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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 13, No. 40, April 6, 2015

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

INDIA
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SIMI: Jolt to 'Revival'
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

Two cadres of the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) were killed in an encounter with the Police near Janakipuram in Nalgonda District of the newly constituted Telangana State, on April 4, 2015. One Police Constable was killed while another Policeman was injured during the encounter. Telangana Director General of Police (DGP) Anurag Sharma in an April 5 release, stated that the slain duo were identified as Mohammed Aijazuddeen, a native of Kareli in the Narsinghpur District of Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Mohammed Aslam alias Bilal, who hailed from Ganesh Talai in the Khandwa District of MP. Sharma added, "Aijajuddeen and Aslam have been the active members of Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) in Madhya Pradesh and were involved in acts of terror in India."

According to the release, the duo were on the run since they opened fire and killed a Police Constable and a Home Guard, who were part of a police team that was checking vehicles for suspicious passengers at the Suryapet Bus Stand in Nalgonda District, in the intervening night of April 1 and 2. A circle inspector and another Home Guard were injured in the firing. The duo had also tried to stop a car at gunpoint and injured one civilian when the driver of the car sped on.

Significantly, the slain SIMI cadres were part of the six member SIMI gang, led by Abu Fazal alias Doctor, which had escaped from Tantya Bheel Jail in Khandwa District on October 1, 2013. While Abu Fazal was arrested from Barwani District in MP on December 23, 2013, another three, identified as Zakir Hussain alias Sadiq, Mehboob alias Guddu, and Amjad Ramzan, are still on run. These SIMI cadres had escaped from jail along with another inmate, Abid Mirza Beg (all housed in barrack No. 2 of the jail from August 2013). Abid Mirza Beg was arrested from Sarvodaya Colony in Khandwa within four hours of the jailbreak.

According to reports, after their escape from the jail, these SIMI cadres had carried out several attacks across India, including the following:

July 10, 2014: Five people, including a Policeman, were injured in a low intensity bomb blast near Dagdusheth Halwai Ganapati temple in Pune in Maharashtra. The bomb was placed on a motorcycle in the parking area of Faraskhana and Vishrambaug Police Stations, located about 200 metres from the temple.

May 1, 2014: One passenger, identified as Swathi, died and another nine were injured in a bomb blast in the Guwahati-Bangalore Express train stationed at the Chennai Central Station in Chennai (Tamil Nadu).

It was, however, the September 12, 2014, low-intensity blast inside a house in the Jalan locality under the Kotwali Police Station area of Bijnor District in Uttar Pradesh, which brought the group once again under the radar of the intelligence agencies. Though no casualty was reported, Police recovered some explosives, remains of a half-assembled bomb, seven kilograms of matchsticks kept in cartons, another four large packs of matchboxes, one .32 bore pistol and a laptop.

Subsequently, it was found that the group had close linkages with members of the Burdwan module of the Bangladeshi terror outfit, Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB). An accidental explosion took place in a rented two-storey house at Khagragarh under the Burdwan Police Station in West Bengal, on October 2, 2014. Two persons were killed and another sustained injuries in the blast.

The Abu Fazal-led gang was also suspected to be involved in several cases of dacoity and bank robberies in different parts of MP, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha and Telangana. In one such operation, the group had looted an SBI [State Bank of India] branch in Karimnagar District in Telangana on February 1, 2014, and had decamped with INR 4.6 million.

Significantly, the six escapees were among eight SIMI/IM (Indian Mujahideen) suspects arrested by the Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS) of MP Police from Jabalpur and Bhopal on June 5, 2011, in connection with the November 29, 2009, triple murder of MP ATS trooper Sitaram Yadav, lawyer Sanjay Pal and bank officer Ravi Shankar Pare in Khandwa. They were also reportedly involved in the June 2011 killing of another ATS trooper, Bharat Singh Raghuvanshi, in Ratlam District in MP, as well as the August 23, 2010, INR 25 million gold robbery in Bhopal, MP. Other banks in Itarsi city, Hoshangabad District, and the Dewas District of MP had also been looted by them.

The killing of the SIMI cadres is a big success for the Security Forces (SFs) and intelligence agencies, as this group of SIMI cadres had been extremely active and planned to create havoc. Earlier interrogation reports of the two slain SIMI cadres, obtained while they were in Khandawa jail, and of their chief Abu Fazal, indicated that they sought to be the real face of home-grown terror, swearing allegiance to Taliban and al Qaeda and looking beyond the patronage of Pakistan’s external intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), under which IM had been operating.

The threat of this particular group continues to loom large, as three other escapees remain at large. The recovery of a railway ticket, dated April 2, 2014, for travel between New Delhi and Hyderabad, from the latest encounter site, hinted at the possible role of a third suspect, and it seems that the other three escapees remain active. An unnamed senior Police officer was quoted as stating, "The slain Aslam Ayub and Mohammed Aijazuddeen were in Nalgonda District on April 2 and 3 (while they were on the run). So, there is no question of any of the two purchasing a train ticket in Delhi. We suspect that someone came from Delhi and met them on the night of April 3.”

The challenge of neutralizing the remaining cadres of this SIMI gang in particular, and dismantling the wider SIMI network, at large, remains significant, despite the successful onslaught against the IM and its subsequent ‘loss of power’. SIMI, IM’s parent organization, has been attempting to ‘fill the vacuum’ created by the losses inflicted on IM cadres and leadership. Indeed, SFs have so far arrested a total of 36 SIMI cadres over the past two years, resulting in dramatic losses of operational capabilities and widespread demoralization, particularly in IM. Security and intelligence agencies are likely to capitalize on present successes and information gleaned, to suppress any attempts at revival by SIMI. There is, moreover, a growing sense of urgency in this task, with the increasing visibility and international presence of global jihadi formation such as al Qaeda and Islamic State (IS). India’s security apparatus appears to have adopted an extremely proactive operational posture, and has succeeded in neutralizing several Islamist extremist cells, and in interdicting several youth who planned to travel to Iraq-Syria to join up with IS. It remains to be seen whether surviving elements within the SIMI/IM complex are able to inflict significant future damage before the agencies discover and neutralize their networks.

INDIA
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J&K: Steady Escalation
Sanchita Bhattacharya
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On March 21, 2015, two terrorists dressed in Indian Army fatigue were killed during an attack at an Army camp on the Jammu-Pathankote National Highway in the Samba District of Jammu Division. Three persons, including a civilian, an Army Major and an Army jawan (trooper), were injured during the attack.

Just a day earlier, on March 20, a fidayeen (suicide) squad of terrorists in Army fatigues stormed a Police Station in the Kathua District of Jammu Division, resulting in the death of six persons, including three Security Force (SF) personnel, two civilians and two terrorists. 12 persons were injured in the attack, including eight Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel, three Policemen and a civilian. Two AK-47 rifles with 21 magazines and 156 rounds, 19 live grenades, two wire cutters, two pistols and 61 rounds, were recovered from the possession of the slain attackers.

On November 27-28, 2014, 12 persons, including five civilians, three Army soldiers and four members of a terrorist suicide squad, were killed in an encounter at border village of Kathaar in the Arnia Sector, close to the International Border (IB) in the Jammu District.

According to reports the attackers had infiltrated from across the border just before carrying out the attacks on all the three occasions.

According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), a total of 91 persons, including 23 civilians, 27 SF personnel and 41 terrorists, have been killed in seven Districts of the Jammu Division of the State since 2012 (data till April 2, 2015). These Districts included Jammu, Kathua, Kishtwar, Poonch, Rajouri, Ramban and Samba. The total number of fatalities across J&K during this period stands at 521.  In the current year, 2015, 30 people have been killed in J&K, including two civilians, six SF personnel and 22 terrorists. In the Jammu Division alone, eight persons have been killed in 2015, including two civilians, three SF personnel and three terrorists. J&K is administratively divided into three parts – Jammu Division, with 10 Districts; Kashmir Division (also known as the Valley), accounting for another 10 Districts; and Ladakh Division, with two Districts.

Significantly, according to the State Home Ministry, by the end of 2011, at least seven Districts in the State had been declared completely free of militancy. These included five in the Jammu Division - Jammu, Samba, Kathua, Reasi and Doda; and Leh and Kargil in the Ladakh Division, which had never seen significant terrorism. Another five Districts in the Jammu Division - Kishtwar, Ramban, Poonch, Rajouri and Udhampur - had reported terrorism-related incidents ‘in single digits’.

Buoyed by this success, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) had asked the State Government, in January 2012, to take measures to free more Districts from militancy. Regrettably, however, current trends suggest, the opposite has happened.  

Meanwhile, as reported on March 29, 2015, the Border Security Force (BSF) has submitted a report to UMHA stating that terrorist launch pads have been activated within three kilometers from the Jammu border. Bada Bhai Masroor, Abhial Dogra, Sukhmal and Charkbhura in the Narowal District and Chaprar in the Sialkot District of the Punjab Province in Pakistan, close to the Jammu border, have been identified as the launch pads that are being controlled by Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). Terrorists who have undergone training in camps in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) have been brought to these forward areas and are on standby to strike at short notice.

Moreover, according to an April 1, 2015, report, the Intelligence Bureau has warned that at least six terrorist outfits, including Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), LeT, Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM), Tahreek-e-Jehad (Movement for Holy War), Al Badar and another unnamed terror outfit, backed by Pakistan, are on standby mode, waiting to launch attacks, primarily in Jammu Division. According to the report, the militants are planning attacks on security installations inside Rajouri and Poonch Districts.

A design to widen the arc of terror appears to be crystallizing. Indeed, as a result of the active domination of the Line of Control (LoC) by the Indian Army, routes along the IB are now being activated for infiltration by the Pakistan Army and its spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). According to SATP data available since March 1, 2000, though there were no infiltration related incidents along the IB till May 9, 2008, at least 40 such incidents have been recorded thereafter (data till April 2, 2015).

Moreover, intelligence reports indicate that the heavy shelling by the Pakistani side along the IB in recent past was being carried out to support terrorist infiltration bids. According to a March 29, 2015, report, an unnamed BSF officer observed, "Low-scale firing across the border has been going on almost every day for the past few months. There has been a pattern. When there is heavy shelling in an area, apparently to divert our attention, it is noticed that infiltration is being planned from an adjoining area." Arnia, Paharpur, Samba, Kathua and Akhnoor in Jammu have been the vulnerable spots in the terror groups' plans to infiltrate into the Indian side.

Talking about ceasefire violations, Army Chief General Dalbir Singh Suhag noted, on January 13, 2015, that the action has slowly moved to the IB from the LoC: “That is probably, likely to be because our counter infiltration grid is stronger on LoC.” Partial data compiled by SATP confirms the trend: out of 42 incidents of ceasefire violation reported in 2015, 41 were recorded along the IB. In fact, incidents of Cease Fire Agreement (CFA) violations at the IB have been on constant increase since 2009, except for year 2011. According to SATP’s partial data, the number of CFA violations along the IB stood at 7 in 2009, 26 in 2010, 11 in 2011, 23 in 2012, 24 in 2013 and 38 in 2014.

These trends also coincide with a recent escalation in terrorist violence in the State. It is significant that terrorist violence in J&K dropped consistently and dramatically from a peak in 2001, when 4,507 fatalities were recorded, to just 117 fatalities in 2012. 2013 and 2014, however, have registered a spike, with 181 and 193 fatalities, respectively.

Recognizing the rising threat of terrorism and Pakistan-backed infiltration, the Centre has reportedly released INR 100 million as the first installment for land acquisition and construction of a protective shield all along the 198 kilometer-long IB in the Jammu region to save civilians from firing by the Pakistani Rangers and to curb infiltration by terrorists from across the border. UMHA has assured the State Government that the funds would be no problem as the proposed defences would not only check infiltration of militants but also serve as protective shield for the civilians from small arms’ fire, though not from mortars and rocket launchers.

The most recent attack in the Kathua-Samba sector demands a review of existing security procedures and Force responsibility. The IB and the LoC have very different security topographies and related intelligence grids. While a determined group of terrorists from across the border could breach the IB in a matter of a few hours, a similar action across the more heavily defended LoC could take as many days. Improving the cordon along the IB must, consequently, rank high in any holistic security review that Delhi and Srinagar may undertake.

On March 22, 2015, the Parliamentary Standing Committee of the Home Ministry advised that, while various aspects of terrorism in J&K have been well documented, all these facts should still be brought out in the form of a White Paper as part of a single document for public information – and hopefully, an objective debate in the legislature. India’s J&K policy has long been hobbled by incoherence and drift, and a focused effort to bring it in line with a consistent and clearly articulated strategy is now an imperative. The relative decline in violence since the peak of 2001 and the political mandate that high participation rates in the Assembly elections of November-December 2014 provide a window of opportunity to secure the necessary clarity of strategy and response, and it would be an unforgivable failure on the part of the Government if this is not capitalized on.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
March 30 - April 5, 2015

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Islamist

1
0
0
1

INDIA

 

Arunachal Pradesh

0
3
0
3

Assam

1
0
2
3

Jammu and Kashmir

0
2
0
2

Manipur

1
2
2
5

Meghalaya

0
0
1
1

Nagaland

0
0
1
1

Telangana

0
3
2
5

Left-wing Extremism

 

Bihar

1
0
0
1

Chhattisgarh

0
0
2
2

Jharkhand

0
0
2
2

Total (INDIA)

3
10
12
25

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

9
1
6
16

FATA

0
8
27
35

KP

3
1
1
5

Sindh

6
2
9
17

PAKISTAN (Total)

18
12
43
73
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH

Buffer cell of ABT murdered blogger Mohamad Oyasiqur Rahman Babu, say Police: Police on April 1 said that a buffer cell of Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) murdered blogger Mohamad Oyasiqur Rahman Babu (27) on March 30 in Dhaka city and had been planned at least 15 days prior. ABT had used similar buffer cells, that they call "sleeper cell", for murdering Avijit Roy, another liberal blogger with atheist views, on February 27. The sleeper cells are managed by one field commander who recruits, trains and indoctrinates suitable candidates to carry out their plots. The cell members can only name that field commander and it becomes impossible to connect these plots to the larger organization or its leadership. Dhaka Tribune, April 2, 2015.


INDIA

JeM and LeT men waiting to enter Jammu and Kashmir, say Intelligence inputs: Various inputs from Central intelligence agencies point towards the presence of groups of both Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) terrorists waiting to infiltrate at various locations along the Line of Control (LoC) and International Border (IB) in Jammu and Kashmir. The inputs warn that LeT militants, led by one Mohammed Hussain alias Mani, are waiting to infiltrate from Derinala, while another group of five JeM terrorists has arrived from Kotli in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and has been camping at Shahbaz post. Asian Age, April 4, 2015.

IB warns of suicide attack in Delhi: Intelligence Bureau (IB) warned of Pakistan-based terror groups, led by the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), planning to carry out fidayeen (suicide) strikes in Delhi. Meanwhile, the IB has also warned of the JeM planning to target Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM) workers in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), particularly in Kulgam District. The IB has drawn up a list of CPM workers who contested Assembly elections in 2014 and may be on the Hizbul Mujahideen (HM) hit list as well. Decan Chronicle, April 4, 2015.

LeT and JeM using 'Afzal Guru squad' to launch attacks in Jammu and Kashmir, says report: The recent fidayeen (suicide) attacks in Kathua and Samba in Jammu and Kashmir were allegedly carried out by the newly formed terror outfit, 'Afzal Guru squad'. According to the reports, the outfit, which was formed after the hanging of the 2001 Parliament attack convict, has become a cause of concern for Indian Security Forces (SFs). Afzal Guru's hanging at New Delhi's Tihar Jail in February 9, 2013 had triggered widespread protests in the Valley, and militants had vowed to avenge the execution. Banglore Mirror, April 3, 2015.

India and Thailand agree to strengthen security cooperation: India and Thailand have agreed to strengthen their defence and strategic cooperation, maritime security and counter-terrorism, with top Thai leaders strongly supporting the new government's "Act East" policy. Ajit Doval, National Security Advisor (NSA) to Prime Minister stated, "The overall kinetics was very positive. We discussed a range of issues, including terrorist activities, defence production, keeping the sea lanes safe, piracy, human trafficking and terrorism". New Indian Express, April 3, 2015.

Ten sarpanches killed in Kashmir in last four years, says Jammu and Kashmir Government: The Jammu and Kashmir Government on April 1 said ten sarpanches (elected head of village level local self government institution) have been killed and three injured by militants in the Valley in the last four years while 20 resigned following threats from militant outfits. In a written reply in the State Assembly, Minister for Rural Development and Panchayati Raj, Abdul Haq Khan also said that the State Government was sensitive to the issue of safety of panchayat (village level local self Government institution) representatives in Kashmir and was taking various measures to instill confidence in them. Times of India, April 3, 2015.

Chinese arms being supplied to North East insurgents through Manipur, reports NIA: National Investigation Agency (NIA) interrogation of IK Songbijit faction of National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-IKS) has revealed that Chinese made weapons come to Manipur through the China-Myanmar-India border. According to the interrogation report, arms consignments are smuggled from the China border to South Myanmar by the Kachin rebels who hand over the weapons to Isak-Muivah faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM) in Myanmar. NSCN-IM then passes on the weapons to NDFB-IKS in Manipur which are taken to Assam's Bodoland area, where NDFB operates. Forty six NDFB-IKS militants have been arrested so far by the NIA after December 2014 massacre of tribals. Sangai Express, April 2, 2015.

30 Nations including India join hands against terrorism: India, Pakistan as well as the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) are among the 30 Nations who have joined hands for a group, 'Group of Friends Against Terrorism' launched on April 1 at the initiative of Morocco at the United Nations (UN). In addition to China, France, Russia, United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US), the group has representation from the five continents. Morocco's Permanent Representative to the UN Ambassador Omar Hilale presided over the launch of the group, which aims to "create synergies between all initiatives" implemented within the UN, promoting international cooperation in combating terrorism, share and exchange good practices in the fight against this scourge that threatens international peace and security. Economic Times, April 2, 2015.

Over 250 NDFB-IKS militants arrested in Assam since December 2014 massacre: Over 250 militants of IK Songbijit faction of National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-IKS) have been apprehended, and four killed, in an operation launched by the Unified Command (UC) after the Adivasi massacre in the State on December 23, 2014. The forces have also recovered huge cache of arms and ammunition. Times of India April 1, 2015.

Prime Minister Modi assures solution to Indo-Naga peace talks in 18 months: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has assured a solution to the Indo-Naga peace talk within the next 18 months. According to a well placed source, the Government of India (GoI) assured Isak-Muivah faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM) leadership in December last year that the political dialogue would be brought to a logical conclusion within the next 18 months. Sangai Express, April 1, 2015.


NEPAL

Rectify nine-point joint proposal, says UCPN-M to ruling parties: Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) on April 2, sought revision of the nine-point joint proposal forwarded by Nepali Congress (NC) and Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) in line with the January19 understanding between parties as a way out of the current political stalemate. Talking to journalists at the parliamentary party office in Singha Durbar, Kathmandu, and UCPN-M Chief Whip Giri Raj Mani Pokhrel said consensus has become illusive as ruling parties continue to stick to their nine-point proposal. Republica, April 3, 2015.


PAKISTAN

27 militants and eight SF among 35 persons killed during the week in FATA: At least 16 people including 12 militants and four soldiers were killed during fierce fighting in Utmela area of the Orakzai Agency in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on April 5.

Meanwhile, 10 militants were killed and several others injured when fighter jets bombed their hideouts in Dwa Toi and Takhtakai areas of Kukikhel in Khyber Agency on April 5.

Helicopter gunships conducted several air sorties, as part of the ongoing Khyber-II operation , killing at least five suspected Lashkar-i-Islam (LI) militants and destroying hideouts in Nangrosa, Spin Drand and Thor Khel areas of Sipah of Tirah valley on April 4 morning. Daily Times; Dawn; The News; Tribune; Central Asia Online; The Nation; The Frontier Post; Pakistan Today; Pakistan Observer,  March 31-April 6, 2015.  

Army will accomplish mission to eliminate terrorism irrespective of cost, says CoAS General Raheel Sharif: According to a press release issued by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) on April 1, the Chief of Army Staff (CoAS) General Raheel Sharif said that the Pakistan Army would not stop short of accomplishing its mission to eliminate terrorism, irrespective of the cost. He said that the military is fully prepared to deter and defeat any form of aggression. Tribune, April 2, 2015.

Sindh IGP says targeted operation be made effective, successful: Inspector General of Police (IGP) Sindh Ghulam Haider Jamali presided over a meeting on security at Central Police Office in Karachi on March 30 and said that the ongoing targeted operation should also be made effective and successful besides bring criminals to their logical end. The meeting reviewed the performance of Police, Counter Terrorism Department, Crime Branch Sindh and National Action Plan. It was decided to smash drug and gambling dens in the city through effective Police crackdown. Daily Times, April 1, 2015.

Karachi operation a 'debt' Government has paid off, says Defence Minister Khawaja Asif: The Defence Minister Khawaja Asif on March 30 said the Karachi operation was a 'debt' that the Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz (PML-N)-led Government had paid off. Addressing a seminar at the WAPDA House, he said that the Government took major decisions like the Operation Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan and also launched a targeted operation in Karachi to eliminate terrorism and crime. The News, March 31, 2015.


SRI LANKA

Army not to withdraw troops, camps from North, says Army Commander Lieutenant General Krishantha de Silva: The newly-appointed Commander of the Army, Lieutenant General Krishantha de Silva said that Sri Lanka Army has not withdrawn the troops or camps in the North. In an interview, the Army Commander has stressed that safeguarding territorial sovereignty was of paramount importance and assured to take all measures to prevent the resurgence of militancy in the North. The Commander added that the President, who is Commander-In-Chief, and he, himself are committed to achieving national security. Colombo Page, April 1, 2015. 

There is a real danger that LTTE could regroup, warns Deputy Foreign Minister Ajith P Perera: Deputy Foreign Minister Ajith P Perera on March 30 warned that there is a real danger that the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) could regroup and wage another war for an independent Tamil homeland, six years after they were militarily defeated. Perera said that "Their front organisations operate businesses abroad, they run petrol stations, supermarkets and have shipping companies." "Even though they have been defeated on the ground, there is a real danger of their trying to regroup," he said. His comments came after the Sri Lankan government pushed the European Union (EU) to again blacklist the LTTE. Colombo Page, April 1, 2015. 


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

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K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


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