South Asia Terrorism Portal
Suicide Offensive Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
On November 28, 2018, at least 10 people were killed and another 29 injured in a suicide attack in Kabul City (District), the national capital.
On November 23, 2018, at least 10 soldiers of the 2nd Regiment of the Afghan National Army (ANA) were killed in a suicide attack that targeted soldiers inside a mosque at their base in the Mandozai District of Khost Province. Another 15 soldiers were injured in the explosion.
On November 20, 2018, at least 55 people were killed and 94 injured in a suicide bombing conducted inside the Uranus Wedding Hall in Kabul City.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 822 people have died in 64 suicide attacks across Afghanistan in the current year (data till November 30, 2018). There were 613 fatalities in 52 such attacks through 2017; and 503 fatalities in 43 incidents in 2016.
According to the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict: Annual Report 2017 2017 had already recorded the highest number of civilian casualties (both in terms of deaths and injuries separately) caused by suicide attacks in Afghanistan since 2009, when United Nations Assistance Mission’s (UNAMA) started documenting civilian fatalities in Afghanistan. According to the report, there were 2,295 civilian casualties (605 deaths and 1,690 injuries) due to suicide attacks in 2017. The previous highest of number of deaths (488) was recorded in 2011, while previous highest of injuries (1,565) were reported in 2016.
Casualties in suicide attacks have been on the rise since 2009, with the exception of years 2010, 2012, and 2013. According to latest quarterly report by Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict released on October 10, 2018, between January 1, 2018, and September 30, 2018, there have been 2,243 civilian casualties (714 deaths and 1,629 injuries) in suicide attacks.
Civilian Deaths and Injuries in Suicide Attacks in Afghanistan: 2009-2017
Source: UNAMA
Significantly, as SAIR noted earlier, despite 30 years of warfare, Afghanistan had never experienced a suicide attack until September 9, 2001, when the Northern Alliance Commander Ahmad Shah Masood was assassinated at Khwaja Bahauddin in Takhar Province by two Arab al Qaeda suicide bombers. With this event, Afghanistan was thrust into a new chapter of armed conflict. According to partial data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM) from media reports, Afghanistan witnessed 421 incidents of suicide attacks between September 9, 2001, and December 31, 2008, resulting in 1,231 fatalities. Thereafter, between January 1, 2009, and September 30, 2018, UNAMA has recorded more than 654 suicide attacks resulting in 14,248 casualties 3,274 deaths and 10,974 injuries). [No. of suicide attacks for year 2009 and 2018 is not available]
Neighbouring Pakistan, which is primarily responsible for the consistently deteriorating security scenario in Afghanistan, remains the principal source of the continuing menace of suicide attacks. According to a report titled Suicide Attacks in Afghanistan (2001-2007) released by UNAMA on September 1, 2007,
The report also disclosed,
The evidence of involvement continues to crop up. Referring to a spate of suicide attacks in January 2018 Mohammad Stanekzai, the head of Afghanistan's spy agency, National Directorate of Security (NDS) on February 1, 2018, categorically stated on February 1, 2018, “We asked Pakistan to hand over the culprits of the attacks in Afghanistan and we shared undeniable evidence that the attacks were planned there”. More recently, on October 23, 2018, President Ashraf Ghani observed, “I want to say that this conspiracy was plotted in Pakistan. So Pakistan should give us the criminals so that we can bring them to justice.” He was referring to the killing of Kandahar Police Commander Gen. Abdul Raziq in Kandahar City (District), the capital of Kandahar Province, on October 18, 2018.
The principal architect of the initial upsurge of suicide attacks was senior Taliban ‘commander’ Mullah Dadullah aka Dadullah Akhund, who targeted Afghan and Western troops in Southern Afghanistan. Though Dadullah was killed in a raid by International Security Assistance Force troops in Kandahar City on May 12, 2007, the trend of suicide bombings continues to terrorise Afghanistan. The Taliban remains the primary player. According to UNAMA’s latest quarterly report released on October 10, 2018,
There were a total of 2,798 deaths in Afghanistan during this period.
It has long been established that Taliban’s survival primarily depends on Pakistan’s continuing support and provision of safe havens. Indeed, Mullah Rahmatullah Kakazada, a senior diplomat under the Taliban regime, according to a November 29, 2016, report, had categorically stated, “If we left Pakistan we would not survive one week”. He was responding to a report that said Syed Mohammad Tayyab Agha, the former head of the Taliban’s Qatar office, in letter to Mullah Akhundzada had said, “to be able to make independent decisions, you, the members of our leadership council, and heads of our various commissions, should leave Pakistan.” Way back in 2010, one of the Taliban’s southern ‘commanders’ (name not disclosed) in an interview had stated,
No respite from suicide bombings in particular and terror attacks at large inside Afghanistan is likely in the foreseeable future, as there is no evidence on the ground to suggest that Pakistan is going to give up its policy of exporting terror into its neighbourhood. On the contrary, with Imran Khan assuming the office of Prime Minister in August 2018, there is a high probability of the Taliban gaining more support from Islamabad. Khan has strong links with the Afghan Taliban, and a close relationship with the Pakistan Army, and there is likely to be a complete unity of purpose on Islamabad’s strategy of disruption in Afghanistan.
On Again Anurag Sharma Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On November 26, 2018, the Maldives’ Minister of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) Abdullah Shahid, after his meeting with India’s External Affairs Minister (EAM) Sushma Swaraj, tweeted, “A new era of enhanced cooperation emerging in Maldives-India relationship under President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih”. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) Spokesperson Raveesh Kumar had, earlier in the day, tweeted, “Harmonious synergy of India's 'Neighbourhood First' & Maldives’ 'India First' policy”. The two foreign ministers, meanwhile, during the meeting agreed that the State Visit of Maldives’ newly elected President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih to India would take place on December 17, 2018.
According to the November 26, 2018, Press Release of India’s Ministry of External Affairs,
MoFA Abdullah Shahid had come to India on an official Ministerial visit between November 24-27, 2018, and was accompanied by three other Maldivian Ministers: Minister of Finance, Minister of Economic Development and Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, as well as the Foreign Secretary.
Earlier, on November 18, 2018, within 24-hours of the Presidential Oath ceremony of the newly elected Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, the Maldives’ new Defence Minister Mariya Didi, confirmed that the Maldives has no intentions to return the two helicopters which were gifted by India upon request from the Maldives, stating, “It is not our culture to ask neighbours [referring to India] to take back what they give.” In April 2010, India had handed over the first Naval helicopter – ‘Kurangi’, primarily meant for medical evacuations. Since its induction (2010) to the Maldives military, the aircraft had conducted 69 medical evacuations and saved 73 lives, the Indian High Commission had disclosed in January 2016. After the signing of an Indo-Maldives Defence Action Plan on April 11, 2016, India gifted a second Advance Light Helicopter (ALH) – ‘Dhruv’ to the Maldives on April 27, 2016, to be used for transporting patients and for Search and Rescue Operations. “Unlike normal helicopters, this one [the second helicopter] is fully air-conditioned and equipped with facilities to identify people at a distance,” the then-Maldivian Defence Minister Adam Shareef Umar had stated.
On November 17, 2018, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had visited Maldives to participate in the Presidential Oath Ceremony. After bilateral talks between Prime Minister Modi and President Solih, a joint press statement reiterated the “resilience of the relations” between the two countries, and stated:
According to reports, India was the only country invited at the ‘Head of State or Government' level at the Presidential Oath ceremony and Indian PM Modi was the first leader that Solih met after becoming President.
Presidential polls were held in The Maldives on September 23, 2018. The Parliamentary leader of the Opposition from the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) party since 2011, Solih secured 58.38 per cent of the votes while his nearest rival candidate and then-incumbent President Abdulla Yameen of the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) secured 41.62 per cent. According to reports, the MDP entered into a coalition with Jumhooree Party (JP), Adhaalath Party (AP) and the Maumoon Reform Movement (MRM) for the 2018 Presidential election.
Former President Mohamed Nasheed decided to relinquish MDP’s Presidential ticket citing concerns that the main opposition party would be left without a candidate in the upcoming Presidential elections in September 2018. The Elections Commission had, on May 22, threatened to dissolve the Maldivian Democratic Party if its presidential primary was conducted with former president Mohamed Nasheed as a candidate. With the withdrawal of Nasheed’s candidature MDP, on June 30, 2018, declared Ibrahim Mohamed Solih as its alternative candidate for the Presidential elections.
India and Maldives enjoyed a very strong bond during the tenure of Maldives’ first democratically elected President, Mohamed Nasheed, between 2008 and 2012. MoUs for a range of power projects were signed in 2009. In December 2010, the Government of India announced a new Line of Credit (LOC) worth USD 40 million to the Government of Maldives for construction of 500 housing units. An agreement on the LOC was signed between the Indian Export-Import Bank and the Government of Maldives on August 12, 2011. During President Nasheed’s visit to India in December 2008, the Government of India extended a Standby Credit Facility of USD 100 million to Maldives. Again, a new Standby Credit Facility of USD 100 million was extended to Maldives during the November 2011 visit of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Malé. On November 12, 2011, a Framework Agreement between the Government of India and Maldives was signed, on among other things,
The bonding has been strong since India was among first countries to recognise Maldives’ independence in 1965.
Nasheed had been forced to resign on February 7, 2012, under the military pressure. He disclosed, on February 8, 2012, “I was forced to resign at gunpoint. There were guns all around me and they told me they wouldn't hesitate to use them if I didn't resign." He claimed the move was planned with the knowledge of the Vice-President Mohammed Waheed Hassan Manik, who replaced him. The role of China and Pakistan in the conspiracy for Nasheed’s ouster has been widely confirmed. Ameen Faisal, Nasheed's Defence Minister disclosed, "I was the defence minister of Maldives. I know how both China and Pakistan are desperately trying to make inroads here. We are India's natural allies…” Further Nasheed himself had revealed, “The Maldivian National Defence Force was keen to renew its defence agreement with Beijing. Twice they came to me when I was President. I refused.''
As the Pakistan-China stranglehold on Maldives strengthened, the relationship with New Delhi suffered. In a surprise move on November 27, 2012, the Maldives cabinet annulled the agreement made with India’s GMR Group to operate the Ibrahim Nasir International Airport (INIA) at Hulhule Island near Malé. The USD 500 million contract awarding the airport to the GMR Group for 25 years was signed on June 28, 2010, by the then President Nasheed.
In the November 2013 Presidential elections, Abdulla Yameen defeated Nasheed. Maldives’ drift towards China accelerated. In September 2014, the Ibrahim Nasir International Airport (INIA) project was handed over to China. China made other huge investments. On December 30, 2015, President Abdulla Yameen and Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Gao Yan inaugurated the landmark “China-Maldives Friendship Bridge” project following the signing of a contract with the CCCC Second Harbour Engineering Company. The bridge was opened for traffic on August 30, 2018. On December 8, 2017, Maldives entered into a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China. It was Maldives’ first such treaty with any country. Maldives became only the second South Asian country after Pakistan to sign an FTA with China. According to reports, China has already invested USD 1.5 billion in the Maldives.
The Yameen Government also sought to improve ties with Pakistan. Yameen visited Pakistan in May 2015, the first such visit by a Maldives President in eleven years. Yameen declared,
It is significant that President Nasheed had explicitly blamed Pakistan for emerging terrorism in the Malidives.
Nevertheless, relations with Pakistan improved further under Yameen. Most recently, during Pakistan’s Military chief Qamar Javed Bajwa’s visit to Maldives in March 2018 the two sides “discussed about supporting the Maldives with military training, medical aid and jointly patrolling the Maldivian Exclusive Economic Zones.” In July 2018, the head of the Maldives State Electricity Company (STELCO) visited Pakistan and signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for "cooperation in institution-building activities” in the Maldives. Reacting to the development, an Indian official had argued,
Currently, the Maldives economic situation is in dire straits. According to the South Asia Country Brief report on the Maldives prepared by The World Bank in April 2018, the current account deficit widened sharply from 3.2 percent in 2004 to an estimated 21.4 percent of GDP [Gross Domestic Product] in 2017 due to the rise in investment related-imports. As the Maldives’ economy is based on tourism and fisheries—the complex political situation, weak government institutions, high fiscal deficit and public debt, had an adverse impact on the Maldives. The World Bank report further stated that the vulnerability of the overall debt portfolio, with indebtedness levels at over 60 percent of GDP, is heightened by the short maturity of domestic debt and low reserve coverage. The large volume of external loans and guarantees on non-concessional terms to finance infrastructure projects represent significant risks.
Not surprisingly, Maldives has requested the Indian government for “generous aid” in order to manage the State budget for the coming year. MoFA Abdulla Shahid in an interview on November 25, 2018, had said,
November 27, 2018, reports quoted Indian government sources as saying, “India will give immediate assistance of USD 25 million to the Maldives [for budgetary stability] and is ready to deliver a Dornier maritime surveillance aircraft to the Maldives. Other aspects of assistance are being worked out.”
Conspicuously, a strong and stable Maldives is essential for India’s security as reports in past had clearly demonstrated that Maldives had been used for anti-India activities. Some Maldivians who spent time in the Pakistan-Afghanistan region had been sent to carry out attacks in India. At least two Maldivian nationals are known to have died fighting in Kashmir in early 2007. The 26/11 Mumbai terrorist attacks also had a Maldivian connection, as conceded by former President Nasheed. In an interview published on October 25, 2009, Nasheed had categorically stated,
Moreover, radicalisation within Maldivian society has been on the rise. Former President Mohamed Nasheed in an interview published on February 25, 2018, had thus warned,
Indeed, Andreas Johansson, a senior political scientist attached to Lund University in Sweden, noted in May 2018,
Further, in 2008, Maldives national Ali Assham was deported from Sri Lanka to the Maldives. Ali Assham was allegedly involved with the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) network that had attacked the Indian Institute of Science (IIS) in Bengaluru in 2005. Despite Indian demands, he was never prosecuted and now lives in Malé. In 2009, India’s Intelligence Bureau (IB) had issued a warning that the next big attack on Indian soil could be launched from the Maldives and that this threat necessitated the establishment of a robust coastal security apparatus. The IB had also cautioned that terrorist groups like LeT were trying to infiltrate India’s porous coastline.
The Maldives’ geo-strategic location makes it vulnerable to states and forces that have been relentless in their effort to destabilise India, exploiting the archipelago nation’s precarious socio-political conditions. It is imperative for New Delhi, therefore, to support Malé in this hour of crisis.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia November 26- December 2, 2018
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
Total
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
Manipur
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
Jharkhand
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
KP
PAKISTAN (Total)
There is no coordination in Bangladesh Government’s de-radicalization programs, say Experts: Experts said that there is no coordination in Bangladesh Government’s de-radicalization programs. Although a number of ad hoc de-radicalization and rehabilitation programs have been taken up by the law enforcement agencies and the Government, many of them have been discontinued due to a lack of coordination among agencies. Inspector General (IG) of Prisons, Brig Gen Syed Iftekhar Uddin said “We lack the manpower or expertise required for de-radicalizing militant suspects in custody. However, we do keep them separate from other general inmates to keep them away from militant ideologies.” Dhaka Tribune, November 30, 2018.
Ganapathi has been replaced, say Maoists: The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) have released a statement saying their chief, Muppala Lakshman Rao aka Ganapathi, has stepped down voluntarily because of “falling health and old age” and the current chief, Basavaraj aka Nambala Keshava Rao, who has a reward of over INR 20 million on his head, has replaced Ganapathi last year. According to a senior Government official, Basavaraj (63), a B.Tech. from Warangal in Telangana, was last spotted in Malkangiri District of Odisha in July 2018. The statement in Hindi, dated November 10, said that at the fifth meeting of the ‘central committee, CC’ of the CPI-Maoist, Ganapathi proposed that Basavaraj aka Nambala Keshava Rao, take over as the ‘general secretary’ of the Maoist outfit. The Hindu, November 29, 2018.
Kartarpur Corridor is a bridge to Khalistan mission, claims ‘Sikhs for Justice’: The United States (US) based pro-Khalistan group—Sikh For Justice (SFJ) has appreciated the Kartarpur Corridor as a ‘bridge’ to the mission of Khalistan and has announced to host ‘Kartarpur Sahib Convention-2019’ in Pakistan. SFJ runs a pro-Khalistan campaign with support from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) towards creation of a separate Sikh land from India. SJF would hold a convention in Pakistan during the global gathering of Sikh separatists in Pakistan on the occasion of 550 birth anniversary of first Guru of Sikh religion— Guru Nanak Dev Ji, in November 2019. Times of India, November 28, 2018.
Yung Aung led NSCN-K names its various functionaries to look after India operations: Myanmar based Yung Aung-led Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland- Khaplang (NSCN-K), released the names of its functionaries. In a press release ‘ministry of information and publicity’ (MIP) had the following names: kilonser, Starson - Kohima and Wokha; kilonser, Hriipunii Vemai (Manipur); kilonser, Sangkhanchu (Kiphire); ‘deputy commander-in-chief’ ‘Naga Army’ ‘lieutenant general’, Niki Sumi - Dimapur and Zunheboto (in continuation); deputy kilonser, Y. Ashang and ‘lt.’ Kamthu, Naga Army (Phek); CCM, Imti Imchen (Mokokchung); ‘brig.’ Naga Army, Yangang Konyak (Longleng and Tuensang); and selected and specified special contract works and departments, and districts not specifically allocated will be directly dealt with by ‘council headquarters’ (Central). Nagaland Post, November 27, 2018.
India likely to assist Maldives with USD 1 billion loan to re-pay China’s debt, says report: India is all-set to ‘financially assist’ the Maldives in the form of a loan of USD One billion for re-paying the China’s debt on the Island nation. The loan would help Maldives repay its debt to China and for development projects planned for the next five years by the newly-elected administration under the Maldivian President Ibrahim Solih, commented Japan’s media group — “Nikkei Asian Review”. The Edition, November 28, 2018.
Maldives enters ‘new era’ of enhanced cooperation with India, says Maldives MoFA: The Maldives’ Minister of Foreign Affairs (MoFA)—Abdullah Shahid on November 26 has stated that the newly elected government of Maldives under the President Ibrahim Solih have entered into a new era of enhanced cooperation with India. During his official visit to India and meeting with India’s Minister of External Affairs (MoEA)—Sushma Swaraj, Minister Shahid tweeted that he was “deeply touched and encouraged” after the official meeting between him and MoEA Swaraj. President Solih had discussed the matter of Maldives’ debt with the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on his visit to the Maldives. The Maldives has request to the Indian government for ‘generous assistance’ as an aid of USD 250-350 million in order to manage the State budget for the coming year, said MoFA Shahid. The Edition, November 28, 2018.
Army prepared to respond to any threat on borders, says CoAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa: The Chief of Army Staff (CoAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa on November 30 said the military is prepared to respond to any conventional threat on borders for defence of the motherland. “The COAS visited formation of Sialkot Corps during its winter collective training exercise,” the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) statement said. “Gen Qamar witnessed final phase of the operational exercise by an Infantry Division,” the ISPR said adding that “COAS appreciated battle procedures and operational proficiency of the participants.” The Express Tribune, December 1, 2018.
'Inherited' issues like Saeed, Dawood; can't be held responsible for past, says PM Imran Khan: Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan said on November 29 that it was not in his country's interest to have its territory used for terror outside, while maintaining that he could not be held responsible for issues like the 26/11Mumbai attacks, which he had inherited. "I can say in all earnestness that it's not in Pakistan's interest to allow its soil to be used for terror outside," Khan said at least twice during an interaction with a group of visiting Indian journalists.PM Imran Khan was answering queries on India's concerns over terrorism and the need for Pakistan to bring to justice terrorists like Hafiz Saeed (for his role in the Mumbai attacks), Dawood Ibrahim and Masood Azhar. "One should learn from history, not live in it. The Mumbai attacks issue is sub-judice. My Government inherited this. I can't be held responsible for the past," Khan said, adding that there were UN sanctions on Saeed's group and he had been under a severe clampdown. Times of India , November 30, 2018.
Interior Ministry to unveil a new version of NAP: The Ministry of Interior plans to unveil a new version of the National Action Plan (NAP) and restructure the National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA) to effectively tackle internal threats to security. The NAP-2 is aimed at bridging the gaps in the first version rolled out in January 2015, in the aftermath of the attack on the Army Public School (APS) in Peshawar in 2014. According to the document, the interior ministry plans to create a cyber security organisation to effectively counter the growing threat of cybercrimes. Dawn, November 28, 2018.
Parliament curtails expenditure for Prime Minister's office: Parliament on November 29 voted in favor for a motion to curtail the budgetary allocations for the Prime Minister's office. The motion to suspend expenditures of Prime Minister's office, passed with 123 MPs voting in favor and 0 against. All parliamentarians of United National Front (UNF), Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) voted in favor of the motion demonstrating majority in the House. Colombo Page , November 30, 2018.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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