The October 1 serial explosions in the capital, Agartala, were the high point of militancy in Tripura in 2008. Four explosions, two of them described by the State Police as "powerful", went off within a span of 45 minutes, between, 7.30 PM and 8.15 PM, in the Radha Nagar, Gol Bazaar, GB Bazaar and Krishna Nagar localities, injuring 74 persons. Although no one was killed, the targeting of the capital, Agartala, created panic. A live crude bomb was also recovered and defused on the main motor stand in Agartala. Another live bomb was diffused near a temple at Radhanagar in North Agartala. While no organisation claimed responsibility for the explosions, subsequent investigations exposed the role of the All Tripura Tigers Force (ATTF) and the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI) in Bangladesh. The Assam based United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) had trained the militants who had carried out the explosions. On October 12, Tripura Police personnel neutralised an ATTF hideout where the bombs used in the explosions were prepared.
Nevertheless, trends in continuously declining violence, established in 2003 in Tripura, saw a further consolidation in 2008. Starting 2003, violence in this tiny State in India's Northeast, surrounded by Bangladesh from three sides, has steadily declined, suggesting that militancy in Tripura could soon be a thing of the past.
Total fatalities in 2008 declined by over 28 per cent from the relatively low figure of 39 in 2007, though militancy-related incidents increased by 23 per cent. Civilian fatalities were down 50 per cent and Security Force (SF) fatalities, 33 per cent. 17 militant cadres were killed in 2008, compared to 19 cadres in 2007.
Despite the steady erosion of militancy, incidents were reported from all of Tripura's four Districts in 2008. While the West District, in which capital Agartala is located, was the worst affected, with 60 militancy-related incidents, Dhalai, North and South Districts accounted for 26, 21 and 9 incidents, respectively.
On November 25, 2008, Chief Minister Manik Sarkar informed the State Assembly that the combined strength of the two principal militant formations operating in the State, the National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) and the ATTF was less than 300. While the NLFT's cadre strength was estimated at between 180 and 200, the ATTF was believed to have fallen to an all-time low, with no more than 90 to 100 cadres. It is significant to note that extremely effective counter-insurgency operations continue to keep a bulk of the remaining cadres and their top leadership in the safety of Bangladesh. Hit and run type of attacks from across the international border, and surreptitious movements by cadres in search of avenues of extortion, remain the dominant mode extremist activities in Tripura.
According to Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) data, 295 militants were either arrested or surrendered in the first eight months of 2008. On May 8, 35 NLFT cadres surrendered at Kanchanpur in the North Tripura District, while another 12 had surrendered at the same place on March 30.
Only 25 incidents involving the ATTF were reported in 2008. At least 32 ATTF cadres were neutralised in 2008. A lone ATTF cadre was killed during an encounter at Gandabasti in the West District on July 25, while 20 cadres surrendered on separate occasions and 11 cadres were arrested. On September 14, Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) personnel handed over 18 ATTF militants to Border Security Force (BSF) authorities at Khowai Immigration Centre in West District. All the militants were reportedly detained by the BDR from their Satcherri hideout in Bangladesh in October 2004, and had served prison terms in that country.
The Borok National Council of Tripura (BNCT), a shadowy front organization of the NLFT, since its emergence in 1997, has abducted non-tribal youth and hand them over to the NLFT. The group was also involved in lifting of cattle belonging to non-tribals residing in interior forested areas. While the group had been marginalized within the first few years of its operation, the NLFT has helped its revival since 2006, in an attempt to divert the focus of counter-insurgency operations. The BNCT mostly manages the NLFT's abduction and extortion activities, principally in the North and Dhalai Districts. BNCT has also abducted tribal youth for forcible recruitment into the NLFT. At least 19 cases of abduction were registered against BNCT cadres in 2008. Like its parent outfit, the BNCT also suffered setbacks in 2008. While two BNCT cadres were killed in an encounter with the SFs at Bankaraipara under Birganj Police Station in the South District, 45 BNCT cadres surrendered through the year. The SFs arrested another 10 BNCT cadres.
SF domination was further in evidence in the declining number of fatalities among the Forces in the State. Only two encounters involving deaths of SF personnel were reported in 2008. On January 19, unidentified militants killed a Special Police Officer (SPO), Bhajan Bhowmik at the Khedarnal village under Nutanbazar Police Station in the Dhalai District; and on November 29 three BSF personnel were killed in an ambush by the NLFT militants at Wadukcherra under Manikpur Police Station in the Dhalai District.
The improved security situation in Tripura was visible in the largely peaceful elections to the State Legislative Assembly on February 23, 2008. In earlier elections, militants had unleashed a reign of terror, significantly affecting voter participation. In 2008, however, their obstructive activities were confined to snatching Voter Identity Cards on two occasions and carrying out handful attacks on political party activists. Only one incident of abduction of four supporters of the ruling Communist Party of India - Marxist (CPI-M), including a polling agent, was reported from Hariyamani para under Chawmanu Police station in the Dhalai District on February 21. Earlier, on February 8, NLFT cadres had abducted two CPI-M supporters from their village at Shanpara in West District. All the abducted persons were subsequently released. On February 11, unidentified militants assaulted and injured Ajit Debbarma, a divisional member of the CPI-M at Khowai in the West District. Further on February 20, more than 20 CPI-M activists were injured when a group of NLFT militants stormed a local Party committee office in the Ramchandraghat constituency of West District, and assaulted Party members. However, not a single untoward incident took place on polling day on February 23, as a huge 91 per cent of voters turned out for the elections. The incumbent CPI-M won 46 of Legislative Assembly's 60 seats.
The capacities for operation and recruitment among militant groups in the State have been crippled by the strategic deployment of SF personnel in the high hills, plugging militant routes inside the State. There has also been continuous improvement in SF capacities. Crucially, the retreat of militancy has ensured the penetration of State structures into the most remote areas of Tripura, which were once preying zones for the militants.
Just 80 kilometres of the 856 kilometre long international border with Bangladesh remain unfenced in the Gandacherra sub-division of Dhalai District, and this is the principal point of ingress for the militants from Bangladesh. Following the Agartala serial blasts, in which the perpetrators are known to have used the unfenced border to bring in men and explosives into Tripura, there has been a renewed emphasis on completing the tasks of fencing, enhancing force presence and patrolling, introducing modern electronic sensors and flood lighting the entire border. The entire process is scheduled to be completed by 2011-12.
The electoral victory of the Awami League (AL) in the December 29 Parliamentary elections in Bangladesh and the assurance given by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wazed that the territory of that country would not be allowed to be used to launch terrorist strikes within India gave further grounds for greater hope in Tripura. There is qualified optimism, now, that year 2009 may witness a Bangladeshi rethink on its past policies of support to outfits such as the NLFT and ATTF, even as SFs within Tripura gear up to hammer the final nail on the coffin of militancy in the State.