Nepal Assessment 2000

The Communist Party of Nepal --- Maoist (CPN-M) which had declared a "people's war", continued to spread terror in some parts of Nepal during 1999. Reports indicate that escalating violence had claimed over 600 lives in the past three years. The victims included Maoist extremists, political activists, security personnel and innocent people. On March 11, fourteen persons were killed in two separate incidents in Rukum and Rolpa -- both in western Himalayas.

The inital target of the Maoist insurgents were Nepali Congress activists with an estimated 100 Nepali Congress activists being killed since 1996. The Nepal Communist Party (United Marxist-Leninist) too was a target and a UML leader, Yadu Gautam was assasinated on March 5. The UML Chairman and former Prime Minister Manmohan Adikari claimed that so far 12 of his party activists had been killed by the Maoist extremists.

On April 19, last year the Maoists struck in Kathmandu, exploding bombs at the office of the Election Commission and of Gorkhapatra, the largest circulated Nepali newspaper. Their guerrilla campaign was intensified to disrupt the May 3 parliamentary elections. On the eve of the election, two police officers and six Maoists were killed in separate clashes in Rolpa, Gorkha and Jumla.

Armed Maoist activists were responsible for killings of civilians ---- mostly landowners, declared by them to be class enemies. Moreover, they attacked a number of police posts, local administrative offices and local offices of international non-governmental organisations during the year. But so far, there had been no casualties or serious damage.

The remote, backward mountainous regions of Nepal, particularly Dang, the country's largest valley, is the stronghold of the Maoists, who have mobilised the support of unemployed and poor youth. The insurgents have been expanding their sphere of influence by building alliances with minority tribal groups such as the Magars. They also have considerable following among member of lower Hindu castes, lawyers, teachers and juveniles.

In order to procure sophisticated weapons, Maoist insurgents have been active in fundraising particularly by robbing small-town branches of banks. Besides this, they have also tried to procure weapons by developing links with Indian leftist rebel groups such as the Maoist Communist Centre (MCC) and the People's War Group (PWG).

In the second half of 1999, the Nepalese government stepped up counter-insurgency operations in 20 districts which were identified as most affected by violent activities. In mid-October, about 12 Maoist insurgents were killed in encounters with the security forces. The government also declared an amnesty under which about 2000 sympathisers and lower level cadres were surrendered to the authorities. However, the government has not achieved any major breakthrough in dealing with the insurgency situation which poses a serious threat to internal security and political stability of Nepal.

In fact insurgency and Maoist activities cast a shadow on the recent years, there are reports of an increasing presence of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in Nepal. The ISI has been using Nepal as a conduit, on account of the 1,800 km porous Indo-Nepal border, to facilitates its strategy of fomenting trouble in various parts of India. Nepal-based ISI agents have been sending men, weapons, counterfeit Indian currency and narcotics into Indian territory. Intelligence reports suggest that the ISI has developed contacts with members of the Nepalese bureaucracy and has some influence among businessmen in Nepal. Nepal is also used as a base for mafia groups operating in India such as the Dawood Ibrahim gang. They utilise the Nepal border to further their nefarious activities in India.

Reports indicate that the Pakistani embassy in Kathmandu is also invoved as a centre of coordination for various militant groups of India and is involved in the smuggling of explosives. Nearly 100 kg of RDX was seized from Nepal in 1999. These reports also suggest that officials of the ISI and the embassy have played host to different terrorist outfits operating in Jammu & Kashmir and the North-eastern states of India. 22 Kashmiri militants were arrested from Kathmandu during July-December 1999. Among the ISI-backed Kashmiri militant groups, the Laskar-e-Toiba and Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), have developed connections in Nepal. The ISI is also reported to be mobilising muslim youth in the Terai region near the Indo-Nepal border and training them for subversive activities in a number of mosques and madrassas established along the border area.

The ISI is also reported to have intensified subversive operations from Nepal against India in the border areas of north-eastern Bihar and north Bengal after the Kargil episode. The recent highjacking of IC-814 also points to this trend. The ISI has also used the Nepali route for distributing fake Indian currency. In June, the Nepalese policy seized fake Indian currency totaling Rs. 6.2 million from an Indian national at Tribhuvan International airport. Again on January 3, 2000, the Nepalese police arrested Asam Saboor, a clerk in the Pakistan embassy in Nepal, suspected to be an ISI official, with fake Indian currency totaling Rs. 50,000.

There is also the possibility that the ISI could, in future, forge links with the Maoist insurgents operating in Nepal to foment subversive activities in both the countries. Efforts were made by India and Nepal to flush out ISI operatives and agents from the Himalayan country but without much breakthrough. The main problem in tackling the ISI has been the long and porous Indo-Nepal border that makes any effective surveillance impossible.

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