South Asia Terrorism Portal
Impending Folly Ajit Kumar Singh Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management
On February 29, 2020, the United States (US) and the Afghan Taliban inked a comprehensive peace agreement (CPA) paving the way for withdrawal of “all military forces of the United States, its allies, and Coalition partners, including all non-diplomatic civilian personnel, private security contractors, trainers, advisors, and supporting services personnel within 14 months following announcement of this agreement”. There were 16,551 foreign troops from 38 countries , including 8,000 US troops, in Afghanistan as on February 29, 2020.
Expectedly, the euphoria around the self-proclaimed US success in signing the deal has faced a major jolt even before the ink was dry. The text of the four-point agreement declares, “the United States is committed to start immediately to work with all relevant sides on a plan to expeditiously release upto 5,000 prisoners of the Taliban and up to one 1,000 prisoners of the other side by March 10, 2020.” And further, “the Taliban will start intra-Afghan negotiations with Afghan sides on March 10, 2020.” However, Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani’s asserted, on March 1, 2020,
On March 3, 2020, a member of the Taliban negotiation team, Mohammad Suhail Shaheen, countered, “the Afghan government will have to meet the prerequisite of release of 5,000 Taliban prisoners, or else intra-Afghan negotiations will be delayed”.
It is useful to recall that, on February 12, 2020, before the inking of the CPA, the US and Taliban had negotiated a proposal for a seven-day reduction in violence. The seven-day reduction in violence (RIV) understanding came into force in the night of February 21, 2020. According to the Afghanistan Ministry of Interior Affairs, at least 30 persons, including 21 security force (SF) personnel and nine civilians, were killed in 12 provinces and another 49 persons were wounded during the seven-day RIV plan. According to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), there were a total of 3,403 civilian deaths in 2019, averaging 65 civilian deaths per week, suggesting a clear decline in fatalities during the RIV period. Meanwhile, the Taliban ‘spokesman’ Zabihullah Mujahid on March 2, 2020, declared,
The Taliban since then has claimed at least 99 attacks resulting in 274 deaths in just the SF category (data till March 8, 2020). Disconcerted by the escalation, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on March 5, 2020, stated that “the upsurge in violence in parts of Afghanistan over the last couple days is unacceptable and urged that “violence must be reduced immediately for the peace process to move forward”.
Even before the signing of the deal, through 2019 and in preceding years, the Taliban had made known that it had grown stronger than ever before. In fact, as per the UNAMA report, there were a total of 10,392 civilian casualties (3,403 deaths and 6,989 injuries) in 2019 in addition to 10,994 civilian casualties (3,803 deaths and 7,191 injuries) in 2018. This was the sixth straight year that civilian casualties had crossed the figure of 10,000, and deaths alone exceeded 3,000. Further, the report observed, the Taliban was responsible for 47 per cent of casualties in 2019: 1,301 deaths and 3,603 injuries. In 2018, 37 per cent of the total casualties were attributed to the Taliban: 1,348 deaths and 2,724 injuries. The Taliban was also dominating wider areas than it did earlier. According to the last official data available, as on October 22, 2018, at least 50 districts were under the Taliban control/influence. Though the Resolute Support Mission, which was previously providing official data, has stopped publishing data since, according to the Long War Journal, the Taliban is now in control of 74 districts out of a total of 398 Districts in the country.
Indeed, there was nothing on the ground to suggest that the current situation was in any way propitious for the US to go ahead with its present ‘peace deal’. This has been borne out by developments both before and immediately following the signing of the agreement, which, on available evidence, is unlikely to help improve the security situation in Afghanistan. US tall claims in this regard can only cater to the panicked demands of Donald Trump’s domestic audience, and help the incumbent retain power through the November 2020 Presidential elections.
In the meantime, the other major terror outfit operating in Afghanistan, the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP), though weakened, still remains a major threat. Indeed, according to the UNAMA report, IS-KP was responsible for 1,223 civilian casualties (309 deaths, 914 injured), i.e., 12 per cent of the total casualties recorded in 2019. In 2018, IS-K was responsible for 2,181 civilian casualties (681 deaths and 1,500 injured), 20 per cent of all casualties. In the worst attack of the current year targeting civilians, so far, the Islamic State, on March 6, 2020, killed 30 civilians and injured another 42 in capital Kabul.
While the security situation in the country remain grim, internal political differences continues to grow. The incumbent Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Abdullah Abdullah, who has not accepted the Independent Election Commission (IEC)’s February 18, 2020, decision to declare incumbent President Ghani the winner in the September 2019 Presidential Elections, has decided to form his own Government. "Our team, based on clean and biometric votes, is the victor and we declare our victory. The fraudsters are the shame of history and we announce our inclusive government," Abdullah declared after the IEC’s announcement. Later, on March 7, 2020, Abdullah’s spokesman Fraidoon Khwazoon, stated that "we've sent the invitation to all national and international organisations and all necessary preparations have been take." The inauguration ceremony of both sides scheduled to be held in the morning of March 9, 2020, had, at the time of writing, been postponed to a later time. "The swearing-in ceremony... will be held in the afternoon," Ghani's spokesman Sediq Sediqqi tweeted on March 9, hours after a similar announcement by Abdullah’s Team. Reports indicate that US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad was engaged in “serious negotiation with the Abdullah team” at the time of writing. It is pertinent to recall that a similar situation had emerged in the wake of the 2014 Presidential Elections and a US brokered deal had led to the formation of the National Unity Government.
Afghanistan has, once again, been pushed to a critical juncture. Taliban violence and influence is surging even as political instability augments. Meanwhile, after spending over 18 years in Afghanistan, the US – the source and principal architect of Afghanistan’s misfortunes – is in no mood to stay on to repair the harm it has done, despite realizing the impending and potentially disastrous consequences of an untimely withdrawal. Asked if the Taliban could eventually seize power from the current US-backed Government, Donald Trump conceded, it was "not supposed to happen that way but it possibly will," and added, "We can't be there for the next 20 years. We've been there for 20 years and we've been protecting the country but we can't be there for the next… eventually, they're going to have to protect themselves."
While the present phase of political instability is likely to be resolved sooner rather than later, the probabilities of a complete withdrawal of foreign troops still seem to be low. A strong possibility of the February 29, 2020, deal falling flat exists, with the US being forced to remain engaged in Afghanistan. However, if a complete withdrawal does in fact, take place, it is unlikely that the Taliban will allow the elected Government to remain in power for long.
Madhya Pradesh: Low Burn Indrajit Sharma Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On February 24, 2020, a Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadre was injured in an exchange of fire between Security Forces (SFs) and Maoists during a Forces’ combing operation in the forests of Kosam Dehi under Behla Police Station limits in the Balaghat District of Madhya Pradesh (MP). This is the only Maoist-linked incident reported in the State in 2020, thus far (data till March 8). During the corresponding period in 2019, no Maoist-linked incident was reported.
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the State recorded three incidents of killing resulting in four fatalities (two civilians and two Maoists) through 2019, as compared to one incident of killing resulting in one fatality (Maoist) in 2018. Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on Left Wing Extremism (LWE), 2019 saw the second highest number of overall fatalities recorded in the State in a year. The previous high of fatalities (two civilians and three SF personnel) was recorded way back in 2000. The number of incidents of killings in both 2000 and 2019 were the same, three.
The State recorded two civilian killings in two separate incidents in 2019, as against no fatality in this category in 2018. Worryingly, out of seven incidents of killing recorded in the State during this over-20-year period, five have occurred since 2016: two in 2016, one in 2017, none in 2018 and two in 2019.
While no fatality was recorded in the SF category in 2019, two Maoists were killed in one incident. The last SF fatality was reported on September 22, 2010, when the Maoists killed a trooper of the Hawk Force (special anti-Naxal force of MP Police) near Sitapala village in Balaghat District.
Since March 6, 2000, fatalities in both these categories stand at four each. These fatalities occurred in six separate encounters. There were another 10 exchanges of fire between the two sides in this period, without any casualty. These figures indicate a low level of combat between SFs and Maoists in the State where the Maoists, despite their best of efforts, have never had a strong presence.
SFs arrested two Maoists in 2019, in addition to 13 in 2018. 66 Maoists have been arrested in the State since March 6, 2000. Though no Maoist surrendered in 2019, 15 Maoists have reportedly surrendered in the State since March 6, 2000 – seven in 2000, seven in 2004 and one in 2013.
Although Maoist activities, as suggested by other parameters, demonstrate the rebel presence in the State from time and to time, they have never been very significant. No incident of arson was reported in 2019. The State recorded a total of six such incidents since March 6, 2000, the last of which was reported in 2016. Similarly, no incident of explosion was recorded in 2019. Since March 6, 2000, the Maoists have triggered just three blasts in the State, one each in 2000, 2001 and 2003.
However, the Maoists have continued their practice of calling for bandhs (total shut down) in the State. One such call was made for a one-day Balaghat District bandh on September 18, 2019. The bandh call was given to garner support from the people. The Maoists put up banners and posters and appealed villagers to join the People’s Liberation Guerrilla Army (PLGA), the CPI-Maoist armed wing.
Significantly, all the fatalities in 2019 were recorded from just one District, Balaghat. Similarly, the fatality in 2018 was recorded from Balaghat as well. Of 15 fatalities recorded in the State since March 6, 2000, 12 have been in Balaghat alone. The remaining three fatalities were reported from Jagdalpur (one SF) and Konta (two civilians). Both Jagdalpur and Konta were part of Madhya Pradesh till the formation of the State of Chhattisgarh on November 1, 2000. Jagdalpur is now in the Bastar District and Konta in the Sukma District of Chhattisgarh.
Reports indicate that 30 SF personnel were killed by the Naxalites [Left Wing Extremists] in Balaghat District alone, between 1991 and 1998. 15 civilians were also killed in the District during the same period. Clearly, Balaghat has been the epicenter of Naxal activities in the State.
Besides Balaghat, LWE violence has been reported in Mandla. According to data provided in the Lok Sabha (Lower House of India’s Parliament) by G. Kishan Reddy, the Minister of State in the Ministry of Home Affairs, on June 25, 2019, two Districts of Madhya Pradesh – Balaghat and Mandla – are LWE-affected, along with 58 other Districts from seven States across the country [Andhra Pradesh (two); Bihar (10); Chhattisgarh (12); Jharkhand (18); Maharashtra (two); Odisha (12); and Telangana (two)].
Balaghat, along with Mandla, is also listed among the 90 Districts in 11 States identified as LWE-affected by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) on February 5, 2019.
The strategic location of these two districts – Balaghat and Mandla – make them significant in the Maoists’ operational scheme. While Mandla shares borders with the Kabeerdham District of Chhattisgarh, Balaghat shares borders with both Kabeerdham and Rajnandgaon in Chhattisgarh, as well as with the Bhandara and Gondia Districts of Maharashtra. Both Bhandara and Gondia, further, share borders with the Gadchiroli District of Maharashtra, one of the worst Maoist-affected Districts in the country. Balaghat and Mandla also share borders with each other.
Dindori is another District where the Maoist presence is felt. On July 3, 2019, V. K. Singh, Director General of Police (DGP), Madhya Pradesh, disclosed that LWE movement had been reported in Balaghat, Mandla and Dindori. He added that Naxalites were trying to create a corridor to Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Nepal.
A March 2, 2020, report indicates that Maoists are engaged in developing a new ‘base area’ in the dense Amarkantak Forest, to operate in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh (MMC). The Amarkantak Forest lies at a location where the Vindhya, Maikal and Satpura ranges converge in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Over the past few years, the Maoists have increased their presence in the region. In this regard, an unnamed senior Indian Police Service (IPS) officer remarked;
An earlier report indicated that a ‘Maoist Vistaar (extension) corridor’ was being planned by CPI-Maoist, from the Kawardha District of Chhattisgarh to Amarkantak in the Anuppur District of Madhya Pradesh. Two platoons – Vistaar Platoon-1 and Vistaar Platoon-2 – of the CPI-Maoist’s ‘Kawardha-Balaghat (KB) Division’ were working on the plans to establish the ‘corridor’ via Dindori, Balaghat and Mandla Districts in Madhya Pradesh. Significantly, three Dalams (armed squad) – the Tanda, Darrekasa and Malajkhand Dalams – have already been active in Balaghat District for around a decade under the CPI-Maoist ‘Rajnandgaon-Gondia-Balaghat (RGB) Division’. The Maoists have evidently taken advantage of the bordering dense forests in the State under MMC to seek safety and mount operations.
Moreover, according to an unnamed State Intelligence Bureau (SIB) official, the ‘Vistaar Dalam of MMC zone’ was active in the forests of Amarkantak, and its numbers are sizeable. Most of the cadres are recruited from south Bastar (in Chhattisgarh) and a document seized from Maoists in December 2019 suggested that there were about 200 Maoist cadres in the ‘MMC Zone’.
Identifying the problem in the region, on August 26, 2019, Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Kamal Nath urged the Central Government to clear proposals for road projects and residential schools in the two Districts (Balaghat and Mandla).
Meanwhile, according to Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data (as on January 1, 2019), at least 59 Police Stations did not have wireless/mobile connectivity out of 1,117 Police Stations in the State. The sanctioned strength for the States’ Police is 128,287, but 101,751 personnel were in position, yielding a vacancy of 26,536, i.e. 20.68 per cent. Further, the sanctioned strength of the apex IPS Officers in the State is 305, but just 261 officers were in position, with 44 posts vacant, considerably weakening the executive supervision of the Force. The Police-population ratio in Madhya Pradesh, at 126.12 per 100,000, is significantly lower than the national average of 158.22, which itself remains substantially lower than the minimum of 220:100,000 regarded as desirable for 'peacetime policing'. Furthermore, the Police-area ratio (number of Policemen per 100 square kilometres) for Madhya Pradesh is 33.01, as against the sanctioned strength of 41.62. The all-India ratio is 62.88, as against a sanction of 78.95 per 100 square kilometres. These critical security gaps in capacities and deployment in the State need urgent attention.
The continued efforts of the Maoists to create new passages and corridors, avoiding direct confrontations with SFs, constitute a significant future risk, despite the failure of the Maoists to inflict significant current harm. Coordinating strategy and operations with neighboring States, in tandem with the Central Government’s support, will be necessary to ensure that this threat is not realized.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia March 2-8, 2020
Civilians
Security Force Personnel
Terrorists/Insurgents
Total
INDIA
Jammu and Kashmir
Left Wing Extremism (LWE)
Chhattisgarh
INDIA (Total)
Attacks by Taliban militants decreasing, says Ministry of Interior: Afghan Ministry of Interior (MoI) has stated that the total number of incidents attacks by Taliban militants are decreasing. However, the numbers were not specified by officials, Tolo News received notifications of three attacks, in Kapisa, Laghman and Farah Provinces, on March 5 as compared to 11 such incident declared by MOI on March 4. Tolo News, March 5, 2020.
Peace process going forward despite setbacks, US Secretary of State Michel Pompeo: United States (US) Secretary of State Michael Pompeo on March 5 called the violence of the last couple of days "unacceptable," but the US would continue to push the peace process forward. He mentioned that he has seen senior Taliban leadership working hard in past incidents to reduce violence, and mentioned the recent calls between President Donald Trump and Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the deputy leader of the Taliban. Tolo News, March 5, 2020.
646 incidents of ceasefire violations along IB, LoC till February 23; says Minister of State for Defence Shripad Naik: There were a total of 646 incidents of ceasefire violations along the Indo-Pakistan International Border (IB) as well as the Line of Control (LoC) between January 1 and February 23 this year, Minister of State for Defence Shripad Naik said on March 4. The New Indian Express, March 5, 2020.
81 Naxals killed, 350 surrendered since January 2019 in Chhattisgarh; says State Home Minister Tamradhwaj Sahu: Chhattisgarh Home Minister Tamradhwaj Sahu, on March 4, informed the State Assembly that 81 Naxals (Left Wing Extremists, LWE) have been killed in encounters with Security Forces (SFs) since January 1, 2019. Replying to a question raised by former Chief Minister (CM), Raman Singh, Sahu said, "81 Naxals have been killed in encounters with Security Forces since January 1, 2019." ANI, March 7, 2020.
195 stone pelting, 48 militant incidents post August 5, 2019, in Jammu and Kashmir; says Union Minister of State for Home G. Kishan Reddy: There were 195 incidents of stone pelting in Kashmir Valley post abrogation of Article 370, Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) said on March 5, reports Kashmir Age. Replying to a question in Parliament about the details of stone pelting and militant attack cases reported in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) in 2018 and 2019 after abrogation of Article 370, Union Minister of State for Home, G. Kishan Reddy said 802 incidents of stone pelting were reported in 2018. Kashmir Age, March 6, 2020.
300 new recruits join NSCN-IM: As many as 300 new recruits joined Naga Army of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM) on March 4. According to the official report, the recruits have been undergoing training for the last four months at its ‘training headquarters’. East Mojo, March 5, 2020.
Security situation in northeast has improved, states Union Minister of State for Home: Union Minister of State for Home, G. Kishan Reddy said in Rajya Sabha (Upper House of India Parliament) that the security situation in the northeast had improved since 2014 and there had been a 78 per cent decline in casualties in the security forces. He stated, “Compared to 2013, there has been 70 per cent reduction in insurgency incidents, 80 per cent in civilian deaths and 78 per cent in security forces’ casualties in 2019”. As many as 1,824 insurgents surrendered between 2014 and 2019. The Telegraph, March 5, 2020.
Bodo peace accord to bring in permanent peace, states Assam Finance Minister: Assam Finance Minister Himanta Biswa Sharma on March 6 stated in the Assembly that memorandum of settlement signed on January 27 among all factions of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), All Bodo Students Union (ABSU), United Bodo Peoples Organisation (UBPO) is expected to bring permanent peace to the region and end militancy. The Minister also added that two new autonomous councils for Moran and Mattak communities shall also be created in the near future. The Assam Tribune, March 8, 2020.
IS using Delhi riot images for radicalization: Terror outfits like Islamic State (IS) are utilising Delhi riot images to lure youths towards radicalisation and headhunting. According to security agencies, encrypted chat rooms, Telegram, WhatsApp and DarkNet have become mode to exhort youth to pick up gun and join Jihad. The image of a Muslim man being violently attacked during the Delhi riots was highlighted recently by an Indian subcontinent focused Islamic State-aligned media unit on encrypted chat network. India Today,March 3, 2020.
50 Pakistani fighters killed in Turkish strikes in Syria: At least 50 Pakistani fighters have been killed in military action by the Turkish Army and Syrian forces in Syria’s last major rebel stronghold in the northwest of the country. Fighting has escalated dramatically in recent days in Idlib in northwest Syria, where Turkey has sent thousands of troops and military vehicles in the last month to counter Syrian government forces’ advances in the last remaining bastion held by rebels. The deceased likely belong to Zainebiyoun Brigade, a militant group that was placed on the US Treasury’s financial blacklist in January 2019 and comprises Pakistani Shias fighting in Syria and Iran. Pakistan Today, March 9, 2020.
Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances disposed 4,476 cases: The Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances (COIED) on March 3 disposed of 4,476 cases by February 29, out of a total of 6,556 cases registered by January 31. According to an official handout issued, a total of 6,556 cases were received by the commission up to January 2020 and 48 more cases were registered by the commission in January – raising the total number of cases to 6,604. The commission disposed of 42 cases in February 2020 and thus total disposal of missing persons up to February 29 is 4,476 and balance as on February 29 is 2,128. Pakistan Today, March 4, 2020.
President dissolves Parliament paving way for snap General Election: President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, dissolved the 8th Parliament on March 2, paving the way for a snap General Election. The five-year term of the 8th Parliament was due to expire in August. According to the Gazette notification, the General Election is to be held on April 25 and the new Parliament is to meet on May 14. The respective Returning Officers will accept nominations for the General Election from March 12-March 19. According to the Constitution, the President is required to convene the new parliament on a date not later than three months after the date of dissolution of Parliament. Daily News, March 3, 2020.
The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.
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