Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assessment - 2014

At least 13 persons were killed and another 19 were injured when three back-to-back grenade explosions occurred inside the Shama Cinema in the Bacha Khan Chowk area of Peshawar, the provincial capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), on February 11, 2013. Around 80 people were in the cinema hall at the time of the explosions. The cinema owner had received threatening letters from terrorists about a possible attack, the Police said.

In a similar incident on February 2, 2013, unidentified assailants hurled two grenades at Picture House Cinema in the Kabuli Bazaar area of Peshawar, killing at least five persons and injuring 30. The Picture House Cinema had been attacked earlier as well, on July 13, 2012, when unidentified assailants had hurled a grenade at the Cinema Hall, injuring at least eight persons. Though no one has taken responsibility for these attacks, they are usually blamed on Islamist extremists who claim that music and films are "un-Islamic".

Following the recent attacks, the KP Home Department has directed cinema hall owners to install CCTV cameras and metal and explosive detectors, and to deploy uniformed and plain-clothed Security Force (SF) personnel. There would also be a complete ban on parking vehicles within the premises of the cinema houses.

Meanwhile, reversing the declining trend in terrorism-related fatalities in KP since 2010, year 2013 recorded a rise in killings. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), KP saw at least 936 fatalities, including 603 civilians, 172 SF personnel and 161 militants, in 210 incidents of killing in 2013, as compared 656 fatalities, including 363 civilians, 195 militants and 98 SF personnel, in 170 such incidents, in 2012. [Since media access is heavily restricted in the most disturbed areas of Pakistan, and there is only fitful release of information by Government agencies, the actual figures could be much higher.] The first 47 days of 2014 have already witnessed 156 killings, including 103 civilians, 42 SF personnel and 12 militants, in 48 incidents of killing. In the worst attack of the current year, 26 soldiers were killed and another 24 were injured in a targeted bomb blast on a military convoy in the Bannu Town (Bannu District) on January 19. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) 'spokesman' Shahidullah Shahid claiming responsibility, said, "It was part of our fight against a secular system. We will carry out more such attacks in future."

While fatalities among terrorists in 2013 declined by 17.43 per cent, as compared to the preceding year, the number of fatalities among SFs increased by 75.51 per cent, over the same period. Indeed, this is the first time since 2005 that a greater number of SF personnel has been killed as compared to terrorists during the course of a year. The number of terrorists killed in 2013 was the lowest since 2006, when just 27 were killed. Evidently, there is an operational paralysis in the SFs, working under Governments that are unwilling to antagonise the Islamist extremists.

Inevitably, SF inaction has contributed to rising fatalities among civilians, who face the brunt of terrorist violence in KP, as in the rest of the country. Civilian fatalities, which had been declining since the peak of 2009, when 1,229 civilians were killed, increased by a disturbing 66.11 per cent between 2012 and 2013, from 363 deaths to 603 fatalities, respectively.

A significant proportion of the civilians were targeted in sectarian violence. There were 10 sectarian attacks, resulting in 58 deaths and 46 injuries, in 2012. 2013 recorded nine such incidents accounting for 51 deaths and 86 injuries.

The worsening security scenario also saw several high profile political killings through 2013. The then KP Law Minister, Israrullah Gandapur, was killed with 10 others in a suicide attack at a festive gathering at his residence in the Kolachi area of Dera Ismail Khan District, on October 16, 2013. Imran Mohmand, an independent Member of the Provincial Assembly from Shergarh town of Mardan District, was killed along with 35 others, when a suicide bomber blew himself up at a funeral prayer in the Shah Zaman Qala village area of Shergarh town, on June 18, 2013.

Other parameters of violence also rose significantly. The province accounted for 65 major incidents of violence (each involving three or more fatalities) resulting in 694 deaths in 2013, as against 57 such incidents accounting for 434 fatalities in 2012. In the worst attack during the year, at least 85 persons were killed and another 145 were injured in an explosion at the All Saints Church near Qissa Khawani bazaar in Peshawar on September 22, 2013.

Further, while the number of suicide attacks remained the same, at 21, in 2012 and 2013, the resulting fatalities increased considerably, from 140 to 350. The deadliest suicide attack of 2013 was the All Saints Church atrocity of September 22.

Though there was a marginal decrease in the number of explosions, from 222 in 2012 to 189 in 2013, the resultant fatalities increased significantly, from 268 to 598. Moreover, the Bomb Disposal Unit (BDU) managed to foil at least 22 explosions by recovering and diffusing explosive devices. Despite meagre resources and staff, KP's BDU saved thousands of innocent lives by recovering and defusing over 5,000 bombs in the last four and a half years in KP and FATA, according to a statement by BDU Assistant Inspector General Shafqat Malik, on April 12, 2013.

Polio teams remained under attack in the Province, especially in Peshawar District, though heavy Police security was provided to the volunteers. 20 such attacks resulting in 19 deaths (11 SF personnel and eight polio workers) were reported during 2013, as compared to four such attacks accounting for seven deaths (all polio worker) in 2012. On October 5, 2013, the KP Government decided to engage the Army to protect polio workers in five union councils of Peshawar. The terrorists responded by killing seven persons, including four Policemen, and injuring another eight in an attack targeting a function called to distribute anti-polio material among the anti polio teams in the Suleman Khel area of the Union Council of Bazidkhel in the Badhaber area of Peshawar, on October 7, 2013.

All 25 Districts of KP were variously affected by terrorism, but Peshawar, was the worst, recording at least 174 terrorist incidents, resulting in 382 fatalities through 2013, as compared to at least 131 incidents accounting for 231 killings in 2012. Peshawar recorded eight suicide attacks resulting in 145 deaths and 319 injuries, in 2013; as against 10 such incidents with 86 fatalities and 169 injuries in 2012. 73 incidents of explosion were reported in Peshawar in 2013, as compared to 75 in 2012. Fatalities in such explosions stood at 300 in 2013 as against 145 in the preceding year.

Confirming the escalation of terror across the Province, then KP Information Minister Mian Iftikhar Hussain admitted on January 5, 2013,

The strength of militants has increased so alarmingly that now they can reach anywhere they want, to carry out their activities. The time has come to take the final decision on whether to hold dialogue with militants or to begin a meaningful operation against them.

Ominous sign, the TTP, the most lethal terrorist formation within Pakistan, is now led by Maulana Fazlullah who belongs to the Swat District of KP, the region which, prior to the 2007-2009 operations, was believed to be the ‘heartland’ of domestic terrorism. His ‘deputy’ Khalid Haqqani is from Swabi District in KP. This is for the first time that the outfit is headed by leaders from KP; earlier TTP leaders – Baitullah and Hakimullah – belonged to the adjoining Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) region.

In a daring attack on July 29, 2013, TTP had terrorists stormed the Central Prison at Dera Ismail Khan, KP, and freed some 253 prisoners, including 45 top terrorists. 24 persons, including 12 Policemen, five terrorists, four prisoners, and three civilians, were killed in the attack and the counter attack by SFs. Claiming responsibility for the attack, TTP’s ‘central spokesman’ Shahidullah Shahid declared, “Some 150 Taliban, including 60 suicide bombers, attacked the Central Prison and managed to free about 300 prisoners. They were looking in particular for two ‘commanders’ – Sufi Mohammad and Shaikh Abdul Hakim. The TTP has achieved its targets and their operation was successful.” An unnamed senior Police official in Dera Ismail Khan disclosed, on August 13, 2013, that 65 prisoners had either returned or had been re-arrested and moved back to the prison. The fate of remaining prisoners is not known.

Indeed, the appointment of Fazlullah and the freeing of Sufi Mohammad and Shaikh Abdul Hakim are two events that are bound to impact adversely on the security situation in the Province.

On March 18, 2013, the new KP Government announced a few tentative measures to confront the rising menace of Islamist terrorism, including the setting up of a Strategy and Analysis Wing (SAW) to coordinate efforts at combating crime and terrorism, analysing data and making use of digital and internet data to these ends. Headed by the Home and Tribal Affairs Secretary, Azam Khan, the SAW hierarchy includes a media analyst, a prosecution analyst, crime analyst, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) specialist, a database supervisor and 'data friskers'. On September 11, 2013, the KP Assembly had passed a Bill to regulate explosives in the Province. According to the new law, those found guilty of illegally manufacturing explosives would be fined up to PKR 15 million (USD 143,000) while those transporting illegal explosive would face an PKR 1.25 million (USD 12,000) penalty. The law also makes the illegal possession of explosives punishable with imprisonment for a term which may extend to fourteen years.

These initiatives overwhelmingly represent a reluctant symbolism, rather than any clear determination to confront the Islamist extremists. Indeed, the Imran Khan led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in alliance with Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) - which formed the Government in the Province under the Chief Ministership of Pervez Khattak on May 31, 2013, replacing the ANP led Government of Chief Minister Ameer Haider Khan Hoti - came to power on a platform that is deeply sympathetic to the Islamist extremist ideology. The stated position of the new Government on the TTP and other Islamist terrorist formations, according to Chief Minister Khattak's declaration of January 26, 2014, is that military operations against the terrorist would be opposed. This, indeed, was only a further reiteration of the position that Imran Khan and other party leaders, both of the PTI and the JI, had defined well before the elections that brought them to power. Given a comparable ambivalence in Islamabad, under the present leadership of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, and the general reluctance of the Army to initiate any resolute campaign to challenge the increasing sway of the terrorists, it is unlikely that any of fitful measures could impact significantly on the rising graph of terrorist violence in KP. 

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