South Asia Terrorism Portal
Destitute in Defence Tushar Ranjan Mohanty Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
In the night of March 25, 2024, four Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) cadres and one Frontier Corps soldier were killed as Security Forces (SFs) thwarted an attack on the PNS Siddique Naval Air Station in the Turbat town of Kech District in Balochistan. An Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) statement disclosed that terrorists attempted to attack PNS Siddique in Turbat and that the attempt was foiled due to the "swift and effective response by the troops ensuring the safety and security of personnel and assets." PNS Siddique is among the biggest naval air stations in the country. The Majeed Brigade of BLA claimed the responsibility for the attack.
On March 20, 2024, eight BLA cadres and two soldiers were killed after the SFs repulsed an attack on the Gwadar Port Authority (GPA) Complex in the Gwadar town (Gwadar District) of Balochistan. A press release from the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) stated that a group of eight terrorists attempted to enter the Port Authority Colony but were successfully thwarted by SF personnel. The Majeed Brigade of the BLA claimed responsibility for the attack. Located at the center of the city, the GPA Complex has several offices related to the Gwadar Port Authority, law enforcement agencies, and staff houses.
On March 21, BLA released a detailed statement regarding what it called the fourth phase of "Operation Zir Pahazag," carried out by its elite unit, the Majeed Brigade, against Pakistani intelligence facilities in Gwadar. According to BLA, the operation targeted the headquarters of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Military Intelligence (MI), allegedly resulting in over 25 deaths among various branches of the SFs. The BLA statement claimed "six personnel, including two commissioned officers of Pakistani military intelligence, eight personnel of ISI and 12 personnel of Pakistani navy and military were eliminated in the attack. Eight fidayeen of BLA Majeed Brigade fought valiantly and made the ultimate sacrifices during today's attack."
On March 19, 2024, three Army personnel were killed when terrorists targeted a supply vehicle of the Army using an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) in the Jafari area of Bolan tehsil (revenue unit) in the Kachhi District of Balochistan. The vehicle was supplying rations to a nearby Army post in the area. BLA claimed responsibility for the attack.
On March 16, 2024, seven soldiers, including two officers were killed in a suicide attack on a SF post in the Mir Ali area of North Waziristan District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). The ISPR stated that six terrorists were also neutralised in the subsequent clearance operation. The Hafiz Gul Bahadur (HGB) affiliated group Jaish Al-Fursan claimed responsibility for the attack on their affiliated encrypted channels through a 'spokesperson' identified as Nasratullah Waziristani.
In addition to these three targeted attacks on Security Establishments in March 2024, there have been several such attacks during first three months of the current year, 2024, prominently including:
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), in the first 85 days of current year, Pakistan has recorded 115 terrorist/ militant attacks on SFs in which 126 SF personnel have been killed, while 168 others sustained injuries. During the corresponding period of 2023, 188 SF personnel were killed and 109 suffered injuries in 65 incidents. The fatalities in 2023 were dramatically inflated as a result of the January 30, 2023, suicide attack at a mosque inside the Police Lines of Peshawar, in which 83 Policemen were killed. However, the frequency of terrorist/militant attacks on SF personnel has almost doubled, from 65 incidents to 115, in the first 85 days of the current year. With 533 SF fatalities in 2023, Pakistan has already crossed the record of the last 10 years in violence against SFs, with an earlier peak of 339 SF personnel killed in 2015. A maximum of 1,012 fatalities was registered in 2009.
Attacks on SF in Pakistan: 2000*-2024*
Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Total
Since the Afghan Taliban gained control in Afghanistan on August 15, 2021, TTP started making deep inroads into KP and the lethality of attacks on SFs in Pakistan's tribal belt spiked. The attack on Pakistan's SFs gained further momentum when the Afghan Taliban-initiated and guided talks between the TTP and the Pakistan Government collapsed on November 28, 2022, after TTP announced an end to the then seven month-long cease fire. In a statement released on Umar Media (TTP's official website), TTP's 'Minister of Defence' "ordered" TTP forces throughout Pakistan "to launch attacks anywhere in the country" in response to Pakistani military operations. The outfit claimed that it chose to end the ceasefire after "the Army and intelligence agencies continue to raid and attack" its forces, "And now our revenge attacks will continue in the whole country."
While TTP and its allied groups are a major concern for Pakistan's security establishment, the probability of TTP's nexus with Baloch insurgent groups in the provision of logistics and training has deepened Pakistan's worries. Speculation about a TTP-Baloch alliance appeared to receive some confirmation when TTP 'spokesperson' Mohammad Khurasani congratulated the Baloch insurgent groups for their attacks in Nuskhi and Panjgur, stating, "The Pakistani Army is carrying out the massacre in Balochistan. We are against the massacre of Balochistan as well as in Waziristan by the Pakistani Army. Our enemy is common."
Indeed, after the February 2, 2023, twin BLA attacks on the Panjgur and Nuskhi Army camps, the then Federal Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid, citing intelligence reports, told the media on February 3, 2023, that Baloch militants were not capable of launching major attacks in Nuskhi and Panjgur, and that TTP had the capability, experience and latest NATO weapons to launch such attacks. He asserted, further, that there was some understanding between the TTP and Baloch militants, and that both groups had their hideouts in Afghanistan.
The possible nexus between Baloch insurgents and TTP is also visible in the absorption of two Baloch groups into the TTP fold. On April 12, 2023, the TTP claimed that a group from Quetta District, led by Asim Baloch, and another from Kalat District, led Akram Baloch, had joined its ranks. Though the development is worrisome for the security agencies and the government, it is not new. Indeed, a local Baloch jihadist group, led by Mazar Baloch from Makran, Balochistan, had joined the TTP on December 23, 2022, as well.
The Gwadar Port Authority Complex attack of March 20, 2024, and other recent attacks by Baloch insurgent groups on SFs indicate changes in the targeting strategy. While earlier attacks by Baloch groups were of the 'hit and run' kind, the recent attacks have been of an audacious nature, attacking SFs in their own bases and establishments, with suicide bombers followed by suicidal assaults, a strategy which TTP has followed for years. This change of tactics by Baloch insurgent groups reinforces the Pakistan security establishment's conclusions of a TTP - Baloch nexus, possibly directed from Afghan soil.
Meanwhile, frustrated with the Afghanistan government's 'ineffectiveness' in reigning in TTP and other terrorist groups operating from its soil, Pakistan carried out "intelligence-based anti-terrorist operations" inside the border regions of Afghanistan, killing eight people, on March 18, 2024. A press release from Pakistan's Foreign Office said the prime targets of the operation were terrorists belonging to the Hafiz Gul Bahadur Group, adding that the outfit, along with the TTP, was responsible for multiple terrorist attacks inside Pakistan, resulting in "deaths of hundreds of civilians and law enforcement officials." The Foreign Office added that the latest such attack took place on March 16, 2024, at a security post in Mir Ali, North Waziristan, which claimed the lives of seven Pakistani soldiers. The Hafiz Gul Bahadur group had claimed responsibility for the attack. Security officials claimed that terrorists of the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group operated from the Afghan side of the border, mostly from Khost.
Reacting to the March 18 Pakistani operation, the Afghan Government carried out multiple retaliatory attacks on security installations along the Pak-Afghan border in the Parachinar area of Kurram District in KP, in which one Army captain was killed, while two soldiers sustained injuries. Afghanistan's Ministry of Defense issued a statement saying that they responded to the Pakistani attacks, targeting military centres with heavy weapons. The statement declared, "Once again, Pakistani military and reconnaissance jets have entered Afghanistan's territory and bombarded the homes of civilians in Barmal of Paktika and Spera of Khost."
Meanwhile, on March 20, 2024, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif asserted that Pakistan would not tolerate any more cross-border terrorist attacks on its soil. Chairing the Federal Cabinet meeting in Islamabad, Prime Minister Sharif declared that Pakistan desired cordial relations with the neighbouring fraternal countries to promote trade and economic relations, but it was not acceptable that the land of the neighbouring country was used for terrorism in Pakistan.
This friction, however, is unlikely to dissipate, and the surge in attacks inside Pakistan is going to continue to trouble the newly 'elected' government, even as the increasing volatility of the Af-Pak border rules out the potential for any respite.
Stabilization and Challenges Afsara Shaheen Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
Though peace continued to prevail in Sri Lanka through 2023, the politico-economic crises that engulfed the country in 2022, persisted. There was, however, relative improvement in the overall situation.
No terrorism-linked fatality was recorded in Sri Lanka in 2023, unlike 2022, when on November 28, Mohamed Badrudeen alias Mohamed Harnas, Easter Sunday terror attack suspect, who was out on bail, was hacked to death by unidentified assailants in Mattakkuliya in Colombo, However, 2023 recorded some terrorism-linked incidents which included:
According to the United States (US) Department of State 2021 Country Reports on Terrorism, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE);'s international network of sympathizers and financial supporters is still active, despite the military defeat of the group in 2009, at the hands of the Sri Lankan Government. The report stated that there have been no known attacks in Sri Lanka attributed to the LTTE since 2009, but 13 LTTE supporters, several of whom had planned attacks against US and Israeli diplomatic facilities in India, were arrested in Malaysia in 2014. Other members were arrested in Malaysia and India in 2015, one of whom was accused of exhorting other Sri Lankans to fund and revive the LTTE.
Significantly, on March 12, 2024, a former LTTE cadre was arrested from Matara in the Southern Province, in a joint operation carried out by the Army Intelligence Unit and the Sri Lanka Police Special Branch, while transporting three kilograms of Kerala cannabis from Kilinochchi to Matara by bus. Police stated that the arrestee had been imprisoned for several years before being released. It is to be noted that drug cartels with established foreign linkages continued to operate with impunity in Sri Lanka.
There is a threat to security from other individuals and groups as well. In 2021, 18 organizations and 577 individuals had been blacklisted in the country for financing terrorism under the United Nations Regulation No. 1 of 2012, according to the Defence Ministry. Through an Extraordinary Gazette Notification dated August 1, 2022, the Ministry of Defence removed six organisations and 316 individuals from the 2021 list, but added three new organisations and 55 new individuals to the list. Thus, as on August 1, 2022, at least 15 organizations and 361 individuals were blacklisted in the country. The organisations that were de-listed in the August 1, 2022, Notification included six international Tamil organizations - the Australian Tamil Congress, the Global Tamil Forum, the World Tamil Coordination Committee, the Tamil Eelam People's Congress, the Canadian Tamil Congress and the British Tamil Forum. Of the 15 existing groups in the list, five are Islamist groups, including the National Thowheed Jama'ath (NTJ), Jama'athe Milla' athe Ibrahim, Willayath As Seylani, Darul Adhar alias Jamiul Adhar Mosque, Sri Lanka Islamic Student Movement and Save the Pearls.
There was some relief on the economic front. Inflation has come down from a peak of 69.8 percent in September 2022 to 5.9 percent in February 2024. Despite a 12.4 per cent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contraction in Quarter 4 of 2022 and six consecutive quarters of negative growth in 2022 and 2023 (first two quarters), the nation rebounded with a 1.6 per cent growth rate in Quarter 3 and 4.5 per cent growth in Quarter 4 of 2023. The Sri Lankan Rupee traded at 377 against the USD in May 2022, but recovered significantly, at 309 in March 2024. The tourism industry, one of Sri Lanka's key economic pillars, has grown significantly. Arrivals of foreign tourists increased from 194,495 in 2021 - the middle of the COVID pandemic - to 1,487,303 in 2023.
Despite significant recovery, however, the situation remained worrisome. The recent economic forecasts for Sri Lanka released by the Asian Development Bank in September 2023 noted,
Meanwhile, according to the Sri Lankan Constitution, the Country must hold its presidential election in September/October 2024 and parliamentary elections before August 2025. However, given the present scenario, there is a doubt that elections will be held on time. Indeed, citing financial limitations, local government elections that were originally slated for March 9, 2023, were postponed, almost bringing the Election Commission and the Government to the verge of an institutional crisis. The Government failed to provide the funds required to hold the polls, so the elections were postponed indefinitely, even though the Election Commission had rescheduled the date to April 25, 2023.
Elections could result in a dramatic shift in Sri Lanka's political landscape. Led by the Marxist party Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), the National People's Power (NPP) alliance is predicted to be the frontrunner in the elections. Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the leader of the JVP, is poised to dominate parliamentary elections and could challenge President Ranil Wickremesinghe seriously in the presidential contest. The NPP opposes privatization of all state-owned businesses, especially those that are losing money, and its beliefs and practices go counter to ongoing reforms.
Another political coalition that is set to be well-represented in polls is the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), the country's principal opposition party. Once an ally of Wickremesinghe, its leader, Sajith Premadasa, has turned into a vociferous critic of the President's administration. Its leader, Premadasa is more popular than Wickremesinghe, even though both of them have comparable plans for economic recovery and the government.
In a worrying development, Sivagnanam Shritharan, an ardent supporter of the LTTE movement - a position he has often reiterated publicly - was elected leader of the largest Tamil political party, Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK) in January 2024. After his election Shritharan said that their journey should begin from the graves of the Eelam national liberation fighters. This indicates a major change in the strategies of Tamil parties. Minority parties had previously tried to negotiate concessions from major parties on matters such as power devolution and the return of lands now held by the military to their original owners in the Northern Province of the country. The possibility of a more fractious approach appears likely under Shritharan's leadership.
Sri Lanka continues to be in a challenging political, social, and economic situation. The economic crisis of 2022 serves as an example of the indivisibility of human rights and the ways in which impunity, corruption, and the erosion of democratic institutions and the rule of law have all contributed to the current state of affairs. Sri Lanka must address the enduring effects of the protracted armed conflict that ended in 2009, as well as the severe longer-term deficiencies in governance and accountability, in order to embark on a path to recovery and sustainable development.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia March 18-24, 2024
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Chhattisgarh
Jharkhand
Maharashtra
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
21 civilians killed in IS-KP orchestrated suicide attack in Kandahar Province: On March 21, at least 21 civilians were killed and 50 others were injured in an explosion when a suicide bomber passed the Taliban checkpoint and detonated among Taliban fighters gathered outside the Kabul Bank branch near the Taliban commander's headquarters in the 1st Police District (PD) in Kandahar City of Kandahar Province. The Taliban Ministry of Interior Affairs stated that the explosion was carried out by the Islamic State - Khorasan Province (IS-KP). No group has yet claimed responsibility for this explosion. The Khaama Press, March 22, 2024.
No safe havens for terrorists in Afghanistan, US warns Taliban: The United States (US) on March 18 warned the Taliban to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for terrorists and to ensure that terrorist attacks are not orchestrated from Afghan soil. "We remain committed to ensuring that Afghanistan never again becomes a safe haven for terrorists who wish to harm the United States or our partners and allies," State Department's Principal Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel told a press briefing. Ary News, March 19, 2024.
SFJ incites farmers to take up arms against Police in Punjab: On March 19, in the reference of ongoing farmer's agitation in Punjab, Sikh for Justice (SFJ) leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun shared a video on social media stating "Use a bullet for a bullet," claiming that weapons were readily available at Kartarpur Sahib, Pakistan, and across the international border with Rajasthan''. However, Pakistani authorities swiftly dismissed Pannun's claims as "a bunch of lies aimed at defaming Pakistan. The Times of India, March 21, 2024.
NSCN-IM disagrees to '16-point type solution' in Naga political issue: National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) 'chairman' Q Tuccu stated the outfit's steadfast stance against the repetition of historical mistakes by rejecting any proposed "16-point type of solution" to the Naga political issue. Tuccu highlighted the challenging negotiations with the Indian government, which sought to impose its own agenda. Encouraging the people to uphold the essence of the "Naga Republic," Tuccu urged them to continue the timeless tradition of asserting Naga independence and political identity. North East Now, March 21, 2024.
Maoist 'Dandakaranya SZC' says it is ready for peace talks: The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) 'Dandakaranya Special Zonal Committee (DSZC)' expressed its readiness for peace talks with the Chhattisgarh government. Committee 'spokesperson' Vikalp, in a statement released to the media, said the Maoists were always ready for peace talks for the welfare of the suppressed sections and to establish peace. He made it clear that if the government creates an amicable environment, they will come forward for peace talks. Telangana Today, March 21, 2024.
Government's common resolution places top priority to conclude transitional justice issues: On March 19, the ruling alliance unveiled its Common Minimum Policy, Priorities, and Resolution, pledging to conclude transitional justice and investigate the corruption of any era in the past. The policy, which places the supreme interests of the Nepali people at the centre, aims to instill hope and faith by tearing apart the sense of despondency among the people. My Republica, March 20, 2024.
Eight BLA cadres and two soldiers killed in attack on Gwadar Port Authority complex in Balochistan: Eight Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) cadres and two soldiers were killed after the Security Forces (SFs) thwarted an attack on the Gwadar Port Authority (GPA) Complex in Gwadar town (Gwadar District) of Balochistan on March 20. A press release from the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) said that a group of eight terrorists attempted to enter the Port Authority Colony but were successfully thwarted by SFs personnel. The Majeed Brigade of the BLA claimed responsibility for the attack. Dawn, March 21, 2024.
Pakistan doesn't want any armed conflict with Afghanistan, says Defense Minister Khawaja Asif: The Defense Minister Khawaja Asif on March 23 stated that his country does not desire an armed conflict with Afghanistan, following Islamabad's airstrikes on alleged terrorist hideouts across the border. In an interview with Voice of America (VoA), Asif emphasized, "Force is the last resort. We do not want to have an armed conflict with Afghanistan."
Pakistan on March 22 called upon Afghanistan to collectively tackle the issue of terrorism as a 'shared concern', emphasising the need for collaborative efforts to combat this persistent threat. The statement was issued by the Foreign Office, highlighting the imperative of joint action following the suicide bombing in Kandahar that killed three persons and injured 12 others.
Prime Minister (PM) Shehbaz Sharif on March 20 stated that Pakistan will not tolerate any more cross-border terror attacks on its soil. Chairing the Federal Cabinet meeting in Islamabad, PM Shehbaz Sharif said security of the geographical frontiers of Pakistan is a redline. Pakistan desires to have cordial relations with the neighbouring fraternal countries to promote trade and economic relations. However, it is not acceptable that the land of the neighbouring country is used for terrorism in Pakistan, he added. Pakistan Today, March 25, 2024; The Express Tribune, March 23, 2024; Ary News, March 21, 2024.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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