SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 12, No. 29, January 20, 2014

INDIA

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Jharkhand: Passive Defence
Fakir Mohan Pradhan
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

A five-day anti-Naxal (Left Wing Extremism), multi-State offensive, led by Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), was executed between December 27-31, 2013. During the operation, CRPF and Jharkhand Police troops neutralized a Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) arms manufacturing unit in the Simdega District of Jharkhand. The factory had reportedly been set up two months earlier, and had lathe machines, which were procured from Kolkata [West Bengal]. The Forces also discovered that the factory was being run on electricity from generator sets looted from BSNL towers in the vicinity. Further, Security Forces (SFs) were alarmed to find a "unique dual switch mechanism" that could be activated by remote control and also serve as a timer device to detonate explosions.

In a separate incident, a Maoists cadre, Ramesh Munda, was killed and another, Lalmohan Munda, was arrested in an encounter with SFs in Lobed village in the Adki Block of Khunti District on January 14, 2014.

SF efforts notwithstanding, Jharkhand has maintained the dubious distinction of recording highest number of total fatalities, as well as of civilian fatalities, among Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-affected States for the second consecutive year in 2013, even as the CPI-Maoist appeared to be losing some momentum in the State. According to data released by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), Jharkhand witnessed a total of 162 fatalities - 120 civilians, 30 SFs and 12 Naxals – in LWE-related incidents in Jharkhand in 2013, while Chhattisgarh recorded a total of 148 fatalities - 66 civilians, 44 SFs and 38 Naxals – in the year.

Though Maoist fatalities in direct encounters with SFs were low in Jharkhand in 2013, the total number of Left Wing Extremists killed, if fratricidal gunfights are taken into account, was much higher. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) data base, at least 57 Maoists were killed in Jharkhand through 2013.

SF losses remained at roughly the same level over the past four years, with 30 killed in 2013, despite an overall decline in Maoist violence since 2011, suggesting that the Maoists have retained their capabilities in Jharkhand.

The Maoists sent shockwaves across the country at the very beginning of 2013, when they killed nine Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel and one Jharkhand Jaguars trooper in an ambush near Amawatikar village in Latehar District, Jharkhand, on January 7, 2013, and then surgically inserted Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) inside the abdomen of two dead CRPF troopers. They kept the momentum going till the middle of the year with another four major attacks (each involving three or more fatalities) -- two against SFs, one against civilians and one against the People’s Liberation Front of India (PLFI), a splinter group of the CPI-Maoist. However, Maoists suffered heavily in at least two major reverses – one at the hand of Tritiya Prstuti Committee (TPC) and another at the hands of the SFs. In a third incident, the Police claimed that eight Maoists were killed, but not a single body was recovered.

Two points of significance emerge: one, the Maoists were not involved in any major incident in Jharkhand after July 2013; and two their fratricidal war against TPC and PLFI has intensified further.

A range of other parameters suggest that, though the Maoists could not sustain their early pace through 2013, they have been able to retain their overall capacities in the State. 

While the number of LWE incidents remained comparable between 2011 and 2012, there was a 20 per cent decline in 2013. Similarly, the number of attacks on the SFs (including landmines) had remained comparable in 2011 and 2012, but the decline was sharp, from 21 to 14, between 2012 and 2013. The number of arms snatched also declined from 30 to just 8. The number of training camps organised fell from 12 in 2012 to nine in 2013. Significantly, the number of Jan Adalats ('people's courts, Kangaroo courts organised by the Maoists) almost doubled, from 23 in 2012 to 41 in 2013. The number of encounters with the Police also increased from 43 to 55, though the number of arrests declined marginally, from 377 to 332.  Maoist attacks on economic targets also remained low:

According to partial data compiled by SATP, incidents of killing (civilian, SF and Naxal) were reported from 16 Districts in 2013 – Latehar (33), Gumla (26), Khunti (18), Simdega (9), West Singhbhum (9) Chatra (12), Dumka (6), Garhwa (3), Hazaribagh (3), Seraikela-Kharswan (3), Giridih (2), Ranchi (2), Bokaro (1), East Singhbhum (1), Palamu (1) and Ramgarh (1). In 2012 incidents of killing were recorded in 14 Districts.

Among other patterns of violence recorded by SATP, the Maoists engaged in at least 12 incidents of arson in six Districts – Latehar (3), Palamu (3), Hazaribagh (3), Bokaro (1) Jamtara (1) and Lohardaga (1). LWE groups were also involved in eight incidents of abduction through 2013, and triggered at least eight landmine blasts in the State. Jharkhand recorded at eight major incidents in 2013, as against six such incidents in 2012.

An analysis of Maoist violence, as well as of overground and underground activities, through 2013, indicates that a total of 16 Districts, including Bokaro, Chatra, Dumka, East Singhbhum, Garhwa, Giridih, Gumla, Hazaribagh, Khunti, Palamu, Ranchi, Seraikela-Kharswan, Latehar, Ramgarh, Simdega, and West Singhbhum, remain highly affected; Dhanbad and Lohardaga are moderately affected; and Koderma, Deoghar and Godda are marginally affected by LWE.

A peculiar feature of LWE violence in Jharkhand is that various splinter groups (which have broken away from the CPI-Maoist) continue to operate, in addition to the CPI-Maoist. The most prominent among these groups include the PLFI, TPC, and Jharkhand Prastuti Committee (JPC). These splinter groups are strongly antagonist to the CPI-Maoist, though they are also engaged in fratricidal struggles among themselves. The most significant clashes have occurred between TPC and the Maoists and the Maoists and PLFI. In the first five months of 2013, the Maoist share in LWE violence stood at 51 per cent, PLFI at 29 per cent, and TPC at 15 per cent. This was a continuation of earlier trends in this regard, and while disaggregated data is not currently available, there is no evidence to suggest that the trend changed significantly in the latter half of 2013.

SFs have planned and carried out large operations especially intended to corner CPI-Maoist Central Committee member Deo Kumar Singh alias Arvindji, who is leading the Maoist operations in Jharkhand, but without success. However, as a by product, the relentless pursuit, in one instance, probably led to a Maoist group taking shelter in a TPC dominated area, resulting in a gunfight between the two in which 10 Maoists, including some senior cadres, were killed. Other than that, there are some significant catches - 11 according to SATP data - in terms of arrests of ‘commanders’ or senior level cadres of the CPI-Maoist, and nine others from PLFI.

Meanwhile, the Saranda Development Plan, a project that was intended to showcase the ‘clear, hold and develop’ policy, implementing major projects to benefit local populations after the Saranda Forest area had been freed from Maoist dominance in August 2011, continues to be implemented at snail’s pace. This is despite the fact that Union Rural Development Minister Jairam Ramesh is personally monitoring the progress of the Plan. The first Integrated Development Centre (IDC) was inaugurated at Digha on April 26, 2013, by Ramesh, after several deadlines had been missed. People vented their ire at Ramesh at the inauguration function, complaining about several issues, including poor road construction quality, illegal felling of trees, unemployment, lack of livelihood and problems in getting promised old age pensions. Ramesh did get a feeling of the seriousness of the problem, but could only say, “I know, I know. Your complaints are genuine. Please don’t lose hope. I will ensure roads come up by the year-end.”

Even as the implementation of development plans move at snail’s pace, a key environment ministry panel, Forest Advisory Committee, the statutory forest clearance panel, has been extraordinarily 'proactive' in recommending that mining be allowed in the Saranda Forests, lending some credence to the allegations that the motive behind the preceding security operations was to give secure access to mining companies to the iron ore rich area. Significantly, when Ramesh was Environment Minister, he had argued that only the Government owned Steel Authority of India Ltd. (SAIL) would be allowed to mine the area. However, private companies, like JSW Steel, and Jindal Power and Steel and Rungta Mines, have now been given clearances for mining in the Saranda area.     

The Jharkhand Police Population ratio has improved from 167 Policemen per 100,000 population on December 31, 2011, to 178 as on December 31, 2012, well above the national average of 138, though it remains substantially below the level needed to deal with the State’s complex problems of law and order administration, and of security. At least 22 battalions of CRPF are also currently deployed in the State.

Maoists in Jharkhand seem to be hanging on, despite some pressure from the SFs. The marginal decline in violence as well as in the visible strength of Maoists in 2013 cannot provide extraordinary solace to the state, particularly in view of the fact that the Maoists appear to have been avoiding any direct confrontation with the SFs during the second half of the year. There are also apprehensions that the state may slow down operations against the Maoists, especially after Hemant Soren of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) formed his Government in July 2013. Soren has expressed the hope that Jharkhand's LWE problem would end within five year, though he appears to have placed his principal reliance on 'dialogue' with the rebels. The JMM has a past history of deep ambivalence towards the Maoists under the Chief Ministership of Hemant Soren's father, Shibu Soren, and this significantly enabled the consolidation of the Maoists in the State, even as it hobbled SF operations. It remains to be seen whether Hemant Soren will follow in his father's footsteps in this regard; preliminary statements and indications suggest that this may well be so.

INDIA

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Arunachal Pradesh: Outside Intrusions
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On January 2, 2014, two cadres of the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) were killed in an encounter with Assam Rifles (AR) personnel at Holam village in the Khonsa area of Arunachal's Tirap District. Two civilians were also killed in the cross-fire. Security Force (SF) personnel later recovered two AK-47s, a sniper rifle and an M-16 rifle from the incident site. The operation had been launched following information that some militants were hiding in the village.

This latest incident was the continuance of an established trend of periodic intrusions and violence in largely peaceful Arunachal Pradesh. On November 17, 2013, for instance, AR personnel shot dead an NSCN-IM militant at Kharsang village in Changlang District. The deceased was identified as 'lance corporal' Aron Gonmei from Tamenglong District [Manipur]. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least four militants [three from NSCN and one from United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I)] were killed in the State in three encounters through 2013. One encounter with SFs in 2012 had resulted in the death of one ULFA militant. Another three militants [two from NSCN-Khaplang (NSCN-K) and one from NSCN-IM] were killed in 2012 in factional clashes between NSCN-IM and NSCN-K.

2013 also saw the arrest of 22 militants, including 11 from NSCN-K, six from NSCN-IM, three from ULFA-I, two from the IK Songbijit faction of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-IKS). There were 31 arrests during 2012, including 21 United People's Democratic Front (UPDF) cadres, three ULFA-I cadres, three Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres, two NSCN-IM cadres, and a cadre each of NSCN-K and the Naga National Council (NNC). In one incident, SFs arrested NSCN-K ‘revenue secretary’ and ‘intelligence head of Lohit District’ Hongloan Lowakhao alias Paul, along with four of his accomplices, on December 22, 2013.

Significantly, there were no civilian or SF fatalities during 2013. The last civilian killing in a terrorism-related incident in Arunachal Pradesh had taken place over six years ago, on November 28, 2007, when one civilian was killed and another 14 were injured in a bomb attack by ULFA militants at Bordumsa in the Changlang District. Similarly, the last incident in which an SF trooper was killed was also recorded in 2007, on October 25, when three AR personnel and a civilian were killed and eight persons were injured in an ambush by NSCN-IM militants in a remote jungle in the Tirap District.

Arunachal had recorded a total of 63 fatalities, including 40 civilians, 12 SFs and 11 militants, in 2001, the peak year of militancy in the State.

Clearly, the peace established in Arunachal was further consolidated through 2013. Nevertheless, a considerable militant presence in the State is also evident. Apart from the groups already mentioned, other outfits present included the National Liberation Council of Tani Land (NLCT), United Liberation Council of Arunachal (UCLA), Arunachal Dragon Force (ADF), Arunachal Naga Liberation Front (ANLF) and Tai-Khamti Liberation Front (TKLF).

Though the various militant groups in Arunachal have not attacked civilians or SFs over the past years, factional fights among the two most prominent outfits, NSCN-IM and NSCN-K, to secure dominance in certain areas - particularly the Districts of Tirap, Changlang and Longding, which border Nagaland and have provided them safe sanctuaries - have the potential of endangering future peace. These groups are also engaged in significant acts of extortion which largely go unreported. The All Arunachal Pradesh Student’s Union (AAPSU) President, Kamta Lapung, in a statement issued on April 3, 2013, thus alleged that the NSCN factions were thriving on ‘extortion’ and soc-called 'donation' money’. Confirming this, outgoing Arunachal Pradesh Governor, General (Retd.) J. J. Singh, on May 23, 2013, thus observed:

The people of three eastern Arunachal Districts - Tirap, Changlang and Longding - are living in fear due to the presence of cadres of the two NSCN factions [NSCN-K, NSCN-IM] in the area, who resort to kidnapping, extortion and factional feuds. The problem of Arunachal is directly linked with that of Nagaland. The Centre should immediately resolve the Naga issue to bring peace and normalcy to these districts.

Significantly, these three Districts are part of NSCN-IM’s projected State of Nagalim (Greater Nagaland). Since the signing of the 1997 Ceasefire Agreement between the Centre and the NSCN-IM, both parties have held over 80 rounds of talks, without any solution. The latest round of talks took place on November 21, 2013, where it was decided that contentious issues need further and extensive discussion.

Apart from these two Naga outfits, ULFA-I has strong presence in the region. The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) in a statement issued on November 4, 2013, noted, "In Arunachal Pradesh, ULFA-I cadres use the Lohit, Changlang and Tirap Districts for infiltration and exfiltration to Myanmar, where the base camps of the outfit are located. The outfit uses these areas extensively for temporary transit camps while on the move as well as to escape counter insurgency operations in Assam."

Meanwhile, another emerging concern is the presence of CPI-Maoist cadres in the State. The Union Minister of State for Home Affairs, R. P. N. Singh, on March 20, 2013, disclosed that movements of CPI-Maoist cadres had been reported from the Lohit and Lower Dibang Valley Districts of Arunachal Pradesh. According to the SATP database, at least five Maoists have been arrested from the State – three in 2012 (all from Lohit) and two in 2011 (all from Lohit). However, no Maoist was arrested in the State in 2013.

The presence of the 53,000 strong Chakma and Hajong refugees in Arunachal Pradesh as well as the influx of other foreigners, have also raised concerns among locals from time to time. Indeed, an AAPSU memorandum on November 30, 2013, urged President Pranab Mukherjee to deport Chakma-Hajong refugees and all other foreign nationals from Arunachal Pradesh. The memorandum read:

The illegal settlement of Chakma and Hajong refugees has resulted in marginalization of indigenous tribes like Noctes, Wangchow, Khamtis, Singphos and Tsangas in the eastern-most part of Arunachal, while in the western part of the state, the Tibetans, Bhutanese and Nepalese are exerting their dominance over the indigenous Monpas, Sherdukpens, Akas and Mijis. In central part of the State, there is a floating population of Bangladeshis which has created tension among Nyishi, Adi, Galo, Apatani and Tagin tribes.

Realising the challenges posed by these residual concerns, the Union Government extended the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act-1958 (AFSPA) in the State on November 4, 2013, for another six months. AFSPA is being enforced in Districts of Tirap, Changlang and Longding (carved out of the undivided Tirap District) since September 17, 1991.

The State has a thin Police presence, with 9,627 State Policeman in total though the very low population of the State raises the Police-population ratio to an extraordinary 764 Policemen per 100,000 populations, compared to the national average of 138. However, as compared to a national average of 52.9 Policemen per 100 square kilometres, Arunachal has just 11.5 Policemen per 100 square kilometres. The problem is further compounded by the very poor physical infrastructure of the State. With an area of over 83,743 square kilometres, the State has a road density of just 14.96 kilometres per 100 kilometre area, as against a national average of 42 kilometres/100 square kilometres. The State also lacks a civil airport and a rail network, though a skeletal helicopter service to some of its major towns has now been established. Union Minister for Road Transport and Highways C.P. Joshi, on February 5, 2013, disclosed that only 100 kilometres of the 2,400-kilometres long Trans-Arunachal Highway announced under the Prime Minister’s package for Arunachal Pradesh had been completed so far. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had announced the project in the capital Itanagar on January 31, 2008.

Meanwhile, the State Government is pressing for the creation of two new Autonomous District Councils (ADCs) in the bordering Districts of the State. The State Assembly had passed two resolutions in 2004 and 2007 for the creation of the Patkai ADC covering Tirap and Changlang Districts (including the subsequently created Longding District); and the Mon ADC, covering Tawang and West Kameng Districts. This move has raised some concerns among security experts. An unnamed senior Army Officer, on December 23, 2013, warned that “more money could mean more extortion, besides development”. ADCs directly receive funds earmarked for them by the Centre. This step, moreover, may be a prelude to demands for formation of more such ADCs and the rise of militant groups around this issue. Notably, the UPDF, led by its 'commander-in-chief' Sumona Munglang, had emerged in the State in 2011, with the objective of creating an ADC out of nine administrative circles in Lohit and Changlang Districts. The group, however, suffered a setback when several of its cadres, along with Sumona Munglang, were arrested in 2012.

The political classes have often failed to initiate pragmatic steps, taking long term repercussions into account. Arunachal Pradesh is not only afflicted by the overflow of insurgencies from its neighbourhood, it is also under significant threat from China, which has laid claims to much of its territory. Accelerated development of the State's infrastructure and economic profile is necessary, not only to provide a better life to the people of Arunachal Pradesh, but also to secure a durable peace and the national interest.

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

Islamist Terrorism

INDIA

Assam

Jammu and Kashmir

Manipur

Nagaland

Left-wing Extremism

Andhra Pradesh

Jharkhand

Total (INDIA)

PAKISTAN

Balochistan

FATA

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Punjab

Sindh

Total (PAKISTAN)