South Asia Terrorism Portal
A Bloody and Uncertain Peace Guest Writer: Ameen Izzadeen Deputy Editor, The Sunday Times, Colombo The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) says that nothing but its proposal for an Interim Self-Governing Authority (ISGA) should be discussed at the negotiating table. The Government insists that parallel talks on a final solution should also be discussed. The stalemate continues amidst a fragile ceasefire and a tottering economy, the revival of which largely depends on the resumption of the talks.
The situation is so desperate that even a minor LTTE compromise is hailed as a major breakthrough. The talks between the United National Front government of Ranil Wickremesinghe and the LTTE broke down in April last year with the rebels accusing the then government of not honouring its pledges with regard to rehabilitation and reconstruction in the war-ravaged North and East. Many an attempt was made to kick-start or push-start the peace process, but the LTTE held on to its position. A breakthrough came when, in October 2003, the LTTE made its ISGA proposals known. Though the proposals were too suicidal for the Government to adopt in toto, it agreed to discuss them. Both the government and the LTTE were set for talks, but then President Chandrika Kumaratunga struck. She took over three key portfolios, including Defence, setting off a political crisis which culminated in the dissolution of Parliament and a new coalition Government being elected to office. Since then, much blood has flowed under the bridge and many an attempt has been washed away by political undercurrents - with a split in the LTTE further complicating the search for peace. Six months after the election victory that failed to give the new United People's Freedom Alliance Government a clear parliamentary majority, the Government is faced with a situation where, on the one hand, it has to cope with a factional war, a fragile ceasefire and a faltering peace process and, on the other, has to grapple with a worsening economic crisis and plummeting public confidence. With the world oil prices reaching 55 US dollars, the Government is wilting under public pressure created by the spiralling cost of living. It is the economic factor that is pushing the Government to brush aside threats from its coalition partner, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), and go for peace talks and celebrate this as a major breakthrough to win international aid. Whether the talks end in success or failure does not matter. What matters is the resumption of talks - a sort of publicity photo-op with the government and the LTTE delegations shaking hands. That, the Government believes, will pave the way for the international community to release at least a part of the aid it promised at the Tokyo conference in 2003. This appears to be the strategy of the Government, which now enjoys a majority in Parliament after the Ceylon Workers Congress, a kingmaker party representing the estate population, aligned itself with the ruling coalition. The President appears to be playing her cards close to the chest and placing her aces one by one on the table. She wants to tell her southern constituency that hers is not a policy of 'peace at any cost' while sending a message to the LTTE that she is willing to compromise. Her first card was the formation of the National Council for Peace and Reconciliation (NCPR) - which was supposed to be an all-party body, but could not be called that because the main opposition - the United National Party (UNP), the Tamil National Alliance and the Buddhist monks' party the Jathika Hela Urumaya - boycotted the inauguration on October 4. The LTTE dismissed the NCPR as a time-buying gimmick or a delaying tactic. However, the President was unfazed. She breathed an air of success or a sigh of relief because the hardline JVP made its presence felt in a big way in the new peace body. The once-bitten-twice-shy UNP, which appeared to have adopted a policy of mistrust towards Kumaratunga after she went back on her promise and threw it out of office, however, pledged to support the Government's peace moves. Addressing the inaugural session of the NCPR, the President had reiterated her Government's commitment to end the 20-year-old conflict by peaceful means and invited the LTTE to resume talks on establishing a federal state. She said her Government was ready to negotiate on the setting up of the ISGA - but there should be parallel talks on a final deal. "We require a commitment from the LTTE that the interim administration as well as the final solution would be based on the Oslo declaration, which stipulates that a federal solution should be sought within a united Sri Lanka," she said, giving an indication of the shape of her Government's counterproposals, about which very little is known. Government spokesman Mangala Samaraweera would only say that the counterproposals are ready and waiting. But those in the know say the Government's counterproposals are nothing but a position paper that spells out what the LTTE wants and the Government's response to such demands. With the LTTE insisting on its pound of flesh over its ISGA proposal even after the President's NCPR speech, the Government was disappointed, if not desperate. In the eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation that ensued, the first to blink was the LTTE. The Government was jubilant when LTTE 'spokesman', Daya Master, told Associated Press that the LTTE was willing to discuss the Government's counter proposals. The Colombo-based media ran banner headlines, describing the LTTE's softening of its stance as a major breakthrough. In Government quarters this was welcomed as a dramatic breakthrough. But the jubilation was short-lived when the LTTE's 'political wing' leader S. P. Thamilselvan, who is visiting European nations on a study tour of forms of federalism, made a hurried call to protest the remarks Daya Master had made and resumed the eyeball game. This time the LTTE wants the Government to blink. Although, the LTTE has gone back to its nothing-but-ISGA position, the Daya Master-slip-of-the-tongue remark gave an indication that the rebel leadership was ready to hear any Government response or proposal when ISGA was being discussed. This was exactly what Norway's special peace envoy, Erik Solheim, has conveyed to the Government. Solheim said the LTTE's demand for ISGA was not a "take it or leave it position." It is, however, a demand it insists should be discussed. One UPFA source said: "Agreeing to talk on the ISGA does not mean the Government accepts the proposal in toto. It only means the Government will give ear to what the LTTE has to say on the proposals and give its own position. What is good and acceptable will be given. That again would have to be within the parameters spelt out by President Kumaratunga." It is against this backdrop that the Government is now planning to come out with another strategy, brushing aside fears that the ISGA would lead to a separate state and threats by the JVP to the President that it would leave the Government if the talks are based only on ISGA. President Kumaratunga is expected to consult the NCPR this week and outline an elaborate policy framework to take the peace process forward. She is likely to spell out her formula in an address to the nation either before she leaves for India early next month or after her return. Adding strength to her position is the international support for the peace process and the world community's pressure on the LTTE. During meetings with officials of Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and the International Commission of Jurists, the touring Thamilselvan delegation was pushed to the ropes and forced to defend the LTTE when these groups urged the LTTE to stop political killings and child recruitment. But the LTTE has mastered the art of weathering international criticism. It has proved it is a 'good boy' because it has not resumed the war. It has also mastered the art of violating the ceasefire agreement and still claiming that it is committed to the truce. In effect, it is holding the Government to ransom and incrementally obtaining what it wants. The UPFA Government, which accused the previous UNF regime of conceding too much to the LTTE, is now forced to follow its predecessor's policies. The so-called prisoner swap which took place in Trincomalee last week was a case in point. The two homeguards who were arrested and detained by the LTTE were released only after the Government acceded to the LTTE's demands and released ten Tiger cadres from a Government jail. The de jure position is that the detainees have been released on bail - the Government court acted in the case of the LTTE detainees and the LTTE court in the case of the homeguards. A flip side of this episode brings forth a silver lining to the dark cloud, demonstrating that both the Government and the LTTE can do business together. But what is complicating the issue is the challenge from the 'Colonel' Karuna group, which has struck an alliance with the Eelam National Democratic Liberal Front, a group, which was once said to have been backed by the Indian intelligence. The challenge to the LTTE also came from T. Anandasangaree, the sidelined vice president of the Tamil United Liberation Front. Anandasanagaree, in an open letter to Prabhakaran, urged the Tiger leader to stop the fratricidal war and to be pragmatic with regard to his ISGA proposals. The Karuna group, which in a recent statement announced its entry into mainstream politics, called on the Tamil people to unite to defeat Prabhakaran's dictatorship and terrorism. It may be the case of one tiger accusing the other tiger of cannibalism, while both are cannibals. In any case, the situation in the East, especially in the Batticaloa and Ampara districts, has been worsening. With neither faction of the LTTE yet able to hold sway, the tit-for-tat political killings continue. The LTTE is perturbed that the Karuna group is emerging as a strong force with substantial public support in the East. Irked by this reality, the Tiger leadership has asked the Tamil National Alliance Members of Parliament in the two districts to intensify their campaign aimed at drawing the people away from the Karuna faction. The LTTE knows that its bargaining power will be weakened if it loses control of the East.
BANGLADESH
INDIA
Jammu & Kashmir
Left-wing extremism
Manipur
Nagaland
Tripura
Total (INDIA)
NEPAL
PAKISTAN
SRI LANKA
Islamist extremists behind attack on British envoy in Sylhet, claims Scotland Yard: The British investigative agency, Scotland Yard, suspects the involvement of Islamist extremist groups in the May 21, 2004, grenade attack on the British High Commissioner, Anwar Choudhury, at Hazrat Shahjalal Shrine in Sylhet, in which the envoy was injured and three others were killed. In a report submitted to the Bangladesh Crime Investigation Department on October 18, the Scotland Yard said the grenade used in the attack was of the same model as those used in the attack on the Opposition Awami League rally in Dhaka on August 21, 2004. The Hindu, October 20, 2004
National Conference senior leadership escapes IED blast in Jammu and Kashmir: National Conference (NC) president, Omar Abdullah, the former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister, Farooq Abdullah, and a number of other senior leaders of the party had a narrow escape when an Improvised Explosive Device (IED), planted by unidentified terrorists, exploded injuring seven people in Anantnag town of south Kashmir on October 24. The NC top leadership was going to attend the Rasm-e-Chaharum of the former Minister, Safdar Ali Beg, who had been killed by unidentified terrorists in Sarnal locality of Anantnag earlier this week. The IED, apparently planted in a sand stack at the entrance of the graveyard at Sarnal, exploded at 1140 hours (IST), seconds after Omar Abdullah alighted from his car and was heading for Safdar Ali Beg's tomb. Daily Excelsior, The Hindu, October 25, 2004. Peace deal finalised between Mizoram government and the BNLF: Following the eleventh round of peace talks held last week, the Government of Mizoram has reportedly finalised a peace deal with the Bru National Liberation Front (BNLF). A senior government official was quoted having said "The peace formula covers repatriation of the refugees as well as proper rehabilitation of both refugees and BNLF cadres." A formal peace agreement to this effect would be signed by both the parties once the Union Government sanctions the funds required to implement the peace package. North East Tribune, October 24, 2004. United Liberation Front of Asom ready for unconditional talks: The United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) has reportedly said it is ready for unconditional talks with the Union Government. The offer of talks has come through Assamese writer and Jnanpith award winner Indira Goswami, who has offered to mediate between the Centre and the terrorist outfit. NDTV, October 24, 2004 Former National Conference minister Safdar Ali Beg shot dead in Jammu and Kashmir: Senior National Conference (NC) leader and former minister, Safdar Ali Beg, was shot dead by unidentified terrorists at a shop, yards away from his residence in Sarnal locality of Anantnag town on October 21. Two terrorists shot at the politician minutes after he had come out of the local mosque after performing his afternoon prayers. Beg's personal security officer was also critically injured in the attack. Safdar Beg had been Minister of State for Revenue in Dr. Farooq Abdullah's National Conference Government. Daily Excelsior, October 22, 2004 Union Government asks Assam Chief Minister to hold talks with NDFB: On October 21, the Union Government asked the Assam Government to go ahead with its plans to hold talks with the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) and said it would participate in due course. The response came after the Assam Chief Minister, Tarun Gogoi, met the Union Home Minister, Shivraj Patil, in New Delhi and informed him of the NDFB's offer of talks. The NDFB made a unilateral announcement of ceasefire on October 15. The Hindu, Sentinel Assam, October 22, 2004
Military operation launched in South Waziristan to capture Abdullah Mahsud: Hundreds of troops backed by helicopter gunships launched an operation on October 20 in Spinkai Raghzai area in South Waziristan to capture Abdullah Mahsud, a former Guantanamo Bay prisoner and the alleged mastermind behind the kidnapping of Chinese engineers. Lt. Gen. Safdar Hussain, the Peshawar corps commander, stated that the area under attack since October 20 night was Abdullah's political and military base. Daily Times, October 21, 2004 171 soldiers killed in Wana operation, says Corps Commander Lt. Gen. Safdar Hussain: On October 19, Corps Commander Peshawar Lt. Gen. Safdar Hussain stated that the Pakistan Army and the Frontier Corps have lost 171 troops during the military operations in South Waziristan, while 246 terrorists, including more than 100 foreign terrorists, were also killed. At his maiden press conference, Lt. Gen. Safdar Hussain said 579 militants were arrested in 35 military operations launched to-date. He ruled out the presence of Osama bin Laden or any other senior Al Qaeda figure in South Waziristan. However he felt that there were credible reports about the presence of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan leader Tahir Yuldash in the area. www.dawn.com, Daily Times, October 20, 2004 Terrorist outfits barred from collecting donations during Holy Month: The Federal Government has directed the Provincial Governments to take special measures for curbing the collection of Zakat, Fitrana and other kind of donations by any proscribed or Jihadi outfit during the Holy month of Ramazan. The report said that special instructions were issued to the provinces not to allow Millat-e-Islamia Pakistan (erstwhile Sipah-e-Sahaba), Islami Tehrik Pakistan (erstwhile Tehreek-e-Jaferia), Khuddamul Islam (erstwhile Jaish-e-Mohammad), Jamaat-ul-Fuqra and others banned outfits to collect donations during Ramazanand on the occasion of Eid-ul-Fitr. The News , October 19, 2004
Government stops military operations against Maoists during festival period: The Nepal Government has responded to the temporary cease-fire announcement made by the Maoist insurgents from October 20 to 28 and has decided not to launch any offensive against them during the period. The Government spokesperson and Minister for Information and Communications, Mohammed Mohsin said, "There will be no offensive from our side but if there is any sabotage against us and if any one tries to disrupt peace, the Government will be on high alert (to maintain peace)." Nepal News, The Himalayan Times, October 19, 2004
Former Tamil National Alliance Member of Parliament shot dead in Batticaloa: Suspected Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) cadres shot dead former Tamil National Alliance (TNA) Member of Parliament, Kingsley Rajanayagam, in the Kalviyankadu area in Batticaloa town on October 19 evening. His personal bodyguard, police Constable Hemantha Dissanayake, was also injured in the attack. Rajanayagam had earlier resigned his Parliament seat from Batticaloa reportedly due to LTTE threats owing to his loyalty to breakaway LTTE leader 'Colonel' Karuna. Daily News, October 20,2004
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