carried out by the outfit.
The fifth issue of the Pak Institute of Peace Studies (PIPS)’s Paper Series released on October 19, confirms that there has been a surge in violence in Pakistan since the return of the Taliban in Kabul. According to the paper, in 250 terrorist attacks in Pakistan between August 15, 2021, and August 14, 2022, at least 433 people have been killed and 719 wounded, as against 165 attacks that killed 294 people and injured 598, others between August 15, 2020 and August 14, 2021.
The talks between the Pakistan Government and the TTP under the mediation of the Afghan Taliban were, since the very beginning, shrouded in deep uncertainty. The outcome is, consequently, not surprising. Pakistan is likely to experience rising chaos, significantly compounding the present political and economic turmoil.
Odisha: Maoists - Seeking a Safe Haven Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On November 24, 2022, Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres shot dead a 48-year-old man, identified as Lalbati Majhi, in Panchakul village under Sadar Police Station limits in Bhawanipatna in the Kalahandi District. According to reports, while Lalbati was sleeping in his house, he was forcibly taken away by Maoists and killed near the Katlang village. Some posters were left behind at the spot, in which the Maoists claimed that Lalbati was punished since he was working as a ‘Police informer’. They also warned that others in the area who were working as Police informers would be punished soon.
On October 24, 2022, CPI-Maoist cadres killed a youth, Nilakantha Mallick of Tikarpaju village under Baliguda Police limits, suspecting him of being a police informer, in the Kandhamal District. The Maoists left posters claiming responsibility and warning 10 village leaders of similar consequences if they informed the Police about Naxalite [Left Wing Extremist] activities.
On February 15, 2022, CPI-Maoist cadres reportedly killed a man, identified as Kapila Majhi, slitting his throat, because they suspected him of being a ‘Police informer’, in the Kandhamal District. Majhi was abducted by a group of at least 10 armed Maoists from his home late in the night of February 14, and his body, with his throat slit, was recovered the next morning. The Maoists also left some posters near his body.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least five civilians have been killed in the CPI-Maoist’s ‘Kandhamal-Kalahandi-Boudh-Nayagarh (KKBN) division’ in the current year, thus far (data till December 4, 2022). During the corresponding period of 2021, there were two civilian fatalities in the ‘KKBN Division’. No civilian fatality was reported during the remaining period of 2021.
Year
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Total
As the data suggests, civilian fatalities in 2022, with almost a month to go, are the highest in a year since 2019, when there were an equal number of civilian fatalities. Civilian fatalities in the region have risen for the second consecutive year.
The rise in civilian killings and the associated threat by Maoists to the people in the region suggest a Maoist pushback in the ‘KKBN division’ covering the Kandhamal, Kalahandi, Boudh, and Nayagarh Districts of Odisha, at a time when they have lost influence in their erstwhile areas of dominance across India.
In fact, there has been a rise in overall Maoist activities in recent times. According to the SATP database, the ‘KKBN Division’ has recorded 18 Maoist-linked incidents in 2022, as against 14 in 2021. Most recently, on October 24, 2022, armed CPI-Maoist cadres allegedly set ablaze vehicles and other equipment used in road construction work, around 85 kilometres from Phulbani, in the Jargi village under the Sudra Gram Panchayat (village level local self-Government institution) in Kandhamal District. The Police disclosed that about 20 to 25 Maoists, including women cadres, set fire to two tractors, two earth movers and other equipment that were being used for road construction.
The ‘KKBN division’ spreads over an area of 22,562 square kilometers, has a forest cover of 11,604 square kilometres, (about 51.43 per cent of the total area), is surrounded by Maoist-affected Districts of Odisha and Chhattisgarh, offering decisive tactical advantages to the extremists. The ‘KKBN division’ shares its borders with Gajapati, Koraput, Nabarangpur and Rayagada in the south; Angul, Bolangir and Subarnapur to the north; Cuttack, Ganjam and Khordha to the east; and Nuapada, all in Odisha; as well as Raipur in Chhattisgarh State, to the west.
Since February 15, 2008, when the ‘division’ recorded its first Maoist-linked fatality, the ‘division’ has accounted for a total of 112 fatalities, including 50 civilians, 23 Security Force (SF) personnel, and 39 Maoists (data till December 4, 2022). During this period (February 15, 2008, and December 4, 2022), Odisha has recorded a total of 799 fatalities (336 civilians, 176 SF personnel and 287 Maoists). With 112 fatalities, the ‘KKBN division’ alone accounted for 14.01 per cent of total Maoist-linked fatalities in the State.
Taking a serious note of the security situation in two districts of the ‘KKBN division’ – Kandhamal and Kalahandi – the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), on June 19, 2021, included them on the list of ‘25 Most Affected Districts’, from eight States across India. Further, the Kandhamal and Kalahandi Districts are also included among the 70 Naxalite-affected Districts in 10 States across India, covered under the Centre’s Security Related Expenditure (SRE) scheme, which funds focused operations against the LWE insurgents.
Though it is a fact that the last SF fatality in the region was reported on September 9, 2020, when two Special Operations Group (SOG) commandos and five Maoists were killed in an exchange of fire between the Maoists and an anti-Maoist operations team in a forest area in Kalahandi District, the rise in civilian fatalities over the past couple of years clearly indicates a greater Maoist focus on the region.
While an operational escalation on the part of SFs is, consequently, necessary, the number of Maoists neutralized has gone down from 13 in 2020 to just two in 2021 and one in 2022. On October 24, 2022, a woman CPI-Maoist cadre was killed in an exchange of fire between the Maoists and SOG personnel in the Sindhi Forest area under Baliguda Police Station limits in Kandhamal District. Following information of the existence of a Maoist camp of the Maoists’ ‘KKBN division’ in the area, SOG personnel conducted a combing operation, during which they had an exchange of fire with the Maoists. In the subsequent search, they recovered the body of a woman Maoist, along with her weapon. However, about 20 Maoists managed to flee. The deceased woman has not yet been identified.
Currently, 21 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) Companies (each of 135 personnel), along with 15 teams of the SOG, 159 District Voluntary Force units, and 20 Indian Reserve Battalion, nine Special Security Battalions, and 31 Odisha Special Striking Force personnel, are deployed in the ‘KKBN division’, to fight the rebels.
The Maoist are certainly struggling to regain their areas of influence, after facing tremendous heat from SFs across the country. With its shared boundaries with other Maoist-affected areas and its forested terrain, the ‘KKBN division’ has becomes more important for the Maoists in their renewed search for a safe haven.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia November 28 - December 4, 2022
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Chhattisgarh
Madhya Pradesh
India (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
PAKISTAN (Total)
SRI LANKA
Total (South Asia)
35 people killed in explosion at Al-Jihad Madrasa in Samngan Province: On November 30, blast in the Al-Jihad Madrasa (Islamic Seminary), in Bandar Road area in capital city of Aybak in Samangan province in, left least 35 dead and 23 injured. According to the officials at the regional hospital in Samangan, most of the victims of this explosion are students. Hasht-e Subh Daily, December 1, 2022.
Taliban bans ultrasound on women in district hospital of Herat Province: The Taliban banned Ultrasound (Television Examinations) for women in district hospital of Herat province. The notice stated, "We sincerely apologize to female clients for sonography." This restriction was imposed at the beginning of this week while the sonography department for men in Herat district hospital is still operating. Hasht-e Subh Daily, November 30, 2022.
USD 40 million in aid reach Kabul, says Da Afghanistan Bank: Da Afghanistan Bank (DAB) announced that an aid package of USD 40 million in cash arrived in Kabul on November 29 as part of the series of humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. DAB called for more cooperation in the field. Last week, two packages worth USD 40 million of humanitarian aid arrived in Afghanistan and were transferred to one of the country's commercial banks. Bakhtar News Agency, November 30, 2022.
Six drones shot down at Punjab border in one month, says BSF: The Border Security Force (BSF)'s Additional Director General (ADG), Western Command, P. V. Rama Sastry in Amritsar District of Punjab on November 30, said that the force is effectively responding to the drone threat at the International Border (IB), and in one month, six drones have been shot down by security personnel. Hindustan Times, December 1, 2022.
India takes over the Presidency of UNSC: India took over the Presidency of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on December 1, promising to be a "voice of reason and a bridge builder" in a time of global polarisation that has pressed it into inaction. "One of our strengths is that we are a voice of moderation of voice of reason and a bridge builder and we will walk the talk in the December presidency," India's Permanent Representative Ruchira Kamboj said after becoming the first Indian woman to head the Council. Latest Ly, December 2, 2022.
CPN-Unified Socialist rules out the possibility of leftist alliance: Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Socialist (CPN-Unified Socialist) Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal on November 29 said he does not see any possibility of the leftist parties coming together and forming a government. Nepal on November 29, said that the stance of the party, a member of the current ruling coalition which also contested the parliamentary and provincial elections as an alliance, means it would be easy for the coalition to form the next government. The Kathmandu Post, November 30, 2022.
Two Children among four persons killed and 24 others injured in TTP suicide attack on Police truck in Quetta city of Balochistan: Two children and one Policeman among four persons killed, while 24 others including 20 Policemen were injured in a suicide blast targeting a Police truck in Baleli area of Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan, in the morning of November 30. Ghulam Azfar Mahesar, Deputy Inspector General (DIG) of Quetta Police, said the attack happened when the Policemen were heading to the Polio workers, part of a nationwide vaccination drive launched November 28. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in a statement claimed responsibility. Geo News;Pakistan Today, November 21, 2022.
TTP ends ceasefire with Government, orders its militants to 'carry out attacks in entire country: The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on November 28 called off the ceasefire agreed with the Government in June and ordered its militants to stage attacks across the country, according to a statement from the outfit. "As military operations are ongoing against mujahideen in different areas [...] so it is imperative for you to carry out attacks wherever you can in the entire country," the statement, which is available with Dawn, said while addressing its militants. The decision, it stated, was taken after "a series of non-stop attacks were launched by the military organisations in Bannu's Lakki Marwat district". The Express Tribune, November 21, 2022.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal
To receive FREE advance copies of SAIR by email Subscribe. Recommend South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) To A Friend