South Asia Terrorism Portal
Arunachal Pradesh: Rankling Wounds Giriraj Bhattacharjee Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On May 31,2019, an Army trooper, Amit Chaturvedi, was killed in an encounter with suspected United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I) militants at an unspecified location in Arunachal Pradesh.
On May 21, 2019, suspected Naga militants killed 11 people including the National People’s Party (NPP) Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA), Tirong Aboh and his son at the 12th milestone on the Khonsa-Deomali Road in the Tirap District of Arunachal. The fatalities included two Personal Security Officers (PSO’s). No organisation has yet claimed responsibility for the attack, nor is the motive behind the attack is known. According to reports, the State Government has decided to hand over the investigation to the National Investigation Agency (NIA).
According to partial data collected by South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), a total of 14 fatalities (11 civilians and three Security Force (SF) personnel have been recorded in the State in 2019 (data till June 14), demonstrating a rise in the numbers as compared to the corresponding period in 2018, when seven fatalities (one civilian one SF and five militants) were recorded. In total, 14 fatalities (one civilian, two SF personnel and 11 militants) were recorded in 2018.
The total civilian fatalities in 2019 (data till June 16) is the highest since 2001, when 40 civilians were killed through the entire year. Apart from the May 21, 2019 ambush in which nine civilians were killed, another two civilian fatalities were recorded.
On March 30, 2019, a former District Council member, identified as Seliam Wangsa, who was campaigning for Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate Honchun Ngandam, was killed by suspected NSCN (faction not known) militants in Nginu village in the Longding District. Seliam Wangsa was a surrendered Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM) militant.
On March 29, 2019, a suspected militant of the NSCN-IM shot dead, Jaley Anna, the supporter of the NPP candidate, Tirong Aboh contesting from the Khonsa West Assembly Seat, at Kheti village in Tirap District.
No militant fatality has been recorded in the State so far. The last incident of militant fatality was recorded on November 18, 2018, when SFs, in three separate encounters, killed three NSCN (faction not known) militants near the Borduria and Laptang villages in Tirap District.
Further, insurgency linked fatality incidents were recorded in two Districts (Tirap and Longding) out of the 25 in the State. During the corresponding period of 2018, incidents of insurgency-related fatalities were recorded in four Districts (Tirap, Changlang, Longding and Namsai).
The spillover of militancy from the neighbouring States of Assam and Nagaland is especially prominent in the Districts of Longding, Changlang and Tirap, which also saddle the Indo-Myanmar border. Between January 1, 2000, and June 16, 2019, these three Districts have accounted for 116 fatalities: Tirap 81 (13 civilians, 10 SF personnel and 58 militants); Changlang, 20 (three civilians, three SF personnel and 14 militants); and Longding 15 (one civilian, one SF trooper and 13 militants). Tirap, Longding and Changlang are also claimed by the NSCN-IM as part of Nagalim (‘Greater Nagaland’). Neighbouring Myanmar’s Sagiang region is exploited by Indian Insurgent Groups (IIGs) as their base to carry out ambushes into Indian territory.
The continued militant activity has led to the routine extension of the Armed Forces Special Forces Act (AFSPA) in parts of the State. On March 31, 2019, Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) decided to continue AFSPA in the three District of Tirap, Changlang and Longding, as well as areas falling under the jurisdiction of four Police Stations, declared as “Disturbed areas” for another six months (till September 30). The four Police Stations that will continue to be classified as “disturbed areas” are Namsai and Mahadevpur in Namsai District; Roing in Lower Dibang Valley District, and Sunpura Police Station in Lohit District. Significantly, the notification excludes another four Police Stations, Balemu and Balukpong in West Kameng District, Seijosa in East Kameng District and Balijan in Papumpare District.
There are also reports of imposition of ‘taxes’ by militants in the Tirap, Longding and Changlang Districts. However, on June 6, 2019, when a journalist asked about reports of NSCN collecting a percentage of Government employees’ salaries as ‘tax’ from these Districts, newly inducted State Home Minister Bamang Felix, dismissed her question, declaring, “we have not received any [report] till now that salaries are going to NSCN…”.
The illegal drug trade also benefits the militant groups operating in Arunachal Pradesh. According to a May 8, 2019 report, a local Police official admitted, on conditions of anonymity, that “There is lots of military intelligence about the chain of finance leading to the militants, especially in Tirap and Changlang, but no operation (against them) is possible yet.” Arunachal Pradesh is situated near the ‘Golden Triangle’, comprising border areas of Laos, Thailand and Myanmar, known for opium and heroin production and trade.
Additionally, according to SATP (Data till June 16), two Incidents of abduction and one incident of extortion were recorded in 2019 (a majority of such incidents go unreported, as victim families seek a ‘private’ settlement with abductors). One incident of abduction was reported in the State during the corresponding period of 2018. In the latest incident on April 17, 2019, two workers of NPP were allegedly abducted by NSCN-Khaplang (NSCN-K) militants in Longding District. The abductees were identified as Apong Wangsu and Yatun Wangsa. They were later released on the same day. Arunachal Pradesh Police records show that there were 128 abductions and 64 extortion cases reported in 2018. This data does not maintain a distinction between insurgency-linked and other cases.
SFs continue to act against militants and have arrested 31 in 2019 (Data till June 16): 10 of the Arunachal Pradesh Deprived People’s Front (APPDPF); nine of NSCN-Reformation (NSCN-R); four of ULFA-I; two each from Kanglei Yowel Kanna Lup (KYKL), NSCN-IM and NSCN-Khaplang (NSCN-K); and one each of the Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP) and National Democratic Front of Bodoland-Saoraigwra (NDFB-S). In the latest incident of arrest on May 5, 2019, SFs arrested a NSCN-K militant, ‘sergeant major’ Kijen Rangwang, from Chinghan village in Tirap District. One militant has also surrendered in 2019.
Further, news reports suggest that, following operations by Tatmadaw (the Myanmar Army), the IIGs based in Myanmar have now moved to Pangmi and Konyak Naga dominated regions of Myanmar, adjoining Changlang District in Arunachal Pradesh and Mon District in Nagaland. In a positive development, Tatmadaw cracked down on the IIGs operating from Myanmar soil starting February 17, 2019. Subsequently, a second phase (May 16-June 8) of the operations was launched codenamed Operation Sunrise 2. Latest reports suggest that seven to eight camps have been destroyed and around an estimated 70 to 80 IIGs were arrested in this phase. The Indian Army’s Special Forces are also reportedly engaging militants that are trying to infiltrate from Myanmar into India, fleeing the assault.
Besides militancy, there are other flashpoints in the State, especially related to the strained inter-tribal relations and the presence of refugees.
The divide in tribal society came to fore when three people were killed and more than 35 (including at least 24 Police personnel) were injured during three days of protests (February 22 -24, 2019), after a Joint High Power Committee (JHPC), constituted on May 1, 2018, submitted a recommendation to the State Government for Permanent Resident Certificates (PRC) to be provided to six non-Arunachal Pradesh Scheduled Tribe (Non-APSTs). The violent opposition forced the Government to back down. The six communities which were to be given PRC were the Deori, Sonowal Kachari, Moran, Adivasi, Gorkha and Mishing, concentrated in the Namsai and Changlang Districts. The APSTs believe that giving the PRC to non-tribal communities will lead to land alienation and cultural marginalization of the APSTs.
The presence of more than 54,000 Chakma and Hajong refugees (forced to migrate to India from the East Pakistan in the 1960s), is another source of tension. These people are settled in Arunachal Pradesh [the then North East Frontier Agency (NEFA)]. The move to grant them citizenship is strongly opposed, particularly by the influential students’ body, All Arunachal Pradesh Students’ Union (AAPSU), which rigidly maintains the stand that granting Citizenship to the refugees is ‘unacceptable’. Further, with Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the dominant party of ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) Government at the Centre, having won the recent elections with even a bigger mandate, there is a greater possibility of the BJP bringing the proposed Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB) back on its agenda. CAB will help six minority communities, Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains, Parsis, and Christians, from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan, who have migrated to India without valid documents, to get Indian citizenship after six years of stay in the country.
Earlier, local organizations, mainly led by AAPSU, had vehemently opposed the passing of the now lapsed CAB (2016) in the Lok Sabha (Lower House of Parliament) that would have enabled Chakmas and Hajongs to apply for citizenship. AAPSU president Hawa Bagang stated on January 7, 2019, “If the Bill is passed, we will be left with no option but to take up arms to protect our indigenous population.” CAB was passed in the Lok Sabha January 8, 2019, provoking protests across the Northeast. The Bill was later allowed to lapse by not introducing it in the Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Parliament), and General Elections were announced, heralding the dissolution of the Lok Sabha. Any move by the ruling party to bring back the CAB will certainly ignite resentment in the State and the wider Northeast.
Meanwhile, the incumbent Chief Minister Prema Khandu led the BJP to a massive victory in the 2019 Assembly Election, held simultaneously with the Parliamentary Elections. BJP secured 41 seats (with 50.86 per cent of the votes); the Janata Dal (United) seven (9.88 per cent of votes); the National People’s Party (NPP) five (14.56 per cent); the Indian National Congress (INC) four (16.85 per cent); the People’s Party of Arunachal (PPA), one (1.73 per cent of votes). The remaining two seats were won by independent candidates.
Containing the residual threat in this strategically important and natural resource-rich State is hugely important. There is a need for greater cooperation between the Police forces of the neighbouring States, especially in the Districts along interstate boundaries and along the Indo-Myanmar border. Further, close cooperation with the Myanmar Government, especially on security, can further neutralise the insurgency. Issues such as PRC and CAB need to be delicately managed, as they have the potential to destabilize the State and to incite violence as well.
The Veil of Oppression Sanchita Bhattacharya Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
On May 11, 2019, Mena Mangal, a former journalist and a cultural advisor to the Wolesi Jirga, the Lower House of Parliament, was killed in the Kart-e-Naw area of Kabul. Mangal had worked as a news presenter for three local TV networks in Kabul, including LEMAR TV, Shamshad News, and Ariana TV.
Earlier on May 8, 2019, the Taliban, launched an attack on the head office of US-funded aid group Counterpart International in the Shahr-e-Naw area of Kabul city, citing the “intermixing” of women and men working at the site and its promotion of “western activities”. At least nine people were killed (including five members of the Afghan Security Forces) and 20 were wounded in a siege that lasted more than seven hours. An Afghan woman who has worked at Counterpart for more than three years, speaking on condition of anonymity, stated, “The Taliban want to kill women who work with men. If I die, there will be no one to feed my parents and siblings.”
Mangal’s killing is just the latest in a number of slayings of Afghan women over the past 18 years, since the toppling of Taliban regime. Most Afghan men in this traditionally conservative society still hold the view that women are inferior and have no right to freedom. Some of the women have been killed in so-called ‘honour’ killings carried out by their own families; others have been killed by terrorist groups that object to women in public roles and who speak about women's rights.
On April 18, 2019, a woman, along with her husband, was killed by the Taliban in the Ozan Saqaal area of Gosfandi District in Sar-e-Pul Province. Military sources stated that that the circumstances surrounding the killing of the couple have not been ascertained.
On October 24, 2018, the Taliban killed a woman and her child for running away from home in the Shahrak District of Ghor Province.
On March 19, 2018, a woman was beheaded by Taliban terrorists in the Baharak District of Badakhshan Province. The motive behind the killing was not known.
According to the latest UNAMA (United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan) report on women’s rights, jointly prepared with the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), titled, “Injustice and Impunity: Mediation of Criminal Offences of Violence against Women”, published in May, 2018, 237 cases of violence against women were reported in 22 Afghan provinces monitored by UNAMA between August 2015 and December 2017, and another 280 cases of murder and honour killings were also documented by the UN mission. This is the sixth UNAMA report on violence against women since 2009, when the UN mission in Afghanistan began monitoring the implementation of the law on the Elimination of Violence Against Women (EVAW).
Further, as reported in December 2018, Afghanistan ranked second among the worst places in the world to be a woman. The report quoted a project of the Thomson Reuters Foundation, which conducted a poll on the world’s worst places to be a woman. According to the poll, Afghanistan is ranked second, with India at rank 1, Syria at 3, Somalia at 4 and Saudi Arabia at 5. Women in today’s Afghanistan face a host of daily threats in the form of insurgency violence, honour killing, stoning to death, beatings, rape, giving away of girls in marriage to resolve disputes, enforced prostitution, burning or using chemical substances to deface, and forced immolation or suicide, mostly in the name of religion and tribal customs.
Three decades of war and devastation has ruined the social fabric of the entire nation. The deep-rooted social conditioning of women has forced them to stay away from the political, social and economic mainstream of the country for a considerable period of time. Even after the ouster of the Taliban, most women still live in fear and suffer under a veil of silence, as violence is meted out by family members and conservative groups.
The factors contributing to this violence include the failure to deal decisively with perpetrators; a culture of impunity; perceptions that violence against women is ‘normal’; illiteracy and low levels of public awareness; traditional patterns of marriage; corruption and abuse of state positions; women’s limited access to justice; the lack of security; and weakness of state authority in the districts and provinces.
Nevertheless, there have been some visible gains for women. The maternal mortality rate in Afghanistan reduced from 1,340 deaths per 100,000 live births in 1990 to 396 in 2015, (according to World Bank data). Also, in contrast to the strict Taliban years, when women were banned from work, made to wear a full-length burqa that covered their face and not allowed out without a male relative, a March, 2019 report, states that women in Afghanistan now constitute 27 per cent each in Parliament and in the civil service.
Talks between the Taliban and the US are a serious source of concern for Women’s rights activists, with many worried that a deal between the two sides could erode the hard-won freedoms and rights of Afghan women and girls in exchange for peace. Kabul-based women’s rights activist Maqadasa Atalwali observed, “We need to keep up the fight and be prepared for what may come to Afghanistan in the near future.”
The Taliban, who have disruptive influence in nearly half of Afghanistan, are seeking to impose their harsh interpretation of Islam in areas they control. Unsurprisingly, the US military has stopped disclosing estimates of how much of Afghanistan is controlled by the Taliban (as well as fatalities in various categories, including civilians).The decision to end these assessments, which have been produced in various forms since 2010, was published in the latest quarterly report by the American Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR). According to the SIGAR, Quarterly Report, published on April 30, 2019:
The plight of women (who constitute 48.52 per cent of the total population of 37,209,007) in Afghanistan has been pulled into focus in recent months, as many in the war-torn country worry that the limited rights available to women will be lost if the United States makes a deal with the Taliban. US negotiations with the Taliban are dangerous for the already deteriorating situation, particularly for women in the country. Since the commencement of peace talks between the US and the Taliban, there has been extremely limited participation and involvement of women, and the future of women in Afghanistan is falling further into darkness.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia June 10-16, 2019
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
Total
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
Jharkhand
INDIA (Total)
Breakthroughs in peace will take time, states President Ashraf Ghani: President Ashraf Ghani, at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan on June 14 said that breakthroughs in the Afghan peace process will take time without a regional consensus and addressing Taliban's independencies with their supporters. "We consider the US commitment to a political solution to be credible and are coordinating to build the necessary international consensus on peace. But without a regional consensus on peace and addressing Taliban's interdependencies with their supporters, breakthroughs will take time," Ghani said. Tolo News, June 15, 2019.
US working on post-Peace plan for Afghanistan, states Alice Wells: The United States (US) State Department Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs Principal Deputy Assistant, Alice Wells, says that the US and Afghanistan's donor countries are working on a post-peace plan for the country. Wells appeared before the US Congress' Committee on Foreign Affairs on June 13 where she said the US Special Envoy for Afghan peace Zalmay Khalilzad has made significant progress in the peace talks with the Taliban. Tolo News, June 14, 2019.
Islamic State in Afghanistan is a "very worrisome" threat to the US, says General Frank McKenzie:The head of United States (US) Central Command Marine General Frank McKenzie said on June 12 that the Islamic State group in Afghanistan is a "very worrisome" threat to the US, and US counterterrorism efforts have yet to shrink its extremist ambitions. "ISIS (Daesh) in Afghanistan certainly has aspirations to attack the United States," McKenzie said. "It is our clear judgment that as long as we maintain pressure on them it will be hard for them to do that." Tolo News, June 14, 2019.
Military pressure on Taliban necessary for peace, says Deputy Commander Lt. Gen. Salvatore Camporeale: Resolute Support (RS) mission Deputy Commander Lieutenant General Salvatore Camporeale from North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Afghanistan has said that increasing military and political pressure on the Taliban will help in creating conditions for peace in the country. Addressing a ceremony in Herat on June 10, Salvatore Camporeale said that a political settlement is the only possible way to bring peace in Afghanistan. Tolo News, June 12, 2019.
President's rule extended for six months in Jammu and Kashmir: The Union Cabinet, on June 12, approved the extension of President's rule in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) for six more months beginning July 3, Union Minister Prakash Javadekar said. A meeting of the Union Cabinet, chaired by Prime Minister (PM), Narendra Modi, decided that Central rule, which has been continuing in J&K since June 20, 2018, will remain for six months. "Yes, it has been decided," Javadekar told reporters when asked whether the Cabinet gave its nod to extend President's rule in Jammu and Kashmir. Daily Excelsior, June 8, 2019.
Jammu and Kashmir Governor asks militants to shun violence, hold talks: Governor Satya Pal Malik, on June 12, asked the militants to give up arms for holding talks within the Constitution as they cannot make India bow through violence. Speaking to reporters at SKICC during a press Conference Malik asked the militants that they can get whatever they want within Indian constitution. "Whatever you can get is through talks and dialogue. You have your own Constitution; you have a separate flag. Whatever more you want, you will get it through democratic process and within the ambit of the Indian constitution," he said. Daily Excelsior, June 14, 2019.
Pakistan's ISI aiding pro-Khalistan group Babbar Khalsa International to expand presence in Britain: An intelligence report has suggested that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is helping pro-Khalistan militant group Babbar Khalsa International (BKI) is working to strengthen its network across Britain. The report says that Pakistan's ISI is funding the BKI and helping it expand in Britain and other parts of the world. Pakistan's ISI aiding pro-Khalistan group Babbar Khalsa International to expand presence in Britain. Zee News, June 13, 2019.
NCP MPs divided along CPN-UML and CPN-Maoist Center lines on disputed bills and key issues: A year after unification between the two communist allies - the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) and the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist Center) - and formation of the Nepal Communist Party (NCP), Members of Parliament (MPs) of the ruling NCP are sharply divided along CPN-UML and CPN-Maoist Center lines over disputed bills and key issues of national importance. During deliberations in the full House and at Committee meetings, NCP lawmakers with CPN-UML background have supported the bills tabled by the Government in Parliament while ruling party lawmakers from a CPN-Maoist Center background have opposed the bills. My Republica, June 13, 2019.
Government grants PKR 100 crore in budget for Kartarpur corridor: Prime Minister Imran Khan's Government on June 12 earmarked PKR 100 crore in the federal budget 2019-20 for the development of the Kartarpur corridor. The corridor will connect Darbar Sahib in Kartarpur of Narowal District with Dera Baba Nanak shrine in India's Gurdaspur District and facilitate visa-free movement of Indian Sikh pilgrims, who will have to just obtain a permit to visit Kartarpur Sahib, which was established in 1522 by Guru Nanak Dev. Minster of State for Revenue Hammad Azhar presented in Parliament the austerity driven budget for fiscal year 2019-20, which starts from July 1. Times of India, June 12, 2019.
Pakistan likely to stay in FATF grey list: The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has given Pakistan an "all-clear" on only two out of the 27 action plans it has to complete to get out of the grey list - the warning given to a country when it fails to curb terror funding and money laundering. In the run-up to the FATF plenary in Orlando, Florida from June 16-21, diplomatic sources have said Pakistan will, at the very least, remain in the grey list which it went back into in 2018. Times of India, June 12, 2019.
Measures suggested by the Malalgoda committee which was investigating the April 21 incidents will be taken as soon as it is received, said Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe: Ranil Wickremesinghe on June 11 said that the Malalgoda committee which was investigating the April 21 incidents has now handed over its report to the President and measures recommended in the report will be taken as soon as it is received. The Wickremesinghe further said that they made two requests to the Parliamentary Select Committee. Wickremesinghe said, "The first is to examine the charges against Rishad Bathiudeen and make a quick decision since the JVP's no-confidence motion against government is to be debated in July, it was important to make a decision on the former minister," he explained. Colombo Page, June 12, 2019.
We are in majority globally and cannot be subjugated, says former Eastern Province Governor Dr. M.L.A.M. Hizbullah:Former Eastern Province Governor Dr. M.L.A.M. Hizbullah on June 8 said that the Muslims are a minority only in this country, but a majority globally and nobody should think that they could subjugate us. Hizbullah said, "Muslims should live with their heads up. I wish to make it clear that only in this country that we are minorities, but in this whole world, we are in a majority. Till we find a solution to our problems, we should be united. At the time of the elections, we must reveal our stance." Daily Mirror, June 12, 2019.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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