In the worst terror
attack recorded in the state since December 2014, six persons
were killed in a suicide attack that commenced on February 21,
2016, and which was continuing at the time of writing. An unspecified
number of terrorists attacked a vehicle of Central Reserve Police
Force (CRPF) in the Sempora area of Pampore in Pulwama District
killing two personnel of the CRPF and injuring another nine. Subsequently,
the militants rushed into the Entrepreneurship Development Institute
(EDI) building nearby and took refuge there amid a heavy exchange
of gunfire with CRPF personnel. When a CRPF team headed by an
Assistant Commandant tried to enter the building, the Assistant
Commandant and two CRPF personnel were injured and a gardener
was killed in militant firing. Later, a large contingent of the
Army joined the operation and over 100 employees and trainees
who were trapped inside the EDI complex in three buildings were
evacuated. Three Army commandos, including two Captains, and a
militant were killed in the gunfight on February 22.
On December 5,
2014, a group of heavily armed militants had stormed into the
Army's 31 Field Regiment Ordinance Camp located at Mohra in the
Uri Sector of Baramulla District near the Line of Control (LoC).
A gun battle followed, in which one Lieutenant Colonel and seven
soldiers of the Army, as well as one Assistant Sub Inspector and
two constables of the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Police were
killed. Six militants were also killed in the operation. Six AK
rifles with 55 Magazines, two shotguns, two Night Vision Binoculars,
four Radio Sets, 32 Grenades, one Medical Kit and other materials
were recovered from the dead terrorists.
Through 2015, the
Security Forces (SFs) lost 41 personnel, while eliminating 113
terrorists, yielding a ratio of roughly 1:2.75. This was an improvement
over the success achieved in 2014, when SFs had eliminated 110
militants while losing 51 of their men, a ratio of approximately
1:2.15. In 2016 prior to the Pulwama incident (for which final
fatalities are still to be ascertained), two SF personnel have
lost their lives while 16 militants have been killed in SF operation,
yielding a ratio of 1:8, though this is likely to be significantly
reduced by the end of the Sempora operation.
Despite proclivities
to exaggerated threat perceptions and media over-reaction to the
most recent of terrorist outrages, operational successes of the
Forces on the ground have culminated in a quantifiable improvement
in the security environment in J&K, particularly for the civilian
population. Through 2015, the number of civilians killed stood
at 20, substantially lower than the 32 civilian fatalities recorded
in 2014. The last major attack (involving three of more fatalities)
targeting civilians was recorded on December 5, 2014, when militants
had exploded a grenade in the Tral town of Pulwama District, near
the Bus Stand, killing one person and injuring another 12. One
of the injured persons died later the same day, while another
succumbed to his injuries on December 12, 2014.
Further, according
to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, total
militancy-related fatalities in the State declined from 193 in
2014 to 174 in 2015. Thus, the declining trend in fatalities on
a year on year basis witnessed since 2001 was once again established
after a gap of two years. After a low of 117 in 2012, such fatalities
had increased to 181 in 2013 and 193 in 2014, raising concerns
over the consolidation
of peace in the State.
A number of other
parameters of violence have also registered declines. Though the
number of major incidents increased from 20 in 2014 to 24 in 2015,
the resultant fatalities declined from 102 to 92. Similarly, while
there was an increase in incidents of suicide attacks, from two
in 2014 to six in 2015, the resultant fatalities declined from
29 in 2014 to 20 in 2015. More importantly, while militants had
killed 19 people (five civilians and 14 SF personnel) in such
attacks in 2014, they lost 20 of their cadres while causing seven
deaths (four civilians and three SF personnel) in 2015. The number
of explosions and resultant fatalities, however, registered increase,
from 15 and six respectively in 2014 to 37 and 11 respectively
in 2015; it is significant, however, that the escalation in number
of explosions was not matched by a proportionate increase in fatalities.
Nevertheless, the number of Districts from where fatalities were
recorded increased from 13 in 2014 to 14 in 2015. Further, in
2015, only 16 of the State’s 22 Districts recorded any kind of
subversive activities (incidents like arrests, recovery of arms
and ammunition, explosions, etc., apart from killings) as against
18 Districts in 2014.
The improvement
in the situation also coincided with a relative decline in volatility
along the Line of Control and International Border with Pakistan.
A significant dip was registered in incidents of Cease Fire Agreement
(CFA) violations from across the border. According to India’s
Ministry of Defence (MoD), the number of CFA violations had increased
from 347 in 2013 to 583 in 2014. In 2015, till November 30, there
had been 400 ceasefire violations. According to SATP data, at
least one CFA violation was recorded in December 2015.
Significantly,
in a major development in September 2015, India’s Border Security
Force (BSF) and the Pakistan Rangers had agreed to honour the
November 2003 CFA for peace along the borders. At the end of four
days of talks in New Delhi on September 12, 2015, the BSF and
Rangers signed a 20-point ‘Joint Record of Discussion’ charting
the future roadmap of cooperation between the two border Forces.
Both sides also agreed to hold the next round of talks in first
half of 2016 in Pakistan. Though SATP has recorded no CFA violation
in 2016, thus far, between September 13 and December 31, 2015,
at least 60 CFA violations were recorded, of which 24 were reported
on October 26 alone in the Samba sector, though without any fatality.
However, following another round of talks between the Border Forces
of both sides on October 27, just another three CFA violations
were recorded.
In another indicator
of declining volatility at the border, the number of terrorists
who attempted infiltration registered a sharp decline. According
to the MoD, such numbers stood at 221 through 2014, and came down
to 92 in 2015 (till September 30, 2015). More importantly, out
of 221 militants who attempted to infiltrate in 2014, at least
65 managed to infiltrate, while 52 were killed and 104 were beaten
back. In 2015, only 17 out of 92 infiltrators were successful,
while 37 were killed and 38 were pushed back (data till September
30, 2015). According to partial data compiled by SATP, between
October 1 and December 31, 2015, another five incidents of infiltration
were recorded in which at least four militants were killed.
Threats from across
the border, however, persist. Lt. Gen. R.R. Nimbhorkar, General-Officer-Commanding
(GoC), White Knight Corps, disclosed, on November 19, 2015, that
over 600 militants were being trained in camps functional in Pakistan
administered Kashmir (PaK). He also stated that 35 to 36 militant
training camps were intact in PaK.
Within J&K,
over 200 militants were estimated to still be active. GoC of the
Army’s 15 Corps Lt. Gen. Satish Kumar Dua, stated, on January
28, 2016, “There are around 220 militants, over 200 militants
in Kashmir.” More worryingly, local recruitment appears to be
following an upward trend. Lt. Gen. Dua had observed, on October
25, 2015: “Due to the robust anti-infiltration grid in place at
the LoC in Kashmir, militants are being trained locally. Since
militants are finding it difficult to infiltrate, there is a ploy
from the other side to ensure local recruitment, and training
of militants internally.” However, no specific numbers were revealed.
Meanwhile, separatist
groups despite facing wider rejection from Kashmiris, continue
to incite small sections of the population to violent protests,
as in the past, to vitiate the increasingly peaceful environment.
According to partial data compiled by SATP, at least three protestors
were killed in alleged Police firing on violent demonstrations
in 2015, as against two in 2014. In 2016, two persons, including
a girl, have already been killed in one such incident.
On a positive note,
however, the Islamic State (IS, formerly, Islamic State of Iraq
and al Sham, also Daesh) has failed to make significant inroads
into J&K, as in the rest of the country. Northern Army Commander
Lt. Gen. D. S. Hooda confirmed on February 6, 2016, that IS did
not have a “very large footprint” in the State, adding, however,
“We need to study the situation properly. We need to make sure
that they do not make inroads.”
In a worrying pattern,
terrorists continued to find moles within the State Police Forces.
In one such incident, Naseer Ahmad Pandit of the 11th
Battalion of J&K Armed Police, guarding the house of then
Roads and Building Minister Altaf Bukhari, decamped with two AK
rifles and two magazines in the night of March 27, 2015. After
escaping, Pandit and three of his associates joined Hizb-ul-Mujahideen
(HM).
Though no other incident of this kind was reported in 2015, two
such cases have already been recorded in 2016. On January 14,
2016, Constable Shakoor Ahmad Perry escaped with four AK-47 rifles
from the Sub Divisional Police Officer’s (SDPO) office at Bijbehara
in Anantnag District, where he was posted as a personal security
officer to the SDPO Bijbehara, Irshad Ahmad Bhat. Three of these
rifles were subsequently recovered by the Police. Police arrested
two people in two separate incidents along with a rifle each while
another person surrendered with a third rifle. Shakoor, who had
armed these people, and is still at large "has obviously
joined militancy", Deputy Inspector General (DIG) of Police
South Kashmir Nitish Kumar disclosed.
There were also
several incidents of snatching of weapons from SF personnel. In
one such incident, on September 12, 2015, unidentified assailants
decamped with a service rifle of a Policeman posted outside the
District Court complex in Kulgam District. The pistol bearing
attackers sprayed chilli powder into the Policemen’s eyes before
snatching his rifle. Without specifying the numbers, DIG Nitish
Kumar stated that there were two reasons behind the number of
weapon-snatching incidents going up. “One is they (militants)
don’t have weapons and they can’t buy them in Kashmir because
the Government here doesn’t make weapons. Second is the strict
guard at the LoC.”
Political instability
following the death of incumbent Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad
Saeed and the imposition of Governor’s rule following a failure
to settle the terms of continuation of the ruling coalition of
the ideologically irreconcilable People’s Democratic Party and
Bharatiya Janata Party, have added to the potential for conflict
in J&K. While Governor’s rule has proven to be stabilizing
in the immediate wake of Saeed’s death, its indefinite continuance
is likely to provide motives to various political players to undermine
prevailing equations of power through brinkmanship. SFs in J&K
have done, and continue to do an exemplary job, but the State
has repeatedly been failed by its own political leadership, as
well as by the political executive in Delhi. If the incipient
and relative peace established over the past years, through tremendous
sacrifices by SFs, is to be consolidated, a measure of political
sagacity and stability is necessary, though it remains persistently
elusive.
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