South Asia Terrorism Portal
J&K: Terror's Chameleons Bulbul Prakash Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On July 13, 2023, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) conducted raids at multiple locations in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) as part of the ongoing investigations into the terrorist conspiracy case. The raids targeted ‘hybrid terrorists’ and Overground Workers (OGWs) associated with newly-floated outfits such as The Resistance Front (TRF), the United Liberation Front-Jammu and Kashmir (ULF-J&K), Mujahideen Gazwat-ul-Hind (MGH), and others.
On July 11, 2023, NIA conducted raids at five locations in Anantnag, Shopian and Pulwama Districts of J&K, against the newly-floated offshoots of proscribed Pakistan-backed terrorist outfits operating in J&K. The NIA suspects the involvement of these cadres in the collection and distribution of sticky bombs, magnetic bombs, Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), funds, narcotic substances and arms and ammunitions.
On June 26, 2023, NIA conducted raids at 12 locations in the Kulgam, Bandipora, Shopian and Pulwama Districts of J&K as part of an ongoing investigation into the conspiracy by newly-formed offshoots of banned terrorist outfits, to destabilize J&K.
The NIA conducted a total of 13 raids on newly-floated terrorist groups in the region between August 5, 2019, and July 13, 2023, (data till July 30, 2023). These raids were distributed across seven operations in 2023, four in 2022, and two in 2021. The first search operation took place on October 10, 2021, leading to the arrest of two operatives associated with TRF, in the LeT-TRF conspiracy case.
Following the legislative changes on August 5, 2019, which revoked Kashmir's autonomy and altered property rights of locals, widespread suspicion arose among the people, who feared that these new laws would lead to demographic changes in India's only Muslim-majority region. In the wake of these developments, a series of new terrorist fronts emerged.
The groups that have come under scrutiny for their potential connections to major banned terrorist organizations, including Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM), Al-Badr, Al-Qaeda, and others, include TRF, ULF-J&K, MGH, Jammu and Kashmir Freedom Fighters (JKFF), Kashmir Tigers, Peoples Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF), and Jammu and Kashmir Ghaznavi Force (JKGF).
A notable departure from their predecessors is observed in the names, slogans and strategies adopted by these new groups, which now emphasize “Kashmiri resistance” over Islamic ideology, positioning themselves as “indigenous movements”. The aim has been to fundamentally reshape the region's dynamics and create fresh challenges for the established status quo.
By using these new identities, the parent terrorist organizations aim to complicate investigations, maintain "plausible deniability" and evade detection. Moreover, adopting names that sound more secular and political, is intended to reshape the narrative around the attacks, portraying them as part of a broader political cause, to gain support and legitimacy among the local people, making them more susceptible to manipulation and recruitment.
The establishment and sustenance of these new groups was also significantly influenced by Pakistan's covert support and backing, as Islamabad sought to address the financial pressures resulting from its continued inclusion in the Financial Action Task Force (FATF)’s grey list, till November 2022, when it was removed.
Among all these groupings, the TRF, a proxy outfit of LeT, which emerged in 2019, and was declared a "terrorist organization" by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) on January 5, 2023, under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA), is the most active. The group selectively targets individuals, especially minorities, non-locals, Police and security personnel, and domiciled individuals who migrate to Kashmir. It uses platforms such as Twitter, Facebook, and Telegram, to issue threats and claim responsibility for its attacks, using a distinctive Public Relations (PR) strategy to justify each operation with a ‘secularized ideology’ focused on resistance against ‘invasion’, ‘occupation’, ‘fascism’, and Hindutva.
The PAFF comes next in the ‘prominence list’. Established in 2019, it was banned on January 7, 2023, by the UMHA, under UAPA.
The JKGF, which surfaced in 2020, has been involved in infiltration bids, narcotics and weapons smuggling and carrying out terrorist attacks in the Union territory of J&K. On February 17, 2023, the UMHA declared it a terrorist organisation under UAPA.
MGH is an Al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist group with a significant presence in Kashmir. It was claimed by various sources that MGH is a front for Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind (AGuH), a terrorist outfit formed by Zakir Musa, a former HM operative. MGH was floated after Musa’s death in May 2019.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), since August 5, 2019, the date of the legislative withdrawal of the state’s special status and its transformation into a Union Territory, J&K has accounted for 958 killings, including 127 civilians, 148 Security Force (SF) personnel and 683 terrorists (data till July 30, 2023). Of this total, 275 persons (127 civilians and 148 SF personnel) killed by the terrorists, 28 fatalities are linked to or claimed by these newly formed groups. These include 12 civilians and 16 SF personnel. During this period, J&K has recorded 18 major attacks (each involving three or more deaths) targeting civilians and SFs, of which seven have been claimed by one or the other of these newly formed groups. Some of the recent incidents involving these groups include:
Targeted killings of non-locals also surged after the formation of these new groupings. Since August 5, 2019, terrorists have targeted non-local labourers (from outside J&K) on at least 27 occasions, killing 19 and injuring another 42 (till July 30, 2023).
The threat letters issued by these groups have also centred on condemning "Hindutva," the "Modi government," and claimed to work for the betterment of the Kashmiri people. This ‘renewed rhetoric’ also reflects the groups’ attempts to garner support and legitimacy for their actions by framing their struggle in sub-nationalist and ‘anti-occupation’ terms, rather than relying solely on religious discourse.
For example, in a Statement released by TRF, taking responsibility for the killing of school teachers in Srinagar in October 2021, the group declared,
Conspicuously omitted are any explicit religious references, as a more politically charged and localized language is adopted to appeal to specific audiences, though the reality has been otherwise demonstrated. Furthermore, the targeted killings of Kashmiri Pandits (KP) and non-locals, reveal a more communal agenda. These groups openly declared hostility towards India, attributing it largely to what they perceived as the "fascism" of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS)-endorsed Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government. Among these groups, PAFF has even used a logo featuring an arrow poised over a saffron flag with a swastika, to symbolize the group’s ideological stance.
Apart from claiming responsibility for terrorist attacks and engaging in targeted killings, these groups have engaged in strategic propaganda activities. On February 14, 2023, PAFF issued a warning in the wake of lithium reserves being discovered in J&K, declaring, “we will attack companies stealing our resources”. Sources message was uploaded from Muzaffarabad city of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).
Jammu and Kashmir has long been grappling with a conflict fuelled by various Pakistan-backed terrorist organizations. In recent years, the emergence of new terrorist outfits – mostly the offshoots of the prominent groups already in existence – has added complexity to an already sensitive situation. However, by striking at the very heart of their parent organizations, the state forces can sever the lifeline feeding the growth of these new groups, putting an end to their potential menace. Targeting the source of the problem will engender substantial advancements in counter-terrorism endeavours, creating an environment conducive to sustaining peace and stability within the region.
Assam: ULFA-I - Protecting Extortion Operations Afsara Shaheen Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On July 30, 2023, a cadre of the Independent faction of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-I), identified as Jogen Gogoi, was injured in Police firing in a reserve forest in Abhayapuri in Sonari in Charaideo District of Assam. The police opened fire when Gogoi, who was arrested on July 29, 2023, for extortion activities, took Police to the forest to show them the extortion money that he had hidden there, but tried to escape. One pistol, a magazine, along with several rounds of live ammunition were recovered from his possession. He admitted that he was collecting extortion money from businessmen and tea planters in Charaideo District at the behest of ULFA-I leader Ganesh Asom.
On July 23, 2023, the ULFA-I issued a statement signed by ULFA-I ‘captain’ Rumel Asom, threatening Assam Director General of Police (DGP) Gyanendra Prasad Singh over Police ‘shootouts’ in the state, declaring he would have to face ‘dire consequences’ if the State Police did not refrain from continuing what it called “fake encounters”. The statement from ULFA-I added, “This is our last warning.'' The development comes after one suspected accused was injured in Police firing on July 22, 2023, pertaining to a case of extortion demands from business persons in Upper Assam.
On July 22, 2023, two ULFA-I cadres – a woman identified as Pushpanjali Gogoi, and Hema Chetia – were arrested by a joint team of the Indian Army and Assam Police near Dibrugarh University in Dibrugarh District. INR 300,000 and INR 164,000 extorted from businessmen was recovered from Pushpanjali Gogoi and Hema Chetia, respectively. During interrogation, Hema Chetia revealed that more extortion funds were kept in his house. As a joint team went to his house to seize the money, he tried to attack the policemen with a grenade-type explosive. In retaliation, the Police team fired at his leg and he was overpowered. A ‘bottle grenade’ and INR 10,000 was recovered from his residence.
On July 21, 2023, the Assam Riffles arrested two ULFA-I operatives, Rituraj Gohain aka Pulin Asom and Montu Neog aka Maina Asom, during an operation launched by the Khonsa Battalion of Assam Rifles in conjunction with the Arunachal Pradesh Police in Tirap District in Arunachal Pradesh. The duo had crossed over the Indo-Myanmar Border to try and make their way to Assam, in a bid to carry out subversive activities.
On July 21, 2023, Assam Police arrested one ULFA-I cadre, identified as Sanjay Barua, while he went to collect extortion money from a businessman in Tinsukia District of Assam.
On July 15, 2023, the Special Branch of the Assam Police interrogated two surrendered ULFA-I cadres, Sangram Asom and Ranjit Asom, who were accused of extorting money, in the Guwahati in Kamrup (Metro) District of Assam.
On July 9, ULFA-I sent an extortion letter to the Timon Tea Garden in the Sonari area of Charaideo District in Assam, demanding INR 7.2 million. The letter, signed by ULFA-I leader ‘Nayan Asom’, was sent to Manoj Gogoi, the manager of the Timon Tea Garden, via WhatsApp.
Meanwhile, on September 3, 2022, in a major crackdown against the ULFA-I, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) conducted searches at 16 locations in Assam, in connection with the ULFA recruitment case and militant training in Myanmar. The case, which was registered by the NIA on May 18, 2022, pertains to recruitment by ULFA-I, extortion to strengthen ULFA-I, radicalisation of youth for unlawful activities, and their training at camps based across the Indo-Myanmar border, in Myanmar. Reports suggest that several social media platforms have been used by ULFA-I to lure the youths to join the insurgent group.
ULFA-I’s present activities overwhelming focus on extortion and the protection of its networks for resource generation and recruitment. Nevertheless, of the six terrorism-linked fatalities recorded in the state in 2023 so far (data till July 30), four were linked to ULFA-I. On February 20, 2023, three persons were killed by suspected ULFA–I militants in the Tamulbari area in the Tinsukia District of Assam. ULFA-I believed that the three unidentified victims were ‘informers’ of the Security Forces and that ULFA-I ‘field commander’ Uday Asom was killed on February 9, 2023, based on the intelligence provided by the three. The remaining two fatalities this year are of two Kamatapur Liberation Organisation (KLO) cadres, Abhijit Deka and Nipon Roy, who were killed in an encounter with the Assam Police in the Chakraxila Hills area in Kokrajhar District, Assam, on April 24, 2023.
In 2022, of the total six fatalities (three civilians and three terrorists) recorded, all three terrorists killed were from ULFA-I.
While the last civilian killing in the state was carried out by ULFA-I (February 20, 2023), the last SF killing in the state was reported way back in 2018 and was also linked to ULFA-I. On May 2018, a Policeman was killed in an encounter with ULFA-I militants at Bordumsa in Tinsukia District. The last terrorist killed also belonged to ULFA-I.
Since the formation of the group in August 2012, after a split in the parent ULFA, incidents linked to ULFA-I have resulted in 125 fatalities, including 47 civilians, eight Security Force personnel and 70 ULFA-I cadres.
The ULFA movement started in April 1979 with the stated aim of creating an independent Assam. On February 5, 2011, ULFA leaders led by the then ULFA 'vice-chairman' Pradip Gogoi, along with the then 'foreign secretary' Sashadhar Choudhury and the then 'central publicity secretary' Mithinga Daimary announced that the outfit's general council had endorsed the resolution of the central executive council (CEC) to sit for talks with the Central Government without any precondition. The then ULFA 'commander-in-chief' Paresh Baruah-led group described the general council itself as unconstitutional thus negating the resolution. Differences continued to grow. The 'formal' split, however, took place in August 2012 when Paresh Baruah 'expelled' Arabinda Rajkhowa and appointed Abhijit Barman as the outfit's 'chairman'. Since August 2012, when the ULFA split into two – pro-talks faction of ULFA (ULFA-PTF) and anti-talks faction of ULFA (ULFA-ATF) which later in 2013 rechristened itself as ULFA-I – the latter has stuck to the core demand of the creation of a ’sovereign Assam.’
While most major terrorist groups, which had once created havoc in Assam, have now joined peace talks resulting with the government, resulting in significant improvement in security situation in the state, ULFA-I remains violently active.
Indeed, on July 6, 2023, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma while addressing a surrender ceremony of eight Adivasi militant groups in Assam, appealed to ULFA-I,
Earlier, on April 27, 2023, Sarma had stated that a peace accord with ULFA-I was likely 'soon' and a draft accord had already been sent to ULFA-I leaders. Sarma disclosed,
Earlier on January 27, 2023, Sarma stated that ULFA-I was the last hurdle in the government's efforts to ensure complete peace in Assam. He appealed to the extremist group to join the mainstream for "Assam to become an island of peace".
In between, on May 10, 2023, Anup Chetia stated that a peace agreement can be signed if the Centre accepts its demands, including land rights for indigenous Assamese people. Anup Chetia was extradited to India from Bangladesh in November 2015. He later joined the peace process.
Earlier, after the killing of one ULFA-I militant on July 1, 2022, in the Kakopathar area of Tinsukia District in Assam, Paresh Baruah had said the Government of India (GoI) should establish understanding and faith to start peace talks:
Baruah asserted that he had faith in Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who wanted to start talks.
ULFA-I had declared a three-month unilateral ceasefire on May 15, 2021. Paresh Baruah had said that the outfit would not engage in any kind of ‘military operations’ during these three months. Then, on August 14, 2021, ULFA-I extended the unilateral ceasefire for another three months, again due to the COVID-19 pandemic situation. Again, on November 14, 2021, ULFA-I extended its unilateral ceasefire for another three months. On March 4, 2022, the outfit decided not to extend the ceasefire further and refused the offer of peace talks by the Government, insisting on "Swadhin Asom" or independent Assam, as a key plank for the peace talks. The group remains defiant and belligerent.
During the ceasefire period, no violent activities related to ULFA-I took place. The first incident of violence after the ceasefire occurred on May 7, 2022, when ULFA-I claimed that it had sentenced two of its newly recruited cadres, Dhanjit Das of Barpeta and Sanjib Sarma of Baihata Chairali, to death for allegedly being ‘spies’ of the Police.
The security situation in Assam has improved considerably since 2015. Several groups have joined peace talks as well. However, ULFA-I remains a big challenge. Along with the efforts to bring the outfit to the negotiating table, sustained operations against the outfit cadres on the ground continue.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia July 24-30, 2023
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
BANGLADESH
CHT
INDIA
Jammu & Kashmir
Manipur
India (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Punjab
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
ARSA leader Ustad Khaled behind arms smuggling into Rohingya refugee camp in Cox's Bazar, says intelligence agency: Intelligence agency said that a significant number of weapons made their way into several Rohingya camps in Cox's Bazar in July 2023 in an operation directed by a prominent leader of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), identified as Ustad Khaled. Intelligence sources stated that the weapons were smuggled into the camps by Rohingya women and children." Dhaka Tribune, July 26, 2023.
RAB uncovers links between JAFHS, Ansar al-Islam and KCNF: During a press conference on July 24, Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) legal and media wing director commander Khandaker A. L. Moin said Jama'atul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya (JAFHS) signed a formal agreement with the banned militant outfit Ansar al-Islam in order to cooperate. He further said, "Amir (Chief) Anisur Rahman alias Mahmud signed an agreement with the leaders of Ansar al-Islam at a meeting held in Kishoregonj District in 2022. Later, Ansar al-Islam provided BDT 1.5 million to JAFHS. Dhaka Tribune, July 25, 2023.
Al-Qaeda shaping its regional outfit to spread operations in J&K, says UN report:The 32nd report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team of the 1267 Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) and Al-Qaeda Sanctions Committee of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) noted that Al-Qaeda is moulding its regional affiliate, Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), to expand its terror operations in the Indian subcontinent, targeting Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), Bangladesh, and Myanmar. It added that in the Indian subcontinent, Al-Qaeda has approximately 200 fighters, with Osama Mehmood being the Amir (supreme leader). India Today, July 28, 2023.
Illegal Indian immigrants being coached by lawyers to pretend to be Khalistani for UK asylum: The Daily Mail, a United Kingdom (UK)-based newspaper investigation uncovered how illegal Indian immigrants in the UK are being "coached" by numerous rogue lawyers in Britain to pretend they are "Khalistani" to make fake asylum claims. The Times of India, July 27, 2023.
Pakistan following Punjab model in J&K to lure youth to narcotics, says DGP Dilbag Singh: Director General of Police (DGP) Dilbag Singh on July 24 said that Pakistan is following the Punjab model in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) to lure youth towards narcotics. "When terrorism ended in Punjab, youth and people were lured towards drugs. While terrorism vanished in Punjab, drugs remained there to destroy the generations. Same model is being followed in J&K by Pakistan. Militancy is on its deathbed in J&K but efforts from across are on to hook youth towards drugs," he added. Daily Excelsior, July 25, 2023.
97 'comrades' killed in last one year, claim Maoists:The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) said in a press release that 97 'comrades' (Maoists) were killed in the country in the last year. In the press release, the number of cadres killed includes nine in Bihar and Jharkhand, nine in Telangana, 58 in Dandakaranya, five in the Maharashtra-Madhya Pradesh-Chhattisgarh Special Zone, three in the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha Border (AOB) area, nine in Odisha, one in Andhra Pradesh, one in the Western Ghats, and one in West Bengal. Among the 97 'martyred comrades', 28 were women." Lagatar, July 27, 2023.
UPF-KNO hold talks with Union Government and raises demand for Union Territory with legislative powers: On July 26, the United People's Front (UPF) and Kuki National Organisation (KNO) [11 militant groups], the two conglomerate organizations of the Kuki militants, held the first formal meet with the Union Government, which marked the resumption of the formal political dialogue. Both the outfits put up the demand for a separate administration with legislative powers during talks with the Union Government. Imphal Free Press, July 31, 2023.
ENPO clarifies draft proposal being submitted to UMHA in public domain is fake: On July 28, the Eastern Nagaland Peoples' Organisation (ENPO) clarified that the document doing the rounds in social media purported to be the draft submitted by the ENPO to the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), is fake. According to ENPO, the "fake draft contains certain points such as (a) to pursue for laying down of arms by the national workers hailing from eastern Nagaland region (b) to put up border fencing along the Indo-Myanmar border, touching the areas of eastern Nagaland." Nagaland Post, July 31, 2023.
At least 46 persons killed and more than 100 injured in suicide blast targeting JUI-F workers' convention in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: At least 46 people, including a Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) local leader, were killed and more than 100 sustained injuries in a suicide blast at the JUI-F workers' convention on Shanday Morr near the NADRA office in Khar town of Bajaur District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) at around 4pm on July 30. Though no outfit so far claimed responsibility for the blast, the District Police Officer (DPO) Nazir Khan said initial probe shows that Islamic State was involved. Geo News, July 31, 2023.
Return of Afghan Taliban to power "emboldened" TTP, reveals UNSC report: A report compiled by the United Nation Security Council (UNSC) monitoring committee revealed that the return of the Afghan Taliban to power has "emboldened" the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which is seeking to re-establish control in the erstwhile Pakistani tribal areas. The committee, which submitted its report to the UNSC on July 25, sheds light on how the TTP is gaining momentum in Afghanistan since the Afghan Taliban took control in August 2021. The Express Tribune, July 29, 2023.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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