South Asia Terrorism Portal
Manipur: Dogged Disorders Afsara Shaheen Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On December 4, 2023, at least 13 people belonging to the Meitei community, suspected to be cadres of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), were killed in a gunfight with suspected Kuki militants near Leithao village near Saibol in the Tengnoupal District near the Indo-Myanmar border. The place where the bodies were recovered is a Kuki-Zomi dominated area. An official said after the incident, "A group of militants on their way to Myanmar were ambushed by another group of insurgents dominant in the area."
This is the highest single day insurgency-linked fatality in Manipur since the ethnic violence commenced on May 3, 2023.
The largest single-day toll in the state before this incident was reported on July 27, 2023, when 10 suspected Kuki militants were killed and several others injured, following fierce gunfights that took place between State Police and central forces, on the one hand, and Kuki militants, on the other, at various places under the jurisdiction of Phougakchao Police Station in Bishnupur District. Other single-day tolls in excess of or equal to five fatalities included:
May 28, 2023: At least nine people, including six civilians, two policemen and a suspected militant, were killed overnight in Imphal East and Kakching Districts of Manipur.
June 13, 2023: Nine people were killed and 10 injured when suspected militants attacked Agijang Village in the Khamenlok area on the border between Imphal East and Kangpokpi Districts.
June 22, 2023: At least seven Kuki militants were killed and two civilians and two Security Force (SF) personnel were injured in a gun battle that took place at Poljang/Boljang Village in Kangpokpi District.
August 8, 2023: Five Kuki militants were killed in a gunfight with policemen and village volunteers in Phubala in Bishnupur District.
August 30, 2023: Five Kuki militants were killed in a gunfight between Kuki militants and the State Police and India Reserved Battalion (IRB), at Naranseina in Bishnupur District. Two soldiers of the IRB and four village volunteers (civilians) and a Kuki militant were also injured in the gunfight.
The last incident, prior to May 3, 2023, in which five or more than five people were killed, was reported on November 13, 2021, when insurgents ambushed an Assam Rifles (AR) convoy in the Churachandpur District of Manipur, killing a Commanding Officer (CO), his wife and their five-year-old son and four AR personnel. At least six AR personnel were also injured in the attack. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the Manipur Naga People’s Front (MNPF) had jointly claimed responsibility for the ambush.
Between, November 13, 2021, and May 2, 2023, no major incident (involving three or more fatalities) was reported. During this period, a total of 11 fatalities, including six civilians, one trooper and four insurgents were reported in 10 incidents of killing. On the other hand, since May 3, 2023, Manipur has recorded a total of 153 insurgency-linked fatalities, including 70 civilians, 17 SF personnel, 65 insurgents and one Not Specified, in 71 incidents of killing. 20 of these incidents were ‘major’ (each involving three or more fatalities), including the seven mentioned above.
It has been over seven months since the ethnic violence in Manipur flared up, yet such major incidents continue to occur, in addition to the occasional smaller incidents of killings of civilians or SFs at the hands of insurgents.
Moreover, according to available government statistics, a total of 175 persons, including women and children, were killed in ethnic violence in the state between May 3 and September 14, 2023, while 1,108 persons, including women and children, sustained injuries in the violence, and 32 persons were on the missing list. No further details were provided, so it is not possible to assess how many of these casualties were linked to insurgent violence.
Meanwhile, on November 28, 2023, information released by the Manipur Government to a Supreme Court-appointed Committee headed by former Chief Justice of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) High Court, Gita Mittal, stated that, of the 166 civilians killed in the Manipur violence till October 7, at least 98 were identified as members of the Kuki-Zo community, while 67 hailed from the Meitei community. In addition, one woman was from the Naga community. In all, 19 women from both communities (Kuki-Zo and Meitei) had been killed in the ethnic violence till October 7. Data also shows that most of those killed were in the age group of 30 to 40 years, while five were minors, including a seven-year-old boy.
The data suggests that both the communities - Meiteis and the Kukis - have faced severe losses. Despite the gravity of the situation, there have been continuous attempts by the ruling dispensation, as SAIR noted earlier, to engage in divisive politics. Astonishingly, efforts were made at the highest level, to pin the blame exclusively on the Kukis. While State Chief Minister N. Biren Singh has bene doing this since the very outset, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, during a discussion in Parliament on August 9, 2023, claimed that, after the unrest in Myanmar,
It may be noted that Manipur’s population is over three million, and an influx of 10,000 could hardly amount to a “rapid increase in population”. There is, moreover, no evidence to indicate that this influx of refugees has been involved in any activities to destabilize the state. Significantly, neighbouring Mizoram, with a much smaller population of an estimated 1.37 million, has received and accommodated over 32,000 refugees from Myanmar since the military coup of February 2021, without any disturbances.
Meanwhile, on September 27, 2023, the Government extended the imposition of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) in the whole State of Manipur — except in the jurisdiction of 19 Police Stations in seven Districts of the Imphal Valley — for another six months. Further, in a notification dated November 13, 2023, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) extended the ban on Valley-based Meitei Insurgent Groups, including the United National Liberation Front (UNLF), stating that these groups were "engaging in activities prejudicial to the sovereignty and integrity of India and employing and engaging in armed means to achieve their objectives." Surprisingly, despite these observations, a peace agreement was signed with the UNLF on November 29, 2023. The agreement, however is, frail.
Meanwhile, on December 3, 2023, the Manipur government announced the removal of the internet shutdown in most parts of the state, except in the ‘buffer zones’ — areas that connect Valley districts with Hill districts – citing improvements in the law-and-order situation. Though curfews and restrictions on public gatherings remained in force in several parts of the State, there has been some relaxation in curfew hours in several districts. Through these steps, the government has, of late, started portraying the security situation in Manipur as significantly improved, suggesting that peace is around the corner. The latest incident, may however, have punctured any hope of establishing even a tenuous reconciliation in the conflict-ridden State.
ARSA's sanguinary footprints Sanchita Bhattacharya Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
On December 5, 2023, three Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO) operatives – Jobair, Anowar Sadik, and Abdul Kasim – were killed in an attack carried out by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) in the Ukhiya Upazila (Sub-District) in the Cox’s Bazar District of Chittagong Division.
On November 27, 2023, a Rohingya man, Mohammad Yunus, was shot dead during a gunfight between ARSA and RSO at a refugee camp in Ukhiya.
On November 19, 2023, a Rohingya man, Syed Amin, was killed in a gunfight between rival armed groups of ARSA and RSO in a turf war for dominance at Camp 3 in Ukhiya.
According to partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM), at least 23 ARSA-linked incidents of violence have been reported in Bangladesh in the current year, thus far (data till December 7, 2023). At least 27 people (11 civilians and 16 militants) have been killed and another eight civilians and one militant were injured in these incidents. According to ICM’s South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) database, at least 36 ARSA-linked incidents of violence have been reported inside Bangladesh between March 2017 and December 7, 2023. At least 51 persons (21 civilians, and 30 militants) have been killed and another 40 (11 civilians and 29 militants) injured in these incidents. It may be recalled that, in March 2017, the Harakah al-Yaqin (Movement of Faith) renamed itself ARSA.
SATP data, based on open sources, however, underestimates the magnitude of the problem. As reported on July 7, 2023, according to the Police in Bangladesh as well as Rohingya leaders, at least 57 Rohingyas, including 17 community leaders and 11 ARSA operatives, were killed in clashes between January and June 2023 alone.
Harakah al-Yaqin was formed in 2012 following lethal riots between Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims in 2012, which killed some 200 people and displaced over 120,000, almost all of them Muslims. Since then, Harakah al-Yakin obtained fatwas from clerics in countries with a significant Rohingya Diaspora, to justify the use of violence against the Myanmar Armed Forces, and it has carried out significant attacks on Security Forces, including multiple coordinated attacks on October 9, 2016, which resulted in the deaths of nine Police Officers in Rakhine State.
Harakah al-Yaqin renamed itself the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) in March 2017. ARSA came into prominence on August 25, 2017, when the outfit claimed responsibility for attacks within Myanmar when at least 10 Police and one Myanmar Army personnel were killed in attacks on 24 border guard posts, Police Stations, and Army bases by militants in Maungdaw, Buthidaung and Rathedaung townships in the northern Rakhine province of Myanmar. Earlier, on August 15, 2017, in a video uploaded to social media, Ataullah abu Ammar Jununi aka Ata Ullah, the 'chief' of the outfit, declared,
Ammar Jununi is thought to be a Rohingya born in Pakistan but raised in Mecca, Saudi Arabia.
The August 2017 attacks sparked Tatmadaw’s (Myanmar military) genocidal campaign against Rohingya Muslims. The troops torched hundreds of villages and went on a rampage of slaughter and rape. Rohingyas were forced to flee from the volatile Rakhine province and later found shelter in Bangladesh. This was the third major exodus of Rohingya to Bangladesh. Earlier waves followed military assaults on the group in 1978 and 1991-1992. Bangladesh now hosts nearly 1.2 million Rohingyas.
The Rohingya exodus from the restive Rakhine State has eventually brought ARSA operatives and sympathisers into Bangladesh. As reported on April 7, 2023, in a rare interview with an international media, Jununi declared that ARSA’s objective would be “open war” and “continued [armed] resistance” until “citizenship rights were reinstated” for Rohingyas in Myanmar.
ARSA is currently active in Buthidaung and Maungdaw in the Rakhine Province of Myanmar and Cox’s Bazar in eastern Bangladesh. In an interview published on February 24, 2022, its ‘chief’, Jununi, claimed that the group had a cadre strength of 14,000 in Bangladesh and 2,000 in Myanmar. Earlier, as reported on February 16, 2023, a report placed before the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence (Bangladesh), Tambru’s Konapara camp on the zero line – the Bangladesh-Myanmar International Border – has become the centre-point for ARSA’s organisational operations, training, and control of drug smuggling and terrorist activities, due to a lack of regular patrolling and surveillance in the area.
Among the 10 active groups in Rohingya camps in Cox’s Bazar, ARSA is active in Ukhiya, Balukhali, Palangkhali (Ukhiya Sub-District) and Whykong (Teknaf Sub-District); RSO and the Master Munna gangs in Ukhiya and Palongkhali; the Islami Mahaj and Jabu Dacoit gang in Whykong; and the Chakma dacoit gang, Nabi Hussain dacoit gang, Putia dacoit gang, Salman Shah dacoit gang, and Khaleq dacoit gang, are active in the Nayapara camp. Noting that ARSA controls most of the camps, the report stated that ARSA and the Nabi Hussain dacoit gang often engaged in clashes over dominance, resulting in incidents of murder.
ARSA operatives have been responsible for widespread extortion, kidnapping, torture and murder. The crimes are committed to collect funds for local operations in the world’s largest refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar, in southern Bangladesh. Cash-starved Al Yakin, ARSA’s volunteer group, is responsible for most of the gang wars in the refugee camps, in its efforts to establish control over other non-militant groups. Its recruiters from sleeper-cells disseminate a message that joining ARSA or ‘Al Yakin’ was a farz (religious obligation). To fund ARSA, the foot soldiers are also involved in providing armed escorts to cross-border smugglers and drug traders. Funding is also mobilized from Rohingya living in Pakistan, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia.
A February 17, 2023, report provides a comparison of crime statistics from 2021 and 2022, in and around the Rohingya camps, indicating that there were 77 reported incidents of theft in 2021, slightly decreasing to 75 in 2022. The number of shootings also decreased from 51 in 2021 to 18 in 2022. However, drug-related cases remained high, with 268 cases in 2021 and 249 in 2022. Of concern, however, is the noteworthy increase in murders, with 22 reported cases in 2021 and a sharp rise to 42 in 2022. Further, while violence earlier occurred only at night, militants using knives and locally made guns now roam the camps during the day, threatening residents and killing rivals.
In a July 25, 2023, report, intelligence sources disclosed that a substantial number of weapons had found their way into several Rohingya camps in Cox's Bazar, in an operation directed by a prominent ARSA leader, identified as Ustad Khaled. Intelligence sources indicated that the weapons were smuggled into the camps by Rohingya women and children. It was also stated that some were active in different Rohingya camps in Ukhiya and Teknaf Sub-Districts and were being led by Ustad Khaled.
The situation that exists in the Rohingya camps is complicated, with numerous elements contributing to the perceived threat that Rohingyas pose to peace and security in Bangladesh, as well as in the wider South Asian region. The existence of militant organizations, the participation of extremist groups, their susceptibility to criminal exploitation or involvement in the small-arms and drug trade, and the region's geopolitical tensions, are all factors that need to be addressed, in order to reduce the possible dangers associated with the Rohingya crisis. Given the situation in Myanmar, there is little hope of their early rehabilitation in that country. The fullest measures to ensure their security and well-being in the refugee camps are, consequently, necessary.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia December 4-10, 2023
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
BANGLADESH
CHT
INDIA
Chhattisgarh
Jammu and Kashmir
Manipur
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Sindh
PAKISTAN (Total)
Total (South Asia)
UNAMA reports surge in violence against Shia Hazara in Afghanistan: On December 4, the Deputy Office of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) reported a surge in violence against the Shia Hazara community in Kabul, Baghlan, and most notably, in Herat Province throughout November 2023." Hasht e Subh Daily, December 5, 2023.
Thirteen suspected PLA cadres killed by suspected Kuki militants in Manipur: On December 4, at least 13 suspected People's Liberation Army (PLA) cadres were killed in an ambush laid by suspected Kuki militants near Leithao village near Saibol in Tengnoupal District of Manipur. The bodies of the suspected militants were recovered by Manipur Police and Assam Rifles after intelligence inputs about a firefight in the area. Sources suspected the deceased to be new recruits and killed in an ambush while on their way to a training camp in Myanmar. The Tribune, December 5, 2023.
NSCN-IM reiterates demand for separate flag & constitution as part of the peace talks: The National Socialist Council of Nagaland--Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) reiterated its demand for a separate flag and a separate constitution for the Naga people as part of the peace talks. It said that the Government of India (GoI) wandered away from the Framework Agreement that was signed with the group in 2015. Northeast Now, December 9, 2023.
Pakistan-sent drones remain a challenge for security agencies, says BSF and Punjab Police: On December 7, the flights of drones carrying payloads of pure-grade heroin from Pakistan continued unabated, giving many a sleepless night to the Border Security Force (BSF) and Punjab Police. Sources say this is because Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and some other state actors have established a picket across the border, the report added. The Tribune, December 8, 2023.
25 NRFM cadres join UNLF in peace process, says UMHA: On December 2, following the recent signing of peace agreement between United National Liberation Front (UNLF), Government of Manipur and Government of India on 29th November, 2023, around 25 cadres of National Revolutionary Front Manipur (NRFM- a Meitei outfit) led by 'Major' Boicha (Vice Chief of Army Staff of NRFM) along with 25 weapons joined UNLF at Ingourok in Thoubal District of Manipur. MHA, December 5, 2023.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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