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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 47, May 23, 2016

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

INDIA
MYANMAR
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Border Perils
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

The Myanmar operation will leave behind no lasting legacy beyond the sorry spectacle of people in high office claiming undeserved victories, seeking undeserved honours… This was a relatively minor operation, and will have only transient tactical and psychological significance. An operational success has been imposed, and the rebels, who have till now had almost undisturbed sanctuary in Myanmar, will lose their sense of impunity. Over time, however, they will adapt and draw deeper into the jungles and take fuller precautions against discovery and neutralization, unless the present operation is followed up by a more sustained and enveloping campaign.

"Covert should remain Covert"

On May 22, 2016, at least six personnel of 29 Assam Rifles (AR), including one Junior Commissioned Officer (JCO), were killed, and another seven personnel were injured in an ambush laid by militants at Hengshi village, near the India-Myanmar border, in the Chakpikarong tehsil (revenue unit) of Chandel District in Manipur. An official Army statement disclosed,
A convoy of Assam Rifles while returning after assessing a landslide area in Holingjang to the Battalion headquarters location at Joupi [a village in Chakpikarong tehsil] in Chandel District of South Manipur had an encounter with suspected valley based insurgent groups… In the ensuing fire fight, one Junior Commissioned Officer and five soldiers were martyred. The troops retaliated but the insurgents managed to get away under thick forest cover and bad weather.

The militants had triggered an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) before opening fire on the AR convoy. The militants also took away four AK-47 rifles, one light machine gun, one INSAS rifle and ammunition from the soldiers. Search operations are still going on at the time of writing.

Just under a year earlier, on June 4, 2015, 18 Army personnel had been killed and another 11 were injured when militants ambushed a convoy of 46 troopers of the 6 Dogra Regiment of the Army at Moltuk village, near the India-Myanmar border, in the Khengjoy tehsil of the Chandel District. Initiating the attack with an IED, the militants subsequently opened fire.

Evidently these incidents are very similar in nature. Moreover, the distance between the two villages, Hengshi and Moltuk, where the attacks were carried out is just about 30 kilometers, falling under the same District, Chandel. The only difference was that, this time, the 29 AR was in the line of fire and not the Army’s 6 Dogra Regiment. AR had replaced 6 Dogra in the area in the aftermath of the June 4, 2015, attack.

Significantly, just five days after the June 4, 2015, attack, the Indian Army had carried out ‘surgical operations’ inside Myanmar on June 9, 2015, to target militant groups believed to be ‘responsible’ for the killing. According to reports, nearly 20 insurgents were killed in two different camps. Union Minister of State for Information and Broadcasting Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore later on June 10, 2015, boasted, "Our PM [Prime Minister] ordered hot pursuit in which two camps were completely annihilated. While the Army carried out the strike, helicopters were on stand-by… It needed an equally strong leader to take such a bold decision. We will carry out such attacks". Indeed, without naming Pakistan, Rathore held out the ‘surgical operation’ as a warning to ‘others’, declaring, “Friendship and zero tolerance will go hand in hand. This is a beginning. India is strong. This message should go to everyone". Again on June 14, 2015, he reiterated, "It was a much-needed decision that was taken by the Prime Minister. This decision was extremely bold in nature. And it involved our Special Forces crossing the border and going deep into another country." Rathore also chose #56inchRocks as hash-tag in his tweets to send out a message that the action was possible only because of the PM Narendra Modi’s courage [the Prime Minister had boasted, in the past of his “56 inch chest”]. Similarly, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar had declared on June 11, 2015, “A simple action against insurgents has changed the mindset of the full security scenario in the country... Those who fear India’s new posture have started reacting.”

Pakistan dismissed these statements with contempt, and there was much backtracking in by New Delhi as well, as Myanmar denied that any operation had been executed on its soil. National Security Advisor Ajit Doval spent much of his subsequent trip to Naypyidaw soothing ruffled feathers of the Myanmarese authorities. Crucially, subsequent disclosures made it apparent that the ‘insurgents’ killed in the ‘surgical strike’ had nothing to do with the June 4 attack, and that the operational capacities of the rebels remained completely unaffected. This relatively minor operation, which was given a completely disproportionate ‘spin’ by Raisina Hill, had no impact whatsoever on the security scenario in the region.

The May 22, 2016, incident is, indeed, a manifestation of this, and of the fact that the political leadership has failed to learn any lessons. Indeed, according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, at least 38 fatalities, including 24 militants, nine civilians and five Security Force (SF) personnel, have been reported from the region along India-Myanmar border across three Indian States, between June 5, 2015, and May 21, 2016. Chandel District in particular accounted for 10 of these fatalities, including four SF personnel, four militants and two civilians.

The region along the India-Myanmar border, consequently, remains volatile and insurgent capacities across the border, intact. According to partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management, between January 1, 2000, and May 22, 2016, there have been at least 686 fatalities, including 126 civilians, 129 SF personnel and 431 militants, in 10 Districts, spread across four Northeast Indian States [Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Mizoram, and  Nagaland], along the India-Myanmar border. In terms of such fatalities, Chandel District is the worst affected, accounting for 311 fatalities (54 civilians, 67 SF personnel and 190 militants), followed by Churachandpur with 237 fatalities (60 civilians, 38 SF personnel and 139 militants); Ukhrul, with 159 fatalities (40 civilians, 40 SF personnel and 79 militants). The other border Districts which witnessed fatalities include Mon (120), Tirap (72), Tuensang (59), Phek (35), Changlang (23), Longding (4) and Khipre two. There are 15 Districts along the India-Myanmar border in the region, including Phek, Tuensang, Mon and Khipre Districts in Nagaland; Tirap, Changlang, Anjaw and Longding in Arunachal Pradesh; Chandel, Ukhrul and Churachandpur in Manipur; and Champhai, Serchhip, Lunglei and Chhimtuipui in Mizoram. Champhai, Serchhip, Lunglei, Anjaw and Chhimtuipui have not recorded any such fatality so far.

CorCom [Coordination Committee], a conglomerate of six Manipur Valley-based militant outfits – the Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP), Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL), People's Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), its Progressive faction (PREPAK-Pro), Revolutionary People's Front (RPF, the political wing of the People’s Liberation Army– PLA), and United National Liberation Front (UNLF) – has taken responsibility for the May 22, 2016, attack. CorCom was formed in July 2011 with seven members but, in a Press Release issued on February 1, 2013, stated that it had expelled the United Peoples Party of Kangleipak (UPPK) from its membership. CorCom as a group has been involved in at least 32 killings – three civilians, 22 SF personnel and seven militants – since its formation in July 2011. 

The June 4, 2015, attack had been claimed by the United National Liberation Front of Western South East Asia (UNLFWESEA). The Khaplang faction of the National Socialist Council for Nagaland (NSCN-K) had joined hands with three of the most active terrorist formations in the Northeast: the United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I); IK Songbijit faction of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-IKS); and the Kamtapur Liberation Organisation (KLO), to form UNLFWESEA. Worryingly, CorCom is reported to have extended ‘moral support’ to the Front and agreed to take part in joint operations against ‘common enemies’. The latest May 22 incident suggests the consolidation of this common purpose.

There has been visible – indeed, dramatic – improvement in the insurgency situation in the Northeast. Among several factors that contributed was better coordination with the Bangladesh Government which helped India in its fight against the rebel groups operating in the Northeast region by destroying their sanctuaries inside Bangladesh and handing over several of the top insurgent leaders. Earlier, Bhutan had played a similar positive role. Myanmar remains the last sanctuary for the Northeast rebels. It is imperative for New Delhi to abandon its jingoism and take Myanmar on board to fight the residual menace which continues to disturb the border between the two countries and threatens the stability of India’s northeastern region.

NEPAL
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Chronic Crises
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On May 17, 2016, 13 persons, including 11 cadres of the Federal Alliance, an alliance of 30 ethnic and Madhesi parties formed on July 31, 2015, and two Policemen, were injured when Police clashed with the demonstrators outside Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli’s residence at Baluwatar in the national capital, Kathmandu. On May 15 and May 16, the Alliance had picketed Singha Durbar (Lion's Palace, which houses the Prime Minister’s and other Government offices) as part of its protest program to pressure the Government to meet their demands, which include provisions for proportional representation and rewriting of the newly promulgated Constitution of September 20, 2015.

Nevertheless, the Federal Alliance announced its protest program on May 18, 2016, for the next 12 days, including mass rallies and public gatherings in different places in the Kathmandu Valley and some other cities. According to the program, the Alliance had organized stage demonstrations at Patan (Lalitpur District) on May 19, at Baneshwar (Sankhuwasabha District) on May 20, and at Swayambhu (Kathmandu) on May 21. Likewise, a mass gathering at Chabahil (Kathmandu) on May 22, at Kirtipur (Kathmandu) on May 23, at Bhaktapur District on May 24, at Balaju (Kathmandu) on May 25, at Kalanki (Kathmandu) on May 26, at Thimi (Bhaktapur District) on May 27 and at Kathmandu Durbar Square on May 28, had also been scheduled. The Alliance also declared that protest rallies and public gatherings would be held in Birgunj (Parsa District) and Pokhara (Kaski District) respectively on May 29 and May 30.

Earlier, on April 15, 2016, Sadbhawana Party (SP) Chairman Rajendra Mahato had said that there was no option for them but to launch another movement to force the Government and the major political parties to address the demands of Madhesi forces. Similarly, on April 18, 2016, Federal Socialist Forum-Nepal (FSF-N) Chairman Upendra Yadav had noted, "The Constitution is discriminatory and it does not address the feelings of Madhesi, indigenous and ethnic communities, thus, it is necessary for all ethnic communities from Madhes to mountains to participate in the next uprising." Later, on April 27, 2016, the Federal Alliance submitted a 26-point memorandum to Prime Minister Oli, stating that the new Constitution was promulgated on the basis of numerical strength and the use of coercive power of the whip by the political parties, and violated the mandate of the past movements of indigenous nationalities, Madhesis, Khas, Dalits, Muslims, OBCs and minority communities.

Nepal has, in fact, been going through a cycle of new agitations since July 2015. Cadres of the United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF), comprising the Upendra Yadav-led FSF-N, the Mahantha Thakur-led Tarai Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP), the Rajendra Mahato-led SP and the Mahendra Raya Yadav-led Tarai Madhes Sadbhawana Party (TMSP), commenced the agitation on July 1, 2015, by burning the copies of the preliminary draft of the new Constitution in capital Kathmandu, as it failed to incorporate their demands. UDMF is a constituent of the subsequently formed Federal Alliance. The Madhesi protestors are demanding redrawing of the proposed boundaries of Provinces in the Himalayan nation under the new Constitution, and the restoration of rights granted to Madhesis in the Interim Constitution of 2007 which, they claim, the new Constitution has snatched away.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), since July 1, 2015, at least 61 persons, including 41 civilians and 20 Security Force (SF) personnel, have been killed and another 728, including 561 civilians and 167 SF personnel, injured, in violent protests across the Terai region and its adjoining Districts (data till May 22, 2016).

Significantly, a Cabinet meeting held on May 20, 2016, decided to call the Federal Alliance for talks, assuring ‘utmost flexibility’ in discussions with the protesting parties. The response of the Federal Alliance is awaited. Earlier on May 8, 2016, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Kamal Thapa, who heads the Government talks’ team, had invited the protesting UDMF for talks. The UDMF, however, responded that talks under the present circumstances were irrelevant. There is no indication that this situation has changed manifestly. Indeed, the violent confrontations between Federal Alliance protestors and the Police are likely to have hardened the resolve of the Madhesi and minority communities to push their confrontation with the Government even further.

Amidst continuing protests by the Madhesis against the Government, the Government itself has been confronted by an existential crisis. The Nepali Congress (NC), the main opposition party, on May 4, 2016, held talks with leaders of the second-largest ruling coalition partner, the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M), at the Legislature-Parliament building in New Baneshwor, Kathmandu, to woo away the aggrieved Maoists from the coalition. UCPN-M Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal accused the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) of failing to resolve major political issues, including implementation of the new Constitution through dialogue, and to carry out the reconstruction of Nepal (in the wake of the devastating earthquakes of April 25 and May 12, 2015), despite his party drawing attention to these issues repeatedly. The UCPN-M’s real grievance was, however, the issue of ‘transitional justice’ relating to ‘crimes against humanity’ during the armed conflict between 1996 and 2006. To give further confidence to the Maoists to come out of the Government the NC, on the same day, held a separate meeting with leaders of the agitating UDMF, at the same venue. In the meeting the discussion was about toppling of the Oli-led Government. The UDMF leaders expressed their readiness to find an alternative to PM Oli, and agreed to support a new Government to be formed under the NC’s initiative, but also said they would remain outside the Government until their concerns were addressed.

However, realising the imminent threat to the Government, CPN-UML, the senior partner in the ruling alliance, signed a pre-emptive nine-point agreement with the UCPN-M on May 5, 2016. The fact that five of the nine points in the agreement address issues of transitional justice show just how worried the Maoists are about having to answer for the crimes they committed between 1996 and 2006. One of the points of the agreement oblige CPN-UML and the Maoists to amend the laws on transitional justice within 15 days, so that they ‘reflect the spirit of the Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA)’ — an euphemism for immunity from prosecution. The two leaders also agreed to register the ownership of the lands that were transacted (often forcibly) on the strength of household papers during the conflict era on the basis of those same documents. They also agreed to immediately initiate the process to withdraw or give clemency on insurgency-era cases and other ‘politically-motivated’ cases filed on various occasions.

Meanwhile, reacting against the nine-point agreement, Suman Adhikari, Chairman, and Ram Bhandari, General Secretary, of Conflict Victims Common Platform Nepal (CVCP), in a statement on May 6, 2016, declared, “We are shocked by the major two ruling parties’ intent to interfere in the current transitional justice process and withdraw the cases from the court and grant clemency to the accused.” Further, on May 17, 2016, members of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) and Commission of Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Persons (CIEDP) observed that the recent nine-point agreement has shattered thousands of conflict-victims’ hopes for justice. In fact, TRC had started receiving complaints from conflict victims from April 17, 2016, and had already received 7,789 complaints from across the country by May 18, 2016. On May 19, 2016, TRC started preliminary investigation on complaints received. TRC is scheduled to start detailed investigations on the complaints from June 15, 2016.

Interestingly, in a joint convention in Kathmandu on May 19, 2016, 10 of the fragments of the original Communist Party of Nepal – Maoist, the UCPN-M led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, CPN-Revolutionary Maoist led by Ram Bahadur Thapa, CPN-Maoist led by Matrika Yadav, Revolutionary Communist Party led by Mani Thapa, Gauravshali Party leader Jayapuri Gharti and some leaders from Netra Bikram Chand-led CPN-Maoist and  the Baburam Bhattarai-led Naya Shakti (New Force), have united to form a party under Dahal, the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist Centre). Addressing the function, Dahal claimed that the unity of Maoist parties would ensure that the TRC and CIEDP would work as per the CPA, creating a path that would lead the nation towards socialism. Earlier, on April 21, 2016, four Maoist parties, including the Mohan Baidhya-led CPN-Revolutionary Maoist, CPN (Maoist) led by Matrika Yadav and Revolutionary Communist Party Nepal led by Mani Chandra Thapa and UCPN-M, had issued a joint statement calling the Government to scrap conflict-era cases, claiming that such cases violated the CPA.

The Oli-led Government is evidently confronted by a multiplicity of increasingly irreducible crises. The first of these, of course, is the internal crisis within the Government, with UCPN-M flirting with other parties to push its agenda – crucially including the disruption of the transitional justice process. This pits the government directly against those who demand a fair trial for atrocities inflicted during the conflict, and justice for victims. Equally, the Government and major parties have demonstrated extreme intransigence on the issue of accommodating the aspirations of the Madhesis and other minority communities in the constitutional scheme. These two issues, if unresolved, have the potential of pushing Nepal over the brink into another protracted cycle of mass disorders, threatening the tenuous peace that has held for nearly a decade now.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
May 16 - 22, 2016

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Islamist Terrorism

1
0
1
2

INDIA

 

Jammu and Kashmir

1
1
8
10

Manipur

0
6
0
6

Left-Wing Extremism

 

Bihar

3
0
0
3

Chhattisgarh

0
1
3
4

Jharkhand

1
0
0
1

Maharashtra

1
0
0
1

Total (INDIA)

6
8
11
25

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

1
1
1
3

KP

1
2
3
6

Punjab

0
0
14
14

Sindh

4
2
0
6

Total (PAKISTAN)

6
5
18
29
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


BANGLADESH

National and international quarters were now hatching conspiracy against country, says Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan: Referring to recent spate of targeted killings, Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan on May 16 said that national and international quarters were now hatching a conspiracy against the country. "The peace-loving people of the country are against extremism and terrorism and that is why big terror attacks are not taking place here," the Home Minister said after a meeting with a 15-member US delegation led by US State Department's Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs William E Todd at the secretariat. New Age, May 17, 2016.


INDIA

Six Assam Rifles personnel killed in Manipur: On May 22, 2016, at least six personnel of 29 Assam Rifles (AR), including one Junior Commissioned Officer (JCO), were killed, and another seven personnel were injured in an ambush laid by militants at Hengshi village, near the India-Myanmar border, in the Chakpikarong tehsil (revenue unit) of Chandel District in Manipur. The militants had triggered an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) before opening fire on the AR convoy. The militants also took away four AK-47 rifles, one light machine gun, one INSAS rifle and ammunition from the soldiers. Times of India, May 23, 2016.

Five JeM militants including 'commander' killed in Jammu and Kashmir: Five militants of Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) including a 'commander' were killed in a fierce gun battle at village Drugmulla in Kupwara District on May 21 while two Army personnel were injured. Sources said that they were part of Fidayeen squad and had recently infiltrated into Kashmir and one of their members was killed in Zunreshi forests of Kupwara on May 16 while the others fled under the cover of darkness. Daily Excelsior, May 22, 2016.

IS releases new video showing Kalyan youth Fahad Shaikh, says report: The Islamic State (IS) on May 19 released a new 22-minute Arabic-language documentary featuring Indian jihadist, which seems to be their first official interview of the Kalyan youth, Fahad Shaikh who fled to Syria two years ago, where they joined the terror group. According to media reports, this one is the first propaganda video uploaded by the IS with special content focusing jihad in India and South Asia. India, May 21, 2016.

170 LWEs surrendered in two years, says Odisha Government: 170 cadres of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) have surrendered in past two years, said the Odisha Government on May 16. Furnishing a reply in the State Assembly, Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik said highest 65 LWEs had laid down their arms in Koraput while 42 surrendered in Malkangiri District during 2014-15 and 2015-16. As many as 42 LWEs returned to mainstream in Sundargarh District during the period. According to the Chief Minister, the State Government had come out with first surrender policy in June 2006 and the same had been made attractive in 2014. The Hindu, May 17, 2016.


NEPAL

Federal Alliance announces protest programs for next 12 days: The Federal Alliance on May 18 announced protest programs for the next 12 days. It decided to organize mass rallies and programs of public gathering in different places of Kathmandu valley and some other cities.

Meanwhile, Minister for Information and Communications Sherdhan Rai on May 18 said that the Kathmandu-centric protest by Federal Alliance is pointless. Minister Rai claimed that there was no public participation in the protest, adding that the Alliance would be left with no option than holding talks at the last. "The Constitution was not promulgated by someone's mercy. The agitators are for pushing the country toward another civil war by hindering implementation of the Constitution," he claimed. My Republica, May 19, 2016.

People's Government and people's courts would be revived as new Constitution was promulgated without consulting his party, says CPN-Maoist General Secretary Netra Bikram Chand: General Secretary of Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist) Netra Bikram Chand on May 20 said his party would revive the people's Government and people's courts at the local level as the new Constitution was promulgated without consulting his party. He also claimed that Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli was plotting to frame Maoist leaders and cadres on false charges. He said some Maoist leaders had deviated from the original Maoist ideology and therefore the leaders, including Pushpa Kamal Dahal, were not real Maoists. The Himalayan Times, May 21, 2016.


PAKISTAN

Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour killed in US drone strike in Balochistan: Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour was killed in a United States (US) drone strike in the Kuchaki area of Naushki District, over 200 kilometers off Quetta, on May 21. According to sources, Mansour entered Pakistan from Iran at Zero Point in Taftan, a town in Chagai District, which shares border with Iran, and hit by US drone while traveling in a rented car to take him to Quetta. The crime scene is identified as Kuchaki in Nushki District. Meanwhile, Afghan Government Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah confirmed the incident, saying, "Taliban leader Akhtar Mansour was killed in a drone strike in Quetta, Pakistan, at 04:30 pm yesterday. His car was attacked in Dahl Bandin." Afghanistan's main intelligence service, the National Directorate for Security (NDS) also confirmed Mansour's death. US President Barack Obama also confirmed on May 23 that Mansour was killed. Tribune, May 22, 2016. Reuters, May 23, 2016.


SRILANKA

Government is committed to strengthen national reconciliation to prevent another war, says President Maithripala Sirisena: President Maithripala Sirisena on May 18 said that the Government is committed to strengthen the national reconciliation in order to prevent another war. The President said "The new government is now working for fulfilling the responsibility to prevent another war in the country through strengthening of the national reconciliation. It is not an easy task to unite the hearts of the people while fulfilling of the responsibilities of a post-conflict era after ending the war physically. Politicians, war heroes and the people of the entire country should get together to strengthen the reconciliation process." Colombo Page, May 19, 2016.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

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K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni


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