South Asia Terrorism Portal
Arunachal Pradesh: Troubles on the Margin M.A. Athul Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On December 8, 2018, an Army trooper identified as Lance Naik Sukhchain Singh was killed and another three, identified as Jashbir Singh, Lance Naik Hardip Singh and Naik Subedar Yashbindar Singh, were wounded in an encounter with cadres of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) near Yanu village in Longding District.
On December 6, 2018, a ‘captain’ of NSCN-IM (name not available) was killed in an encounter with the Army near Longkai village in Longding District. Security Forces (SFs) recovered two AK-56 rifles and a large quantity of ammunition from the encounter site.
Separately, on November 18, 2018, three militants of NSCN-Unification (NSCN-U) were killed in separate encounters near Borduria and Laptang village in Tirap District. Two of the three dead were identified as Joiwang Mongchan and Ponngam Kamhua aka Vicky, while the identity of the third was not specified.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Arunachal Pradesh recorded 14 fatalities in eight incidents (one civilian, two SF personnel and 11 militants) in 2018, as against six fatalities (all militants) in six separate incidents through 2017.The State recorded nine fatalities (seven militants and two SF personnel) in four separate incidents in 2016.
First civilian fatality was recorded in the State since 2015, when a civilian identified as Ali was killed in crossfire between NSCN-IM and NSCN-U cadres at Demoli in Tirap District. The last civilian fatality before 2018 was recorded on February 6, 2015, at Monmao in Changlang District, when two civilian porters were killed in an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blast.
In 2018, incidents of insurgency-related fatalities were recorded in four of the State’s 25 Districts, with Longding recording three incidents, Tirap two and Changlang and Namsai one each. Insurgency related fatalities in 2017 were recorded only in two Districts –Longding (five incidents) and Tirap (one incident).
Longding, Changlang and Tirap, the Districts which have been most affected by insurgent violence, share borders with Myanmar, where militants have set up their bases and hideouts. The State of Arunachal Pradesh, shares a 520-kilometre-long international border with Myanmar. The border areas have witnessed significant insurgent violence. Between January 1, 2000, and January 27, 2019, these three Districts have accounted for 103 fatalities: Tirap 69(three civilians, eight SF personnel and 58 militants); Changlang, 20 (three civilians, three SF personnel and 14 militants); and Longding 14 (one SF trooper and 13 militants).
In view of these developments, the Government of India (GoI) extended the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) in the three Districts (Tirap, Changlang and Longding), as well as in eight Police Station areas bordering Assam, by six months from October 3, 2018.
Moreover, the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Home Affairs, in its latest report which was released on July 21, 2018, stated that Arunachal Pradesh had recorded a rise in the number of insurgency-related incidents, unlike other north-eastern States:
Arunachal Pradesh borders Myanmar, a country where insurgent camps and infrastructure are located. The groups operating in neighbouring States such as Nagaland and Assam use Arunachal Pradesh as a transit route to and from their safe havens in Myanmar. Although the insurgent groups have not engaged in high profile violence in Arunachal, they use the State as a logistical base and for extortion and recruitment, resulting in a spill-over effect in Arunachal Pradesh.
This spill-over of militancy has also led to a rising number of abductions for ransom. In the latest such incident, reported on November 10, 2018, suspected United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I) militants abducted a storekeeper, Debabrata Deb,at the Sati Tea Estate in Namsai District. His whereabouts thereafter are currently unknown. According to Arunachal Pradesh Police records, 70 incidents of abduction for ransom were recorded just between January and June 2018. In 2017, between January and November, according to available Police records, 106 incidents of abduction were recorded in the State (a majority of such incidents go unreported, as victim families seek a ‘private’ settlement with abductors).
SFs have been fairly effective in countering militancy in the State. According to partial data collected by SATP, in addition to the 11 fatalities recorded through 2018, at least 70 militants have been arrested in the State in 39 incidents, including 22 National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K), 14 NSCN-Reformation (NSCN-R), 11 NSCN-IM, nine National Democratic Front of Bodoland-Saraigwra (NDFB-S), four militants each from NSCN-U, ULFA-I and Eastern Naga National Government Group (ENNG); and one Tai Singpho Security Force (TSSF) militant. The group affiliation of one militant remains unspecified.
A potential flash point in Arunachal Pradesh is the controversial Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB) 2019, which was passed in the Lok Sabha (Lower House of Parliament) on January 8, 2019, provoking protests across the Northeast. The region-wide shutdown called by the Northeast Students Organisation (NESO) on January 8 was supported by the All Arunachal Pradesh Students’ Union (AAPSU), a State level students’ organisation. AAPSU President Hawa Bagang had stated on January 7, “If the Bill is passed, we will be left with no option but to take up arms to protect our indigenous population.”
The CAB issue is compounded by the presence of Chakma and Hajong refugees who officially number to more than 54,000. They have settled in the State since the 1960’s, after they were displaced from Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) in erstwhile East Pakistan (present day Bangladesh). In September 2017, the GoI’s attempt to implement the Supreme Court’s order to grant citizenship to Chakmas and Hajongs, had provoked violence after AAPSU called for a day long strike.
On June 19, 2018, AAPSU further reiterated its hostility towards Chakmas and Hajongs when it stated that AAPSU and the indigenous people of the State would never accept the citizenship rights of the Chakmas and Hajongs. AAPSU General Secretary Tobom Dai, asserted that Chakmas and Hajongs “should not demand same rights as indigenous people from the State.”
On December 30, 2018, AAPSU had demanded creation of a separate department for strict vigilance and monitoring of refugee affairs, and sought cancellation of the Arunachal Pradesh Scheduled Tribe (APST) certificates, jobs, etc., obtained by non-locals. Moreover, they also demanded the creation of a separate department in the Government for monitoring refugee affairs.
The Government has sought to expedite infrastructure development in this strategically sensitive and isolated state. In 2017, the 9.15 kilometre long Bhupen Hazarika Bridge was inaugurated, connecting Arunachal Pradesh with Assam. On December 25, 2018, the 4.94 kilometre long Bogibeel Bridge was inaugurated, connecting Dibrugarh and Dhemaji Districts of Assam, which border western Arunachal Pradesh, facilitating easier transport. Moreover, on December 21, 2018 Union Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari laid the foundation for 11 two-lane roads, three at Roing in the Lower Dibang Valley District (96.47 kilometres in length, and costing INR 21.146 billion) and eight at Ziro in Lower Subansiri District (472 kilometres in length and costing INR 55.84 billion).
Although Arunachal Pradesh has not faced any significant or noteworthy indigenous insurgency, the State continues to face persisting threats from the spill-over of the other insurgencies in the Northeast and the militant sanctuaries in neighbouring Myanmar. The CAB has inflamed the political situation across the region, and Arunachal cannot remain unaffected if disorders rise again in what has long been an unstable territory. The security challenges can only be compounded further, as efforts to fast-forward long-neglected developmental projects intensify.
Bihar: Remains of a Rebellion Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
In the night of January 15, 2019, Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres raided Garurbad village under Chakai Police Station limits in Jamui District and killed a gram kacheri (village court) secretary, Mohammad Usman (40), and his neighbour, Mohammad Ghulam (38), on suspicion of ‘Police informers’. Chakai Police Station in-charge Chandeshwar Paswan disclosed, "The Maoists entered the houses of the two men and dragged them out of bed. The duo was beaten up before being shot dead." Usman’s wife, Sabreen Khatoon, also received a bullet injury in the scuffle. The Maoists left behind a poster written in Hindi in bold red ink that read, "The punishment for being police informers is death.”
This is the lone Left Wing Extremist (LWE)-linked fatality recorded in Bihar this year (data till January 27, 2019).
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Bihar recorded 14 fatalities, including nine civilians, three Security Force (SF) personnel, and two LWEs, in Maoist-related violence in 2018. In 2017, there were a total of 24 fatalities, including 15 civilians, and nine Maoists. Thus, a decline of 58.33 per cent was recorded in terms of overall fatalities. Bihar ranked fifth in terms of fatalities (14 out of a total of 412 countrywide) recorded in a State in 2018, preceded by Chhattisgarh topping the list with 248 fatalities, Maharashtra with 58 fatalities, Jharkhand with 57 fatalities and Odisha with 32 fatalities.
There was a surge in SF fatalities in the State in 2018, from none in 2017 to three in 2018. 2017 was the first year since the formation of the CPI-Maoist on September 21, 2004, to register zero SF fatalities. 2018, nevertheless, saw the second lowest fatality recorded in the State since 2004, with 2011 and 2015 also registering three fatalities each. The highest of 29 fatalities was recorded way back in 2005. In 2017, SFs achieved their best ever kill ratio against the Maoists, killing nine Maoists without losing of their own personnel. In 2018, however, the SF registered an adverse kill ratio of 1.5:1.
The SFs killed two Maoists in 2018, in comparison to nine in 2017, and nine in 2016 as well. At peak, 52 LWEs were killed in 2005. By contrast, a low of two LWE fatalities were registered thrice: in 2013, 2015, and 2018. No LWE fatality has been recorded in the State in the current year, thus far (data till January 27, 2019).
Civilian fatalities, a crucial index of the security situation in an area, also registered a decline of 40 per cent in 2018, in comparison to 2017, from 15 to nine. At the peak of the insurgency, a high of 54 civilian fatalities was recorded in 2010. A previous low of four civilian fatalities was recorded in 2015. At least two fatalities have already been recorded in the current year (data till January 27, 2019).
Significantly, no major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities), took place in 2018, in comparison to two such incidents in which three civilians, and four Maoists were killed in 2017.
A decline in other violent activities by Maoists was also visible through 2018. There were four reported incidents of abduction, in which seven persons were abducted, of which two were killed and the others freed after ‘warnings’; six incidents of arson; two incidents of bomb blasts; and no attacks on Railway property. During 2017, the Maoists were involved in eight incidents of abduction in which 18 persons were abducted of which six were killed and others released after ‘warnings’; nine incidents of arson; three incidents of bomb blasts; and three incidents of attack on Railway property.
The Maoists issued two bandh (shut down strike) calls on different issues in 2018, in comparison to five such calls in 2017. The Maoists had given four such calls in the State in 2016.
Meanwhile, SFs arrested at least 104 LWEs in the State, including four 'zonal commanders,' four 'sub-zonal commanders,' three 'commanders,' and an 'area commander,' of the CPI-Maoist, in addition to 100 arrests in 2017. Till January 27, 2019, another four LWEs had already been arrested in the current year.
On June 20, 2018, the Bihar Government revised its surrender-cum-rehabilitation policy for the Maoists, enhancing financial assistance to those who chose to return to the mainstream. Under the revised scheme, CPI-Maoist 'Central Committee (CC) members' and ‘Politburo members’ would be given INR 500,000 on surrender, instead of INR 250,000 given earlier. Similarly, other Maoists would get INR 250,000 on surrender instead of INR 150,000 given earlier. Apart from this one-time amount, Maoists who lay down arms would receive a monthly stipend of INR 6,000 for 36 months, instead of INR 4,000 given earlier. They will also be given job-oriented skill training. The State recorded the surrender of 17 LWEs in 2017, in addition to four surrenders in 2018.
In addition to CPI-Maoist related incidents, activities of Maoist splinter groups such as the People’s Liberation Front of India (PLFI) and the Tritiya Prastuti Committee (TPC), mainly based in Jharkhand, were also reported in Bihar. On July 14, 2018, three TPC cadres were arrested in two separate incidents in Rohtas and Kaimur Districts: Dadan Kharwar from Khukhma area in Kaimur District; and Ramdular and Nawal, from Salma village in Rohtas District. On July 10, 2018, two PLFI cadres identified as Satyendra Yadav and Rakesh Kumar were arrested in Masaurhi near Patna in Patna District. The arrested PLFI duo was demanding a ransom of INR 50 million from the director of a construction company. Police also recovered a katta (locally assembled gun) and a pistol from them. Three such incidents related to PLFI (one) TPC (two) were recorded through 2017.
SF personnel also recovered a huge number of arms, ammunition and explosives in Bihar. On August 8, 2018, Police recovered 340 bags containing 17,000 kilograms of ammonium nitrate, an important ingredient used in the manufacture of explosives, suspected to be supplied to the CPI-Maoist, from the house of an explosives’ supplier in Dhouri village under the Belhar Block (administrative division) in Banka District. On June 10, 2018, Police unearthed a mini gun factory and arrested its owner Naresh Yadav, a CPI-Maoist linkman, at Kachanpur village under Aanti Police Station in Gaya District. 21 half-finished country pistols, several half-finished revolvers, arms manufacturing equipment, Naxal literature and other incriminating objects were recovered from Yadav’s house. A mechanic, Began Mistri, who assisted Yadav in manufacturing illegal firearms, was also arrested.
A March 14, 2018, report, disclosed that the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) had launched an offensive against illegal poppy cultivation, especially in Naxal dominated areas in the States of Bihar and Jharkhand, to financially cripple the Maoists. The report further revealed that, in 2017-18, SSB battalions had successfully destroyed poppy cultivation approximately spread across 550 acres of land. The SSB used Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) in the operation, to scan for illegal poppy cultivation. After destroying the crops, SSB lodged a First Information Report (FIR) with the local Police against the owners of the land.
According to a December 29, 2018, report, the Enforcement Directorate (ED), also confiscated illegal property worth INR 150 million belonging to five top Maoists – Pradyuman Sharma (in-charge of the CPI-Maoist’s Magadh Zone); Sandeep Yadav, a CPI-Maoist leader; Binay Yadav, a top ‘commander’ and active member of the CPI-Maoist Bihar Regional Committee (BRC); and Musafir Sahni and Anil Ram, both top Maoist leaders of north Bihar – in the State. The properties were located in Muzaffarpur, Vaishali, Gaya, Aurangabad and Jehanabad, as well as in Ranchi in Jharkhand, and in Delhi. Sharma carries a reward of INR 50,000 on his head and faces 51 criminal cases pending against him (yet to be arrested); Sandeep Yadav carries a reward of INR 500,000 on his head and is wanted in as many as 88 criminal cases; Binay Yadav carries a reward of INR 1.8 million on his head (absconding); the remaining two Maoists (Musafir Sahni and Anil Ram) are in jail.
Despite significant gains, however, concerns persist. December 3, 2018, report indicated that Maoist posters, asking youth to join “the armed class struggle to liberate poor and downtrodden from the landlords”, were put up by the People’s Liberation Guerrilla Army (PLGA), the armed wing of the CPI-Maoist, on the walls of the Government schools at Guriya village in Imamganj in Gaya District. The Maoists have sought applications from young boys and girls who intend to join the rebel group. The posters, put up by Bihar-Jharkhand Special Area Committee (BJSAC) of the PLGA at Imamganj and Dumaria, asked the youth, mostly college and school students (including girls), to submit their applications between December 2, 2018, and January 2, 2019, to join the armed class struggle against oppressors. The CPI-Maoist asked such “interested youths” to attend their foundation day celebrations on December 8. City Superintendent of Police (SP) A.K. Singh claimed, “This is arguably the first-of-its-kind incident where Maoists have put up posters in Gaya District for recruitment of rebels.”
Worryingly, a January 26, 2018, report, citing the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF)’s intelligence wing, revealed that CPI-Maoist leaders from Bihar and Jharkhand had started concentrating in the region to strengthen their bases and were hiring new faces and creating special committees in new areas in an effort to revive their network in the region, after SFs inflicted a series of operations against them in eastern Bihar. The Maoists had also extended ‘zonal’ and ‘sub-zonal committees’ in eastern Bihar and areas in neighbouring Jharkhand. Intelligence sources also said that, under the aegis of the Eastern Regional Bureau (ERB), several rebel wings such as the ‘Bihar-Jharkhand area committee’, ‘Eastern Bihar Committee’ and ‘Eastern Jharkhand special area committee’, had started functioning. Prabesh aka Sahadev Soren, a native of Giridih, had been made in-charge of the ERB.
Disturbingly, out of the State’s 38 Districts, four – Aurangabad, Gaya, Jamui, and Lakhisarai, are among the 30 Districts , across seven States in the country, categorised as ‘worst Maoist-affected’ by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA). Further, on April 16, 2018, UMHA also disclosed that the number of Maoist-affected Districts covered under the Security Related Expenditure Scheme (SRE) scheme had decreased from 126 in 10 States to 90 in 11 States. 16 of these 90 Districts were in Bihar: Arwal, Aurangabad, Banka, East Champaran, Gaya, Jamui, Jehanabad, Kaimur, Lakhisarai, Munger, Muzaffarpur, Nalanda, Nawada, Rohtas, Vaishali, and West Champaran. According to the SATP database, Maoist activities were recorded in at least 21 Districts in 2018 as against 19 in 2017.
Meanwhile, on December 13, 2018, the State Government sanctioned a sum of INR 700 million for setting up 28 fortified Police Stations (each costing INR 25 million), in LWE-affected Districts of Bihar. Cabinet Secretariat, (Bihar Government) Department Special Secretary, Upendra Nath Pandey disclosed that the nod had also been given for setting up visitors' rooms at 660 Police Stations across the State, for which INR 341.7 million would be released; and for replacement of discarded Police vehicles with new ones; at a cost of INR 587.3 million.
Further, in order to boost development in Maoist-affected Districts of the State, according to a June 20, 2018, report, the State Cabinet approved INR 12.29 billion for acquisition of land, utility shifting, environmental clearance and other work related to the construction of 865 kilometers of roads and small bridges in five Maoist hit Districts: Aurangabad, Gaya, Jamui, Banka and Muzaffarpur. Special Secretary Pandey disclosed,
Further, on December 3, 2018, Chief Minister (CM) Nitish Kumar inaugurated the much-awaited state-of-the-art Police Academy, developed across an area of 133 acres at a cost of about INR 2.9 billion, at Rajgir in Nalanda District. The Academy will able to train up to 4,000 recruits at a time.
The LWE threat is visibly declining, but Maoist efforts to revive their networks in the region cannot be ignored. State efforts at security and developmental consolidation are vital to establishing an enduring peace.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia January 21-27, 2019
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
Total
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
Maharashtra
INDIA (Total)
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The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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