South Asia Terrorism Portal

Maoists: Waning Aura
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

On December 2, 2019, Police recovered a skeleton, suspected to be of one Nekhlal Masram (45), from a forested area near Chirkona village under the Lanjhi Police Station limits in the Balaghat District of Madhya Pradesh. Masram, a resident of Chirkona village, was abducted in the night of November 17, 2019, by three armed cadres of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), who accused him of being a ‘police informer’.

This is the only incident of killing recorded during the ‘PLGA [People Liberation of Guerrilla Army] Week’ [December 2 to December 8] in 2019. In 2018, at least five incidents of killing resulting in six deaths (five civilians and one Maoist) were reported. In 2017, there were seven such incidents, resulting in the death of 12 persons (five civilians and seven Maoists).

Since 2000, the Naxalites [Left Wing Extremists, LWEs] have been observing the ‘PLGA Week’ between December 2 and December 8. The ‘PLGA Week’ is observed to commemorate three ‘central committee, CC’ members of the outfit – Seelam Naresh, Nalla Adi Reddy and Yerramreddy Santosh Reddy – who were killed by the Security Forces (SFs) in the Koyyuru forest area of Karimnagar District of erstwhile Andhra Pradesh (now in Telangana) on December 2, 1999.

According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 80 incidents of killing resulting in 162 fatalities, including 64 civilians, 43 SF personnel, 52 LWEs, and three ‘unspecified’, have been reported during the ‘PLGA Week’ since 2000.

An overview of the fatalities suggests that the overall SF:LWE kill ratio during the ‘PLGA Week’ has been in favour of SFs at 1:1.20. However, over 20 years, the ratio has shifted to favour LWEs in four:  2006 (1.27:1), 2008 (1.66:1), 2011 (5:1), 2013 (8:1). In 2004 and 2016, the LWEs did not suffer any losses during the week, while inflicting a fatality each on SFs in each of these years.

Civilians, however, have suffered the maximum overall loss during ‘PLGA Week’ since 2000. Civilian fatalities increased to five in 2018, the highest since 2012, when they stood at seven. These have, however, declined to one in the current year. Conspicuously, during the ‘PLGA Week’ celebrations in the 20 years since 2000, a total of 64 civilians have been killed, as against 43 SF fatalities and 52 LWE fatalities.

In terms of overall fatalities during ‘PLGA Week’, on year on year basis, no definitive trend is established. However, 2006, was the worst year, with 25 fatalities, while 2019 has been the best, along with 2000, 2003, and 2015, each recording a single fatality.

Other parameters of violence are also indicative of the diminishing influence and impact of the rebels during this period. A maximum of 43 LWE-linked incidents were reported during this ‘week’ in 2011, which has come down to 12 in 2019. Further dissection of data shows that as against a high of seven incidents of explosion reported during this ‘week in 2011, there were just two such incidents in 2019.  No incident of arson was recorded in 2019, while at peak, in 2011, eight such incidents were recorded.

As per LWEs literature, the ‘PLGA Week’ is observed to, apart from targeting the SFs and public property, to review operations. Moreover, the Maoists use this period to take forward their cause and create a platform to recruit fresh blood into their fold.

Indeed, during the ‘PLGA Week’ in 2019, CPI-Maoist through posters and banners urged people to join their organisation. For instance, on December 6, 2019, CPI-Maoist posters and banners urging women to join their organisation were put up at several places in Chitrakonda area under Kalimela region of Malkangiri District of Odisha.  

Similarly, according to a December 3, 2018, report, to replenish the diminishing cadre strength, the Maoists through posters had asked the youths to join “the armed class struggle to liberate poor and downtrodden from the landlords”. In one such poster, put up by Bihar-Jharkhand Special Area Committee of the PLGA at Imamganj and Dumaria of Gaya District of Bihar, had asked the youths, mostly college and school students (including girls), to submit their application between December 2, 2018, and January 2, 2019, and join the armed class struggle against oppressors. They had asked such “interested youths” to attend their foundation day celebrations on December 8, 2018.

During the same 'PLGA Week' 2018, trying to garner support for their own cause, the Maoists had extended their support to then ongoing agitation for setting up of permanent bench of the Orissa High Court in Western Odisha. 'Secretary' of 'Bolangir-Bargarh-Mahasamund Division' of Maoists, Basant Kumar' through an audio tape, had thus stated,

Sadly, for the Maoists their overall strength is on decline. Way back in July 2014, the Government had stated that "as per available reports, the estimated armed cadre strength of the left wing extremist groups is around 8,500". Reports say that the Maoists have been finding it difficult to recruit new people in their fighting ranks. The size of their fighting unit is said to have declined from 6,000 armed insurgents in 2017 to little over 3,500 in 2019.

The above data clearly suggests that the LWEs have failed in their efforts for long to make this ‘week’ more ‘successful’ and ‘eventful’. The last major attack targeting the SFs, during this ‘week’, took place on December 3, 2013, when at least eight SF personnel on patrolling duty were killed in a Maoist attack near Nabinagar in Aurangabad District of Bihar. It is pertinent to recall here that the LWEs main focus during this ‘week’ is on targeting the SFs.

Similarly, the last major attack targeting the civilians, during this week, took place on December 7, 2009, when CPI-Maoist cadres numbering over 50 came on a truck to a market place and started firing indiscriminately killing three persons and injuring many others at Dariani Chapra in Sheohar District of Bihar. Notably, the LWEs have killed at least 733 civilians, since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data, labelling them as ‘police informers’. 20 of them were killed during the ‘PLGA Week’ since 2000. 

Meanwhile, according to a December 8, 2018, report, during the observance of the ‘PLGA Week’, tribal youth from hamlets such as Darakonda and Galikonda in Visakhapatnam District of Andhra Pradesh, came out in large numbers to take out rallies in protest against the attack on cellphone towers by the Maoists. The incident clearly showed that tribal people have lost faith in the Maoists and want development.

Stating that the 'PLGA Week' had no impact in the Agency and Andhra Odisha Border (AOB) areas, Superintendent of Police (SP), Visakhapatnam Rural, Attada Babujee, on December 8, 2018, had thus stated,

LWEs are losing their influence in the strongholds and across the country. Noticeably, overall LWE-linked fatalities have declined. At least 293 persons were killed in LWE-linked violence across the country in 2019, thus far (data till December 13, 2019). These included 93 civilians, 49 SF personnel and 151 Naxalites. During the corresponding period of 2018, such fatalities stood at 410 (107 civilians, 73 SF personnel and 230 Naxalites). There was a total of 412 fatalities (108 civilians, 73 SF personnel, 231 Naxalites) in LWE-linked violence across India in 2018.

Earlier South Asia Intelligence Reviews (SAIRs) have pointed out that the Maoists are struggling to regain their erstwhile areas of dominance, as there are no takers of the Maoist ideology. Taking advantage of the adverse situation faced by the rebels, the Governments - States and Union - and SFs, through coherent and coordinated policy implementation, need to undermine the Maoists influence in their strongholds, for a lasting peace.

NDFB-S: Opportunity for Revival
M.A. Athul
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management

At a time when all the seven states (Assam, Arunachala Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Tripura) of India’s Northeast area engulfed in varying degree of anti-Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) protests, there is a strong fear that major insurgent groups operational in the region may succeed in staging a revival. As the protests are more wide spread and violent in Assam, the danger of revival of major Assam centric insurgent groups, including the Saoraigwra faction of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland-Saoraigwra (NDFB-S), is the most significant.  

The CAA came into force on December 12, 2019, when President Ram Nath Kovind gave his assent and signed the Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB) 2019. CAB was passed by the Lok Sabha (Lower House of Parliament) on December 9 and later by the Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Parliament) on December 11. 

Like all other major insurgent groups of the Northeast, the NDFB-S has gradually lost its prowess, though marginal activities persist. Some of the recent incidents highlighting this include:

November 14: A NDFB-S militant was arrested from Panbari in Nalbari District of Assam after a brief encounter. The arrestee was identified as Santosh Brahma.

November 10: Three NDFB-S militants were arrested from the Chirang District of Assam. The arrestees were identified as Naren Basumatary, Dwhwo Daimary and Sayaram Basumatary. A pistol, four rounds of ammunition and a magazine were recovered from the militants.

October 31: Two NDFB-S militants were killed in an encounter in Kokrajhar District of Assam. An AK series rifle with magazine and unspecified amount of ammunition were recovered from the possession of the slain militants.

September 30-October 1, 2019: Six NDFB-S militants were arrested from Ripu Reserve Forest in the Kokrajhar District of Assam in the intervening night of September 30 and October 1. The arrestees included NDFB-S’ ‘cultural secretary’ and ‘deputy finance secretary’ Bahaigya Basumatary aka Belarwm.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), NDFB-S has lost two cadres in 2019 (all data till December 22, 2019). Another 33 NDFB-S cadres have been arrested and mounting pressure led to the surrender of two cadres. On the other hand, the group failed to inflict a single fatality on Security Force (SF) personnel in the current year. In fact, the last SF fatality involving NDFB-S took place on May 9, 2017, when a Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) Sub-Inspector was killed in a clash near Manas National Park in Chirang District, Assam.

The outfit also failed to inflict any civilian fatality in 2019. The last NDB-S-linked civilian fatality took place on August 18, 2016, when NDFB-S militants killed two civilians at an unspecified location in Chirang District for allegedly extracting extortion money in its name.

NDFB-S was formed  on November 20, 2012, and was considered to be the most lethal outfit in the region till December 2014. During this period, the group was involved in 16 incidents resulting in 151 deaths (146 civilians and five SF personnel). Four of these 16 incidents were major incidents (involving three or more fatalities). Beside the May 1-3, 2014 blood bath in which at least 46 people were killed in Bodoland Territorial Administration Districts (BTAD) and the December 23, 2014, massacre of 69 adivasis (tribals) in Chirang, Sonitpur and Kokrajhar Districts, NDFB-S was involved in other major attacks on civilians including the following: 

January 17, 2014: Six bus passengers were shot dead by NDFB-S militants at Serfanguri in Kokrajhar District.

July 11, 2014: Four traders were abducted from Labdanguri in Baksa District and subsequently killed by NDFB-S militants.

Some of the attacks targeting SFs included:

December 11, 2013: Two SSB personnel were abducted and killed by NDFB-S cadres in Chirag District.

January 28, 2014: Sonitpur Additional Superintendent of Police (ASP-Security), Gulzar Hussain, and a ‘police informer’ were killed and five Constables were injured in an attack by NDFB-S militants at Thalola in Sonitpur District of Assam.

After the December 23, 2014, carnage, SFs launched Operation All Out  on December 26, 2014. By June 2018, according to an unnamed defence spokesman 18 NDFB-S militants were killed and 539 Over Ground Workers (OGWs) were arrested during the operation. There is no further update and also no clarity about the status of the Operation. According to UMHA data, between December 23, 2014, and June 30, 2019, at least 1,152 cadres and linkmen of NDFB-S had been arrested. Moreover, over the same period, 63 militants were neutralized in operations. According to partial data compiled by Institute for Conflict Management, at least two NDFB-S militants have been killed and 27 arrested since June 2019 (data till December 22, 2019), taking the total number to 65 militants killed and 1,179 militants and cadres arrested.

Since the launch of the operation, at least three NDFB-S cadres have surrendered. On March 24, 2019, NDFB-S ‘foreign secretary’ Ne Esera Evangel, along with his body guard ‘lance corporal’ R. Mwnthwr, surrendered in the Mon District of Nagaland. He is the highest-ranking leader of NDFB-S to surrender.

The military operation against NDFB-S has been successful in depleting the operational capabilities of the terror group. Additional to the Operation All out, the joint Indo-Myanmar military operation, codenamed, Operation Sunrise against the insurgent groups, including NDFB-S, which sheltered in Sagaing region of Myanmar has also eroded the cognisance of the insurgent group.

According to an October 1, 2019, report, an unnamed Assam police intelligence official stated that NDFB-S is suspected to have around 20 active cadres in the Bodoland Territorial Area Districts and around 50 cadres in Myanmar, where they still have camps. This indicates a dramatic decline of NDFB-S strength, which was estimated to be 300 to 400 in 2014 and 150 in 2016.

Despite these reverses, the ongoing anti-CAA protests may provide a fillip to their efforts to revive their movement.  A December 2, 2019, report indicated that ‘army chief’ of NDFB-S, G. Bidai, was active along the India-Bhutan Border, and was attempting to get in touch with surrendered NDFB militants to lure them back to its ranks.

On November 30, 2019, Assam Parliamentary Affairs Minister Chandra Mohan Patowary informed the State Assembly that NDFB-S was active in Assam, in addition to the United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I) and Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB).

Earlier, on November 22, 2019, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) extended the ban on NDFB-S by another five years. The UMHA statement extending the ban noted that NDFB-S had been undermining the authority of the government, spreading terror and panic among people, causing carnage and ethnic violence, resulting in killings and destruction of properties of non-Bodos inhabiting the Bodo-dominated areas in Assam.

B. Saoraigwra, the 'president' of NDFB-S, on October 3, 2019, had asserted,

Meanwhile, on December 22, 2019, All Bodo Students Union (ABSU) President Promod Boro stated that ABSU was opposed to CAA and they supported the ongoing anti-CAA agitation in Assam. ABSU was the first articulator of the Bodo cause, demanding a separate state for the Bodos.

Although NDFB-S hasn’t specifically given out any statement against CAA, its sister faction NDFB-Ranjan Daimary (NDFB-RD) had earlier opposed the Bill. On January 22, 2019, the group had taken part in a rally against the then proposed Bill along with another sister faction, the NDFB-Pro-Talks Faction (NDFB-PTF). Both NDFB-PTF and NDFB-R are under cease fire agreements (CFA) with the Government. Earlier, on May 11, 2018, after a meeting attended by United Liberation Front of Asom- Pro-Talks Faction  (ULFA-PTF), Karbi Longri North Cachar Hills Liberation Front (KLNLF), and NDFB-RD, the groups had stated that they were against the introduction of the CAB and warned that they would withdraw from CFA if the CAB was passed.

Although the NDFB-S has been defanged and rendered a meagre shadow of its previous self, the ongoing anti-CAA protests have the potential to jeopardise the gains made by SFs at a considerable cost in blood and treasure. With the Union Government’s actions setting a stage for a resurgence of the narrative of 1980’s, when many ethnic insurgent groups were initially founded, there is a strong possibility of groups like NDFB-S ramping up their recruitment to make a strong comeback.