South Asia Terrorism Portal

SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
[SAIR]

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.

Battle for Supremacy
Ajit Kumar Singh
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management

On July 23, 2018, over a dozen Islamic State (IS, also Daesh) and Afghan Taliban terrorists were killed internecine clashes in Kunar Province. According to reports, the clashes started from the Chapa Dara District and later spread to different parts of the Kunar Province.

On July 11, 2018, at least 26 terrorists were killed during clashes between Taliban and Daesh fighters in the Darzab District of Jawzjan Province. The 209^th Shaheen Corps of the Afghan Military in the North disclosed that the clashes erupted in Darzab District after the Taliban launched a coordinated attack. According to a statement released by Shaheen Corps, at least 16 IS and 10 Taliban terrorists, including a ‘commander’, were killed during the clashes. The statement further added that 14 IS militants sustained injuries and at least nine others were ‘detained’ by the Taliban. Similarly, at least 11 Taliban militants sustained injuries while two were ‘detained’ by Daesh. According to the Shaheen Corps, the Taliban was attempting to clear Darzab District of the Daesh presence.

On June 30, 2018, six Daesh terrorists and one of the Taliban were killed in a clash in the Chapadara District of Kunar Province.

Partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), indicates that there were at least 11 such internecine clashes reported since the beginning of 2018, in which at least 103 terrorists have been killed (data till August 5, 2018). This included 24 from Daesh and 14 from Taliban. The group identity of the remaining 105 could not be ascertained.

Indeed, The National in a news report on July 15, 2018, quoted a Daesh source as stating, “Yes the war between the Afghan Taliban and Daesh branch in Khorasan has escalated. More attacks and more casualties…”

Daesh started making inroads into Afghanistan in 2014, in regions where the Taliban was once in power and subsequently continued to have significant presence and control over territory. According to June 2015 reports, fighters loyal to Daesh had seized sizeable territories. Reports citing witnesses who had fled Nangarhar Province due to fierce clashes between forces loyal to IS and those loyal to the Afghan Taliban, had claimed that Daesh had pushed the Taliban out from areas previously under its control. Haji Abdul Jan, a tribal elder from Achin District (Nangarhar Province) had stated,

They (Daesh loyalists) came in on many white pickup trucks mounted with big machine guns and fought the Taliban. The Taliban could not resist and fled… Unlike the Taliban, they (IS) don't force villagers to feed and house them. Instead, they have lots of cash in their pockets and spend it on food and luring young villagers to join them. Some villagers welcomed the new arrivals.

Further corroboration had come from Malek Islam, the District Chief of Achin, who noted that Daesh fighters were "almost everywhere in the District" but were targeting the Taliban only and “not us”.

By late June 2015, Daesh had consolidated its position in eight of Nangarhar’s 22 Districts and likely comprised a fighting force of 3,750 to 4,000 fighters. On May 30, 2016, the Afghanistan National Security Council (NSC) chaired by President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani, approved in principle the strategy to fight Daesh.

Nevertheless, Daesh started extending its influence and operations in several other areas of Afghanistan, including the Jawzjan and Kunar Provinces, retaining Nangarhar as its base. It gained further strength in 2016. Significantly, on March 17, 2017, Esa Khan Zawak, the District Governor of Achin District, observed that “Daesh was still firmly entrenched in the area where they had military bases, training centers, prisons and even a court. We are in offensive status and do not feel serious threats, but almost 80 per cent of the fighters are foreigners.” Earlier, on February 14, 2017, Nazifullah Salarzai, Deputy Permanent Representative of Afghanistan at the United Nations, speaking during a meeting of the United Nations Security Council noted, “The ongoing cycle of violence in Afghanistan is not, by any means, a homegrown phenomenon. Its roots lie elsewhere, outside Afghanistan,” and added that the roots of violence emanated from a strategic design crafted “from within our region to advance an ill-fated political agenda, which serves no one, defies international law and constitutes a blatant violation of the very spirit and tenets of the UN Charter, including relevant counterterrorism resolutions of the General Assembly and Security Council.”

Not surprisingly, there was an escalation in the turf war during this period. Daesh, however, suffered major losses in the beginning of 2017. On April 13, 2017, a 21,600-pound Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB), also commonly known as the Mother of All Bombs, dropped by U.S Forces killed at least 94 terrorists affiliated with the Daesh in a Daesh base in the Achin District of Nangarhar Province. Three tunnels used by Daesh fighters and as reservoirs of weapons and other equipment were destroyed in the attack. Later, the Nangahar Provincial Government disclosed that at least four key leaders of the group identified as Hamza Abu Bakar, Mohammad Ibrani, Hamid Kunari, and Walkin, were among those killed.

Despite these major losses, the war for supremacy goes on uninterrupted, though the Taliban appears to have an upper hand. Government officials stated, on August 1, 2018, that more than 150 Daesh fighters surrendered to Afghan Security Forces in Jawzjan Province after they were defeated and driven out by the Taliban. Mohammad Reza Ghafouri, a spokesman for the provincial Governor, observed, “The worries of neighbouring countries, and the presence of Daesh groups on their borders, have now been removed.” The Taliban also claimed, “The evil phenomenon of Daesh has completely been eliminated and people have been freed from its tortures in Jawzjan Province of Afghanistan.”

Daesh has also suffered recent losses in Kunar Province. According to a July 15, 2018, report, a Taliban source confirmed that they had captured parts of Kunar and Daesh had seen “some setbacks”. However, the Taliban emphasized, “They are not able to get firm control over the recaptured areas because soon they will be repelled back by the fighters of Islamic State. As the Islamic State prepares to retaliate, an unnamed Daesh source told the media,

The reason behind the escalation of recent attacks from both sides is due to Islamic State's quick expansion and control of more Taliban areas in the region. Islamic State will launch more attacks on the Taliban strongholds to capture more and more areas in order to expand the Islamic State in Khurasan.

The fratricidal war between Daesh and the Taliban could well be used to advantage by state Forces in Afghanistan, but the misery inflicted on the civilian population is unlikely to diminish, as the turf war between these two Islamist terrorist factions escalates. 

PAKISTAN

       

Tribal Elders: The Curse of War  
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On July 31, 2018, two tribal elders, Malik Salam Khan and Malik Niaz Khan, were shot dead in an incident of targeted killing in Miramshah town, North Waziristan District, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) [the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) merged with KP on May 31, 2018]. Family sources said that Malik Salam Khan and Malik Niaz Khan were going from Tappi village to Miramshah when unidentified assailants targeted their vehicle.

On February 15, 2018, two tribal elders, Malik Shah Khan and Malik Askar Shah, were killed and two others were injured in a landmine blast in the Tor Simat area of Orakzai Agency in (then) FATA. Malik Shah Khan and Malik Askar Shah were travelling with two other tribal elders to Hangu (KP) when their vehicle hit a roadside landmine in the Tor Simat area.

On February 8, 2018, a tribal elder, Malik Farooq Khan, was killed in a remote-controlled explosion in the Hialal Khail area of Bajaur Agency in FATA. Malik Farooq Khan was going to a nearby market in the mountainous Hialal Khail area of Charmang Valley when an explosive device placed along the road went off.

There has been a spike in such incidents and resultant fatalities in the current year (2018) after a noticeable decline observed in 2016 and 2017, in comparison to previous years. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), during the first seven months and three days of the current year (2018), there have been three such incidents (targeting tribal leaders) resulting in the death of five tribal leaders across Pakistan’s tribal areas. During the corresponding period of 2017, one tribal elder had died in one incident; and in the remaining period of 2017, there was one more incident resulting in one death. Through 2016, there were two such deaths in two incidents. The tribal areas recorded 11 such incidents, resulting in 14 killings through 2015.  

Attacks on Tribal Elders in Pakistan: 2005-2018

Source: SATP, *Data till August 5, 2018

SATP’s partial data, based on erratic reporting in the Pakistani media, confirms the killing of at least 163 tribal elders since 2005 in 110 incidents. The first such incident in the SATP record took place on May 29, 2005, when former Federal Minister and Senator, Malik Faridullah Khan Wazir, was assassinated along with two other tribal elders reportedly by four al Qaeda-affiliated terrorists in the Jandola area of South Waziristan Agency in FATA.

SAIR noted earlier that, since the beginning of the US-led operation in Afghanistan in 2001 and the consequent influx of Afghan Taliban into Pakistan’s tribal areas, primarily FATA, tribal elders became frequent victims of a sustained campaign of annihilation that has virtually destroyed the structure of traditional tribal power in these regions. In the compound of the FATA Secretariat, there stands a lonely cenotaph with, “Elders/Maliks of Federally Administered Tribal Areas Martyred in Militancy” inscribed on it. It bears as many as 111 names. Although the font used for the writing has remained consistent, additional slabs of marble have been added to accommodate more names in this expanding list.

Delawar Khan Wazir, a senior journalist from South Waziristan Agency, who maintained a record of his own since 2001, claimed on September 5, 2015, that 1,114 tribal elders had been killed till that point by the Taliban, al Qaeda and their affiliates, in the seven agencies and six frontier regions of erstwhile FATA.

The attacks on tribal elders and their families demonstrate the abject failure, irresponsibility and inconsistency of state policies that have worsened the vulnerabilities of this endangered leadership in FATA and KP. The attacks mainly target tribal elders who support Government operations against the terrorists and are often acts of vengeance by terrorists who have been forced to flee the areas due to successive military offensives. Brigadier (Retd.) Mehmood Shah, former FATA Security Secretary, had stated on May 11, 2017, that the Taliban began targeting tribal elders in 2005 after the elders voiced their support for the Government, Army and intelligence agencies. He observed,

At the end of 2004, the tribal elders signed agreements with the political administration, [allowing] for the arrest of Taliban members in tribal areas. The agreements aimed to discourage the Taliban's presence and power in the region, which previously the tribal community tolerated. That enraged the militants and they started killing elders.

Not surprisingly, during the peak of militancy between 2008 and 2015, at least 127 tribal elders’ heads rolled in the war against terrorism in tribal areas, accounting for 78 per cent of the total of 163 killings of tribal elders recorded by SATP. Many locals fled the troubled region as a result. The Army in the meantime lunched major counter-insurgency operations – Zarb-e-Azb (Sword of the Prophet) on June 15, 2014, and Radd-ul-Fasaad (Elimination of Discord) on February 22, 2017 – directed against domestically oriented terror groups. These operations forced these terrorist formations to escape the region and take shelter in areas across the border, inside Afghanistan. It helped authorities restore comparative peace in Pakistan’s tribal belt, and also had an impact on the terrorists’ capacities to target tribal society and to assassinate tribal elders. Consequently, in 2016 and 2017, only two tribal elders were killed in each year, as against 14 such killings during 2015.

According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) report of January 18, 2018, between 2008 and 2014, more than five million people were displaced from FATA due to the security operations by the military against non-state armed groups. In mid-2015, because of the improved security situation and a more conducive environment for their return, the Government of Pakistan initiated a rehabilitation process for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in different FATA agencies based, on the denotification notices issued by the FATA Secretariat. Since then the Government, with the help of humanitarian partners, has facilitated 438,657 (93%) of the displaced families to return to FATA. There remains a total of some 29,000 families who are yet to return in 2018. The tribal areas have been wrecked by the war. The FATA Disaster Management Authority (FDMA) on October 3, 2017, disclosed that approximately 80,000 houses were either fully or partially damaged due to militancy in the five agencies of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.

Meanwhile, tribesmen from different parts of North Waziristan staged a protest demonstration at Mirali town on May 14, 2018, against increasing violence in the area, especially targeted killings. Tribal elder Malik Ghulam Dawar observed that tribesmen were facing severe unrest due to regular targeted killing incidents. He added that they had abandoned their homes and became IDPs for the return of peace, but now upon repatriation, they are once again facing violence. He added that such incidents confirm the presence of anti-social elements in the area and the Government needs to fulfill its responsibilities.

Despite unqualified support and immense help from the tribal elders and communities in the war against terrorism, Islamabad has demonstrated little concern for the safety and development of the tribal regions. The populations of KP (including erstwhile FATA) continue to suffer under sweeping and indiscriminate military operations, largely executed through haphazard bombings and artillery attacks on populated areas, which has brought ruination to the entire region and its populations.