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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 8, No. 18, November 9, 2009
Data and assessments
from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence
Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal |
South
Waziristan: Blind Fury
Kanchan Lakshman
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management;
Assistant Editor, Faultlines: Writings on Conflict
& Resolution
"We
are prepared for a long war"
–
Azam Tariq, Taliban
spokesman, November 3, 2009
|
The Pakistan
Army is reported to have wound up the first phase of
Operation Rah-e-Nijat (Path to Salvation) this
past weekend, having captured all major towns and villages
in the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) stronghold of
South Waziristan. According to the military’s Inter-Services
Public Relations (ISPR), 458 militants have been killed
(till November 7) since the offensive began on October
17, 2009. 42 soldiers, including officers, have lost
their lives and 142 soldiers were wounded in the fighting,
the ISPR chief, Major General Athar Abbas, said in an
interview with Radio Pakistan on November 6.
According to the military, the second phase of the operation
will focus, among other aspects, on hamlets and smaller
outposts controlled by the TTP.
Approximately
30,000 troops, assisted by military jets and helicopter
gunships, have been deployed in the TTP stronghold and
have moved in from three sides – "from Razmak in
North Waziristan towards Makeen in South Waziristan,
from Wana and Shakai towards Serwakai tehsil [revenue
unit] on the way to Kaniguram, and from Jandola to Spinkai
Raghzai, Kotki and Sararogha." On November 3, the
Pakistan Army took control of Sararogha, the stronghold
of the Hakeemullah Mehsud-led TTP. The capture of Sararogha
adds to the significance of securing Kotkai, the home
town of TTP chief Hakeemullah Mehsud and his trainer
of suicide bombers, Qari Hussain, on October 24. Adding
to its significance, Sararogha was where the TTP Shura
(executive council) met to deliberate strategy.
The political administration has claimed that Army troops
were in control of major parts of Sararogha and Ladha,
while they were moving to consolidate positions in Makeen
town, described as the nerve centre of the Taliban in
South Waziristan. The rapid pace with which the military
has claimed capture of major towns and villages, including
Sherwangi, Kotkai, Kaniguram and Sararogha, and locations
such as Tarkona Narai, have fuelled much doubt and skepticism.
The truth
is likely far from the spin Islamabad is sending out
to the world. Local and official sources, The News
reported on November 8, 2009, remarked that there
was little or no resistance from the militants, as all
the armed men had left the area well in advance, since
the campaign had been well advertised before its commencement.
At worst, there was some fighting in a few places. Crucially,
not a single important TTP ‘commander’ or foreign militant
has been killed or arrested, since the launch of operations
on October 17. The death toll of militants claimed by
the ISPR in its daily statements is pushing 500, but
the bodies of the slain men haven’t been shown to the
media, The News added. Irfan Burki and Daud Khattak
have reported that the whereabouts of TTP leaders, including
Hakeemullah Mehsud, Qari Hussain and Waliur Rahman aren’t
known, and it is believed they have escaped to some
new hideouts. Sources suggest that Waliur Rahman, in
his capacity as the head of the TTP South Waziristan
chapter, is still holed up somewhere in the Mehsud tribal
territory. As in Swat, "where Taliban head Maulana
Fazlullah is still untraceable, the situation has taken
a familiar turn in South Waziristan as all the top commanders
fled."
Current
counter-insurgency operations in South Waziristan are,
consequently, unlikely to yield desired results, given
the experience in the FATA in the past and in Swat earlier
in 2009, and can be expected only to disperse the militants
into other areas across Pakistan. The neutralisation
of the Taliban-al
Qaeda combine is, moreover, far
from being a desired objective of these operations.
In fact, never has any militant group, be it
the sectarian variant, the ones being used by Pakistan
in its proxy war against India, or others like the Taliban
and al Qaeda allies, been neutralized by the state.
Momentarily,
these operations could relieve some pressure on adjacent
geographical locations. For instance, there is, according
to figures for October 2009, less pressure in the Bannu
District of NWFP,
located next to Sararogha. The eventual success of the
operation in South Waziristan would also depend on the
state’s capacity to prevent any further expansion of
the conflict, especially the augmenting attacks in urban
areas. For Operation Rah-e-Nijat to be strategically
meaningful, the military will have to engage with the
TTP and al Qaeda allies not only in South Waziristan
but also in North Waziristan, the Khyber, Kurram, Orakzai,
Bajaur and Mohmand Agencies, and elsewhere in FATA.
In addition, Pakistan’s Armed Forces will have to fight
the fleeing militants in the adjoining Swat Valley and
Malakand Division of the NWFP, which is still to stabilize,
despite the largely disastrous military operations in
that region earlier in the year. The effectiveness of
military operations in South Waziristan will be negligible
if the Army allows the TTP cadre to disperse across
Pakistan or flee across the Durand Line, to regroup
on Afghan territory. All of this implies a commitment
and concentration of troops that the Federal Government
simply cannot currently secure, given the multiple insurgencies
raging across the country.
While
the operations in South Waziristan have already led
to more than 500 fatalities, the whole of FATA continues
to remain a conflict zone with augmenting casualties.
4,185 persons, including 3,318 militants and 582 civilians,
have died so far in 2009 (till November 7), a substantial
increase over the fatality figure for the whole of 2008,
which stood at 3,067. The writ of the state, always
fragile in FATA, has now vanished. Levels of violence
have, in fact, risen continuously over the years.
Annual
Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in FATA, 2005- 2009
Year
|
Civilians
|
SF
Personnel
|
Militant
|
Total
|
Injured
|
Incidents
|
2009*
|
582
|
285
|
3318
|
4185
|
1432
|
3005
|
2008
|
1116
|
242
|
1709
|
3067
|
1315
|
1154
|
2007
|
424
|
243
|
1014
|
1681
|
NA
|
NA
|
2006
|
109
|
144
|
337
|
590
|
NA
|
248
|
2005
|
92
|
35
|
158
|
285
|
NA
|
165
|
Source:
South Asia Terrorism Portal
* Data till November 7, 2009
Fatalities
are bound to be much higher than the numbers available,
and the categories are certainly suspect, since independent
and open source reportage from FATA operates under severe
restrictions.
The intensive
strafing and limited ground operations that comprise
Operation Rah-e-Nijat have, of course, led to
some setbacks for the Taliban. The TTP chief Hakeemullah
Mehsud has, however, urged his cadres to endure the
military onslaught, warning them in an intercepted message
obtained on November 5 that "cowards will go to
hell". "Remember this is the commandment of
God that once fighting starts with the enemy, you cannot
leave the battlefield without permission from your commander,
and don’t look for excuses to run away from the fighting,"
Hakeemullah told his fighters in a speech on November
3, broadcast over a wireless radio network. Of those,
who do run away, he warned, "Such people will go
to hell… We are in Jihad and we should not pay heed
to the whispers of Satan. We should sacrifice our lives
for Islam so that we can feel pride on the Day of Judgment."
There
are obvious indications that the lack of resistance
by the Taliban is tactical. TTP spokesman Azam Tariq
declared, on November 3, "We are prepared for a long
war. The areas we are withdrawing from, and the ones
the Army is claiming to have won, are being vacated
by us as part of a strategy. The strategy is to lure
the army into a trap, and then fight a long war."
Rather
than countering the troops, TTP cadres have withdrawn
into safe havens in the mountainous terrain and the
urban expanse. Sources indicate that key TTP leaders
have re-located to other areas in FATA, to Balochistan,
to Karachi, to south Punjab and other locations across
Pakistan, where there is currently less pressure from
the security agencies. Officials at the Army’s General
Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi are reportedly surprised
that the militants left the area so easily. The Army
is, of course, aware that the fleeing militants are
retreating to other locations, including the neighbouring
Orakzai, Kurram, Khyber and North Waziristan agencies,
to survive, regroup and prepare future attacks.
While
the military establishment and Interior Ministry had
been hyping the military operations in South Waziristan
months before their actual launch, entirely neutralizing
any element of surprise, two factors may have eventually
forced GHQ to finally hit out. The recent surge of terrorist
violence in urban areas, including the attack on GHQ
itself, at Rawalpindi, as well as on state installations
in Lahore, Islamabad, Peshawar and Kohat, which killed
more than 200 people, force the Army’s hand to launch
an offensive in South Waziristan. In addition, the approaching
winter also "prompted the military to begin the
onslaught and try to finish it or achieve most of its
objectives before the snow starts falling in the mountains
of Makeen, Ladha, Kaniguram, Badar, Srarogha, Kotki
and other militant strongholds."
The military
action has, so far, only targeted the parts of South
Waziristan which are dominated by the Mehsud tribe.
A report from Dera Ismail Khan on October 20 noted that
the Pakistan Army had struck deals to keep two powerful
tribal chiefs — Mulla Nazir and Hafiz Gul Bahadur —
from joining the battle against the Government. Under
the terms agreed upon about three weeks earlier, Mulla
Nazir and Hafiz Gul Bahadur will stay out of the current
fight in parts of South Waziristan and will also allow
the Army to "move through their own lands unimpeded,
giving the military additional fronts from which to
attack the Taliban. In exchange, the Army will ease
patrols and bombings in the lands controlled by the
two warlords, two Pakistani intelligence officials based
in the region said."
The battle
for South Waziristan and, if possible, to clear the
area of the Taliban-al Qaeda presence, is going to be
long and certainly a lot more difficult and complicated
than the military campaign in Swat. Past attempts to
establish Islamabad’s writ in the region have proven
disastrous. For the record, there have been three failed
military operations against the Taliban in the region
between 2005 to 2008. On at least one occasion, the
military’s failure to defeat the then Taliban chief
Baitullah Mehsud resulted in the capture of around 300
soldiers by the Taliban, and forced the Government and
the military to make peace deals with him in February
2005.
Much
is at stake for Pakistan in the fight against the TTP,
but there is nothing about Islamabad’s strategy and,
more importantly, intent, that allows for even a modicum
of optimism.
|
Tripura:
Unnoticed Consolidation
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
The dividends of a remarkable
counter-insurgency success continue to accumulate in the
northeastern State of Tripura, even as some of the other
States in the region continue to teeter on the brink of
chaos. The year 2009 saw a further and drastic decline
in insurgency-related activity, with only one fatality
thus far, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal
(SATP)
database, as compared to 17 in 2008. There have been only
47 militancy-related incidents in year 2009, less than
half of what was recorded in 2008. This is, indeed, a
dramatic recovery from the three-digit annual fatalities
of the 2001-2004 period, and even the significant double-digit
fatalities of the subsequent years.
Militancy-related
fatalities in Tripura, 2001-2009
|
Incidents
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force personnel
|
Militants
|
Total
|
2001
|
370
|
237
|
36
|
30
|
303
|
2002
|
292
|
150
|
46
|
22
|
218
|
2003
|
394
|
207
|
39
|
50
|
296
|
2004
|
212
|
67
|
46
|
51
|
164
|
2005
|
115
|
28
|
11
|
21
|
60
|
2006
|
87
|
14
|
14
|
22
|
50
|
2007
|
94
|
14
|
06
|
19
|
39
|
2008
|
116
|
7
|
4
|
17
|
28
|
2009
|
47
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Source:
Data 2000-2007: Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA),
Government of India
2008-2009: South Asia Terrorism Portal
During
2009, incidents were reported from all of Tripura’s four
Districts in 2008. While the West District, in which capital
Agartala is located, was the worst affected, with 18 militancy-related
incidents, Dhalai, North and South Districts accounted
for 11, 11 and 5 incidents, respectively. The single militant
fatality occurred in the Haripara area under the Manikpur
Police Station in Dhalai District on June 26, 2009.
Replying
to questions raised by the opposition Members of the Legislative
Assembly, Chief Minister Manik Sarkar said, on March 12,
2009, that, over the last three years, as many as 871
militants belonging to the All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF),
National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT)
and Borok National Council of Tripura (BNCT) had surrendered,
of whom 367 deposited arms and ammunition. The Chief Minister
also disclosed that approximately 180 to 200 NLFT militants
and 80 to 90 ATTF cadres were still underground. He added,
further, that the reduction of militancy could very well
be gauged from the fact that while in 2007 there 133 attacks,
in 2008 these came down to 80.
According
to the SATP database, a total of 215 militants
surrendered in Tripura in 2009, including 119 from the
BNCT, 53 from the NLFT, 41 from the ATTF and two from
unidentified militant outfits. On February 14, 2009, 118
BNCT militants deserted their hideouts in Bangladesh and
surrendered before the Police at Chawmanu Police Station
in the Dhalai District. They also deposited a cache of
arms and ammunition, including AK-56 rifles, pistols,
Self Loading Rifles (SLRs) and grenades. Investigations
revealed that the militants, led by Pabanjoy Reang, had
fled Bangladesh due to a serious shortage of food and
basic amenities at their camps. The militants disclosed
that they had found it increasingly difficult to move
freely in Bangladesh after the formation of the Awami
League Government in January 2009.
Among the
notable surrenders in 2009 were:
January
5: Two top ATTF ‘commanders’, identified as 'captain'
Michael and 'lieutenant' Royal Debbarma, and their wives,
surrendered before the Sub-Divisional Police Officer of
Jirania in West Tripura District. Both militants carried
cash rewards of INR 250,000 each and had red corner notices
issued against them by the Interpol. Their wives were
also ATTF cadres. "Our records say that they had perpetrated
savageries on people by massacring 26 civilians at Kalyanpur
in December 1996, 19 at Panchabati in November 1999, 21
at Simna Colony in May 2003 and 32 people in simultaneous
attacks on Kamal Nagar and Bara Lunga villages under Teliamura
subdivision in 2003, besides many others," Deputy Inspector
General (Operations), Nepal Das, revealed.
January
10: 22 NLFT cadres and two from the ATTF surrendered before
Security Forces (SFs) in the West District after fleeing
from their base camps in Bangladesh. A food crisis in
the Bangladesh camps and non-payment of ‘dues’ to the
rank and file, were given as reasons for the surrender.
The NLFT cadres deposited three revolvers, two Chinese
grenades, live cartridges and some documents, while the
ATTF militants surrendered a Japanese wireless set.
January
11: Six NLFT cadres surrendered at the headquarters of
Assam Rifles in capital Agartala along with one SLR, two
rifles and one revolver with live cartridges.
August
10: Nine ATTF militants, including four women, surrendered
before the SFs in the Khowai town of West District after
fleeing from their Satchari camp in the Sylhet District
of Bangladesh. They also deposited a cache of arms and
ammunition, including AK series rifles, one mortar and
foreign made ammunition.
August
18: Five NLFT militants surrendered before Assam Rifles
officials in three separate incidents in the South District.
September
14: Four NLFT militants surrendered at three separate
places in the Dhalai District.
September
17: At least six militants, including a woman, surrendered
before the SFs in two separate places in West District.
The continuous
stream of surrenders and the sense of entitlement the
scheme has generated in surrendered cadres over the years,
has led to some administrative problems, with surrendered
militants complaining about delays in their promised resettlement.
Surrendered militants have alleged that they have not
been compensated and consequently threatened to pick up
the gun again. On October 8, 2009, surrendered militants
of the ATTF and the Tribal Liberation Army (TLA) threatened
to launch a 72-hour hunger strike from October 12, after
they failed to get proper rehabilitation. Sailen Kumar
Reang, General Secretary of the surrendered ATTF militants,
and Padhya Debbarma, the TLA General Secretary, informed
Chief Minister Manik Sarkar of their agitation plans.
They disclosed that over 100 surrendered militants were
fully prepared to carry on the hunger strike if the State
Government failed to take any meaningful steps to address
their grievances. Both groups had been demanding allotment
of residential quarters at the new Kunjaban Township,
an upmarket area in capital Agartala, and a stipend of
INR 4,000 per month until Government employment is provided.
However, no subsequent action was taken by the surrendered
militants on the hunger strike.
Among the
47 militancy-related incidents reported in 2009, seven
involved arrests, in which 35 militants of different outfits
were apprehended, seven of the NLFT, 11 of the ATTF, 7
of the People’s United Liberation Front (PULF)
of Manipur, five National Socialist Council of Nagaland
– Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM)
militants from Nagaland, three Bru National Liberration
Front (BNLF) militants and two BNCT militants.
The NLFT
was involved in 22 incidents in 2009, and, after two decades
of existence, appears to be on its last lap, with large
scale surrenders of its cadres. According to information
gathered from surrendered militants of the group, almost
all of the 23 camps run by the NLFT in the Chittagong
Hill Tracts of Bangladesh have been closed down, with
leaders, including its chief Biswamohan Debbarma, now
staying in posh flats in Chittagong town and Dhaka. The
militants got into trouble shortly after the new Bangladesh
Government headed by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed
assumed power and initiated some action to curb the Northeast
militants. Reports indicate that the NLFT was unable to
secure official patronage within Bangladesh and their
earlier freedom of movement was substantially curtailed,
even as facilities available in the camps dried up, rapidly
demoralizing cadres.
At peak,
the NLFT had more than 800 cadres, but current strength,
according to official sources, has been whittled down
to "two dozen". Realising that growing marginalisation
was clouding their future, the NLFT leadership, still
in Bangladesh, has reportedly started a fresh recruitment
drive in an attempt to launch a new offensive in the run-up
to the Autonomous District Council elections slated for
April 2010. Sources in the Special Branch (intelligence
wing) of the Tripura Police indicate that, as the first
step towards strengthening the organisation, the NLFT
recruited 40 tribal youth and sent them to the Chittagong
Hill Tracts of Bangladesh for training in guerrilla warfare.
The sources said that, in October 2009, this group, hailing
from poor households in the Sadar, Khowai, Gandacherra,
Amarpur and Kanchanpur sub-divisions, had crossed over
to the Chittagong Hill Tracts through the hilly and unfenced
eastern border of Tripura, in six clusters. Utpal Debbarma,
an unemployed tribal engineer, who had passed out of Tripura
Engineering College and joined the NLFT after trouble
with the Police in 2001, was leading the recruitment drive.
The ruling
Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), the major constituent
of the ruling Left Front in Tripura, has accused the regional
Indigenous Nationalist Party of Tripura (INPT) of working
as an "overground front" for the banned militants.
The CPI-M spokesman, Gautam Das, stated on November 1,
2009: "The NLFT and the ATTF are aided and abetted
by the leaders of the regional parties, who hope to use
them in elections against the Left Front." Das alleged
that the INPT leaders’ recent visit to Delhi had been
sponsored by the NLFT. Das claimed, further, "The
INPT leaders are trying to blunt the edge of Security
Forces’ operations by making false allegations, so that
the NLFT can launch fresh offensive before the Autonomous
District Council polls to rig the elections as they did
in the April 2000 polls but they will not succeed."
Addressing
the Chief Ministers' Conference on Internal Security at
New Delhi on August 18, 2009, Tripura Chief Minister Manik
Sarkar had said that insurgent groups had been using Bangladesh
as a safe haven to carry out militant activities in the
Northeast: "We have been giving definite information about
the existence of terror infrastructure in Bangladesh,
details of cross border movement of these groups and their
training with the ISI [Inter-Services Intelligence]… Sealing
of the border effectively is of prime importance to prevent
cross border movement of insurgents. Arrangements like
flood lighting, speedy completion of barbed wire fencing
and strengthening of BSF [Border Security Force] along
the border should be accorded highest priority." Sarkar,
who also holds the Home Minister’s portfolio, has demanded
increasing of the strength of the Border Security Force
for effective management of the 856-kilometre porous border
with Bangladesh. "For effective guarding of the borders,
there is a need to set up additional 40 border outposts
in Tripura for which five additional battalions of BSF
would be required," he added. He also asked the Union
Government to enter into an extradition treaty with Bangladesh
to get hold of the militants hiding in the neighbouring
country: "I feel that the time is now ripe for entering
into an extradition treaty with Bangladesh for which the
Union Government may like to take necessary steps." Stressing
that Bangladesh continued to be a safe haven for militants
active in India’s North East, he reiterated that Tripura
was being used as a corridor for their movement into and
from other States in the region. Meanwhile, the Tripura
Director General of Police, Pranay Sahaya, disclosed,
on November 5, 2009, that the rate of infiltration from
Bangladesh into Tripura was decreasing. "Altogether 2,000
Bangladeshi infiltrators were pushed back from Tripura
in 2007. The number declined to 1,000 last year and this
year, it is slightly more than 600," he added.
Successful
counter-insurgency operations over the years have led
to peace in Tripura. The model of response in the State,
where the Tripura Police was the lead agency in the counter-insurgency
grid, can provide valuable lessons to security agencies
fighting insurgencies elsewhere in the Northeast and across
the country.
|
Weekly
Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
November
2-8,
2009
|
Civilian
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorist/Insurgent
|
Total
|
BANGLADESH
|
|
Left-wing Extremism
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
INDIA
|
|
Assam
|
1
|
0
|
4
|
5
|
Manipur
|
2
|
0
|
10
|
12
|
Jammu and Kashmir
|
1
|
1
|
5
|
7
|
Tripura
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Left-wing Extremism
|
|
Bihar
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Chhattisgarh
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
Jharkhand
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Orissa
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
West Bengal
|
4
|
4
|
0
|
8
|
Total (INDIA)
|
12
|
5
|
21
|
38
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Balochistan
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
FATA
|
7
|
9
|
173
|
189
|
NWFP
|
13
|
4
|
22
|
39
|
Punjab
|
31
|
4
|
3
|
38
|
Total (PAKISTAN)
|
52
|
17
|
198
|
267
|
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.
|
BANGLADESH
‘Foreign
secretary’ and ‘finance secretary’ of ULFA arrested
in Dhaka: The ‘foreign secretary’ Sashadhar
Choudhury and ‘finance secretary’ Chitraban Hazarika
of the Indian terrorist outfit United Liberation
Front of Asom (ULFA) were arrested by intelligence
officials from the Sector 3 area of capital Dhaka
in the night of November 1, 2009. Reports indicate
that, following confirmation of detention of the
two top ULFA leaders by Bangladesh, India, on November
5, opened diplomatic channels to get them back into
the country. The ‘deputy commander-in-chief’ of
ULFA, Raju Baruah, however, claimed that their two
leaders were already handed over to India by Bangladesh.
Without naming India, Raju Baruah told a section
of media in Assam that Bangladeshi intelligence
officials arrested the duo from the Sector 3 area
in Dhaka and handed them over to the "enemy". Raju
Baruah further said that Bangladesh Police had raided
some other areas in Dhaka where, they believed,
the ULFA chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa was hiding.
He also warned Bangladesh that the sovereignty of
the country would be at stake if it did not set
Sashadhar and Chitraban free. Meanwhile, Indian
Home Ministry officials denied this claim made by
the ULFA. Sentinel
Assam;
Assam
Tribune, November 6, 2009.
INDIA
Maoists
ready for talks if there is a ‘cease-fire’: Communist
Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) politburo member
Koteswar Rao alias Kishen said, on November 5,
2009, that the extremists were ready for talks "if
there was cease-fire on both sides" and withdrawal
of the deployed paramilitary forces from the insurgency-affected
States. "The process of talks with the Central
Government can only begin if there is cease-fire on
both sides," Kishen said. When asked to comment
on the Centre’s condition that the Maoists should abjure
violence and only then it was ready to sit across the
table, Kishen told PTI over the phone, "The
Centre is killing innocent people in the name of tackling
the Maoists and they are asking us to abjure violence,
which is ridiculous." He said the Centre would
have to withdraw the paramilitary forces from the seven
States — Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh,
Orissa, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal — and treat
the problems of the tribals in a sympathetic way. "Also,
both the Centre and the State Governments will have
to apologise to the tribals for the prolonged atrocity
meted out to them and the consequent suffering from
the time of Independence," Kishen added. Asked
what should be the nature of the apology, he said, without
elaborating, "They will have to come to the tribals
and apologise."
Separately,
a statement dated November 3, was released by the CPI-Maoist
central committee member and party spokesperson Azad
on November 4, ruling out accepting the demand that
they must end violence. It said, "An agreement
could be reached on by both sides on a ceasefire if
Manmohan Singh [Prime Minister] and P. Chidambaram [Union
Home Minister] give up their irrational, illogical and
absurd stand that Maoists should abjure violence… Asking
Maoists to lay down arms as a pre-condition for talks
shows the utter ignorance of Manmohan Singh and P. Chidambaram
regarding historical and socio-economic factors that
gave rise to the Maoist movement.'' The
Hindu, November 6, 2009.
Lashkar-e-Toiba
planning more terrorist attacks in India:
A day after the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) plot to attack
key installations and schools was revealed by the US
Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), more details
were reported on November 4, 2009, about the terror
plan directed at India. As per a report obtained by
Zeenews, the LeT is planning more 26/11- (the
November 26, 2008 attack in Mumbai) like attacks in
India. FBI inputs suggest that popular tourist spots,
international boarding schools and several key installations
in India are the prime targets of LeT this time. The
terrorist outfit also has major plans to target American
and Israeli citizens currently visiting and residing
in India. In addition, two unidentified militants associated
with the LeT’s Bangladesh module have successfully sneaked
into India through the eastern border. The FBI has warned
Indian intelligence agencies that they have strong evidence
about one of the two militants being in Maharashtra.
The other is said to targeting a major tourist spot,
but keeping a low profile at present in order to avoid
detection by the Indian intelligence agencies. The two
militants are said to be acting on the basis of specific
instructions from LeT ‘commanders’ Ilyas Kashmiri and
Abu Sayed. Zee
News, November 5, 2009.
Naxals
may be getting small arms from China, says Union Home
Secretary G. K. Pillai: The
Government on November 8 indicated that China might
be a source of small arms for Naxalites (Left Wing extremists)
who may be procuring them through smugglers. "Chinese
are big smugglers... suppliers of small arms. I am sure
that the Maoists also get them," Union Home Secretary
G. K. Pillai said, when asked if the Naxals had links
with China. He, however, made it clear that the Government
had no information that the Communist Pry of India-Maoist
(CPI-Maoist) had any links with China except getting
arms. "I do not think so, except getting arms," added.
Pillai did not elaborate on the exact source of the
Chinese arms.
Times
of India,
November 9, 2009.
PAKISTAN
173
militants among 189 persons killed during the week in
FATA: The Security Forces (SFs) killed 20 Taliban
militants "over the last 24 hours" and found
a huge cache of arms and ammunition, while eight soldiers
– including an officer – were injured in Operation
Rah-e-Nijat in various parts of South Waziristan.
A statement by the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR)
said, on November 8, that troops consolidated their
positions around Sararogha, Raghzai and Sagar Langer
Gel, killing three Taliban in a clash: "Eight soldiers
– including an officer – were injured and 12 Taliban
were killed ... a factory for manufacturing IED components
... was found in Gadawai… Taliban fired small arms and
rockets in Blanki Sar, Lagar Manza, Kund Mela and Makeen
... 5 Taliban were killed in clash."
At least
10 Taliban militants were killed in a clash in the Zachmir
Kund area of Mohmand Agency on November 8, official
sources disclosed. The clash erupted when Taliban attacked
security forces with sophisticated weapons during a
search operation in the area. Two SF personnel were
also killed in fighting – which continued for about
four hours. Five security personnel were injured.
The SFs
killed three Taliban militants on November 8 and arrested
another one in an injured condition, while eight others
surrendered to the SFs in the Bajaur Agency.
On November
7, the SFs killed 12 Taliban militants in the Makeen
town of South Waziristan. The SFs cleared the eastern
edge of Makeen during efforts to secure the town.
Troops
on November 6 entered Makeen as the military killed
24 militants in clashes. "Today (Friday), security
forces moved into Makeen, which is considered the headquarters
of the Taliban. A large part of town has been cleared.
In the remaining parts, a search-and-clearance operation
is underway," an ISPR statement disclosed, adding
that intense clashes were in progress, and Taliban militants
were fleeing the area – leaving behind their weapons
and ammunition. Troops killed at least 21 militants
in Makeen, where a house owned by slain TTP chief Baitullah
Mehsud was also demolished. The Security Forces are
also consolidating their positions around Sararogha,
where search-and-clearance operations are underway.
Troops, in addition, killed at least three TTP militants
when the group fired rockets in Sararogha. Separately,
a soldier was killed and six others sustained injuries
during a search and clearance operations by the SFs
in the Bara sub-division of Khyber Agency on November
6.
The SFs
secured Ladha Fort in South Waziristan Agency on November
5 and consolidated their positions on peaks around another
militant base. An ISPR statement indicated that 28 TTP
militants had been killed, taking the death toll for
the outfit to 422 since the Operation Rah-e-Nijat
began on October 17, 2009. Five soldiers, including
an officer, were killed and two were injured on November
5, according to the statement. Further, "Security
Forces have secured Ladha Fort and the northeast area
of Shashak and also cleared Bangel Khel." SFs secured
the Ladha Fort and consolidated their positions on the
peaks in the Sararogha area where the five soldiers
were killed in a blast. The troops also conducted house-to-house
search and clearance operations in the Spin Qamar, Wucha
Kauna Algad and Lugar Manza areas. The SFs also recovered
a heavy cache of arms from the Razmak-Makeen axis. Separately,
four persons were killed when a US pilotless plane struck
a house with missiles in the Naurak village of North
Waziristan Agency on November 5. Tribal sources said
the CIA-operated drone fired two missiles at 1:25 am
at a house of a tribesman named Musharraf in Naurak,
12 kilometres from Miranshah, the headquarters of North
Waziristan, killing four persons. The political administration
confirmed the attack but denied any casualties. In addition,
two militants were killed and three volunteers of a
peace committee were injured in a clash over the abduction
of a doctor in the Sturikhel area of Orakzai Agency
on November 5.
At least
30 militants were killed and eight soldiers, including
two officers, sustained injuries in clashes and street
fighting as the troops entered the Taliban stronghold
of Ladha in South Waziristan Agency on November 4. Official
sources said the fighting continued in Ladha and Sararogha
and the troops cleared a major part of Sararogha following
its capture a day earlier and withdrawal of most of
the militants from the area. Political administration
officials said the troops have also entered the Sam,
Gadwai, Asman Manza and Karwan Manza areas. They said
the troops faced tough resistance from the militants
in Gadwai during their advance towards Ladha. However,
the SFs managed to reach there after clashes with militants.
Separately, four militants were killed when the SFs
exchanged fire with them after an attack on a check-post
at Hangu-Parachinar border in the Kurram Agency in the
night of November 3. A woman was also killed and three
others sustained injuries when an artillery shell fell
at a house in Spim Wam during the exchange of fire.
In addition, two female schoolteachers were killed on
November 4 when the Taliban militants ambushed their
car in Shandai Mor, two kilometres from Khar in Bajaur
Agency. Shazia Begum and Shamim Bibi, teachers at the
Communal Girls School, were travelling from the school
when militants fired on the vehicle, killing the two
and injuring two other persons.
The SFs
advanced towards Janta on November 3 after securing
areas around the Taliban stronghold of Sararogha in
the South Waziristan Agency, where 21 militants and
one soldier were reported dead by the ISPR. Official
sources said the troops had secured the areas around
Sararogha while clashes had taken place near Makeen
and Sam where the militants were offering resistance.
The troops claimed killing 16 militants during clashes
in Sararogha while a soldier was killed and another
injured in a landmine explosion in the area.
The ISPR
Director General, Major General Athar Abbas, said on
November 2 that the SFs had gained complete control
of Kaniguram, a major stronghold of Uzbek fighters.
He said the terrorists there had been using modern weaponry,
fortified positions and bunkers, adding that the entire
area had been cleared of mines and improvised explosive
devices. He said the military had also secured Karama
village, east of Kaniguram, and that other strategically
important points around Kaniguram had also been secured.
Giving details of Operation Rah-e-Nijat, he said
12 militants had been killed in the preceding 24 hours,
and that six SF personnel had been injured. Separately,
seven Taliban militants were killed in clashes with
the SF personnel and aerial strikes in Bajaur Agency
on November 2. The air and ground assault focused on
Ovishah, Seolai, Kharkay and Badalai areas in the Mamoond
sub-division, destroying four terrorist hideouts. The
SFs also reportedly clashed with the militants in Mulla
Said and Mataak in the Salarzai sub-division. Dawn;
Daily
Times;
Jang, November 3-9, 2009.
22
militants and 13 civilians among 39 persons killed during
the week in NWFP: At least 13 people, including
a local councillor heading an anti-Taliban lashkar
(militia), were killed and 44 injured, when a suicide
bomber blew himself up in a cattle market at Adezai
village, 25 kilometres south of Peshawar on November
8. Peshawar Senior Superintendent of Police (Operations)
Muhammad Karim Khan said that that around eight-to-10
kilograms of explosives were used in the blast. The
Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack.
Five
Taliban militants and three Security Force (SF) personnel
were killed in a clash at Tura Warai area of Hangu on
November 7.
Eight
militants were killed and four were arrested during
search operations in the Swat District on November 6.
According to the Swat Media Centre, the SFs conducted
search operations in the Dakorak area of Charbagh sub-division
early in the morning. During an exchange of fire with
troops, local Taliban leader Fida Hussain and his four
aides, Latif, Arsal Khan, Mohammad Anwar and Roshan,
were killed. In another encounter, militant leader Fazal
Maabud was killed and his unnamed associate was injured.
In the Kabal sub-division, troops killed suspected militants
Abdul Wali and Bakht Sher in a clash. Elsewhere in the
province, an official of the Frontier Constabulary was
killed and four persons, including a woman and boy,
were injured in a militant attack on the Tora Warai
Fort in Thall sub-division of Hangu District on November
6.
SFs killed
at least four suspected Taliban militants in the Hangu
District on November 4. A private TV channel reported
that SF personnel were attacked by the Taliban at the
Spin Thall check-post, near the District’s border with
Kurram Agency in the FATA. The SFs killed four militants
in retaliation. Separately, two alleged suicide bombers
accidentally blew themselves up on their way to the
PAF Range road, 25 kilometres from Kohat city in the
Kohat District. According to Police, the suicide bombers
were riding a motorcycle. After apparently slipping
on the road, one of the bomber’s jacket accidentally
exploded. Police teams have recovered the arms, legs
and head of one of the bombers, the channel reported.
A would-be
suicide bomber was killed before reaching his target
in the Lachi sub-division of Kohat District on November
3. The Deputy Inspector General of Police, Abdullah
Khan, told The News that a would-be suicide bomber,
riding a motorcycle, was heading to his alleged target
when he was blown up near the Iftikhar Well area in
Lachi at 9:15 pm (PST). Elsewhere in the NWFP, a militant
was killed and two others sustained injuries during
a search operation carried out by the SFs at Manago
area in the Shangla District on November 3. Dawn;
Daily
Times;
Jang, November 3-9, 2009.
Anti-Money
Laundering Bill 2009 approved: The National Assembly
Standing Committee on Finance on November 3, 2009 approved
the Anti-Money Laundering Bill 2009, declaring "terrorism
financing" a criminal offence. Officials of the Finance
Ministry and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reportedly
informed the committee members that Pakistan, being
a signatory to various UN conventions, required laws
in line with international standards to combat money
laundering and terrorism financing. The committee meeting,
presided over by Fauzia Wahab, was attended by Finance
Minister Shaukat Tareen, Finance Secretary Salman Siddique,
the SBP deputy governor, SBP Banking Policy director
and other senior officials. The committee also approved
increases in penalties from PKR 1 million to PKR 5 million
for a company or its employees found guilty of an offence
under the proposed bill. The committee was informed
that the amendments were in line with international
standards on combating money laundering and financing
of terrorism. In the proposed bill, the definition of
"financial institutions" includes any institution accepting
deposits and other repayable funds from public, lending
in whatsoever form, financial leasing, money or valuable
transfer, managing credit and debit cards, cheques,
travellers cheque, money orders, bank drafts and electronic
money among other financial activities.
Daily
Times,
November 4, 2009.
35
persons killed in suicide attack in Rawalpindi:
At least 35 persons, including
two women and children, were killed and 63 others sustained
injuries when a suicide bomber blew himself up outside
a branch of the National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) in Rawalpindi
on November 2, 2009. The majority of the blasts victims
were reportedly military personnel and employees of
the Defence Ministry who had queued up at the NBP Shalimar
Plaza Branch to draw their salaries. It was the second
terrorist attack in the Red Zone area of the garrison
city within a month. According to eyewitnesses, many
of the victims were retired military personnel who had
gathered at the bank to draw their pensions. Several
surrounding offices, part of a nearby hotel and a number
of vehicles were also destroyed. Eyewitnesses said the
attack occurred at 10:40 AM, when a man riding a motorcycle
approached the parking lot of the plaza and blew himself
up in front of the NBP branch, in close proximity to
the Pearl Continental Hotel, the military’s General
Headquarters and the State Bank of Pakistan. Rawalpindi
Regional Police Officer (RPO) Aslam Tareen confirmed
the eyewitnesses’ account: "We found parts of a suicide
vest and some body parts of the suicide attacker. At
least 35 people were killed and 63 others were wounded."
The Inter-Services Public Relations Director General,
Major General Athar Abbas, said four soldiers were killed
and nine injured in the attack.
Daily
Times,
November 5, 2009.
SRI LANKA
Number
of IDPs reduced to 150,000: The Resettlement
and Disaster Relief Services Minister Rishard Bathiudeen
announced that the resettlement of 50 percent of the
Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), who were in the
welfare villages in the Northern Province, at their
former homes, was a major success for the Government.
The number of IDPs had now been reduced to 150,000 from
the original total of 280,000. The Minister revealed
this information at the special media conference held
in the Parliamentary Complex on November 4, 2009. "We
are progressively going ahead in the resettlement process
of the IDPs under the directive of the President Mahinda
Rajapakse, in accordance with Northern Spring (the Government’s
plans for socio-economic and political reconstruction
of the war-ravaged North) with the unstinted co-operation
of Basil Rajapaksa, Member of Parliament, the Senior
Advisor to the President and the Chairman of the Presidential
Task Force," the Minister stated. Further, the Nation
Building Minister S. M. Chandrasena stated that 19 heavy
machines had been imported from Czech Republic to propel
the de-mining process in the Northern Province. Daily
News, November 5, 2009.
The
South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular
data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional
warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic,
political, and social issues, in the South Asian region. SAIR
is a project of the Institute
for Conflict Management and the
South
Asia Terrorism Portal.
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