Faustian Bargains | A New Dark Age for Women | Assam: Uncertain Drift | South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR), Vol. No. 12.10
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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 12, No. 10, September 9, 2013

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal


ASSESSMENT

PAKISTAN
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Faustian Bargains
Ambreen Agha
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

The brouhaha over the impending ‘peace talks’ between Nawaz Sharif led Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Government and the Hakimullah Mehsud led Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) seems to have subsided for some time now. On August 31, 2013, TTP ‘spokesperson’ Shahidullah Shahid denied any level of talks with the Government, adding that no contacts had been made between the two sides, and that no offer of talks had been received. In an official acknowledgment, referring to reports of talks between the two sides, Federal Minister for Interior Nisar Ali Khan Chaudhry confirmed, on September 1, 2013, “These reports are baseless as the decision to talk with the TTP would be taken during the All Parties’ Conference (APC) after taking political parties into confidence.”

Interestingly, these two statements are in stark contrast to what Federal Information Minister Pervaiz Rashid had stated on August 30, 2013: “Headway has been made with respect to informal contacts between the Government and the Taliban... The process for evolving peace formulas has been started so that chaos and violence could be eliminated which has cost us thousands of lives.” And unnamed senior TTP leader confirmed, on the same day, that initial contacts between the two sides had been established and that the talks encompassed a wide range of issues, including prevention of sectarian violence and snapping of ties with al Qaeda and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ).

Since the days of his campaign for the May 2013 General Elections, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has expressed the desire to hold talks with the terrorist leadership. Not surprisingly, on August 19, 2013, in his first televised address to the nation after taking office on June 5, 2013, Sharif called for dialogue with the terrorist formations, primarily the TTP, to end bloodshed. He also warned that his Government would use force to stamp out terrorism from the country. The Hakimullah Mehsud-led TTP rejected that offer on August 24, 2013, and expelled the ‘chief’ of TTP’s Punjab Chapter (also known as the Punjabi Taliban) Asmatullah Muawiya who had welcomed the offer of talks by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on August 20, 2013. Muawiya had, however, rejected the move, declaring that the Punjabi Taliban is a separate group and it has its own decision-making body to decide leadership and other matters. Clearly, the TTP was not willing to engage in any level of talks with the Government unless it had secured its own perceived ‘interests’, even at the cost of internal bickering.

Even earlier, on February 3, 2013, TTP had expressed willingness to hold talks with the Government, but on two preconditions: the release of seven of its leaders and guarantees by leaders of PML-N, Jama’at-e-Ulema Islam-Fazlur Rehman (JUI-F) and Jama’at-e-Islami (JeI) that the exercise would be fruitful.  In a video message released in Peshawar, TTP’s then ‘spokesman’ Ehsanullah Ehsan declared, "The release of Muslim Khan, Maulvi Omar and five other TTP leaders is a prerequisite for talks, while former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, Maulana Fazlur Rehman and Syed Munawar Hasan should be the guarantors." He added that the release of Muslim Khan and Maulvi Omar was essential, because they would be TTP's main negotiators.

However, the TTP’s position was reversed after the killing of its ‘deputy chief’ Wali-ur-Rehman, in a US drone attack in the North Waziristan Agency of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on May 29, 2013. On May 30, 2013, Ehsan said, “We had made a sincere offer of peace dialogue with the Government but we strongly believe that the Government has a role to play in the drone strikes. That is why the Taliban central shura has decided to completely cancel the offer. This is now a final decision. We will teach a lesson to Pakistan and United States for depriving us of our leader.” Khan Syed replaced Wali-ur-Rehman as the ‘deputy chief’ soon after.

After Prime Minister Sharif took over, his offer of talks was thought, by certain quarters, to be a welcome move. Subsequent later political and other developments, however, exposed the resulting bewilderment within the ruling classes and the internal fractures within the TTP. The prospects of peace talks were quickly muddied by ever changing official statements and a visible hardening of the TTP position.

In the past as well, the Government had made attempts at striking several peace deals, but with little success. On October 2, 2011, the then Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani had made a similar offer, declaring that his administration was ready to hold negotiations with all militant groups, including TTP. Accepting the offer, Maulvi Faqir Muhammad, TTP’s Bajaur chapter ‘deputy commander’ and ‘commander-in-chief’, on October 3, 2011, declared, “TTP welcomes the Prime Minister’s offer.” The deal was quickly stalled after Faqir Muhammad set two impossible preconditions for talks: the Government should redefine its relationship with the US; and enforce Islamic Sharia’h law in the country.

Living under perpetual threat and succumbing periodically to terrorist pressure, the civilian Government has failed to act consistently against terrorists. On August 18, 2013, following threats from Punjabi Taliban leader Asmatullah Muawiya, the Government ordered a temporary stay on execution of convicted terrorists. On August 12, 2013, Muawiya had warned, “the Government will have to pay a price” for the execution of TTP prisoners. Soon after, the executions of three LeJ terrorists, Attaullah alias Qasim, Mohammad Azam alias Sharif and Jalal alias Abdul Jalil, who were to be executed on August 20, August 21 and August 22, respectively, were stayed, and remain pending with the Government. On July 4, 2013, Pakistan had ended a moratorium on executions, which had been imposed in 2008. Indeed, while conditionally welcoming the peace talk offer on August 20, 2013, Asmatullah Muawiya had demanded an indefinite stay on all executions. No execution has occurred since the purported lifting of the moratorium.

In the meanwhile, the rampage of terrorist violence continues across Pakistan. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 4,327 persons, including 2,393 civilians, 532 Security Force (SF) personnel and 1,402 terrorists, have been killed in terrorism-related incidents in the current year alone (all data till September 8, 2013). Since the official formation of TTP on December 14, 2007, at least 42,985 fatalities have been reported in terrorism-related incidents across the country, including 14,664 civilians, 4,161 SF personnel and 24,162 terrorists.

The problem of terrorism within Pakistan is unlikely to be resolved unless the broader support the state establishment offers to a wide range of jihadist formations is not brought to an end. Pakistan continues to aggressively support terrorist formations operating against Afghanistan and India, even as it seeks to neutralize groups operating within the country. However, the distinctions between these various formations are progressively blurred; not only do they share certain ideological fundamentals there is increasing evidence of operational cooperation. The TTP presence in Afghanistan is increasingly visible, and it has widely been seen to operate in coordination with the Afghan Taliban. The group has also been making strident pronouncements on the ‘oppression of Muslims in India’ and the imperatives of jihad there, and, while there is no evidence yet of any direct operation of TTP cadres in India, the lines between TTP membership and the cadre base of groups like the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) are far from clearly drawn.

There is little reason to believe that Prime Minister Sharif’s approach to terrorism can be substantively distinguished from the past policy of duplicity towards Islamist terrorism in Pakistan, driven by a desire to continue with jihadist mobilisation as an instrument of state policy, but to contain the blowback of violence within the country. It is, moreover, far from clear that the civilian Government actually exercises a sufficient authority on these issues, which have traditionally fallen under the sway of the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and military leadership. The charade of peace initiatives cannot transform the basic realities of radicalization, extremist establishment politics, and the relentless state sponsorship of terrorism in Pakistan. Unless these realities are addressed, it is unlikely that Pakistan will secure any greater relief from the scourge of its own creation.

AFGHANISTAN
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A New Dark Age for Women
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

With the drawdown of allied Forces inching closer, the Afghan Taliban and its affiliates in their pursuit of the enforcement of a brutal extremist Islamism have escalated violence and oppression against women across the country. Women who defied the Taliban’s diktat and came out of their homes to started work have been targeted with increasing frequency. Others, who have criticized or otherwise challenged the Taliban have also faced extreme consequences.

Sushmita Bandyopadhyay, a woman of Indian origin, was brutally killed by Afghan Taliban terrorists at Kharana in the Paktika Province in the night of September 4, 2013. Dawlat Khan Zadran, the Paktika Police Chief, disclosed, “The militants arrived before dawn at Banerjee's residence. They tied up her husband and other members of the family. The militants then dragged Banerjee outside, took her to a nearby road and shot her at least 15 times. Her body was dumped at a madrassah with some of her hair ripped out. It seems the killers were angry with the book and the film.” Indeed, the Taliban militants were angry. A close relative of the victim said, "They (Taliban militants) were saying, why have you written all these nasty things about us?"

Bandyopadhyay had converted to Islam and rechristened herself Sayeda Kamala after her marriage to Jaanbaz Khan, an Afghan citizen. She had authored a trilogy of memoirs, including the volume Kabuliwalar Bangali Bou (Kabuliwala's Bengali Wife), published in 1998; followed by Mullah Omar, Taliban O Ami (Mullah Omar, Taliban, and I), in 2000; and finally, Ek Borno Mithya Noi (Not a Word is a Lie), in 2001, in which she documented Taliban atrocities in Afghanistan. These memoirs became the basis for the 2003 Bollywood film Escape from Taliban. According to an October 8, 2001, report, her husband Jaanbaz Khan, had then stated, "I am being pressurized to give talaq to my Bengali wife, Sushmita Bandopadhay, whom I married here in Kolkata in 1989, if the shooting of the film is not stopped. The Taliban have sent word they cannot guarantee the safety of my family members who live in Sharana village near Ghazni, if the film is made."

Sushmita had returned to Afghanistan in January 2013 and had been working as a paramedic at a Government facility there.

There has also been a slew of attacks against women in power. On August 7, 2013, Taliban terrorists ambushed the convoy of Afghan woman Senator, Rouh Gul Khirzad, seriously wounding her in the attack and killing her 8-year-old daughter and a bodyguard in the Muqur District of Gazni Province. Khirzad’s husband, son and another daughter were also wounded in the attack. Khirzad was the head of the Defence and Internal Security Commission.

On July 3, 2013, 2nd Lieutenant Isla Bibi, the commander of women Police officers in Helmand Province (there are 32 female officers among a 7,000 strong Police Force in Helmand), was killed in Lashkar Gah, the Provincial capital. Earlier, this year, in a media interview, Isla Bibi had spoken of the tremendous opposition she had faced to her decision to join the Force: “My brother, father and sisters were all against me. In fact my brother tried to kill me three times.”

According to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan’s (UNAMA) Annual Report, 2012, the number of female civilian casualties in 2012 stood at 864 (301 deaths and 563 injuries), a 20 per cent increase over 2011. Women and girls killed and injured in incidents of targeted killings more than tripled in 2012, with 51 casualties, in comparison to 16 in 2011. Most of these incidents followed threats by terrorists against the women in relation to their work with the Government on women’s issues. For instance, on July 13, 2012, terrorists detonated a magnetic improvised explosive device (IED) against the vehicle of the Provincial Director of the Ministry of Women's Affairs in Laghman Province, Hanifa Safi, killing her and wounding her husband and daughter at Mehtarlam, the Provincial Capital. Similarly, on December 10, 2012, two armed Taliban terrorists shot dead the Provincial (Acting) Director of the Ministry of Women's Affairs in Laghman Province, Najia Siddiqi, in the Sharmaki area of Mehtarlam. UNAMA in its Mid-Year Report 2013, has disclosed that, in the first six months of 2013, conflict-related violence killed 106 women and injured 241 (347 total casualties), a 61 per cent increase over the same period in 2012. Georgette Gagnon, UNAMA’s Director of Human Rights, observed, “The growing loss of life and injuries to Afghan women and children in 2013 is particularly disturbing.”

Speaking of the deteriorating condition of women in Afghanistan, Noor Zia Atmar, a Member of Afghan Parliament from 2005 to 2010, who now lives in a Home for abused women after escaping from her husband, observed, on August 11, 2013,
Women are in a worse condition now. Every day they are being killed, having their ears, noses cut. It is not just women in villages – it is also people like me… It will be a huge tragedy if the world will forget about Afghan women altogether after the drawdown. We must remove fundamentalism from Afghanistan. The world should remember that the fire from here might not reach their country, but the smoke will.

The same Noor Zia Atmar, just three years earlier, had travelled the world with her colleagues to show that things were changing dramatically in Afghanistan. She had then been right in her assumption. The new Afghan Constitution, adopted in January 2004, prohibited any form of discrimination against any Afghan national, including women. Further, the Government of Afghanistan became a signatory to major international conventions which guaranteed women’s rights. Some of these treaties include the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights; the International Convention on Civil and Political Rights; the Declaration of Elimination of Violence against Women; and the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women. There were, moreover, visible indices of improvement in the condition of women: the maternal mortality rate was reduced from 1,600 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2001 to 327 in 2012. Women, who did not have the right to education, work and even movement without being escorted by a male relative before 2001, now account for 22 per cent of Government employees across the country.

However, the growing Taliban influence and the Karzai Government’s insistence on establishing good relations with the Taliban, have changed the nature of Governance in the country, with conservatives quickly restoring their influence. This has stopped the Government from taking steps to enhance the status of women and have dampened efforts to extend greater protection to them in public spaces.

In May 2013, the Parliament, amidst opposition by the conservatives, failed to ratify the Law on Elimination of Violence against Women (EVAW), which had come into force under a Presidential decree in 2009. Though the law is still in force, pro reform groups fear it could be reversed unless it is ratified by Parliament. More worryingly, according to a July 2013 report, Parliament is considering a proposal for a criminal law revision that would effectively deny women legal protection from domestic violence. Human Rights Watch Asia Director Brad Adams observed, “Afghanistan’s Lower House is proposing to protect the batterers of women and girls from criminal punishment. Legislative approval of this criminal law revision would effectively stop prosecutions of people who beat, forcibly marry, and even sell their female relatives.”

On the electoral front, on July 15, 2013, the National Assembly passed a new electoral law according to which the women’s quota in the new Provincial Council would be reduced to 20 per cent, down from 25 per cent under the earlier electoral law of 2004.

The pressure, both within Afghanistan and as a result of increasing US desperation to secure an ordered withdrawal of Forces through some sort of negotiated settlement with the Taliban and its masters in Pakistan, is jeopardizing the tentative and fragile gains of the past years. All of Afghanistan would, of course, pay the price for a restoration of radicalism in the country; but women would be the worst affected in the new Dark Age that now threatens this blighted nation.

INDIA
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Assam: Uncertain Drift
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On September 1,2013, Assam Governor, J B Patnaik expressed satisfaction over the progress of peace talks with the Pro-Talks Faction of United Liberation front of Asom’s (ULFA-PTF). The Government described the faction as the “real ULFA” and claimed there may be some significant announcement “soon” on the outcome of the dialogue held so far. Governor Patnaik added further, that the still active ‘Independent’ faction of ULFA (ULFA-I) leader Paresh Baruah and members of his group would not be “harassed” by security agencies if they come forward for peace talks with the Government to secure a lasting solution to the insurgency in Assam.

However, the Anti-Talks Faction of ULFA (ULFA-ATF), which had renamed itself ULFA-I during its central executive committee meeting on April 2-5, 2013, insists that talks on the issue of ‘sovereignty’ of Assam can only be held in a “third country”, in the presence of representatives of the United Nations, conditions that would be entirely unacceptable to the Government.

Further, on August 25, 2013, ULFA-I dismissed the peace talks by the Arabinda Rajkhowa-led ULFA-PTF, underlining the fact that it had adopted the “independent” tag to distance itself from the name associated with erstwhile leaders who “surrendered to the enemy”. In an editorial in its mouthpiece, Swadhinata (Freedom), the outfit termed ULFA as “the past of the united fight for Assam’s liberation” and ULFA-I as the present and future of the movement. The mouthpiece further stated that ULFA was not divided; the “uncompromising members” had just begun a new journey to attain its original objective.

ULFA-I continues to engage in violent acts and is also forming alliances with other militant groups in the State and region. Most recently, on July 28, 2013, suspected ULFA-I militants exploded a hand grenade, causing injuries to15 persons, at Paltan Bazar in the Guwahati city area of the Kamrup (Metro) District. Subsequently, on August 1, one of the wounded persons succumbed to his injuries.On July 23, 2013, suspected ULFA-I militants had hurled three grenades at three different places in the North Lakhimpur Town of Lakhimpur District, resulting in injuries to five civilians. The formation was also involved in the one major incident (resulting in three or more fatalities) of terrorist violence recorded in the State this year. On April 19, 2013, an Inspector of the Assam Police, identified as Lohit Sonowal, two militants, identified as Raktajeet Hazarika and Ananta Moran, of the ULFA-I, and one civilian, were killed in an encounter at Kordoiguri village in Tinsukia District. The civilian, identified as Pona Moran, died in the crossfire.

Meanwhile, after the recent (sixth) tripartite meeting involving representatives of the Central and Assam Governments and ULFA-PTF, held in Delhi on June 26, 2013, both State Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi and Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) officials announced ‘significant progress’ in the peace process. Government and ULFA-PTF have met six times since 2011.

On July 5, 2013, Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, disclosed that the Central Government was “seriously considering” ULFA-PTF’s proposal to accord tribal status to the State: "One of ULFA's major demands is the Scheduled Tribe (ST) tag for the six indigenous communities. I also demand the same. After the move, the tribal population of the State will be in majority." Chief Minister Gogoi further observed that he was certain that the Union Ministry of Tribal Affairs would give its nod to the proposal. The six communities include Koch Rajbongshis, Moran, Chutia, Muttock, Tai-Ahom and Adivasi. While the Moran, Chutia, Muttock and Tai-Ahom communities reside principally in the Upper Assam region, the Koch Rajbongshis are concentrated in lower Assam. Adivasis inhabit Upper, Central and Lower Assam.

An unnamed senior ULFA-PTF leader, however, said the group had discussed the tribal State issue mainly among themselves: “The issue is not on the official agenda for the talks yet.”

Crucially, the Union Ministry of Tribal Affairs had, on August 22, 2013, rejected a separate demand for Scheduled Tribe (ST) status for the six communities of the State, stating that the communities could not fulfill the five criteria for identification as STs. Under the circumstances, it is not clear how a proposal for declaring the entire State ‘Tribal’ could receive any easy assent from the same Ministry.

After the meeting, Shambhu Singh, Joint Secretary (Northeast) in the MHA, stated, “We have reached a point almost close to finalising a working draft. Certain things are still under discussion but we hope the working draft will be ready very soon.” He said the Government has understood the concerns and demands of ULFA and was trying to reach an amicable solution to the three issues on which there was no agreement yet: protection of political and cultural identity of the indigenous people of Assam; land rights; and illegal immigration. Singh added, “From the three issues, the Union Home Secretary will start the process of consultation with all stakeholders.”

The parent ULFA, which had led the fight for ‘Sovereign Assam’, suffered a split on February 5, 2011, when its general council [in absence of Paresh Baruah] endorsed the resolution of the Central Executive Council (CEC) to sit for talks with the Central Government without any precondition. Earlier attempts to initiate peace talks with the then united ULFA had failed. However, the Bangladeshi action against the group in 2009-2010, when most of the top leadership of the outfit was handed over to India, induced the captured ULFA leadership to seek a compromise. Earlier, two companies [Alpha and Charlie] of ULFA’s Upper Assam-based ‘28th battalion’, the most potent strike group of the outfit, had announced a unilateral ceasefire with the Government on June 24, 2008.

Even before the peace talks initiative commenced in 2011, undivided ULFA 'publicity secretary' Mithinga Daimary [now with ULFA-PTF], on December 3, 2009, had expressed doubts about a peace process without the participation of the outfit’s top ‘commander’, Paresh Baruah: "It is possible to hold talks within the framework of the Constitution [Indian], but talks without Baruah [Paresh Baruah] would be unrealistic and would not solve the problem... sovereignty must be the basis for talks; though whether it will be achieved or not, the future alone can tell."

Significantly, ULFA-PTF’s 12 point charter of demands does not include the original ‘core demand’ of ‘sovereignty’.

The idea of converting Assam into a tribal State has also met with some opposition, particularly from the Barak Valley region [consisting of the Cachar, Karimganj and Hailakandi Districts] of Assam. The Barak Upatyaka Banga Sahitya o Sanskriti Sammelon, the apex literary and cultural body of the Bengali-dominated Barak Valley, on July 15, 2013, expressed opposition to any such move and warned that if Assam is declared a tribal state, it result in a 'deep crisis'. The literary body however maintained that it does not oppose granting tribal status to the six tribal communities and supports ULFA peace talks.

The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), the principle opposition party in Assam, has stated that the grant of tribal State status to Assam would lead to the deprivation of political and other rights to over 50 per cent of its population.

The Asom Sangkhyalaghu Sangram Parishad (Assam Minority Struggle Forum), during its meeting with Union Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde, on July 11, 2013, also stated that any move to declare Assam a tribal State would be “strongly opposed.”

The ULFA peace talks have also drawn criticism from a section of ULFA-PTF and surrendered militants due to their secrecy, the absence of surrendered militants and of Paresh Baruah. A senior ULFA-PTF member, Prabal Neog, warned “We have seen how the Assam Accord went. We do not want another accord, which will not be strong enough to safeguard the people’s rights. So, it is important that ULFA cadres are aware of the direction in which the talks are headed. We will not settle for a soft deal with the Centre. Any wrong move may lead to another armed movement.”

The All Assam Surrendered ULFA Committee, on July 23, 2013, further asserted that the ongoing peace talks with the Arabinda Rajkhowa-led ULFA-PTF would prove futile unless and until all the surrendered and ULFA-I militants were taken into confidence. The Committee also demanded withdrawal of nearly 15,000 cases pending against around 3,000 surrendered ULFA cadres in the State.

The ULFA-PTF militants have also been involved in crimes such as extortion and abduction. On August 20, 2012, Police arrested the 'commander' of ULFA-PTF’s ‘709 battalion’, Hira Sarania, from the designated camp at Helacha in Nalbari District on charges of extortion and abduction of a businessperson, Ranjan Lohia, of Guwahati city. According to a February 11, 2012, report, 26 ULFA-PTF militants had been arrested between October 2011 and February 2012 for flouting ceasefire rules. Security Forces (SFs) also recovered 18 weapons from the arrested militants.

Further, the fate of ULFA’s founding ‘General Secretary’ Anup Chetia, perceived to be a crucial signatory in any successful peace deal, remains unknown. Chetia is presently held in a Rajshahi Central Jail in Bangladesh, pending a political decision to determine whether his case would come under the extradition treaty signed with India.

The Government’s ‘positive engagement’ with ULFA-PTF, moreover, comes at a time when most past as well as recent accords with militant formation in the State are under strain due to renewed separate Statehood movements. Under the circumstances the outcome of any deal with ULFA-PTF is unlikely to secure lasting peace.


NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
September 2-8, 2013

 

Civilians

Security Force Personnel

Terrorists/Insurgents

Total

BANGLADESH

 

Left-wing Extremism

0
0
2
2

INDIA

 

Assam

0
0
4
4

Jammu and Kashmir

2
0
2
4

Meghalaya

1
0
1
2

Nagaland

0
0
1
1

Left-wing Extremism

 

Bihar

1
0
0
1

Chhattisgarh

1
0
0
1

Jharkhand

1
1
0
2

Odisha

0
0
2
2

Total (INDIA)

6
1
10
17

PAKISTAN

 

Balochistan

4
0
0
4

FATA

5
0
7
12

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

6
0
1
7

Punjab

7
0
0
7

Sindh

30
6
8
44

Total (PAKISTAN)

52
6
16
74
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.


INDIA

Statehood demands can't be met for now, says Union Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde: Union Home Minister (UHM), Sushil Kumar Shinde made it clear that other statehood demands would have to wait for now. When asked about the fate of demands for states like Gorkhaland, Vidarbha, Bodoland, etc, which had gathered pitch after the Congress Working Committee (CWC) agreed to concede Telangana, UHM, Shinde said: "These cannot be considered immediately...as and when it is needed, we will consider them". Times of India, September 8, 2013.

Maoists recruit 10,000 minors for non-combat operations: Nearly 10,000 children, including girls, have been "recruited" by Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) across Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Bihar and Jharkhand to serve as intelligence gatherers or perform chores as cooks and couriers. Though these minor recruits - mostly aged between 10 to 15 - don't carry arms, they are given the basic training to handle weapons. While around 3,000-4,000 children alone stand enrolled into "bal sangham" in Chhattisgarh and Odisha, the young hands working for Maoists in Jharkhand and Bihar are organized under 'bal dasta'. Times of India, September 7, 2013.

Ominous signs of revival of Sikh militancy, say Indian Security Agencies: At least 10 top Sikh militants, holed up in Pakistan for many years, are under pressure from Pakistan's intelligence agencies to revive Sikh militancy in India, Indian intelligence sources claimed on September 5. "Pakistan is so desperate to reactivate the militant leaders that it has told them to either create turmoil in India - or quit Pakistani territory for good," said an unnamed senior security official. Security officials say the list of 10 names have been shared with several Police forces, including those in Delhi and Punjab. IBN Live, September 6, 2013.

Yasin Bhatkal reveals responsibility for German Bakery blast: Indian Mujahideen's (IM) 'operational chief' in India, Yasin Bhatkal, who was arrested on August 28, 2013, during his interrogation admitted responsibility for the February 13, 2010, German Bakery blast in Pune and named another individual as his accomplice. Bhatkal identified Mohammed Qateel Siddiqui, a resident Darbhanga District of Bihar as his fellow-conspirator, saying they wanted to target the foreigner "Jews" frequenting the bakery in the tony Koregaon Park area of Pune. Hindustan Times, September 4, 2013.

Karnataka Government invites Naxals for talks: The Karnataka Government have invited Naxalites [Left Wing Extremists (LWEs)] for talks. "The Karnataka government have invited Naxalites [Left Wing Extremists (LWEs)] for talks," State Revenue Minister V. Srinivas Prasad said on September 4. Srinivas Prasad said that if Naxals reveal their problems and the objectives for which they are fighting, then the Government will try to solve their problems by finding suitable solutions. He said Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) activities in the State had come down. The Hindu, September 5, 2013.


NEPAL

CPN-Maoist-Baidya conducts combat training in Rukum District: The agitating Mohan Baidya led Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Baidya) has conducted an underground combat training for its cadres in Rukum District with a view to preparing them for disrupting the Constituent Assembly (CA) polls scheduled for November 19. During the weeklong residential training held at Garayala village in western Rukum District, 36 cadres were trained in warfare skills. Myrepublica, September 5, 2013.


PAKISTAN

30 civilians and eight militants among 44 persons killed during the week in Sindh: Four persons were killed in separate incidents of violence and target killing in Karachi (Karachi District), the provincial capital of Sindh, on September 7.

Three persons including ANP leader shot dead in separate incidents of violence in Karachi on September 6.

Five persons including three TTP militants killed in separate incidents in Karachi on September 5.

As many as 14 people, including a naval officer and one Rangers personnel, were killed in Karachi on September 4.

Nine persons, including an Assistant Sub-Inspector (ASI), killed in separate incidents of violence in Karachi on September 3.

Eight persons, including three militants, killed in separate incidents of violence in Karachi on September 2. Daily Times; Dawn; The News; Tribune; Central Asia Online; The Nation; The Frontier Post; Pakistan Today; Pakistan Observer, September 3-9, 2013.

JuD Chief Hafiz Muhammad Saeed holds rally in Islamabad: Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) founder and Jama'at-ud-Dawa (JuD) Chief Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, who has USD 10 million United States (US) bounty on his head, appeared openly at a rally in Islamabad on September 6, denouncing India as a 'terrorist state' as more than 10,000 of his supporters chanted for "holy war" against India. "The United States and India are very angry with us. This means God is happy with us," Saeed told the crowd as supporters chanted Jihad (Holy war) and 'War will continue until the liberation of Kashmir'. Daily Times, September 7, 2013.

Army not involved in any military operation in Balochistan, claims Army Chief Ashfaq Pervez Kayani:Army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani on September 6 denied the perception that a military operation is underway in Balochistan. He said that the troops are in barracks and not a single soldier is engaged in army operation in the province. Kayani said that Pakistan's defence lies in the strong and prosperous Balochistan. " It is not just a coincidence that I'm celebrating the National Defence Day in the Sui town of Balochistan, but it is a matter of importance and honour which the army keeps for Balochistan," he said during a passing-out parade of cadets at the Military College Sui (MCS). Daily Times, September 7, 2013.

MFN status will be given to India, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar assures to IMF: Pakistan on September 6 assured the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to grant Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to India and move towards eliminating the negative list on trade with the neighbour as part of its overall trade policy. "We are moving forward with eliminating the negative list on trade with India and extending India MFN status, and shifting to 'sensitive list' under SAFTA (South Asia Free Trade Arrangement) regime to facilitate increased regional trade," Finance Minister Ishaq Dar assured the IMF in writing during negotiations for recently approved USD 6.64 billion economic bailout package. Dawn, September 7, 2013.

Pakistan understands importance of nuclear-security, says US: The US State Department on September 4 said that Pakistan has a professional and dedicated Security Force that fully understands the importance of nuclear security. In a statement issued on September 4 evening, the Department's spokesperson Jen Psaki also welcomed Pakistan's reiteration of its commitment to disarmament and non-proliferation. "We welcome Pakistan's statement yesterday that it is fully committed to the objectives of disarmament and non-proliferation," Ms Psaki said. Dawn, September 6, 2013.

Tirah Valley in FATA cleared of terrorists, declares Army: Army on September 4 cleared Tirah Valley in Khyber Agency of Federally Administrative Tribal Areas (FATA) of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants and restored the Government's writ after a successful operation that killed 104 militants and injured 64 others. At least eight soldiers, including an officer, were lost during the operation. Operational Commander Major General Humayun Aziz said the militants have fled to Afghanistan to avoid arrest or being killed by the forces. Daily Times, September 5, 2013.

Supreme Court refuses to rule on drone attacks issue: The Supreme Court on September 4 dismissed an appeal against the drone attacks in the tribal areas saying that judicial involvement in the matters relating to the drone hits might contravene the Constitution. A two-member bench of the apex court comprising Justice Tassaduq Hussain Jilani and Justice Amir Hani Muslim dismissed the appeal and ruled that the issues, raised in the petition filed by Wukala Mahaz Barai Tahafuz Dastoor, were neither justiciable nor they fell within the judicial domain for interference under Article 199 of the Constitution of Islamic Republic of Pakistan. The News, September 5, 2013.

Talks with Government not initiated yet, says TTP: The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on September 4 again denied initiating any kind of talks with the Government. The TTP 'spokesman', Shahidullah Shahid, told a private news channel from an undisclosed location that the TTP also supported reconciliation and some Ulema had also contacted the TTP for peace talks. He said internal consultations on holding or not holding talks with the Government were underway within the TTP. However, he said, no final decision had been made in this regard so far. The News, September 5, 2013.

Al Qaeda sets up anti-drone cells, says The Washington Post: Al Qaeda's leaders have set up cells of engineers to try to shoot down, disable or hijack US drones, The Washington Post reported on September 3 citing top-secret US intelligence documents. The al Qaeda leadership is "hoping to exploit the technological vulnerabilities of a weapons system that has inflicted huge losses against the terrorist network," The Washington Post said online. "Although there is no evidence that al Qaeda has forced a drone crash or successfully interfered with flight operations, US intelligence officials have closely tracked the group's persistent efforts to develop a counter-drone strategy since 2010," the report said, citing the secret documents. Washington Post, September 5, 2013.

Extortion complaints doubled this year, reveals CPLC official: A The Citizens-Police Liaison Committee (CPLC) official on September 3said that the CPLC received 1,024 extortion complaints from traders in the first eight months of 2013 in comparison with 590 last year - almost double in number. He said, "There was a 100 percent increase in extortion complaints this year," adding, "These figures are alarming considering that many traders and other citizens don't lodge their complaints." The News, September 4, 2013.

Operations intensified in Balochistan to suppress voice of Baloch people, says BNP-M President Sardar Akhtar Mengal: The Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M) President Sardar Akhtar Mengal on September 2 claimed that operations have been intensified in Balochistan to suppress the voice of Baloch people clamouring for their rights. Addressing a news conference at Quetta (provincial capital of Balochistan), Mengal said, "Operations have been intensified to stop Baloch people from seeking their legitimate national rights." He described the action as 'genocide' of the Baloch people. Tribune, September 3, 2013.


SRI LANKA

TNA manifesto for upcoming NPC election calls for power devolution in a merged North and East under a Federal structure: The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) in a manifesto released for the upcoming Northern Provincial Council (NPC) election has called for power devolution in a merged North and East under a federal structure. In its election manifesto, the TNA has called for devolution of power on the basis of shared sovereignty over land, law and order, socio-economic development including health and education, resources and fiscal powers. Colombo Page, September 5, 2013.

Much remains to be done to ensure national reconciliation, says Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa: Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa delivering the Keynote Address as Guest of Honour at the third annual Defence Seminar 2013 in Colombo on September 3 said "Despite the success of the Welfare camps, despite the speed of resettlement, and despite the far-reaching nature of the rehabilitation and reintegration programme, it is not easy to ensure speedy reconciliation". He further said that speedy national reconciliation is not easy since for a very long period of time, most of the people in the North and parts of the East of the country lived under the total dominance of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Colombo Page, September 4, 2013.


The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR]

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Dr. Ajai Sahni


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