SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 12, No. 26, December 30, 2013

INDIA

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Maharashtra: Maoists Hard-hit
Mrinal Kanta Das
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

Maharashtra consolidated its position further in the campaign against the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) through 2013, after the tentative gains it had secured through 2012. More substantive losses were inflicted on the Maoists in 2013, in comparison to other Maoist-affected States over the same period. In fact, in their own assessments the Maoists acknowledged that their movement in Maharashtra had "weakened".

The fatality figures alone tell much of the story. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 45 people were killed in the State in Left Wing Extremist (LWE) linked violence in 2013, including 10 civilians, seven Security Force (SF) personnel, and 28 Maoists, while 21 civilians, 14 SF personnel and five Maoists were killed in 2012.

Significantly, while civilian and SF fatalities fell to less than half between 2012 and 2013, Maoist fatalities have increased by an astonishing seven times. The Maoist fatality figure for 2013 is, in fact, the highest for any one year in Maharashtra. In terms of geographical spread, except for one civilian fatality in Gondia District, all other fatalities in 2013 were recorded in Gadchiroli District.

Maharashtra recorded seven major incidents (each resulting in three or more fatalities) in 2013, as against just one in 2012. The Maoists suffered heavily in five of the seven 2013 incidents. Common to these significant operational successes against the Maoists was the fact that the rebels were taken by complete surprise, a crucial departure from the experience of the past in Gadchiroli as well as most other theatres of Maoist violence. This point was driven further home by the fact that, in these operations, the Maoists were not even able to execute orderly withdrawals, as evidenced by the high number of bodies recovered. The Maoists do not generally leave behind the bodies of their fallen comrades. Moreover, SF casualties in these operations have been minimal, in sharp contrast to the ratio of fatalities in 2012.

Further, as a result of the growing strength of their intelligence network, the Gadchiroli Police were able to successfully execute a counter-ambush against a group of 50 to 60 Maoists, who were waiting to ambush Police search parties in the Hetalkasa Forest under the Malewada Police Station in Gadchiroli on May 19, 2013. After the encounter, the Police recovered the body of a Maoist and a small cache of arms and ammunition.

As indicated, the SFs managed to significantly cut down operational losses. Out of the seven SF fatalities recorded in 2013, three personnel were killed in a single Improvised Explosive Device (IED) incident on October 17. Due to the tremendous SF pressure, moreover, Maoist strikes against civilians also declined significantly, with just one major incident, on June 13, involving civilian fatalities, when Llyod Company’s Vice President, a subcontractor and a Police patil [village representative] accompanying them, were killed near Nender village in Etapalli tehsil in Gadchiroli. The Maoists carried out the killing purportedly to protest against the attempt to start mining in Surajagad and Damkodvadavi Hills in the Gatta area, despite ‘popular sentiment’ against mining in the area.

Other patterns of Maoist violence also registered a decline in 2013. In total, 12 exchange-of-fire incidents were reported between the SFs and the Maoists from Maharashtra in 2013, as against 22 in 2012. In one such incident, on February 11, 2013, the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) staved off a Maoist attack near Sirpur village in the jungle of Pendhri in Gadchiroli District. The 192 Battalion of CRPF was engaged in an area domination exercise from the evening of the previous day, when a group of Maoists, camping in the jungle, triggered a blast on spotting the SFs party.

The Maoists engineered only two explosions in 2013, as against one IED attack in 2012.

Three arson related incidents in 2013 were attributed to the Maoists, in comparison to seven such incidents in 2012. In the worst of these, on January 13, 2013, a group of around 40 Maoist cadres set ablaze 27 vehicles at a road construction site near Lekha (Menda) village on Godalvahi-Dhanora road in Gadchiroli District. They also set ablaze a Gram Panchayat building in Godalwahi village in Dhanora Division of Gadchiroli District on April 28, 2013.

One abduction case in Gondia District was registered against the Maoists, as against seven such cases in 2012.

Four bandh (shut down strike) calls were given by the Maoists over various issues in 2013, though they evoked a lukewarm response. The Maoists had imposed six bandhs in 2012.

Twenty-two Maoists were arrested in 2013 in comparison to 41 in 2012, the most significant being the arrest of a 'deputy commander' of the Kasansoor Dalam (armed squad), identified as Ramesh alias Kaju Gawde, during an anti-Maoist operation in Reknar village in the Etapalli tehsil (revenue unit) of Gadchiroli District and Chaitu Pada, who was arrested for involvement in the murder of the Vice-President of Lloyds Metals & Engineers and two others, on June 24, 2013. Other arrests that drew greater media attention included the apprehension of two activists of the Kabir Kala Manch (a Maoist 'cultural organisation') - Sheetal Sathe and Sachin Mali - on April 3, 2013, and the arrest of Prashant Rahi aka Prashant Sanglikar, an Uttarakhand-based journalist-turned-activist, on September 1, 2013. Further, the Gadchiroli Police’s decision to register cases against Prime Minister's Rural Development Fellow (PMRDF) Mahesh Raut and his friend Harshali Potdar from Mumbai, after two arrested Maoists revealed that the pair were travelling with them to meet top Maoist leaders, and the subsequent raid on the house of G.N. Saibaba, an assistant professor at Ramlal Anand College, Delhi University, in Delhi, generated much media controversy.

Thirty Maoist cadres surrendered in 2013, as against just eight in 2012. 28 Maoists  from different dalams in Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh border areas, surrendered before the Gadchiroli District Police, under 'Campaign Navjeevan' (New life). The Campaign was launched in December 2012. Meanwhile, statistics furnished by Gadchiroli Police indicate that 396 Maoists have 'returned to the mainstream' since 2005, when the Government's surrender policy was relaunched with fresh vigour. The list of surrenders, however, is devoid of names from the top Maoist leadership.

Explaining the turnaround, Maharashtra Additional Director-General of Police (ADGP) (Special Operations), Prem Kisan Jain, told the media, "We have reorganised the setup within the Department, in which all anti-Naxal operations, including intelligence, training and action, have been brought under one chain of command." Further, Jain claimed that increasing the duration of the stay of the forces in the forests to 3 to 5 days, instead of shorter durations, had helped them immensely in disrupting Maoist logistics: "We have not only managed to confine Maoists in their areas, but have also been able to penetrate into hitherto impregnable areas, which has put them on the defensive." Coordination among the State Police Force, the State special force (C-60) and Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs), also improved dramatically. Advanced training centres, manned by Army personnel, have been set up and more specialised equipment has been provided to the counter-insurgency (CI) troops. The "economical use of ammunition" has also helped the Police, with better firing skills and restraint in the use of ammunition during encounters. In the past, panicked and indiscriminate firing by SFs had often resulted in units running out of ammunition during an ambush or encounter.

In addition to operational improvement, there has been a visible transformation in the capacities and processes of intelligence gathering. While surrendered Maoists have provided crucial operational information, Police also appear to have significantly infiltrated Maoist ranks in Gadchiroli.

Nevertheless, on April 1, 2013, the Maharashtra Government once again included four tehsils  of Gondia District — Gondia, Goregaon, Tiroda and Amgaon — in the list of Maoist-affected areas. These areas had been removed from the list of Maoist-affected areas on February 4, 2013. Further, on March 6, 2013, the Maharashtra Government said that it could not be claimed that LWE activities in Gadchiroli District had ended until the movement comes to a complete halt.

On March 11, 2013, the Maharashtra State Home Department informed the State Legislature that it spent INR 2.91 billion for the construction of 10 fortified Police Stations in Maoist affected areas, and on the capital outlay for road transport. Further, on March 20, 2013, the State Government adopted a resolution to hike the salary and dearness allowance of Police personnel serving in Maoist affected areas, by 50 per cent. Meanwhile, the Maharashtra State Anti-Naxal Operations Unit now has a Special Propaganda Cell for countering the campaigns triggered by the Maoists.

On July 15, 2013, the State Government announced that the Maoist-affected Gadchiroli and Gondia Districts would soon get a 'special development authority' to curb red-tapism, and thereby expedite development. Further, Maharashtra Home Minister R.R. Patil underlined the urgent need of forming a District Development Authority for Gadchiroli, arguing that both the system and the CPI-Maoist constituted a great development challenge in Maoist-afflicted area.

Dramatic gains have clearly been registered in the anti-Maoist campaigns in Gadchiroli. Nevertheless, the Maoist capacity for revival must not be underestimated, as it often has been in the past. Far greater consolidation is necessary before the present gains can be thought to be irreversible.

SRI LANKA

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Moving On
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

The peace that was established with the defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in May 2009 prevailed uninterrupted through 2013. As in 2012, not a single terrorism-related incident was reported from the Island Nation. The last such fatality was recorded on October 2, 2009, when an unidentified gunman killed two Army soldiers and injured another at Paranthakadathan in Mannar District. Moreover, while several concerns remain to be addressed, the country made dramatic progress in terms of post-war reconstruction, and also witnessed some positives in terms of reconciliation.

Crucially, on September 21, 2013, amid heavy security historic elections were conducted in the five Districts of the Northern Province - Jaffna, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Mannar - for the first time since the establishment of the provincial council system in 1987. The Tamil National Alliance (TNA), the largest Tamil party in the country, secured a landslide victory, winning in all five Districts, securing 28 of the 36 seats for which elections were held. The TNA also secured two bonus seats on the basis of its percentage of votes in each District. Along with the Northern Provincial Council (NPC) elections, polls were also conducted on September 21, 2013, for the North Western Provincial Council (NWPC) and Central Provincial Council (CPC). Here, unsurprisingly, the United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) secured a convincing victory in both the Councils, securing 34 of 52 seats in the NWPC, and 36 of 58 seats in the CPC.

With the formation of the NPC the Mahinda Rajapaksa led UPFA Government fulfilled its promise of conducting elections in the Northern Province. On May 21, 2009, the Sri Lankan High Commissioner to India, C. R. Jaisinghe, had declared, "We will hold Provincial Council elections in the northern region." Again, on July 11, 2012, President Mahinda Rajapaksa had committed to elections for the Northern Provincial Council in ‘just over a year’, stating, “We want to hold elections in September 2013. We are working towards it [the elections] in a systematic manner.”

The Government also met its commitments towards resettlement of civilians and rehabilitation and reintegration of LTTE cadres. Highlighting post-war achievements, Mass Media and Information Minister Keheliya Rambukwella on August 28, 2013, emphasized that, during a short period of four years after the end of hostilities, approximately 300,000 displaced persons had been resettled. Meanwhile, only 232 surrendered LTTE cadres have been left in camps. When the three-decade-long war with the Tamil Tiger terrorists ended in May 2009, around 11,800 ex-LTTE cadres surrendered to the Security Forces (SFs). A large number of Tamils have also been enlisted by the SFs.

Further, in an attempt to instill confidence in Tamil civilians, 900 Tamil Police officers and 1,500 Sinhala Police officers fluent in the Tamil language, have been deployed to Police Stations in the Northern and Eastern Provinces in order to avoid miscommunications and delays in providing services due to the language barrier.

In another milestone, the 22^nd Commonwealth Heads of Governments Meeting (CHOGM) was held in Colombo from November 15-17, 2013, under the chairmanship of President Mahinda Rajapaksa. The meeting went ahead despite calls for a boycott by several nations on the grounds of Sri Lanka's poor human rights record. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India decided not to attend the meeting in view of the opposition by political parties in Tamil Nadu, as well as within a section of his Congress Party. He was, however, represented by Indian Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister David Cameron visited the Tamil dominated Jaffna District after attending the inaugural CHOGM meeting, and remarked, there, “Let me be clear, using our position in the Human Rights Council we will work with them and call for a credible international inquiry into alleged war crimes if the (Sri Lanka) Government fails to do so by March next year. There is no credible set up for such investigation and they have to set it up. I will fully back an international investigation.”

President Rajapaksa, however, gave little evidence of succumbing to any external pressures. Referring to India's decision to send the Foreign Minister in place of the PM, Rajapaksa stated, "The Foreign Minister is here. I am satisfied." Further, he reacted defiantly to Cameron's call for an inquiry into alleged human rights abuses, on the second day of the Summit, Rajapaksa declared, "People in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. British investigations into the Bloody Sunday took 40 years to emerge." He was referring to the Bloody Sunday, when 13 civilians were shot dead in Northern Ireland by the British Army in 1972.

Soon thereafter, the Department of Census and Statistics started a nationwide exercise on November 28, 2013, to assess the loss of human lives and damage to property in the final stages of the war against the LTTE rebels. The Director General of the Census and Statistics Department, D.C.A. Gunawardena, stated, on December 26, 2013, that the survey had been completed by December 20, and the report would be available in March 2014.

Despite moves, an atmosphere of mistrust persists. The foremost reason for this is the issue of political autonomy. On September 29, 2013, TNA Member of Parliament (MP) Suresh Premachandran, in a media interview, stated, “We feel that there must be a long-lasting resolution… What we want is some sort of autonomous state for the North and the East.”

President Mahinda Rajapaksa, however, reiterated his rejection of this notion on February 4, 2013, declaring, “It is not practical for this country to have different administrations based on ethnicity. The solution is to live together in this country with equal rights for all communities.” Not surprisingly, on June 18, 2013, a Bill was presented to Parliament to abolish the 13^th Amendment to the Constitution. The Bill is now with the Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC), formed on June 21, 2013. The main opposition United National Party (UNP), the Marxist Janatha Vimukti Peramuna, the TNA and the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), are no longer part of the PSC for varied reasons, making the PSC redundant.

Land and Police rights to Provincial Councils are another source of disquiet in the Island nation. On April 17, 2012, TNA MPs led by Rajavarothayam Sampanthan told Indian Parliamentarians that Tamils need effective power devolution similar to the Indian system. TNA MP Selvam Adaikkalanadan had observed, “Power devolution without power is of no use... We need police and land powers for the Provincial Councils like the States in India.”  On September 28, 2013, former Chief Minister of the Eastern Provincial Council, Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan alias Pillaiyan also said the NPC should be vested with Police and land powers.

On July 30, 2013, President Mahinda Rajapaksa responded by arguing that Police and land powers had not been implemented since the introduction of the Provincial Council system, and that the issue should be given special attention now. Further, the Supreme Court, in a September 26, 2013, ruling, stated that land powers in Sri Lanka were vested with the Central Government and not with the Provincial Councils.

There is also continued skepticism over the implementation of the much-hyped Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation Commission (LLRC) report submitted on November 15, 2011. On November 29, 2013, for instance, TNA leader R. Sampanthan, asserted that the Government was yet to present a political solution to the national problem as recommended by the LLRC, and under pressure from some of its allies, the Government had set up the PSC ostensibly to find a political solution, but with the real intention of further delaying the process.

The presence of Army is another bone of contention. While the TNA is demanding the removal of the Army from the North and East, the Government insists that the number of troops has already been reduced and a complete withdrawal is not feasible. President Rajapaksa thus countered, “Then, if the other Provincial Councils also asked me to withdraw their Army camps all over the country where can I have the Army?” According to Jaffna Security Forces Commander Major General Mahinda Hathurasinghe, the number of military personnel had been reduced from 26,400 in December 2009, when he took over as commander, to approximately 13,200.

Adding to tensions is the new Chief Minister of the Northern Province, C.V. Vigneswaran’s attitude towards Colombo. On December 21, 2013, Vigneswaran alleged,

The latest we hear is that a former LTTE military commander is being commissioned to restart an LTTE outfit subservient to the powers that be… Our lands are being grabbed. Our businesses are being grabbed. Our employment opportunities are being grabbed and to say it most mildly our war widows and women are definitely not safe. Why does the Government not enhance its Police presence in the North and reduce progressively its Army presence if it does not have a hidden agenda? These are questions which must be posed by reasonable ordinary humane Sinhalese in the South.

Vigneswaran stressed, further, that Tamil speaking people, whether Tamils or Muslims, are not against the Sinhalese, but are certainly against the 'Sinhalisation' of the North and East.

The remnants of LTTE, though miniscule, continue to pose a limited challenge. Through 2013, there were reports of the activities of cadres and sympathizers, within and outside Sri Lanka. In one incident in support of LTTE, Tamil activists in Tamil Nadu, India, assaulted a Sri Lankan Buddhist monk, identified as Bandara, at the Central Railway Station in Chennai, on March 18, 2013. Further, nine persons who were attempting to commemorate slain LTTE cadres on May 18, 2013, were arrested in Colombo. On September 5, 2013, a man, believed to be an LTTE supporter, committed self-immolation in front of the United Nation's Human Rights Committee building in Geneva, Switzerland. Again, eight persons were arrested on September 13, 2013, in the Kodikarmam area in Jaffna District on charges of having in their possession posters containing the picture of slain LTTE leader Vellupillai Parabhakaran. Police said this was the first time such posters had been found in the Northern Province since the war ended in 2009. Acknowledging LTTE’s surviving presence, President Mahinda Rajapaksa in another media interview on August 31, 2013, observed, "The LTTE (Tamil Tigers) sympathizer networks have been in this business for a long time. It was their big money-raiser. They are still doing it today."

Peace has certainly been established in Sri Lanka, and the capacities for disruption are, at worst, marginal. Nevertheless, sources of ethnic tension persist, even as much of the country's politics is framed in an ethnically polarized paradigm. It is imperative, for a lasting solution, for both Sinhala and Tamil to move beyond this confrontationist politics to forge a national destiny that can move beyond the memories of the years of bloodshed.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

Islamist Terrorism

INDIA

Assam

Jammu and Kashmir

Meghalaya

Nagaland

Left-wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)