South Asia Terrorism Portal

Securing Elections  
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

On May 11, 2018, at least four unidentified militants were killed and another four persons, including two personnel of the ‘public uprising force’ and two militants, were injured when militants attacked a voter-registration center in the Kamarab region of Firoz Koh City (District), the capital of the Ghor Province. The first ‘public uprising force’ was reportedly formed way in 2013, when a number of people in the Andar District of Ghazni took up arms against the Taliban. Since then, according to varying media reports, activities of such ‘forces’ have been reported from at least 17 out of the 34 provinces in the country, though the total number and strength of such ‘forces’ is not known. Confirming that such ‘forces’ had the support of the Government, Second Vice President of the National Unity Government Mohammad Sarwar Danish, had stated, in August 2017, “The Afghan Government welcomes and supports the public uprising forces. We urge our people, especially the youth of every region not to just be witnesses but to cooperate with the national army and police forces and to stand with the public uprising forces (against the insurgents).”

On May 8, 2018, six Policemen and three militants were killed and six Policemen and another three militants injured, when militants attacked a voter-registration center in the Laman Region of Qala-e-Naw District of Badghis Province.  

On May 6, 2018, at least 17 civilians were killed and 34 were injured in an explosion that targeted a mosque where people had gathered to obtain voter cards in the Yaqoobi area in Khost City (District), the capital of Khost Province.

These incidents were among a series of attacks deliberately targeting election-related facilities since the commencement of the voter-registration process on April 14, 2018, for the Parliamentary and District Council elections scheduled for October 20, 2018. On May 10, 2018, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) in a report titled 'Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict: Election-Related Attacks and Abuses during the Initial Voter Registration Period' stated,

The date till which incidents were covered in the report was not specified.

Partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM) identifies at least 10 election-related incidents of violence across Afghanistan after voter-registration began (data till May 13, 2018). These incidents resulted in 111 deaths [94 civilians, eight security force (SF) personnel, and nine militants] and 194 injured. As mentioned above in the UNAMA report, the April 22, 2018, Kabul attack was the worst such incident. The Islamic State or Daesh claimed responsibility for the Kabul attack.

Tadamichi Yamamoto, the United Nations Secretary-General's Special Representative for Afghanistan and Head of the UNAMA since June 2016, thus observed, in the aftermath of the Kabul attack,

Indeed, the adverse impact of these incidents has already been noticed. On May 11, 2018, civilians protested against shutting down of 77 polling stations due to the security threat, depriving more than 300,000 people of their right to vote in nine Districts of Paktika Province. Melma Civil Society and Media Organization Head Yaqub Khan Manzor disclosed that closing the 77 polling stations in the nine districts was a joint decision of the Independent Election Commission (IEC) of Afghanistan and the military.

Significantly, on April 1, 2018, IEC of Afghanistan Chairman Abdul Badi Sayat had confirmed that the long-delayed Afghan Parliamentary and District Council elections would be held on October 20. Afghanistan has, so far, held two Parliamentary elections since the end of Taliban rule, the first in 2005 and the second in 2010. The third election – which was due in April-May 2015, as the five-year term of the present Parliament was set to expire on June 22, 2015 – could not be held. The elections were repeatedly postponed thereafter, both because of security fears as well as disagreements on how to ensure a fair vote after the bitterly contested Presidential Election of 2014. In the meantime, President Ashraf Ghani extended the Parliament’s mandate until a vote could be held, through a decree issued on June 19, 2015. The current Parliament is operating under this decree. District Council Elections have not been held since Taliban rule ended, despite being mandated in the 2004 Constitution.

According to UNAMA’s 2014 Mid-Year report, at least 242 violent incidents targeting the 2014 Presidential Elections, had resulting in 380 civilian casualties (74 killed and 306 injured). In fact, civilian casualties, which had remained in four digits till 2013, entered five digits in 2014 for the first time since 2009, when UNAMA started documenting casualties. Since then, casualties have remained in five digits. There were 10,453 casualties (3,438 deaths and 7,015 injured) in 2017. As of March 30, 2018, such casualties had already reached 2,258 (763 deaths and 1,495 injured). Despite this, the new date of the election has been announced, reportedly because President Ashraf Ghani’s credibility was on the line with both Afghan voters and increasingly impatient international partners.

Meanwhile, internal discord within the Government, which has existed since the time of its formation in 2014, has become prominent once again. On May 3, 2018, Abdullah Abdullah, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the Government of Afghanistan, vehemently opposing the launch of the electronic-National Identity Cards (e-NIC) distribution by President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani and declared that “all the national processes which are not being consulted within the National Unity Government (NUG) and with the people of Afghanistan are not legitimate and I will not be part of those processes.” Abdullah also warned that the distribution process of e-NIC will unfortunately divide people further and add further to problems. Earlier, in the day, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani had inaugurated the distribution of e-NIC, hailing it as an important step toward securing national elections. A day later, the Jamaat-e-Islami party, a prominent coalition partner in the Government, also criticized the move, arguing that it was not appropriate to launch the distribution of e-NIC as there are pending controversies in its contents, specifically the nationality of identity card holders.

According to reports, the main point of contention has been the use of the word “Afghan” on the cards to refer to all Afghan citizens. The word was historically synonymous with Pashtuns, the country’s largest ethnic group. Other groups, especially the Tajiks, who are the second largest ethnic group, have objected that using “Afghan” would politically benefit the Pashtuns.

A relatively peaceful conduct of the scheduled Parliamentary and District Council elections is essential for Afghanistan, as indefinite delay in the democratic process can only add to the country’s present misery in the country. However, the challenges of holding this massive electoral exercise within circumstances of enveloping violence across wide areas of the country remain overwhelming.

Extremist Spectre 
Nijeesh N.
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

The Global Terrorism Index 2017 report states, "Over the last 15 years, Bhutan and the Maldives have experienced the lowest levels of terrorist impact in the region." There were, nevertheless, several developments indicative of growing Islamist radicalization in the Maldives in the recent past, adversely impacting its national security. Former President Mohamed Nasheed in an interview published on February 25, 2018, thus warned,

Worryingly, several Maldivians have gone to the conflict zones in Syria and Iraq to participate in jihad. On January 15, 2018, Maldives’ Defence Minister Adam Shareef had disclosed that 61 Maldivians had travelled to Syria to fight along with jihadi groups [Islamic State or Daesh and al Qaeda-affiliated Al-Nusra Front or Jabhat al-Nusra – currently also known as the Jabhat Fateh al-Sham]. However, the Soufan Group’s report on foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq  published in December 2015 claimed that around 200 Maldivians were fighting in Syria and Iraq, making the Maldives the world’s second largest number of foreign fighters ‘per capita’ (500 fighters per million population), after Tunisia (at 545.5 fighters per million).

Defence Minister Shareef had also disclosed that around 68 persons, including nine children, had been stopped from going to Syria to join jihadist groups. Reports indicate that the first traces of such emigration were noticed when two youth were detained at the Ibrahim Nasir International Airport (INIA) at  Male in October 2013. Some of the other recent arrests include:

October 21, 2017: Two Maldivians en-route to Syria were arrested in Turkey and brought back to their country.

September 23, 2017: Three Maldivians en route to Syria were arrested in Turkey and brought back. The three men were arrested in a joint operation with the Turkish law enforcement authorities while they were trying to cross the border into Syria.

August 7-9, 2017: Two Maldivians were among 19 suspected terrorists arrested for their alleged links with Islamic State in Malaysia. The duo was using Malaysia and Singapore as their transit points before heading to Syria to join Daesh.

February, 2017: A Maldivian man was arrested in Turkey and deported to the Maldives while attempting to cross-over to Syria.

February, 2016: Three Maldivians, identified as Ahmed Latheef, Ahmed Suhail Moosa and Munawwar Abdulla were arrested on the Turkey-Syria border and extradited to the Maldives in March.

Further, according to a classified report prepared by the Indian Intelligence Bureau in July 2016, the Islamic State reportedly had as many as 500 sympathisers in Maldives in addition to those who had already travelled to Syria and Iraq to join the conflict.

Significantly, Yameen Rasheed, a popular liberal blogger and a strong voice against radical Islamist elements, was stabbed to death in his apartment in Male on the North Male Atoll on April 23, 2017. Weeks before his assassination, Rasheed had received several death threats from various sources, including Islamic State-inspired extremist groups and gangs.

Surprisingly, according to an April 17, 2018 report, one Maldivian (identity not revealed), who in 2017 went to Syria to fight alongside terrorist groups (along with his wife and child) returned to the Maldives in March 2018 and lives in the capital, Male. Reports indicate that he had participated in terrorist activities while in Syria; however, no action has been initiated against him. 

According to various releases from Islamic State and al Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra, at least 12 to 20 Maldivians have already been killed in different conflict zones of the Middle East. In one such incident, on December 24, 2017, a 25 year old Maldivian fighter, a native of Naivaidhoo on the Haa Dhaal Atoll, who left the country in early 2017, (name not specified) was killed while fighting in Syria.

Confirming the continuing presence of Maldivians in West Asian conflict zones on January 20, 2018, Jabhat al-Nusra’s media wing, Bilad al-Sham Media (BASM, the media outlet for Maldivians fighting in Syria) released a video of Maldivian fighters undertaking jihadi training at an unspecified location in Syria. The video shows men in camouflage performing drills, handling of weapons and raiding buildings.

In the meantime, with Daesh losing ground in Syria and Iraq, the foreign fighters have started retuning home, to their country of origin, including Maldives. This is likely to further endanger the security situation within the country. Referring to the challenges to countries from Daesh returnees the Global Terrorism Index 2017 report warned,

It is indeed a sign of danger as there have already been attempts in the past by the cadres of Islamic State to create trouble in the country. The incidents include:

November 16, 2017: Two men were arrested for making an improvised explosive device (IED) and Police recovered bomb making equipment at the home of one of them in Male. Though the Police did not reveal any further information about the incident, sources indicate that “one [of the arrested persons] is a senior member of a gang and both are suspected to have had connections with foreign jihadi groups”.

November 15, 2017: Maldivian officials confirmed that two Maldivians, Ishag Ali and Hussein Afeef, who were arrested on an unspecified date in September 2017 for their connection with Islamic State, were planning to carry out a suicide attack in the capital Male. The prosecutor general’s spokesman Adam Thaufeeq disclosed that one was charged for planning a suicide attack, while the other was charged for attempting to carry it out, adding, “The police investigation found out that these men are affiliated with IS and they were planning to carry out an attack in Male.”

May 2017:  A Maldivian man was arrested for hoisting the flag of Islamic State near the skating ground of the artificial beach in Male.

The initial sign of Daesh’s presence in the country was exposed with the emergence of an online group, called Islamic State of Maldives (ISM), which claimed to be a local affiliate, in the last week of July 2014. Later on September 5, 2014, there was a protest conducted by about 200 people, including women and children, some carrying Islamic State flags, calling for the full implementation of Sharia law and an end to secular rule in the Maldives.

There have, in addition, been several acts of violence indicative of the prevalent radicalization. These prominently include:  

August 8, 2014: Well-known blogger and journalist, Ahmed Rilwan, was abducted by unidentified people from at his apartment in the island of Hulhumale in North Male Atoll. Rilwan, a one-time Islamist who became a critic of the religious right-wing, played a major role in exposing the activities of Islamist extremist groups in the country. Though the Maldives Police is investigating his case, they are yet to locate him.

October 1, 2012: Religious scholar and Member of Parliament for Ungoofaaru Constituency, Afrasheem Ali, was stabbed to death by Islamist extremists after he expressed his reformist views about religion, especially related to gender equality and music, in a television broadcast. 

June 4, 2012: Blogger and human rights activist, Ismail Hilath Rasheed narrowly survived a murder attempt after he was stabbed in the neck by three Islamist extremists. It was the third physical assault on him after he started getting regular death threats subsequent to his writing in 2009, that some extremists were keeping under-age girls as concubines.

The September 29, 2007, Sultan Park bombing in Male is considered as the first-ever Islamist terror attack in the Maldives. A crude bomb, consisting of a gas cylinder, a mobile phone, and a washing machine motor, exploded in Sultan Park (now renamed as Rasrani Bageechaa) located near the Islamic Centre in the capital Male. 12 foreign tourists, including eight Chinese, two British, and two Japanese, were seriously injured.

The threat of terror persists. In September 2017, the Foreign Office of the United Kingdom updated its terror guidelines on the Maldives, warning that an attack was “very likely”, and adding, “Attacks could be indiscriminate, including in places frequented by expatriates and foreign travellers including tourists.”

With the growing influence of radicalization and jihadi networks in the country, the National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC) was established through Presidential Decree (2016/3) on February 25, 2016. The NCTC, which works under the direct supervision of the Minister of Defence and National Security, and is currently staffed by the Maldivian National Defence Force (MNDF), constituted two executive committees: the Counter Terrorism Steering Committee and the Deradicalization Committee, to focus on the issues of Maldivian citizens joining as fighters in conflict zones such as Syria. According to NCTC’s March 2018 Newsletter, “as a result of collaborative efforts between NCTC, Maldives Police Service, Maldives Immigration and with enormous support from international partners, the number of Maldivian Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs) traveling to Syria has declined to a single case in the first three months of 2018.”  

In spite of this brave posturing the State responses to these emerging threats remain uncertain. Even the anti-terrorism laws in the country define the idea of terrorism and affiliation to terrorist organizations in a vague manner, and could be used more against the political opposition rather than against its declared targets. 

Amidst all this, the smallest country in South Asia, comprising 1,192 small islands, grouped in 26 atolls and situated in the Indian Ocean, is going through another cycle of political crises. President Abdulla Yameen declared a 15-day ‘state of emergency’ in the country on February 5, 2018, soon after the Supreme Court ordered the release of a group of opposition political leaders, including the exiled former President Mohamed Nasheed, who had been convicted in widely criticised trials. The state of emergency was extended by another 30 days on February 20, 2018, but eventually ended on March 22, 2018, when the President decided to withdraw the draconian law after filing terrorism charges against his political opponents, including his half-brother and former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, his son-in-law Mohamed Nadheem, Chief Justice Abdulla Saeed and Justice Ali Hameed, four opposition lawmakers and an ex-Police commissioner. Former President Mohamed Nasheed, who was granted political asylum in Britain in 2016 and leads the main opposition party from exile, alleged that the President’s moves were aimed at winning the Presidential elections scheduled for September 2018.

The Maldivian state has sought to use Islamist mobilization to contain Islamist radicalization, creating contradictory impulses within the system, and creating spaces for extremism and terrorism. It is only through of strategy of consistently and narrowly targeting extremists, even as the state distances itself from its own brand of religious radicalization, that current trends can be neutralized and reversed, and the threat of terrorism in and from the Maldives contained.