Despite an election alliance between the opposition Congress party and the Indigenous Nationalist Party of Tripura (INPT) vigorously backed by the proscribed insurgent National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT), the Communist Party of India – Marxist (CPI-M) led by Chief Minister Manik Sarkar was returned to power with an absolute majority in the Assembly Elections of February 26, 2003. Manik Sarkar took charge of his second term as Chief Minister with his party controlling 41 seats in the 60-member Tripura Assembly. The Congress – INPT combine won the remaining 19 seats. If anything, the electoral outcome is expected to increase the visible desperation of the insurgent group, and to result in an escalation of violence in the State.
The February elections had been preceded by a number of incidents of violence, allegedly intended to coerce voters to support the INPT and its electoral ally, the Congress. The INPT is headed by former guerilla leader Bijoy Kumar Hrangkhawl of the erstwhile Tripura National Volunteers (TNV). In the worst of such incidents after the Elections were announced on January 10, 2003, NLFT terrorists affiliated to the Biswamohan Debbarma faction massacred 11 persons at an election rally on January 26, 2003. A total of 56 persons were killed in the State between January 1 and March 11, 2003, including 44 civilians, six insurgents and six security force (SF) personnel.
The year 2002 had seen a significant decline in insurgent violence, with terrorism related fatalities down at 175 – including 94 civilians, 43 SF personnel and 38 militant cadres – as against 312 persons killed in 2001. The 2001 fatalities included 239 civilians, 31 SF personnel and 42 terrorists. Despite the 43 per cent decline in fatalities, the levels of violence in the State remain extraordinarily high, given the size of the State and its population.
Note: Figures are compiled from official as well as media sources. Figures for 2002 are provisional.
Tripura is the smallest of the Northeastern States, and has just four districts––North Tripura, South Tripura, West Tripura and Dhalai. Terrorism-related casualties occurred in all four districts in year 2002, indicating the enormous spread of insurgent activity in the State. The West district, in which the State capital, Agartala, is located, was the worst affected, accounting for nearly 65 per cent of the total fatalities and 50 per cent of the total incidents inflicted by the NLFT and its rival All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF). The two active extremist groups in the State, the NLFT and the ATTF, have long competed with each other to inflict civilian casualties. Significantly, 28 of the 38 SF personnel killed by these groups lost their lives in operations in the West district.
* These numbers represent fatalities where positive identification of the perpetrating group has been made. Note: SF: Security Force Personnel; CIV: Civilians; TER: Terrorists; TOT: Total; Source: Figures are compiled from news reports and are provisional.
The NLFT remains by far the most lethal group in the State, both in terms of its area of operation as well as the number of persons it killed. Of the total 175 casualties, the NLFT was involved in 136. NLFT affiliated terrorists killed 37 SF personnel, 73 civilians and lost just 26 cadres, with activities extending across all the four districts of the State. The group was also seen to be specifically executing planned operations against the SFs. The major attacks executed against SFs by this group in year 2002 included:
The major attacks by the NLFT against civilians included:
The ATTF was responsible for 11 incidents in the year 2002, and killed 15 civilians. Its activities were primarily concentrated in the West and North Tripura districts. Major attacks by the ATTF included:
Besides the NLFT and the ATTF, a fringe group of the former, the Borok National Council of Tripura (BNCT), was intermittently active and the identity of the actors remained unknown in some of the incidents. The BNCT and other unidentified terrorists, in combination, were connected with 23 fatalities during the year.
ATTF
NLFT
Others*
Total
* This includes those, which could not be classified in the above Table Source: Figures are compiled from news reports and are provisional.
Neither of the two major groups, the NLFT and the ATTF, has shown any inclination to enter into dialogue with the government and, to the extent that the possibilities of a process of negotiation have been hinted at, prohibitive pre-conditions have undermined these. In July 2002, the Biswamohan Debbarma faction (NLFT-B) is reported to have said that it could enter into negotiations with the government, if such negotiations had the 'sovereignty and independence of Twipra kingdom' on the agenda, a position that has not been acceptable to the government. The group also clearly stated its unwillingness to negotiate within the framework of the Indian Constitution stating that "The Government of India has always insisted that it (the talks) has to be within the framework of Indian Constitution and the condition of sovereignty unnegotiable (sic). Acceptance of any offer for peace talks within the framework of Indian Constitution would mean not only the acceptance of the presence of two million Hindu Bengali illegal immigrants but also justify their stay in Twipra."
The Government, on its part, has called for negotiations and has also continued efforts for the rehabilitation of those terrorists who have surrendered arms. On December 16, 2002, the Government announced, at Agartala, an economic package under which 74 surrendered terrorists of the NLFT and ATTF were provided with means of self-employment. Finance was also made available to them for the construction of houses under the Indira Awas Yojna (a government scheme to provide cheap dwelling places to the poor).
The Government also intensified efforts to choke external linkages of the terrorist groups. On December 5, 2002 Bangladesh was asked for an urgent flag meeting of border guards to hand over two hardcore NLFT terrorists, reportedly captured by the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) on December 1. As of March 2003, the BDR was yet to responded to the request. Earlier, in a related development, on November 4, 2002, India had submitted a list of 99 training camps in Bangladesh run by terrorist groups operating in Inida’s Northeast, and had sought action against these. Of these, the NLFT is believed to be running as many as 25 camps, and the ATTF, 20. As of March 2003, there had been no evidence of official Bangladeshi action in response to this request.