South Asia Terrorism Portal
Jammu and Kashmir: Tense Peace Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
On March 24, 2023, Security Forces (SFs) foiled an infiltration bid and killed one terrorist in the Jabdi area of Tangdhar village, along the Line of Control (LoC), in Kupwara District.
On February 16, 2023, SFs foiled an infiltration attempt by a group of three terrorists in the Saidpora forward area along the LoC, in Kupwara District. While one terrorist was killed, the remaining two managed to escape.
On January 8, SFs foiled an infiltration attempt, killing two unidentified militants near the Line of Control in the Balakote sector of Poonch District.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), six terrorists have already been killed this year, along the LoC in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), while making infiltration attempts, in three separate incidents. In 2022, there were 27 incidents in which 24 infiltrators were killed and four were arrested.
According to official statistics,
Though no official data is available for such incidents between November and December 2019, according to official sources, 19 terrorists were killed during the course of infiltration in 2020 and 12 in 2021. One terrorist was apprehended in 2021. There were 77 infiltration attempts in 2021 and 99 in 2020.
Meanwhile, according to the SATP database, a total of eight militants have been killed in J&K (including during infiltration) in 2023 (all data till March 26). In both 2022 and 2021, 193 terrorists (including during infiltration) were killed. Of 193 terrorists killed in 2022, at least 56 were Pakistanis. From a peak of 2,345 in 2001, terrorist fatalities dropped to a low of 84 in 2012, and increased again for six consecutive years: 100 (2013), 114 (2014), 115 (2015), 165 (2016), 220 (2017), 271 (2018). They declined to 163 in 2019, but increased again to 232 in 2020. Since 1988, a total of 23,918 terrorists (including during infiltration) have been killed in Jammu and Kashmir.
SFs have lost 6,636 personnel since 1988, including one in 2023, 30 in 2022 and 45 in 2021. After recording an all-time high of 638 in 2000, SF fatalities came down to 30 in 2022, the second lowest since 1988. The lowest tally of 18 was recorded in 2012. Fatalities in this category have been on a continuous decline since 2019.
The SFs established a positive overall kill ratio, at 3.6 over a period of 25 years, and have maintained dominance on the ground. The continued dominance of the SFs over an extended period of time is one of the primary reasons behind the relative peace in J&K, despite Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence relentlessly seeking to destabilize the situation through its terrorist proxies.
Indeed, after reaching a high of 4,011 in 2001, overall fatalities registered a continuous decline in successive years till 2012, when they touched a low of 121. Since then, fatalities have maintained a cyclical trend, declining for two consecutive years in 2021 (274 fatalities) and 2022 (253 fatalities). There were 321 fatalities in 2020. Overall fatalities remained in four digits between 1990 and 2006.
According to official data, the number of terrorist incidents peaked at 4,971 in 1992, but came down to 123 in 2022, till November 30.
Nevertheless, concerns persist. One of the most significant among these is the continued targeted attacks on non-locals and minorities. According to the SATP database, terrorists targeted non-local labourers on at least 17 occasions in 2022, resulting in eight fatalities and 34 persons injured. In 2021, there were six such attacks, which resulted in six deaths and two persons injured. Though no such attack was reported in 2020, there were two attacks in 2019 after the ‘abrogation’ of Article 370 on August 5, which resulted in five deaths and one person injured. On October 29, 2019, five migrant workers from the Murshidabad District of West Bengal were shot dead by terrorists in the Kulgam District, while one non-local worker was injured in a second attack.
Thus, since August 5, 2019, terrorists have targeted non-local labourers (from outside J&K) on at least 25 occasions killing 19 non-local workers and injuring another 37 (till December 31, 2022). One such incident, resulting in one injury, has already been recorded in 2023.
According to official data, 11 persons from minority communities in the Union Territory were killed in 2021, three in 2020, six in 2019, three in 2018 and 11 in 2017. Another 14 persons from the minority communities were killed in 2022 (data till November 30). The data does not indicate how many of these were non-locals. According to SATP, another two such killings were reported in December 2022. So far in 2023, eight persons from minority communities have been killed.
Significantly, on January 1-2, 2023, seven civilians, including two children, were killed and several others were injured in two separate terrorist incidents in the Dhangri area of Rajouri District. The five persons killed in the January 1 attack were identified as Satish Kumar (45), Deepak Kumar (23), Pritam Lal (57), Shishu Pal (32), and Prince Sharma. The two killed in the Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blast on January 2 were identified as cousins Vihan Sharma (4) and Samiksha Sharma (16). The police said the IED was planted under a bag by terrorists after the firing incident on January 1. Two civilians had been killed in the district in 2022. Prior to that, the last civilian killing in Rajouri was reported way back in 2013 (two civilians killed).
It was, moreover, after a gap of 11 years that a civilian was killed in Udhampur District. On March 9, 2022, one person was killed and 15 were injured when a low-intensity IED exploded outside a court complex at Slathia Chowk in Udhampur District. The IED blast took place around 1 pm at Slathia Chowk, where fruit and vegetable vendors put up their carts. The injured included a woman, an eight-month-old infant, and a Rajasthan resident. The last civilian killing before this, in the District was reported on May 2, 2011.
Budgam recorded five civilian fatalities in 2022, the highest since 2005, when 18 civilians were killed.
The civilian killings in two districts – Rajouri and Udhampur – in 2022, after a long gap, and the increased number of civilian killings in Budgam, indicate that these areas of J&K, which had been declared terrorism free some years ago, have once again come into the scope of Pakistan-backed terrorist groups. Any geographical extension of violent incidents must raise urgent concerns.
It is to be noted, however, that the situation is not as alarming as is being projected by a strident few. Civilian fatalities were in three to four digits between 1990 and 2007 (in four digits between 1993 to 1996 and in 2001), but have since then remained in two digits. Moreover, and after reaching a recent high of 86 in 2018, they came down to 30 in 2022. There were 36 civilian fatalities in 2021.
Meanwhile, the government’s inability to hold Assembly Elections and restore statehood is providing opportunities to elements inimical to peace, to spread misinformation. For instance, it has been widely propagated that the ruling party at the Centre – the Bharatiya Janata Party – is delaying the elections till the time it feels certain of its victory.
Despite significant overall improvement in the security situation, it is imperative for the government to respond convincingly to such propaganda. Urgent steps are also required to be taken to address the security concerns of non-locals and minorities.
Madhya Pradesh: Maoist Persistence Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On March 17, 2023, Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres put up banners and distributed pamphlets on Lanji Bhilai Marg near the Kandrighat Forest under the Sitapala Police outpost in Balaghat District. One of the banners contain a slogan urging people to keep desist from informing the Police about the Maoists’ movements. In another banner, the Maoists appealed to the Police to stop the special squad from monitoring their movements. The Maoist pamphlets circulated contained slogans against the Government.
On February 19, 2023, Security Forces recovered Naxal [Left Wing Extremism, LWE] literature and other items, along with some explosives, during patrolling, from a Maoist hideout situated on the road from Alakpur to Sariapatera under Birsa Police Station limits in Balaghat District.
These are the two Maoist-linked incidents recorded in the State in 2023, thus far (data till March 26, 2023).
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), there were at least nine Maoist-linked incidents in 2022, as against 14 recorded in 2021. Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on LWE, a total of 95 such incidents have been documented.
Out of nine incidents in 2022, at least five were incidents of killing, resulting in eight fatalities (two civilians and six Maoists). In 2021, out of 14 incidents, three were killing incidents, resulting in five fatalities (three civilians and two Maoists). Since March 6, 2000, the state has recorded a total of 23 incidents of killing resulting in 32 deaths [15 Maoists, 13 civilians, and four Security Force (SF) personnel].
On year-on-year basis, the overall fatalities tally 2022 was the highest since March 6, 2000. The previous high of five was recorded in 2021.
The higher fatalities in these two years were primarily accounted for by the number of Maoists killed. Of the 15 Maoists killed in the state since March 6, 2000, eight were killed in just these two years. All 15 Maoist killings were reported between 2012 and 2022. On the other hand, the last of the total four SF fatalities in the State was recorded on September 22, 2010, when a Madhya Pradesh Police's Hawk Force trooper was killed in a Maoist ambush near Sitapala in Balaghat District.
Meanwhile, no Maoists were arrested in 2022, though SFs arrested four Maoists in 2021. A total of 71 Maoists has been arrested in the State since March 6, 2000. No Maoist surrender was recorded in 2022 or in 2021, but at least 15 Maoists have surrendered in the State since March 6, 2000.
Despite the complete SF dominance on the ground in their fight against the rebels, civilians continue to remain under threat. Of the 13 civilians killed in the state, 11 have been killed after 2010.
Further, according to a May 25, 2022, report, the inviolate core-zone of the Kanha Tiger Reserve (KTR) situated in the state, is under the control of CPI-Maoist cadres. The presence and regular movement of armed Maoists in four of the six zones of KTR have been confirmed, as stated by S.K. Singh, the Reserve’s Field Director. Two tiger reserves, Indravati in Chhattisgarh and Palamu in Jharkhand, are already dominated by the Maoists. The plan of the CPI-Maoist leadership is to extend their influence to Amarkantak in the Anuppur District of Madhya Pradesh, through KTR.
Moreover, on November 30, 2022, a number of CPI-Maoist documents were recovered following an encounter with Naxalites (Left Wing Extremists) in the Supkhar Forest area of Balaghat District. The documents included calls to
Maoist pamphlets found on trees in the forest areas sought to mislead the youth and instigated them to join PLGA, citing unemployment.
Furthermore, according to a December 9, 2022, report, the Darrekasa Dalam (armed squad) of CPI-Maoist and Malajkhand Dalam, were operating in the Maoist-hit areas of Madhya Pradesh. The CPI-Maoist Vistaar Platoon-2 and Vistaar Platoon-3 at Kawardha-Balaghat were working to set up a corridor from Kawardha to Dindori, via the Balaghat and Mandla Districts.
In its classification list released on June 19, 2021, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) included the Balaghat District of Madhya Pradesh among the ‘25 Most Affected Districts’ across eight Indian states. In addition, Mandla was identified as one among the ‘Districts of Concern’ among eight districts from six states. Moreover, Balaghat, Dindori, and Mandla Districts are covered under the ‘Security Related Expenditure (SRE)’ scheme, which funds focused operations against the extremists in 70 LWE-affected districts in 10 states across the country.
An analysis of the underground and overground activities of the Maoists in 2022, according to the SATP database, categorized Balaghat District as ‘moderately affected’. In 2021, Balaghat and Mandla were in the moderately affected category. Madhya Pradesh has a total of 52 districts.
Meanwhile, according to a July 28, 2022, report, in order to bring the Naxalites into the ‘mainstream,’ the state government formulated a surrender and rehabilitation policy for Maoists which includes provisions for a one-year parole for jailed Maoists who provide information on their comrades. It also offers INR 500,000 as a one-time reward and INR 6,000 monthly for 36 months, as well as professional training to restart their lives. The policy also provides for unmarried Maoists, who will get INR 25,000 for weddings. They will also be given health insurance under the Ayushman Bharat Scheme, a house under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, and rations under the food security scheme.
According to a December 8, 2022, report, in order to contain Naxalite activities in residential areas in three Naxal-affected Police Stations – Samnapur, Bajag and Karanjia in Dindori District – which fall along the borders of neighbouring Chhattisgarh State, Special Squads will be formed. After executing attacks in Chhattisgarh, Naxalites flee into the Dindori District’s relatively inaccessible forest areas in search of safe hide-outs. The District Police Force has invited applications from eligible youth for this Special Squad.
On February 20, 2023, the State Government issued orders that Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan would be the Chairman of the Unified Command Committee, which would deal with Naxalites. According to the order, a core development group and divisional level sub-group committees have also been formed.
An area of concern, however, was the shortage of Police personnel in the state. According to Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data (as on January 1, 2021), Madhya Pradesh had 106.25 Police personnel per 100,000 population, significantly below the inadequate national average of 152.51. More worryingly, the Police/Area Ratio (number of policemen per 100 square kilometres) was just 28.97, as against the national average of 62.96. Both the State and national averages on the Police/Area ratio were well below the sanctioned strength, at 37.69 and 80.07, respectively. The sanctioned strength for the States’ Police was 116,184, while just 89,293 personnel were in position, creating a deficit of 23.14 per cent against a significantly deficient sanctioned strength. Moreover, the sanctioned strength of the apex Indian Police Service (IPS) Officers in the State was 305, but just 261 officers were in position, a deficit of 14.42 per cent. These critical security gaps in capacities and deployment in the State need urgent attention.
Despite the Maoists’ disappointment with the failure of their efforts to expand and strengthen their cadres in Madhya Pradesh, their surviving operational capacities cannot simply be disregarded. Rather, preemptive action is necessary to thwart the residual Maoist threat in the state.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia March 20-26, 2023
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
BANGLADESH
CHT
INDIA
Arunachal Pradesh
Chhattisgarh
Jammu and Kashmir
Jharkhand
India (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
IS-KP is stronger today in Afghanistan, says Senior US General Michael Erik Kurilla: The United State (US) Central Command (CENTCOM) commander, Michael Erik Kurilla, said on March 23 that Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) is stronger is today in Afghanistan. "Islamic State in Khorasan Province (IS-KP) is stronger today in Afghanistan," he said. Earlier, he also warned that the IS-KP would be able to strike Western interests in Europe and Asia within six months. The Khaama Press, March 25, 2023.
Afghanistan should not again serve as a "base for terrorism", says European Union Council: On March 20, the European Union (EU) Council said in a statement that Afghanistan should not again serve as a "base for terrorism". "Afghanistan should not once again serve as a base for terrorism and violent extremism to other countries, and the EU demands that the Taliban cease all direct and indirect ties with terrorism and reiterates the Taliban's responsibility in combatting terrorism", the EU council said. Tolo News, March 22, 2023.
US is abetting the IS-KP in Afghanistan, alleges Taliban Spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid: On March 24, Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban spokesman said that United States (US) is abetting the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) in Afghanistan. He tweeted, "The interest of the United States (US) officials in this matter and their grandiosity is aiding and abetting the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (IS-KP) insurgents, which should be stopped". Hasht e Subh, March 25, 2023.
"There is no IS-KP in Afghanistan", says Acting Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi: In an interview with Radio Television Afghanistan, Acting Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi said that there is no Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) in Afghanistan. He stated, "There is no Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) in Afghanistan, there are no militant groups in Afghanistan. If any incident occurs here, it originated from abroad. It is good news for us that the Afghans don't have problems among themselves." Tolo News, March 21, 2023.
56 foreign terrorists killed in J&K in 2022, states DGP Dilbag Singh: On March 23, Director General of Police (DGP) Dilbag Singh said that 56 foreign terrorists had been killed in anti-terror operations in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) in 2022. He added, "Drug abuse, especially the narco-terror is the second biggest challenge after militancy in J&K", adding that "strict action is being taken against those found involved in the drug abuse". Greater Kashmir, March 24, 2023.
UMHA extends AFSPA in parts of Arunachal and Nagaland: On March 24, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) extended Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, 1958 in Eight Districts and 21 Police Station areas falling under five other Districts of Nagaland after declaring them as "disturbed areas" for a period of six months with effect from April 1 to September 30, 2023. AFSPA has been extended to Dimapur, Niuland, Chumoukedima, Mon, Kiphire, Noklak, Phek, and Peren Districts of Nagaland for the next six months. Whereas in Arunachal Pradesh, Tirap, Changlang and Longding Districts and the areas falling within the jurisdiction of Namsai, Mahadevpur and Chowkham Police Stations in Namsai District of Arunachal Pradesh, bordering the state of Assam, are declared as 'disturbed area' under Section 3 of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, 1958 for a period of six months, with effect from 1 April, 2023, unless withdrawn earlier. Ani News, March 25, 2023.
Incidence of Maoist violence down by 76 per cent, says UHM Amit Shah: Union Home Minister (UHM) Amit Shah, on March 25, stated that the incidents of Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) violence have come down by 76 per cent, from the peak in 2010 while the loss of lives has also come down by 78 per cent. As many as 763 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel sacrificed their lives during the drive to end Left Wing Extremism (LWE) in Chhattisgarh and today our fight against LWE is at a decisive stage, Shah added. The Statesman, March 26, 2023.
UAPA tribunal confirms Centre's ban on PFI: A tribunal under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) on March 21, confirmed the central government's decision declaring the Popular Front of India (PFI) as an unlawful association and imposing a five-year ban on it. On September 27, 2022, the Centre had banned the PFI for five years for having links with global terrorist organisations such as the Islamic State (IS) and trying to spread communal hatred in the country. Latest Ly, March 22, 2023.
23 individuals designated as terrorists under UAPA so far since 2020, states MoS Nityanand Rai: 23 individuals have been designated as terrorists under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) so far since 2022, stated Union Minister of State (MoS) for Home Nityanand Rai in a reply in the Lok Sabha (lower house of the Parliament). Greater Kashmir, March 22, 2023.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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