South Asia Terrorism Portal
Sustained Assault Tushar Ranjan Mohanty Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On December 15, 2023, eight persons – three Policemen, including a sub-inspector, and five terrorists, including a suicide bomber – were killed during a clash, when terrorists tried to enter the District Police headquarter in Police Lines area of Tank Town (Tank District) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Two attackers were killed by Police while the third was cornered and blew himself up. A newly formed terrorist group, Ansarul Jihad, claimed responsibility for the attack.
On December 12, 2023, at least 23 Army soldiers were killed when a group of six suicide bombers attacked a Security Forces (SFs) complex in the Daraban area of Dera Ismail Khan District in KP. According to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), “the attempt to enter the post was effectively thwarted which forced the terrorists to ram an explosive-laden vehicle into the post, followed by a suicide bombing attack”. The resulting blasts led to the collapse of the building, causing multiple casualties. All six terrorists were killed. The Tehreek-i-Jihad Pakistan (TJP), an affiliate with Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), claimed responsibility for the attack.
In addition to these two targeted attacks on Security Establishments in December 2023, there have been several such attacks in the recent past, prominently including:
In addition to these major attacks specifically targeting Security establishments, terrorists have intensified their attacks against SFs deployed on the ground throughout country. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Pakistan has already recorded the highest number of SF fatalities, 517, in a year since 2013, when there were 665 such fatalities. After touching a recent low of 137 in 2019, SF fatalities have been on a continuous rise.
According to the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) report of October 1, 2013, the first nine months of 2023 reveal some alarming trends with regard to SF losses in the war against terrorism. 386 personnel — including 137 army personnel and 208 policemen — have lost their lives in the first nine months of 2023 in the fight against terrorism, largely in KP and Balochistan, an eight-year high.
The surge in SF fatalities in Pakistan can be traced back to the increase in power and influence of the Afghan Taliban in Afghanistan after the signing of the Doha Agreement of February 2020, and the subsequent return of the Taliban to power in Kabul in August 2021. Indeed, on November 8, 2023, caretaker Prime Minister (PM) Anwaarul Haq Kakar observed that there has been an increase in terrorist incidents in Pakistan since the interim Afghan Government came to power in 2021. Addressing the media in Islamabad, he asserted,
However, on the same day, Zabihullah Mujahid, the chief Taliban spokesman in Afghanistan, rejected Prime Minister Kakar's allegations, and argued that his Government was not responsible for maintaining peace in Pakistan, nor was it behind the insecurity in the neighbouring country. "They should address their domestic problems instead of blaming Afghanistan for their failure," Mujahid declared, "the Islamic Emirate does not allow anyone to use the territory of Afghanistan against Pakistan".
The attack on Pakistan’s SFs gained further momentum when the Afghan Taliban-initiated and guided talks between the TTP and the Pakistan Government collapsed on November 28, 2022m when TTP announced an end to the then seven month-long cease fire. In a statement released on Umar Media (TTP’s official website), TTP’s ‘Minister of Defence’ “ordered” TTP forces throughout Pakistan “to launch attacks anywhere in the country” in response to Pakistani military operations. The outfit claimed that it chose to end the ceasefire after “the Army and intelligence agencies continue to raid and attack” its forces, “And now our revenge attacks will continue in the whole country.”
Earlier, on November 8, 2023, during the Senate’s debate on acts of terrorism and the expulsion of illegal immigrants from Pakistan, the Leader of the House and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader Ishaq Dar blamed an understanding reached with Kabul in 2018, and the subsequent release of hardcore TTP terrorists, for the surge in acts of terrorism in the country. Speaking in the Senate, Dar argued that the PML-N government, soon after coming into power, had taken concrete steps against the menace of terrorism, which bore fruit, but regretted that terrorism reared its ugly head again after “a policy of U-turn” was adopted in 2018.
The haphazard approach to counter terrorism by successive Pakistan Administrations have given the terrorist outfits, especially the TTP, ample opportunities to target the country where it hurts most. With the Pakistan in economic and political turmoil, the Afghan Taliban backed TTP, as well as other terrorist and insurgent formations in the country, will find rising opportunities to inflict grievous harm on the increasingly fragile state and its institutions.
Chhattisgarh: Sukma: Disruptive Spike Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On December 11, 2023, two Security Force (SF) personnel were injured when an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) planted by Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres exploded where a joint team of Security Force (SF) personnel was patrolling to provide security to road construction work, at Saltong village under the Kistaram Police Station area of Sukma District.
On November 22, 2023, one District Reserve Guard (DRG) trooper, Roshan Nag, inadvertently stepped on an IED connection planted by Maoists, triggering the explosion that injured him, during an anti-Naxal [Left Wing Extremism, LWE] operation near Bainpalli village under Jagargunda Police Station limits in Sukma District.
On November 7, 2023, a commando of the Commando Battalion for Resolute Action (CoBRA), an elite unit of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), was injured in an IED blast triggered by CPI-Maoist cadres in Sukma District, as polling for the first phase of State Assembly elections got underway in the region. The incident occurred when the team was out on an area domination operation from the Tondamarka Camp towards Elmagunda village, to ensure security during polls.
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least five SF personnel have been injured in four separate incidents of explosion triggered by the Maoists in Sukma District since the beginning of 2023 (data till December 17). During the corresponding period in 2022, three SF personnel were injured in the district in two such incidents, and there were no more such incidents in the remaining period of the year.
Since the creation of the district on January 16, 2012, a total of 44 fatalities and 111 persons injured, have been registered in the SF category in 65 incidents of explosion in Sukma (data till December 17, 2023). A maximum of 18 fatalities and 25 persons injured in three such incidents, was reported in 2020.
Other parameters of violence also demonstrate the Maoists’ increased efforts to recover lost ground in the district.
A total of 699 Maoist-linked incidents have been recorded in the district since its formation, with a maximum number in 2016 (100) and the minimum in 2013 (23). This includes 64 incidents in the current year, as compared to 46 in 2022 (till December 17). The Maoists have executed 27 incidents of arson since the formation of the district, the maximum number in 2018 (eight) and the minimum in 2013 (one), while two incidents have been recorded in the current year. The Maoists also carried out 13 incidents of abduction, the maximum number in 2016 (five) and the minimum in 2014 and 2022 (one), while four incidents have already been recorded in the current year.
Maoist violence against civilians in Sukma also persists. According to SATP data, seven civilians have already been killed in the current year [data till December 17]. There were three civilian fatalities in the district during the corresponding period of 2022, and no more fatalities in this category thereafter, in the year. The district recorded a maximum of 33 civilian fatalities in 2013.
At least six Maoists have been killed in Sukma District since the beginning of 2023 (data till December 17). During the corresponding period in 2022, six Maoists had been killed in the district, and there were no more fatalities in this category in 2022.
On the other hand, SFs have lost three of their personnel in the current year so far (data till December 17), as against two in the corresponding period of 2022, and there were no more fatalities in this category thereafter in the remaining period of the year. SFs lost 42 personnel, the highest recorded in this category in the district for any year, in 2014 as well as in 2017.
In the fight between SFs and Maoists, the overall kill ratio (1:1.15) has been marginally in favour of SFs (193 SF personnel, 223 Maoists killed) since January 16, 2012. However, the kill ratio was in favour of the Maoists in 2012 (3:1), 2014 (3.23:1), 2015 (1.18:1), 2017 (3.5:1) and 2021 (1.73:1). Significantly, after reaching a peak of 42 SF fatalities in 2017 (as well as in 2014 at the same number), the fatalities came down to two in 2022. For the first time no fatality was recorded in the SF category in 2019. In the current year SFs lost three personnel, thus far (data till December 17, 2023).
According to a December 13, 2023, report, the CPI-Maoists organised a large-scale celebration on the Bijapur-Sukma border in Chhattisgarh, marking ‘People’s Liberation Guerrilla Army (PLGA) Week’. A video was released by the Maoists to the media regarding the celebration, which showed a large number of armed Maoists participating in the celebration, along with the villagers. Men and women, including a large group of Naxalites, were seen gathering in the border area of Bijapur and Sukma districts in Dandakaranya, taking out a rally, singing songs, and shouting slogans.
Sukma, spread over a geographical area of 5635.79 square kilometres, of which around 3,500 square kilometres (more than 75 per cent of its total area) is under forest cover, offers the Maoists distinct tactical advantages, allowing them to establish disruptive dominance over this difficult terrain. In addition, the district shares its borders with other Maoist-affected districts of the infamous ‘Bastar Division’ within the State – Bastar, Bijapur and Dantewada – to the north and west. Moreover, the Malkangiri District of Odisha to the east; and the Khammam District of Telangana to the South, are both Maoist affected, making Sukma a daunting challenge for SFs.
According to a March 6, 2023, report, under their social responsibility programmes, intended to prevent the youth from joining Maoist ranks, Police have established a school 'Police Ki Pathshala' in Sukma, where they teach students in their free time, to ensure basic education facilities for children in the conflict-hit area. Speaking on the effort, the then Sukma Superintendent of Police (SP), Sunil Sharma, disclosed,
Further, according to an October 23, 2023, report, 342 families from seven remote villages - Dabbakonta, Pidmel, Ekalguda, Duramangu, Tumbangu, Singanpad, and Dokpad - were electrified through the conventional source of power supply in Sukma District, nearly 25 years after their homes plunged into darkness because of damage to infrastructure by the Naxalites. On the development, Sukma SP Kiran Gangaram Chavan stated,
Though SFs consolidation in Sukma in particular, the state at large, as well as in the rest of the erstwhile Maoist-infested areas of the country is astounding, the increase in Maoist activities in the district in the current year, is cause for some concern. Indeed, Sukma is one of the last surviving Maoist bastions in the country, with substantial CPI-Maoist operational strength concentrated here. Continued operational pressure by the SFs, augmented by an intensive focus on development and administrative outreach, is still needed for further consolidation of the state control, and to neutralize the remaining threat to Sukma and Chhattisgarh.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia December 11-17, 2023
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
BANGLADESH
CHT
INDIA
Arunachal Pradesh
Chhattisgarh
Jharkhand
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Manipur
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
UNAMA report exposes mental health crisis among Afghan women: On December 12, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) in its quarterly reports on the status of Afghan women, exposed a significant fragility in the mental health of Afghan women, with 76 percent describing their mental health as very poor or poor. According to the report, mental disorders such as depression and insomnia lead to physical problems for women and girls, including fatigue, loss of appetite, and headaches. Hasht e Subh Daily, December 5, 2023.
India hosts anti-terror exercise of SCO member states: India on December 15, hosted a joint anti-terror exercise of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) nations with a broader aim of suppressing the use of the internet for terrorist activities. The exercise was carried out in New Delhi with the support of the executive committee of the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) of the SCO, an official readout said. Money Control, December 16, 2023.
Peace accord to be signed with ULFA-PTF soon, says Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma: On December 15, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said that the government is keeping a target to ink a peace accord with the pro-talk faction of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-PTF). Sarma said that the target is to sign a peace accord with ULFA-PTF within December or even possibly by January 2024. India Today NE, December 16, 2023.
Surrender weapons and join mainstream, says Union Home Minister Amit Shah to Kashmiri militantse: On December 11, asserting that many youths laid down arms and joined mainstream in the North East, Union Home Minister (UHM) Amit Shah asked the gun-wielding youth of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) to surrender weapons and join mainstream, and the Centre will welcome the move. He said the Centre has started a zero-terror and complete area-domination plan under which J&K will become terror-free. Daily Excelsior, December 12, 2023.
27 terrorists and 25 soldiers killed in separate incidents in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Twenty-three Army soldiers were killed when a group of six terrorists attacked a security forces' checkpost in the Daraban area of Dera Ismail Khan District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) on December 12. Tehreek-i-Jihad Pakistan (TJP), a new group affiliated with the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), claimed responsibility for the attack on the checkpost.
At least 17 terrorists were killed in an intelligence-based operation (IBO) in the Darazinda area of Dera Ismail Khan District of KP on December 12.
Four terrorists and two soldiers were killed in an IBO in the Kulachi area of Dera Ismail Khan District of KP on December 12. Dawn, December 13, 2023.
Pakistan urges United Nation panel probe into source of TTP weaponst: Pakistan on December 15 urged a United Nation (UN) panel to find out how the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is acquiring modern weaponry to carry out terrorist attacks in the country. Pakistan's Deputy Permanent Representative Usman Jadoon highlighted the alarming trend during a UN Security Council (UNSC) open debate on the threat posed by the diversion, illicit trafficking, and misuse of small arms and light weapons. Dawn, December 18, 2023.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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