SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 33, February 15, 2016

PAKISTAN

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Sindh: Fear's Frontrunner
Ambreen Agha
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On February 11, 2016, Karachi Special Investigation Unit (SIU) personnel shot dead two bank robbers, identified as Arsalan Iqbal and Dilawer aka Murad aka Tiger, in an encounter in Korangi Town in Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh. The Sindh Government had announced a reward of PKR 1 million for their arrest. Giving details of the robberies, Senior Superintendent of Police (SSP) Mohammed Farooq Awan of SIU Karachi disclosed that during the current year the duo had committed three bank robberies. They had looted PKR 1.2 million from the Allied Bank Branch in Korangi Town on January 8, 2016, the first robbery incident of the year. In the second incident on January 20, 2016, the two, along with over half a dozen other robbers, looted PKR 375,000 from JS Bank in Block-7, in the Gulistan-e-Jauhar area of Gulshan Town. The third case of robbery was reported on January 28, 2016, when nine armed robbers, including Iqbal and Dilawar, barged into JS Bank branch near Sohrab Goth in Gadap Town and looted PKR 4 million.

Terrorists have long been involved, in incidents of bank robbery in Karachi. In one such incident, SIU arrested Syed Islam alias Aziz Jan, the 'deputy chief' of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)-Punjab Chapter (also known as the Punjabi Taliban), on February 24, 2014, for his involvement in bank robberies. During interrogation, Islam confessed to robbing PKR 1.7 million from a private bank in Korangi No. 5 on January 7, 2014, and murdering two security guards in the process.

A total of 11 bank robberies were recorded in provincial capital Karachi through 2015.

On January 29, 2016, an encounter took place between TTP militants and Police in the Rizvia Society of Liaquatabad Town in Karachi District. Though no casualties were reported, Police arrested six TTP militants and also found an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) planted on a motorcycle. After being tipped off about the presence of terrorists, the Sindh Rangers conducted a raid at the hideout and, in the ensuing shootout, injured three terrorists who later succumbed to their injuries. The Rangers recovered weapons from the hideout.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Security Forces (SFs) have already killed 19 militants in 2016 (data till February 14). Karachi accounted for 310 militant fatalities through 2015; and another 318 in 2014.

There has been one SF fatality in 2016 (till February 14). SFs lost 58 of their personnel in 2015 as against 128 in 2014. Indeed, the success rate of the SFs against militants has improved considerably. While the ratio of SF to militants killed stood at 1:2 in 2014 it declined significantly to 1:5 in 2015.

Amidst the continuing violence in Karachi, the Federal Cabinet, on September 4, 2013, empowered the Sindh Rangers to lead ‘targeted action’ with the support of the Police, against criminals involved in the “four heinous crimes of target-killing, kidnapping, extortion and terrorism”. The operation began on September 5. According to a report released by the Pakistan Rangers in Sindh on December 29, 2015, at least 4,074 suspected criminals/terrorists had been arrested during 2,410 raids and operations through 2015. Of these, 2,198 were formally handed over to the Police for prosecution, including 887 terrorists, 268 target killers, 97 extortionists and 49 kidnappers.

Despite SFs registering these operational successes, Karachi remained the most violent District across Pakistan in terms of civilian fatalities, with 281 civilians killed in 2015. Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan, was the second worst-affected region, accounting for 66 civilian fatalities in 2015.     

According to SATP data, Sindh recorded 718 total fatalities, including 350 civilians, 310 militants and 58 SF personnel in 2015, ranking it the second worst region across Pakistan, after the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), which recorded a total of 1,882 fatalities, including 134 civilians, 106 SF personnel and 1,642 militants. Sindh recorded the highest number of civilian fatalities in 2015. Balochistan, with 247 civilian fatalities, was the second worst.

While Karachi accounted for an overwhelming proportion of terrorist violence in Sindh, other Districts were not entirely free of the menace. Thus, of the total of 718 terrorism-related fatalities in Sindh through 2015, at least 640 (82.05 per cent) were registered in Karachi alone, followed by 63 in Shikarpur District, six in Sukkur, two in Dadu, and one each in Ghotki, Jamshoro, Khairpur, Jacobabad, Thatta, Hyderabad and Shaheed Benazirabad. Fearing a spill-over of violence into other parts of the Province, Sindh Chief Minister Syed Qaim Ali Shah, had cautioned, on February 24, 2014, “Karachi-like terrorism must not hit other parts of Sindh. Terrorism should not make its way into the interior of Sindh with the intensity witnessed in Karachi.”

Significantly, the worst terrorist attack in the Province in 2015 took place in Shikarpur District. On January 30, 2015, at least 61 Shias were killed and more than 50 were injured in a bomb attack on Karbala-e-Moalla Imambargah (Shia place of commemoration) in the Lakhidar area of Shikarpur District. Ahmed Marwat, 'spokesman' of Jundullah, a splinter faction of TTP, which had pledged allegiance to Islamic State (IS, also known as Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, ISIS or Daesh) on November 12, 2014, had claimed responsibility for the attack.

In another sectarian attack, on October 23, 2015, at least 22 persons, including eight children, were killed and 40 were injured, in a suicide attack targeting a Muharram (Shia mourning for the martyrs of Karbala) procession in the Lashari area of Jacobabad District. Shikarpur and Jacobabad are now threatened by the spectre of sectarian violence. Before 2015, sectarian attacks were geographically limited to Karachi.

Sectarian fatalities in Sindh saw an increase of 90.69 per cent in 2015 over 2014, though the number of incidents declined. A total of 164 people were killed in 30 sectarian attacks in 2015, compared to 86 killed in 52 such incidents in 2014.

In addition to the Shikarpur incident, the second worst sectarian attack was reported in Karachi. On May 13, 2015, at least 45 Ismaili Shias were killed and another 24 were injured when unidentified militants opened fire on their bus in the Safora Chowrangi area near Dow Medical College in Gulshan-e-Iqbal Town. Two separate, though ideologically interlinked, terrorist outfits claimed responsibility for the attack. A group calling itself Khorasan Province Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack. Jundullah also claimed responsibility for the attack, declaring, “These killed people were Ismaili and we consider them kafir (non-Muslim). We had four attackers. In the coming days we will attack Ismailis, Shias and Christians.” Both groups have declared allegiance to the Islamic State (IS or Daesh).

The situation worsened in some measure because of the varying presence of a wide range of sectarian-terrorist outfits operating in collusion with each other across the Province. These prominently include TTP, LeJ, Sipah-e-Sahaba-Pakistan (SSP), Jundullah, Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), Sunni Tehreek (ST), Sipah-e-Muhammad Pakistan (SMP) and, more recently, the Khorasan Province Islamic State. While briefing the media on February 11, 2016, the Director General (DG) Inter Services Public Relations, Lieutenant General Asim Bajwa also disclosed that al Qaeda, and subsequently its subsidiary, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, in collusion with TTP, had also been involved in major terror incidents in Karachi since 2009.

The emergence of the IS in Sindh and its overlap with other domestic terrorist formations is worrying agencies. Aftab Sultan, Pakistan Intelligence Bureau (IB) Director General (DG), on February 10, 2016, informed the Senate Standing Committee (SSC) on Interior that IS was emerging as a threat in the country because several militant groups had soft corner for it. He named LeJ and SSP as examples.

Similarly, confirming the active presence of IS in Karachi, Ghulam Hyder Jamali, Inspector General of Police (IGP), Sindh, on October 12, 2015, noted that the group was operating in the Province and had established links with anti-Shia outfit LeJ. He further revealed that that IS and LeJ were involved in the May 13, 2015, Safoora Goth carnage on Ismaili Shias, that first demonstrated the sudden emergence of IS in Karachi. At least 43 Shias were killed in the incident.

The number of bomb attacks in the Province declined, though fatalities resulting from these attacks increased. Sindh recorded a total of 26 incidents of bomb blasts with 102 fatalities in 2015, compared to 72 such incidents with 61 fatalities in 2014. 

Targeted political killings also continued through 2015. At least 20 politicians, including 17 of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), two of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and one from the Awami National Party (ANP), were killed in 2015 alone. 46 politicians, including 30 from MQM, and eight each of ANP and PPP, were killed in targeted political killings in 2014. PPP, MQM and ANP have been the principal targets over the years, with at least 411 activists of these parties, including 238 of MQM, 107 of ANP, and 66 of PPP, killed since 2011.

Turf wars between two prominent criminal gangs, the Uzair Baloch-led People’s Amn Committee (PAC, People's Peace Committee) and the Ghaffar Zikri-led Lyari gang, and their multiple local wings, are another aspect of the endemic violence in Karachi. Despite being banned, these criminal formations continue to operate with the support of their political patrons. The PAC is alleged to be supported by PPP and the Zikri group operates in collusion with MQM. The two groups, residing and operating in Lyari Town, the oldest neighbourhood of Karachi, wreaked havoc in the country's commercial capital, with their internecine gang wars, rampaging extortion, widespread targeted political killings and the building of a drug economy. These have led to a spike in violence in Lyari and surrounding areas, making Lyari the most violent of all 18 Towns in Karachi. In 2015 Lyari recorded a total of 90 killings, including 23 civilians, two SF personnel and 65 militants. The second most violent area was Gulshan Town, recording a total of 78 fatalities, including 65 civilians (including the 43 killed in the Safoora Goth carnage), eight SF personnel and five militants.  

In a related development, the Sindh Rangers claimed to have arrested Uzair Baloch, leader of the Lyari gang and chief of the proscribed PAC, in a ‘targeted action’ on the outskirts of Karachi, on January 30, 2016. Rangers arrested Baloch while he was attempting to enter the city, according to a Press Release issued by the paramilitary force. The release also claimed the recovery of weapons from Baloch. His family members, however, claimed that Baloch was arrested by Interpol at the boarding lounge of Dubai airport on December 27, 2014, and the SFs, after keeping him in illegal detention since then, declared his arrest on December 27. Baloch reportedly fled Karachi soon after the launch of the ongoing ‘targeted action’ in Karachi on September 5, 2013. It was alleged that Uzair worked under the patronage of PPP. The Sindh Government banned PAC in April 2012 and announced a bounty of PKR two million on Uzair.

Evidently, despite a sharp decline in terrorism-related fatalities, the security situation in Sindh at large and Karachi in particular remain worrisome. On January 29, 2016, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif reiterated that the Karachi Operation would continue till its ‘logical conclusion’. Extending the assessment to the rest of Pakistan, he expressed Government's resolve, declaring, "War against terror will continue till elimination of last terrorist… Eliminating the menace of terrorism and ensuring a peaceful Pakistan for our future generations is the top most priority of PML-N Government and our successes against terrorism and achieving economic stability have created a new hope in people."

As a result of the cumulative impact of multiple patterns of violence, including Islamist terrorism, political killings and gang wars, Karachi features on the World's Deadliest Cities index, ranking 16 in a list of 64 cities from around the world that are at an “extreme risk” of terror attacks, according to Global Alerts Dashboard (GAD), an online mapping and data portal that logs and analyses every reported terrorism incident worldwide. The trend since 2011 , indicates that Karachi, the commercial capital of Pakistan, has become a bellwether of violence in the country.

INDIA

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Chhattisgarh: Remaining Challenges
Mrinal Kanta Das
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

A ‘commander’ of the Jagargunda ‘area committee’ of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), identified as Kunjam Linga (22), carrying a reward money of INR 100,000 on his head, was killed in an encounter with a joint team of Security Force (SF) personnel in the forests of Chintagufa Police Station area in the Sukma District on February 4, 2016.  In another incident, on the same day, an unidentified CPI-Maoist cadre was killed in an exchange of fire with personnel of the District Reserve Group (DRG) in the forested hills of Korli under the Mardum Police Station limits in the Bastar District.

On February 2, 2015, a CPI-Maoist cadre was killed in an encounter with SF personnel in the forests of Kesekodi under the Koyalibeda Police Station limits in the Kanker District. One SLR rifle and some magazines were recovered from the encounter site.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the Chhattisgarh has already recorded 29 fatalities in Maoist-related violence in 2016 (data till February 14). Significantly, at least 27 of these have been Maoists killed in SF action. On the other hand, the Maoists inflicted a single fatality on the SFs, though one civilian was killed by them on January 30, 2016. The body of the victim, identified as Hidma, was found lying in a pool of blood on the outskirts of his native village, Madiyaras Korra, in Sukma District. The villager had been abducted by the Maoists from a local market on January 28 for refusing to join their ranks.

According to the SATP database, a total of 777 Maoists have been killed in the State since 2005, as against 871 SF personnel, a ratio of 1:1.12 in favour of the rebels. Against this backdrop, the current reversal of fortunes is, indeed, remarkable. Significantly, 84 Maoists have already been arrested by SFs in the current year, in addition to the 221 arrested through 2015, and 414 in 2014. Another 150 Maoists have surrendered in the current year. 279 Maoists had surrendered in 2015 and 385 in 2014.

The SFs to Maoists killed ratio was in favour of SFs in 2015 as well, when 45 Maoist cadres were killed, as against 41 SF personnel. This was a huge improvement over 2014, when 55 SF personnel lost their lives, as against 33 Maoists. 2014 was, in fact, an aberration in an otherwise positive trend in favour of SFs since 2011. Crucially, to help SFs in their operations, an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) base was finally set up in Bhilai in Chhattisgarh on March 1, 2015. 

Significantly, the recent battering of the Maoists would not have been possible without the DRG. Dubbed the “sons of the soil” because its personnel are recruited from among local Koya (tribal) youth and surrendered Maoists, DRG attracted a lot of attention for its well executed strikes in Maoist ‘heartland’ areas including Abujhmad in Narayanpur District and south Sukma, the so called Maoist ‘capital’. DRG was raised over time in seven Districts of Bastar, first in Kanker and Narayanpur in 2008; and after a gap of five years in Bijapur and Bastar Districts in 2013.

Commenting on DRG’s recent successes, Inspector General of Police (IGP), Bastar Range, S. R. P. Kalluri observed, “They are emotionally attached to the region as they belong to this place. They are familiar with the culture, ethos and language of people. Having a bond with the tribals, they are better mentally-conditioned to handle them.”

According to media reports, DRG carried out 644 anti-Maoist operations in 2015, both individually and in coordination with other State Forces. In 2016, so far, DRG has executed 144 operations with one SF casualty.

Though the SFs had a slight upper hand against the Maoists through 2015, the State accounted for a higher number of civilian killings. 2015 saw 34 civilians killed in Chhattisgarh, as against 25 in 2014, an increase of 36 per cent. The State also recorded the highest number of civilian deaths among all Maoist-affected States in the country in 2015, followed by Odisha at 20. Chhattisgarh was up at the first position in civilian fatalities for the first time since 2013 when, the State, along with Jharkhand, recorded 48 civilian deaths each in Maoist violence. Civilian fatalities in Jharkhand were down to 16 in 2015.

Again, in terms of overall fatalities, Chhattisgarh secured the ‘first position’ in 2015, with 120 fatalities, including 34 civilians, 41 SF personnel and 45 Maoists. Jharkhand, with 58 fatalities, including 16 civilians, five SF personnel and 37 Maoists, stood a distant second. Total fatalities in Chhattisgarh through 2014 were 113, including 25 civilians, 55 SF personnel and 33 Maoists.

Moreover, Chhattisgarh alone accounted for 47.80 per cent of total Maoist-related fatalities across the country. 251 persons were killed across India in Maoist related incidents in 2015, of which 120 were in Chhattisgarh. Out of a total of 93 civilians killed across India in such violence, 34 were reported from Chhattisgarh (36.55 per cent); and out of 57 SF fatalities across India 41 (71 per cent) were reported from Chhattisgarh. It is clear that an overwhelming proportion of Maoist linked violence is located in Chhattisgarh and the State remains the nerve centre of the Maoist movement .

Among the Maoist afflicted regions of the country Chhattisgarh’s Bastar Division continues to be the most violent. Of the 14 major incidents in 2015 (each resulting in three or more fatalities) eight were reported from this region alone. Further, three Districts of Bastar – Sukma, Bijapur and Dantewada – have contributed more than 75 per cent of all incidents of killing in the State since 2012.

Among other patterns of violence in Chhattisgarh, the Maoists orchestrated 33 incidents of Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blasts, as against five such incidents in 2014; 17 abduction incidents, including two panchayat (village level self government institution) members and eight Police personnel, against one such incident in 2014; 18 arson incidents in 2015 against four such incidents in 2014; and 52 exchange of fire incidents in 2015, against 56 such incidents in 2014.

Though Maoist violence has seen tremendous decline in the State in particular and India at large, in terms of fatalities , the Maoists continue to exercise significant influence. Indeed, on September 27, 2015, the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) Director General (DG) Prakash Mishra asserted that the Maoists' writ still runs across large swathes of territory in south Chhattisgarh, posing the "biggest challenge" for SFs deployed for anti-Maoist operations: "South Chhattisgarh continues to pose the biggest challenge for Security Forces where almost 11,000 square kilometres has no presence of Security Forces, which gives Maoists the liberty to unleash their free reign (sic). However, it is only a matter of time before the void is filled."

As recent as on February 11, 2016, the Maoists detonated five serial IED blasts and fired indiscriminately at a team of the Chhattisgarh Armed Force (CAF) in Bijapur District, though no one was injured in the incident. On February 12, 2016, the Maoists orchestrated an IED blast in which a CRPF trooper was injured in Bijapur District.  Earlier, on February 1, two Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) personnel were injured in an IED explosion triggered by the Maoists in Kanker District.

Amidst this simmering violence, Chhattisgarh Chief Minister (CM) Raman Singh complained to Union Home Minister (UHM) Rajnath Singh that there is "no cooperation" from the Telangana Government in the fight against the Maoists in the Bastar region. Officials disclosed that Raman Singh also described Odisha's cooperation as ‘moderate’, while he praised "active participation" by Maharashtra. The Chief Minister also had a host of complaints against the Information and Broadcasting Ministry, the Road Transport and Highways Ministry, the Telecom Department and the Environment Ministry. He argued that there had been "no progress" in increasing the capacity and reach of radio networks in Bastar — even the Prime Minister’s ‘Mann ki Baat’ programme hardly reached the remote areas of Bastar. The Chief Minister also complained of "slow progress" in the installation of mobile towers, especially in Sukma District near CRPF camps, and asked for supply of more helicopters and UAVs by the Centre.

Anti-Maoist Operations in Chhattisgarh are presently delicately balanced. Effective coordination with neighbouring States is imperative if the Maoist threat is to be neutralized, even as the support and cooperation of the Centre remains decisive. While the Maoists have been immensely weakened, K. Vijay Kumar, the Special Security Adviser of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) on March 11, 2015, rightly noted, "This is a sign that two-third violence has come down. But that does not mean that they (Maoists) are incapable of causing hiccups and giving surprises." The Maoists are in no mood to relent, and their capacity to bounce back has been repeatedly demonstrated in the past. Current state successes create opportunities for consolidation, but if these are neglected due to the fractious relations between States and jurisdictional tensions, this would provide the necessary space for Maoist survival, if not a revival.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

Bangladesh

Left Wing Extremists

INDIA

Jammu and Kashmir

Assam

Manipur

Meghalaya

Left-Wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Odisha

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

Islamabad

KP

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)