South Asia Terrorism Portal

Declining Terror, Rising Instability 
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

10 people, including six Policemen, were killed and another 35 were injured when a suicide bomber blew himself up near a check post outside the Tablighi Jamaat Markaz in Raiwind town of Lahore, the provincial capital of Punjab, on March 14, 2018.

11 Pakistani Army soldiers were killed and 13 were wounded in a suicide bombing near a Pakistani Army camp in the Kabal area of Swat District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on February 3, 2018.

Seven people, including five Policemen, were killed and another 16, including eight Policemen, were injured in a suicide blast at Zarghoon Road in Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan, on January 9, 2018.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), since the beginning of 2018, at least 150 terrorism-related fatalities [46 civilians, 51 Security Force (SF) personnel and 53 terrorists] have been recorded across Pakistan (data till April 8, 2018). In the corresponding period of 2017, the country recorded 449 terrorism-related fatalities (184 civilians, 55 SF personnel, and 210 terrorists).

Through 2017, Pakistan had recorded a total of 1,260 fatalities, including 540 civilians, 208 SF personnel, and 512 terrorists in 2017; as against 1,803 fatalities, including 612 civilians, 293 SF personnel, and 898 terrorists in 2016.

The number of major attacks (involving three or more fatalities) and the resultant fatalities, fell from 172 and 1,369, respectively in 2016, to 132 and 1,047, respectively, in 2017. In the current year, 17 major incidents have already been recorded, resulting 90 fatalities.

The number of sectarian attacks also declined from 35 in 2016 to 16 in 2017. However, the related deaths from such incidents marked a 68.61 per cent increase, from 137 in 2016 to 231 in 2017. The most deadly sectarian attack in 2018 came on February 16, when a suicide bomber attacked the crowded Sufi shrine of Lal Shahbaz Qalandar in Sehwan Sharif town of Jamshoro District in Sindh, killing at least 88 people and injuring 343 others. It was the worst attack, in terms of fatalities, recorded in Pakistan since the December 16, 2014, Army Public School (APS), Peshawar, attack, which had claimed 150 fatalities, including 143 civilians.

Meanwhile, the number of suicide attacks increased from 19 in 2016 to 22 in 2017. However, the resultant toll decreased from 401 fatalities in 2016, to 369 in 2017.

The relative respite from terror through 2017 was primarily due to Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad (Elimination of Discord), launched by the Pakistan Army across the country on February 22, 2017. On December 18, 2018, Major General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, Director General of Military Operations (DGMO), briefing the Senate on action taken by SFs under Operation Radd-ul-Fassad, disclosed that 17,685 operations had been conducted across Pakistan: 13,011 in Punjab; 2,015 in Sindh; 1,410 in Balochistan; and 1,249 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

However, Islamabad’s continuing policy of supporting ‘state-owned’ terrorist formations has created an environment where numerous individuals and groups engage in terrorism, even as terror outfits operating out of Pakistan thrive. As on April 7, 2018, at least 134 individuals and 23 entities with Pakistani connections were included in the Consolidated United Nations Security Council Sanctions List. These included at least 83 individuals who were believed to be in Pakistan or in areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan. Another 29 of these individuals were Pakistani nationals. All the 23 entities listed were operating from Pakistani soil.    

Many of these individuals and entities continue to enjoy a free run in Pakistan. Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, who masterminded the 26/11 Mumbai terrorist attacks and carries a bounty of USD 10 million on his head, is the most ‘prominent’ among them. Saeed heads both the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) (both listed entities), but continues to enjoy open support from all sections of the Pakistani establishment. For instance, in a statement released on December 30, 2017, the Pakistan Foreign Office (FO) justified Hafiz Saeed’s participation in a pro-Palestine rally, also attended by the Palestinian Ambassador to Pakistan, Walid Abu Ali, in Rawalpindi on December 29, 2017, declaring,

Interestingly, the Lahore High Court on April 3, 2018, ordered the Governments – Provincial and Federal – not to ‘harass’ Hafiz Saeed and to allow him to continue his ‘social welfare activities’ until further orders. The Court was hearing a petition filed by JuD against Governmental obstructions curtailing JuD’s ‘social welfare activities’. According to media reports, the Punjab Government had started taking over all the moveable and immovable assets of JuD and its front, the Falah-i-Insaniat Foundation (FIF), in the Province on February 14, 2018. The action was being taken in pursuance of an ordinance issued by President Mamnoon Hussain on February 12, 2018, amending the Anti-Terrorism Act of 1997, and allowing the state to take action against individuals and organizations proscribed by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).However, an unnamed Punjab Government official was later quoted as stating, on March 6, 2018,

Since his release from ‘house arrest, in November 2017, Saeed has held at least two major rallies in Pakistan, in addition to a large number of other public appearances. Apart from the December 29 pro-Palestine rally, he also held a rally in Lahore (Punjab) on the occasion of ‘Kashmir Solidarity Day’ on February 5, 2018. 

Another individual in the list and one of world’s most wanted terrorist, Dawood Ibrahim Kaskar, a person of Indian origin, enjoys Pakistani state immunity and has resided in Pakistan since 1993. His Pakistani addresses have been confirmed by the United Kingdom as well. The revelations were made in a latest report released by UK Treasury department's Consolidated List of Financial Sanctions Targets in the UK. An interview with Dawood Ibrahim and his aide published in Firstpost on August 11, 2017, also confirmed his presence in Pakistan.

Radicalized groups across Pakistan have received further encouragement from recent events, when the Federal Government bowed down before violent Islamist protesters. On October 2, 2017, the National Assembly passed the ‘Election Bill 2017’, making changes in the Khatm-e-Nabuwat [finality of Prophet-hood] clause of its earlier Bill. Soon after, countrywide protests led by the Tehreek-e-Labbaik ya Rasool Allah Pakistan (TLP), an Islamist party, erupted against the change. Other pro-Muslim parties, such as the Pakistan Sunni Tehreek and Tehreek-e-Khatme Nabuwwat (Movement for the Finality of Prophet-hood) also lent their support, demanding the resignation of Law Minister Zahid Hamid and the removal of the offending clause which, according to these groups undermined Islamic beliefs and amounted to blasphemy. Mounting pressure, the protestors began camping at Islamabad’s Faizabad Traffic Interchange from November 6, 2017. The Government restored the original clause on November 17, 2017, but the Islamists continued with their protest. Eventually, on November 25, 2017, bloody clashes took place just outside Islamabad in which at least six people were killed and another 200 were injured. Speaking from the site of the clashes, TLP 'spokesman' Ejaz Ashrafi declared, “We are in our thousands. We will not leave. We will fight until end.” Clashes also took place elsewhere in the country and continued on November 26 as well.

On November 29, 2017, the Islamabad Police told Pakistan's Supreme Court that the November 25 clashes were primarily caused because "they had hurt the religious sentiments of security forces with their inflammatory speeches." A nine-page report submitted by the Islamabad Police stated that the protesters were religiously motivated and that their speeches were targeted at hurting religious sentiments of SFs keeping vigil. It also said that close to 2,000 protesters, mostly armed with stones, pistols, axes, and rods, were present at the protest site.

The protests came to an end after the Army mediated between the protestors and the Government, and the Law Minister Zahid Hamid was forced to resign on November 27, 2017. Hamid stated, “The decision to resign was taken in a bid to steer the country out of the prevailing critical situation.” The resignation was part of an agreement reached between the Government and the protesters.

Pakistan’s export of terrorism continued, primarily targeting its neighbours, India and Afghanistan. Mini Devi Kumam, a Second Secretary in the Permanent Mission of India to United Nations (Geneva), speaking at the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC), noted, on March 8, 2018, "We urge the Council to call on Pakistan to end cross border infiltration; to dismantle special terrorist zones, safe havens and sanctuaries, to take verifiable actions, including on terror financing." Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani on February 2, 2018, similarly accused Pakistan of failing to move against the Afghan Taliban declaring, "We are waiting for Pakistan to act”.

Corroborating India’s and Afghanistan’s concern, Daniel R. Coats, Director of US National Intelligence, categorically stated on February 13, 2018,

Meanwhile, there appears to be little prospect of political stabilization in the country, corruption remains all-pervasive, and has afflicted the highest offices of the land. The ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), continues to face serious problems in the aftermath of the ouster of Prime Minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif following the Supreme Court's ruling in the Panama Papers case. The seat he vacated was won by his wife and PML-N candidate Begum Kulsoom Nawaz, who secured 61,745, ahead  of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) candidate Yasmeen Rashid, who bagged 47,099 votes in a total of 126,46 votes cast (including 1,717 votes which were declared invalid), in what has long been the Sharif’s family burough. Shahid Khaqan Abbasi of PML-N replaced Sharif as Prime Minister, but is widely viewed as a puppet of the Sharifs. With a General Election just around the corner (scheduled for July 2018), and patterns of political disruption escalating, the Army continues to push the boundaries of its authority, and particularly to dominate the export of terrorism into the neighbourhood. Inevitably, this creates some spaces for the continuation of domestic terrorism as well, including sectarian terrorism, which often receives implicit support from the state establishment.

Giriraj Bhattacharjee 
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

The Mizoram Government and the H. Zosangbera faction of the Hmar People's Convention-Democratic (HPC-D-Zosangbera) on April 2, 2018, after six rounds of talks, signed a Memorandum of Settlement (MoS) at the State Guest House in Aizawl. The MoS was signed by Chief Secretary Arvind Ray on behalf of the State Government; and HPC-D-Zosangbera ‘president’ H. Zosangbera. The talks began on August 10, 2016.

According to the MoS, a statutory body named the Sinlung Hills Council (SHC) will be formed through an Act of the State Legislature. The SHC will comprise 14 members of whom 12 would be elected and two nominated, to be headed by the Chief Executive Member (CEM). The proposed body will reportedly have more administrative autonomy to carry out developmental works in 31 villages across three Assembly Constituencies in Mizoram: Chalfilh, Tuivawl and Serlui.

A similar statutory body, the Sinlung Hills Development Council (SHDC), had been formed on May 8, 1997, after the signing of the accord between the original Hmar People's Convention (HPC) and the Government of Mizoram on July 27, 1994.  However, the provisions that were listed in that accord were never fully implemented by the State Government. Lalparkunga, the Secretary of the SHDC’s Implementation Demand Committee, had thus observed on February 12, 2016,

Earlier, the founding ‘president’ of HPC-D, Lalhmingthang Sanate, reportedly signed a "Deed of Agreement" and merged HPC-D with the Kuki National Organisation (KNO). Subsequently, in an ‘emergency meeting’ held on September 29, 2011, those opposing the decision, decided to ‘impeach’ and replace Lalhmingthang Sanate with H. Zosangbera as its ‘president’. The HPC-D thus split into two: HPC-D-Zosangbera and HPC-D-Sanate. Lalhmingthang Sanate was arrested by the Assam Police on February 21, 2018, on charges of murder of Darthang aka Nobar Sanate, ‘finance secretary’ of HPC-D- Zosangbera. Darthang was killed on January 27, 2018, at Lakhipur in the Cachar District of Assam.

The April 2, 2018, MoS, however, does not guarantee complete respite from the Hmar problem. HPC-D-Zosangbera has no doubt expressed satisfaction with the MoS, but in a statement released on April 4, 2018, in noted:

Significantly, according to the 2011 census, a substantial Hmar population resides in Manipur (48,375), Assam (15,745) and Meghalaya (1,797). Mizoram has 29,587 Hmar people.

The Mizoram Government had initiated talks with both the factions of HPC-D who were demanding an Autonomous District Council (ADC) for Mizoram’s Hmar population in the Hmar-dominated areas, under the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution. However, the Government had decided that no new Autonomous District Councils were to be created in the State, and made this a precondition for any talks with insurgent formations. While the HPC-D-Zosangbera, after initial opposition, reportedly accepted the precondition, HPC-D-Sanate rejected the precondition and walked out of the talks. An unnamed State Home Department official on September 4, 2017, thus stated,

The initial phase of the Hmar insurgency, led by the Hmar People's Convention (HPC) started in the late 1980’s in the Hmar inhabited areas of the States of Mizoram, Assam and Manipur, initially demanding a ‘Hmar homeland’. On July 27, 1994, after nine rounds of talks, the first MoS with HPC was signed at Aizawl. The Sinlung Hills Development Council (SHDC) was agreed upon, as part of the MoS, and was later constituted in 1997. At least 308 HPC militants had then surrendered along with their arms.

In the meantime, a disgruntled section within HPC parted ways and formed HPC-D, led by Lalhmingthang Sanate. The main demand of the group was Sixth Schedule status to the Hmar areas. The formation of HPC-D led to the rise of another violent movement in the region, and fuel was added to the fire by the failure to implementation the MoS with HPC.

HPC-D entered into a Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreement with the Government of Mizoram on November 11, 2010, for six months. However, the SoO agreement expired on May 11, 2011, and was not extended by the Mizoram Government on the grounds that HPC-D was violating SoO ground rules. Thereafter, the HPC-D split occurred in September 2011.

On January 31, 2013, HPC-D-Zosangbera signed another SoO, but this was, again, not renewed as talks ended in a deadlock. Talks were revived again in 2016, culminating in the signing of the MoS on April 2, 2018. 

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 66 insurgency-related fatalities linked to the undivided HPC-D (37 civilians, five Security Force personnel, and 24 militants) have been reported from three States – Mizoram, Manipur, and Assam – between 1999 and September 29, 2011. 49 of these fatalities (29 civilians, one trooper, and 19 militants) were reported from Assam, followed by Mizoram with 11 fatalities (seven civilians and four militants) and Manipur with six fatalities (one civilian and five militants).  Since September 30, 2011, another five fatalities linked to HPC-D have been reported: four fatalities linked to HPC-D-Zosangbera and one linked to HPC-D-Sanate.

The April 2, 2018, MoS is a significant step forward, but does not entirely resolve the Hmar imbroglio in Mizoram. In the implementation of the MoS, great care will be needed in accounting for the arms with the rebels, and the identification and rehabilitation of the surrendered militants. It is also crucial that the State Government push the Sanate faction to accept the MoS as well. Crucially, the Government needs to accommodate the concerns of minor tribes within the State in order to reduce social tensions.

AFGHANISTAN

Pakistan PM Khaqan Abbasi and Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani finalize APAPPS in Kabul: Pakistan Prime Minister (PM) Shaid Khaqan Abbasi met Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani on April 6 and agreed to seven key principles to finalize Afghanistan-Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity (APAPPS). The two leaders discussed relations between the two countries, the fight against terrorism, regional connection, Afghan-led peace talks, violations along the Durand Line, return of Afghan refugees, construction of railroad projects, prisoner exchange programs and the APAPPS, the Presidential Palace said in a statement. Tolonews, April 7, 2018.

1,018 persons killed and 792 injured in 171 attacks in 31 provinces of Afghanistan in March 2018: 1,018 persons were killed and 792 injured in 171 attacks in 31 provinces of Afghanistan in March 2018. Available statistic showed that of every 18 persons, nine suffered casualties in face to face clashes, three in air-strikes, suicide attacks, two in targeted attacks and one in blasts. Pajhwok, April 5, 2018.

BANGLADESH

Planning to classify 577 militants who are still active even after being imprisoned, say Law enforcement officers: Law enforcement officers said the authorities are planning to classify 577 militants who are still active even after being imprisoned. According to Police sources, militants who are in jail are influencing others inside to follow their lead and there are 577 militants of varying degrees currently in prison, said jail authorities. Currently, over 500 members of Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), Neo-JMB, Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), Ansar-al-Islam, Hizb-ut-Tahrir, Hizb-ud-Towhid and Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B) are in different prisons around the country. Dhaka Tribune, April 4, 2018.

Prime Minister emphasizes need for real teaching of Islam in the country: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina while inaugurating construction works on nine model mosques and Islamic cultural centers in different places of the country through a videoconference from her official residence, Ganabhaban, in Dhaka city on April 5 emphasized the need for real teaching of Islam in the country. “We want Bangladesh to be built with a non-communal spirit. The people of all faiths will practice their own religious rituals properly. This is the principle of Islam. We want the image of our holy religion to be upheld. Islam is a religion of peace. We want the peace to prevail,” she said. Dhaka Tribune, April 6, 2018.

INDIA

931 security personnel killed in Assam between 1990 and 2016: State Parliamentary Affairs Minister Chandra Mohan Patowary stated that between 1990 and 2016 as many as 931 security personnel have been killed in Assam. Out of the 931 personnel, 480 were Police Personnel. Between 2016-18 seven Security Force personnel have been killed out of which five were from Assam Police. The Sentinel, April 3, 2018.  

Peace deal signed between HPC-D and Mizoram Government: Mizoram Government and H. Zosangbera faction of Hmar People's Convention-Democratic (HPC-D- H. Zosangbera) on April 2 signed ac peace accord to end the over two- decade-old insurgency and three-decade-old deadlock on the Hmar political imbroglio in Mizoram. The signing of the memorandum of Settlement (MoS) was held at the State Guest House, Chaltlang in Aizawl. The MoS was signed by Chief Secretary Arvind Ray, on behalf of the State Government, while the HPC-D- H. Zosangbera was represented by its ‘president’ H. Zosangbera. The Telegraph, April 3, 2018. 

 

PAKISTAN

Lahore high court asks Government not to ‘harass’ JuD chief Hafiz Saeed: The Lahore high court on April 5 warned the Government against ‘harassment’ of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) co-founder and the chief of Jama'at-ud-Dawa (JuD) Hafiz Muhammad Saeed and ordered authorities to not disrupt his "social" activities till the next hearing. The decision comes two days after the US designated Saeed's newly founded political party, Milli Muslim League (MML), as a terrorist organisation. Times of India, April 6, 2018.

US designates Hafiz Saeed's Milli Muslim League as terrorist outfit: In a major move ahead of the general elections in Pakistan, the United States (US) on April 2 designated Milli Muslim League (MML), the political front of Hafiz Saeed-led Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD), as a foreign terrorist organization. In a simultaneous move, seven members of MML central leadership body have been designated as foreign terrorist. The US also added Tehreek-e-Azadi-e-Kashmir (TAJK) to the list of terrorist groups. TAJK is said to be a front of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), which according to the Trump administration, continues to operate freely inside Pakistan. Times of India, April 3, 2018.