Peace prevailed
over much of India's Northeast through 2015, with 62 civilian
fatalities in the year, as against 245 such fatalities recorded
in 2014. Fatalities had been rising since 2011, with 79 civilians
killed in the year, as against 77 in 2010; rising to 90 in 2012
and further to 95 in 2013.
More importantly,
the 62 civilian fatalities registered in 2015 are the lowest in
the region since 1992, according to the South Asia Terrorism
Portal (SATP) database [SATP data for the region is available
only since 1992]. The previous lowest was 77 recorded in 2010.
Notably, at the peak of the multiple insurgencies in the region,
946 civilian fatalities were recorded in 2000.
The region comprises
eight states: Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram,
Nagaland, Sikkim, and Tripura. Barring Sikkim which has had no
insurgency in its history, all others have seen enduring movements
of armed violence, though their intensity and dispersal have varied
across these States and across time. Significantly, while civilian
fatalities were recorded across all seven States through 2014,
2015 saw no such fatalities in two States-Tripura and Mizoram.
Among the States from where fatalities were reported in 2015,
except Nagaland which registered a marginal increase, from 11
in 2014 to 14, all the other States registered a fall in civilian
fatalities. Assam recorded the largest dip, with just 10 such
fatalities in 2015, as against 184 in 2014.
Overall fatalities
in the region also declined from 465 [245 civilians, 23 Security
Forces (SFs) personnel, 197 militants] in 2014, to 273 [62 civilians,
49 SFs personnel, 162 militants] in 2015, a drop of 41.29 per
cent. At the peak of the insurgencies, the region recorded 1,696
fatalities in 2000. So far in 2016 (data till April 3), the Northeast
has recorded 39 fatalities (10 civilians and 29 militants).
The number of districts
from where fatalities were reported in 2015 stood at 40, as against
47 in 2014. The seven troubled States of the Northeast (excluding
Sikkim) have a total of 87 Districts.
Other parameters
of violence also witnessed improvements. As against 31 major incidents
(involving three or more fatalities) resulting in 229 deaths in
2014, there were 16 such incidents resulting in 82 deaths in 2015.
The number of explosions and resultant fatalities also recorded
a decline, from 102 incidents and 24 killed in 2014, to 74 incidents
and 11 killed in 2015.
SF operations yielded
a kill ratio of 1:2.16 against militants in 2015, significantly
worse than 2014, when it stood at 1:7.65. As operations intensified,
the militants have pushed back against the SFs in 2015. In 2016,
thus far (data till April 3), SFs have eliminated 29 militants
without suffering a single loss, suggesting that the adverse trend
in 2015 has been reversed. [SFs had killed 176 militants out of
197 killed in 2014; while 21 were killed in factional clashes.
Similarly, out of 162 militants killed in 2015, 56 were killed
in factional clashes while SFs eliminated 106].
Nevertheless, numerous
challenges remain before lasting peace can be established in this
troubled region, which has witnessed cyclic surges and recessions
in levels
of violence over decades. Never since 1992
have overall fatalities registered decline, on year on year basis,
for more than three consecutive years. This positive trend was
achieved twice-between 2004 and 2006; and between 2009 and 2011.
Fatalities then increased for five consecutive years between 1993
and 1997, the longest span of continuous increase in fatalities.
The region remains
home to 13 of the 39 terrorist formations banned by the Union
Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) as on March 30, 2015. According
to the SATP database, apart from these 13 major terror outfits,
30 other groups remain active in the region. In addition, 23 terror
groups/conglomerates are presently in peace talks or have signed
ceasefire agreements with respective State and the Union Governments.
In the meantime, on March 21, 2016, Union Home Minister (UHM)
Rajnath Singh reiterated, "We are ready for talks with anyone
who gives up violence. I appeal to everyone to shun violence."
Significantly,
a 'historic
accord' was signed between the Government
of India (GoI) and the largest rebel Naga group, the National
Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM)
on August 3, 2015. While few details of the actual contents of
the agreement are available, the Centre’s principal interlocutor
R.N. Ravi had then clarified that the ‘accord’ was, in fact, a
"framework agreement" that spelled out the terms of a “final
settlement”. Though subsequent reports suggested that such a final
settlement would be worked out within three months, more than
seven months have passed and no timeframe has yet been scheduled.
However, NSCN-IM and GoI decided on January 20, 2016, to speed
up the peace process by holding 'formal talks' twice a week.
There have, however,
been instances in the past when terror outfits in the region have
abrogated ceasefire agreements and rejoined militancy. Most recently,
the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K)
on March 27, 2015, unilaterally
abrogated a ceasefire that had endured since
April 2001. Subsequently, the Union Government also called off
its agreement with NSCN-K through a statement released on April
28, 2015. NSCN-K had signed the ceasefire agreement with the Central
Government on April 28, 2001, and this had since been extended
annually. Since abrogating the ceasefire, the NSCN-K has been
confirmed to have been involved in the killing of seven civilians
and nine SF personnel in Nagaland.
It is noteworthy
that after being successfully targeted by the SFs in a protracted
campaign, most of the major terror outfits operating in the region
have moved their leadership to neighboring countries like Bangladesh,
Bhutan, China and Myanmar. They operate out of ‘safe havens’ in
these countries, from where they have established training camps,
and from where they help their cadres smuggle arms and ammunition,
and mount attacks on Indian soil. Though the Indian Government
has been able to get vital support from countries like Bangladesh,
Bhutan
and Myanmar
from time to time, helping reduce the menace, several training
camps still exist in these countries and these remain a worry.
Not surprisingly, on March 21, 2016, UHM Rajnath Singh asserted,
"We are trying to ensure border security through all possible
means and to curb cross-border terrorism in the region. We (the
Central Government) will discuss with Chief Ministers of the northeastern
States to check the smuggling of arms from across the international
border and to other States in the country. Whatever assistance
is required from the Central Government would be provided to all
the State Governments."
Significantly,
Mukul Sangma, Chief Minister of Meghalaya, one of the States in
the region, expressing concern on the easy availability of arms
had noted, on March 11, 2016, "There are pockets in the region
(Northeast) where arms are easily available. There are too many
guns available at throwaway prices."
Moreover, facing
the heat from SFs, the militants in the region have come together
in an attempt to form a united platform. On April 17, 2015, NSCN-K
joined hands with three of the most active terror outfits in the
Northeast: the United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I);
IK Songbijit faction of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland
(NDFB-IKS);
and Kamtapur Liberation Organisation (KLO),
to form the United National Liberation Front of Western South
East Asia (UNLFWESEA). The UNLFWESEA headed by S.S. Khaplang was
formed with the aim to set up a ‘northeast government-in-exile',
reportedly to be based in Myanmar. The CorCom [Coordination Committee],
a conglomerate of six Manipur Valley-based militant outfits-the
Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP),
Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL),
People's Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK),
its Progressive faction (PREPAK-Pro), Revolutionary People's Front
(RPF, the political wing of the People’s Liberation Army-PLA),
and United National Liberation Front (UNLF)-have
also reportedly extended ‘moral support’ to the Front and agreed
to take part in joint operations against ‘common enemies'. CorCom
was formed in July 2011 with seven members but, in a Press Release
issued on February 1, 2013, stated that it has expelled the United
Peoples Party of Kangleipak (UPPK) from its membership.
According to a
March 23, 2016, report, the Assam Police disclosed, through a
Press Statement, “On March 8, a group of UNLFWSEA [UNLFWESEA]
and some other extremist organisations entered Upper Dihing Reserve
Forest, Tinsukia. The group was a conglomerate of ULFA (I), PLA
[Peoples' Liberation Army], KYKL [Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup], NSCN
(K)." Their initial target was to attack SFs in Upper Assam
on March 16, 2016, ULFA's 'Raising Day'.
UMHA has also expressed
concern over the Communist Party of India-Maoist’s (CPI-Maoist)
attempts to expand their base in the region. UHM Rajnath Singh,
on March 22, 2016, thus observed, while addressing Assam Rifles
troopers on their 181st Raising Day celebrations in
Meghalaya, "We have got information that in some parts of
the Northeast, Maoists are trying expand their roots. We have
to check this, and I believe you can demoralise their courage
(sic)." Interestingly, none of the 87 Districts of
the seven insurgency affected States in the region feature in
the list of 106 districts declared Maoist-affected by the UMHA
as of March 1, 2016. In the last such detailed list which was
released in 2012, thirteen Districts across three States in the
Northeast (Assam-10, Tripura-2, and Arunachal Pradesh 1) were
listed as Maoist-affected. 182 districts (including the 13 in
the Northeast) had been declared Maoist-affected in the 2012
list.
Meanwhile, residual
State specific threats persist in all the seven affected States:
Arunachal
Pradesh, Assam,
Manipur,
Meghalaya,
Mizoram,
Nagaland
and Tripura.
For instance, the issue
of the Inner Line Permit (ILP) continued to trouble Manipur through
2015, with 10 people killed in the related stir. Manipur was the
worst affected State in the region in terms of insurgency related
fatalities through 2015, accounting for 94 deaths.
SFs have helped
attain relative peace in the region and are expected to tackle
the residual challenges as well. However, for an enduring peace
to be established in the region, it is imperative for the Central
Government to work in unison with the respective State Governments
to accelerate developmental projects in the region to narrow down
the economic disparity which has emerged because of years of neglect
on the part of successive regimes.On March 3, 2016, Union Minister
for Development of the North Eastern Region (DoNER) Jitendra Singh
disclosed, "The budgetary allocation for the Ministry of
DoNER has been increased from Rs 2,334.50 crore last year to Rs
2,400 crore this year. A budget of Rs 33,097.02 crore has been
allocated for the Northeast across 56 ministries, which is 14
per cent higher than the budget estimate of Rs 29,087.93 crore
for the previous year."
Fund allocation,
however, is only a very small part of the problem. Despite generous
Central allocations, States in the region have-with the exception
of Tripura-been non-performers, and their administrations deeply
eroded by corruption, neglect and politicization.
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