SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 12, No. 4, July 29, 2013

BANGLADESH	INDIA	MYANMAR

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Emerging Threat
Sanchita Bhattacharya
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On June 27, 2013, two displaced persons (DPs) were killed and another six were wounded when Security Forces (SFs) fired to disperse a crowd that had gathered at a military base in Kyein Ni Pyin, a camp for DPs in the Pauktaw area of Myanmar's Rakhine State.

Again, on June 30, 2013, three persons were injured as rioters torched two houses in the coastal town of Thandwe in Rakhine State, during clashes between Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims.

Through 2012, Myanmar had witnessed clashes between Rohingya Muslims and Buddhists in Rakhine State, resulting in about 200 deaths and displacement of some 22,000 people.

These clashes and the resultant sectarian divide in Myanmar seems to have provided an opportunity to Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI, Pakistan’s external intelligence agency)-backed Islamist formations to consolidate their hold in Bangladesh making the Bangladesh-Myanmar Border their operational base.

Indeed, according to a July 21, 2013, report, India’s external intelligence agency, Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), has confirmed that the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and its front, Jama'at-ud-Dawa (JuD) are working in tandem to extend their footprints along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. While the JuD leader Hafiz Muhammad Saeed is personally leading the Myanmar campaign, espousing the cause of Rohingyas from various public platforms in Pakistan, his subordinates have been planning and undertaking visits to the Bangladesh-Myanmar border region. Intelligence sources indicate that the Pakistan-sourced support to the Rohingya’s is conditional on radicalized Rohingyas undertaking operations against India as well.

In mid-2012, the JuD established a new forum, Difa-e-Musalman Arakan-Burma (Defence of Muslims in Arakan – Myanmar) in order to mobilise supporters for a campaign against the ruling military junta of Myanmar. The JuD deputed a two-member team comprising JuD ‘spokesperson’ Nadeem Awari and a member of the Jama'at’s ‘publication wing’, Shahid Mehmood Rehmatullah, on August 10, 2012, for the task of forging links with senior representatives of Islamic institutions in Bangladesh and Myanmar.

In addition, Bangladesh agencies tracking one Shafiul Alam, a dual Pakistani-Nepalese passport holder, who travels frequently from Pakistan to Bangladesh, recently found that he and one Abdul Karim alias Mohammed Nur Alam, a Nepal-based Rohingya operative linked to hawala (illegal money transactions) and fake currency trafficking networks, had been trying to set up training camps along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border for Rohingya extremists, in consultation with the LeT ‘commander’ Ustad Abdul Hamid.

Assessing the Lashkar initiative, on February 27, 2013, Home Minister of Bangladesh Muhiuddin Khan Alamgir noted, “Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) is active in Bangladesh and law enforcement agencies tracked down their network and kept them under sharp security vigil. It is the moral and legal obligation of the Government to uproot them totally."

Moreover, it has also been reported that other terror outfits such as Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), the latter with known links to Pakistan-based terrorist formations, are  also trying to exploit the issue of the Rohingyas' ‘plight’ in Myanmar. In this effort, they are allying with NGOs led by Rohingyas, including the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation, to establish new bases in Bangladesh. Bangladeshi security agencies are examining whether Jammat-ul-Arakan, a new outfit comprising elements of JMB and extremist-minded Rohingya activists, is running militant camps in the Bandarban District along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border.

Meanwhile, links between Pakistani extremist formations and Rohingyas have also been uncovered by Bangladeshi security agencies. Bangladesh Police traced the funds in the bank account of one Maulana Mohammad Yunus, arrested in August 2012 from a madrasa (Islamic Seminary) in the Rau sub-district of Cox's Bazaar District, to Maulana Shabir Ali Ahmed, a Karachi-based, JeM-linked Bangladeshi national of Rohingya origin. Another madrasa operator, Abdur Rehman alias Imran alias Mustafa of Teknaf in Cox's Bazaar is suspected to have coordinated the arrival of Pakistan-trained Myanmarese mujahideen (holy warriors) at various locations of Cox's Bazaar at the end of 2012.

The expanding ISI footprint in the Rohingya belt of the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) was also exposed following the arrest of one Noor-ul-Amin from the Idgah madarasa in Cox’s Bazaar, on September 11, 2012. Amin had reportedly served as a militant ‘talent spotter’ and a recruiter of Rohingya cadres in the past. Confirming his association with the ISI during his interrogation, Amin disclosed that the ISI was involved in gun-running activity in the Rohingya refugee belt in CHT. According to estimates, there are about 26,000 documented refugees living in two camps in Cox’s Bazar District in CHT, close to the Myanmar border. Bangladesh Minister for Foreign Affairs Dipu Moni stated that 300,000 to 500,000 Myanmar refugees had entered Bangladesh illegally. ISI agents are also known to have close connections with the drug cartels in South-east Asia.

Evidently, the sectarian clashes in Myanmar have significant potential to impact adversely on the security situation in Bangladesh, India, and Myanmar. An unnamed senior Indian official observed, “Economic and social hardships faced by Rohingya refugees apart, the involvement of the minority group in arms smuggling, narcotics, safe sanctuaries for terror elements, including setting up of training camps, is going to be a major counter-terrorism challenge in the regional context.” Available intelligence inputs indicate that extremist activities of Rohingya Muslims were being funded mainly by sources in Saudi Arabia. The militant cadres among the Rohingyas were being trained by Pakistan-based terror groups and the weapons were being procured from Thailand.

At the official level, India and Myanmar have agreed to cooperate to prevent cross border movement of armed groups, share information on seizure of arms and check arms smuggling/drug trafficking. The agreement was reached during the (Joint Working Group) Meeting between Myanmar and India held at Bagan in Myanmar on June 19-20, 2013.

The cycle of violence in the border areas of Bangladesh and Myanmar has increased security vulnerabilities in the region. Accordingly, on May 18-19, 2013, a new sector and two battalions (Number 50 and 51) of Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) were set up to ensure better border management along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border, especially in Cox’s Bazar and Khagrachhari Districts. Another BGB sector has also been established in Bandarban District.

As the ISI and its terrorist proxies step in to fish in troubled waters, it is now imperative that Bangladesh, India and Myanmar act, at once and in concert, to ensure that a greater sagacity attends Myanmar’s policies towards the Rohingyas, and to destroy the emerging criminal and terrorist networks that seek to exploit the opportunities of the present disorders to create greater violence and instability in the region.

PAKISTAN

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Shias: Sectarian Targets
Anurag Tripathi
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

At least 60 persons were killed and 180 others were injured when two suicide bombers on motorcycles blew themselves up within a minute of each other outside an Imambargah (Shia place of worship) at Parachinar Bazaar (market) in the Kurram Agency of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on July 26, 2013. Ansarul Mujahideen (AM), a subsidiary network of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), claimed responsibility for the attacks. Abu Baseer, ‘spokesman of AM’, stated that Shia community members were the target, and claimed, “We have planned more similar attacks against the Shia community in Pakistan to seek revenge of (sic) the brutalities of Shia on Sunni Muslims in Syria and Iraq.”

Earlier, on July 15, 2013, at least four people belonging to the Shia community were killed when unidentified militants opened fire on a vehicle on Masjid Road in Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), a total of 410 Shias have been killed in Pakistan in 39 targeted attacks on Shias since January 1, 2013, (all data till July 28). Balochistan witnessed the highest number of such killings, at 230 in seven incidents. Six of the seven incidents in Balochistan, resulting in 229 fatalities, occurred in Quetta, while the neighbouring Bolan District witnessed one such incident, leading to one death. Balochistan was followed by Sindh, 67 in 20 incidents; Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), 51 in 10 incidents; FATA, 60 in one incident; and Punjab, two in one incident. Gilgit-Baltistan has, thus far recorded no such fatality in current year.

Prominent attacks targeting Shias in 2013 include the following:

June 30: At least 28 Shias were killed and 60 were injured when a suicide bomber blew himself up near the Abu Talib Imambargah in the Aliabad area of Hazara Town in Quetta.

June 21: At least 15 Shias were killed and 25 were injured in a suicide attack at an Imambargah in the Gulshan Colony of Peshawar, the provincial capital of KP.

March 3: At least 48 persons were killed and another 70 were injured in a huge explosion that ripped through a Shia-majority neighbourhood of Abbas town in Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh.

February 16: A remote-controlled bomb targeting Shias killed 84, including women and children, and wounded more than 200 in Quetta.

February 1: At least 28 Shias were killed and 46 were injured when a suicide bomber struck outside a mosque just after Friday prayers in the Pat Bazaar area of Hangu Town in KP.

January 10: At least 82 persons were killed and over 200 were injured in two separate bomb blasts at Alamdar Road in Quetta.

SATP data indicates that there have been at least 315 incidents of Shia killing in Pakistan between January 1, 2002, and July 26, 2013, which have claimed at least 2,074 lives.

The United State Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF), in its report on July 18, 2013, revealed that, in the preceding 18 months, 203 incidents of sectarian violence in Pakistan had resulted in 1,800 casualties, including 717 deaths. The report claimed that the Shia community was attacked 77 times, killing 635 members and injuring 834. These attacks included bomb blasts and 46 targeted shootings.

According to a report, titled, ‘Shia Genocide Database: A Detailed Account of Shia Killings in Pakistan from 1963 to 31 May 2013’, at least 21,470 Shias were killed in targeted attacks during this period. The report noted that, between January 1, 2002, and May 31, 2013, at least 3,229 Shias were killed. In the first five months of 2013, Pakistan recorded 403 Shia killings followed by 630 in 2012, 232 in 2011, 347 in 2010, 408 in 2009, 412 in 2008, 354 in 2007, 116 in 2006, 90 in 2005, 136 in 2004, 74 in 2003 and 27 in 2002.

There is clearly a broad trend of escalation in Shia killings in Pakistan.

According to the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) World Factbook, Shias constitutes nearly 10-15 per cent of the population of Pakistan, and are geographically spread across the country. The highest concentration is found in the Gilgit Baltistan Province, where they constitute a majority. The Kurram Agency of FATA is a Shia stronghold in the tribal belt. Similarly, all urban capitals, Lahore (Punjab Province), Karachi (Sindh Province), Peshawar and Quetta have a sizable Shia populations.

Sunni militant groups backed by the authorities at the helm have sustained a violent campaign against Shia Muslims, particularly since the time of former dictator General Zia-ul-Haq. Prominent anti-Shia groups include the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), the Ahl-e-Sunnat Wal Jama’at (ASWJ), earlier known as Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), and the TTP. Despite a Government ban on these terrorist organizations, they operate freely and brazenly. Sunni extremist formations have propagated their violent ideologies with impunity and in the most open manner possible. In June 2011, LeJ distributed pamphlets calling Shias wajib-ul-qatl (obligatory to be killed),

All Shias are wajib-ul-qatl. We will rid Pakistan of the unclean race. The real meaning of Pakistan is pure land and Shias have no right to live here. We have the fatwa (religious edict) and signatures of the Ulema (religious scholar) in which the Shias have been declared kaafir [infidel]... Our mission [in Pakistan] is the abolition of this impure sect, the Shias and the Shia-Hazaras, from every city, every village, every nook and corner of Pakistan...

Again, LeJ founder Malik Ishaq, in an interview with Reuters in October 2012, called Shias the “greatest infidels on earth”, and urged that “the state should declare Shias as non-Muslims on the basis of their beliefs”.

Despite these brazen threats, Governments, both at the Centre and in the Provinces, instead of initiating any corrective measures have taken steps that have worsened the rising graph of attack against the Shias.

Soon after the June 2011 LeJ threat, for instance, on July 14, 2011, Pakistan’s Supreme Court ordered the release of Malik Ishaq – the former operational chief of LeJ, who had been charged in 44 cases involving the killing of at least 70 people, mostly belonging to the Shia sect – on bail from Lahore’s Kot Lakhpat Jail. The Court stated that the prosecution had failed to produce sufficient evidence to support its charges. On February 22, 2013, Police again arrested Malik Ishaq in connection with sectarian attacks in Quetta that had killed nearly 200 people in 2013. However, he was again released on bail on May 23, 2013.

On June 21, 2103, Najam Sethi, former Punjab caretaker Chief Minister (CM), disclosed that at least 112 ASWJ-LeJ terrorists were released from Jail during his time as Punjab CM. He noted that no other person had as frequently promoted this unholy nexus, as the judiciary.

Moreover, reflecting the Governments apathy towards these atrocities, KP Information Minister and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leader, Shaukat Ali Yousafzai, referring to the June 21 attack, declared, “Dhamaka hua hai, koi qayamat nahin aae” [A blast has occurred; it is not the end of the world.]

On January 11, 2013, Ali Dayan Hasan, the head of Human Rights Watch (HRW) in Pakistan, observed:

As Shia community members continue to be slaughtered in cold blood, the callousness and indifference of authorities offers a damning indictment of the state, its military and security agencies. Pakistan’s tolerance for religious extremists is not just destroying lives and alienating entire communities, it is destroying Pakistani society across the board.

These developments give greater credence to the widely perceived notion that Shia minorities (among other minorities) across Pakistan are persecuted with the state’s connivance.

Other minorities also face persecution, as sectarian strife orchestrated by Sunni extremist formations continues to spread. According to the USCIRF report, between January 2013 and June 2013, there were a total of 108 attacks targeting other sects, resulting in 82 fatalities. The 22 Ahmadis were killed in these attacks; followed by 11 Christians; two Hindus; one Sikh; and 16 others.

The periodic escalation in Shia killings across Pakistan is a manifestation of the perpetual anarchy that has gripped the ‘land of the pure’, with no hope or refuge for the targeted community. Terrorist outfits like the LeJ and its allies, including TTP, backed by the continuous, if covert, support of the state as well as ideological endorsement from religious and power elites, has encouraged and sustained the massacre of the Shias.

INDIA

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Assam: KPLT: Renewed Strength
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On July 24, 2013, suspected Karbi People’s Liberation Tigers (KPLT) militants lobbed a grenade killing one person and injuring 21 near the Bokoliaghat Daily Market situated along National Highway (NH) 36 in Karbi Anglong District. According to the Karbi Anglong Police, ten persons sustained grievous injuries in the attack.

Earlier, on May 19, 2013, KPLT militants shot and killed a former cadre, Joysing Senar (35), at Lang Tor village under the Dokmoka Police Station in Karbi Anglong District. KPLT's 'Chairman', Bidisar Tungjang, further warned that any person caught maligning the organization's name would meet with a similar fate. Senar was allegedly running an extortion racket in the area in the name of KPLT.

KPLT was formed on January 8, 2011, by the Anti-Talks faction of Karbi Longri North Cachar Hills Liberation Front (KLNLF-AT) with the objective of carving an Autonomous Karbi State out of Assam. It is led by ‘chairman’ Bidisar Tungjang. Meanwhile, its parent formation, KLNLF’s peace talks with the Central Government have reached a deadlock over the demand of an autonomous Karbi State. After the Centre-State-United People’s Democratic Solideratity (UPDS) tripartite agreement the subsequent surrender by the UPDS, and the signing of a Suspension of Operation (SoO) Agreement with KLNLF, the KPLT was left with a mere 60-70 cadres. Nevertheless, it remains a major agent of violence in the Karbi Anglong District.

The District has already witnessed another four incidents of killing in 2013, resulting in four fatalities [three involving KPLT]. Two militants, one civilian and one Security Force (SF) trooper are among the dead. Significantly, no KPLT militant has been killed by SFs in the District since August 8, 2012, on which date two KPLT cadres were killed in two separate incidents.

The lone SF success in the District in 2013 came when a militant belonging to the nascent Rengma  Naga Hill Protection Force (RNHPF) – a Rengma Naga organisation established in 2012, was killed at Kaham Rengso Hill under Chowkihola Police Station in Karbi Anglong District, on May 7, 2013, when SFs raided a camp initially thought to belong to KPLT. The RNHPF seeks a regional council for the Rengma tribes living in the eastern Bokajan Sub-division of the District. The outfit's identity was established from some documents found in the camp.

In the month of June 2013, Rengma Nagas from over 200 households fled their villages, following an ultimatum served by the KLPT to Rengma village headmen, asking them to hand over all cadres of the NRHPF along with arms and ammunition on or before July 9, failing which KLPT would kill all Rengmas in Karbi Anglong. The situation was later peacefully resolved when KPLT urged Rengma Nagas to return, stressing “age-old cultural and social relation between the Karbi and Rengma communities”, in response to an appeal from different organisations for peace and tranquillity. The Police escorted the villagers back to their respective villages. However, KPLT cautioned the Rengmas not to ‘fall prey’ to the instigation of any ‘external forces’ for settling their own issues.

Worryingly, SFs have engaged KPLT cadres in three encounters, one of which led to the death of one SF trooper. The last recorded incident, on April 29, 2013, involved several second rung leaders of the KPLT, who escaped unhurt after a long gun-battle with SFs in Tikoklangso village in Karbi Anglong. Based on specific information, a counter insurgency force consisting of an Army and a Police unit entered the village, where a group of about six KPLT armed cadres with sophisticated weapons were camping to extort money from the area. KPLT cadres fled to a nearby forest after a brief exchange of fire.

On March 14, 2013, an encounter between SFs and KPLT militants took place at the Moujadar Basti area under Borpathar Police Station in Karbi Anglong District. No one was killed or arrested during the encounter.

In an ambush on January 24, 2013, KPLT killed a Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) trooper, Yambel Darlong, and injured Assam Police Havildar (Sergeant), Debnath Laskar. The incident occurred when KPLT militants fired at a joint State Police and Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) patrolling party at Engti Gaon in the Koilamati area under the Chokihola Police Station, Karbi Anglong.

The renewal of KPLT activities has occurred after August 12, 2012, when KPLT elected its new executive body, with Pangri Kronjang appointed as 'Commander-in-Chief' [C-in-C]; Klembang Lijang as 'Deputy C-in-C'; and Paklar Ejang as 'General and Publicity Secretary'; following vacancies created by the deaths of their leaders. In 2012, KPLT lost its top leaders in an encounter with SFs as well as infighting that resulted in the deaths of its then ‘General Secretary’, Nilip Enghi, and ‘Commander-in-chief’, Blain Hanse. Further, several KPLT leaders, including ‘deputy commander-in-chief’ Jiten Bey, ‘deputy commander-in-chief’ Davinson Rongpi, ‘general secretary’ Dilip Rongphar, ‘foreign secretary’ Maniram Rongpi and ‘joint secretary (publicity)’ Francess Milik, surrendered to the SFs on August 11, 2012.

Karbi Anglong, one of the two Hill Districts of Assam, with an area of 10,434 square kilometers, is situated in the central part of the State and is administered by a 30-member Karbi Anglong Autonomous Council, under the Sixth Schedule of the Indian Constitution. The District borders the Golaghat, Morigaon, Nagaon and Dima Hasao Districts of Assam, as well as the States of Meghalaya and Nagaland. Militancy in the District started in the 1980s, and peaked in 2005, when 108 fatalities were recorded. There was a sharp decline in 2010, with 10 fatalities, following a SoO with the principle Karbi outfits – KLNLF (2010) and UPDS (2002). A gradual rise in violence has, however, been recorded over the past years. In 2011, KPLT was involved in 12 of 14 recorded fatalities; in 2012, KPLT was liked to 14 of 17 fatalities; and in 2013, KPLT involvement has already been established in five of six incidents of violence (till July 28, 2013). Much of the violence since 2011 is attributed to the formation of KPLT.

KPLT has also expanded its area of operation to the neighbouring Goalpara and Nagaon Districts where two incidents have been recorded since the group’s formation. On February 15, 2013, two persons were injured and two vehicles damaged as suspected KPLT militants opened fire on NH-37 near Kaziranga National Park. The area falls under the Kohora Police outpost in Golaghat District, abutting Karbi Anglong. On December 26, 2012, suspected KPLT shot at and injured a businessman in Sariahjan Kathalguri near the Karbi Anglong-Golaghat inter-District border.

According to a May 30, 2013, report, some 20 families of Jargaon Village under Jakhalabandha Police Station in the Koliabar Sub-division of Nagaon District, fled their homes and took refuge in Sakmutia Tea Estate under the same District, following KPLT’s extortion drive. The villagers said KPLT cadres had recently come to their village and demanded an “annual tax” from the residents. “We were asked to pay INR 1,000 as annual tax. It varied in case of well- to-do families and those who owned commercial and private vehicles,” a villager stated.

KPLT has also been involved in other violent incidents, particularly extortion and abduction, which have contributed to a public outcry against the outfit. In one such incident, KPLT militant Bikrom Teron died after he and four others were allegedly thrashed by villagers for extortion in an interior village in the Karbi Anglong District in the night of January 23, 2013. Teron and four other KPLT cadres, Donsingh Tokbi, Mangalsingh Signer, Mansingh Rangpi and Rensingh Tokbi, were caught by villagers while they were going to Donghap under Dokmoka Police Station to extort money from the villagers.

On May 15, 2013, thousands of students lead by Karbi Student’s Union (KSU) came onto the streets, demanding stern action against KPLT for serving an extortion notice to the principal of a Christian missionary school in Dokmoka in the District. According to Police, KPLT served two extortion notices on May 7 and 11 to Bronson Sangma, principal of Church of Christ English School.

The renewed activities of the Karbi militant outfit contributed to the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) decision, on November 14, 2012 to order the continuation of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA), 1958, in the State, and the 'Disturbed Area' tag for another year, which had expired on November 3, 2012. The MHA cited activities of KPLT and the Anti Talks Faction of the United Liberation Front of Asom, now renamed ULFA-Independent (ULFA-I), as reasons for the renewal of the Act.

The forested and hilly terrain of Karbi Anglong District with an area of 10,434 Square Kilometres has a thin infrastructure which comprises of two Police Districts, 20 police Station & 10 Police Outposts. In a clear contrast, the State of Tripura, with an area almost equal of Karbi Anglong [10,492 square kilometres], has eight Police Districts, 67 Police Stations and 37 Police Outposts, and achieved a remarkable counter-Insurgency success. Regrettably, India has little institutional memory, and the security establishment continues to ignore the lessons of the past, agonizingly reinventing the wheel in each theatre of insurgency.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

Jammu and Kashmir

Assam

Arunachal Pradesh

Nagaland

Meghalaya

Left-wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)