South Asia Terrorism Portal
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Tides of Terror Tushar Ranjan Mohanty Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On April 8, 2023, two Army soldiers were killed in an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blast in the Bara tehsil (revenue unit) of Khyber District.
On April 3, 2023, two Policemen were killed by unidentified terrorists while they were on patrol duty in the Tapi area of Kohat District.
On March 30, 2023, four Policemen, including Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP), Iqbal Mohmand, were killed while another six Policemen were injured when terrorists attacked a Police check post in Lakki Marwat town (Lakki Marwat District).
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) has recorded a total of 124 Security Force (SF) fatalities so far in 2023 (till April 16). During the corresponding period do 2022, there were 50 SF fatalities and, through 2022, there were 173 SF fatalities.
Fatalities in the SF category in KP have seen a rising trend since 2018, when they doubled from 26 in 2017, to 52, with the exception of 2020. There were 69 fatalities in 2019, 57 in 2020 and 108 in 2021.
The situation is the same for the whole of Pakistan. SF fatalities increased from 137 in 2019 to 178 in 2020, 226 in 2021 and 379 in 2022. In 2023, 222 SF fatalities have already been recorded.
With the collapse of ‘official’ talks between the Government and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on November 28, 2022, the latter stepped up attacks on security forces.
According to KP Police data, 125 Police personnel have been killed and another 212 sustained injuries in militant attacks across the province during the first quarter of 2023. A total of 25 cases of militant attacks were registered with the Police during the first three months of the year. According to Police data, 15 militant attacks were reported against the Police in January 2023, in which 116 personnel were killed and 189 injured. Three militant attacks were reported in February 2023, in which two Police personnel were killed and another five were wounded. Seven cases were registered by the Police in March 2023, in which seven Policemen were killed and another 18 were wounded.
In the worst attack targeting Policemen during the first quarter of 2023, on January 30, 2023, a suicide attacker detonated his device himself inside a mosque in the Police Lines area of Peshawar, the provincial capital of KP. The suicide bomber was present in the first row of the worshippers at the mosque. At least 84 persons, including 83 Policemen, were killed and another 220 were injured in the blast. Sahibzada Noor Ul Amin, Imam of the mosque, was also killed in the blast. Capital City Police Officer, Peshawar (CCPO) Ejaz Khan, disclosed that close to 300 to 400 Policemen usually offered prayers at the mosque. Two Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leaders, Sarbakaf Mohmand and Omar Mukaram Khurasani, claimed that the attack was “revenge” for the killing of Khalid Khorasani, the chief of TTP’s splinter group, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA), in the Barmal District of the Paktika Province of Afghanistan, on August 7, 2022. However, TTP central ‘spokesman’ Muhammad Khorasani denied any involvement in the attack.
The SFs have killed 114 terrorists in 2023, thus far, yielding a SF:terrorist kill ratio of 1.07:1. During the corresponding period of 2022, the ratio was 1:1.44. Through 2022, it stood at 1:1.35.
The SFs’ position on the ground has evidently weakened, and has also resulted in a substantial jump in civilian fatalities, from 71 in 2021 to 119 in 2022. 12 civilians have already been killed in the current year.
Meanwhile after a TTP attack on the Sarband Police Station in Peshawar on January 14, 2023, in which three Policemen, including Sardar Hussain, Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP), Badaber, and his two Police guards, were killed, KP Inspector General of Police (IGP), Moazzam Jah Ansari, disclosed that sniper weapons were used by the terrorists for the first time in Peshawar, while these "are being used in Bannu, Lakki Marwat and DI Khan" as well.
Indeed, a report released by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty on March 31, 2023, noted that the weapons left behind by US Forces when they pulled out from Afghanistan in 2021, and that had been seized by the Afghan Taliban, have reached terrorist groups, mainly the TTP, operating in Pakistan, principally in KP. Abdul Sayed, a Sweden-based researcher who tracks the TTP, claimed that the group’s access to sophisticated combat weapons has had a “terrifying” impact, especially on the relatively lesser-equipped Police forces in Pakistan.
Indeed, according to a report released on December 19, 2022, the KP Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) lacks the capacity to fight terrorism. The report noted that the KP CTD had a staff of 2,135 against an authorized strength of 3,161. This put an average strength across KP’s 34 districts at 62 personnel per district. As against Punjab’s massive fleet of 1,466 Police vehicles, KP has a mere 448.
On February 1, 2023, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif blamed the KP Government for its failure to equip the Police and civil armed forces to counter terrorists, questioning the manner in which the provincial Government had spent funds to the tune PKR 417 billion received from the Federal Government since 2010. During the Federal Cabinet meeting, the PM demanded, “Where did these funds go even though the National Counter-Terrorism Authority and Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) had been established?” The PM said that the nation wanted the KP Government to be held accountable for the rise of terrorism in the Province.
Meanwhile, on December 27, 2022, Federal Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah disclosed that there were around 7,000 to 10,000 TTP fighters in the region, and they were accompanied by 25,000 members of their families. This statement was later confirmed by former Prime Minister Imran Khan who, on January 10, 2023, revealed that his government had planned to resettle TTP militants in the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), with the help of the Afghan Taliban. Imran Khan stated that the fall of Kabul and the rise of the Afghan Taliban to power provided Pakistan with a ‘golden opportunity’ to deal with the TTP threat. “The Afghan Taliban pressurised the TTP, which had over 5,000 fighters among its 40,000-strong group, to go back to Pakistan and we took a number of steps to deal with it,” he had added.
In a report released on February 14, 2023, the US Institute of Peace (USIP), a US-based think tank noted, that “amid Pakistan’s economic crisis and the Taliban’s rule in Afghanistan, the Pakistani Taliban have re-emerged as an increasingly potent threat”. The report further asserted that the “Taliban’s determination to continue supporting the TTP, even in the face of intensified pressure from Pakistan” was worrisome.
The surge in attacks on SFs in KP in particular and the country at large, at a time when Pakistan is facing acute socio-political economic crisis, is likely to continue, with very little hope of any reversal in this trend in immediate future.
Mizoram: Exogenous Conflicts Mutum Kenedy Singh Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On March 17, 2023, Assam Rifles, in a joint operation with the Police, arrested two persons and seized arms and ammunition, from the Chite Veng area of Aizawl District. Two pistols, four live rounds of ammunition and two pistol magazines were recovered from the arrested persons.
On March 17, 2023, Assam Rifles, in a joint operation with the Police, arrested Faliansang Bawm, a cadre of the Kuki Chin National Army (KCNA), a Bangladesh-based rebel outfit, from Bungtlang village in Lawngtlai District.
On March 10, 2023, Assam Rifles, in a joint operation with the Police, arrested two high-ranking KCNA cadres, identified as Zingramlian and Pazau, both Bangladeshi nationals, from Hmunnuam village of Lawngtalai District.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 11 insurgents have been arrested in the current year, thus far (data till April 16, 2023). In 2022, a total of 15 arrests were made, in addition to 14 in 2021. Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on insurgencies in India’s northeast, 207 insurgents have been arrested in Mizoram.
There have been four incidents of arms recovery in 2023. There were 13 such incidents in 2022 and eight in 2021. Since March 6, 2000, the state has recorded 86 incidents of arms recovery.
No violent incident has been recorded in the state, thus far, in the current year.
However, reversing the trend of zero fatalities established since 2016, three fatalities were recorded in 2022.On March 18, 2022, three persons were killed while another was injured in an explosion in the Durtlang Mual Veng locality of Aizawl District in Mizoram. Though the explosion was initially believed to be a cylinder blast, on-site investigations led to the recovery of 900 detonators. The National Investigation Agency (NIA) is investigating the case.
The last civilian killing before this was reported on October 15, 2014, when the bodies of two non-tribals were found near the Tuikhurhlu area in Aizawl District. Since March 6, 2000, the state has recorded nine insurgency-linked civilian fatalities.
The last insurgency-linked fatality (prior to March 18, 2022) was reported on March 28, 2015, when three Policemen were killed and another two were injured in an attack by HPC-Democrats (HPC-D) on a convoy accompanying a group of Members of the Legislative Assembly near Zokhawthiang in Aizawl District. The three MLAs, R.L. Pianmawia, Lalawmpuii Chawngthu and Lalthanliana, escaped unhurt. 19 Security Force (SF) personnel have been killed in the state since March 6, 2000.
Further, 11 insurgents have been killed in the state since March 6, 2000. The last such killing was reported on March 5, 2007, when suspected Hmar People’s Convention-Democracy (HPC-D) cadres killed six Hmar National Army (HNA) insurgents in an area along the Mizoram-Manipur border.
Since March 6, 2000, the state has recorded a total of 39 insurgency-linked fatalities.
One of the most pressing security challenges, despite long established peace and stability in the state, is the issue of the flow of illicit arms and ammunition into the state, prompted by the deteriorating security situation in Myanmar since the February 1, 2021, military coup. There has been a considerable upsurge in the incident of recoveries of weapons and explosives in the state since, with at least 25 incidents of recovery being reported. Moreover, of the 40 persons arrested in the state since February 1, 2021, 16 are from Myanmar, from insurgent groups such as the Chin National Front (CNF) and the Maraland Defence Force (MDF).
Myanmar and Mizoram share a porous border of 510 kilometers. Following the 2021 military coup in Myanmar, many ‘refugees’ continue to pour in from the Chin State of Myanmar into the border districts of Mizoram, such as Champhai, Lawngtlai, Siaha, Saitual, Hnahthial and Serchhip.
Mizoram has sheltered nearly 30,400 such refugees in 160 relief camps along the border, across eight of the 11 Districts of the state. Most of the refugees belong to the Kuki-Chin community and share similar cultural, ethnic and linguistic affinities with the Mizo people.
The migration of refugees continues despite the Government of India’s (GoI’s) refusal to grant 'refugee' status to the Kuki-Chins from Myanmar on legal grounds, since India is not a signatory to the 1951 UN Convention relating to the Status of Refugees, and its 1967 Protocol.
Reports claim that since the coup in Myanmar, the Mizoram State Government has received minimal support from the GoI to address the issue of Kuki-Chin refugees. This has fueled a sense of disenchantment towards the GoI within the state government and local civil society circles, and risks further alienating the Mizos.
Meanwhile, over 200 Kuki-Chin people fled their homes in Cheihkhiang and three other nearby villages in the Chittagong Hill tracts (CHT) of Bangladesh, following an armed conflict between the Bangladesh Army, allegedly in collusion with the Arakan Army and the KCNA, on November 16-17, 2022. The military operations aimed to prevent the CHT from turning into a hotbed of Islamist terror. Bangladesh's security establishment is weary of cooperation between Islamist terror groups such as the Jamaa'tul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya (JAFHS) and the KCNA. The KCNA is suspected to be training JAFHS cadres.
These 200 refugees have taken shelter in southern Mizoram's Lawngtlai District. Mizoram shares a 318-kilometres stretch of international border with Bangladesh. The Mizoram government and civil society organizations have accused the Border Security Force (BSF), which guards the Indo-Bangladesh border, of preventing refugees from Bangladesh from entering the state. Indeed, K. Vanlalvena, a Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Indian Parliament) Member from Mizoram, asserted that the prevention of "ethnic Mizo" from Bangladesh from entering India would amount to "discrimination on ethnic grounds" as, in the 1970s, thousands of displaced Chakmas (mostly Buddhists) from Bangladesh were allowed to enter India and settle in Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh. He alleged that, on January 6, 2023, the BSF intercepted 150 Kuki-Chin refugees from Bangladesh along the Mizoram-Bangladesh border.
The state's response to the refugee crisis is guided by cultural and ethnic considerations, sometimes at variance with the GoI's directives. Since the refugee issue is transnational and involves multiple stakeholders, a clear and concise policy is needed to overcome the emerging security and humanitarian challenges.
In addition, the issue of the 'Bru' tribes remains an enduring problem in Mizoram. The Brus, also referred to as Reangs, are inhabitants of Mizoram's Mamit, Kolasib and Lunglei Districts. Due to tribal rivalries over the Mizo groups' contention that the Brus "are not indigenous to Mizoram," ethnic violence forced thousands of Bru to leave their homes in Mizoram. More than 30,000 were displaced from Mizoram to Tripura in 1997, following ethnic violence. An agreement signed between the GoI and the Mizoram Bru Refugees Displaced Forum on July 3, 2018, for repatriation of the Bru tribals to Mizoram, is yet to be implemented. Repatriation of the internally displaced Brus is an ongoing challenge, since the Mizos of Mizoram continue to contest the indigeneity of Brus to the state. Meanwhile, in December 2022, 2,000 Bru voters, out of over 11,000 from Mizoram, were deleted from the state voters’ list following their enrollment in neighboring Tripura's electoral rolls.
Further, the interstate border dispute between Assam and Mizoram is an ongoing issue that both sides are trying to resolve. Most recently, on April 10, 2023, the Mizoram Government submitted a list of villages along the Assam-Mizoram border in the Cachar, Karimganj and Hailakandi Districts of Assam, to the Assam Government, over which Aizawl makes a territorial claim. The Assam Government has forwarded the list of villages submitted by Mizoram to the Deputy Commissioners of Cachar, Karimganj and Hailakandi for verification and clarification of details. Assam and Mizoram share a boundary of 164.6 kilometers.
The drug trade is another significant security challenge, with Mizoram lying on the edges of the Golden Triangle. Anti-smuggling operations by the State Police, the Assam Rifles and the Department of Excise and Narcotics resulted in record drug hauls, with narcotics worth INR 4.63 billion seized from different parts of the state between 2021 and 2023.
Mizoram has remained relatively free of insurgency-related violence after the conclusion of the Mizo Accord in 1986. The Accord is hailed as a model of peace and as the most successful peace accord in the region. However, troubling legacy issues such as the repatriation of the internally displaced Bru tribes from Tripura and the Assam-Mizoram interstate boundary issue, remain unresolved. The state is also affected by exogenous conflicts in Myanmar and Bangladesh, leading to increased weapons and explosives smuggling, a heavy influx of refugees, and movement of Kuki-Chin militants from neighboring countries. All these issues need to be addressed through bilateral engagements with Myanmar and Bangladesh. The present challenges in Mizoram can be met with the evolution and refinement of the security and other policy praxis under the Look East and Act East Policy, to ensure that the hard-won peace in the state endures.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia April 10-16, 2023
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
BANGLADESH
CHT
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
Afghan women launches 'Women's Justice Movement' against Taliban oppression, says report: Afghan women has launched 'Women's Justice Movement' against Taliban oppression. In a newsletter released on April 13, the movement stated that they will not remain silent and will fight for women's human rights until the end of their lives. Hasht e Subh, April 14, 2023.
Taliban bans entry of women to restaurants with gardens or green spaces in Herat Province: On April 10, Taliban banned women from restaurants with gardens or green spaces in Herat Province. Baz Mohammad Nazir, a deputy official from the Taliban Ministry of Vice and Virtue's directorate in the province, said, "After repeated complaints from scholars and ordinary people, we set limits and closed these restaurants." Bakhtar News Agency, April 11, 2023.
Only 137 terrorists are now active in J&K, say sources: Only 137 active terrorists are reportedly active in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), with foreign terrorists (90) outnumbering local terrorists (47), according to a security review meeting held in J&K. Local recruitment has declined, and several local terrorists have been eliminated over time, leading to a decrease in local terrorist activity. The Times of India, April 14, 2023.
India conveys concern over misuse of UK's asylum status by the pro-Khalistan elements: India conveyed its concerns on the misuse of United Kingdom's (UK) asylum status by the pro-Khalistan elements to aid and abet terrorist activities in India during the fifth India-UK Home Affairs Dialogue (HAD) held in New Delhi on April 12, 2023. India also requested better cooperation with UK and increased monitoring of UK based Pro-Khalistan Extremists and take appropriate proactive action. PIB, April 13, 2023.
Global Khalistani network using 'Twitter bot army' to promote violence against Hindus and India, says NCRI report: Recently published research by Network Contagion Research Institute (NCRI), a United States (US)-based independent organization that forecast cyber-social threats, revealed that Khalistani extremists are using an army of bots or fake Twitter accounts to promote acts of vandalism and violence in Australia against Indians and the Indian government establishment. Since January 2023, NCRI found 359 active accounts that worked in networks of 20 to 50 accounts. NCRI, April 12, 2023.
India is facing a serious challenge of cross-border supply of illicit weapons using drones, says India's Permanent Ambassador to the UN Ruchira Kamboj: Speaking at the United Nations Security Council's (UNSC) open debate on "Threats to International Peace and Security Risks Stemming from Violations of Agreements Regulating the Exports of Weapons and Military Equipments" held on April 10, Permanent Ambassador of India to the United Nations (UN), Ruchira Kamboj stated that India is facing a 'serious challenge' of cross-border supply of illicit weapons by means of drones, which cannot be possible without active support from the authorities in control of those territories. Hindustan Times, April 12, 2023.
54 youths who got passports travelled to Pakistan for terror training, says J&K Police: Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Police detected as many as 54 youths who were wrongly given passport service during 2017-2018, and all of them went to Pakistan and received training in arms, ammunition and explosives at terrorist training camps. A J&K Police spokesperson added that "many of them were sent back to J&K via the Line of Control (LoC), and 26 of them lost their lives during either the crossing or encounters in the region. The Criminal Investigation Department (CID) of the Police was able to rescue 12 of the young boys after their return from Pakistan". Hindustan Times, April 11, 2023.
India 'disengages' trade talks with UK over Sikh extremist group attacks: India has "disengaged" from trade talks with United Kingdom (UK) after accusing it of failing to condemn the Sikh extremist group (pro-Khalistanis) that attacked the Indian High Commission in London in UK on March 19, 2023. Senior British government sources have informed that the Indian government has made it clear that there would be no progress without a public condemnation of the Khalistan movement. The Times, April 6, 2023.
'Undeclared martial law in Balochistan', says Paank report: Baloch National Movement's (BNM) human rights department, Paank, has presented its report of March 2023, titled: 'Undeclared martial law in Balochistan', according to which seven Baloch persons were killed and 58 others disappeared. The Paank report said in March only 31 persons out of thousands of enforced disappearances were released from the detention centres of the Army, who were subjected to mental and physical torture during their imprisonment. The Balochistan Post, April 13, 2023.
Afghan soil still being used by TTP for attacks on Pakistan, says Defence Minister Khawaja Asif: Defence Minister Khawaja Asif on April 11 said that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is still using Afghan soil for launching attacks on Pakistan - especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). "Islamabad has good relations with the ruling Taliban government in Kabul. However, the Afghan authorities have not succeeded in stopping the use of their territory in attacks on Pakistan," he said in an interview with the United States (US) broadcaster. Geo News, April 12, 2023.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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