South Asia Terrorism Portal

Chhattisgarh: Bijapur: 'Revolution' Interrupted 
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

On April 27, 2018, eight Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres, including six female cadres, were killed in an encounter with Security Forces (SFs) in the deep forests under Ilmidi Police Station limits in Bijapur District, Chhattisgarh. The Police recovered one Self Loading Rifle (SLR), one .303 rifle, four 12-bore guns, four Single Barrel Breach Loading (SBBL) guns, one .315 bore rifle, one revolver, live cartridges, three hand grenades, six rocket launchers, four pairs of olive green dresses and Naxal [Left Wing Extremist (LWE)] literature from the encounter spot. According to Special Director General (anti-Naxal Operations), D. M. Awasthi, the killed CPI-Maoist cadres were active in the Usoor and Basaguda area of Bijapur District.

On April 5, 2018, a CPI-Maoist cadre, identified as Mangu Oyam, was killed in an encounter with SFs in a forest near Itampara village in Bijapur District. After the operation the Police recovered one .315 bore rifle along with 10 live rounds, one INSAS (Indian Small Arms System) assault rifle magazine with four live rounds, an improvised explosive device (IED) weighing two kilograms, a couple of detonators, and other material from the encounter site.

On March 1, 2018, at least 10 CPI-Maoist cadres, including six women, and one trooper were killed in an encounter near Pujarikanker in Bijapur District. The Police also recovered one AK-47 rifle, one SLR, two single bore rifles, five INSAS assault rifles, one .303 rifle, one pistol, three claymore mines, two solar plates, seven kit bags, a Sony radio, empty cartridges, live ammunition of different calibres, Naxal literature and cash amounting to INR 41,000 from the encounter site.

According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 22 Maoists have been killed in Bijapur District thus far in 2018 (all data till May 6, 2018). These Maoists have been killed in five incidents. During the corresponding period in 2017, seven Maoists had been killed in six incidents. A total of 18 Maoists were killed in the District, in 14 incidents through 2017. There were at least 33 Maoist fatalities in 17 incidents in 2016; 17 in nine incidents in 2015; 20 in 12 incidents in 2014; 11 in seven incidents in 2013; 27 in seven incidents in 2012; 14 in seven incidents in 2011; and 31 in eight incidents in 2010. The highest number of Maoist fatalities was recorded in 2008 at 44, while a low of 10 in this category was registered in 2007, after May 11. The District of Bijapur was carved out from the erstwhile Dantewada District on May 11, 2007. The lowest number of fatalities recorded in a full year after the creation of Bijapur in this category was 11 in 2013. A total of 289 Maoists have been neutralised since the creation of the District.

In 2018, out of 27 Districts in the State, only four – Bijapur, Dantewada, Rajnandgaon and Sukma – have recorded Maoist fatalities. Bijapur headed the list, with 22 such fatalities; followed by Sukma with nine, Rajnandgaon with three, and Dantewada with one. Additionally, out of 12 Districts across four States from where Maoist fatalities have been recorded in the current year, Bijapur was the second highest, with 22 fatalities; preceded by Gadchiroli (Maharashtra) with 48 Maoist fatalities. Significantly, Bijapur shares a border with Gadchiroli.

Further, combing operations also resulted in the arrest of 17 Maoists in Bijapur District in 2018, according to SATP data. During the corresponding period in 2017, 18 Maoists had been arrested, and a total of 68 through 2017. SF pressure also led to the surrender of six Maoists in 2018. During the corresponding period in 2017, five Maoists had surrendered, and a total of 11 through 2017.

However, in the face-off with the Maoists, SFs have also recorded a loss of at least eight of their personnel in Bijapur in the current year (data till May 6, 2018). During the corresponding period in 2017, four SF personnel had lost their lives, and a total of seven through 2017. Thus, the Maoists also have some ‘successes’ in the current year.

Meanwhile, civilian fatalities, a crucial index of the security situation in an area, which had been declining since 2014, and had come to their lowest in 2017, at three, has already reached five in the current year. 

Fatalities in Bijapur District and Chhattisgarh: 2007*- 2018** 

Indeed, in a media interview on April 17, 2018, Chief Minister (CM) Raman Singh conceded that Left-Wing Extremists still retain dominance in "15-20 per cent areas" in just two Districts – Bijapur and Sukma.

An overview of fatalities since Bijapur’s creation on May 11, 2007, shows that the District has registered at least 606 Maoist-linked fatalities, including 289 Maoists, 156 SF personnel and 161 civilians, roughly 26.37 per cent of the total of 2,298 fatalities, including 853 Maoists, 892 SF personnel and 553 civilians, recorded in the State during this period (data till May 6, 2018). It is significant that Chhattisgarh, which remains the hotbed of a significantly weakened Maoist insurgency, has alone contributed around 37.23 per cent of total Maoist-linked fatalities across the country over the corresponding period (May 11, 2007 – to May 6, 2018). The total number of fatalities across India during this period was 6,171 (2,511 civilians, 1,584 SF personnel and 2,076 Maoists), out of which Chhattisgarh accounted for 2,298 (553 civilians, 892 SF personnel and 853 Maoists). In the current year, with 87 fatalities (22 civilians, 30 SF personnel and 35 Maoists), 47.54 per cent of the total of 183 fatalities (47 civilians, 33 SF personnel and 103 Maoists) across the country in 2018; the State continues to maintain its unfortunate primacy.

The latest figures provided by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) indicate that 804 of the 908 LWE-linked incidents reported in 2017 across the country, took place in 35 Districts (88.55 per cent). Incidentally, Bijapur District with 60 incidents was ranked third among the worst affected; preceded by Gadchiroli District in Maharashtra with 68 incidents and the Sukma District of Chhattisgarh with the highest number, at 102. Bijapur shares borders with both Gadchiroli and Sukma.

Falling under the formidable Abujhmad region and the troubled Bastar Division, which still remain the primary challenge for the State, Bijapur, has a vast ‘geo-strategic importance’ for the Maoists. Sharing its boundaries with the Maoist-afflicted Narayanpur District (Chhattisgarh) to the North; Bastar District (Chhattisgarh) to the North-east; Dantewada District (Chhattisgarh) to the east; Sukma District (Chhattisgarh) to the South-east; Karimnagar, Warangal and Khammam Districts of Telangana on the south; and Gadchiroli District of Maharashtra on the West, makes it an ideal ground for the extremists. Unsurprisingly, in recent twin encounters on April 22-23, 2018, at least 40 Maoists were killed in Gadchiroli District, which was followed by the April 27, 2018, incident in which eight Maoists were eliminated in Bijapur.

The NITI Aayog on March 28, 2018, launched the baseline ranking for the ‘Aspirational Districts’ based on published data of 49 indicators (81 data points) across five developmental areas of Health and Nutrition, Education, Agriculture and Water Resources, Financial Inclusion and Skill Development, and Basic Infrastructure. Bijapur is among the 115 identified backwards Districts. Coincidentally, according to the “District Development and Diversity Index Report for India and Major States,” a joint survey conducted by the US-India Policy Institute (USIPI) and the Centre for Research and Debates in Development Policy (CRDDP), New Delhi, which included 599 Districts across India within its purview, Bijapur was ranked 372^nd, i.e., among the relatively deprived Districts. The report released on January 29, 2015, took composite development — measured in terms of economic development and indices of health, education and material well-being – into consideration.

On April 8, 2018, Chief Minister Raman Singh admitting the reality that there are many backward Districts in Chhattisgarh, including Bijapur, Dantewada, and Sukma, observed,

He also claimed that "frustrated Maoists" are losing their footholds due to the joint actions of the State and Central Governments, which have put the State on the path of development by building roads, schools and hospitals in remote and inaccessible areas that were earlier hotbeds of Maoist activity.

Meanwhile, laying out plans for various development works during his visit to Bijapur on April 14, 2018, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the first Health & Wellness Centre under the new healthcare system, the Ayushman Bharat Yojana (Blessed India Plan), at a tribal habitat, Jangala, in the District. He also rolled out the Van Dhan Yojana (Forest Wealth Plan) which aimed to train and empower the tribals in collecting and processing minor forest produce. The Prime Minister also inaugurated several development projects, including a new rail line, internet services, a dialysis centre at Bijapur District Hospital, as well as roads and bridges in the District.

The Maoists are facing a severe existential threat in their ‘core areas’, including Bijapur, though they retain the wherewithal to carry out surprise attacks targeting SFs. Past operational successes and a sustained developmental thrust have, however, weakened the movement drastically, and focused efforts by SFs and other State agencies are now in a position to transform past gains into an enduring peace.

Northeast: Negotiated Successes 
Giriraj Bhattacharjee
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management

The Union Government and seven Naga militant groups are, according to an April 25, 2018, news report, said to have finalized the substantive portions of the peace accord, which is likely to be signed before the upcoming monsoon session of Parliament scheduled to begin in July 2018. Unnamed official sources stated that the accord does not change the boundary of States; provides autonomous Naga territorial councils for Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur; a common cultural body for Nagas across States; specific institutions for Nagaland’s development, integration and rehabilitation of Naga militants; and the removal of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act-1958 (AFSPA). The Government of India's interlocutor on Naga talks, Joint Intelligence Committee Chairman, R.N. Ravi, was quoted as stating, “Yes, we are pretty close to finalising the (Naga Peace) Accord”.

The seven Naga groups in talks include the Isak-Muivah faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM) and six members of the Naga National Political Groups (NNPG) which was formed on December 13, 2016. The NNPG include National Socialist Council of Nagaland–Neopao Konyak Kitovi (NSCN-NK), NSCN–Reformation (NSCN-R), and four factions of the Naga National Council (NNC) – the Federal Government of Nagaland (FGN), NNC-Parent Body, Non-Accordist faction of NNC/National People's Government of Nagaland (NNC-NA/NPGN), and Government Democratic Republic of Nagaland (GDRN).

Three of these groups had signed SoO/ceasefire-agreement before joining the peace talks: NSCN-IM, NSCN-NK and NSCN-R. The Union Government signed a ceasefire agreement with NSCN-IM on July 25, 1997, which came into effect on August 1, 1997. Later, NSCN-IM signed a ceasefire agreement for an indefinite period on July 31, 2007. A ceasefire agreement with NSCN-NK (earlier known as NSCN-KK) was signed on April 27, 2012, and with NSCN-R on April 27, 2015. The other four groups were not found involved in violent activities and hence were not required to sign any SoO/cease-fire before joining talks. Further, as members of NNPG they have resolved 'not to betray each other in the manner of instability and untrustworthiness'.

Another 36 militant formations, once active across different states of the Northeast, are presently engaged in talks with the Government after signing the SoO/cease-fire on separate occasions earlier. These include 23 Manipur-based groups  and 13 Assam-based groups.

The 23 Manipur-based militant groups are engaged in talks under the aegis of two umbrella organizations: the Kuki National Organisation (KNO) and the United Peoples Front (UPF). The KNO comprises of 15 groups, while the UPF has eight constituents. The KNO and UPF together recently placed a written demand for a Territorial Council for the Kuki tribe before A.B. Mathur, the Union Government’s interlocutor for the negotiations, during talks held in Delhi on January 10, 2018.

The 13 Assam-based groups are at different stages of talks. Referring to the status of talks with the United Liberation Front of Asom – Pro Talks Faction (ULFA-PTF), Additional Director General of Police-Special Branch (ADGP-SB) Pallab Bhattacharya observed on December 16, 2017, “The peace talk is going towards the right direction. And the process will speed up after the draft NRC [National Register for Citizens] publication”. The same view was also expressed by ULFA-PTF 'chairman' Arabinda Rajkhowa, who stated that the deliberations were at the last stage.

However, according to an October 20, 2017, report, 'general secretary' the Pro-Talks faction of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB-PTF) Gobinda Basumatary claimed that talks had not made much headway, adding, “We have felt that the Centre lacks sincerity towards the ongoing peace process. It is really unfortunate that the peace talks have not progressed at all. We are particularly disappointed that, after the NDA government came to power, the parleys have not made any headway.”

The latest rounds of talks with Ranjan Daimary led NDFB-RD took place on August 25, 2017. Later, on December 11, 2017, a trial by a fast track court was initiated against Ranjan Daimary in the serial blasts case of October 30, 2008, in which he is a prime accused. This infuriated Daimary, who declared, on the day the trial began, “We have apprised the government that it may not be possible to continue peace talks and the fast-track trial simultaneously. We have requested them to give it a rethink. We are hoping for a positive response from the government,"

The talks with Karbi Longri North Cachar Hills Liberation Front (KLNLF) appear to have reached a standstill as well. Rijak Dera, the group’s 'publicity secretary', stated, on February 11, 2018, that the KLNLF has completed 55 rounds of talks, both formal and informal, with the Government of India. He, however, claimed that, “The lack of seriousness on the part of the Central government is due to regular changing of interlocutors for peace talks between the KLNLF and the government.”

The five Adivasi groups – Adivasi People’s Army (APA), Adivasi Cobra Military of Assam (ACMA), Birsa Commando Force (BCF), All Adivasi National Liberation Army (AANLA), Santhal Tiger Force (STF) – are negotiating under the banner of the Adivasi National Convention (ANC), with a principle demand of granting Scheduled Tribe status within the State, and a settlement for the militant groups. The latest round of talks was held in New Delhi on April 24, 2017. The Union Government had set up a committee to examine the proposal. No further progress has been reported.

The status of talks with the remaining four outfits is not known.

Moreover, successful negotiation processes completed by successive Governments, both at the State and Union level, have resulted in the signing of seven Memoranda of Settlement (MoS)/ Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) with nine militant groups spread across Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya and Mizoram. These groups include: the Bodo Liberation Tigers (BLT), United People's Democratic Solidarity (UPDS), Dima Halam Daogah (DHD-Dilip Nunisa and DHD-Jewel Garlosa), Nayan Basi faction of the National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT-NB), United A'chik Liberation Army (UALA), A'chik National Volunteer Council (ANVC), Breakaway faction of ANVC (ANVC-B) and Hmar People's Convention-Democratic (HPC-D).

A MoS for the creation of the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) was signed at New Delhi on February 10, 2003, between the representatives of the Union Government, Assam Government and a BLT delegation.

A MoU was signed with the NLFT-NB on December 17, 2004. Under the provisions of the MoU, a Socio-Economic package of INR 646.3 million was given for tribal welfare and development, as well as for the rehabilitation of the old militant formations.

The United People’s Democratic Solidarity (UPDS) signed MoS on November 25, 2011, while two factions of the Dima Halam Daogah (DHD-Dilip Nunisa and DHD-Jewel Garlosa) signed a MoS on October 8, 2012.

On September 24, 2014, the MoS was signed between the Union Government, the Meghalaya State Government, and the A'chik National Volunteer Council (ANVC) as well as its breakaway faction (ANVC-B).

On December 15, 2018, the MoS was signed between the Meghalaya State Government and the United A'chik Liberation Army (UALA).

On April 2, 2018, the Mizoram Government and the H. Zosangbera faction of the Hmar People's Convention-Democratic (HPC-D-Zosangbera), after six rounds of talks, signed a MoS at the State Guest House in the State Capital Aizawl. The talks began on August 10, 2016.

Not surprisingly, insurgency related violence in the region is at its lowest. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), total insurgency related fatalities in the current year were 26 (data till May 6, 2018). During the corresponding period, such fatalities stood at 34 in 2017, at 60 in 2016 and 100 in 2015. All India fatalities have also been following a broadly declining trend, with a total of 976 killed in 2014; 722 in 2015; 898 in 2016; and 803 in 2017.

Worryingly, some of the groups which had joined talks with the Government have split (some of them multiply) after they joined the talks process. Prominent among these was ULFA, which split into two: ULFA-PTF and the anti-talks faction (ULFA-ATF), later rechristened as the Independent faction of ULFA (ULFA-I). NDFB splintered into NDFB-PTF and NDFB-RD [Ranjan Daimary]. Later, NDFB-RD split with the formation of the I.K. Songbijit faction (NDFB-IKS) under the leadership of I.K. Songbijit [now known as Saraigowra faction].  A splinter group of the United People's Democratic Solidarity (UPDS) formed under the designation KLNLF, which itself faced split leading to formation of the Karbi People's Liberation Tigers (KPLT).

There is also the unique case of the Khaplang faction of NSCN (NSCN-K) which unilaterally abrogated the cease-fire on March 27, 2015, asserting that there was “no use extending ceasefire without discussing the issue of Naga sovereignty”. Significantly, the ceasefire had lasted almost 14 years, having been signed on April 28, 2001. The Government failed to initiate a substantive dialogue with the outfit through this period. The NSCN-K also split during and after the abrogation of the, into the include Khole-Kitovi faction (NSCN-KK, subsequently rechristened as NSCN-NK), and NSCN-R.

NSCN-K, along with some splinter groups of major insurgent formations including ULFA-I, NDFB-IKS, and the Coordination Committee (CorCom) which comprises of six Manipur based insurgent groups] are now violently active and primarily responsible for the residual threats in the region. Past experience indicates that many of the militant formations which joined peace processes were first softened militarily. The Government is, consequently, likely to continue with security operations in the region, while keeping the door open for talks. Efforts are also made to bring entire groups to the table, rather than individual factions, so that no new group emerges. There is, nevertheless, urgent need to telescope protracted negotiations, so that the frustration among groups in various peace processes do not boil over into splits and renewed violence.