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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 1, No. 23, December 23, 2002


Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Jharkhand:
Fatalities in Naxalite Violence, 2002
|
Civilians
|
Security
Forces
|
Naxalites
|
Total
|
January |
4
|
9
|
0
|
13
|
February |
7
|
9
|
0
|
16
|
March |
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
April |
0
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
May |
4
|
15
|
5
|
24
|
June |
2
|
2
|
0
|
4
|
July |
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
August |
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
September |
6
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
October |
1
|
7
|
0
|
8
|
November |
0
|
8
|
0
|
8
|
December* |
3
|
15
|
0
|
18
|
Total |
27
|
66
|
7
|
100
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* Data
till December 22, 2002
Compiled from English
language media sources.
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Rare
Justice
Ajai Sahni
Editor, SAIR; Executive
Director, Institute for Conflict Management
The death
penalty, in Indian jurisprudence, is awarded only in cases
that are deemed to be the 'rarest of the rare'. On December
18, 2002, a special court at Delhi declared that three of
the conspirators in the attack on India's Parliament on
December 13, 2001, fell into this exclusive category, and
sentenced Mohammad Afzal, Shaukat Hussain Guru and S.A.R.
Geelani to pay the ultimate penalty for, among other charges,
'waging war against the state'. The fourth accused, Guru's
wife, Afsan Guru, was sentenced to five years rigorous imprisonment
for concealment of 'prior knowledge' of the planned terrorist
act. The conviction is seen as a major breakthrough and
a test case on India's 'controversial' counter-terrorism
legislation, the Prevention of Terrorism Act, 2002 (POTA).
The judgement itself falls into the category of the 'rarest
of the rare' on another count: it is very seldom that India's
sluggish justice system succeeds in bringing terrorists
to book - and the conviction of the accused in the Parliament
Attack case in just over a year after the event is extraordinary
in a system in which criminal trials often drag on for decades
at end. It is useful, in this context, to take a quick look
at the judicial record in Jammu & Kashmir: over 33,693 persons
have been killed in the conflict in the State (since 1988
and till December 22, 2002); this includes 12,203 civilians
and 4,575 security forces (SF) personnel. For these and
many thousands of other crimes, precisely 13 convictions
have been secured over more than thirteen years of terrorism
in the State - eight of them on relatively minor charges,
such as illegal border crossing or illegal possession of
arms and explosives, and only five, in a single case, involve
an act of terrorism resulting in death. Not a single sentence
of death has been awarded in any case of terrorist violence
in Jammu & Kashmir since terrorism took root in the State
in 1989.
These astonishing numbers alone cannot convey the enormity
and the horror of the situation that prevails on the ground.
To say that 14 civilians were killed by terrorists in the
last week, for instance, does not communicate - and indeed
conceals - the fact that this number includes three young
children who were murdered in cold blood in the presence
of their father (who was also injured); that it also includes
four unfortunate women who were dragged out of their homes
and killed - two shot dead at point blank range, and the
other two brutally beheaded by their fanatical tormentors,
either to avenge their alleged connection with 'kafirs',
or for their failure to wear the veil as decreed by the
jehadis.
Harsh as it may sound, these victims of terror were, in
some perverse sense, fortunate that death came swiftly.
Others have not been that lucky. Among details available
with the Institute for Conflict Management, of over
667 atrocities committed by terrorists against women and
children, are many utterly gruesome accounts of gang rapes,
torture and mutilation over days at end, culminating in
a death that would have come as a relief to the victims.
The headline of a national daily spoke of the December 13
attack on Parliament having been 'avenged' by the conviction
of the four accused. It is not clear whether any significant
proportion of these thousands of other outrages will ever
be similarly 'avenged' by the judicial process.
The decision in the Parliament attack case demonstrates
that the Indian justice system can respond when it chooses
to. Earlier, in the case of the assassination of then Prime
Minister Indira Gandhi, a conviction had been secured within
fifteen months. The case of Rajiv Gandhi's assassination
was more complicated, and judgement came after over five
years in Court - but the process was more or less inexorable.
There have been other cases - usually in areas not deeply
afflicted by terrorism - where the investigative and judicial
process has yielded just punishment against perpetrators
of terrorist excesses. By and large, however, what is witnessed
has been described
by K.P.S. Gill, who led the successful campaign against
terrorism in the State of Punjab, as a "complete abdication,
indeed collapse, of judicial accountability in situations
of persistent mass violence and terrorism."
It is useful, in this context, to note that, even where
prosecutions were launched against terrorists under the
Terrorist and Disruptive Activities (Prevention) Act (TADA)
- the much-maligned precursor of the present POTA, which
was allowed to lapse in 1995 - the conviction rate was under
two percent. By contrast, the conviction rate under a legislation
with comparable provisions, though it is primarily directed
against organised crime and not terrorism, - the Maharashtra
Control of Organised Crime Act (MCOCA)
- has been as high as 78 per cent.
The 'deterrent' impact of counter-terrorism legislation
cannot be secured by judgements in an occasional high profile
case, where thousands of daily excesses and brutalities
go entirely unpunished. Unfortunately, as Gill notes again,
"The present judicial system is simply incapable of securing
the levels of efficiency and delivering the quality of justice
that are required to counter and contain the enormous threats
that currently exist to national security…"
Nor, indeed, has the attack on Parliament been quite 'avenged'
by the present judgement. The five primary perpetrators
of the attack had been killed during the operation itself.
The four convicted in the case were arraigned for their
role in facilitating the strike and providing a safe haven
to the fidayeen (suicide) squad. The primary conspirators,
however, remain entirely outside the pale of law. The chargesheet
mentions Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) as
the chief instigator of the plot, which was executed by
cadres of the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM)
and Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT).
The chargesheet indicts JeM chief, Mohammad Masood Azhar
as the 'mastermind' behind the plot, and two other JeM 'commanders',
Ghazi Baba and Tariq Ahmad are said to have been responsible
for its execution. Ghazi Baba and Tariq Ahmad have been
declared proclaimed offenders. Masood Azhar is on India's
list of 'twenty most wanted' that had been handed over to
Pakistan in the wake of the attack on Parliament. Azhar
was recently released from 'house arrest' by a Pakistani
court. There is little prospect of any of the three being
brought to justice in the foreseeable future.
The special court's judgement is, moreover, not the end
of the story even as far as the four convicted are concerned.
There is certain to be an appeal in which a wide range of
procedural and evidentiary issues will be raised, and the
outcome is entirely unpredictable. It is useful to note
that, in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case, 26 persons
had been sentenced to death by the trial Court. Eventually,
however, 19 of these were acquitted by the Supreme Court,
and another three had their sentences commuted to imprisonment
for life.
"If judicial action is to have any credibility among the
people, and any deterrent impact," Gill notes, "especially
on the hardened cadres of terrorist and organised crime
groupings, the link between crime and punishment must be
swift and inexorable." It is clear that this is far from
the case in the Indian situation, and immensely more so
in areas seriously afflicted by the scourge of terrorism.
Jharkhand:
Leftist Carnage
Sanjay K Jha
Research Associate,
Institute for Conflict Management
In one of
the most daring attacks on security forces (SFs) in the
Indian State of Jharkhand, Left-Wing extremists - called
Naxalites - of the Maoist Communist Centre (MCC)
ambushed a police convoy killing 13 police personnel and
injuring 15 others, according to official sources, in the
dense forests at Bitkilsoya, under the Manoharpur police
station area, West Singhbhum district, on December 20, 2002.
The Naxalites also set ablaze 11 vehicles in the convoy
and looted arms and ammunition. Some 70 policemen were in
the cavalcade that was attacked.
The attack came at a time when the State government was
claiming to have achieved remarkable success in its anti-Naxalite
operations. A booklet, 'Achievements in 22 Months', brought
out by the State government in November 2002, on the occasion
of the second anniversary of the creation of the State of
Jharkhand, claimed that police morale was very high as it
had been 'successful in containing extremism'. The government
claimed further that the continuous pressure on the extremists
had 'lowered their morale to an all time low'.
Immediately after the creation of Jharkhand, the National
Democratic Alliance (NDA) government led by Bharatiya Janata
Party's Babulal Marandi, had launched vigorous anti-Naxalite
operations. Major components of these operations included
the greater use of central paramilitary forces, joint operation
with neighbouring States, largescale arrests of Naxalites
and their sympathizers under the Prevention of Terrorism
Act (POTA),
and a rehabilitation policy to lure Naxalites to join mainstream.
A careful assessment of the activities of the Naxalite groups
in the State over the last two years, however, demonstrates
that these groups are not only expanding their influence,
but are also working to achieve their larger goal of unification
of Maoist movements in the country and across South Asia.
Such an analysis also demonstrates that the State government's
anti-Naxalite drive has failed to yield desired results
as it has not taken into account the lack of preparedness
in the police force to counter the Naxalites.
The Naxalite movement originated in the late 1960s at Naxalbari,
a small township in the Darjeeling district of West Bengal.
Inspired by the Chinese leader Mao Tse Tung's theory of
organized peasant insurrection, the Naxalites reject parliamentary
democracy and believe in capturing power through protracted
armed struggle based on guerrilla warfare. The Naxalbari
movement has had a continuous impact in different parts
of the country, with several groups embracing the Maoist
ideology of armed struggle in many States.
At present, Jharkhand lies squarely at the center of the
swathe of territories stretching from Bihar (indeed, from
Nepal further North), through Orissa, Chattisgarh, parts
of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, to Andhra Pradesh, that
are worst affected by Left Wing extremist violence. The
prominent Naxalite groups currently active in the State
are the MCC; the Communist Party of India, Marxist-Leninist,
(People's War), [CPI-ML (PW)], popularly known as the People's
War Group (PWG);
the CPI-ML (Liberation) - though this is a mainstream political
party it maintains armed squads in some districts; CPI-ML
(Provisional Central Committee); CPI-ML (Red Flag); CPI-ML
(Shanti Pal Group); CPI-ML (New Democracy); and the CPI-ML
(Unity Initiative) are active in Jharkhand. Of these, the
MCC and the PWG are the most formidable forces. An estimated
15 out of the 22 districts in the State are Naxalite affected,
of which the worst off are: Chatra, Palamu, Garhwa, Giridih,
Latehar, Gumla, Ranchi, Hazaribagh, Lohardaga and Bokaro.
The Naxalites run virtual parallel governments in many areas
of these districts, holding Jan Adalats (People's Courts)
to settle both civil and criminal disputes, and imposing
penalties that range from simple fines to mutilation and
death.
According to data
compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management,
a total of 100 persons, including 27 civilians, 66 SF personnel
and seven Naxalites have been killed in MCC and PWG related
violence between January 2002 and December 22, 2002. The
extreme vulnerability of the SFs in the State is apparent
in these numbers, and is borne out by the intensity and
frequency of attacks on SFs in the State. The current year
has seen a number of landmine explosions that inflicted
serious casualties on the SFs. Thus, on November 20, 2002,
eight SF personnel were killed in Latehar district. On October
9, seven police personnel were killed in Palamu district.
On June 11, a Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP) was
killed, again in Palamu district. On May 7, during an economic
blockade called by the MCC and the PWG, at least 15 police
personnel were killed in a landmine blast in Kodarma district.
On January 27, 2002, nine SF personnel were killed in Gumla
district. In the year 2001, 13 police personnel were killed
in an attack on the police station in Topchanchi, Dhanbad
district, on October 31. Four police personnel, including
a Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP), were killed and
four others seriously injured in a landmine blast in Garhwa
district, on October 4, 2001. 12 personnel of the Central
Reserve Police Force (CRPF) were killed in Hazaribagh district
on September 23. Two senior police officials, Deputy Inspector
General of Police (DIG) Hazaribagh and Superintendent of
Police (SP) Chatra, were among seven police personnel seriously
injured in a landmine blast in Chatra district, on May 6,
2001.
Jharkhand, with a dense forest cover over large parts of
the State, offers favorable terrain for the Naxalites to
operate and build their bases. Moreover, the poor performance
of institutions of civil governance in remote and tribal
areas gives the Naxalites the political space to capitalize
on popular discontent. Before the creation of Jharkhand,
the feeling was that the region was backward and neglected
because the political and bureaucratic establishment, dominated
by officials from the 'non-tribal' areas of Bihar, did not
care for the tribals. It was widely believed that a new
government that was more representative of tribal interests
would be in a better position to address their legitimate
grievances. The present NDA government has, however, failed
to revitalize the institutions of civil governance in Naxalite
affected areas. There is, moreover, a collusive arrangement
between a section of political leaders, businessmen and
bureaucrats that stems the flow of developmental funds and
activities in these areas. Indeed, it seems that the creation
of Jharkhand has helped the MCC and PWG consolidate their
roots in the region, as the potential for extortion from
contractors, traders and industrial units is greater in
the new State. According to one estimate, the Naxalites
collect at least one billion rupees a year from government
offices, contractors, businessmen and industrialists.
There is, moreover, an increasing measure of understanding
and coordination between the MCC and the PWG in the State,
which has deepened the challenge for the government. The
two groups had, in earlier years, inclined towards bloody
internecine confrontations, but have been working together
for some time now. In November 2002, a joint Statement issued
by the two groups at Patna (Bihar) stated that the indiscriminate
use of the POTA against the activists and sympathizers of
the Naxalite groups by the Jharkhand government had 'compelled
them to iron out differences' and fight jointly against
the State machinery. Earlier, both the groups had organized
an 'economic blockade' in Jharkhand between May 6 and 8,
2002.
The MCC and the CPI-ML (Party Unity) - which merged with
the PWG in 1998 - had long engaged in a bitter turf war
in several districts of Bihar and Jharkhand. In the last
five years, an estimated 300 persons from both the organisations
have reportedly been killed in internecine clashes. The
cementing over of differences between the two most powerful
Naxalite groups in India is part of a larger strategy aimed
at unification of Maoist movements across South Asia. Available
evidence suggests that the Naxalites, in collaboration with
Maoist insurgents in Nepal, are trying to create a 'compact
revolutionary zone', and plan to create conditions that
would allow them to declare the stretch of territory running
from Nepal to Andhra Pradesh as a 'liberated zone'.
The State response to this growing Left Wing has relied
heavily on police operations to neutralize the armed groups,
but this is clearly not working, particularly since systematic
and lethal attacks on SF personnel have undermined morale
and preparedness, especially in the ranks. The SF operations
suffer due to lack of adequate and appropriate equipment
- including basics such as automatic weapons, landmine detectors,
transport and communications; a proper intelligence network
at the grassroots level; and better protection to police
officers and personnel in the Naxalite affected areas. After
the lethal December 20 attack on the police convoy at Bitkilsoya,
angry survivors reportedly blamed the malfunctioning of
their SLRs for the high casualty figures as much as they
did the attacking MCC cadres. Regrettably, plans to modernize
the State police force and a proposal to network all 369
police stations in the State, remain 'pending'.
The State government had also announced a 'rehabilitation
policy' for Naxalites who were willing to give up arms and
'come overground'. Unfortunately, the response to the 'package'
announced in April 2001, has been very poor. The government
is now believed to be 'reviewing' its rehabilitation policy,
clearly conceding its failure to lure the Naxalites back
to the social mainstream.
The problem of Left Wing extremism is sustained largely
by the failure of the administrative machinery at the grassroots
level, and any effective policy to counter the increasing
sway of the Naxalites will have to take into account the
efficiency and effectiveness - or lack thereof - of institutions
of civil governance and the developmental machinery of the
State. Such a policy will also have to assess and neutralize
the dynamics of the underground economy of extortion and
terrorism and the parallel structures of 'governance' that
the extremists have installed in their areas of influence.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major conflicts
in South Asia
December 16-22, 2002
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Civilian
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorist
|
Total
|
INDIA
|
17
|
20
|
42
|
79
|
Assam
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
Jammu &
Kashmir
|
14
|
7
|
31
|
52
|
Left-wing
Extremism
|
3
|
13
|
4
|
20
|
Manipur
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
4
|
NEPAL
|
3
|
13
|
32
|
48
|
PAKISTAN
|
2
|
0
|
7
|
9
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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INDIA
13 police
personnel killed in MCC ambush in Jharkhand: 13 police personnel
were killed and 15 others injured during an ambush on their
convoy by Left-wing extremists - Naxalites - of the Maoist Communist
Centre (MCC) in the Saranda forests at Bitkilsoya in the State
of Jharkhand on December 20, 2002. Indian
Express, December 23, 2002.
Ruling PDP Legislator assassinated in Pampore, J&K: Abdul
Aziz Mir, a Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) belonging
to the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was assassinated
near Pampore town in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) by an unidentified
terrorist on December 20, 2002. Mir, hailing from Konibal, was
reportedly killed in the presence of nine security guards when
he was returning home after offering Friday prayers at the local
mosque. According to eyewitness accounts, a young assailant
is reported to have fired at the MLA when a number of people
drew close to him with certain demands and greetings. The assailant
escaped after the killing. Meanwhile, Sheikh Tajamul, identifying
himself as the spokesperson of a relatively less known terrorist
group, the 'Save Kashmir Movement', told a local news agency
over telephone that his organisation had carried out the assassination.
However, Superintendent of Police (SP), Awantipore, claimed
the killing was carried out by some local terrorists of the
Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM) who were projecting the name of 'Save
Kashmir Movement' to mislead the people and security forces.
Daily
Excelsior, December 21, 2002.
Naga insurgent leaders expected to arrive in India on December
27: Quoting government sources, media reports said on December
18, 2002, that the next round of Indo-Naga peace talks would
commence from December 28 in New Delhi. The National Socialist
Council of Nagaland - Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) leadership is expected
to reach India on December 27 and is likely to hold talks with
Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Deputy Premier L.K.
Advani. Sources said that Indian security agencies are in the
process of providing an Indian passport to the group's Chairman,
Isac Swu, and the Indian embassy in Oslo, Norway, will issue
the passport. Assam
Tribune, December 20, 2002.
Three persons sentenced to death in December 13, 2001, Parliament
attack case: A special court in Delhi on December 18, 2002,
sentenced to death three accused persons in the December 13,
2001, Parliament attack case. Special Judge S.N. Dhingra held
the three - Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) terrorists Mohammad Afzal
and Shaukat Hussain Guru, and suspended Delhi University lecturer
S.A.R. Geelani - guilty of various offences under the Prevention
of Terrorism Act (POTA), the Indian Penal Code (IPC), and the
Explosive Substances Act. The fourth accused, Navjot Sandhu,
alias Afsan Guru, convicted under section 123 of the IPC for
concealing information about 'war against the state', was sentenced
to five years of rigorous imprisonment and fined Rs 10,000.
The Special Judge rejected the leniency plea of the defence
counsel and said it was the 'rarest of rare' cases and the convicts
deserved the maximum punishment. JeM chief Maulana Masood Azhar,
the outfit's chief commander in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), Ghazi
Baba alias Abu Jehadi and Tariq Ahmed have been declared proclaimed
offenders. Indian
Express, December 19, 2002.

PAKISTAN
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi
chief Ramzi among seven persons killed in Karachi blast:
Seven persons were killed in an explosion at a house in the
Korangi area of Karachi on December 19, 2002. The chemical warehouse
in which the explosion occurred was reportedly a hideout of
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) chief Asif Ramzi, who is believed to
have been killed in the incident. Official sources disclosed
that the police found material that is used to manufacture explosives
in the debris. They also reportedly found a list of names titled,
'Wanted Terrorists', from the place containing names of police
officers, who had actively participated in operations against
sectarian and other terrorists. Asif Ramzi was wanted in a series
of sectarian terrorist incidents, as well as the recent parcel
bombing in some government offices in Karachi and the bomb blast
inside the Consulate of Macedonia. Dawn,
December 21, 2002.
Leading doctor among nine persons arrested in Lahore for
Al Qaeda links: The US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI),
with assistance from a local intelligence agency, arrested a
leading medical practitioner and eight members of his family
from their residence alongside GT Road in Manawan, Lahore, on
December 19, 2002, for their alleged links with the Al Qaeda
and Taliban. The arrested persons included Haji Ahmad Javed
Khawaja, a gastro-enterologist, who practiced medicine for 16
years in the United States and the Dominican Republic, his brother
who is a Canadian national, two other brothers, and Khawaja's
two sons, also American citizens. Official sources said the
FBI discovered Khawaja's links with the Al Qaeda by tracing
the Internet channels allegedly being used by him. He has been
charged with providing treatment and financial support to Al
Qaeda operatives and is alleged to have visited Kabul after
9/11. Meanwhile, the Punjab government, on December 20, released
four among the nine persons arrested on the direction of Chief
Minister Pervaiz Elahi. Jang,
December 21, 2002; Dawn,
December 20, 2002.
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The South
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terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare,
on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as
on related economic, political, and social issues, in
the South Asian region.
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and the
South
Asia Terrorism Portal.
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