South Asia Terrorism Portal
Sindh: Fuelling Separatism Tushar Ranjan Mohanty Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On January 18, 2021, in a massive pro-freedom rally organised in Sann Town in Jamshoro District of Sindh, on the 117th birth anniversary of Ghulam Murtaza Syed, one of the founding fathers of modern Sindh nationalism, protesters raised placards of several world leaders to seek their intervention for the liberation of Sindh. The world leaders whose placards were used include Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani, Bangladesh Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina, British PM Boris Johnson, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Indian PM Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, US President-elect Joe Biden (he later assumed office on January 20) and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. The posters declared, “Sindh wants freedom from Pakistan”.
A rally was organised on November 8, 2020, in Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh, where a large number of protestors took to the streets, protesting against what they called the illegal occupation of their land by Pakistan. Held under the banner of 'Sindhudesh Freedom Movement', the demonstrators carried placards reading: "Sindhudesh is our vision, mission, destiny and motherland." People held up pictures of Sindhi political activists and leaders who had been abducted or killed.
Though, pro-freedom rallies in Sindh have been a regular feature since 1972 when the freedom movement was started by Ghulam Murtaza Syed, they have gained momentum of late.
The ‘freedom movement’ in Sindh is led by groups such as Jeay Sindh Qaumi Mahaz (JSQM), Jeay Sindh Muttahida Mahaz (JSMM), Jeay Sindh Students' Federation (JSSF) and Sindh National Movement Party (SNMP).
On November 8, 2020, Shafi Burfat, the chairman of JSMM, stated,
The ‘freedom movement’ has got the support from terrorist groups operating in Sindh and Balochistan, which also is witnessing similar demands. The prominent groups include Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army (SRA), Sindhudesh Liberation Army (SLA), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Baloch Republican Army (BRA), Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) and Baloch Republican Guards (BRG).
Parallel to the groups leading the ‘freedom movement’, Sindhi and Baloch militant groups have increased their activities on ground, resulting in increased violence in Sindh. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Sindh recorded 52 fatalities (21 civilians, 20 Security Force, SF personnel and 11 militants) in 2020, as compared to 25 fatalities (15 civilians, five SF personnel and five militants) in 2019, registering an over two-fold increase. Significantly, overall fatalities had been declining in Sindh since 2014, when fatalities fell to 1,147 from 1,656 in 2013. 2013 recorded the maximum number of fatalities in a year since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on major conflicts in Pakistan.
The numbers suggest that SFs have again lost ground. The SF:terrorist kill ratio was in favour of the terrorists in 2020, at 1.81:1, for the first time since 2010, when it was 2.57:1.
There were 21 civilian fatalities in 2020 as against 15 in 2019.
Further, the number of overall terrorism-linked incidents increased marginally from 69 in 2019 to 70 in 2020. However, incidents of killing increased from 18 to 29, and included one successful suicide attack in 2020, as against one failed attempt in 2019.
Nine persons, including four private security guards and one Police Sub-Inspector, were killed in a suicide attack targeting the Pakistan Stock Exchange on Chundrigar Road in Karachi, on June 29, 2020. Though all the four fidayeens (suicide attackers) were killed near the entrance gates, before they could enter the building, five SF personnel at the gates and one bystander were killed in the attack.
There was also a considerable increase in the number of explosions in 2020. As compared to just one blast resulting in one fatality in 2019, year 2020 recorded 13 explosions resulting in 16 fatalities.
The geographical spread of violence also increased, with fatalities reported from eight Districts of Sindh in 2020, as against just two districts in 2019. Provincial capital Karachi recorded the highest number of fatalities in 2020, with 38 killings, followed by Dadu, six; Sukkur, two; and one fatality each in Jacobabad, Khairpur, Larkana, Naushahro Feroze, Sanghar and Tando Allahyar. Sindh has a total of 29 Districts.
Of the two major attacks (each involving three or more fatalities) reported in 2020, the BLA and SRA claimed one each. While the BLA claimed responsibility for the June 29 Pakistan Stock Exchange attack, the SRA claimed responsibility for the coordinated attacks on Pakistan Rangers (Sindh) at three places of Sindh (Larkana, Karachi and Ghotki) on June 19, in which nine SF personnel were killed and 14 were injured. SRA spokesperson, Sodho Sindhi, declared in a statement,
According to SATP, out of 21 civilian fatalities recorded in Sindh in 2020, the BLA was responsible for 10, while 11 fatalities remain unattributed. Similarly, out of 20 SF fatalities recorded in 2020, SRA was responsible for 12, and BLA for one, while seven fatalities remain unattributed.
According to the Security Report 2020 released by the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), an Islamabad-based think tank, Sindhi nationalist groups perpetrated 10 terrorist attacks in Sindh in 2020, including eight by the banned Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army alone.
In view of the increasing violence by Sindhi nationalist groups, the Federal Government banned three groups on May 7, 2020: SRA, SLA and Jeay Sindh Qaumi Mahaz – Arisar (JSQM-A), the militant wing of JSMM.
Further, to suppress the rising Sindhi nationalism movement, the Government continues with its policy of enforced disappearances. According to Pakistan’s Commission of Enquiry on Enforced Disappearances (COIED), Sindh accounted for a total of 1,618 cases of missing persons between March 1, 2011 (the date of inception of the Commission) and August 31, 2020. According to the Commission, of these 1,618 persons, 1,008 were traced – 53 dead bodies, 246 in prisons, 37 in internment centre and 672 returned home. The Commission ‘deleted’ cases of another 419 missing persons, claiming that these were “closed due to not being cases of enforced disappearances, incomplete address, withdrawal by complainants, non-prosecution. etc.” Thus, as per the commission, a total of 1,427 cases were ‘disposed of’, leaving another 191 cases under investigation.
In the most recent incident, on January 28, 2021, Sanaullah Aman, a Sindhi activist working against enforced disappearances, was arrested from Lahore (Punjab) and subsequently shifted to an undisclosed location. According to the Voice for Missing Persons of Sindh (VMPS), Sanaullah Aman has been ‘forcibly disappeared’ by state agencies.
Earlier, on January 20, 2021, Sagar Mukesh, a Sindhi nationalist and human rights activist, was abducted by unidentified persons in Karachi. Sagar Mukesh’s fellow activist have blamed the SFs for Sagar’s enforced disappearance.
To counter state atrocities, Sindhi and Baloch nationalist groups have decided to join hands. On July 25, 2020, the Baloch Raji Ajoi Sangar (BRAS) – a conglomerate of four Baloch ethno-nationalist militant groups – announced an operational alliance with SRA. According to BRAS’ communiqué, the decision to create an operational alliance between BRAS and SRA followed the meeting of senior ‘commanders’ of BLA (Bashirzeb Baloch faction), Baloch Republican Army (Gulzar Imam faction), BLF, BRG and SRA, at an undisclosed location. The common objective of creating this united front against Pakistan was declared to be to ‘liberate’ Balochistan and Sindh. Moreover, opposition to the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and ethno-nationalist grievances were other factors which have contributed to the alliance. The new alliance announced that it would connect with other ethno-nationalist militant groups to build a strong and vast united front against the Pakistani state.
The rising Sindhi nationalist movement and the simultaneous increase in violence will further undermine security in Sindh.
Odisha: Continuing attrition Deepak Kumar Nayak Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On January 30, 2021, Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres killed two civilians in the Belghar area of Kandhamal District. In a handwritten note found near the bodies of the slain villagers, the Maoists of the ‘Bansadhara-Ghumusar-Nagabali (BGN) Division’ claimed that the two were among those who had tipped off the Security Forces (SFs) about the presence of rebels in the Belghar area, which had resulted in the September 9, 2020, encounter in which five Maoists were killed. The Maoists warned other ‘informers’ to surrender before their ‘Jan Adalat’ (People’s/ Kangaroo Court organized by the Maoists) within 15 days or else, they would be sentenced to death. They also warned that the State Government, Director General of Police (DGP) Abhay, and Inspector General of Police (IGP), Intelligence, R.K. Sharma. would be held responsible for the loss of lives.
On January 31, 2021, a CPI-Maoist cadre was killed in an exchange of fire with SFs in the Nunkhari Forest under Mathili Police Station limits in Malkangiri District.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), these three Left Wing Extremism (LWE) violence-linked fatalities were recorded in the state in the opening month of the current year.
In comparison, in January 2020, the state accounted for two such fatalities (one civilian and one Maoist).
Through 2020, there were a total of 23 fatalities (four civilians, two SF personnel and 17 Maoists) as compared to 19 fatalities (10 civilians, one trooper and eight Maoists) through 2019.
At least 17 Maoists were killed in eight encounters with SFs in 2020. Two SF personnel were killed in these encounters (both in one incident). A kill ratio of 1:8.5 in favour of SFs was thus established in 2020, as against 1:8 (one trooper, eight Maoists) in 2019, though there was a twofold increase in Maoist fatalities. Though the overall SF:Maoist kill ratio since March 6, 2000, now stands at 1:1.37, it was in favor of the Maoists till 2014, at 1.08:1.
On January 24, 2021, a woman cadre of the CPI-Maoist, identified as Lachchi Khara aka Lachhi aka Gita, surrendered before SFs in Malkangiri District. Lachhi as an active member of the 'Andhra Odisha Border Special Zonal Committee (AOBSZC)'. While this is the lone incident of Maoist surrender in the State in the current year, thus far (data till January 31, 2021), a total of 22 Maoists surrendered in through 2020. There were 10 such surrenders in 2019. Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on Left Wing Extremism (LWE), at least 4,770 Maoists have surrendered. SFs also arrested three Maoists in 2020, in addition to 22 in 2019. Since March 6, 2000, at least 1,574 Maoists have been arrested in Odisha.
Clearly, the SFs have made significant gains on the ground over the past years, resulting in a significantly improved security environment for civilians in the State.
There were four civilian fatalities in 2020 as compared to 10 in 2019. Civilian fatalities in 2020 were the second lowest recorded in the State since March 2000. The lowest of three fatalities was recorded in 2006. A high of 62 fatalities was recorded in 2010.
Nevertheless, the revenge killings of January 30, 2021, and the threat issued is worrisome.
Meanwhile, other parameters of violence also suggest a waning of Maoist influence and impact in the State. A total of 71 LWE-related incidents were registered in 2020, down from 73 in 2019, maintaining the trend of declining numbers established since 2013. No major incident (involving three or more killings) targeting the civilians or SFs was reported in 2020 as in 2019. The last such incident was reported on April 23, 2018, when three civilians were killed in a landmine blast near Mundibedha village under the Raighar Police Station limits of Nabarangpur District.
The number of Districts where fatalities were recorded also declined in 2020. Out of a total of 30 Districts in Odisha, fatalities were recorded in just three in 2020 – Kandhamal (nine), Kalahandi (seven) and Malkangiri (seven). In 2019, fatalities were reported from six Districts – Koraput (five), Kandhamal (four), Malkangiri (four), Kalahandi (three), Nabarangpur (two) and Balangir (one).
On January 20, 2021, praising the Odisha Police for successfully tackling the LWE menace in the State, the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), General Bipin Rawat, thus observed,
Significantly, ever since the Maoists faced a major blow in the twin encounters in the Bejingi Forest area between Ramgarh and Panasput in Malkangiri District on October 24 and 27, 2016, resulting in the death of 28 and two Maoist cadres, respectively, the Maoists area of influence shrunk dramatically in the ‘Andhra-Odisha Border (AOB)’ region, which had served as a long-time sanctuary and stronghold for the rebels. The five Districts of southern Odisha (Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Gajapati and Ganjam), along with four north coastal Districts of Andhra Pradesh (East Godavari, Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram and Srikakulam) fell under the erstwhile Maoist-dominated AOB region.
Shefeen Ahamed, Deputy Inspector General of Police for the South West Range, Odisha, which controls Districts of the State bordering Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh, thus acknowledged,
Indeed, Republic Day 2021 (January 26) was celebrated in two Panchayats (village level local self-Government institutions) in Swabhiman Anchal in Malkangiri District after a hiatus of over five decades. Malkangiri Superintendent of Police (SP), Rishikesh Dnyandeo Khilari, stated,
He added that, on October 31, 2020, the Border Security Force (BSF) and the Odisha Police set up a Company Operating Base (COB) at Gurasethu, earlier dubbed the CPI-Maoist's "ideological headquarters" in Swabhiman Anchal, signaling the fading out of Maoist influence.
Construction work on the Balimela Dam began in 1962-63 in what was then the undivided Koraput District, and the dam was completed in 1977, creating the 'Cut-off area'.
In another encouraging development, according to a December 9, 2020, report, the residents of Khajuriguda village in Chitrakonda Tehsil (revenue unit) in Malkangiri District, armed with their traditional bows and arrows, mustered the courage to defend their village against the Maoists by guarding the entrances to their village 24X7 to prevent any rebel from sneaking in under the cover of darkness. Unnamed residents of the village, thus disclosed,
Further, the Maoists have fizzled out in the 'KKBN division' - covering the Kandhamal, Kalahandi, Boudh, and Nayagarh Districts of the State, which were once considered Maoist strongholds.
On July, 2020, State Director General of Police (DGP), Abhay disclosed,
Nevertheless, problems remain.
On September 21, 2020, G. Kishan Reddy, the Minister of State in the Ministry of Home Affairs, stated that 15 Districts (Angul, Bargarh, Bolangir, Boudh, Deogarh, Kalahandi, Kandhamal, Koraput, Malkangiri, Nabarangpur, Nayagarh, Nuapada, Rayagada, Sambalpur, and Sundargarh) out of the State's 30 Districts, still find place among the 90 Districts in 11 States listed as LWE-affected by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) and covered under the Security Related Expenditure (SRE) /LWE scheme for the purpose of reimbursement of expenditure incurred on counter-LWE operations. At peak in 2010, as many as 23 Districts (Angul, Bargarh, Bhadrak, Bolangir, Cuttack, Deogarh, Dhenkanal, Gajapati, Ganjam, Jajpur, Jagatsinghpur, Kalahandi, Kandhamal, Keonjhar, Khurda, Koraput, Malkangiri, Mayurbhanj, Nabarangpur, Nuapada, Rayagada, Sambalpur, Sundargarh) in the State were affected by Maoist activities.
Security measures need to be further strengthened to meet the residual challenge, as the Maoists have previously demonstrated the capacity to make a comeback in different regions from time to time.
Regrettably, however, according to the latest Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data, as on January 1, 2020, the Odisha Police continued to lag in terms of capacities. Odisha had 129.31 Police personnel per 100,000 population, significantly below the inadequate national average of 155.78. More worryingly, the Police/Area Ratio (number of policemen per 100 square kilometres) was just 37.54, as against the national average of 63.63. Both the State and national averages on the Police/Area ratio were well below the sanctioned strength, at 42.49 and 79.80, respectively. Worryingly, the sanctioned strength for the States’ Police was 66,161, while just 58,455 personnel were in position, creating a deficit of 11.64 per cent. In addition, the sanctioned strength of the apex Indian Police Service (IPS) Officers in the State was 195, but just 123 officers were in position, a deficit of 36.92 per cent that considerably weakens the executive supervision of the Force.
Reports indicate that 92 companies of Central Armed Police Forces (48 of BSF and 44 of CRPF) are deployed in Odisha to combat the Maoist rebels. These Central Forces work in coordination with the State Police.
The Maoists are certainly on the backfoot and gradually failing in their erstwhile areas of influence in the State due to coordinated action by SFs. However, the Governments – both the Central and State – urgently need to address critical security deficits and enhance the necessary administrative, developmental and security outreach to consolidate state outreach and effectiveness in the remaining LWE-affected regions of Odisha.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia January 25-31, 2021
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
NS
Total
AFGHANISTAN
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
Odisha
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
PAKISTAN (Total)
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