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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 16, No. 25, December 18, 2017
 
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Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Telangana:
Bhadradri Kothagudem: LWE Losses
Ajit
Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
Eight cadres
of the Chandra Pulla Reddy Bata faction of the Communist
Party of India – Marxist Leninist (CPI-ML,
Chandra Pulla Reddy Bata faction) were killed in an encounter
with Police in the Mellamadugu forest area under Tekulapally
mandal (administrative unit) in the Bhadradri Kothagudem
District on December 14, 2017. The deceased were identified
as Etti Kumar aka Rakhi (35), Jakkati Praveen Kumar
aka Azad (24), Nunavath Arjun aka Naveen
(22), Boina Omprakash aka Ganesh (22), Easam Naresh
aka Sudharshan (30), Turkuli Madhu (35), Gadudula
Srinu (40), and Bhattu Adinarayana (38). Police also recovered
a Self-Loaded Rifle (SLR), three 8mm rifles, two guns,
and some other materials. The dead body of another cadre,
identified as Rachakonda Kiran alias Karthik, was
recovered on December 16.
On November
26, 2017, suspected Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist)
cadres killed a tribal man, branding him a 'Police informer',
at Peddamidisileru village in Charla Mandal in
the Bhadradri Kothagudem District. The Police identified
the deceased as Sodi Prasad (45), a native of Peddamidisileru,
an interior village close to the State's border with Chhattisgarh.
On September
21, 2017, two cadres of the New Democracy faction of the
Communist Party of India-Marxist-Leninist (CPI-ML-New
Democracy) were killed in an encounter
with the Police in the Sidharam Forest area of Tekulapalli
mandal in Bhadradri Kothagudem District.
According
to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism
Portal (SATP), the district has recorded at least
12 fatalities [11 Left wing Extremists (LWEs) and one
civilian] in three incidents of killing so far in 2017
(data till December 17). However, no other violent incident
like explosion or arson was reported in 2017.
No violent
incident was reported in the District in 2016.
Bhadradri
Kothagudem was carved out of Telangana’s Khammam District
on October 11, 2016. Telangana itself was carved out of
Andhra Pradesh as a separate State on June 2, 2014. Khammam
was one of 23 Districts in united Andhra Pradesh and became
part of Telangana after the reorganization of Andhra Pradesh.
In 2005,
Bhadradri Kothagudem was one of the violent most regions
in Khammam District and had alone accounted for at least
62 fatalities (including 20 civilians, two Security Force,
SF, personnel, and 40 LWEs) in 41 incidents of killing
out of a total of 106 fatalities (42 civilians, three
SF personnel, and 61 LWEs) recorded in 72 incidents of
killing in the entire Khammam District till December 17,
2017. During this entire period, the States of Andhra
Pradesh and Telangana (since its formation) together had
recorded at least 760 fatalities. Thus, Khammam alone
accounted for almost 13.81 per cent of the total fatalities
recorded in these two States.
Further,
out of seven major incidents (each resulting in three
or more fatalities) with a total of 27 killed, recorded
in Khammam District since 2005, five (resulting in 21
fatalities) were reported from Bhadradri Kothagudem alone.
Similarly, out of seven incidents of explosion (no fatality)
recorded in Khammam District since 2005, at least four
were reported from Bhadradri Kothagudem alone.
Spread
over a geographical area of 7,483 square kilometres, of
which around 4286.98 square kilometres (more than 57.29
per cent of its total area) is under thick forest cover,
Bhadradri Kothagudem shares boundaries with Bijapur and
Sukma Districts of Chhattisgarh State in the North and
the North East, East Godavari District of Andhra Pradesh
in the East, Khammam District (Telangana) and West Godavari
District (Andhra Pradesh) in the South and the South East,
Mahabubabad District (Telangana) in the West and Jayashankar
Bhupalapally District (Telangana) in North West. With
its District headquarters at Kothagudem town, the District
comprises of 24 mandals and two revenue divisions:
Kothagudem and Bhadrachalam.
Out of
the seven districts with which Bhadradri Kothagudem shares
borders, three (Bijapur, Sukma, and Khammam) are included
in a list of 35 worst-LWE affected Districts released
by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs in July 2017. Khammam
and Bijapur were included in the first such list released
in 2009 (when 33 worst-LWE affected Districts were identified).
Sukma was then the part of Dantewada District, which was
also listed in the 33-worst LWE affected Districts in
2009.
According
to the “District Development and Diversity Index Report
for India and Major States,” a joint survey conducted
by the US-India Policy Institute (USIPI) and the Centre
for Research and Debates in Development Policy (CRDDP),
among the 599 Districts across India covered by the survey,
Khammam ranked 232nd towards the middle of
the listing. The report of the survey, which took composite
development – measured in terms of economic development
and the indices of health, education and material well-being
– into consideration, was released on January 29, 2015.
Apart from
the dominant CPI-Maoist, several factions of CPI-ML are
active in the District. Indeed, of the seven major incidents
reported in the entire Khammam District since 2005, the
different factions of CPI-ML were found to be involved
in five, while CPI-Maoist was involved in just two. These
major incidents include:
December
14, 2017: Eight cadres of the Chandra Pulla Reddy Bata
faction of CPI-ML were killed in an encounter in the Mellamadugu
forest area under Tekulapally Mandal in Bhadradri Kothagudem
District. The dead body of another cadre, identified as
Rachakonda Kiran alias Karthik, was recovered on
December 16.
May 5,
2008: Three cadres of the Janashakti faction of the CPI-ML
(CPI-ML-Janashakti)
were killed during an encounter with a Police party in
Rollapadu Forest under the Tekulapalli Police Station
limits in Khammam District.
November
16, 2007: Three persons, including two migrant tribals
from the Bastar region of Chhattisgarh, were killed by
cadres of the CPI-Maoist in Narsingpet village of Chintoor
mandal in Khammam District.
October
19, 2007: Four cadres of the CPI-ML-Janashakthi group
were killed in an encounter with Police near Gattumalla
village in Kothagudem mandal of Khammam District.
December
31, 2006: Three CPI-Maoist cadres were killed in an encounter
with the Police in the forests of Khammam District.
December
8, 2006: Three cadres of the Pratighatana faction of CPI-ML(CPI-ML–Praja
Pratighatana) were killed in an encounter
with the Police on the Basigutta Hillocks near Kothagudem
in the Khammam District.
September
22, 2006: Three cadres of CPI-ML–Praja Pratighatana faction
were killed in an encounter with the Police in the core
area of the Kinnerasani Wildlife Sanctuary in Khammam
District.
In the
aftermath of the December 14, 2017, incident Police said
that, on July 24, 2017, a new group, called CPI-ML-Chandra
Pulla Reddy Bata, had been formed with 12 members under
the leadership of Kura Rajanna and B. Narasimhulu. According
to the Police, group members had started their activities
in four Telangana Districts – Jayashankar Bhupalpally,
Mahabubabad, Bhadradri Kothagudem and Khammam –
engaging in extortion from businessmen, conduct of ‘land
settlements’, putting up pamphlets and posters, and creating
terror. On December 3, 2017, the Police arrested three
armed extremists of the group in Jayashankar Bhupalpally
District and seized a rifle, two grenades, several rounds
of ammunition, empty magazines, and seven cell phones
from their possession.
On July
14, 2017, State Home Minister N. Narasimha Reddy, after
laying the foundation stone for the India Reserve Battalion
(IRB) premises at Chathakonda, stated that the State Government
had allocated 140 acres land at Chathakonda in neighboring
Khammam District for the IRB. The IRB establishment is
being set up as part of a concerted effort to further
strengthen the Police Force in LWE-affected areas in the
region, including Bhadradri Kothagudem District.
Further,
according to an August 17, 2017, report, four companies
of Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) were deployed in
neighboring Jayashankar Bhupalpally District to guard
four important irrigation projects coming up on river
Godavari: Tupakulagudem Barrage, Medigadda Barrage, Kannepalli
Pump House Project and Annaram Barrage. Earlier, on May
8, 2017, State Director General of Police (DGP) Anurag
Sharma had urged the Union Ministry of Home Affairs during
a meeting of the Police Chiefs of LWE-affected in New
Delhi, that Telangana needed Central Forces, since the
Maoists might strike at the irrigation projects in their
desperate attempts for a comeback.
Since its
formation in June 2014, Telangana has mostly remained
free of LWE violence, accounting for just 12 fatalities
(six civilians and six LWEs), prior to the December 14,
2017 incident. Nevertheless, Bhadradri Kothagudem District
remains a concern and requires significant attention.
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Lingering
Problems
S.
Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
The counting
of votes under the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system to
elect 165 House of Representative (HoR) seats and 330
Provincial Assembly (PA) seats concluded on December 13,
2017, with the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist
Leninist (CPN-UML) emerging as the single largest party.
The CPN-UML won 80 HoR seats and 167 PA seats. Its ally,
the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist
Center), bagged 36 HoR seats and 74 PA seats. The two
parties, which had formed the Left Alliance, have left
the governing Nepali Congress (NC) far behind. NC managed
to claim only 23 HoR constituencies and 41 PA constituencies.
The Rastriya Janata Party-Nepal (RJP-N) won 11 HoR and
16 PA seats, while the Federal Socialist Forum-Nepal (FSF-N)
won 10 HoR and 24 PA seats. The Naya Shakti Party-Nepal
(NSP-N), Nepal Workers Peasants Party (NWPP), Rastriya
Janamorcha, Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and an independent
candidate emerged victorious in one HoR constituency each.
In PA elections, independent candidates registered wins
in three constituencies, NSP-N and Rastriya Janamorcha
in two each, and NWPP in one.
Vote counting
under the proportional representation (PR) system concluded
on December 17, 2017, with the CPN-UML set to win the
largest number of PR seats in the HoR. Out of 49 parties
that contested PR elections, only five — the CPN-UML,
the NC, CPN-Maoist Center, the FSF-N and the RJP-N — were
able to secure three per cent votes, the required threshold
to be recognized as national parties. Among the five parties,
the CPN-UML got 3,173,494 votes, followed by NC’s 3,128,389,
CPN-Maoist Center’s 1,303,721, RJP-N’s 472,254 and FSF-N’s
270,201 votes. Of the total of 275 members in Parliament,
110 will be elected under the PR category while 165 have
already been elected through the FPTP electoral system.
Experts estimate that the CPN-UML will get 41 seats, NC
40 seats, CPN-Maoist Center 17 seats and RJP-N and FSF-N
six seats each. However, EC Spokesperson Navaraj Dhakal
stated on December 17, 2017, “The final results of the
PR category will be made public only after verifying the
poll results. It may take some time to announce the number
of seats won by the five parties under the PR category."
HoR and
PA elections were held in two phases after a gap of 18
years. The
first phase for 37 HoR and 74 PA seats
was held across 32 Hill Districts in six Provinces on
November 26, 2017. 65 per cent of 3.19 million voters
cast their votes. Voting for the remaining seats was held
on December 7, 2017, in the second phase covering 45 Districts,
including Kathmandu valley and the southern plains of
Nepal known as the Terai. 70 per cent of the 12.21 million
voters cast their votes in the second phase. This is for
the first time that elections for HoR and PA are being
conducted under the new Constitution
adopted on September 20, 2015. The
last parliamentary poll was held in 1999.
After the
conclusion of the elections, the Carter Center, Election
Observation Mission (EOM), Nepal at a Press meet in the
capital, Kathmandu, on December 9, 2017, commented that
the elections held in two phases were completed successfully
despite political tensions, logistical, operational and
security challenges and tight timelines. Similarly, on
December 10, 2017, the European Union (EU) Election Observation
Mission (EOM) also noted that the EC successfully organized
the logistics of the election in two phases in a very
short timeframe. Separately, domestic election observation
agencies including the National Election Observation Committee
(NOEC), General Election Observation Committee (GEOC)
and Inclusive Women Network for Peace, Justice and Democracy,
issue a joint press statement on December 12, 2017, remarking
that, despite the short period provided for preparations
and incidents aimed at undermining the independence of
election, political parties, general voters and citizens
participated enthusiastically.
Some violent
incidents were, nevertheless, reported during the polls.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia
Terrorism Portal (SATP), 17 persons were injured in
six incidents of bomb explosion and another 15 were injured
in six incidents of clashes between political parties
during the first phase. One person was killed and 26 were
injured in five incidents of bomb explosion, and another
six were injured in three incidents of clashes during
the second phase.
Expectedly,
CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli and CPN-Maoist Centre Chairman
Pushpa Kamal Dahal during a meeting in Kathmandu, on December
15, 2017, agreed to initiate the processes of forming
a new Government and unifying their parties simultaneously.
Earlier, prioritizing Government formation rather than
party unification, senior CPN-Maoist Center leader Narayan
Kaji Shrestha had stated, on December 12, 2017, that leaders
of the two parties had agreed to form the new Government
by mid-January and pursue merger afterwards. According
to Shrestha, before the parties unite they need to draft
the merged party’s ideology document and finalize party
structure and organization, all of which was quite time
consuming.
On the
other hand, NC and the CPN-UML are at odds as to whether
the new Prime Minister should be elected prior to the
formation of the National Assembly (NA), the upper house
of Parliament. CPN-UML claims that the new Prime Minister
can be appointed by the President even prior to the election
of the Upper House. But NC, which has met with a humiliating
defeat in the just concluded polls, insists that Parliament
can’t take full shape without the election of the Upper
House. NC leaders are also urging the EC to ensure at
least 33 percent women’s representation in Parliament
as a whole, including HoR and NA, arguing that if a sufficient
number of women lawmakers are not elected to NA, the EC
needs to ask political parties to make up the shortfall
from the Lower House.
Meanwhile,
terming the NC’s claim invalid, former Law Minister and
CPN-UML leader Agni Kharel stated, on December 14, 2017,
“Article 86 (1A) of the Constitution has a mandatory provision
that at least three women must be elected from each of
the seven provinces, which will be enough to ensue 33
percent women in the National Assembly. So why should
the EC wait for the PR seat allocations? The new government,
immediately after it is formed, will bring in the law
for election of the National Assembly. So we shouldn’t
engage in a procedural dispute over the formation of the
new government.”
Lawyers
are also divided on whether NA elections should be held
before the formation of the new Government or after. Senior
Advocate Surendra Kumar Mahato and General Secretary of
Nepal Bar Association Khamma Bahadur Khati observed, on
December 14, 2017, that according to Article 84 (8) of
the Constitution, if any party failed to ensure 33 per
cent women’s representation in Parliament through the
parliamentary and NA elections, such a party would be
required to elect its PR members in such a way that could
ensure 33 per cent women in the Parliament. He argued
that the EC could announce the final results of PR elections
only after NA elections were held. Meanwhile, Advocate
Dipendra Jha argyed that since the current Government
had suffered a debacle in the polls, it would be better
if the new Government brought a new law to govern the
Upper House elections.
CPN-UML
Chairman KP Sharma Oli held a meeting with President Bidhya
Devi Bhandari on December 15, 2017, to discuss the National
Assembly Election Ordinance. The National Assembly Members
Election Bill was supposed to have been passed by Parliament
on October 4, 2017. As the CPN-UML and CPN-Maoist Centre
were against the Bill, the Government was forced to withdraw
it. However, on October 24, 2017, the Sher Bahadur Deuba-led
Government issued the National Assembly Election Ordinance,
which contains the provision of the Single Transferable
Vote (STV) system. The Ordinance has been pending at the
Office of the President due to a dispute between parties
over the electoral system.
The governing
NC is in favour of adopting the STV system, while the
Left Alliance of the CPN-UML and the CPN-Maoist Centre,
the victors in the recent polls, are making a pitch for
the majoritarian system. Under the STV system, a quota
is first determined and whichever candidate gets the number
of votes to meet the quota gets elected, while the remaining
votes are transferred to the next preferable candidate.
However, under the majoritarian system, whichever candidate
gets the highest number of votes gets elected, as in the
first-past-the-post system. According to political analyst
Hari Roka, “This (STV system) might slightly benefit the
Nepali Congress which has less number of seats in local
units and provincial assemblies.” The Left Alliance has
won is over 60 percent seats in the PA. In
local level elections, CPN-UML won
295 seats, while the NC won in 265. CPN-Maoist Centre
stood third, winning 107 local units.
Meanwhile,
ignoring the objections by the Left Alliance, the Deuba-led
Government announced on December 15, 2017, that it was
preparing to appoint Governors in seven provinces within
a week. However, CPN-Maoist Centre Chairman Dahal in a
meeting with Prime Minister Deuba at his official residence
in Kathmandu on December 16, 2017, urged Deuba to make
political and constitutional appointments only on the
basis of an agreement among the three major political
parties. Stating that the elections had given a new mandate,
the CPN-Maoist Centre Chairman urged the Prime Minister
not to make the political appointments, including that
of the State Governors. Dahal also asked Prime Minister
Deuba to initiate discussions among the major parties
for a way out on the issue of NA elections. Similarly,
accusing the NC of disrespecting and refusing to accept
the people’s mandate, CPN-UML Chairman Oli observed on
December 16, 2017, “The NC has indicated that it is reluctant
to accept the popular mandate by raising the issue of
legal hurdles. It is not appropriate to wrongly use and
define a respected institution.” He also remarked that
the NC tabled an unconstitutional ordinance on the NA
election so as to suit its own interests, following their
electoral defeat in the local level elections.
After centuries
of absolute monarchy followed by decades of chaos, Nepal
is taking to democracy in a big way. Though the final
result is yet to be announced for the two phases of the
polls, the winner is clear – a coalition of two communist
parties, the CPN-UML and the CPN-Maoist Centre, who are
set to control the Government. However, issue, including
the NA election, persist.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
December
14-17, 2017
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Civilians
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Security
Force Personnel
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Terrorists/Insurgents
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Total
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INDIA
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Assamr
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2
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0
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3
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5
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Arunachal
Pradesh
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0
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0
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1
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1
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Jammu and
Kashmir
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2
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0
|
1
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3
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Left-Wing
Extremism
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|
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Chhattisgarh
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0
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0
|
2
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2
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Maharashtra
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0
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0
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1
|
1
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Odisha
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0
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0
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1
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1
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Telangana
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0
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0
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9
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9
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INDIA (Total)
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4
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0
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18
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22
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PAKISTAN
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Balochistan
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9
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0
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2
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11
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FATA
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2
|
2
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0
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4
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PAKISTAN
(Total)
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11
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2
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2
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15
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Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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