South Asia Terrorism Portal
Maoists: Wounded, not Vanquished Deepak Kumar Nayak. Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On March 26, 2019, at least four Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres were killed in an encounter with Security Forces (SFs) near Karkanguda village under the Chintalnar Police Station in the Sukma District of Chhattisgarh. SFs recovered bodies of four Maoists along with one INSAS (Indian Small Arms System) assault rifle and two .303 rifles from the encounter site. The identities of the slain Maoists are yet to be established.
On March 21, 2019, two members of a family were killed and another two sustained injuries after cadres of the People's Liberation Front of India (PLFI), a splinter group of the CPI-Maoist, barged into their house in Turundu village under the Kamdara Police Station in Gumla District of Jharkhand, and opened fire hours after Holi festivities concluded. Police suspect that the refusal to pay ‘levy’ (extortion) was a probable reason for the attack.
On March 19, 2019, a woman CPI-Maoist cadre was killed in a brief encounter with SFs in the forest region under Gatapar Police Station area in Rajnandgaon District of Chhattisgarh. After the encounter, the dead body of a woman Maoist, identified as Jamuna aka Sagan Bai (45), carrying a reward of INR 800,000, was recovered from the encounter site, along with an automatic weapon.
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 72 persons have been killed in Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-linked violence across the country in 2019, thus far (data till March 31, 2019). These included 20 civilians, two SF personnel and 50 Naxalites (Left Wing Extremists). During the corresponding period of 2018, such fatalities stood at 96 (28 civilians, 27 SF personnel and 41 Naxalites). There were a total of 413 fatalities (109 civilians, 73 SF personnel, 231 Naxalites) in LWE-linked violence across India in 2018, as against 333 fatalities (109 civilians, 74 SF personnel, 150 Naxalites) in 2017. Total LWE-linked fatalities stood at 433 in 2016; 251 in 2015; 314 in 2014; 421 in 2013; 367 in 2012; 602 in 2011; and 1,180 in 2010 – the highest recorded in a year since the formation of CPI-Maoist in September 2004. Annual fatalities have followed a cyclical trend since 2010, and, indeed, earlier as well.
The number of civilians killed in both 2017 and 2018 remained the same, 109 each. However, SFs secured an improved kill ratio in 2018, at 1:3.16, as against 1:2.02 in 2017. The 2018 ratio is the second best recorded, with the best at 3.69, in 2016.
Out of 28 major attacks (each involving three or more fatalities) recorded in 2018, 15 were initiated by SFs, while 13 were initiated by the Naxalites. These 28 incidents resulted in 157 deaths: eight civilians, 36 SF personnel and 113 Naxalites. In 2017, only four major attacks were initiated by SFs, while 11 were initiated by the Naxalites and four remained unspecified. These 19 major incidents had resulted in 122 deaths: six civilians, 52 SF personnel and 64 Naxalites. Clearly, the SFs intensified their operations during 2018, even as the Maoists were forced into a retreat.
Out of 231 Naxalites killed in 2018, those of ‘commander’ ranked was 28. In 2017, a total of 27 ‘commander’ ranked Naxalites were killed out of a total of 150 Naxalites killed. Since 2010, out of 1,619 Naxalites killed, 149 were of ‘commander’ rank (data till March 31, 2019).
128 incidents of arms recovery by SFs were recorded in 2018, in addition to 294 such incidents in 2017. In 2019, another 47 such incidents have already been recorded.
SFs arrested 786 Naxalites in 288 incidents through 2018, in addition to 870 arrested in 356 incidents through 2017. In 2019, as on March 31, 2019, the number of arrests stood at 94 in 42 such incidents.
Mounting SF pressure has also resulted in 480 Maoist surrenders in 85 incidents through 2018, in addition to 543 such surrender in 92 incidents through 2017. In 2019, as on March 31, the number of surrenders was 41 in 18 incidents.
According to data provided by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), there were a total of 833 LWE-linked incidents in 2018 as against 908 incidents recorded in 2017. The number of total incidents was 1,048 in 2016; 1,089 in 2015; 1,091 in 2014; 1,415 in 2013; 1,136 in 2012; 1,760 in 2011 and 2,213 in 2010. The figure of 2010 was the highest ever recorded in a year since the formation of the CPI-Maoist on September 21, 2004. 74 incidents had already been recorded in 2019, by January 31.
On April 16, 2018, UMHA announced, that 90 Districts in 11 States were affected by LWE violence. The maximum of 19 Districts were in Jharkhand, followed by 16 Districts in Bihar, 15 in Odisha, 14 in Chhattisgarh, eight in Telangana, six in Andhra Pradesh, three each in Kerala, Maharashtra, and Uttar Pradesh, two in Madhya Pradesh, and one in West Bengal. on February 5, 2019, UMHA again released the same list. Significantly, on June 2, 2014, UMHA had released a list of 106 LWE-affected Districts which according to UMHA’s release, had further increased to 126 in 2017. (principally as many Districts were bifurcated thereafter). Moreover, on April 16, 2018 MHA listed 36 Districts as “worst affected”. The list was updated on August 1, 2018, categorizing 30 Districts as ‘worst affected’. MHA’s February 5, 2019 release, indicates that violence was reported from 90 Districts in 2018 as against 223 in 2008.
According to SATP, though the number of extremely-affected Maoist Districts increased from one in 2017 to three in 2018, highly-affected Maoist Districts declined from nine in 2017 to six in 2018. Moderately-affected Maoist Districts increased from 30 in 2017 to 36 in 2018, while marginally-affected Maoist districts declined from 68 in 2017 to 36 in 2018.
Disconcerted by the weakening movement, the Maoists replaced Muppala Lakshmana Rao aka Ganapathy, the 71-year-old ‘general secretary’ of the CPI-Maoist, on November 5, 2018, with his ‘second-in-command’ Nambala Keshava Rao aka Basavaraj (63). Basavaraj was heading the CPI-Maoist's ‘military-wing’, PLGA (People's Liberation Guerrilla Army), since its inception. He is also suspected to be behind almost all major Maoist attacks that have taken place in Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Odisha in the recent past. Basavaraj is an expert in explosives and military techniques and has a good network with arms traders. He also has a reputation for greater proclivity to violence than Ganapathy.
The affected States and Union Government launched a number of new initiatives on the security front in 2018, in addition to several measures undertaken over past years. Most recently, on February 13, 2019, the Union Government informed Parliament that, to provide better mobile connectivity in LWE-affected areas, the Union Cabinet had approved INR 73.3 billion plus applicable taxes, and UMHA had identified tower locations in the LWE-affected areas in 96 Districts across 10 States. On January 8, 2019, the Union Government disclosed that in 2017-18 it launched a new scheme, the ‘Special Central Assistance for the most LWE Affected Districts’ to fill up critical gaps in Public Infrastructure and Services with an outlay of INR 30 billion @ INR 10 billion per annum. Earlier, on March 21, 2018, the Government had informed Parliament that, under the Road Requirement Plan-I (RRP-I), of the sanctioned 5,422 kilometres roads in 34 LWE affected districts, 4,537 kilometres of road had been completed, while the remaining 885 kilometres were ‘under construction’. On March 21, 2018, the Union Government stated that, to boost education, at least eight new Kendriya Vidyalayas (KVs) were sanctioned, of which seven were already functional, and another three KVs are likely to be sanctioned shortly. Also, at least five new Jawahar Navodaya Vidyalayas (JNVs) were sanctioned for LWE affected districts, and all of them were functional.
On October 7, 2018, a buoyant Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh, asserted,
It is, however, useful to recall that then Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram, way back on July 29, 2010, had asserted,
The intermittent audacious attacks of the recent past clearly indicate that the Maoists still possess the wherewithal, albeit diminishing, to strike at will. On October 30, 2018, three Policemen were killed and another two Police personnel injured, in a CPI-Maoist ambush at Nilawaya near the Sumeli Camp in the Dantewada District of Chhattisgarh. Doordarshan (DD) News cameraperson Achyutananda Sahu (34) from Loisingha in the Bolangir District of Odisha was also killed in the attack.
The Maoist movement has weakened, as the SFs now dominate areas long under LWE sway. Nevertheless, the capacities to sustain dominance remain deficient. According to Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data, the all-India Police-population ratio was 150.75 (as on January 1, 2017), in comparison to 137.11 per 100,000 on January 1, 2016. Some of the Maoists affected States have much worse police-population ratios: Bihar, at 74.76; and Odisha at 132.87. Even in States like Jharkhand, where the police-population ratio, at 174.96, exceeds the national average, it remains much lower than the 220/100,000 ratio regarded as desirable for 'peacetime policing'.
The number of vacancies across the country, in the apex Indian Police Service (IPS) was 938, as on January 1, 2017. Moreover, huge vacancies persist in the entire Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs), which have been increasingly used in fight against the Naxalites: 166,896 vacant posts as on January 1, 2017, against a sanctioned strength of 1,154,393 (actual strength: 987,497). Significantly, against a sanctioned strength of 322,066, in the CRPF, the lead counter-insurgency Force in the country, the actual strength stood at 296,404, a vacancy of 25,662 personnel.
Stark deficits are noticeable in some of the worst afflicted States. According to the BPR&D, as on January 1, 2017, there were at least 126 Police Stations in Chhattisgarh, the worst Naxalism-affected State, which did not have a vehicle. Similarly, the second worst affected State, Jharkhand, had 23 such Police stations. The number of Police Stations without telephones in these two States was 23 and 64, respectively.
The Maoists are certainly in retreat, but the threat is still alive. Sadly, the state appears to lack the sense of urgency required to build the capacities to sustain and consolidate the gains of recent years.
Political Slugfest, Undue Pressure Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
Despite the passage of nearly a decade since the end of the civil war in Sri Lanka, the issue of alleged ‘war crimes’ during the last phases of the war continues to ‘haunt’ the international community, mainly the western world. On March 29, 2019, the Australian envoy to Sri Lanka, Acting Ambassador John Philp reiterated these ‘concerns’, stating, “we do want to work with the Sri Lankan tri-services, (but) we do know that there are serious allegations. We certainly believe that they should be taken seriously".
Certain ‘foreign powers’ who were not happy with the outcome in 2009 have since being targeting Colombo and putting undue pressure on the Government. On March 21, 2019, the United Nations High Rights Council (UNHRC), during its 40th Session (February 25- March 22, 2019) adopted a resolution (A/HRC/40/L.1 titled Promoting reconciliation, accountability and human rights in Sri Lanka) asking Colombo to follow the recommendations made in a report submitted to the Human Rights Council on February 8, 2019. The report recommended the Government of Sri Lanka to
The ‘hybrid court’ would include international judges, lawyers and investigators judges and in its processes. The UNHRC while adopting the resolution gave an extension till March 2021 for Sri Lanka to implement its commitments. It was the second extension obtained by Sri Lanka since the original resolution was passed in October 2015 and extended in March 2017. Ironically, the resolution had the support of Sri Lanka, and the Sri Lankan representative signed the report on February 25, 2019.
The UNHRC resolution was adopted despite Tilak Marapana, PC., Sri Lanka’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, speaking at the at the 40th Session of the UNHRC on March 20, 2019, rejected the recommendation, arguing
He argued further,
He also rejected the demand to set up an Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) in the country.
Indeed, Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena observed, on March 28, 2019, that although the Government had admitted the correct facts of the statements issued by the UNHRC, it is not willing to accept the erroneous assertions in those statements under any circumstances, and that he would not implement any resolutions of the UNHRC which is contrary to the Constitution, or which will endanger the sovereignty, of the country. The President also insisted that he would not in any way accept the agreement signed by the Sri Lankan Ambassador in Geneva with the UNHRC in February, as it was signed without the knowledge of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or its Secretary. He added that he would extend his fullest discontentment regarding this incident which occurred due to the “wrongful decisions of our own parties.”
It is useful to recall here that all this is occurring amidst a political slugfest in Sri Lanka, which started with the ouster of President Mahinda Rajapaksa from power in January 2015 and later deepened further reached to an alarming level in October 2018. President Sirisena set off a rolling crisis when he sacked the Prime Minister and leader of the United National Party (UNP) Ranil Wickremesinghe on October 26, 2018, and appointed former President and Kurunegala District Member of Parliament (MP) Mahinda Rajapaksa to the post. However, as President Sirisena realized that his de facto Prime Minister, Rajapaksa, would not command a majority in Parliament, in an extraordinary Gazette notification he announced the dissolution of Parliament with effect from November 9, midnight, and scheduled general elections to be held on January 5, 2019.
However, exactly 34 days later, on December 13, 2018, the Supreme Court (SC) of Sri Lanka ruled, that President Sirisena's decision was illegal and unconstitutional. After the SC ruling, UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe was sworn-in on December 16, 2018, for a fifth time, as the Prime Minister, ending a nearly two-month long political crisis.
The SC ruling and subsequent restoration of the Government clearly demonstrated that roots of democracy have deepened in the island nation, and that the judicial system is robust and has the capabilities to instill confidence among the masses.
Indeed, Sri Lanka has taken deep strides forward since the end of the civil war. Highlighting these achievements, Mass Media and Information Minister Keheliya Rambukwella emphasized on August 28, 2013, that, during a short period of four years after the end of hostilities, approximately 300,000 displaced persons had been resettled. He had also disclosed that only 232 surrendered Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) cadres were left in camps. When the war had ended in May 2009, around 11,800 ex-LTTE cadres had surrendered to the Security Forces (SFs). In 2015, the Government disclosed that it had also successfully rehabilitated most of the former LTTE cadres, with only 49 hardcore LTTE elements remaining in detention.
More recently, on September 5, 2018, the Office on Missing Persons (OMP) handed its Interim Report to President Maithripala Sirisena. The OMP was operationalized on March 13, 2018, to determine the status of all persons who went 'missing' during the civil war. According to the Paranagama Commission Report, around 21,000 people went missing during the civil war.
Moreover, during his speech at the UN, on March 20, 2019, Tilak Marapana, PC., the Minister of Foreign Affairs had also disclosed,
Further, to expand national unity and reconciliation projects island-wide, and to create a discourse on reconciliation at the grass roots level, the Office for National Unity and Reconciliation (ONUR) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with 22 Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) on July 3, 2018. The main objective of the MoU was to expand the "Heal the Past, Build the Future" project in 17 selected Districts. Meanwhile, the Office for Reparations Bill, ratified by the Cabinet on June 13, 2018, for the payment of reparations to war-affected and missing persons, was submitted to Parliament on July 17, 2018. However, on August 7, 2018, the Supreme Court shot down two clauses of the Bill on the grounds that they vested judicial powers in the Office for Reparations. According to the Court, Sections 27 (a) and 27 (A) (iii) of the Bill were inconsistent with Sections 4 (D) and Section 3 of the Constitution and therefore the Court stated that the Bill has to be approved by a two-thirds majority of the total number of members in the Parliament, in order to bring about a Constitutional amendment. The SC also recommended that the Bill should be approved by the people through a referendum and that the inconsistency could be removed if amendments were made in line with the directions it had given. No further development has taken place in this regard.
More importantly, not a single terrorist attack has been recorded in the country since the end of war in 2009. Significantly, the Global Terrorism Index 2018 report noted,
Some worries, of course, remain. Despite Wickremesinghe’s restoration as Prime Minister, the subsequent conflict over Cabinet appointments indicated that Sirisena and Wickremesinghe were still at loggerheads, and the country's political crisis was far from over. Moreover, Sirisena and the Constitutional Council (CC) were also on a collision course over the appointment of judges to the Supreme Court and the Court of Appeal.
Despite dramatic achievements in the normalization process after the end of the civil war, infirmities in the democratization process persist, feeding a fractious politics and institutional instability. The risk of new misadventures being launched by extreme political ideologies lingers in the backdrop.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia March 25 - 31, 2019
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
Total
INDIA
Arunachal Pradesh
Jammu and Kashmir
INDIA (Left-Wing Extremism)
Chhattisgarh
INDIA (Total)
PAKISTAN
Balochistan
KP
PAKISTAN (Total)
‘Enemies preparing for war on orders of their foreign masters’, asserts Acting Defense Minister Asadullah Khalid: The acting minister of defense Asadullah Khalid has said that the Ministry of Defense has received reports which indicate that enemies of the country are preparing for war based on orders of their foreign masters. Khalid said the current year (2019) will be a decisive but a dangerous year as reports received by the ministry of defense indicate that the enemies are preparing for war based on orders of their foreign masters. The Khaama Press, March 27, 2019.
Chief Executive Abdullah sees Taliban as main obstacle for peace, states report: Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah on March 27, said Taliban is the main obstacle on the way of bringing peace in the country because the group insists on establishment of an Islamic emirate and refuses to talk to the Afghan government. “Taliban has been the obstacle for taking the first step (for peace) because they have an excuse that we do not negotiate with government and that is why I say that Taliban is an obstacle on the way of reaching to peace,” Abdullah said. Tolo News, March 28, 2019.
Afghanistan recalls Ambassador to Pakistan over PM Imran’s interim Government remarks: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan has announced that the Afghan Ambassador to Islamabad has been recalled for further consultations over Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s recent ‘irresponsible’ remarks regarding interim government. “Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, summoned the Deputy Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan with respect to the recent irresponsible remarks of Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement. The Khaama Press, March 26, 2019.
Won't relocate Rohingyas if stakeholders don't agree, says Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen: Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen on March 27 said that Bangladesh would not relocate Rohingyas to Bashan Char, an island in Noakhali District, if stakeholders do not agree. “We thought they [Rohingyas] will live there better," AK Abdul Momen told reporters mentioning that the Government had made big arrangements for Rohingyas in Bashan Char. The Daily Star, March 28, 2019.
BNP-Jamaat conspiracy behind delay in declaration of 1971 genocide, says Awami League Joint General Secretary Mahbub-Ul-Alam Hanif: Awami League (AL) Joint General Secretary Mahbub-Ul-Alam Hanif alleged that Bangladesh is yet to get international recognition of genocide committed by Pakistani occupation forces on unarmed Bangalees on March 25, 1971 due to Bangladesh Nationalist Party-Jamaat conspiracy. “It's part of conspiracy of BNP leader Khaleda Zia as she raised question about the number of martyrs in the Liberation War. She showed favour towards Pakistan by raising question about the number of martyrs,” Hanif said. The Daily Star, March 27, 2019.
UMHA sets up Terror Monitoring Group to check flow of illegal funds in Jammu and Kashmir:The Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) said on March 29 that it is keeping a close watch on illegal flow of funds to fuel militancy in Jammu and Kashmir, and announced the setting up of a Terror Monitoring Group (TMG) aimed at taking ‘coordinated action against terror funding’. According to the order issued by UMHA, the terms of reference of the TMG include, “taking action against hardcore sympathisers among government employees including teachers etc providing overt or covert support to such activities”. Indian Express, March 30, 2019.
India Postpones second round of Kartarpur corridor talks with Pakistan: India on March 29 postponed the second round of corridor talks with Islamabad scheduled for April 2. This happened hours after India summoned Pakistan’s Deputy High Commissioner Syed Haider Shah and conveyed its concern over the presence of pro-Khalistan elements in a committee set up by Pakistan on the Kartarpur Corridor. The move came a day after Pakistan, responding to India’s dossier on Jaish-e-Mohammad’s involvement in the Pulwama terror attack on February 14, claimed it had examined the 22 “pin locations” shared by India but found no terror camp. The Indian Express, March 30, 2019.
Pulwama is the recruiting ground for LeT and JeM, says Government report: According to a report prepared by security agencies, Pakistan-based terror groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) recruited the most number of locals from Jammu and Kashmir’s Pulwama District both in 2018 and in 2019. About 63 locals were recruited from Pulwama in 2018 and two more this year (2019). Shopian District was a distant second, with 46 locals joining terror groups in 2018, but none in 2019. Hindustan Times, March 27, 2019.
ARSA has set base in Myanmar and Bangladesh, states report: India has found Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) has set up new bases at Myanmar and Bangladesh where cadre are being trained to launch massive attacks on security forces and big infrastructural projects. As per the intelligence report, some camps are situated very close to Rohingya refugee camps in Cox Bazar in Bangladesh. Their target are infrastructural projects between India and Myanmar. DNA, March 26, 2019.
Religious rhetoric in election campaign could incites violence, warns Presidential Commission investigating disappearances: The Chair of a Presidential Commission investigating unresolved murders and disappearances Husnu Suood warned that religious political rhetoric in the campaign for the upcoming April 6,2019 Parliamentary Elections could incite violence. Husnu Suood expressed concern after the opposition Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) and Jumhooree Party (JP) stepped up attacks against the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) with accusations of a hidden anti-Islamic agenda. Maldives Independent, March 28, 2019.
Government didn’t consult us, say War victims: Conflict victims have expressed displeasure over the Government’s decision to form a committee to recommend new members of the two Transitional Justice (TJ) mechanisms without holding any consultations with them. A meeting of the Cabinet last March 25 had decided to form the committee led by former Supreme Court chief justice Om Prakash Mishra, according to a Cabinet source. Tenure of members of Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC), and the Commission of Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Persons (CIEDP) expires on April 13. The Himalayan Times, March 28, 2019.
US moves resolution in UNSC to blacklist JeM chief Masood Azhar: The United States (US) on March 27 circulated the draft resolution to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to blacklist Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) chief Masood Azhar and subject him to a travel ban, an asset freeze and an arms embargo. United Nations (UN) sources said that this is the first time the US, the UK and France have moved a draft resolution directly in the UNSC to designate Azhar. The previous have been listing proposals in the Sanctions Committee of the Security Council to designate the JeM chief. Daily Excelsior, March 29, 2019.
Pakistan has no link to JeM, says Prime Minister Imran khan: Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan reiterated that the country has no link to the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM). “We’re already cracking down on them, we’re already dismantling the whole set-up,” he said in an interview with British Publication Financial Times. “What is happening right now has never happened before in Pakistan,” Imran Khan asserted. Imran khan also said that there is “no place for terrorists in his Naya Pakistan”. The News, March 28, 2019.
Prime Minister Imran Khan proposes interim setup in Afghanistan: Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan on March 25 suggested an interim setup in Afghanistan as a possible solution to an apparent impasse in the ongoing peace process, while blaming the Afghan Government for the stalemate in talks. According to the report, the suggestion came during Khan’s interaction with journalists at his office in Islamabad. “The Afghan government was a hurdle in peace process that was insisting that Taliban should talk to it,” said Khan. The Express Tribune, March 28, 2019.
President Maithripala Sirisena vows to safeguard country's independence and constitution from foreign forces: Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena on March 27 emphasized that he does not intend to take any action that would violate the constitution or harm the independence of the country according to the edicts of international community or anyone else. He said the statement made by the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (UNHCHR) that the private lands in the North and East used by the Security Forces (SFs) have not been released to the owners and the recommendation to appoint a commission for the release of lands were based on false information provided by the Non-governmental organizations. Colombo Page, March 28, 2019.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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