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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 12, No. 8, August 26, 2013

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

PAKISTAN
USA
Click for PrintPrint

Diminishing Drones
Anurag Tripathi
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

As the drawdown deadline inches closer, the United States (US) appears to have begun to appease its ‘ally’ in the war against terror, to ensure support for a safer passage to its troop as they return home. Crucially, US drone operations in Pakistan have been considerably scaled down. This is a significant change from what was witnessed during the earlier years of Barack Obama's presidency.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the US has carried out at least 277 drone attacks, resulting in over 2,548 fatalities since 2005 (all data till August 25, 2013). While drone strikes and resultant fatalities increased every year till the peak of 2010, they started to fall thereafter. Significantly, in comparison to 273 fatalities in 34 drone attacks in 2012, till August 25, the current year has witnessed only 15 such attacks and 112 fatalities over the same period.

Drone attacks in Pakistan: 2005-2013
Year
Incidents
Killed
Injured

2005

1
1
0

2006

0
0
0

2007

1
20
15

2008

19
156
17

2009

46
536
75

2010

90
831
85+

2011

59
548
52

2012

46
344
37

2013

15
112
20

Total*

277
2548
301+
Source: SATP, *Data till August 25, 2013.

According to the New America Foundation (NAF), a total of 2788 people have been killed in US drone attacks since 2005. According to the NAF data, five people were killed in 2005, 94 in 2006, 63 in 2007, 298 in 2008, 549 in 2009, 849 in 2010, 517 in 2011, 306 in 2012 and 107 in 2013 (till August 25).

The last major drone attack (involving three or more killings) took place on July 28, 2013, when eight Taliban terrorists were killed in a US drone attack at a house in the Shawal valley of North Waziristan Agency (NWA) in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

Some other important drone attacks in 2013 include:

July 2: At least 17 suspected terrorists of al Qaeda and Haqqani Network were killed and two others were injured in a drone attack at a house in the Sirai Darpakhel area of Miranshah in NWA.

June 7: A US drone strike killed seven unidentified terrorists in the Shokhel village of NWA.

May 29: A US drone strike killed the deputy 'chief' of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Waliur Rehman, the ‘number two’ in TTP, along with at least five other terrorists in the Chashma village of NWA.  

April 17: At least nine Taliban terrorists, including five foreigners, were killed in a US drone attack in the Bobar Samal area of South Waziristan Agency (SWA) in FATA.

February 8: Seven al Qaeda and Taliban terrorists were killed and another six were injured when US drones fired six missiles and pounded two separate mud-built houses in the Babar area of Ladha subdivision in SWA.  

January 10: At least six unidentified terrorists were killed in a US drone attack at Heso Khel village in NWA.

January 8, 2013: At least eight unidentified terrorists were killed and another four were injured when US drones attacked militant hideouts in the villages of Haider Khel and Hisokhel in NWA.

January 6, 2013: At least 17 suspected Taliban terrorists were killed and another eight sustained injuries in US drone attacks in the Babar area of Ladha subdivision in SWA.

January 3, 2013: TTP leader Maulvi Nazir was among 10 terrorists killed in a US-operated drone strike in the Sarkundi area of Birmal tehsil in SWA.

The US drone attacks had been initiated with the principal objective of flushing out al Qaeda and Afghan Taliban leaders and operatives who had taken shelter in the tribal areas of Pakistan. Later when the TTP, formed in 2007, stated providing critical support to al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban, the drones started targeting their leaders and operatives as well. The effectiveness of the drones has been beyond question, particularly in view of the fact that Pakistani Security Forces (SFs) had consistently failed to eliminate any significant top leader of terrorist groups who have taken shelter in Pakistan, and who was fighting the US-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan.

According to a July 29, 2013, report in The Long War Journal, 79 top terrorists, including Baitullah Mehsud (former TTP ‘commander’), Osama al Kini alias Fahid Mohammed Ally Msalam (al Qaeda's operations chief for Pakistan), Mustafa Abu Yazid alias Sheikh Saeed al Masri (an al Qaeda leader in Afghanistan and top financial controller), Mohammed Haqqani (a mid-level Haqqani Network ‘military commander’ and brother of the outfit’s leader Sirajuddin Haqqani), Abdul Basit Usman (the US had a USD one million bounty on his head), and Abu Jihad al Masri (the leader of the Egyptian Islamic Group and the chief of al Qaeda's intelligence branch), Abu Usman Adil (the leader of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan), and Waliur Rehman (the deputy ‘chief’ of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan and the group's leader in South Waziristan), had been killed in drones strikes in FATA since 2004.

Despite these dramatic successes, there is nothing to suggest that the situation has been brought under control on ground, and that the campaign needs to be scaled down. According to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) report published on July 31, 2013, Afghanistan has recorded 1,319 civilian casualties in first six months of 2013, a 23 per cent rise than the number in 2012 over the same period (1,072 civilian casualties were recorded in 2012). Among these, 443 civilians were killed and 917 were injured by Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), a 34 per cent increase over the same period in 2012. Also noted was the increase in targeted killings, attacks against civilian Government workers and high levels of threats and intimidation, which the report attributed to ‘Anti-Government Elements’.

Despite these adverse trends, the US has slowed down drone operations under Pakistani pressure, as the Obama administration fears that Pakistani covert support to the Afghan Taliban and other Pak-backed terrorist formations operating in Afghanistan could significantly jeopardize the safety of its troops in the final phases of their ‘withdrawal’. 

The drone strikes have come under severe criticism in Pakistan, with alleged ‘collateral damage’ becoming a critical issue. The May 11, 2013, General Elections further raised the temperature on US drone attacks, with two major political parties – the Nawaz Sharif-led Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) – citing these as a ‘major complication’ in US-Pakistan relations. An official statement, issued after the first meeting of the Nawaz Sharif Cabinet on June 10, 2013, quoted him as saying, "The policy of protesting against drone strikes for public consumption, while working behind the scenes to make them happen, is not on.” The Sharif Government has, since, vigorously opposed the US drone campaign in Pakistan.

Earlier, on May 9, 2013, the Peshawar High Court had ordered that drones entering Pakistani airspace be shot down. Observing that drone attacks constitute a violation of international law and basic human rights, and also violate the territorial sovereignty of Pakistan, the Court observed that drone attacks should be declared a war crime, and issued wide-ranging directives to the Federal Government and Security Forces to ensure the halt of such attacks. These directives included the raising of the issue at the United Nation Security Council (UNSC) and the General Assembly. A bench comprising Chief Justice Dost Mohammad Khan and Justice Musarrat Hilali gave the ruling on the four identical writ petitions against the US drone attacks. The four petitions were filed by several leaders of the Defence of Pakistan Council (DPC), Foundation for Fundamental Rights (FFR), tribal elder Malik Noor Khan and lawyer FM Sabir.

Mounting pressure and the uncertainty of its enterprise and objectives in Afghanistan have forced the US to change its stance time and again in recent past. Significantly, White House Press Secretary Jay Carney in a statement released on February 6, 2013, claimed, "These strikes are legal, they are ethical and they are wise." However, US Secretary of State John Kerry on August 2, 2013, declared that the US was ‘making progress’ in the war on terror, and hoped to end the use of drone strikes "very soon", adding, "I believe that we're on a good track. I think the program will end as we have eliminated most of the threat and continue to eliminate it." Kerry, however, did not provide any specifics on the timeline.

The US worry over safe and secure withdrawal from Afghanistan has forced it to bend before Pakistani pressure and the steep decline in drone attacks is the natural fallout. Nevertheless, the terrorist leadership that has taken shelter in Pakistan’s tribal areas, with overwhelming evidence suggesting state complicity, continues to threaten US objectives in Afghanistan, and in the wider Asian region. Unable to sustain its war against the enduring threat of Islamist extremist terrorism sourced from Pakistan, the US is making desperate overtures to ‘buy peace’ from an intractable enemy, potentially jeopardizing the security of the entire region, and, likely, wider theatres across the world.

NEPAL
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Election Dilemmas
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

With less than three months left for the second Constituent Assembly (CA) Elections scheduled to be held on November 19, 2013, dilemmas about the elections still persist, with opposing parties further hardening their respective stands. The three major parties – the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M), the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) – are, moreover, themselves far from clear about their approach. 

The alliance of 33-political parties led by the Mohan Baidya faction of the Communist Party Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Baidya), which has been agitating against the polls from the moment of the 11 point agreement between the UCPN-M, NC, CPN-UML and the United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF), as well as the consequent formation of the Interim Election Government in March 2013, has rejected the elections under the current dispensation. On June 13, 2013, the Interim Election Government had announced November 19, 2013, as the revised date for holding the second CA elections. On the same day, in a press conference in Kathmandu, leaders from CPN-Maoist-Baidya, the Ashok Rai-led Sanghiya Samajwadi Party (SSP), and the Upendra Yadav-led Federal Democratic Alliance (FDA) stated, "Holding an election on the basis of such a decree is akin to pushing the country towards further crisis."

In the first formal meeting between the 33-party alliance and the High Level Political Committee (HLPC) on August 6, 2013, the 33-party alliance presented its 18-point demands, which included, inter alia, resignation of the Government under Khil Raj Regmi; withdrawal of the 25-point decree issued by the President on March 13, 2013; withdrawal of all election-related decisions; and formation of a unity government. The HLPC was constituted on March 16, 2013, by the four principal political formations, to ‘assist the government’ in resolving possible problems in the political sector. HLPC members, after a meeting on August 7, 2013, which delved into the demands floated by the 33-party alliance, and without elaboration, stated that most of the demands of the parties opposing the polls would be ‘difficult to address’, while a few of these could be fulfilled without affecting the election schedule.

On August 8, 2013, Tilak Pun, state committee coordinator of the National Youth People's Volunteers (NYPV), the youth wing of CPN-Maoist-Baidya, warned, “We have trained youths in Dang, Banke, Bardiya, Kailali and Kanchanpur to disrupt the poll process.” Further, on August 16, 2013, the CPN-Maoist-Baidya started a door-to-door campaign in all the 240 electoral constituencies across the country to mobilize public support against the polls. In another endorsement of the party’s stand against the polls, on August 20, 2013, General Secretary Ram Bahadur Thapa asserted, “Elections held by this Government cannot be free and fair. The 11-point and 25-point agreements should be scrapped to open the way for fresh national consensus and legitimate elections.” Again, on August 23, 2013, Baidya reiterated that dissolution of the current Interim Election Government under Chief Justice Khil Raj Regmi was a prerequisite for any progress, and re-stated his confidence that all problems facing the country could be resolved through a round-table conference involving all parties, including the agitating alliance led by his faction of the CPN-Maoist.

It is pertinent that the proposal for the round-table conference was first made on July 14, 2013, and there have seen several overtures from the major parties and the Government, thereafter, to bring the opposing parties on board. Talks have, however, failed to begin because of the refusal of the opposing alliance to cooperate.

Significantly, despite the coordinator of the HLPC Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda’s declared willingness to sit for ‘unconditional dialogue’ and the panel’s invitation to the 33-parties alliance on July 17, 2013, Baidya asserted, on July 22, 2013, that his party would obstruct the CA polls at any cost arguing, “We shall disrupt the CA polls as the Government and the High Level Political Committee (HLPC) have invited us for talks with conditions.” Baidya reiterated that his party would not sit for talks with the Government and the four major parties until they scrapped the 11-point agreement and articles amended in the Interim Constitution.

On an understanding that the opposing alliance was, in fact, not interested in elections and was employing tactics merely to delay and obstruct the CA polls, the HLPC, on August 23, 2013, reached a decision to move towards the elections without CPN-Maoist-Baidya, if differences were not ironed out in the immediate future. NC President Sushil Koirala observed, on August 21, 2013, that any further postponement of CA elections would invite another crisis in the country. However, articulating the continuing ambivalence of the principal political parties, he added, the next day, “It is our responsibility to bring Baidya-led CPN-M and the alliance of poll-opposing parties into election fray. We can't even imagine Constituent Assembly polls in which CPN-M is not participating.”

The politics of some of major parties, however, is also pushing the boundaries of civilized political discourse. UCPN-M Chairperson Prachanda, addressing leaders and cadres of his party in Pokhara city, Kaski District, on August 7, 2013, declared that the Young Communist League (YCL), the youth wing of his party, would ‘chase off’ those engaged in the conspiracy to thwart the CA elections. Further, at a Press Conference in Kathmandu on August 11, 2013, Ganeshman Pun, Chairman of YCL, stated, “The 200 youths to be deployed in each (polling) booth will also work as a production team of the party as directed by the party chairman.” Likewise, the Youth Association Nepal (YAN), the sister organization of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) decided on August 16, 2013, to deploy its cadres in every polling booth during the CA elections. Endorsing the concept of ‘every booth effective youth’ at the second central meeting of YAN, which concluded on August 16, 2013, YAN Chairman Mahesh Basnet also announced the formation of male and female wings of a ‘Youth Force’ in the near future.  Apprehending a threat, Election Commissioner Dolakh Bahadur Gurung, on August 18, 2013, warned, “Polling booths are not a place for making a show of strength. It is the Government’s duty to provide security for polls, not cadres of any political party.”

Meanwhile, the Election Commission (EC) continued its processes of preparing for elections. On August 22, 2013, the EC disclosed that it would distribute voter Identity Cards to the around 12.3 million voters, from among the estimated 15.4 million eligible citizens, by mid-October. Earlier, on August 1, 2013, the EC had unveiled its two-month long election schedule, according to which political parties could nominate their candidates for the November 19 polls. Till date, the EC has registered 125 political parties and has allocated election symbols to them. Altogether 139 political parties have filed applications for registration with the EC.

In a bid to ensure free and fair CA elections, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), on July 29, 2013, organized an integrated security meet of five regional administrators, chiefs of three security agencies and senior Ministry officials, at the Nepal Police Headquarters in Kathmandu and discussed challenges posed by armed outfits in the Terai region and by CPN-Maoist-Baidya.

In another positive development, the Upendra Yadav-led Sanghiya Loktantrik Madheshi Morcha (SLMM) on August 15, 2013, finally agreed to take part in the ongoing election process, following a 6-point agreement between the HLPC and SLMM. As per the 6-point agreement, the key constituents of HLPC will be increased by including SLMM and other major parties that have agreed to participate in the upcoming elections. According to the agreement, the CA will have 585 seats with 240 seats under direct electoral system and 335 seats under proportional electoral system, while 10 seats will be filled through recommendations.

Moreover, on August 21, 2013, various Madhesh-based parties who were initially against the poll process, asked their District committees to recommend at least three candidates from each constituency for the CA polls. These parties included the Rajendra Mahato-led Sadbhavana Party; Mahanth Thakur-led Tarai Madhesh Democratic Party; and Bijay Kumar Gachchhadar-led Madhesi People´s Right Forum-Democratic.

The elections for a new CA are long overdue, after the first CA was dissolved on May 27, 2012, without completing its allocated task of drafting a new constitution. While processes to ensure a successful CA election in November 2013 are now gathering pace, they continue to be threatened by the disruptive posture of some political formations, as well as by continuing and hectic negotiations between those who support and those who continue to oppose the elections.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
August 19-25, 2013

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Left-wing Extremism

0
0
1
1

INDIA

 

Meghalaya

2
0
2
4

Left-wing Extremism

 

Chhattisgarh

0
1
0
1

Jharkhand

1
0
0
1

Odisha

0
0
1
1

Total (INDIA)

3
1
3
7

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

4
1
0
5

FATA

0
0
5
5

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

1
2
2
5

Punjab

11
0
1
12

Sindh

51
2
3
56

Total (PAKISTAN)

67
5
11
83
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


INDIA

Pakistan-trained terrorists planning to attack south India, says report: The Maharashtra Police have received a terror alert from central intelligence agencies warning that eight militants are undergoing training in Pakistan-based camps to attack targets in south India. The alert says that the militants will come via Sri Lanka. Times of India, August 21, 2013.

Steep increase in recovery of poppy husk and FICNs in 2013: Over 200 per cent increase has been witnessed in the recovery of poppy husk, while over 12 per cent increase has been noticed in the recovery of Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICN). In the last seven and half months from January to August, 2013, the Border Security Force (BSF) seized FICNs with the face value of over INR 52, 00,000, while the total recovery of FICNs in 2012 was around INR 46, 00,000. Similarly, the BSF has recovered around 246 kilograms of poppy husk till August 16, 2013, as compared to 5.5 kilograms recovered in 2012. Indian Express, August 18, 2013.

Number of women cadres of CPI-Maoist involved in attacks and encounters with SFs has increased perceptibly, says Union Minister of State for Home Affairs R.P.N. Singh: The Union Minister of State for Home Affairs R.P.N. Singh while replying to a question in Lok Sabha (Lower House of India Parliament) on August 13 said the number of women cadres of Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) involved in attacks and encounters with Security Forces (SFs) has increased perceptibly. The Minister added, "In recent incidents of Naxalite attacks, participation of a substantial number of female cadres has been observed. A large number of female cadres have also died in exchanges of fire with the Security Forces." Of the 65 Maoists killed by SFs in 2013, 23 are women. Women constitute about 30 percent of Maoist members. Times of India, August 21, 2013.


PAKISTAN

51 civilians and three militants among 56 persons killed during the week in Sindh: At least eight persons were killed in separate incidents in Karachi (Karachi District), the provincial capital of Sindh, on August 25.

At least 11 persons were killed in separate incidents in Karachi (Karachi District) on August 24.

At least eight persons were killed in separate incidents in Karachi (Karachi District) on August 23.

At least 13 persons were killed in separate incidents in Karachi (Karachi District) on August 21.

At least nine persons were killed in separate incidents in Karachi (Karachi District) on August 20.

At least five persons were killed in separate incidents in Karachi (Karachi District) on August 19. Daily Times; Dawn; The News; Tribune; Central Asia Online; The Nation; The Frontier Post; Pakistan Today; Pakistan Observer, August 20-26, 2013.

11 persons killed in sectarian clash in Punjab: A clash between Ahl-e-Sunnat-Wal-Jama'at (ASWJ) and members of Shia community killed 11 people in the Kotla Jam area of Bhakkar District on August 23. Police official Abdullah Khan said people were killed on both sides. Daily Times, August 24, 2013.

US Treasury imposes economic sanctions on madrassa in Peshawar for acting as training and recruiting base for al Qaeda, Taliban and LeT: The United States (US) Treasury on August 20 set economic sanctions on a madrassa (seminary) in Peshawar, the provincial capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, for acting as training and recruiting base for al Qaeda, Taliban and the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT)). The Treasury said that the Taleem-ul Quran Ganj Madrassa in Peshawar was being used as training and recruiting base by these militant groups. Tribune, August 21, 2013.

Former President General (retired) Pervez Musharraf indicted in former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto murder case: Rawalpindi Special Anti-Terrorism Court (ATC) Judge Chaudhry Habibur Rahman while hearing the December 2007 murder case of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto on August 20 indicted the former President General (retired) Pervez Musharraf. "He was charged with murder, criminal conspiracy for murder and facilitation for murder," said public prosecutor Chaudhry Azhar. However, Pervez Musharraf denied the charges. The News; Times of India, August 20, 2013.

Criminal gangs work in tandem with terrorists, Police officers tell Senate Standing Committee on Interior: Police officers of the four provinces and Gilgit Baltistan told the Senate Standing Committee on Interior on August 21 that the crime was becoming organised as various criminal groups had associated themselves with terrorist organisations like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). "We are heading for a situation like Mexico where drug lords and street criminals are operating like a corporate firm," said a senior official of the National Police Bureau. "The more serious problem in Pakistan is that terrorists and anti-state elements are getting aligned with all kinds of criminals." Dawn, August 22, 2013.

We welcome the offer of talks by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, says TTP Punjab Chapter 'chief' Ismatullah Muawiya: Punjab Chapter of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on August 22 welcomed a call for dialogue by Prime Minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif with extremists. "We welcome the offer of talks by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The Prime Minister has shown maturity with his talks offer and he has also strengthened the desire for peace by staying executions," TTP Punjab 'chief' Ismatullah Muawiya said. PM Nawaz Sharif made the offer to extremists on August 19, 2013. The News, August 23, 2013.

Kashmir is a "national issue and the jugular vein of Pakistan", says Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif: Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on August 19 said that Kashmir is a "national issue and the jugular vein of Pakistan". He said its resolution is as dear to him as other Pakistanis. Referring to his desire to forge good relations with India, Sharif said both countries should realise that "instead of wasting their energies and resources on wars, they should wage war against poverty, ignorance and disease". Times of India, August 20, 2013.


SRI LANKA

Do not internationalize Sri Lanka's problems, says President Mahinda Rajapaksa: President Mahinda Rajapaksa on August 19 told his political rivals not to internationalize Sri Lanka's problems and instead look to settle them internally. Rajapaksa said, "Some go to India and utter different things while others go to US and do same. People must engage with the government in order to look for solutions and not clash with it." He was referring to the visit to India by the main opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and a delegation of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) on a tour of the US. Times of India, August 20, 2013.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

Publisher
K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


A Project of the
Institute For Conflict Management



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