South Asia Terrorism Portal
Punjab: Increasing Fragility Tushar Ranjan Mohanty Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On June 27, 2023, the Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) arrested 10 terrorists, including an Islamic State woman terrorist, during multiple raids across Punjab, Pakistan. The raids were conducted in Multan, Bahawalpur and Dera Ghazi Khan Districts. Explosive materials, hand grenades, material used in making suicide jackets, and cash were also recovered from the arrested terrorists.
On June 24, the CTD arrested nine suspected terrorists along with arms and ammunition in 33 separate Intelligence-Based Operations (IBOs) in several Districts of Punjab. The arrestees were identified as Naveed Khan, Ghulam Hussain, Ghulam Abbas, Owais Ahmed, and Akhwanzada of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP); Muhammad Saif Afridi, Muhammad Hussain Masdani, and Umar Ismail of the Islamic State; and Khurram Shahzad of Al-Qaeda.
On June 21, the CTD arrested four TTP terrorists during IBOs in different cities of Punjab. The terrorists, identified as Zahid, Naimat, Zubair and Abdul Ghafoor, were arrested in Sheikhupura, Sargodha, Sahiwal and Rawalpindi cities. Explosive materials, equipment, mobile phones and cash were recovered from their possession.
On June 17, the CTD arrested six suspected terrorists during IBOs in different areas of the province – three from Multan, two from Gujranwala, and one from Dera Ghazi Khan (DG Khan). The arrested cadres were Liaquatullah, Nadeem Khan and Inayatullah, all from TTP; Muhammad Younis of the Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP); Muhammad Ammar, Islamic State; and Ijaz Ahmed, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ).
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Security Forces have already arrested at least 152 terrorists of different outfits from Punjab, in 2023 (data till July 2).
The Punjab CTD annual performance report for the year 2022 released on January 3, 2023, stated that 1,225 IBOs were conducted across the province, in which 244 suspects were arrested and 782 recoveries were made. The recoveries included 64.36 kilograms of explosives, 48 hand grenades, 253 detonators, seven batteries and 215 meters of prima cord, three SMGs, 40 pistols, 324 bullets and three magazines.
Though the number of terrorists among the 244 arrested suspects was not specified, according to SATP, 71 terrorists were arrested in 2022. On year-on-year basis, 2023, with six months still to go, has already recorded the highest number of terrorist arrests since 2019, when there were 277 such arrests. There were 39 such arrests in 2020 and 51 in 2021.
Meanwhile, another report released by Punjab Police on January 12, 2023, revealed that the Police had killed 612 suspects in as many as 544 Police encounters between 2018 and 2022 (till September). The report stated that 67 suspects were killed in shootouts in 2018, 69 in 2019, 166 in 2020, 186 in 2021, and 124 (till September) in 2022. The number of terrorists in these fatalities was not specified, but SATP data indicates that at least 40 terrorists were killed during period: 2018 (14), 2019 (seven), 2020 (13), 2021 (six) and 2022 (0). While one terrorist was killed in the remaining period of 2022 (in the month of November), 11 terrorists have already bene killed in 2023.
Some of the prominent terrorists killed during 2023 and 2022 included:
April 18, 2023: The CTD killed two senior TTP terrorists during a shootout in the Rajanpur District of Punjab.
February 17, 2023: The CTD repulsed an attack by terrorists on SFs in the Kala Bagh Town of Mianwali District in Punjab, killing a TTP ‘commander’, Habib-ur-Rehman.
February 8, 2023: One TTP ‘commander’, Irfanullah, was killed following an exchange of fire between CTD and a group of terrorists in the Khanewal District of Punjab.
Punjab Police data indicates that the number of Police officers killed in the line of duty during this period (2018 to September 2022) was 57. No SF fatality was recorded between October and December 2022, according to SATP data, but three SF personnel have already been killed in the current year.
Meanwhile, civilian fatalities in terrorism-linked violence have been on rise since 2021 after a low of three in 2020. The number jumped to nine in 2021 and increased further to 10 in 2022. Six civilian deaths have already been recorded in the current year, underlining the worsening security situation in the province.
Meanwhile, TTP is trying to further strengthen its base in Punjab. Indeed, according to a June 15, 2023, report, TTP announced establishment of two new ‘administrative units’ – North Punjab, headed by Syed Hilal Ghazi; and South Punjab, headed by Muhammad Umar Muawiya.
It is significant that Samaa TV in a report on March 2, 2023, quoted an unnamed CTD official as stating that around two dozen terrorists were in touch with their handlers in Afghanistan and Syria, and were planning to hit sensitive installations in south Punjab. The report also noted that CTD teams had arrested 89 TTP operatives over a period of 11 months in different cities of Punjab.
Inputs further indicate that TTP is now collaborating with local criminal groups. On April 21, 2023, Usman Anwar, Inspector General (IG) of Punjab Police revealed that TTP was collaborating with miscreants and criminals in the area, to disrupt peace. According to Anwar, CTD had confirmed phone calls between TTP and Katchi gang criminals in the area, tying TTP to organized crime groups. He was speaking to the media after an operation against criminals in the Katcha Rajwani area of Sadiqabad tehsil (revenue unit) in Rahim Yar Khan District. The Punjab Police had launched a ‘grand operation’ against robbers, dacoits and kidnappers in the katcha area on April 9, 2023. The katcha (riverine) area of south Punjab is spread over 15,000 square kilometres on both sides of the Indus River. The forces launched the operation against criminals hiding there after it had become a ‘no-go’ area for law-enforcement agencies.
As the political, economic and security environment in the country worsens, terrorist activities have also increased on the ground, in Punjab, as well as in the rest of Pakistan. Despite operational successes, this downward spiral is unlikely to be checked unless a high measure of stability is restored across the country, and the inherent contradictions – particularly the increasingly strained relations with the Afghan Taliban, which have given the TTP safe haven and spaces for consolidation across the border – are not addressed.
ARSA: Expanding Menace Afsara Shaheen Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On June 19, 2023, a Rohingya youth, identified as Iman Hossain, was killed and another was injured in a gunfight between the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO) at Balukhali Rohingya Camp-8 in the Ukhiya Upazila (Sub-District) of Cox's Bazar District.
On June 13, 2023, one person, Bashir Ullah, was killed in a gunfight between ARSA and RSO at the H/32 block of Camp-10 in Ukhiya.
On June 5, 2023, a group of eight to ten ARSA operatives shot dead a madrassa (seminary) student, Mohammad Bashir, at Kutupalong refugee camp in Ukhiya.
According to partial data compiled by the by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM), at least nine persons have been killed in ARSA-linked violence in 2023 (data till July 2), including four ARSA cadres. There were four such fatalities in 2022 (including one ARSA cadre) and one (ARSA cadre) in 2021.
Meanwhile, SFs have arrested at least 31 ARSA operatives in Bangladesh in 2023, four in 2022 and 10 in 2021. Some of the recent arrests included:
June 12, 2023: An ARSA operative and also an accused in six murders, Sabbir Ahmed aka Lalu, was arrested by the Armed Police Battalion (APBn) from Balukhali camp in Ukhiya.
May 21, 2023: A suspected ARSA operative, Rahmat Kabir, was arrested with a firearm by the APBn from Camp-9 in Ukhiya.
May 10, 2023: A top ARSA ‘commander’, Mohammad Zubair, was arrested by the APBn in Ukhiya.
ARSA was formed following the riots in the Rakhine State of Myanmar in 2012, in which ethnic Rohingya Muslims were targeted by ethnic Rakhine Buddhists. It, however, first came into prominence in October 2016 when it attacked three police outposts in the Maungdaw and Rathedaung townships in Myanmar, killing nine Police officers, provoking massive retaliatory violence by state Forces and fuelling a wave of distress migration of Rohingyas into Bangladesh.
Reports in 2018 indicated ARSA was responsible for two 2017 massacres in which up to 99 Hindu residents in the northern Rakhine state of Myanmar were murdered, including children. Further, reports of ARSA targeting the small Christian Rohingya community living in the Bangladeshi refugee camps as well as Rohingya civilians working with international humanitarian organisations surfaced throughout 2019 and 2020. ARSA has also come under fire for its claimed role in the 2016–2017 killings of moderate Rohingya community leaders in Rakhine State, a trend that continues in the camps in Bangladesh. ARSA was widely implicated in the high-profile September 2021 murder of Mohib Ullah, a moderate Rohingya leader who was shot dead outside the office of the Arakan Rohingya Society for Peace and Human Rights, the organisation he led. However, ARSA denied any involvement in the killing.
During 2016 and 2017, ARSA leaders had started visiting certain Rohingya areas in Myanmar to recruit locals. They would then ask each community to ‘contribute’ five to ten individuals for ‘basic training’. After completing their initial training, new ARSA members went back to their communities to carry out ‘security responsibilities’, promote active religious observance, and allegedly use violence to silence Rohingyas who opposed their actions or were seen as being too close to the authorities.
For internal communications and recruiting, ARSA used text messages from mobile phones and shortly, the encrypted WhatsApp, while it used Facebook and Twitter to spread its message more publicly. In 2017, Facebook classified ARSA as a "dangerous organisation," which basically put an end to the group's Facebook activity. ARSA maintained a consistent posting schedule on its @ARSA_Official Twitter account, which is still active on the social media site.
Myanmar's Anti-Terrorism Central Committee, meanwhile, declared ARSA a terrorist group on August 25, 2017, in accordance with the country's counter-terrorism law. ARSA is also considered a terrorist group in Malaysia.
ARSA is led by Ataullah abu Ammar Jununi aka Hafiz Tohar, a Rohingya born in Karachi, Pakistan, who grew up in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. Bertin Linter in the report “ARSA linked to foreign extremist groups”, mentions ARSA’s second-ranking leader, as a person known only as ‘Sharif’, who comes from Chittagong in Bangladesh and does not appear in any of the group’s propaganda videos. Sharif reportedly speaks with an Urdu accent, the official language of Pakistan. Other members of the ARSA leadership include a committee of Rohingya émigrés in Saudi Arabia.
ARSA claims it is fighting on behalf of more than a million Rohingya, who have been denied the most basic rights, including citizenship, in Myanmar; as well as against the 'inhuman' condition of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh. In a statement on May 10, 2023, Ataullah declared,
The statement maintains that the only viable option for the safe repatriation of the Rohingya people is the establishment of a 'Safe Zone' under the 'Responsibility to Protect' (R2P).
ARSA operates in the Rakhine State and inside Bangladesh refugee camps.
A February 15, 2023, report placed before the Parliamentary Standing Committee of the Defence Ministry of Bangladesh, stated that ARSA was among 10 terrorist and dacoit gangs active in the Rohingya camps. The report added that Tambru's Konapara Camp, on the ‘zero line’ (Bangladesh-Myanmar border), had become the centre point for ARSA’s organisational operations, training, and control of drug smuggling and terrorist activities, due to a lack of regular patrolling and surveillance. The report stated that ARSA is active in Ukhia, Balukhali, Palangkhali (Ukhiya Sub-District) and Whykong (Teknaf Sub-District) of Bangladesh. Noting that ARSA controlled most of the camps, the report stated that ARSA and the Nabi Hussain dacoit gang often engaged in clashes over dominance and control, resulting in a series of murders.
In a February 24, 2022, interview, ARSA leader Ataullah claimed that his group had a cadre strength of 14,000 in Bangladesh and 2,000 in Myanmar.
Little is known about the financial backers of ARSA, but the International Crisis Group believes funding originates from an unnamed group of supporters in Mecca and Medina in Saudi Arabia. Four banks, including the Islami Bank, Al Arafa Islami Bank, Western Union, and Pubali Bank, which are located in the Rohingya refugee camps in the Cox's Bazar District, have been used by ARSA to receive international funding.
According to a recent report, Rohingya Camps Near the Border — a New Source of Insecurity? released on May 26, 2022, the Bangladesh Police described ARSA as the ‘kingpins’ of the illegal trade across the Bangladesh–Myanmar border. The report added that, though ARSA was a Burmese terrorist organization, the group uses Bangladesh for their arms and Yaba trade (drugs trafficking), to raise revenues.
Interestingly, ARSA has revealed that it had received training from Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). ARSA and the Bangladesh-based Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) are also linked and videos of joint undergoing arms training have surfaced on social media. Indeed, a statement by Ambassador Hau Do Suan, Permanent Representative of Myanmar to the United Nations, on Agenda Item 109 "Measures to Eliminate International Terrorism", at the Sixth Committee of the 74rd Session of the United Nations General Assembly, read:
The threat to security from ARSA in Bangladesh, principally in the Rohingya refugee camps and surrounding area in Cox's Bazar District, has increased manifold in the recent past, as this group has intensified its efforts to establish its dominance in these areas. The resultant clashes with Rohingya camp leaders as well as other insurgent/criminal groups, have enormously vitiated the security environment, and it is likely that this sort of violence will continue.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia June 26 - July 2, 2023
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
BANGLADESH
CHT
INDIA
Chhattisgarh
Jammu and Kashmir
Manipur
India (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
UNAMA reports 3,774 civilian casualties between August 15, 2021 and May 30, 2023: On June 27, the United Nations Assistant Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) reported that between August 15, 2021, and May 30, 2023, it has recorded a total of 3,774 civilian casualties. UNAMA has recorded a total of 3,774 casualties, including 1,095 killed and 2,679 injured, and three quarters of these casualties (2,814 casualties: 701 killed, 2113 injured) were caused by indiscriminate IED attacks. Among those killed and injured were 289 children (75 killed, 214 wounded) and 168 women (64 killed, 104 wounded). Tolo News, June 28, 2023.
We are not under the pressure of any power to 'comprise on Islam', says Taliban supreme leader Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada: Taliban supreme leader, Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada, speaking at the Eid-Al Adha prayer in Kandahar, said we are not under the pressure of any power to 'compromise on Islam'. He further said that we are so independent today that there are no obstacles on the path to implement the real orders of Islam. We are not under pressure from any world power to compromise Islam or not ensure real Islam. Tolo News, June 29, 2023.
Taliban supreme leader orders the release of 2,178 prisoners ahead of Eid-Al Adha: Based on the decree of Taliban's supreme leader, Supreme Court have released 2,178 prisoners ahead of Eid-Al Adha. The Supreme Court in its statement said that at least 489 other prisoners were given reduced sentences for Eid-Al Adha. Tolo News, June 28, 2023.
Afghanistan produced 80 per cent of the World's Opium in 2022, says UNODC report: On June 26, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) reported that Afghanistan produced 80 % of global illicit opium production in 2022, despite the Taliban's ban on opium cultivation. This report further said "the 2023 opium harvest in Afghanistan may see a drastic drop following the Taliban's ban, as early reports suggest reductions in poppy cultivation. The Khaama Press News Agency, June 27, 2023.
Arms used in Manipur violence smuggled in via Myanmar, say intelligence sources: Intelligence sources stated that arms which were used to spread unrest in violence-hit Manipur were smuggled in via Myanmar. According to the information, weapons are being brought to the Myanmar border from the Black Market located on the Myanmar-China border, from where they are being sent to Manipur. The Sangai Express, June 28, 2023.
Unified Command meets to frame anti-Maoist strategy in Chhattisgarh: 'On June 26, the Unified Command in Chhattisgarh held a meeting to assess the situation in Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist)-affected areas, anti-Naxalite [Left Wing Extremist, LWE] operations and welfare projects, and find ways to prevent attacks on political leaders. Chief Minister (CM), Bhupesh Baghel, who chaired the meeting, later said that 650 villages have been freed from the clutches of Naxalism. Times of India, June 28, 2023.
Pakistan sees 79 per cent surge in terror acts in first half of 2023, says PICSS report: Terror activities in the country have soared by 79 per cent during the first half of 2023, said a statistical report released by Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS). The report stated that at least 271 militant attacks took place during the last six months, resulting in the loss of 389 lives and injuring 656 individuals. The situation in the same timeframe last year was way better as compared to the current, as the first half of 2022 saw 151 attacks and 293 deaths, and 487 injuries. Geo News, July 3, 2023.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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