With 369 insurgency related fatalities, and the year 2009 drawing to an end, Manipur remained the most violent State in India's Northeast. Assam, the other major theatre of conflict in the region, with 11 times the population and 3.5 times the land mass, stood at second place, with 344 fatalities through 2009. There are, however, tentative indications suggesting some gains for the counter-insurgency (CI) grid in Manipur, with Security Forces (SFs) inflicting rising costs on State's multiple insurgent groups, neutralizing significant numbers of their cadres and contracting their areas of dominance.
The steady increase of violence in Manipur since 2004, when insurgency-related fatalities took an abrupt upward turn, coinciding with the alleged rape and custodial death of a supposed female insurgent, Th. Manorama Devi, at the hands of Assam Rifles personnel, has witnessed its second reversal in 2009. A similar de-escalation had earlier been recorded in 2006. Manipur registered 499 fatalities in 996 insurgency-related incidents in 2008, according to combined data of the MHA and SATP. 2009 has seen 878 such incidents, claiming 369 lives, including 292 insurgents and 64 civilians, till November 15, according to the SATP database. While civilians and SFs together account for some 21 per cent, insurgents comprise nearly 79 per cent of the total fatalities in 2009. All the nine Districts of Manipur, including four in the Valley and five in the Hill areas, continue to be affected by varying degree of militant activities. Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh, on July 20, 2009, informed the State Legislative Assembly that more than 30 militant groups were operating in Manipur.
Manipur's insurgent groups have singled out the non-local Hindi and Bengali speaking population in their efforts to consolidate their support base within the indigenous population of the State. Of the 64 civilians killed in 2009, 28 belonged to this category - comprising migrant labourers and petty traders, who were killed in at least 23 attacks distributed across all the four Valley Districts. In the biggest attack of 2009, unidentified insurgents killed nine non-locals inside the Keibul Lamjao National Park in the Khordak Awang Leikai area in Bishnupur District on May 11. Exactly a month later, on June 11, four non-local labourers were killed when unidentified insurgents opened fire inside the Central Agriculture University campus at Iroisemba under Lamphel Police Station in Imphal West District. Police suspected that insurgents belonging either to the United National Liberation Front (UNLF) or the People's Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK) were behind these attacks.
Unlike the killings among the non-local labourer classes, which fail to register in the imagination and concerns of the scores of community groups and students' associations operating in Manipur, one killing that created great sensation was that of the July 23 encounter in which a suspected People's Liberation Army (PLA) militant was shot dead by the Imphal West District Police in the Khawairamband Bazaar area. A pregnant woman was also killed and five other persons sustained injuries in the cross-fire. The Apunba Lup, the apex body of several agitating groups in the State, has alleged the encounter to have been faked, and has spearheaded a State-wide agitation demanding the Chief Minister's resignation. While the Chief Minister announced the suspension of six personnel of the State Police's Commando Force and the setting up of a judicial inquiry, the All Manipur Students Union, Manipuri Students Federation and Kangleipak Students Association launched a class boycott campaign resulting in the closure of a majority of educational institutions, including Manipur University, particularly in the four Valley Districts on September 9. The Manipur Government's efforts to reopen the educational institutions are being countered by the agitating students' associations who have set ablaze school and college buildings in Thoubal and Imphal East Districts. The violent demonstration of sympathy by students groups for militant groups is no surprise in Manipur where, the Director General of Police, Y. Joykumar, had earlier declared at least one such student association - the Democratic Students' Alliance of Manipur (DESAM) - to be a front organisation of the Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL). Joykumar had asserted that "there is a linkage between DESAM and KYKL."
Representatives of local level self-Government institutions have also, at times, been found to have links with the insurgent groups in Manipur. In one such case, on August 19, 2009, a PLA militant was arrested by a combined force of the Imphal West District Police and Army from the residence of a woman member of the Thongju Gram Panchayat (village level local body), Ningthoujam Ongbi Mani Devi, at Thongju Pechu Lampak.
Meanwhile, the extortion drive by multiple insurgent groups remains intact across the State, with all most all the armed groups extracting levies and ransoms from residents and transients in their areas of operation. The continuing dominance of the insurgents in Manipur is also strongly reflected in the enveloping regime of extortion that targets Government offices, local self-Government and educational institutions, health centres, commercial establishments and the wider civilian population alike.
The militants' demonstration of power extends to the issue of numerous 'decrees' as well. In January 2009, PREPAK declared the imposition of a temporary 'ban' on all gas agents for allegedly duping consumers and for failing to heed the outfit's call for a 'dialogue' over the issue. In February 2009, the UNLF 'banned' the General Manager of the Imphal Urban Cooperative Bank, Y. Ningthemjao Singh, from entering the bank premises because of his alleged involvement in malpractices. Again, in April 2009, the Military Council faction of the Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP) declared a 'ban' on private hospitals for allegedly accumulating wealth at the cost of economically weak patients. Such moral policing by insurgent groups on occasion also gives vent to the resurfacing faultlines between the Valley and Hills in Manipur. In October 2009, the Military Council faction of the United Kuki Liberation Army demanded the abolition the Kut festival (autumn festival of different tribes of Kuki-Chin-Mizo groups in Manipur). The outfit stated that the venue of the festival should be in one of the chief towns of these ethnic groups, such as Churachandpur, Moreh, Kangpokpi or Motbung, but not in Imphal City.
The spillover of the Naga insurgency into Manipur Hills had significant impact on the State through 2009, as the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) sought to consolidate influence in the Naga populated areas of the State, in its quest for Nagalim (Greater Nagaland). An attempt by the NSCN-IM to establish a permanent camp at Siroy in Ukhrul District was foiled in February 2009. After a two-week standoff, the insurgents, who had already set up the camp, were provided safe passage by Assam Rifles personnel, and the camp was dismantled. However, another three unauthorised camps - established prior to the 1997 cease-fire between the NSCN-IM and the Union Government in Nagaland - at Bonning (Senapati District), Ooklong (Tamenglong District) and Phungchong (Chandel District), remain. The NSCN-IM reportedly receives patronage from Government officials working in the Naga populated hilly regions of Manipur. On February 13, 2009, for instance, the Sub-Divisional Officer of Khasom Khullen in Ukhrul District and his two colleagues were abducted by NSCN-IM militants, with the alleged connivance of the Deputy Commissioner of the District. The abducted officials were later killed.
Parliamentary elections were held in the Outer and Inner Manipur constituencies respectively on April 16 and 22, 2009, with 63 per cent of the voters casting their ballot in Outer Manipur and 60 per cent in Inner Manipur. The NSCN-IM allegedly provided support to the incumbent Parliamentarian, Mani Charenamei, belonging to the People's Democratic Alliance, who was seeking re-election from Outer Manipur, and who advocated the formation of Nagalim at the territorial expense of Manipur during his election campaign. There was, consequently, strong resentment in the Valley, partially articulated in the creation of the Thoubal District Development and Demand Council by voters of eight Assembly Constituencies, who boycotted Charenamei in the election. Charenamei eventually lost to Thangso Baite of the ruling Congress party. The NSCN-IM had also threatened 'capital punishment' against persons associated with an influential community group, the Tangkhul Nagalong (apex council of the Tangkhul community) in Chandel District, for campaigning in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party candidate, Loli Adanee, in Outer Manipur. In the Inner Manipur constituency, the Military Council faction of the KCP declared a 'ban' against the Congress party prior to election. The ban was subsequently 'lifted'. Though the Congress retained its seat in Inner Manipur as well, its offices were targeted and activists attacked. On April 12, for instance, two persons were wounded when the Mayang Imphal Block Office of the Congress party was blown up by militants.
The smooth conduct of a relatively peaceful Parliamentary election in Manipur coincided with the counter-insurgency Operation Summer Storm, jointly launched by the 57 Mountain Division of the Army, the para-military Assam Rifles and Manipur Police, involving about 500 SF personnel. The operation, demonstrating an increasing synergy of efforts in combating the militancy, targeted PREPAK in the Loktak Lake area and the adjoining Keibul Lamjao National Park of Bishnupur District, located south of Imphal, between April 11 and 21, 2009. The 10-day offensive resulted in the killing of 12 militants, the neutralisation of five camps, and the recovery of 10 weapons. Six months later, another CI Operation, Thunderbolt, was launched by troops in the northern side of the Loktak Lake at Yangoi Maril Pat under Wangoi Police Station of Imphal West District, in the first week of November 2009. While a suspected PREPAK cadre was shot dead, three hideouts belonging to different militant groups operating in the Valley were neutralised in the operation.
The Manipur Police has 627 Policemen per 100,000 population, a ratio that is dramatically higher than Assam (176), and the national average, at 125. Nevertheless, the State Government plans to recruit more Policemen, and the Manipur Cabinet has taken a decision to induct 1,600 Police Commandos, in addition to the existing 1,600 Commandos who are currently deployed in the Valley Districts of Imphal East, Imphal West, Bishnupur and Thoubal. The new batch of Police Commandos is to be deployed in the Hill Districts, in order to cover the entire State with this trained 'strike force'. A Commando post and an India Reserve Battalion post have been opened at Ukhrul and Senapati, respectively, two of the worst affected Districts in the State. The Cabinet has also agreed to add one Company each to the existing six battalions of the Manipur Rifles. Further, the Government has reportedly decided to recruit 2,400 Police Constables for deployment in the Armed Reserve in all Districts, excluding Imphal West. It has also decided to recruit Village Defence Forces to assist the Police in the four Valley Districts. The Police have, at best, played a marginal role in countering the insurgency in the State.
Despite the overwhelming and augmenting availability of Police in the State and a reduction in violence during 2009, it remains the case that the State lacks the political will to confront the insurgents on a sustained basis, within the framework of a coherent strategy. While there have been some positive developments, there is little to suggest any fundamental transformation in the orientation of the State's political leadership and Government, or in the dynamics of the multiple conflicts in the State.