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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 30, January 25, 2016
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa: Terror Untamed
Tushar
Ranjan Mohanty
Research
Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
Shocking
memories of the gruesome
attack on December 16, 2014, at the
Army Public School (APS) Peshawar were revived when terrorists
stormed the Bacha Khan University in the Charsadda District
of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) on January 20, 2016, killing
at least 21 persons and causing injuries to another 35.
The victims included 17 students, two gardeners, a caretaker
and a professor. The attack ended with all the four attackers
shot dead after a three hour operation. Deputy Inspector
General of Police (DIG), Mardan Range, Mohammad Saeed
Wazir, who led the operation, declared, “Our cops fought
bravely to shoot dead all the four attackers one by one.
They were wearing suicide jackets but none of them could
succeed in blowing himself up.” The mastermind of the
APS Peshawar attack, Khalifa Umar Mansoor aka Aurangzeb,
of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)’s
Geedar faction claimed the attack through a post on his
Facebook page. However, the ‘central spokesperson’
of the TTP, Muhammad Khorasani, denied any involvement
stating, “The TTP and its amir Maulana Fazalullah
have nothing to do with the attack.” The TTP has three
prominent factions – Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA), the Geedar
faction and the Mehsud faction (also known as Sajna faction).
The parent TTP is led by Mullah Fazlullah.
A day earlier,
on January 19, 2016, a TTP suicide bomber targeted the
tribal Khasadar (locally raised security formations
selected from each tribe) force at the Karkhano checkpost,
the entry-point to Peshawar from the Khyber Agency in
the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), and killed
12 persons, including a journalist, Mehboob Shah Afridi,
while 39 others sustained injuries. Afridi, president
of the Tribal Union of Journalists, Khyber Agency chapter,
was talking to the Line Officer Nawab Shah at the time
of the attack.
In the
latest of a series of attacks on Security Force (SF) personnel,
unidentified terrorists shot dead two personnel of the
Police Elite Force Unit in the Rasheed Ghari area of Peshawar
on January 22. Superintendent of Police (SP) Imtiaz disclosed
that the Policemen were trained in the use of security
scanners. The motorcycle-riding assailants escaped from
the site of the attack.
According
to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database,
KP has recorded at least 27 terrorism-related fatalities,
including 21 civilians, four terrorists and two SF personnel,
in the first 22 days of the current year, 2016. During
the same period of the preceding year the Province had
recorded 18 such fatalities, including eight civilians,
eight terrorists and two SF personnel, indicating a definite
increase in the level of terrorist violence.
While the
trend in 2016 is nascent, it conforms to the trajectory
established over the preceding six months, as compared
to the first six months of 2015. While total fatalities
stood at 119 (63 civilians, 23 SF personnel, 33 terrorists)
between January and June 2015, they increased to 149 (54
civilians, 53 SF personnel, 42 terrorists) between July
and December 2015. Significantly, the two major incidents
of January 2016 followed the December 29, 2015, attack
in which a suicide bomber had blown himself up at the
gate of National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA)
office located on the Link Road in Mardan town, killing
26 people and injuring 50. The blast took place at a time
when the office was crowded, with people lining up to
apply for Computerised National Identity Cards (CNICs).
The JuA, a TTP splinter, claimed responsibility for the
attack.
It will
clearly be a major challenge in 2016 to sustain the declining
trend of fatalities recorded in the Province since 2014
on an year on year basis. Terrorism-related fatalities
recorded a sharp decline from 617 fatalities (406 civilians,
108 SF personnel and 103 terrorists) in 2014, to 268 fatalities,
including 117 civilians, 76 SF personnel and 75 terrorists,
in 2015. This was the lowest number of such fatalities
recorded in the Province since the formation of TTP in
2007. At its peak in 2009, terrorism in the Province had
accounted for 5,497 fatalities (1,229 civilians, 471 SF
personnel, 3,797 terrorists).
Other parameters
of violence also saw a drop. The Province recorded six
suicide attacks resulting in 63 fatalities and 113 injured
through 2015, as against nine such attacks recorded in
2014, resulting in 196 fatalities and 260 injured. KP
also saw 19 major attacks (each resulting in three or
more fatalities) causing 133 deaths in 2015, as against
49 major attacks accounting for 436 deaths in 2014. The
number of explosions and resulting fatalities stood at
40 and 77 respectively through 2015, as against 109 and
354, respectively, in 2014. Violent incidents in 2015
were reported from 21 of the 26 Districts in the Province.
In 2014, violent incidents were reported from 22 Districts.
The number of sectarian attacks decreased from nine in
2014 to five in 2015, though the resultant fatalities
increased to 28 in 2015 from 18 in 2014. As in 2014, Peshawar,
the provincial capital, remained the worst affected District
through 2015, recording 74 terrorism-related incidents,
in which 99 people were killed and another 91 were injured.
Nevertheless,
the attack on January 20, 2016, clearly demonstrates that
the terrorists retain capacities to execute significant
attacks at will. Moreover, through 2015, the number of
terrorists neutralized in the Province stood at 75, the
lowest since 2006, when it was 27. However, an assessment
on the implementation of the National Action Plan (NAP),
undertaken in the wake of the Peshawar APS attack, which
was released on November 11, 2015, stated that SFs in
the Province have made over 10,000 arrests, 22,000 detentions
and 508 search and strike operations from December 17,
2014 to October 31, 2015. However, the rise in extortion
activities and the recent incidents of killing in the
Province raise doubts over the quality and impact of such
arrests and detentions.
In the
interim, the Government has sought repeatedly to buy peace
with the terrorists, and SF operations have slowed down
in the Province. Expectedly, the terrorists are using
this phase of relative peace to regroup and regain their
strength, with rampant extortion
to shore up their war chest. The worrisome growth of extortion
activities in the Province in general and in provincial
capital Peshawar in particular is a matter of concern.
Peshawar has emerged as a second extortion capital, after
Karachi, in recent times. According to Peshawar Police
data released on November 14, 2015, as many as 58 cases
of extortion had been reported under separate Police Stations
falling under three Police Circles over the preceding
10 months. Of these, 38 were reported in the Peshawar
Cantonment Circle; 14 in Peshawar City Circle; and six
in the Peshawar Rural Circle. An unnamed Police official,
on the condition of anonymity, is reported to have stated
that the actual incidence would likely be much higher,
because most victims don’t contact the Police out of fear.
Data collected from the Central Police Office, Peshawar,
puts the annual average of extortion cases registered
during years 2011, 2012, and 2013, at 30 per year. 13
cases of extortion were registered in 2011; 21 in 2012;
56 in 2013. The figure rose abruptly to 285 cases in the
first three quarters of 2014.
In another
worrying development, the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant
[ISIL, later, the Islamic State (IS) or Daesh] appears
to be making inroads in the already volatile region. Pamphlets
and hate materials were recovered and suspected persons
linked with the outfit were arrested through 2015. On
May 15, 2015, Police arrested two suspects during a raid
for allegedly circulating Daesh literature in the Nauthia
area of Peshawar. Similarly, on July 2, 2015, Police arrested
three suspected terrorists said to be inspired by the
Islamic State from the Shamshadu Bazaar area of Peshawar.
Inspector General of Police (IGP), KP, Nasir Khan Durrani
conceded, "IS's presence in Pakistan is not a new
phenomenon, members who belonged to the outlawed TTP have
switched sides in some cases. It is wrong to say IS does
not have a presence in KP."
Meanwhile,
Islamabad has demonstrated extraordinary ambivalence towards
ending the menace of terrorism. According to a January
23, 2016, report, the Federal Government has failed to
respond to the KP Government’s request for a PKR 66.280
billion special security package for the Province, made
on March 24, 2015. Concerned officials told the media,
on January 22, 2016, that the KP Government had written
again to the Federal Finance Ministry on December 31,
2015, reminding it of the Province’s financial needs for
security. No response had been received.
Worse,
instead of working for the de-weaponisation of society,
the Government appears to be promoting the menace of a
gun culture. On January 14, 2015, in a bizarre response
to the Peshawar APS attack, the KP Government granted
male teachers permission to carry licensed weapons in
school. Media reports on April 19, 2015, quoting the statistical
documents submitted by the Provincial Home and Tribal
Affairs Department to the Provincial Assembly, disclosed
that licenses for around 161,441 prohibited bore weapons
had been issued since May 2013. According to documents
submitted, Bannu District topped the list with around
66,000 licences issued. When contacted, Bannu Deputy Commissioner
Mohammad Ayaz Khan stated, on April 19, 2015, that the
issuance of 66,000 licences in the District during the
preceding two years was astonishing: “I doubt this figure.
Let me check it because I don’t believe that licences
would have been issued in such a large number.”
Against
the Government’s lackadaisical approach, the terrorists
continue to issue new threats. Following the December
29, 2015, attack targeting NADRA, JuA ‘spokesman’, Ehsanullah
Ehsan, had warned, “NADRA is an integral part of the State
and any such targets that directly or indirectly work
for the State will be our target.” Most recently, on January
22, 2016, releasing a video showing four attackers involved
in January 20, 2016, University attack, Umar Mansoor warned,
"Now we will not kill the soldier in his cantonment,
the lawyer in the court or the politician in Parliament
but in the places where they are prepared, the schools,
the universities, the colleges that lay their foundation.
With the mercy of god, our attacks on all universities
and schools will continue."
The Bacha
Khan University attack has once again underscored Pakistan’s
enormous vulnerabilities, particularly to soft target
attacks, as well as the capacity and intent of terrorist
formations to inflict harm on the country’s social and
political fabric. The state is yet to demonstrate the
will and the capacity to wipe out terrorism, and state
agencies remain deeply embroiled with a range of terrorist
factions operating across international borders. Widespread
weaponisation of non-state actors and active collusion
of state agencies have created an environment in which
terrorism – including domestic groups that have gone rogue
and target the state itself – flourishes. The transient
rise and fall of trends in domestic terrorist violence
are yet to alter the fundamental and perverse realities
of Pakistan.
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Assam:
Volatile Peace
Nijeesh
N.
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
As Assam
recorded the lowest insurgency-related fatalities in 2015,
since 1992, hopes of a lasting peace were regenerated.
Nevertheless, enduring challenges have scuttled such hopes
in the past, and many of these remain unaddressed. Significantly,
the trend of overall fatalities has remained erratic in
the State, recording a sustained decline between 2010
and 2012 (158 in 2010; 94 in 2011 and 91 in 2012); escalated
in 2013 to 101; and took Assam to the status of the worst-affected
State in India, with 305 fatalities in 2014.
According
to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) insurgency-related
violence accounted for a total of 59 deaths, including
48 militants, 10 civilians and one Security Force (SF)
trooper through 2015. In comparison, 2014 had recorded
305 killings, including 184 civilians, 116 militants and
five SF personnel. Prior to this, the lowest insurgency-related
fatalities in the State stood at 91 (55 militants, 32
civilians, four SF personnel) in 2012. At the peak of
insurgency, Assam had recorded 783 fatalities (531 civilians,
180 militants, 72 SF personnel) in 1998.
In 2016,
there have been just two fatalities – one civilian and
a militant – in the State, till date. A cadre of the National
Santhal Liberation Army (NSLA), an Adivasi (aboriginal
tribal people) militant group, identified as Ram Kishku
aka Ram Hembrom, was killed in an encounter with
Assam Police near Grahampur under Srirampur Police outpost
in the Gossaigaon Subdivision of Kokrajhar District on
January 13, 2016. Earlier on January 1, 2016, in a clash
that took place inside the Sudempuri Camp in Kokrajhar
District, where surrendered National Democratic Front
of Bodoland (NDFB)
cadres have been kept, one Darendra Basumatary was killed
and another militant, Aninda, was injured, when the accused,
Rakesh Brahma, opened fire at them after a fight. Police
subsequently arrested Rakesh Brahma along with his weapon.
The trio had surrendered in 2006.
Crucially,
the number of civilians killed through 2015 (at 10) was
the lowest since 1992. Earlier, the lowest figure in this
category was 32 in 2012. The civilian population in the
State thus appears to be more secure than it has been
for nearly a quarter of a century – the single most significant
achievement of the year.
Similarly,
with just one SF trooper killed in 2015, this was also
the lowest SF fatality since 1992. In 2014, SF fatalities
stood at five; the highest number of SF fatalities were
recorded way back in 1996, when 87 personnel had been
killed fighting the insurgents.
48 militants
were killed through 2015, as against 116 through 2014.
The fall in this category coincided with overall decline
in total fatalities, and can mainly be ascribed to the
fact the SF operations have forced the militants to scale
down their activities in the State, even as the progressive
splintering of the principal militant formations has undermined
their operational capacities. Significantly, 2015 saw
the best SF/militant kill ratio recorded in the State,
at 1:48. At the peak of insurgency, in 1996, the ratio
stood at 1:0.7.
Most militant
formations operating in Assam continued to suffer losses
in 2015. Of the 48 militants killed, the I.K. Songbijit
faction of the NDFB (NDFB-IKS) lost the largest number
in clashes with SFs, 23; followed by Karbi People's Liberation
Tigers (KPLT),
11; the Action faction of Dima Halim Daogah (DHD-A),
two; Jabinkhe Naiso Boshom (JNB), two; the Original faction
of the United Democratic Liberation Front (UDLF-O), two.
One cadre each of the Independent faction of the United
Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-I), Garo National Liberation
Army (GNLA),
Kamtapur Liberation Organization (KLO),
Dima Hasao National Army (DHNA) and United Peoples Liberation
Front (UPLF) were also killed. Group affiliation of the
remaining three militants killed was not specified. The
prominent militants killed included, DHD-A ‘chairman and
commander-in-chief’, Sibu Kemprai and a founding member
of the group, Nigam Phonglo. Of 10 civilian killings,
ULFA-I was responsible for five and NDFB-IKS for two.
The remaining three killings in this category remained
unattributed. NDFB-IKS was responsible for the lone SF
killing in 2015.
SFs arrested
602 militants of different outfits during 2015. These
included 234 belonging to NDFB-IKS; followed by KPLT,
58; ULFA-I, 37; NSLA, 22; Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh
(JMB),
20; Muslim Tiger Force of Assam (MTFA), 19; CPI-Maoist,
19; GNLA, 18; United People's Liberation Army (UPLA),
11; and Muslim United Liberation Tigers of Assam (MULTA),
10. 405 militants had been arrested through 2014.
On August
14, 2015, SFs arrested 12 KPLT militants, including its
self-styled ‘chairman' Sarmung Timung, from the forested
area of East Karbi Anglong in Karbi Anglong District.
After the operation, Defence Public Relations Officer
(PRO), Lieutenant Colonel Suneet Newton stated, “This
operation has practically put an end to KPLT in East Karbi
Anglong."
Similarly,
following the killing of the NSLA militant in the January
13, 2016, encounter in Kokrajhar District, Bodoland Territorial
Council (BTC) Inspector General of Police (IGP), L.R.
Bishnoi asserted that, with the elimination of NSLA militant
Ram Hembrom, the area would be peaceful to a great extent,
as most disruptive activities were carried out under his
command. He said the total strength of the NSLA was around
40, of which 22 were arrested in 2015, four were killed
in different encounters and the remaining cadres were
involved in criminal activities.
Notably,
SFs had launched ‘Operation All Out’ to flush out militants
after the NDFB-IKS militants massacred
over 69 Adivasis on December 23, 2014. The operation,
in which Indian Air Force, Army, Paramilitary Forces and
State Police work together, is still on.
Meanwhile,
other parameters of violence, including major incidents,
Districts affected by violence, killing of non-locals,
etc., recorded sharp declines as well.
As against
18 major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities)
resulting in 181 deaths recorded in 2014, 2015 saw just
two such incidents, accounting for six deaths. Further,
the number of Districts from where the fatalities were
reported stood at 13 in 2015 as compared to 19 in 2014,
out of a total of 32 Districts in the State (including
five new Districts created in 2015; Biswanath Chariali,
Hojai, West Karbi Anglong, Charaideu and South Salmara-Mankachar).
The Districts from where killings were reported in 2015
were Karbi Anglong (12), Kokrajhar (12), Dima Hasao (9),
Chirang (6), Sonitpur (5), Dhubri (2), Karimganj (2),
Sivasagar (2), Tinsukia (2), Udalguri (2), Darrang (1),
Goalpara (1), and Lakhimpur (1). In 2015, five non-locals
were killed as against eight such deaths recorded in 2014.
However, the number of attacks on non-locals increased
from three in 2014 to four in 2015. ULFA-I was responsible
for all the four attacks against non-locals in 2015. No
such attacks had been reported through 2012 and 2013.
Also, the number of explosions decreased from 20 in 2014
to just six in 2015, and resultant fatalities reduced
from eight in 2014 to two in 2015.
Reported
incidents of abduction and extortion by militants also
fell during the year 2015. According to Assam
Police records, there were 5,192 cases
of abductions registered in the State in 2015 (data till
October); as against 5,378 cases in 2014. The data further
shows that there were 1,157 extortion-related cases registered
in 2015 (data till October); as against 1,357 in 2014.
Though most of the abductions were carried out by criminals,
the Home Department records did not rule out the role
of militant outfits of the region in some of the incidents.
The process
of talks with some militants group also continued through
2015. In a major
development, on November 11, 2015,
Bangladesh handed over the ‘general secretary’ of the
undivided ULFA, Golap Baruah aka Anup Chetia, and
two of his prison mates who were arrested along with him
in Bangladesh in 1997, to Indian Security Agencies. Soon
thereafter, Chetia was brought to India, and was placed
under arrest in connection with various cases of extortion,
abduction, murder and attempt to murder. He was released
on bail on December 24, 2015, and has made a commitment
to participate in ongoing talks between ULFA-I and the
Government. Seven leaders of the Pro-Talks faction of
the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-PTF), including
Anup Chetia and ‘chairman’ Arabinda Rajkhowa, met interlocutor
P.C. Haldar at the Border Security Force (BSF) camp in
Patgaon in Guwahati on January 21, 2016, and discussed
issues concerning the ongoing talks with the Centre. After
the meeting, Rajkhowa said that Chetia's inclusion would
give a fresh impetus to the talks and a solution would
soon be worked out with the Government.
13 militant
groups are currently under Suspension of Operations (SoO)
agreements with the Government, and another four groups
– Bodo Liberation Tigers (BLT), United People's Democratic
Solidarity (UPDS), Dilip Nunisa faction of Dima Halim
Daogah (DHD-N) and Jewel Garlosa faction of DHD (DHD-J)
– have signed Memorandum of Settlement (MoS) agreements
with the Government. However, no new SoOs or MoSs were
signed in 2015.
Despite
these broad gains, the State continues to face challenges
from various insurgent groups. Then Director General of
Police (DGP) Khagen Sarma in his farewell speech on November
30, 2015, observed,
Militancy
might be on the decline in the State but it was
far from over. Though agreements have been signed
with four militant groups and 13 others are in talks
with the Government, some breakaway factions of
these groups, which are yet to join the peace process,
remain a worry for the security forces…
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Again,
on December 26, 2015, he had noted “Assam has religious
fundamentalists and that has generated a lot of interest
in the ISIS. Hits in the Internet photos of ISIS are very
high in Assam.”
Raising
similar concerns, the new DGP of Assam, Mukesh Sahay,
stated on November 30, 2015,
We
cannot lower our guards or sit back and relax. Militancy
can rise from the ashes and we have to come up to
meet the challenges. Militancy may have declined
but it has the potential to reignite. We have to
be constantly on alert and formulate our response
to any situation.
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Echoing
these views, Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi observed,
on November 6, 2015, "Islamic outfits, Maoists and
all other insurgent organizations are trying to create
trouble in the State, but we are vigilant, containing
insurgency is the single-most (important) achievement
of my three terms in office but there are several forces
trying to destabilise the State and its development."
Indeed,
State Parliamentary Affairs Minister Rockybul Hussain
on December 8, 2015, had informed the State Assembly,
that eight militant groups – ULFA-I, NDFB-IKS, KPLT, KLO,
CPI-Maoist, MULTA, JMB and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM)
– were presently active in Assam. Among these, NDFB-IKS
and ULFA-I dominated insurgent activities in the State
in 2015.
Reports
also indicate that ULFA-I, NDFB-IKS, KLO and the Khaplang
faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland
(NSCN-K) had jointly formed the United National Liberation
Front of Western South East Asia (UNLFWSEA),
a common front of militant groups in India’s Northeast
region. Different ethnic armed groups (EAGs) continued
with efforts to engage in disruptive activities and had
formed this united platform – UNLFWSEA; they were also
developing a nexus with transnational jihadi groups
and Maoists, increasing the threat potential in the State.
The entrenched
dangers of Islamist terrorism continued to haunt the State
through 2015. According to a May 21, 2015, report, a JMB
militant, Lal Mohammed aka Ibrahim, who was arrested
on April 18, 2015, by Jharkhand Police, revealed to his
interrogators that his group’s sabotage plans in Assam
were intended to counter Bodo aggression. According to
a report dated, September 20, 2015, the Guwahati Police
also warned that some Islamic terror groups had started
recruiting Muslim youth in the Bodoland Districts of Chirang,
Kokrajhar and Baksa, with the intention of triggering
fresh violence during the run-up to the 2016 State Assembly
elections. Notably, two modules of JMB detected in the
State were in the Barpeta and Nalbari Districts, situated
close to the Bodoland Territorial Area Districts (BTAD).
The JMB modules were exposed in the countrywide crackdown
in the aftermath of the October 2, 2014 Burdwan
blasts.
Worryingly,
on September 16, 2015, Police and Central Reserve Police
Force (CRPF) neutralized a jihadi training camp
and arrested three suspected extremists, identified
as Minarul Islam, Bodiul Zamal Sekh, and Zohorul Haque
from the Daukhanagar area under the Dhaligaon Police Station
of Chirang District. According to the Police, at least
nine persons from Barpeta, Bongaigaon, Baksa, Nalbari
and Kokrajhar were undergoing training at the residence
of a man identified as Iman Ali. Subsequently, on September
18, 2015, Police recovered eight handmade AK Rifles and
two handmade INSAS Rifles from the backyard of the house
of another person, Mohammad Sayed Mia, allegedly associated
with the training camp. Though exact information about
the group behind the training camp is yet to come to light,
unconfirmed sources from the Police disclosed that the
Islamic extremist MULTA was the brain behind the training
camp. Intelligence Bureau (IB) reports also suggest that
JMB uses MULTA as the umbrella organization of various
jihadi elements in Assam to carry out organizational
activities, including collecting money, and imparting
basic motivation and training to youth who are willing
to join.
Further,
according to an October, 8, 2015, report, the Maoists
continue to struggle to gain a foothold in the Northeast
and they are tapping a ‘wide’ range of allies’, including
rhino poachers in Kaziranga and the major militant groups
operating in the region, including the Isak-Muivah faction
of NSCN (NSCN-IM).
Another report published on October 20, 2015, claimed
that the Maoists were making fresh recruitments, particularly
targeting youth aged 12 years and above, as they were
running short of manpower in Assam. The seven Upper Assam
Districts of Dhemaji, Jorhat, Lakhimpur, Dibrugarh, Tinsukia,
Sivasagar and Golaghat, with Districts bordering the neighbouring
Hill States, are believed to be vulnerable to Maoist mobilization,
while the belt along the Brahmaputra River is also thought
to be susceptible. Though arms’ training of recruits is
largely located outside Assam, political mobilization
imparted to them in Upper Assam itself.
While the
Central Forces with the help of the State Police have
succeeded in minimizing the threat from insurgency, neutralizing
the remaining challenges to establish a lasting peace
will require a significant strengthening of the State
Police Forces, as well as concerted efforts on the developmental
and administration fronts. The Assam Government has introduced
the Centre’s ‘SMART [Strict and Sensitive, Modern and
Mobile, Alert and Accountable, Reliable and Responsive,
Techno savvy and Trained] Police’ initiative, to make
the Police more responsive, tech savvy, physically fit,
alert with a modern outlook and scientific temper. However,
manpower in the Police Force continues to remain low.
According to Assam Police records, 12,805 posts out of
the 64,988 sanctioned posts in the Police Department are
vacant. This included 26 posts of Indian Police Service
(IPS) out of total 135 sanctioned. The Assam Police Department
issued an official notification for recruitment to 2,564
posts in various categories in December 2015.
Though
levels of violence have come down considerably, extremist
undercurrents and the nexus between ethnic militants,
Islamic jihadists and Maoists create enduring vulnerabilities.
The presence of pan-Islamist terrorist networks, combined
with the porous border with Bangladesh, and Maoist ambitions
in the region, add fuel to ongoing ethnic insurgencies
in the region. Former DGP Khagen Sarma noted that "ethnic
and other militants come and immediately unleash their
violence. Religious fundamentalists prepare and take a
long time to commit crime." It is within this context
of both immediate and long term threats that the State
must fashion its policies and align its capacities of
response.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
January
18-24, 2016
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists/Insurgents
|
Total
|
INDIA
|
|
Jammu and
Kashmir
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Meghalaya
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Punjab
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
West Bengal
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Left-Wing
Extremism
|
|
Bihar
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Chhattisgarh
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
Odisha
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Total (INDIA)
|
1
|
0
|
10
|
11
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Balochistan
|
0
|
7
|
11
|
18
|
FATA
|
12
|
4
|
27
|
43
|
KP
|
21
|
2
|
4
|
27
|
Punjab
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
Sindh
|
0
|
0
|
5
|
5
|
Total (PAKISTAN)
|
|
|
|
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
|
BANGLADESH
Five-member
committee
formed
to
gather
information
about
195
Pakistani
POWs:
International
Crimes
Tribunal
(ICT)
on
January
18
formed
a
five-member
informal
committee
to
gather
information
about
the
195
Pakistani
prisoners
of
war
(POWs).
The
five-member
committee
will
collect
information,
books
and
documents
on
the
atrocities
committed
by
the
Pakistani
soldiers
during
the
Liberation
War
of
Bangladesh
in
1971.
Dhaka Tribune,
January
21,
2016.
INDIA
13
persons
arrested
during
search
/raids
conducted
at
12
locations
in
six
cities:
At
least
13
persons
were
arrested
by
the
National
Investigation
Agency
(NIA)
during
search/raids
conducted
at
12
locations
in
six
cities
viz.
Bangalore,
Tumkur,
Mangalore,
Hyderabad,
Mumbai
and
Lucknow
with
the
support
of
local
police
forces.
ATS,
Maharashtra
also
conducted
raids/
reaches
at
two
other
locations.
Another
person
was
detained.
NIA,
January
22-23,
2016.
IS
terror
designs
in
India
'revealed',
says
report:
Indians
based
out
of
Syria
have
formed
a
module
of
the
deadly
terror
group
Islamic
State
(IS)
to
carry
out
attacks
back
home,
sources
in
intelligence
agencies
have
said.
Sources
told
that
these
terrorists
have
been
recruiting
in
India
since
2014
and
that
at
least
60
could
be
active
in
the
country
now.
This
is
a
big
jump
from
a
previous
estimate
of
23
active
IS
local
operatives.
IBN Live,
January
23,
2016.
37
persons
on
Maoist
hit
list
in
Maharashtra:
The
Communist
Party
of
India-Maoist
(CPI-Maoist)
in
Maharashtra
has
issued
a
'hit
list'
of
37
persons
who
they
vow
to
eliminate
in
2016.
The
Maoists
have
roped
in
units
of
'Company-10',
trained
to
kill
with
precision,
from
Chhattisgarh
to
execute
the
plan.
The Hindu,
January
21,
2016.
Pathankot
attack
part
of
our
activity
and
it
has
nothing
to
do
with
Indo-Pak
dialogue,
claims
HM
'chief'
Syed
Salahuddin:
Hizbul
Mujahideen
(HM)
'chief'
Syed
Salahuddin
has
taken
responsibility
for
the
Pathankot
attack
(January
2),
calling
it
"a
continuation
of
their
activity,
targeting
Indian
military
installations".
He
also
criticised
Pakistan
Prime
Minister
Nawaz
Sharif's
"Kashmir
policy".
These
comments
are
part
of
an
interview
to
an
Urdu
news
portal,
Wajood,
based
in
Pakistan.
Indian Express,
January
21,
2016.
NEPAL
Nepal
makes
first
amendment
of
its
constitution
four
months
after
promulgation,
says
report:
The
Legislature-Parliament
on
January
23
endorsed
the
Bill
on
First
Amendment
of
Constitution
of
Nepal
and
amended
the
country's
charter
with
two
thirds
majority
four
months
after
its
promulgation.
Taking
into
consideration
the
demands
of
the
Madhes-based
parties,
the
amendment
has
included
provisions
to
ensure
proportional
representation
and
electoral
constituencies
based
on
population.
For
that,
two
articles
-
Article
42
and
Article
286
-
were
amended.
The
amendment
aims
at
resolving
the
ongoing
agitation
by
the
Madhesi
parties.
The
lawmakers
of
agitating
parties,
however,
boycotted
the
voting,
saying
the
purported
amendment
was
incomplete
and
would
not
address
their
demands.
The Himalayan
Times,
January
24,
2016.
PAKISTAN
27
militants
and
12
civilians
among
43
persons
killed
during
the
week
in
FATA:
At
least
17
terrorists
were
killed
in
aerial
raids
conducted
by
the
Security
Forces
(SFs)
in
Shawal
and
Dattakhel
areas
of
North
Waziristan
Agency
in
North
Waziristan
Agency
of
Federally
Administered
Tribal
Areas
(FATA)
on
January
24.
Four
civilians
died
and
two
others
received
injuries
when
one
of
six
rockets
fired
from
the
Afghan
side
of
the
border
hit
a
shop
in
Angoor
Adda
in
South
Waziristan
Agency
on
January
21.
Security
Forces
(SFs)
killed
nine
terrorists
in
air
raids
in
Khyber
Agency
on
January
20.
12,
including
a
journalist,
were
killed
while
39
others
sustained
injuries
on
January
19
when
a
suicide
bomber
targeted
the
tribal
Khassadar
force
in
the
Karkhano
Market
of
Khyber
Agency.
Daily
Times;
Dawn;
The
News;
Tribune;
The
Nation;
The
Frontier
Post;
Pakistan
Today;
Pakistan
Observer,
January
19-25,
2016.
25
persons
killed
in
militant
attack
on
Bacha
Khan
University
of
Charsadda:
The
Tehreek-e-Taliban
Pakistan
(TTP)
militants
stormed
the
Bacha
Khan
University
in
Charsadda
District
of
Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa
(KP)
on
January
20,
killing
at
least
21
persons
and
causing
injuries
to
35
others.
Victims
included
17
students,
two
gardeners,
a
caretaker
and
a
professor.
The
mastermind
of
the
December
16,
2014,
Army
Public
School
(APS)
Peshawar
attack,
Khalifa
Umar
Mansoor
alias
Aurangzeb,
of
the
TTP
Geedar
faction
has
claimed
the
attack
through
a
post
on
his
Facebook
page,
adding
that
four
attackers
were
sent
to
the
university.
The
News,
January
21,
2016.
130,190
search
operations
carried
out
under
NAP
in
Pakistan:
According
to
authoritative
sources,
around
130,190
combing
and
search
operations
were
conducted
till
the
middle
of
January
2016
throughout
the
country
as
part
of
the
National
Action
Plan
(NAP).
Giving
the
details
of
operations,
the
sources
said
that
in
the
Islamabad
Capital
Territory
and
Gilgit-Baltistan,
6,580
search
operations
were
conducted
since
January
15,
2015,
in
which
3,455
arrests
were
made
and
one
terrorist
was
killed.
Similarly,
in
the
Punjab,
the
number
of
operations
carried
out
was
38,038.
During
these
operations,
6,346
arrests
were
made
and
62
terrorists
were
killed.
The
highest
numbers
of
operations
were
carried
out
in
the
KP,
i.e.
55,634.
The
arrests
made
were
3,223
while
the
number
of
terrorists
killed
was
unavailable.
The News,
January
25,
2016.
Bank
accounts
of
30
seminaries
and
300
NGOs
frozen
in
Gilgit
Baltistan:
The
bank
accounts
of
30
seminaries
and
over
300
Non-Governmental
Organisations
(NGOs)
have
been
frozen
in
Gilgit-Baltistan
(GB)
for
failing
to
provide
details
of
sources
and
activities.
An
official
document
signed
by
Assistant
Commissioner
Rana
Waqas
Anwar,
who
also
has
registration
authority
in
GB,
stated
that
the
registration
of
NGOs
and
seminaries
will
be
cancelled
if
they
fail
to
submit
required
documents
by
the
second
week
of
February
this
year.
Tribune,
January
21,
2016.
Pakistan
'can
and
must'
do
more
against
terrorism,
says
US
President
Barack
Obama:
United
States
(US)
President
Barack
Obama
in
an
interview
with
the
Press
Trust
of
India
published
on
January
24
urged
Pakistan
to
show
it
is
"serious"
about
crushing
extremist
networks
operating
on
its
territory,
saying
the
latest
mass
killing
of
students
underlined
the
need
for
more
decisive
action.
He
said
that
the
crackdown
on
extremists
was
"the
right
policy"
but
was
quoted
as
saying
that
Pakistan
"can
and
must"
take
more
effective
action.
"Pakistan
has
an
opportunity
to
show
that
it
is
serious
about
delegitimising,
disrupting
and
dismantling
terrorist
networks,"
Obama
said,
adding,
"In
the
region
and
around
the
world,
there
must
be
zero
tolerance
for
safe
havens
and
terrorists
must
be
brought
to
justice."
PTI
News,
January
24,
2016.
SRI
LANKA
President
instructs
officials
to
complete
resettlement
of
44,015
remaining
IDPs
in
Northern
Province
within
six
months:
President
Maithripala
Sirisena
at
a
special
discussion
held
at
the
Presidential
Secretariat
on
January
20
instructed
the
relevant
officials
to
complete
the
resettlement
of
44,015
remaining
Internally
Displaced
persons
(IDPs)
in
the
Northern
Province
within
six
months.
The
President
issued
instructions
to
the
officials
to
complete
the
identification
of
the
lands
concerned
within
six
months.
The
development
of
infrastructure
in
the
North
and
other
facilities
for
the
people
was
also
discussed.
Colombo Page,
January
21,
2016.
International
community
need
not
worry
about
matters
of
state
interest,
says
President
Maithripala
Sirisena:
President
Maithripala
Sirisena
in
a
BBC
interview
on
January
21
said
that
the
international
community
need
not
worry
about
matters
of
state
interest.
He
said,
"Foreign
judges
and
prosecutors
should
not
be
involved
in
an
investigation
into
allegations
of
war
crimes.
I
believe
in
the
judicial
system
and
other
relevant
authorities
in
this
regard.
I
will
never
agree
to
international
involvement
in
this
matter.
We
have
more
than
enough
specialists,
experts
and
knowledgeable
people
in
our
country
to
solve
our
internal
issues."
Daily Mirror,
January
23,
2016.
The South
Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that
brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on
terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on
counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on
related economic, political, and social issues, in the South
Asian region.
SAIR is a project
of the Institute
for Conflict Management
and the
South
Asia Terrorism Portal.
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