SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 12, No. 5, August 5, 2013

AFGHANISTAN	INDIA	PAKISTAN

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Dangerous Gambit
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

In a suicide attack intended to target the Indian Consulate at Jalalabad, the capital of the Nangarhar Province of Afghanistan, nine Afghans, including at least eight children, were killed, and another 24 were wounded on August 3, 2013. The three attackers were also killed. All Indian officials in the Consulate were safe. Nangarhar Province Police Chief General Sharifullah Amin confirmed that the consulate was the intended target of the blast.

According to reports, when Afghan Security Forces (SFs) intercepted the attackers’ red Toyota Corolla at the first checkpoint leading to the Consulate, at a distance of about 15 to 20 metres, two terrorists wearing suicide jackets got off and opened fire on them. While one of the attackers was killed by the SFs, the second detonated his suicide jacket. Simultaneously, the third militant detonated the explosive-packed car. Deputy Police Chief of Nangarhar Province Masum Khan Hashimi disclosed, "It was a very heavy car bomb that totally destroyed the nearby market." Reports also said that the explosion was followed by gunfire which lasted for at least an hour.

This was the second attack on the Consulate at Jalalabad. On December 15, 2007, two bombs were lobbed into the Consulate. There was, however, no casualty or damage on that occasion. India has three other Consulates in Afghanistan – at Kandahar, Heart, and Mazar-e-Sharif.

The Consulate attacks fall into a larger pattern. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, a range of Indian interests in Afghanistan have been systematically targeted, including the Embassy in Kabul, other Consulates, and numerous developmental projects as well as people involved in these. Partial data indicates at least 13 such attacks, resulting in 103 fatalities since 2003. In the worst such attack, on July 7, 2008, a suicide attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul killed 66 persons. Five Indian Embassy personnel, including two senior diplomats – Political Counsellor V. Venkateswara Rao and Defence Adviser Brigadier Ravi Datt Mehta – and Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) staffers Ajai Pathaniya and Roop Singh, were killed in the attack.

The last attack on Indians in Afghanistan had taken place on October 11, 2010, when two Indian nationals were killed in a missile strike launched by Taliban terrorists on an Indian NGO's office in the Kunar Province of Afghanistan.

Though no group has taken responsibility for the latest (August 3) attack, direct involvement of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligent (ISI) as well as ISI-backed terrorist groups, primarily the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and the Haqqani Network is suspected. Both the LeT and the Haqqani Network operate out of Pakistan and have a strong presence in the eastern region of Afghanistan, which borders Pakistan and where the city of Jalalabad is situated. Though the Afghan Taliban, in a text message, denied its role in the attack, involvement of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), its Pakistan affiliate, has not been ruled out too. TTP also has significant presence in the region. However, past experiences as well as recent reports indicate the strongest possibility of the involvement of the Haqqani Network, the LeT, or both. 

ISI’s direct role in this latest attack is suggested in prior disclosures by the Afghanistan National Intelligence Agency spokesperson Lutfullah Mashal, on May 10, 2011, who had revealed that the ISI had hired two persons, identified as Sher Zamin and Khan Zamin, to kill the Indian Consul General of Jalalabad. The ISI’s role in the July 7, 2008, attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul had also been confirmed by former Afghan intelligence Director Amrullah Saleh, who, in a media interview published on January 17, 2011, disclosed: “We had sufficient evidence that it was ISI's plan. We knew they were trying to do something against the Indian Embassy.” Referring to ISI’s role in the Kabul attack, Mike Waltzin, a US official, had stated, in a TV interview, released on November 2, 2011, "The question was how high in the Pakistani state this went. And the answer was pretty high." An Indian news report, on August 3, 2013, the day of the Jalalabad attack, quoting official sources, had claimed that intercepts confirmed that the ISI paid half a million rupees to two Haqqani Network terrorists in Afghanistan to attack the Indian Envoy in Kabul, Amar Sinha, two weeks earlier. Indeed, security officials from India had visited the Kabul Embassy and the four Consulates thereafter to check preparedness. Significantly, Nangarhar Province Police Chief General Sharifullah Amin admitted that Police in Jalalabad were on an alert for such an attack.

A Pakistani security official has argued "why would we do such a thing when we are trying to improve economic ties with India." Nevertheless, in a veiled reference to Pakistan, India's External Affairs Ministry spokesman Syed Akbaruddin observed:

This attack has once again highlighted that the main threat to Afghanistan's security and stability stems from terrorism and the terror machine that continues to operate from beyond its borders. This was clearly an attack not just against India but an attack against the efforts to help the Afghan people overcome the tragic hardships they have endured due to several decades of war.

Akbaruddin asserted further that India would not be deterred by this attack and would continue to assist Afghanistan in its reconstruction and development efforts.

Afghanistan has repeatedly and openly blamed Pakistan for attacks on Indian targets in Afghanistan as well as for sustained activities detrimental to peace in Afghanistan. Warning the people behind the attack, Afghan Foreign Minister Zalmai Rassoul stated that those responsible for the Jalalabad assault “and their financial, ideological and logistical sponsors must realize that they cannot shake the close and strong bond of friendship and partnership between Afghanistan and India through terrorism.” Rassoul also informed his Indian Counterpart Salman Khurshid that "Afghanistan will leave no stone unturned to ensure the safety of Indian diplomatic personnel and the Afghan Government is determined to counter the efforts of those inimical to India's friendship with Afghanistan."

India’s age old relations with Afghanistan have been gaining in strength in recent times. Reaffirming these ties, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited Afghanistan in May 2011, and signed the historic Strategic Partnership Agreement between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and India. More recently, on July 30, 2013, the two nations signed a Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) on implementing 60 projects under the USD 300 million Small Development Projects (SDP) scheme, announced during Singh’s May 2011 visit. The first two phases of the SDP scheme are nearing completion. A framework MoU for operationalising the third phase was inked in November 2012 during Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s India visit. India has already spent $2 billion on reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan, since 2001, where it is currently involved in several developmental projects, including the construction of the Parliament building in Kabul, the Salma Dam and power transmission lines. Several major projects, including the strategically critical Delaram-Zaranj Highway connecting Kandahar and Herat, opening up a crucial trade route through Iran, have already been completed in Afghanistan by India.

Reports indicate that India is also stepping up the training of Afghan National Army (ANA) recruits and personnel in a major way. Afghanistan’s demand for supply of military equipment for the Afghan Forces is also under consideration in New Delhi.

Pakistan has been significantly shaken by the rising Indian presence in Afghanistan, the country over which Islamabad seeks complete control in the aftermath of the 2014 US drawdown, and appears hell bent on forcing India out. This latest attack is one such effort in that direction. Vivek Katju, India's former Ambassador to Afghanistan, notes, "Pakistan has always sought to limit India's activities in Afghanistan and for this purpose has used a number of instruments, including an attempt to circumscribe the activities of Indian representatives, including Indian personnel involved in assistance projects. There is a valid reason for concluding the involvement of Pakistani state actors in violent attacks on Indian interests in Afghanistan, including our Embassy." Similarly, Jawed Kohistani, a Kabul-based military and political analyst, opined, "Pakistan can't tolerate India's good relations and influence in Afghanistan. Through such attacks, it's trying to push India back, not only from Afghanistan but it also wants India to have less influence in Central Asia."

It is significant that the change of regime in Islamabad has no bearing whatsoever on the orientation of the ISI and the various terrorist proxies it supports and, despite a great deal of ‘talking about talks’ between India and Pakistan, there is little reason to believe that any significant shift in strategic orientation has occurred, to justify any optimism on this account. Indeed, as the uncertainties of the impending US drawdown escalate, it is inevitable that Pakistan’s targeting of the Indian presence in Afghanistan will intensify. It remains to be seen how New Delhi responds to protect not only its own interests, but, crucially, the fragile order that has been established in Kabul.

PAKISTAN

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Recurrent Audacity
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

In a daring attack, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorists stormed the Central Prison at Dera Ismail Khan in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Province on July 29, 2013, and freed around 253 prisoners, including 45 top terrorists. 24 persons, including 12 Policemen, five terrorists, four prisoners, and three civilians, were killed in the attack and the counter attack by Security Forces (SFs). On July 31, 2013, Police rearrested 47 of the absconding prisoners.

Claiming responsibility for the attack, the TTP’s newly appointed ‘central spokesman’ Shahidullah Shahid declared, “Some 150 Taliban, including 60 suicide bombers, attacked the Central Prison and managed to free about 300 prisoners. They were looking in particular for two ‘commanders’ – Sufi Mohammad and Shaikh Abdul Hakim. The TTP has achieved its targets and their operation was successful.” Sufi Mohammad and Shaikh Abdul Hakim were ‘commanders’ of the TTP Swat Chapter. A TTP ‘commander’ further claimed that the ‘operation’ was codenamed Freedom from Death, cost PKR 11.5 million, and took six months to plan.

Confirming TTP’s claim of success, Mushtaq Jadoon, the Commissioner of Dera Ismail Khan Town, disclosed, on August 1, 2013, that more than 30 known terrorists, including TTP ‘commanders’ Shaikh Abdul Hakim, Abdur Rasheed, Haji Ilyas and Mamoor, who managed to escape from the Prison, had been involved in terrorist attacks, sectarian violence and kidnappings for ransom. Another terrorist, identified as Walid Akbar, who was allegedly involved in the bombings that targeted the Ashura (Shia festival of mourning) procession in Dera Ismail Khan Town on November 24, 2012, when 25 persons were killed, also escaped in the prison breakout. The Commissioner noted that among the escaped prisoners, 127 had been convicted and another 126 were facing trial.

This is the second major jail break engineered by terrorists that Pakistan has witnessed. Hundreds of TTP terrorists had stormed the Central Prison at Bannu in the Bannu District of KP and had freed nearly 384 inmates on April 15, 2012. Adnan Rasheed, who had masterminded the December 14, 2003, assassination attempt on then President General Pervez Musharraf, was one of the inmates who had then managed to escape. According to reports, of the 384 escaped inmates, 21 were facing death sentences, 94 were charged with murder, 30 were charged in narcotics cases, and another 145 were under trial. Information about the remaining 94 prisoners is not available. KP Home Secretary Azam Khan stated, on April 22, 2012, that, out of 384 prisoners who had fled the prison, 108 had voluntarily returned while 35 others had been arrested by the law enforcement agencies. There is no further information about the 141 other escapees.

Both these incidents have many similarities. Intelligence agency had warned the Government three months prior to the Bannu attack with specific information regarding the impending threat. Similarly, on July 27, 2013, a letter, addressed to the Commissioner, Deputy Commissioner, Deputy Inspector General of Police, District Police Officer and the Superintendent of Dera Ismail Khan Central Jail, marked “secret” and “most immediate” by intelligence agencies, had stated, “It has been reliably learnt that miscreants namely Umer Khitab and his associates affiliated with Gandapur Group/TTP are planning to carry out terrorist attack against Central Jail – Dera Ismail Khan on the pattern similar to Bannu jailbreak in near future. According to information, miscreants are in possession of sketch/map of Jail and have reached in the vicinity of Dera Ismail Khan for this purpose.”

The warning was followed by another alert to the KP Government, on July 28, 2013, reiterating the danger of an attack by the group led by Umer Khitab. To underline the urgency of the matter, officers were again warned through text messages on July 28 to take appropriate security measures. As a consequence, civil and military officers visited the prison to work out a ‘security plan’. The KP Home Secretary followed up and, on July 29, 2013, just hours before the attack, the Commissioner held a meeting of all law-enforcement agencies and the civil administration to discuss the issue. Over 100 jail guards and 75 personnel of the Frontier Reserve Force were made available, backed by the Elite Police Force and armoured personnel carriers.

After the incident, however, KP Chief Minister Pervez Khattak claimed, on July 30, 2013, that “no prior intelligence regarding this incident was shared”.

Despite the forewarnings, preparations and re-enforcements, it is significant that the terrorists succeeded with a minimum of fatalities, principally, as in the Bannu attack, because of linkages between the SFs and the terrorists, which were an open secret in both incidents. Significantly, after the Bannu attack, the TTP had claimed, “We had maps of the area and we had complete maps and plans of the jail as well. All I have to say is we have people who support us in Bannu. It was with their support that this operation was successful.” After the Dera Ismail Khan attack, an unnamed security official noted, "It is very difficult to attack such a place without proper information or contacts. Some prisoners were suspected to have been in touch with the militants by mobile phones provided by sympathetic wardens. They are corrupt, lazy and unprofessional.” More worryingly, "Most policemen ran for their lives once the attack started, leaving their weapons behind… They even gave up their own guns, providing the attackers with more ammo."

Meanwhile, preliminary investigations in the July 29 attack have revealed that Operation Freedom from Death was masterminded by Adnan Rasheed, one of the terrorists who had escaped during the Bannu Central Prison attack. Adnan Rasheed is currently the ‘chief operational commander’ of Ansar al Aseer [Unit for (support of) Prisoners]. Significantly, the TTP and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) on February 6, 2013, jointly formed Ansar al Aseer, a special unit of fidayeen (suicide attackers) whose prime mission would be to carry out attacks on Prisons all over Pakistan to secure freedom for the incarcerated cadres.

The success of these operations depends largely on the fact that prisons in Pakistan have become virtual safe havens for terrorists. Arrested terrorists operate freely from within the Prisons, communicating with their organisations and cadres. For instance, the June 26, 2013, attack on Sindh High Court Judge Justice Maqbool Baqar near Burns Road in Karachi was planned from Karachi Central Prison. 10 persons were killed and another 15 were injured in the attack.

In a report titled "Reform of the prison system in Pakistan", released on October 12, 2011, the International Crisis Group (ICG) observed that the prison system in the country was "corrupt and dysfunctional”. Illegal detentions by the military, exacerbated local grievances, creating fertile ground for extremist recruitment, particularly in KP and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), the report added. Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar, an adviser to then Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani, after his visit to a Prison in the Haripur District of KP on June 8, 2011, observed that prisons had become breeding grounds for extremists, and outfits such as TTP and Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan [SSP, now known as Ahl-e-Sunnat-Wal-Jama’at (ASWJ)] had taken their “ideological campaign” to prisoners.

Interestingly, soon after Bannu attack, on April 24, 2012, the KP Government approved the purchase and immediate installation of cellular phone jammers, walk-through scanner gates and other equipment at all prisons in the Province to counter future attacks. Earlier, on April 25, 2012, Inspector General of Police (IGP) Muhammad Akbar Khan Hoti, noted, “We have requested the Army to take over four central jails ... in Peshawar, Bannu, Haripur and Dera Ismail Khan ... as we would easily be able to take care of the remaining 18 jails”. In addition, on July 3, 2012, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa authorities had decided to build an underground prison to hold terrorism suspects incarcerated throughout the Province. A few of these steps have been implemented. On August 4, 2012, the KP Government initiated work on the installation of cell phone signal jammers in six ‘sensitive’ prisons, including the jails in Peshawar, Timergara, Bannu, Kohat, Haripur and Dera Ismail Khan. It also allocated PKR 213.5 million in fiscal 2012-2013 for building the underground prison.

The Police in KP has a sanctioned strength of 78,320 and a population of about 22 million, yielding a fairly healthy ratio of 356 Policemen per 100,000 population. Unfortunately, much of the Force is compromised and ideologically ambivalent, yielding very low levels of efficiency and a security apparatus that remains deeply vulnerable to the complicit arrangements between Pakistan’s power establishment and the Islamist extremist formations that dominate much of the politics, and all of the terrorism, in the country.

BANGLADESH

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Momentous Ruling
S. Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

In a landmark ruling, the Dhaka High Court (HC) on August 1, 2013, declared the registration of Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), the biggest right-wing party of Bangladesh, illegal. A three-member Special Bench, including Justice M. Moazzam Husain, Justice M. Enayetur Rahim and Justice Quazi Reza-Ul Hoque, passed the judgment, accepting a writ petition challenging the legality of JeI's registration as a political party. The petition filed by the secretary general of the Bangladesh Tariqat Federation, Syed Rezaul Haque Chandpuri, and 24 other leaders of the Federation on January 25, 2009, noted that JeI was a religion-based political party and rejected the independence and sovereignty of Bangladesh. In its verdict, the Court observed: “By majority, rule is made absolute and registration given to Jamaat by the Election Commission is declared illegal and void. It is hereby declared illegal.”

Chief Election Commissioner, Kazi Rakibuddin Ahmad, on August 1, 2013, stated, “Let us get the certified copy of the verdict first. We will take a decision after scrutinising the verdict. After the execution of the verdict, anybody from the party [Jamaat] will be able to take part in elections individually. Nobody can take part in the polls from the party platform…”

The JeI was registered with the Election Commission (EC) on November 24, 2008, by making some provisional changes in its original charter. Significantly, the military-backed Caretaker Government (CG) had introduced the registration system before the December 29, 2008, parliamentary polls.

At the time of its registration as a political party, JeI had promised to further amend its Charter by January 24, 2010, in line with the 2008 Representation of the People Order (RPO), disallowing the registration of a communal outfit as a political party. However, JeI did not deliver on its pledge and, even after the expiry of the deadline, continued to ignore the EC’s repeated calls to amend its Charter.

According to the EC’s findings, a number of provisions in JeI’s Charter, including the call for establishing rule of Islam through organized efforts and the refusal to accept Parliament’s plenary power to enact laws, were not in conformity with the country’s Constitution and the RPO. Indeed, JeI was founded in undivided India in 1941 by its first ameer (chief), Maulana Abul A’la Maududi, with the goal of developing an Islamic community of devout believers guided by and subordinated to ‘Islamic law’ alone.

On July 24, 2013, moreover, the EC had finalised proposed amendment to the Electoral Rolls Act 2009, in order to drop convicts of any offence under the International Crimes (Tribunal) Act 1973 from the voters’ list.

Condemning and protesting the exclusion of war crimes’ convicts from the electoral rolls, a JeI delegation, in a written statement to the EC on July 28, 2013, declared, “According to electoral law 2009, every citizen reserves right to be included in the voter list who are 18 years old of the People's Republic of Bangladesh. But EC has been determined to remove the convicted Jamaat leaders from the voter list. This is contrary to human rights and constitution.” On the same day, JeI ‘acting secretary general’ Maulana Rafiqul Islam Khan alleged, “The government is trying to come to power again in the illegal way… The country will prevent strictly this kind of conspiracy.”

It is significant, here, that the International Crimes Tribunals (ICTs) have, thus far, indicted 12 high-profile political figures, including 10 JeI leaders and two Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leaders. While 11 persons had been indicted earlier, the JeI nayeb-e-ameer (deputy chief) and alleged founder of the infamous Razakar Bahini, A.K.M. Yusuf, was indicted by the ICT-2, on August 1, 2013, on 13-counts, including seven charges of genocide, one charge of looting and arson attacks on Hindu houses, and five charges of abduction, torture in confinement and murder in the Khulna region.

Thus far, six of the 12 persons indicted, all from the JeI, have been awarded sentence, four death penalties and two to extended terms of imprisonment. ICT-2 sentenced to death JeI leader Maulana Abul Kalam Azad alias Bachchu Razakar on January 21, 2013; ICT-2 awarded life imprisonment to JeI ‘assistant secretary general’ Abdul Quader Mollah on February 5, 2013; ICT-1 awarded death sentence to JeI nayeb-e-ameer Delwar Hossain Sayedee on February 28, 2013; ICT-2 handed over a death sentenced to JeI ‘assistant secretary general’ Muhammad Kamaruzzaman on May 9, 2013; ICT-1 sentenced to 90 years in prison former JeI ameer Ghulam Azam on July 15, 2013; and ICT-2 awarded the death sentence to JeI ‘secretary general’ Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mojaheed on July 17, 2013.

Meanwhile, protests, hartals (general strikes) and street violence, which have become the order of the day in Bangladesh, escalated after the HC verdict banning JeI. The JeI, its affiliates and supporting political formations, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) have been engaging in violent street mobilization since the constitution of the ICT on March 25, 2010, to investigate and prosecute suspects for the crimes committed during the Liberation War of 1971. Since the latest cycle of violence erupted, at least 30 persons have been injured. Moreover, according to partial data collected by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the country has recorded 139 fatalities, including 70 JeI and Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS, the students’ wing of JeI) cadres, 60 other civilians, and nine Security Force (SF) personnel (all data till August 2, 2013) since March 25, 2010, in street violence unleashed by the JeI-ICS combine backed by BNP, as well as other extremist groups such as Hefazat-e-Islam (HeI, 'Protectorate of Islam'), who are opposing the War Crimes trials.

However, as SAIR noted earlier, strong resistance is, now building up against the repeated hartals called by the Islamist combine.

Against this backdrop, there are apprehensions that the cycle of violence will escalate, even as JeI’s linkages with other dormant Islamist formations within and outside Bangladesh are restored. For instance, the Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), which came into the limelight after it carried out near simultaneous blasts in 63 out of 64 Districts of Bangladesh on August 17, 2005, has historical links with JeI. On July 13, 2010, the ‘chief’ of the JMB Maulana Saidur Rahman, who was arrested on May 26, 2010, had exposed the connections between JeI and JMB, revealing that he and several other members of the group had earlier been members of the JeI. Rahman is still under trial for the serial blast, though the group’s other leaders, including Abdur Rahman, Abdul Awal, Khaled Saifullah, Ataur Rahman and Hasan Al-Mamun, were executed on terrorism charges on March 30, 2007.

Similarly, linkages between the banned Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT) and JeI were exposed on July 11, 2010, when HuT ‘adviser’, Syed Golam Maola, arrested on July 8, 2010, told interrogators that JeI ‘Publicity Secretary’ Tasneem Alam coordinated a meeting in 2008 to discuss a joint campaign against the National Women’s Development Policy, 2008.

JeI links with Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B) were exposed on March 29, 2013, when Detective Branch (DB) personnel arrested 13 extremists, including former JeI leader Farid Uddin Ahammad, along with Afghan war veteran Farid Uddin Masud who was a leader of HuJI in Pakistan, from Dhaka city. Nazrul Islam Mollah, Deputy Commissioner of DB, on March 31, 2013, stated, “The detained militant leaders directly and indirectly support the anti-government movement and they were working against the war crimes trial. Farid Uddin Ahammad opted for reviving HuJI as there are similarities in the ideologies of the HuJI in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan.”

Deputy Leader of the Jatiya Sangsad (Parliament), Syeda Sajeda Chowdhury, warned against a extremist-terrorist revival on July 25, 2013: “They are trying to raise heads once again… they are conspiring again. We must get united as we’ll have to resist JeI… we’ll have to be tougher… we the freedom fighters will have to annihilate them in our lifetime. We’ll have to resist those who still dream of turning the country into Pakistan. We’ll never let the country slip into the hands of Pakistan. We’ll have to move forward with the Liberation War spirit.”

As the country’s General Elections approach, the Sheikh Hasina Wajed Government will be confronted with a rising challenge to stem escalating violence and to provide an environment of security and safety for an ordered exercise of the people’s democratic rights.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

INDIA

Assam

Jammu and Kashmir

Meghalaya

Left-wing Extremism

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Punjab

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)